Nick Nelson

The Twins rounded out their rotation today, signing free agent right-hander Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million deal. Since Marquis essentially replaces Kevin Slowey, who was traded to the Rockies a few weeks ago and would have made about the same amount next season through arbitration, it seems appropriate to compare the two based on what they're likely to provide in 2012. Slowey was disastrous this past season, but Marquis' 2010 campaign was almost equally catastrophic, as he posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while being limited to 58 2/3 innings by injuries. He rebounded this year, putting up a mediocre 4.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while logging 132 innings over 23 starts between Washington and Arizona. That seems like a fair baseline expectation going forward. Their career numbers aren't terribly different. Marquis' ERA in the majors sits at 4.55, Slowey 4.66. Both have been extremely hittable. Slowey owns the superior WHIP (1.29 to 1.43), thanks largely to a lower walk rate (1.4 BB/9 to 3.5), and he also boasts the higher strikeout rate (6.7 K/9 to 5.2). [ATTACH=CONFIG]36[/ATTACH] Opting for a guy who misses fewer bats is disappointing in light of the strikeout shortage that I've written about a couple times this week. However, Marquis offsets his lack of whiffs with an elite ground ball rate, which stands in stark contrast to Slowey's extreme fly ball tendencies. Only six pitchers in the majors finished with a higher grounder rate than Marquis' 55.1 percent in 2011. If he continues to put the ball in play and induce tons of grounders, Marquis will only be as good as the infielders behind him, so the gamble that the Twins took on Jamey Carroll holding up as a full-time shortstop at age 38 will be magnified. If you asked me which guy I'd rather have on a one-year deal for $3 million next year, I'd probably opt for Slowey, if only because he's six years younger and offers greater upside. The difference isn't huge, though, and if Slowey is really the clubhouse headache he's been made out to be, this can be considered a justifiable swap at the bottom of the rotation. Unfortunately, it does nothing to augment the top of the rotation, which will leave plenty of pressure on Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano to carry the load. Fans who were hoping for a serious upgrade to the starting corps aren't getting one here.

[attachment=7062:4451.attach]It happened again on Tuesday. A local mainstream writer put out a column that was, to some extent, critical of Joe Mauer, and the reactions from fans were highly visceral on both sides. The [URL="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/254293231.html"]piece in question[/URL] came from Patrick Reusse, suggesting that the impetus is on Mauer (who still hasn't driven in a run this year) to step up and carry the team back to respectability. Some saw it as a reinforcement of the reservations they have long held about Mauer. Others saw it as another in a long string of unfair media attacks on the team's best player, a guy who has been used a central scapegoat and punching bag during the franchise's ongoing lull. What is it about Mauer that makes him such a divisive and controversial figure among fans and writers? It's a question I've long pondered. There's no question that Mauer gets far too much grief for a player of his ability and accomplishment. Traditional media types grumble because he doesn't fit the classic superstar mold, and fans follow course. He shies away from reporters, he isn't a vocal clubhouse fixture, he has missed time often due to injuries and he doesn't rack up big HR and RBI totals. These overblown critiques have led to a swelling of backlash amongst those who, despite not even necessarily being huge Mauer fans, feel the need to position themselves as defenders. After all, Mauer is the team's best player and one of the best players in franchise history. Maybe we should spend a little more time appreciating his strengths rather than bemoaning his shortcomings? To be clear, Mauer does have shortcomings. He's not infallible, and that sometimes gets lost in the rush to defend him against outrageous detractions. He hasn't been able to stay on the field, which isn't really his fault -- a punishing position and bad luck have been chief culprits -- but remains a mark against him. He also doesn't hit for a ton of power and doesn't run all that well. That means that although Mauer's abilities to spray line drives to left field and get on base at an elite rate are extremely valuable skills, they don't stand out as much in a bad offense. When other players in the lineup are hitting, Mauer will drive them in or get driven in. When the lineup is struggling, he ends up getting stuck at first and second base pretty often. He doesn't create offense single-handedly in the way that someone like Justin Morneau did. And that's why, in a season like last year where the lineup was filled with underperformers, Mauer finished with only 47 RBI and 62 runs scored in 113 games despite a .324 batting average and .880 OPS. When the offense is fully functioning, as it was in 2006 or 2010, Mauer is a transformative cog and an MVP-caliber contributor. When the rest of the players are scuffling, Mauer isn't really the type of player who will "carry" an offense, as Reusse beckons him to do in his latest column. At least that hasn't been the case in the past. Maybe it changes here in 2014 with Mauer transitioning to first base full-time. Maybe he moves a little closer to the form he showed in 2009, when he truly could power an offense rather than facilitating it. The signs haven't been real positive to that end, but it's still very early, and the 30-year-old is adapting to a new position while also shaking off rust after missing the last chunk of 2013 and dealing with lingering concussion symptoms during the offseason. I know many people want to see Mauer take more of a lead in driving the offense's production. He's very highly paid (which seems kind of irrelevant at this point), he's the first baseman and -- above all -- he's the most talented hitter on the team. I don't think those people are necessarily misguided, at least until they start calling him an overpaid slap hitter. I myself would like to see Mauer take on a role where he's putting the ball over the fence more frequently, and is more aggressive early in the count with runners on base. If that doesn't happen, and he continues to be the Joe Mauer we've come to know, I'll still enjoy watching him. He's one of the very best. But unless other players around him in the batting order are the ones stepping up, he may not have the means to make a profound impact on this club's run production. View full article

If ever there was a clear culprit for a ruined season, it was the Twins' starting pitching corps in 2012. While reasonably decent in the lineup and bullpen, the team stood no chance of competing thanks to an outrageously bad year from the rotation. Pinpointing exactly what went wrong within that unit is more complicated. When you're talking about a group that ranked last in the AL in ERA, hits allowed and opponent OPS, there are obviously a multitude of factors in play. But if you had to narrow the staff's troubles down to three principal issues, they'd probably be: 1) injuries, 2) lack of exceptional talent, and 3) heavy contact tendencies backed by a questionable defense. Heading into the new campaign, it's hard to feel a whole lot better about any of those areas. The injury bug has already bit, with the planned Opening Day starter (Scott Diamond) on the shelf and the most buzzworthy rotation contender (Samuel Deduno) also sidelined. When it comes to talent available at the major-league level, it's not clear the Twins upgraded significantly in the offseason by swapping out Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano in exchange for Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley. And none of those new names are renowned for missing bats, a quality was sorely lacking in the 2012 season. Twins starters averaged 5.53 strikeouts per nine innings – the lowest figure for any MLB team's rotation since 2009. Considering that the Twins traded away arguably their two best defenders during the offseason, another endless barrage of balls in play doesn't bode especially well. The downside is harrowing, but this unit is not without its glimmers of upside and intriguing storylines. Let's take a quick look at the five pitchers who will likely comprise the rotation when the season kicks off next week, as well as the various hurlers who will be lined up to step in when certain members inevitably falter. [B]1. Vance Worley, RHP 2012 Stats: 133 IP, 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 107/47 K/BB, 1.51 WHIP[/B] [attachment=5751:2152.attach] Acquired from Philly in the Ben Revere trade, Worley goes from being a back-end arm living in the shadows of Halladay, Hamels and Lee to Opening Day starter for the Twins. He draws that assignment largely because of circumstance, but he is the club's best hope for a legitimate rotation-fronter. He's still only 25, and his 3.50 career ERA is impressive. However, that success has come in the National League and now he must adjust to the more relentless AL format, with designated boppers replacing pitchers in opposing lineups. This transition, along with a surgically repaired elbow that bogged him down in the latter part of the '12 season, could prevent him from achieving the same type of results. [B]2. Kevin Correia, RHP 2012 Stats: 171 IP, 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 89/46 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP[/B] If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say nothing at all. Moving on… [B]3. Mike Pelfrey, RHP 2012 Stats: 19.2 IP, 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP[/B] An imposing presence on the mound at 6'7" and 250 lbs, with velocity to match, Pelfrey had his ups and downs while playing for the Mets. A strong and resilient arm enabled him to make 31-plus starts in four straight seasons before his elbow gave out early last year, and now he'll test that arm to the max as he seeks to return to the mound in the opening week, which would give him the fastest Tommy John recovery for a starting pitcher, ever. What's more: most pitchers who have come back anywhere near this timeframe have done so late in a season, tossing a few innings and then resting up over the winter. Pelfrey is attempting to come back after 11 months and take on a full season's workload, which is basically unheard of. I'll be wishing him the best but expecting plenty of bumps early on, especially since it sounds like his velocity still isn't close to pre-surgery norms. [B]4. Liam Hendriks, RHP 2012 Stats: 85.1 IP, 1-8, 5.59 ERA, 50/26 K/BB, 1.55 WHIP[/B] In spite of his tremendous production in the minor leagues, Hendriks has looked out of place pitching in the majors, timidly going after hitters with a repertoire that simply hasn't been effective at the highest level. In 85 innings spread across 16 starts last year, the right-hander coughed up 106 hits, including 17 home runs. He pitched well enough this spring to justifiably earn a job but was far from dominant. His superb track record while rising through the Twins' system is deserving of a long look this year, particularly with the dearth of other quality options, but if his results are similar he may have a hard time finding such an opportunity. [B]5. Cole De Vries, RHP 2012 Stats: 87.2 IP, 5-5, 4.11 ERA, 58/18 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP[/B] De Vries is in the same boat as Hendriks in that he lacks outstanding stuff -- in fact, he has less velocity and his secondary pitches produce less bite, from my view -- but he managed to garner much better results in a similar sample size last year and the same was true this spring. De Vries carries a shiny 0.64 ERA and has been almost unhittable in Grapefruit League action, but it will take a lot more than that to prove that the 28-year-old longtime farmhand belongs in a big-league rotation. As a Minnesota native, a former Gopher and by all accounts a nice guy, I'm rooting for him. But I can't help feeling that his presence in the rotation is a major indictment of where this team is at as the season gets underway. ... That's how the rotation will shape up at the start of the season, and it's without question going to be worst group the league has to offer, on paper. The best hope for the Twins is that some of the pitchers listed below will replace weak links over the course of the summer, allowing this unit to get stronger as the season goes on. [B]Scott Diamond, LHP[/B]: He opens the season on the DL, since recovery from a minor offseason elbow surgery has dragged on longer than expected, but he's on pace to return in mid-April and will probably unseat the worse performer between Hendriks and De Vries. [B]Samuel Deduno, RHP[/B]: After an electric performance for Team Dominicana in the World Baseball Classic, Deduno was ready to jump into the rotation with a head full of steam. Unfortunately, a groin injury will delay his opportunity to transfer the preseason success to meaningful MLB games, but when he finally takes the mound for Minnesota he'll be doing so with the most confidence of his career. Deduno is one to watch. [B]Kyle Gibson, RHP[/B]: The Twins left the door open for Gibson to win a spot in the rotation, but some ugly bouts with command this spring confirmed that he's not quite ready yet. Chances are good that he will be after sharpening up for a month or two in Triple-A, and at that point he could immediately become the team's best starter. [B]P.J. Walters, RHP[/B]: Walters is always going to be interesting because he spins a dynamite breaking ball, but unfortunately the nasty hook comes coupled with a fastball that falls blatantly short of major-league quality. Still, if you need a spot starter in a pinch, he's not the worst guy to have on hand. He had some nice moments last year. [B]Rich Harden, RHP[/B]: He's worth mentioning here, because in a mix that lacks exciting upside he's the one guy who has been a top-flight MLB pitcher at one point in his career. He probably won't be an option until June at the earliest, but if Harden returns to the mound and is throwing well, he should have an easy path back to the majors. View full article

[attachment=5747:1348.attach][B]Likely Starter: Chris Parmelee 2012 Stats: .229/.290/.380, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 18 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Wilkin Ramirez, Ryan Doumit[/B] One of the big storylines for the Twins this year will be the trio of former first-round draft picks getting opportunities to prove their worth in the majors. Aaron Hicks is the headliner, and Trevor Plouffe has plenty of fanfare after launching 24 homers last season, but Chris Parmelee has slipped under the radar to some extent. Unlike Plouffe and Hicks, Parmelee has had a heck of a time finding a place to stick. The Twins cleared out two center fielders to make room for their prized prospect, and Plouffe has been handed the reins at multiple positions. Conversely, Parmelee has spent much of his time in the majors buried on the depth chart. His overall numbers in the big leagues thus far haven’t been impressive, but he’s never had a sustained chance to settle in. Now, that’s about to change. Clearly right field isn’t the ideal position for Parmelee. He’s slow-footed and will have to rely on quick reactions and smart routes to provide competent defense in the outfield. He’s better suited for first base and it’s possible he’ll land there before season’s end. But defense won’t be the measuring stick for this 25-year-old. Regardless of where he ends up – whether it’s right field, or first base, or DH – Parmelee is not going to be a defensive asset, so he needs to hit in order to last as a major-league regular. Fortunately, he’s shown plenty with the bat over the past couple seasons to inspire hope that he can be a long-term fixture in the lineup. In the earlier portion of his minor-league career, Parmelee was more serviceable than spectacular at the plate, which largely prevented him from gaining prominence as a prospect, but somewhere along the line at New Britain in 2011 he seemingly turned a corner. Late in the year, he joined the Twins as a September call-up and went on an obscene tear, posting a 1.035 OPS with four homers and six doubles in 21 games to instantly push himself into the team’s plans. He followed up the brilliant MLB debut with a 2012 season that was spent shuttling back and forth between Minnesota and Rochester. In the majors, he showed occasional flashes of promise but was largely ineffective, undoubtedly hampered by sporadic playing time. In Triple-A he was outright brilliant, raking to the tune of .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers in 64 games while walking as he often as he struck out. Among players who accumulated 250 or more plate appearances in the International League, he ranked first in batting average, OBP and slugging. It was the type of performance we’d never seen from Parmelee over a lengthy stretch: complete and utter dominance at the dish. Granted, that was Triple-A, and the majors are another matter entirely. But those kinds of numbers – from a 24-year-old who entered the season with only a smattering of at-bats above Double-A – can’t be overlooked. While it's probably best to remain cautious in our optimism, there are plenty of signs that Parmelee has begun realize the potential that the Twins saw when they drafted him 20th overall in 2006. The polished approach the plate. The sweet lefty swing. The ability to spray line drives to all fields. His next step will be transferring it to the big leagues. He’ll have the opportunity to do so in right field this season, but it’s a good bet he won’t remain there for too long. Either he’ll scuffle and be pushed aside for another of the organization’s numerous rising young outfielders (Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are the leading short-term candidates) or he’ll handle the challenge and establish himself as Justin Morneau’s successor at first base. Wherever he's standing in the field, it is at the plate that Parmelee commands attention, and that's where he'll seek to make his mark this year. I, for one, am excited to see what he can do. View full article

[attachment=5706:2120.attach][B]Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll[/B] Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable. View full article