Nick Nelson

For all the buzz he built up during spring training, it didn’t take long for Aaron Hicks to sour the widespread enthusiasm surrounding him. We’re barely over a week into the season and already we’re seeing calls for the rookie center fielder to be shipped to the minors, or at least the bottom of the lineup. In fairness, Hicks has done his part. Through eight games, he has been flat-out overmatched, [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] with two hits, two walks and 13 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. He torched opposing pitchers during exhibition play, but ever since the games started mattering and hurlers stepped it up, Hicks has looked utterly confounded by big-league stuff. With his reputation for seeing lots of pitches and taking good at-bats in the minors (a trait that was certainly on display in spring training) the Twins had hoped that Hicks would set a strong example with his approach in the lead-off spot. Instead, he has frequently appeared to have no plan whatsoever at the plate, slumping back to the dugout dejectedly after being blown away by vicious heaters and benders the likes of which he’s never seen before. He’s clearly overwhelmed, which may seem like a good enough reason to get him to Triple-A so he can regain some confidence and straighten himself out. If things haven’t changed by the time we get into May, it will be a perfectly justifiable decision, carrying the added benefit of delaying his service clock and buying an extra year of team control. But we simply haven’t reached that point yet. We’re less than 10 games into the season and as bad as Hicks has been over these 32 plate appearances, we’re still talking about 32 plate appearances. If the Twins were going to give him the opportunity to jump from Double-A straight to the majors, they need to at least give him a chance to work through some initial struggles and adjust. At this juncture, the team’s outcomes take a backseat to the player’s development, and while I’m not saying that a trip to Rochester wouldn’t necessarily be the best thing for Hicks, there’s no way to know that yet. He needs time. The same goes for other youngsters who have stumbled out of the gates, such as Brian Dozier and Liam Hendriks. The way players get better is through reps and experience, not through being jerked around and demoted based on short stretches of poor performance. The last thing the Twins need to is to repeat their 2012 handling of Chris Parmelee, who shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors, dominating one level and looking flummoxed (in sporadic playing time) at the other. Looking back, did we really learn anything about Parmelee last year? The month of April is for evaluation. When May and June roll around, then the talk can begin about taking actions based on a more meaningful set of data. For now, the best approach is the one Ron Gardenhire took on Tuesday night with scuffling Hicks and Dozier: give them a day off to clear their heads, then get them back out there the next night (as I suspect they will be).

Since starting pitching was obviously going to be an unavoidable weakness, the Minnesota Twins knew they would need exceptional efforts from both the offense and bullpen in order to maintain a respectable record this season. We're only a week in, but thus far, both units have answered the call. In their 4-2 start, the Twins have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense and the relievers have been outstanding outside of one implosion (or Chris Davis explosion) that led to Friday's loss. Across Minnesota's four victories, the bullpen has delivered 13 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing only seven hits. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The meltdown on Friday was painful, but that was simply a poorly pitched game all around, with Liam Hendriks setting the tone by failing to last through the fifth. Outside of that hiccup, the relief corps has been absolutely phenomenal, and easily the Twins' biggest difference-maker in a fast start. That group received another boost over the weekend, when Tyler Robertson – who served up the grand slam that accounts for almost the entirety of damage inflicted against the Twins' bullpen this year – was bumped to Rochester to make room for Anthony Swarzak. I've noticed that Swarzak doesn't garner much fanfare. Maybe it's because of his unglamorous role, or maybe it's because of his failures as a starter. But the guy has proven to be an asset in the bullpen. As a reliever over the past two seasons he has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Those are hardly spectacular numbers, but then you have to consider everything else he brings. He's been remarkably durable, frequently pitching multiple innings at a time and always available to start in a pinch. He's generally avoided injury, horseplay notwithstanding. And he's a former second round pick with a live fastball who's still only 27. There may be upside in him yet. On Sunday, Swarzak made his first appearance of the season, recording four critical outs in a close game and earning a win. His return improves a bullpen that has already been a smashing success in this young season.

Welcome to the season’s first edition of Three-Bagger. In these occasional columns, I will examine three different ongoing Twins storylines worth following. Today, we’ll take a look at Mike Pelfrey’s remarkable return to the hill, promising early signs from some key hitters in the middle of the lineup and a growing dilemma at the shortstop position. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I wrote earlier this week about the Twins’ low expectations, pointing out that they’ll need to find different ways to engage fans since a competitive record is unlikely. Good stories are always a draw, and to that end, Pelfrey certainly qualifies. On Thursday, Pelf took the mound to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 1st of 2012. Based on my (admittedly non-scientific) research, his is the fastest comeback for a starting pitcher, ever. And unlike most hurlers recovering from the operation, Pelfrey didn’t get the benefit of a minor-league rehab stint. He sharpened up in spring training and dove right in, taking on a potent Tigers lineup at Target Field and performing admirably. The big right-hander threw 96 pitches and worked effectively into the sixth inning. He pitched even better than his numbers suggest, as both runs scored against him were the result of defensive misplays. Pelfrey worked mostly in the high 80s with his fastball, occasionally touching 91 or 92. That’s a step back from his pre-surgery velocity, which sat around 95 mph, but he managed to keep the ball down and induce 13 grounders compared to only four fly balls. It was a very encouraging start to the season for a guy who continues to ignore precedence and handle Tommy John recovery on his own terms. * At one point last year, it seemed like the two big right-handed boppers in the Minnesota lineup – Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe – were going tit for tat in the home run column. That competition trailed off after Plouffe suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him and sabotaged his production late in the season, allowing Willingham to finish with a hefty 35-24 advantage. It looks like the two are restarting the rivalry early this season. Just one inning after Willingham went deep for the first time on Thursday, Plouffe placed a tally in the home run column with a mammoth blast to left. The presence of these two sluggers in the middle of the lineup is a big reason many – including myself – believe the Twins could be a surprisingly potent offensive unit this year. While we’re still waiting for some other hitters amongst that mix to get going, it’s promising to see Willingham and Plouffe warming up the lumber early despite the chilly weather. * I mentioned earlier that Pelfrey was victimized by some shoddy defense in his outing on Thursday. If it becomes a trend, that’s going to be a real problem for the contact-heavy hurler, and the same goes for essentially everyone else in this rotation. Converting chances in the field will be vitally important this year – a big part of the reason that the Twins opted to start all-glove, no-stick shortstop Pedro Florimon. The 26-year-old has been a consistently terrible hitter throughout his career, so he needs to provide a lot of value on the other end to justify his place in the lineup. So his troubles with routine plays during the first series of the season – an extension of what we saw during his audition last season – are quite worrisome. Florimon is tremendously athletic, with quick reflexes and a great arm. He’s proven capable of making special plays. Unfortunately, he also tends to get too casual with non-rushed throws and lapse on plays that should be made. There’s little margin for those sorts of errors when his value is almost entirely vested in his defense. If the trend continues, Ron Gardenhire should not hesitate to make a change. Florimon simply hasn’t done anything to earn a long leash.

"Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he is never disappointed." – Alexander Pope Have you ever gone to see a movie that was hugely hyped, only to walk out of the theater underwhelmed after deeming it just OK? Conversely, another film that was “just OK” might have impressed you if your friends had all told you it was completely awful. Expectations can have an enormous impact on the way we perceive things. Which brings us to this year’s Minnesota Twins.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reality has finally set in for a fan base that was subjected to almost 200 losses over the past two years. Terry Ryan created no illusions of short-term promise with an offseason plan that was clearly not geared toward rapid improvement. What droplets of optimism existed last year around this time – that perhaps 2011 was a fluke, and that with better health the Twins would rebound toward the top of the division – have mostly evaporated. Obviously the lack of hope for this season has led to a dearth of excitement surrounding the product. The lacking buzz was noticeable on Opening Day at Target Field, where patches of empty seats spoke to more than just the chilly weather. I’d describe the current mood of the fan base at large as ambivalent, which is at least a step up from angry. Most who are paying attention can see a clear direction and long-term plan – more than could have been said the last couple years – but acknowledge that the odds of even staying remotely competitive this year are long. If the Twins dig another early hole, the reaction is more likely to be shoulder shrugs than outrage. Simply put: there’s not much room for disappointment with this team. How much worse can it really get? But there’s plenty of room for unexpected outcomes on the other side, and this is where the lowered standards play to the organization’s benefit. Any sort of modest early winning streak will be met with intrigue. If the team comes together after a slow start and begins stringing together some victories in June and July, it will be easy to form (possibly accurate) narratives about a young group beginning to jell. The fact that local ball fans aren’t necessarily too amped up about the current product doesn’t mean they’re not itching for a reason to change that outlook. And therein lies an opportunity for Ron Gardenhire and Co. It won't take a stellar team to reverse the trend of falling attendance. It will simply take a watchable team. If the Twins up being “just OK” this year, most of us are going to be quite pleased. The team should embrace that dynamic, because this will (hopefully) be the last time in a long while that expectations are so low. Perhaps the lessened pressure will prove to be just what this relatively inexperienced group needs.

In many ways, Ron Gardenhire’s present situation reflects the paradox faced by the 2013 Minnesota Twins. After two straight 90-loss campaigns, the long-tenured manager has been put on notice. He enters this season without a contract extension in place.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Several of his assistants have been reassigned or released, and it’s been made clear that his performance will be under stringent evaluation. If we don’t see tangible improvement over the last two miserable years, it’s a good bet that Gardy will be shown the door. It's no secret that the manager is loved and revered by the organization, so they’re not eager to see that happen. They’re also not eager to field a third straight cellar-dweller that struggles to draw fans in the latter part of the season. They’ve been vocal about these things. But actions speak louder than words, and the organization’s actions during the offseason hardly conveyed urgency to impel a sizable step forward in the short term. One year after shedding about $15 million from their payroll, the Twins cut roughly the same amount this winter, passing on the opportunity to meaningfully bolster their beleaguered starting corps and opting instead for cheap, unreliable targets like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. Terry Ryan traded two established, valuable starting outfielders for young pitchers who largely won’t help until further down the line. No moves were made to address weaknesses in the infield or on the bench. ~~~ This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is making available on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. ~~~ Without question, the Twins are in excellent position to return to contention down the line. Their farm system is as strong as it’s been in many years, and the benefit to their frugal approach is that they have almost no contractual obligations beyond this year. That flexibility will allow them to extend successful players as needed and sign free agents to fill holes at the appropriate time, with blockbuster type deals potentially on the table. Of course, none of that does much good for Gardenhire, who probably won’t be here to help usher in the next wave if this thing doesn't get turned around quickly. For him, the “appropriate time” is now (many impatient fans probably feel the same way), and the pressure to get things on track is immense. While I’m willing to believe that his managerial performance won’t be judged solely on wins and losses, another 90-loss season – especially if it includes a familiarly horrendous start – would almost have to spell the end. Luckily Gardenhire, much like his team, is in good position to take people by surprise. Although the Twins will enter the season with as bad a rotation as you’ll find in the league, there are a number of intriguing reinforcements in the wings, such as Scott Diamond, Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson and Rich Harden. Even newly acquired prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May are long shot contenders to make a late-season impact. Whereas the issues for last year’s unit snowballed as injuries and ineptitude piled up, this year the rotation could improve considerably over the course of the campaign. If the Twins can somehow manage to get respectable production from their crop of starting pitchers – admittedly a bit of a stretch, all things considered – they can certainly be a competitive ballclub, albeit not a championship contender. The lineup has a chance to be as good as any in the division, with a pair of (finally) healthy former MVPs anchoring a group that offers plenty of upside. It’s not difficult to envision the Twins being above average offensively at six or seven positions, depending on your level of optimism regarding Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I can’t help but feel like the Twins’ run-scoring potential this year has been widely undersold, even by a general manager who apparently didn’t see fit to provide much help during the offseason. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have the kind of years they’ve shown capable of when not burdened by health issues, while key young cogs like Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe take the next step, the thought of watching those efforts go to waste at the hands of an ill-equipped pitching staff is painful… probably more so for Gardenhire than anybody. In many ways, this is the perfect season to evaluate the manager. He’s got a moderately talented roster with low expectations. It will take every bit of his savvy to steer away from the wreckage of the past two seasons – both on and off the field – and keep this club relevant into the later months. Ultimately, that’s the goal for this Twins team, and while it’s not all that ambitious, I’d see it as a satisfactory outcome in what has plainly been established as a bridge year. The Twins may not be aiming for the World Series, but they need to show progress. They owe that much to fans who have been subjected to the horrors of these last two years. If it doesn’t happen, the responsibility will fall on Gardenhire’s shoulders, whether it’s his fault or not. On the flip side, he’s sure to get the lion’s share of credit if we see significant improvement and a record approaching .500, which in my mind is well within the realm of possibility. I tend to think a manager’s impact in baseball is generally exaggerated, but in this situation, with this collection of arms and this overall level of inexperience, Gardy may have to work harder than ever before. Or, as he would put it, battle his tail off. Because now his tail's on the line. ~~~ Celebrate Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview Ebook. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). You'll find a download link on both channels on Monday.