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Nick Nelson

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  1. I think that's clearly the principal reason, but there are also deeper running narratives. Terry Ryan fed the fire with his comment at the winter meetings about how they "couldn't give their money away." The Twins are a last place team. Minnesota can be cold in April and September. The night life here isn't what it is in some other towns. I'm not necessarily saying there's merit in these conceptions, but they do exist.
  2. I made no allusions one way or another. What is clear is that, for whatever reason, it has been rare for remotely big-name free agents to land here. Willingham bucked that trend.
  3. Geez. Boras is such a drama queen.
  4. I think you're exaggerating the opposing viewpoint a bit. I don't know that anyone makes him out to be a "hopeless oaf." I've seen Sano take many reps at third base, and mechanically he's not bad. His arm makes up for much of what he lacks in finesse with the glove. The thing is, the kid is 6'4" and 240 lbs at age 19. He's already the size of the biggest players in the MLB at the position. If he keeps growing, it's just out of the question. Could you picture a Frank Thomas sized guy playing third base?
  5. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1474-Position-Analysis-Left-Field
  6. Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2012 Stats: .260/.366/.524, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Doumit Since joining the Minnesota Twins last winter, Josh Willingham has been destroying long-standing conceptions in addition to baseballs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There was a belief that prominent free agents wouldn’t sign in Minnesota. Yet Willingham, coming off a big season in Oakland, came aboard on a favorable three-year deal that at the time looked like a bargain and now looks like an absolute steal. There was a belief that right-handed power hitters couldn’t consistently put the ball over the fence in Target Field’s spacious confines. Willingham christened his new home park with homers in three straight games, and ultimately totaled 21 jackjobs on the year at the Bullseye. There was a belief that Willingham’s historical durability issues made him a poor bet to stay healthy through a full season at age 33. Then he went out and set a career high with 145 games played, avoiding the disabled list for the entirety of the campaign. Terry Ryan has had a disturbingly high whiff rate on free agent signings, but with Willingham the general manager connected for a long shot into the left field seats. The slugging outfielder was everything the Twins could have hoped for in Year One of his contract, anchoring the cleanup spot through the summer while racking up homers and driving in runs at a fantastic rate. On a better team, he may have collected MVP votes. Now Willingham comes face to face with another conception: that a player aging into his mid-30s, coming off a career season marked by unprecedented health, will be hard-pressed to replicate the feat. That is undoubtedly true. Willingham’s first season in a Twins uniform was quite amazing, exceeding anything he’d previously accomplished in his career, and now he’s another year older at 34. But on the bright side, the imposing masher’s value comes more from sheer strength than speed or agility, and that’s not a skill that tends to deteriorate as much with age. Sure, he’ll probably have a tough time reproducing his numbers from 2012. That is the very nature of a career year. But prior to that season, Willingham had been a remarkably consistent hitter, so the smart money is on another .850 OPS, 25 HR type of season. The Twins will take that in a heartbeat. If there’s one area we could expect to see Willingham meaningfully decline this year (aside from games played) it would be his defense. That’s a bit worrisome since he’s already had his fair share of adventures in left field. It’d be no surprise if the Twins start plugging him in at DH more and more often over the course of the campaign, favoring younger and more fleet options in their ballpark’s expansive outfield. This brings us to the position’s depth, which is an interesting subject. At the outset of the season, Darin Mastroianni will likely serve as Willingham’s primary backup, but there are a number of moving parts that could come into play here. Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are both prospects vying to emerge as viable MLB options at some point during the summer. Minor-league veterans Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez will be on hand. It’s not unthinkable that Trevor Plouffe could be nudged back to a corner outfield spot if he hits but his defense at third isn’t up to snuff. Any of those players would also be an option in right field, and that may be the more likely destination if Chris Parmelee ends up sliding to first. But, as mentioned above, Ron Gardenhire could become inclined over time to help his contact-heavy pitching staff by replacing Willingham in the field with a superior defender, and of course given his history there’s a good chance the seasoned slugger will be nicked up at some point. But make no mistake about it: Whether he’s occupying the area on defense or raining line drives with his ferocious pull-heavy swing from the batter’s box, left field belongs to Josh Willingham this year. And after his prodigious performance in that role last season, Twins fans should be willing set their conceptions aside and enjoy the show.
  7. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3561[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2012 Stats: .260/.366/.524, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Doumit Since joining the Minnesota Twins last winter, Josh Willingham has been destroying long-standing conceptions in addition to baseballs. There was a belief that prominent free agents wouldn’t sign in Minnesota. Yet Willingham, coming off a big season in Oakland, came aboard on a favorable three-year deal that at the time looked like a bargain and now looks like an absolute steal. There was a belief that right-handed power hitters couldn’t consistently put the ball over the fence in Target Field’s spacious confines. Willingham christened his new home park with homers in three straight games, and ultimately totaled 21 jackjobs on the year at the Bullseye. There was a belief that Willingham’s historical durability issues made him a poor bet to stay healthy through a full season at age 33. Then he went out and set a career high with 145 games played, avoiding the disabled list for the entirety of the campaign. Terry Ryan has had a disturbingly high whiff rate on free agent signings, but with Willingham the general manager connected for a long shot into the left field seats. The slugging outfielder was everything the Twins could have hoped for in Year One of his contract, anchoring the cleanup spot through the summer while racking up homers and driving in runs at a fantastic rate. On a better team, he may have collected MVP votes. Now Willingham comes face to face with another conception: that a player aging into his mid-30s, coming off a career season marked by unprecedented health, will be hard-pressed to replicate the feat. That is undoubtedly true. Willingham’s first season in a Twins uniform was quite amazing, exceeding anything he’d previously accomplished in his career, and now he’s another year older at 34. But on the bright side, the imposing masher’s value comes more from sheer strength than speed or agility, and that’s not a skill that tends to deteriorate as much with age. Sure, he’ll probably have a tough time reproducing his numbers from 2012. That is the very nature of a career year. But prior to that season, Willingham had been a remarkably consistent hitter, so the smart money is on another .850 OPS, 25 HR type of season. The Twins will take that in a heartbeat. If there’s one area we could expect to see Willingham meaningfully decline this year (aside from games played) it would be his defense. That’s a bit worrisome since he’s already had his fair share of adventures in left field. It’d be no surprise if the Twins start plugging him in at DH more and more often over the course of the campaign, favoring younger and more fleet options in their ballpark’s expansive outfield. This brings us to the position’s depth, which is an interesting subject. At the outset of the season, Darin Mastroianni will likely serve as Willingham’s primary backup, but there are a number of moving parts that could come into play here. Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are both prospects vying to emerge as viable MLB options at some point during the summer. Minor-league veterans Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez will be on hand. It’s not unthinkable that Trevor Plouffe could be nudged back to a corner outfield spot if he hits but his defense at third isn’t up to snuff. Any of those players would also be an option in right field, and that may be the more likely destination if Chris Parmelee ends up sliding to first. But, as mentioned above, Ron Gardenhire could become inclined over time to help his contact-heavy pitching staff by replacing Willingham in the field with a superior defender, and of course given his history there’s a good chance the seasoned slugger will be nicked up at some point. But make no mistake about it: Whether he’s occupying the area on defense or raining line drives with his ferocious pull-heavy swing from the batter’s box, left field belongs to Josh Willingham this year. And after his prodigious performance in that role last season, Twins fans should be willing set their conceptions aside and enjoy the show.
  8. The TD admins have gone back and forth a little bit on this so I figured I would open it up to the users... When we first switched to the new design, we used a single-column format for articles below the slider on the front page. Now, as you may have noticed, we're testing out a two-column format. This new arrangement (more similar to the previous design) is busier but features more content. What do you folks prefer?
  9. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1471-Position-Analysis-Shortstop
  10. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3539[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Pedro Florimon 2012 Stats: .219/.272/.307, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll On April 1, Pedro Florimon will become the Twins' ninth Opening Day starter at shortstop in 10 years. Will he be able to become the first player since Cristian Guzman to hold the title for consecutive seasons? Magic 8-ball says: outlook not so good. The path that brought Florimon to the Twins is brushed with a hint of irony. He had been drafted and raised by the Orioles, who watched him rise through their minor-league system and even sip a cup of coffee in the majors before removing him from their 40-man roster after the 2011 campaign. Shortstop had been a problem for the Birds in past years, much like with the Twins, but luckily Baltimore had found its answer at the position in one J.J. Hardy. The Twins claimed Florimon, and subsequently outrighted him from their own 40-man roster, exposing him to waivers and giving every organization a shot at him. Twenty-nine teams passed. It seemed clear that at this point in time Florimon was considered a marginal talent, but the Twins continued to see something in him. And last year, others started to see it as well. Playing in Class-AAA Rochester, the shortstop was voted onto the International League All-Star team in July as folks took notice of his flashy glove work. His bat remained typically unimpressive, but Florimon’s glowing defensive reviews earned him his first extended big-league stint the following month. His 43 games with the Twins in 2012 were a mixed bag. Unsurprisingly, he was a mess at the plate, as evidenced by a .219 batting average and .579 OPS. His defensive contributions are a bit trickier to judge; no metric could be trusted in such a small sample and the eye test registered plenty of good and bad moments. Team brass liked what they saw enough to ignore the shortstop position during the offseason and appoint Florimon starter without any real competition, so there’s that. Clearly, the guy has the athleticism and tools to be a quality defensive shortstop. But he’ll need to be well above average -- and perhaps even elite -- to offer meaningful value as a regular starter, because he’s simply not going to hit. Over the past two years, between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, he has struck out in 23 percent of his plate appearances. Such drastic contact issues are alarming, especially for a guy who offers little in the way of power or patience to make up for them. Odds are he’ll have a tough time maintaining even a .600 OPS, which would make him a liability in the lineup even at the No. 9 spot. If he plays great defense and the rest of the lineup carries weight, it’s probably a liability the Twins can afford. And that seems to be what they’re counting on. If Florimon can’t hack it, they’ll likely rely on his backup Eduardo Escobar – who carries a similar profile – in the same way. While it’s a bit frustrating to see such a blatantly bad hitter inked into the lineup, I can understand the team’s thinking. Shortstop has been a miserable pain point for the Twins in recent years, and while they stand little chance of extracting much offensive production there from any viable candidate, they can at least hope to shore the position up defensively. Plenty important, in light of the pitching staff’s ground ball tendencies. Florimon is as good a bet as any to fulfill that expectation, but he’s not a long-term answer. Identifying a player with a chance of becoming a lasting asset at the infield’s most important position should sit right next to starting pitching atop this organization’s list of ongoing priorities.
  11. Likely Starter: Pedro Florimon 2012 Stats: .219/.272/.307, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On April 1, Pedro Florimon will become the Twins' ninth Opening Day starter at shortstop in 10 years. Will he be able to become the first player since Cristian Guzman to hold the title for consecutive seasons? Magic 8-ball says: outlook not so good. The path that brought Florimon to the Twins is brushed with a hint of irony. He had been drafted and raised by the Orioles, who watched him rise through their minor-league system and even sip a cup of coffee in the majors before removing him from their 40-man roster after the 2011 campaign. Shortstop had been a problem for the Birds in past years, much like with the Twins, but luckily Baltimore had found its answer at the position in one J.J. Hardy. The Twins claimed Florimon, and subsequently outrighted him from their own 40-man roster, exposing him to waivers and giving every organization a shot at him. Twenty-nine teams passed. It seemed clear that at this point in time Florimon was considered a marginal talent, but the Twins continued to see something in him. And last year, others started to see it as well. Playing in Class-AAA Rochester, the shortstop was voted onto the International League All-Star team in July as folks took notice of his flashy glove work. His bat remained typically unimpressive, but Florimon’s glowing defensive reviews earned him his first extended big-league stint the following month. His 43 games with the Twins in 2012 were a mixed bag. Unsurprisingly, he was a mess at the plate, as evidenced by a .219 batting average and .579 OPS. His defensive contributions are a bit trickier to judge; no metric could be trusted in such a small sample and the eye test registered plenty of good and bad moments. Team brass liked what they saw enough to ignore the shortstop position during the offseason and appoint Florimon starter without any real competition, so there’s that. Clearly, the guy has the athleticism and tools to be a quality defensive shortstop. But he’ll need to be well above average -- and perhaps even elite -- to offer meaningful value as a regular starter, because he’s simply not going to hit. Over the past two years, between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, he has struck out in 23 percent of his plate appearances. Such drastic contact issues are alarming, especially for a guy who offers little in the way of power or patience to make up for them. Odds are he’ll have a tough time maintaining even a .600 OPS, which would make him a liability in the lineup even at the No. 9 spot. If he plays great defense and the rest of the lineup carries weight, it’s probably a liability the Twins can afford. And that seems to be what they’re counting on. If Florimon can’t hack it, they’ll likely rely on his backup Eduardo Escobar – who carries a similar profile – in the same way. While it’s a bit frustrating to see such a blatantly bad hitter inked into the lineup, I can understand the team’s thinking. Shortstop has been a miserable pain point for the Twins in recent years, and while they stand little chance of extracting much offensive production there from any viable candidate, they can at least hope to shore the position up defensively. Plenty important, in light of the pitching staff’s ground ball tendencies. Florimon is as good a bet as any to fulfill that expectation, but he’s not a long-term answer. Identifying a player with a chance of becoming a lasting asset at the infield’s most important position should sit right next to starting pitching atop this organization’s list of ongoing priorities.
  12. Sounds like Gardy took the words right out of my mouth:
  13. Thanks to everyone for the thoughtful input on this thread. It's a work in progress and your feedback helps us shape the rules and enforcement. This is a challenge for us, too -- there are a few members of the TD admin crew who fundamentally disagree with the concept of censorship entirely (myself included) but for the betterment of the site we need to set aside our personal feelings and do what we feel is best for the community. But let me be very clear on this: snark is NOT being outlawed, or even discouraged. Snepp is one of the snarkiest posters on the board and we made him a moderator. The thing is, it's not that difficult to be snarky without resorting to personal attacks and condescension. If you want to rib on a buddy in good nature, think about how it's going to come off to readers at large before you click "Post." We can't be expected to keep track of which users have history and which insults are inside jokes.
  14. Good plate discipline, no pop. Old for a prospect in Low-A. Still, a little intriguing if he can stick at short. I'll keep an eye on him, thanks for the report.
  15. You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1467-Position-Analysis-Third-Base
  16. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3531[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable.
  17. Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable.
  18. Let's be clear: Fro's ban was temporary. He has apparently decided he doesn't want to come back and that's his prerogative, but he's certainly welcome to return in 3 days if he likes. We generally enjoy his posts -- I know I do. He's funny, smart and witty. But a message needs to be sent in instances like this that insults and attacks toward members on the board will NOT be tolerated. I don't care how stupid you think they are. The way to increase the level of intelligence on the board is to write intelligent things, not rattle off snarky ad-hominem attacks that offend people and create a hostile environment. This forum is designed to be a place for the exchange of ideas, and spirited but respectful debate. It does not exist for people to "blow off steam"; if you want to do that buy a punching bag. Don't use members of our community as a substitute.
  19. Just a nice story, that's all. In seasons like this one, sometimes those are the things you root for.
  20. I actually didn't see much of Dozier, he played in only one of the three games I saw and wasn't around the practice fields much when I was there. From chatting with some people, the sense I got is that everyone's very impressed with his progress in the field, but there are still doubts -- even internally -- about whether his bat is going to pan out.
  21. I don't think the original reply was actually meant as a jab at your cred but rather a joke about the whole Sano age debate. Pelotero was fantastic. I hope many here will support this worthy initiative.
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