Nick Nelson

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1754-Twins-Take-a-Hard-Turn-With-Deduno

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4138[/ATTACH]Even before his three-hit shutout on Sunday, I felt that the time had come to promote Kyle Gibson to major leagues. The Twins seemingly positioned themselves to do so Monday when they announced the removal of Pedro Hernandez from the rotation, opening up Friday's start for the taking. But on Tuesday the club ended any such speculation by informing that Samuel Deduno will be the one to get the nod. Even as a confirmed Gibsonite, I can't feign to be overly upset with this move. Because more than I wanted to see the top prospect get a chance, I wanted to simply see the Twins make some sort of change to their stagnating formula. Deduno qualifies in a major way; a step in the exact opposite direction. The trademark of Minnesota's rotation was obvious before the season even began. This was a group that was going to throw the ball over the plate and allow tons of contact. Certainly the starting corps has lived up that expectation, as they've allowed fewer walks than all but one AL team and they rank last in strikeouts by a country mile. Unsurprisingly, this makeup has yielded terrible results as Twins starters have accrued the second-worst ERA in the majors at 5.42. Last year the rotation finished with a 5.40 ERA. The bar was set incredibly low and they've still come up short. For the first six weeks of the season, the Twins managed to stay afloat in spite of their shortcomings, thanks in large part to some timely hitting and sterling efforts from the bullpen. But recently, with other units beginning to falter, the rotation's warts have become more exposed as the season has quickly begun to spiral out of control. The Twins have lost seven straight and are in the early stage of their toughest stretch to date; 15 of 20 games on the road, including trips to Atlanta, Detroit and Washington. Change was long overdue, and Hernandez was a logical starting point given that he probably shouldn't have been starting in the majors to begin with. While Gibson would have been my first choice, Deduno was the next one on my list. The 29-year-old Dominican has intrigued me since last season, when he came up and enjoyed a run of success for the Twins. Since then, he has made a name for himself by helping carry his native country to an impressive title run in the World Baseball Classic. I'll admit that perhaps I overrate the significance of this event because I was watching it live and was riveted, but Deduno's performance in that tournament's championship game earned him an extended shot in my mind. Pitching against a potent lineup, in the pouring rain, in a game that mattered immensely to him and his teammates, the erratic yet effective righty delivered five dominant innings, standing out in a 3-0 victory. A groin injury suffered while toughing out those conditions sidelined Deduno and cost him his chance at an Opening Day roster spot with the Twins, but since returning to the field he's been back to his old tricks. In three starts at Rochester, he posted a 2.70 ERA despite issuing 10 walks in a 16 2/3 innings. In the past I've likened Deduno, whose pitches dart to different locations seemingly at random, to knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Non-conventional pitchers with unique styles. Dickey didn't hit his stride until his mid-30s, so I like the decision to try out Deduno, who turns 30 in a month, and see if he might prove a late bloomer. Certainly there have been some positive signs to that end over the past year. And in any case, it's nice to see the Twins take such a hard turn from their previous path. The pitchers that have comprised their rotation up to this point – Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez – have obviously enjoyed varying levels of success but have been virtually indistinguishable in approach. Change speeds, try and hit your spots, hope for the best. Deduno couldn't be farther on the other end of the spectrum. He unleashes electric heaters and breaking balls that essentially move on their own and end up who-knows-where. The result is very many walks and very little hard contact. When he's going good, he can be nearly unhittable. Even if that "unhittable" comes tagged with a considerable caveat, it's a welcome term for this starting staff.

I thought I heard that the Super 2 arb deadline was now much later in the year, like sometime in July. I believe Gibson would need to stay in the minors much longer than two weeks to reach it. I could be wrong.

Well, projections tend to look bad when made in the midst of a bad losing streak. A week ago they were on pace for 83 wins.

That's not really how pitch velocity works.

Yeah, the velo drop could turn out to be a blessing in disguise because at one point it seemed there was no chance he'd fall to No. 4. Now some people make it sound like he'd be a reach there. I personally am a big fan; I think under the tutelage of pro coaches he will turn into quite a player. But any time a 21-year-old loses several ticks on his FB you've got to wonder about underlying shoulder/elbow issues.

Various reasons. Better pitchers plugged into the rotation, Hicks/Arcia hopefully settling in a bit more, etc.

I hate to say it, but I think things are going to look really bad about a month from now. The Twins are playing some of their worst ball of the season at the moment, and now must head to Atlanta and Detroit, the beginning of a stretch in which they play 15 of 20 on the road. On the bright side, I think they'll have a pretty decent second half and finish short of 90 losses. But I'm bracing for the worst in the short-term.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1742-Twins-MLB-Draft-Profile-Sean-Manaea-SP

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4119[/ATTACH]Who IS This Guy? He might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in this year's draft class. A few years ago Sean Manaea was a raw high school kid with bad grades and no first-round aspirations, but now at age 21 he's in the conversation to become the first lefty pitcher drafted No. 1 overall since David Price in 2007. At 6'5" and 230 lbs, Manaea has the ability to reach the mid-90s from the left side, making him a rare specimen. He has progressed rapidly in three seasons at Indiana State University, adding new pitches to a repertoire that essentially only consisted of a fastball when he first arrived on campus. He reportedly learned a split-change from a teammate late in his sophomore season, right before participating in the Cape Cod League, where an incredible showing sealed his billing as an elite draft prospect. Pitching in that collegiate summer league last year, Manaea struck out 85 hitters in 57 1/3 innings and walked just seven while registering a microscopic 1.22 ERA. He received the CCL's Outstanding Prospect Award, which in the past has gone to such players as Matt Wieters, Mark Teixeira and Billy Wagner. Manaea is following up that sterling performance with his best season yet at Indiana State. Through 12 starts, he's 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA and 93-to-27 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings. Who Could He Be? With his size and velocity, Manaea offers what baseball evaluators crave. A scout quoted in one article marveled: "You really don't see lefties throw that hard. They're considered freaks and when you see someone projectable to be huge, like him, that's what you're looking for." He's grown so much -- both physically and mentally -- in his three years at college that it's difficult to put a cap on Manaea's upside. If he can stay healthy and continue to improve certain aspects of his game, he's got everything it takes to be a fast-tracked, top-of-rotation MLB starter. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The history of collegiate pitchers taken in the top five picks portends an accelerated timetable. Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer, who were taken successively with the top three picks in the 2011 draft, are all either in the majors or knocking on the door two years later. Kevin Gausman, the LSU right-hander who went fourth overall last year, is already in Double-A and dominating. Then again, Manaea can hardly be described as polished. He's still refining his secondary pitches, and is said to have some issues with repeating his delivery and controlling the run game. His estimated time of arrival is probably a bit further off than fellow highly ranked collegiate hurlers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, but 2014 is not out of the question if things shake out right. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… Manaea has all the physical attributes needed to become a dominant big-league pitcher but there are some questions regarding his demeanor and maturity. He's an extremely laid-back guy who nearly missed eligibility for college due to poor high school grades, which he admits were "due to pure laziness." He's come a long way since then, but will he be able to embrace the work ethic required to become an elite player at the pro level? Additionally, Manaea has exhibited some concerns this year that have dropped his stock a bit. Hip soreness caused him to miss some time and, while he flashed 95 mph heat in the Cape Cod League last summer, he's been clocked more frequently in the low 90s this season. Velocity drops are always somewhat alarming for a player his age. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… The southpaw profiles as exactly what the rebuilding Twins need: a high-upside arm with the potential to be major-league ready pretty quickly. Although he isn't as advanced as some of the other pitchers available, Manaea has all the traits you'd like to see in a top draft pick and would be an excellent addition to Minnesota's suddenly burgeoning core of pitching prospects.

Holding the manager accountable every time a starter goes out and gives up a lead in the 7th/8th seems kind of silly to me. Even if we don't want to admit it, these opinions are almost always formed in hindsight. Bullpens give up leads sometimes too.

Phil Miller and Mike Berardino are my favorites, and two of the better writers we've had on the beat in some time.

Some Gibson stats: Opponents are hitting .262/.313/.335 against him. He has faced 178 hitters, allowing two home runs and 12 walks. 36 of the 43 hits he's allowed have been singles. By the account of the Twins' GM, he is 100% physically, and sound mechanically. I'm curious to know what signs would lead anyone to believe he's not ready. Is it just based on one bad start? His numbers prior to Wednesday's outing, in which 7 of 11 balls in play turned into hits, would have to be described as excellent.

Doesn't Terry Ryan's quote within this post suggest pretty strongly that he is ready? I don't see what Gibson's going to learn in Triple-A at this point that he couldn't learn in the majors while also giving the Twins a better chance to win games. If he fizzles out, you can always send him back down -- it's not like you'd be using an extra option. I'd just like to see him get a chance, especially since it would disrupt the miserable status quo. Again: the Twins have the second-worst rotation in the major leagues. That is not in any way irrelevant to this conversation.

This represents a double-standard that I really don't understand. Gibson's being treated like any other minor-leaguer and needs to put together consistently dazzling stats to merit a call-up despite obviously having the talent to pitch in the majors? Fine. But why aren't Pelfrey and Worley being treated like every other marginal major-league starter? They've each had eight starts and neither has shown signs that they deserve to be in the rotation right now. Why is it exactly that neither is getting bumped any time soon? No one's saying that the team should give up on either one of them completely – in both cases the struggles may be attributable to short-term arm recovery issues – but this notion that they're entrenched regardless of their performance is very bothersome.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]4099[/ATTACH]Mike Berardino, the excellent new beat writer for the Pioneer Press, linked to a new story on Wednesday with an amusing teaser: "Attention Gibsonites: Kyle Gibson takes a step back at Rochester." Gibsonites. I like it. And it’s a label I’ll proudly wear because, from my view, it seems obvious that Gibson should be on the major-league roster by now. Yes, it's true. The right-hander had a poor outing on Wednesday. The Twins are of course no strangers to those. In his worst start of the season, Gibson lasted only three-plus innings, coughing up four runs on seven hits. On the same day, Mike Pelfrey turned in yet another unimpressive effort for the Twins. Along with Vance Worley and Pedro Hernandez, Pelfrey has been a mess, helping to saddle Minnesota's starting corps with the second-worst ERA in the major leagues. Worley owns the highest opponents’ batting average in the game at .379 and Pelfrey ranks fourth at .339. Hernandez has allowed a 1.172 OPS against right-handed hitters, demonstrating why he doesn’t belong in an MLB rotation. Unlike those three struggling starters, Gibson has found success more often than not this year. He hurled a complete game shutout prior to Wednesday's dud, and his overall numbers -- 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 38/12 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings -- are perfectly solid. One could say he's been inconsistent, but look at what we're comparing him to. The Twins should feel compelled to shake things up in their rotation at this point because the passive approach isn't working. Even looking beyond the potential for improved results, there is the matter of Gibson's development, which should rank as a high priority at this point. He was considered nearly big-league ready before he suffered his injury, and he's now 20 months removed from surgery. In late April, Terry Ryan declared the 25-year-old pitching prospect to be “100 percent.” “There’s no question – his arm, delivery, his mechanics. Everything is in good order, which is encouraging,” said the general manager. So… what’s the hold-up? The Twins set a 130-150 inning cap for Gibson this year in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and he’s already closing in on 50 frames at Triple-A. How many more of his limited innings will be used up facing minor-league hitters, whom he’s proven capable of handling in spite of a couple clunky outings, when he could be gaining valuable MLB experience? It’s a bit of a baffling situation when you consider that standing in Gibson’s way are some of the most hittable pitchers in the major leagues. Even if he struggles to adapt, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the former first-round pick would be a downgrade from any member of the rotation not named Scott Diamond or Kevin Correia.

Disagree. Gibson has "earned" the call-up by being more talented than the majority of the current rotation. I'm not so concerned about his lack of consistency considering that so many pitchers in the Twins' rotation have been consistently terrible. Get Gibson up, let him take his lumps and pitch up to his innings cap, hope that he learns enough to be ready for 2014. Even if it's not Gibson, the team's unwillingness to take any action on the rotation is getting really frustrating. They rank 29th out of 30 teams in SP ERA and while I can somewhat understand waiting a bit on Worley to see if his luck changes, Hernandez is blatantly not an MLB starting pitcher and Pelfrey has got nothing right now. For all the talk about pitchers needing to "earn" things, I'm having trouble seeing what Pelf has done to earn such a long leash other than signing a $4M contract.

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