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Nick Nelson

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  1. When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team. The Twins are aware of this, which is why they locked him up with a $184 million contract back in 2010. When they committed to paying the hometown star $23 million annually for eight years – until he’s 35 – the Twins knew that the best value in the deal was likely to come at the front end. That’s just a natural facet of baseball and pro sports in general[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]; players are at their best around their late 20s and tend to decline as they age into their 30s as athleticism, quickness and durability gradually erode. That’s especially true for a career catcher with a history of leg injuries. None of that means Mauer is bound to turn into a pumpkin any time soon, but as you watch him right now – 30 years old, fully healthy for the first time in years – you’re looking at one of the game’s premier players. We can’t take for granted that he will continue to play at this level forever, especially while remaining at catcher. His unparalleled approach at the plate means he’ll probably be a good hitter until the day he retires, but Mauer simply won’t be able to affect games in the same way if he’s a plodding designated hitter or first baseman. Like it or not, that’s in his future at some point down the line. Despite their strong start to the season, the Twins would probably admit that they’re not currently within a window of contention. It’s in their best interest to enter one sooner rather than later, and while there are various reasons for that, Mauer has to rank near the top of the list. All the talk we heard during the off-season about how the organization should set its sights on competing in 2016 never made any sense; are the Twins supposed to let three potentially great years from one of the best players in franchise history go to waste while waiting for prospects to (we hope) grow into big-league contributors? Fortunately, the rebuilding timeline doesn’t look as daunting as some have feared. In part, that’s because a couple of guys that the Twins expect to be part of their next contending core – Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia – are already getting their feet wet in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are obliterating their current levels and could be on the move more quickly than anticipated. Of course, pitching is the key piece in this equation, and in that department the Twins also seem headed rapidly in the right direction. Newly acquired starter Alex Meyer – who, let’s face it, might be the single most important prospect in the system with the way the organization has put all its pitching eggs in the “potential ace” basket – is off to a torrid start in New Britain with a 1.69 ERA and plenty of strikeouts through three starts. His teammate and fellow new acquisition Trevor May has also flashed some dominance, though his command issues remain. Kyle Gibson has been solid in Triple-A. It seems likely that at least two, and maybe all three, of these young hurlers will get a chance to pitch in the majors at some point this year, putting them in position to fill out a rotation that already likely features one or two quality long-term pieces. Put it all together, knock on some wood, and you’ve got an organization headed toward an ideal scenario: a group of promising young players with a bit of experience surrounding a still prime-aged superstar, with plenty of money available to fill in holes as needed.
  2. I'll grant you that. I think it stems from two things: 1) we've gone through this whole exercise too many times in the past with guys like Marquis, Livan, Ponson, Ortiz, etc; and 2) they left so much money on the table to sign two of the cheapest guys available. I know that, in my case, both those things were contributors. But what really irked me was that I thought the offense and bullpen both had a chance to be pretty good, and that Ryan was doing the rest of the team a real disservice with such a half-assed effort to turn around the rotation. Correia and Pelfrey, in a best-case scenario, will be mediocre inning-eaters. The front office pretty much acknowledged that. Through these first few weeks, that very scenario has played out. The offense and bullpen both look pretty legit. But the Twins have the third-worst starting pitching ERA in the league, and that's with Correia pitching out of his mind. Their strikeout rate is hideous and that won't change soon. They're not going to be able to sustainably play winning baseball with the rotation they've put together. That's what is frustrating. Four good starts from Correia to start the season don't cover up that reality.
  3. Agreed. Gardy has shown some willingness this year to stray from his comfort zone... Mauer batting second, Butera in Triple-A, etc. He deserves a lot of credit for his handling of the bullpen, which has been completely maximized so far. I like the way he's handled Hicks. I like that he hasn't overreacted to Florimon's hot streak by putting him too high in the lineup. From outside, the temperament of the team has seemed much better from the get-go. Not much to complain about.
  4. What are you referring to? There's a difference between making declarations and stating opinions. Actually, if you base your expectations on historical precedent, Correia is basically living right up to his. He's pitched this way in April each of the past two years. Maybe this is the year he's able to keep it rolling but, well, I don't expect it.
  5. I liked several guys. Dempster and Marcum come to mind. But that sort of misses the point. I'm not privvy to the same information that the Twins are and I'm not a major-league evaluator. What ends up being important are the decisions they make, not the hypothetical offseason blueprint I would have put together. There were a lot of starting pitching options out there during the offseason (whether or not there were a lot of good options is certainly debatable), and the Twins elected to sign a pair of pitch-to-contact guys, one of whom was less than a year removed from TJ and one of whom has been terrible throughout most of his career. Conveniently, these two happened to sign a couple of the cheapest major-league contracts of anyone on the market. Then a few guys were added on minor-league deals and they called it a day. For a team that was so unbelievably dreadful in the rotation last year and lost three guys to FA, it was a completely unaggressive approach. To your point, Antony did point out that the team struggled to attract good talent, but from my perspective, the fact that the team has been so bad over the last two years that they're repelling decent players isn't a very good excuse for failing to improve. Quite the opposite. Secondly, while Antony might claim that they were making good reasonable offers and getting turned down, I have my doubts about that based on TR's history. Anyway, I'm as pleased as anyone with the way Correia has pitched thus far and I'm actually somewhat impressed with Pelfrey despite his results because, man, still not a year removed from surgery. But we've already had like three threads of this nature pop up and it's simply too early to draw any kind of conclusions.
  6. And the response to that point is that it's too soon to make such a declaration.
  7. No, but the Twins signed guys who were widely viewed as being at the bottom of the free agent barrel, as evidenced by their relative price tags. So the question is whether TR outfoxed the rest of the league by buying low on the likes of Correia and Pelfrey, or should have spent to acquire more highly regarded arms. The fact that some of those highly regarded arms aren't going to pan out is not a revelation and the fact that some have been bad/injured early isn't surprising (nor particularly noteworthy). In time we'll be able to judge all of these pitchers and decide whether or not the "massive angst" was warranted but April 23rd certainly isn't that time.
  8. I think this was obvious, wasn't it? Everyone knew that not each free agent pitcher was going to pan out, particularly considering the number of question marks surrounding many, but it was incumbent upon the Twins' evaluators to pick the right ones. After three starts, yes, the Correia decision looks savvy, but that's essentially meaningless. I still feel highly confident that many of the other FA options will ultimately prove to be far better values. Also, even with Correia's strong start the Twins' SP corps still ranks 26th in MLB in ERA, so I'm not going to trip over myself crediting Ryan for overhauling the unit just yet.
  9. Those are some pretty frank comments from Anderson. I feel like it's rare that you see him critique one of his own pitchers so openly. Pelfrey's location will be worth following tonight.
  10. Yep. We get it dude. But thanks for restating it three times. Fortunately, it seems like plenty of people did get the point, and I've enjoyed most of the banter that actually relates to the topic. Interesting observation. Wonder if this is something Brunansky has been working with him on. It sounded like he had some very specific ideas about what needed fixing.
  11. Yes. Many fans hate rainouts, especially when they're traveling to see a game & plans are affected.
  12. Burton has had so many problems with that shoulder I wouldn't screw with it much. The way they're using him has worked out pretty well so far. However, this increases the urgency to keep Fien around. Only other RH you can trust much in the late innings.
  13. To me, Escobar has looked like the better defender thus far, and that's a lot more meaningful to me than their inflated early hitting lines. With a pitching staff that will create plenty of GB opportunities, I'll take the sure-handed guy who you can trust to convert anything hit in his area. I don't necesarily think it's time to cut bait on Florimon yet (though I'd start feeding Escobar semi-regular starts, as Gardy is doing) but I also think the leash should be very, very short. He's done nothing to earn a long one.
  14. When did I dismiss anyone's argument? I put this article up because I was interested in seeing other viewpoints on Hicks' shifting plate approach and I've enjoyed reading the takes on the thread. Geez, some of you folks are just determined to pick a fight on every topic.
  15. I tend to agree with this. They seem to be having a hard time finding places to use Pressly, as he's not a long reliever and they don't trust him yet in high-lev situations. If anyone should be in danger of losing a spot it's him.
  16. Reliever Tim Wood, who was apparently in line to make the 25-man roster before suffering an injury late in spring training, tossed another scoreless frame in his second rehab stint at Rochester on Monday night. He's getting close and the Twins are going to have to make a decision soon. This makes me a little nervous. The bullpen has been insane so far, with a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The unit has easily been the team's biggest difference-maker in this surprising start. Every member has been performing fairly well. Who do you remove from the mix to make room for Wood (who, by the way, is nothing special)? The name I keep hearing is Casey Fien, because he's out of options, but I think he's looked pretty good so far. Got to imagine Pressly's not going anywhere. Personally, I say you send Wood to Rochester and let him hit waivers. Wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't claimed. Your thoughts?
  17. It's been an historically bizarre month weather-wise, and not just in MN. People are overreacting. There were no noticeable weather issues over the first three years at Target Field and there probably won't be over the next three. Rainouts are part of baseball.
  18. I'm not being defensive. I just feel don't feel like arguing semantics. Why don't you find the things within the post that resonate with you (as you said, the Bruno comp and the underlying numbers in his recent games) and explore them a little more, rather than spending all this time nitpicking every single word? Each instance you just brought up can (and was intended to) mean something a lot more banal than you inflect. I called the hit a slump-buster because that's literally what it was. It ended a streak of 23 straight hitless at-bats. I'm sorry you found the positive wording about a 23YO rookie who seems to be pulling himself out of the mud confusing. I like what I'm seeing so it's reflected in the writing, as is generally the case.
  19. "There's been a visible and dramatic improvement in his previously broken plate approach, and if he can keep it up, his slump-busting RBI single will only be the start of a full-fledged turnaround." Pretty amazing that you're able to come away with such a blatant misinterpretation when it's spelled out so clearly right at the end. There were no conclusive statements of any kind made in the column. The season is 15 games old -- everything is a small sample right now. That goes without saying. That doesn't mean we can't analyze trends and share observations. I think K/BB ratio is a pretty important indicator for a hitter, especially for a 23YO rookie whose game is built on plate discipline. For him to go from 20K/3BB in his first 46 PA to 1K/6BB in his most recent 14 is pretty stark, and considering the way it coincided with his drop in the batting order and the quotes about Brunansky, I thought it was worth commenting on. Looks to me like the start of something good. Nothing more. We can debate how meaningful it is that he's taking better at-bats (that was kind of the point of the article) but there's no debating that he's taking better at-bats.
  20. On the one hand, I understand what people are saying when they suggest that the increased walks are a sign Hicks is being overly passive at the plate, which isn't exactly a change from his first couple weeks when he would stand in there and just watch pitches go by with little interest in finding one to drive. On the other hand, the fact that he's walking at such a high rate indicates that the pitches he's laying off of aren't in the strike zone. It's not like he's sitting up there with the bat on his shoulder watching strike three repeatedly. He's taking what pitchers are giving him and getting on base. He's showing much better recognition and laying off borderline pitches with two strikes. That's a very meaningful development. Right now pitchers are throwing enough balls that he's able to coax walks, but that's going to change. Given his sub-.100 batting average, pitchers are going to start attacking. Will he be able to take advantage and start mounting some legitimate numbers? If he continues with his current approach, absolutely. The guy had a top 5 OPS in the Eastern League last year, it's not like he can't hit.
  21. Would seem that approach has not been working very well over the past week since he's been getting on base at like a .500 clip, no?
  22. The headline suggested that he might be "shaping up" as a success story. It's an early analysis of a promising trend that I've noticed. I thought I was pretty clear about that, with the hopes of avoiding pointless discussions of semantics. Obviously the hits haven't started coming yet but if he continues to take quality at-bats, they will.
  23. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1605-Hicks-Shaping-Up-As-Bruno-Success-Story
  24. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3834[/ATTACH]On April 13th at Target Field, Aaron Hicks went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, dropping his batting average to .047. It was the seventh time in 10 major-league games that he'd notched multiple strikeouts, and in total the rookie had whiffed in a whopping 43 percent of his plate appearances. With the season two weeks old, even Hicks' most staunch supporters were facing the reality that his struggles amounted to more than a mere slump. He was overwhelmed and his issues at the plate were compounding rather than clearing. At this point the Twins had begun feeling pressure to make a move of some kind ("I'll let you know when we do that," Ron Gardenhire told an inquiring reporter, "so you don't have to ask every day anymore"), and surely they were weighing their options. Ultimately, they decided to stick with Hicks, albeit while sliding him down in the batting order, and it sounds like the decision was heavily influenced by another ambitious rookie -- first-year hitting coach Tom Brunansky. When Gardenhire told Pioneer Press reporter Mike Berardino of the decision to keep Hicks around, Berardino inferred that "Brunansky lobbied hard to keep working with [Hicks]." Said Gardenhire: "Talking with Brunansky, his feeling is he wants to work with this kid. He believes he can get him right. I'm with Tom." That's pretty bold for Bruno, who's still in his first few weeks on the job as a major-league hitting coach. Hicks appeared totally lost in the woods, which is not necessarily shocking for a 23-year-old straight out of Double-A, prompting many to believe he should spend some time in Rochester. Of course, Brunansky knows a little bit about fast rises. In his playing career, he rocketed through the minors and was an effective full-time big-leaguer by the age of 21. His coaching career has followed a similarly steep ascent; he rejoined the Twins organization as a rookie-league hitting instructor in 2010, and has climbed from there to Double-A to Triple-A to the majors within a span of three years. Perhaps, through that experience, Brunansky can offer some perspective to the discombobulated Hicks. Whatever they're doing right now, it seems to be helping. In four games since the three-strikeout performance against the Mets, the center fielder has drawn six walks, and he hadn't struck out until fanning on a full count in his fourth trip on Sunday. There's been a visible and dramatic improvement in his previously broken plate approach, and if he can keep it up, his slump-busting RBI single will only be the start of a full-fledged turnaround. Presently he's still hitting .059, but Hicks is seeing the ball better, working into favorable counts and heading to the box with more confidence. If sustained, those trends will lead to a rapid rise in his batting average. With a little help, he seems to be finding his way.
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