Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5036[/ATTACH]I've been bullish on Samuel Deduno, and it's been a point of disagreement between myself and some other generally like-minded Twins writers. Aaron Gleeman has repeatedly warned against buying into the right-hander's small-sample success and the Geek recently lamented the idea of a long-term contract. It's easy to see why any stat-savvy observer would hold reservations. Deduno has performed poorly in a number of key peripheral categories, namely strikeout-to-walk ratio, which many -- myself included -- view as one of the most important indicators for pitcher success. But, as I've often said, Deduno is a unique and unconventional case, so in assessing his value going forward, I think it is wise to set aside the statistics we tend to lean on, and look at him through a different lens. The metric that largely causes skepticism with regards to Deduno, as mentioned above, is his K/BB ratio. Last year, in 79 innings with the Twins, the righty totaled nearly as many walks (53) as strikeouts (57), which is almost always a sign that disaster is on the horizon. This year he's cut down on the walks, lowering his BB/9 rate from 6.0 to 3.3*, but he's lost a bunch of strikeouts in the process, with his K/9 dropping from 6.5 to 5.0. While improved, his 42/28 K/BB is not close to the 2-to-1 ratio you like to see at a minimum. (*By the way, this probably deserves a post of its own, but I'm thinking Rick Anderson might deserve a TON of credit for Deduno's unprecedented improvements with control. I remember hearing that the pitching coach was working very closely with the hurler, running two bullpen sessions between each start. The extra attention appears to be paying off because Deduno has never maintained a BB/9 rate below four... anywhere, even in the minors. For all the criticism aimed at his failures with Francisco Liriano -- another maddeningly erratic Latin pitcher who is now succeeding elsewhere -- Anderson is really redeeming himself with Deduno.) But is K/BB ratio the vitally important indicator for Deduno that it is for most other pitchers? His game is based more on inducing weak contact than missing bats, and I've always felt that he can get away with handing out more walks because he's so tough to square up. After all, a free pass only costs one base at a time. Even with a heightened number of base runners, it's tricky for an opposing offense to push guys across the plate without big hits doing the damage. Deduno is holding opposing hitters to a .245 average and .351 slugging percentage. This dynamic isn't captured well by popular sabermetric measures. The prevailing wisdom behind fielding independent metrics assumes that any pitcher should be expected to allow a BABIP around .300, but Deduno registered a .267 mark last year and is at .272 this year. He appears to have a sustainable skill for limiting damage on balls in play, thanks in large part to his extreme ground ball tendencies (he is the only pitcher in the majors with 60-plus innings and a GB rate above 60 percent, and I'd wager that nobody induces more weakly hit nubbers). Many reasonable observers are still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Deduno, but he has by and large been a very effective starter in the majors over the last two years. Last season his ERA sat at 3.55 before a rough patch in his final three outings shot that mark up above four. This year he owns a 3.18 ERA through 12 turns, and he's pitched into the seventh in all but three starts. There's no guarantee that this will keep up, but I'm through looking for reasons to expect a drop-off. Between his outstanding numbers at Triple-A, his dominance in the World Baseball Classic and his continuing improvement at the major-league level, I'm a believer in Deduno, even if that means moving out my comfort zone analytically. Once you've come around to the idea of Deduno being an ongoing fixture, you'll feel a lot better about the short-term future of this rotation. Despite being 30 years old, Deduno won't even be arbitration eligible until 2015 at the earliest, and he'll remain under team control for several years beyond. Late bloomers can have their advantages. And unlike with R.A. Dickey, it looks like the Twins might have opened the door for this one at the right time.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4986[/ATTACH]A slow start in Double-A had suddenly become a distant memory. Miguel Sano was on fire, enjoying his best stretch in what has been an incredible season. Over the course of five days, he had collected nine hits -- including two doubles and four homers -- with five walks and 10 RBI. In less than week's time, the top prospect had raised his OPS in New Britain from .738 to .895. Following this blistering hot streak, Sano rightfully became the center of discussion in Twins Territory, but unfortunately it wasn't his play on the field that was garnering attention. Instead, it was his behavior following the last of those four homers. After launching a majestic bomb last Tuesday, the 20-year-old stood in place for a good five seconds admiring his work, and then smugly flipped his bat before engaging in an exceedingly slow trot around the bases. Brash. Cocky. Provocative. Frankly, they are qualities that the Twins could use, even if Sano's action itself could hardly be condoned by anyone. While I think the issue is overblown, there has clearly been something amiss in a Minnesota clubhouse guided by the leadership of the quietly dominant Joe Mauer and the folksy, amiable Ron Gardenhire. I don't like what Sano did, particularly because he's putting himself in danger by showing up opposing pitchers in that manner, but I don't mind the sentiment behind it. This is a competitive sport. It's me against you, and I'm better. I'm going to win. Also, it sounds like there was some sour history between Sano and the pitcher, Bobby Lanigan (a former teammate in New Britain), so that adds another mitigating factor. While this might be the most extreme example yet, Sano has a history of showboating on the field. Considering that he's one of the premier talents ever to emerge from his native country, a top three prospect in baseball, and still a kid at 20 years old, it's naive to think he won't flash an ego and play with some swagger. The Twins know that, and I don't think they're terribly bothered by it. Pimping the home run was not, by itself, an especially worrisome act, but it's also not what resulted in an extended benching at the behest of his manager. Patrick Reusse detailed the events that took place after the game in an illuminating column: There is where you can't help but get a little concerned. The descriptions here are vague but this sounds like something ranging between disrespect and outright insubordination, not only toward his team's manager but toward his organization's general manager. It's a bad sign and something that the Twins are right to punish and strongly discourage, even if the length of the benching -- which lasted four games, until the third baseman returned to the lineup Sunday -- has been criticized by some. Sano's incident adds to a growing trend of problematic attitude outbursts from key prospects in the Twins' system. On the same day as the "Pimpgate" scandal materialized, Oswaldo Arcia was removed from a game in Rochester for lack of hustle; Arcia's boisterous personality also created the occasion stir during his time in Minnesota. Stellar second base prospect Eddie Rosario was benched for a few games in Ft. Myers back in May for what was cryptically termed "his approach to the game." In his previously linked article, Reusse observes this trend and calls out the growing need for a high-ranking Latin American coach in the organization, one who could perhaps better relate with these young men and help set them on the right path. It's a great point. I love the passion I've seen from some of these guys. Arcia is a joy to watch, in large part because he wears his excitable emotions on his sleeve. I enjoyed hearing a story about Sano shouting into the opposing dugout that they'd better respect him when he smashed a long home run immediately after a pitch had buzzed past his head in Ft. Myers back in April. The makeup of the Twins roster has reflected the "Minnesota Nice" stereotype all too well over the years, with a clubhouse that could best be described as vanilla. I wouldn't say there's necessarily anything wrong with that, but I also think many Twins fans will welcome an added edge, which these fiery youngsters seem to bring to the table along with considerable skill. At the same time, it needs to be kept in check, so I have no problem with the measures taken to ensure that these prospects remain respectful and avoid long-term friction with the organization. It's important to remember that these truly are still kids, adjusting to a new culture and set of rules. Sano returned to the New Britain lineup Sunday evening and went 1-for-3 with a pair of walks. I suspect his brief timeout will ultimately be forgotten in the narrative of this breakout season, but hopefully the lesson learned will not.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4956[/ATTACH]With six innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Wednesday, Mike Pelfrey lowered his ERA to 5.15 ERA, the lowest it has been since April 9. During the first couple months of the season, Pelfrey was pretty clearly the worst starting pitcher in baseball, at least among those to hold onto their jobs. Not surprising in light of the fact that May 1st marked his one-year anniversary from Tommy John surgery. Looking at historical timelines for recovery from the notorious procedure, Pelfrey's initial struggles were to be expected. But his improvement since the start of June has been stark. Don't take my word for it; check out the numbers side-by-side: [TABLE] [TD=align: center]April and May [/TD] [TD=align: center]June and July [/TD] Games Started [TD=align: center]11 [/TD] [TD=align: center]7 [/TD] Quality Starts [TD=align: center]2 [/TD] [TD=align: center]5 [/TD] ERA [TD=align: center]6.66 [/TD] [TD=align: center]3.35 [/TD] K/BB [TD=align: center]26/19 [/TD] [TD=align: center]29/9 [/TD] Opp AVG/OBP/SLG [TD=align: center].332/.387/.521 [/TD] [TD=align: center].263/.308/.363 [/TD] [/TABLE] The contrast is remarkable. In April and May, Pelfrey was a hittable mess, almost incapable of getting through six innings. Since then, however, he's been extremely solid, completing six or more innings in all but one start (in which he went 5 2/3) and consistently giving his team a good chance to win. It seems safe to say that he's gotten over the hump. Unfortunately, the turnaround may have come too late to help the Twins. My expectation from the beginning was that Pelfrey would start slow and improve in the latter part of the season, but as a player on a one-year contract with a non-competitive team (in other words, a trade candidate), that's a problem because potential trade partners will assess his value based on his performance in the first half. Pelfrey is almost certainly among the commodities Terry Ryan is shopping with the deadline rapidly approaching, but will other teams focus on his steady performance these past couple months or his numbers for the season as a whole, like an ERA that ranks as the sixth-worst in the majors, or a strikeout rate that is fourth-worst? Because he missed time with an injury in late June, Pelfrey hasn't had quite enough time to rebuild his value and now he'll have just one more start before next Wednesday's trade deadline. It would seem that the market for him might not be especially hot, and for his part, Pelf says he would be "crushed" if he were to be dealt. So what's the alternative? Let him continue taking the mound every fifth day in August and September and then use his improved second half as grounds to score a healthy contract in free agency? Or should the Twins take a proactive approach and look to lock the veteran up with a contract extension before season's end? Back in May, that notion would have been laughable, but Pelfrey has undeniably been a high-quality fixture over the past two months and, in light of his circumstances, it's not hard to believe his transformation has been legitimate. He's still only 29 years old, and while he was by no means a dominant pitcher in New York prior to the elbow injury, he was a workhorse who occasionally produced stellar seasons. The Twins are trying to rebuild around youth, but the disheartening developments this year for Scott Diamond and Vance Worley have cast serious doubt on Minnesota's ability to piece together a workable rotation configured with internal parts. We all know the likelihood of Ryan fishing for impact arms in free agency. Of course, Pelfrey might be eager to play out the rest of the year and test the market, since he's never really had a chance to do so (last year was his first foray into free agency and obviously he had much going against him). Then again, if his numerous quotes about enjoying his time in Minnesota and really wanting to stay are to be believed, the righty might be open to agreeable terms. With the way the free agent pitching market has spiraled out of control in recent years, and with the uncertainty surrounding young hurlers that the Twins hoped might figure into their 2013 rotation (Diamond, Worley, Alex Meyer, Trevor May), if Pelfrey can be signed for anything resembling a discount, Ryan would probably be crazy not to do it.

If it wasn't obvious before his latest poor performance, it certainly seems obvious now that Scott Diamond is in line for a demotion from the Minnesota Twins rotation. Since pitching well in his first five starts back in April and May, the lefty has gone 2-7 with a 6.65 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 28/24 K/BB ratio in his past 13 turns. It would be one thing if he were showing signs of improvement, but that's not the case. In his last three outings, Diamond has surrendered 16 hits, 10 walks, 11 earned runs and four homers while recording just two strikeouts. He has allowed more than twice as many fly balls as grounders in that time. I wrote back in late May that Diamond was getting away from the things that had made him successful last season, and recently that has been more blatantly true than ever. On Sunday, after watching Diamond get shelled for six runs in 4 2/3 innings, the soft-spoken and non-provocative Tom Kelly opined while filling in as commentator on FSN's broadcast that the time has probably come for a change. It was clear to him -- as it has been to many of us -- that Diamond doesn't presently belong in a major-league rotation. In the wake of his latest disastrous outing, the lefty was mystified that his great work in the bullpen isn't translating over to games. I've seen some variation of that quote from a Twins' starter far too often this season; it conveys a sense of hopelessness, and convinces me more than ever that Diamond needs a break to get things figured out. At this point, the Twins surely must agree, though they appear content to give him at least one more chance. If a move should come in the near future, who are the candidates to replace him? With Pedro Hernandez and Cole De Vries on the shelf, let's take a look at the available arms on hand in Class-AAA Rochester: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4923[/ATTACH]Vance Worley, RHP AAA Stats: 9 GS, 58 IP, 3.88 ERA, 34/17 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP Minnesota's Opening Day starter was demoted back in late May with a 7.21 ERA and an obscene .381 opponents' batting average. His performance in Triple-A has looked far better on the surface, but at a deeper glance it's pretty tough to get excited about his improvements. Even against the lesser competition, Worley has still been unable to strike people out (5.3 K/9) while allowing too many hits (65 in 58 innings). He was placed on the 7-day disabled list last week with shoulder inflammation, but he'll be eligible to return tomorrow, so his availability depends on the severity of the injury. Even if he returns soon, the Twins will likely want to see him prove that he's healthy and effective before a recall is considered. Andrew Albers, LHP AAA Stats: 20 GS, 115.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 105/29 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP Albers has been the standout performer on Rochester's staff, consistently turning in strong outings while posting a respectable K-rate (8.2 K/9) and controlling the running game (three stolen bases attempted in 20 starts). As a 27-year-old who was pitching as a reliever in an independent league three years ago, Albers is hardly a conventional prospect, but based on merit he is beyond deserving of a look in the majors. The stumbling block: he still needs to be added to the 40-man roster. P.J. Walters, RHP AAA Stats: 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 53/21 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP Walters was called up to fill in back in late May and quickly unraveled after a couple good starts, leading to his second designation for assignment in two years. It's plain to see that he doesn't have the stuff to pitch in the majors, as illustrated by a 5.79 ERA in 101 innings with the Twins over the past two seasons, so although he chose to stay in the organization after his latest demotion, you have to figure that he's exhausted his opportunities in Minnesota. Liam Hendriks AAA Stats: 11 GS, 65 IP, 5.12 ERA, 39/12 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The forgotten man. Hendriks made the Twins' rotation out of spring training but was bumped after two starts (a shockingly short leash, considering how long guys like Worley and Diamond have been allowed to flap in the wind). While in Rochester, he missed about a month due to injury and hasn't pitched very well, although his control has remained very good and prior to his last clunker he had rattled off four straight quality starts. Hendriks has looked hittable everywhere this year, but he's still only 24 and might have a better shot at making a future impact in the Twins rotation than anyone else listed here (save for Worley, who is presently unavailable). Nick Blackburn AAA Stats: 1 GS, 5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 0/0 K/BB, 2.00 WHIP I can already hear the cringing. Twins fans tend to have a visceral reaction to Blackburn, who is currently earning $5.5 million in the last year of an ill-advised contract extension, but there's a good chance we'll be seeing him in Minnesota before season's end. After undergoing his third arm surgery in as many years in the spring, Blackburn missed the first half but is now on the rehab trail and nearing a potential return. After achieving decent results (3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) in five starts between the rookie-level GCL and Double-A, he was promoted to Rochester this week and made his debut on Tuesday night. An absolutely terrible outing didn't help his cause, but he's got plenty of time to convince the club that he deserves one more look.

Technically, the actual halfway point in Minnesota's season came and went back in the first week of July, when the Twins played their 81st game at home against the Yankees. Yet, with the All-Star Game and its requisite four-day break falling in mid-July, it's tidier to simply use the Midsummer Classic as a milestone bisecting the MLB season. So, now that we've passed both the official and unofficial halfway points in what is clearly going to be a losing campaign, where do we go from here? The playoffs might be out of the picture, but that doesn't mean there aren't positive things to be accomplished. Here in the final 70 games, winning takes a back seat to the following five priorities: 1) Limit Joe Mauer's innings behind the plate. Two years ago, Mauer's future as a catcher was very much in doubt as he battled mysterious leg problems and exhibited diminished skill defensively. He has authoritatively erased any such concerns since then, setting a career high in plate appearances last year and ramping up his workload behind the dish this year while once again remaining remarkably healthy. Mauer is one of the best hitters in the league, and his production is vastly more valuable when he's catching. To give you some idea of how much his offense (.320/.402/.473, 30 doubles, eight homers) stands out at the position, consider that Kansas City's Salvador Perez, with a .711 OPS and four homers in the first half, was one of the American League's two All Star reserves at catcher. At some point Mauer will need to transition away from catching duties, but it's in the Twins' best interest to delay that eventuality as long as possible. Therefore, I would recommend drastically reducing his reps behind the plate in the second half. Catching is very hard on the body, and while Mauer's ability to avoid the disabled list while crouching for 500-plus innings this year has been admirable, there's no reason to expose him to much additional wear and tear in the second half of a lost season. The best approach: Play Mauer at catcher often enough to keep sharp, and no more. Give him a heavy uptick in playing time at first base and DH, while letting an alternative option (even Drew Butera) handle the punishment of catching. Hopefully, this will improve Mauer's chances of serving as a regular catcher in future years where it might matter more. 2) Load up on future assets. The Twins are in sell mode, and Terry Ryan has made no secret of it. The chief objective for the next couple weeks, and beyond, will be adding as much minor-league talent to the system as possible in exchange for expendable parts. Justin Morneau, Jamey Carroll and other candidates are likely to fetch modest returns, but anything that Ryan is able to acquire would be a bonus when giving up expiring contracts. Of course, the only way the Twins are going to be able to add any impact prospects is by trading Glen Perkins, who figures to be one of the hottest names on the trade market. While the general manager is understandably reluctant to part with his elite closer, it's known that he is open to the idea should an offer sufficiently wow him. As should be the case. 3) Straighten out struggling youngsters. Aaron Hicks is hitting .197. Kyle Gibson has a 6.45 ERA. Oswaldo Arcia was recently demoted to the minors amidst a brutal slump. No, things haven't gone swimmingly for the group of promising rookies that have been ushered into the major-league fold this year, but that's not particularly surprising nor worrisome. The key in these final months will be doing whatever is necessary to set these individuals up for future success, because the Twins need them to be crucial components in a turnaround going forward. If that means more time in the minors (as in the case of Arcia), so be it. If it means working through it in the big leagues (as in the case of Hicks), all the better. We'll have to trust that the Twins know what's best for the development of these young talents. Hopefully each can finish the year in a good place. 4) Evaluate borderline talents. While the Arcia demotion is justifiable, I have a harder time understanding the decision to send Chris Parmelee to the minors. He has nothing left to prove in the International League, which he completely dominated last year, and the Twins are reaching a point where they need to make a decision on the 25-year-old. They don't want to enter next season in the same position they entered this one -- with Parmelee being an unknown quantity who has crushed Triple-A pitching but struggled in limited time against major-leaguers -- yet that is exactly the situation they're headed toward. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4842[/ATTACH] Fortunately, the outcomes have been better for fellow uncertainties Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. Each has shown signs of becoming a solid long-term fixture, albeit with considerably more stability than Parmelee has enjoyed. I'd like to see plenty of all three, as well as Pedro Florimon, in the second half, so as to help inform offseason decisions regarding the positions they play. 5) Don't be afraid to lose. I'm certainly not advocating that the Twins try and lose. That's not how professional sports teams operate, nor should they. But all decisions should be aimed at the betterment of individual young players, not giving the team a better chance to win. At the end of the day, the only real difference between losing 85 games and 95 games is draft position. The Twins have had picks in the top four in each of the past two seasons, and with those picks they have added Byron Buxton -- now viewed as the consensus top prospect in baseball -- and Kohl Stewart -- ranked this week by Keith Law as the game's No. 30 prospect despite being drafted out of high school about a month ago. Circling back to the Parmelee example, if the Twins think he was struggling because he was overwhelmed and needed to get things figured out in a lower-pressure environment, fair enough. But if they felt his struggles were affecting the team's ability to win... at this point, who cares?

Buyers or Sellers Just 1.5 games behind Detroit in the Central and three out in the Wild Card race, Cleveland has been the American League's biggest surprise. Staring up at a stacked Tigers squad that last year pulled away with a 44-32 record in the second half en route to a World Series berth, you'd better believe that the Indians are looking to add at the deadline. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4821[/ATTACH] What They Need The Indians could use some help at the top of the rotation, where the talented yet inconsistent Justin Masterson currently leads the way, and have been linked to Matt Garza among others. The Twins obviously can't offer anything in the way of high-end starting pitching. Cleveland may not be prepared to make the kind of aggressive moves necessary to garner that kind of talent, anyway. Although in the thick of things presently, this is a flawed team that is still in the midst of a rebuilding project geared toward fielding a title contender once Trevor Bauer (hopefully) figures things out and top prospects like Francisco Lindor and Danny Salazar are prepared to make an impact. It would be short-sighted to part with any premium prospect talent in the -- probably futile -- hope of catching the Tigers, but smaller deals aimed at improving, say, a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA would make more sense. This is where the Tribe might find a match in the Twins. What Might Work Intra-divisional trades are somewhat rare but Cleveland and Minnesota have hooked up on minor post-deadline deals in recent years, one sending Carl Pavano to the Twins and another sending Jim Thome to the Indians. If the two clubs were to connect again this year, I'd expect a similar non-blockbuster swap. Cleveland has been a little weak at DH, where 42-year-old Jason Giambi has been the principal recipient of at-bats. Ryan Doumit could be a fit there, although with Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher on hand, the Indians are already pretty well stocked on 1B/DH types. In the bullpen, any one of the Jared Burton/Casey Fien/Brian Duensing group is a candidate. Chris Perez is firmly locked in as the closer and is controlled through next year, essentially ruling Cleveland out as a Glen Perkins destination, but beyond Perez the Indians only have a couple reliable relief options. Vinnie Pestano, a bullpen ace over the last two years, was recently demoted from the setup role. Sleeper Targets Mitch Brown - RHP - Rookie League - 19 years old A second-round draft pick in 2012 out of Century High School in Minnesota, Brown enjoyed a solid pro debut last year but has had a tough follow-up in 2013. He started out in Low-A, pitched poorly, landed on the DL for six weeks, and has since been pitching (poorly) in the Arizona Rookie League. Potential buy-low guy with added appeal thanks to the local ties. Might not be in play for anything the Twins have to offer, even with the poor results this season. Jesus Aguilar - 1B - AA - 23 years old If the Twins are looking to add more depth to their future first base equation, Aguilar would be a worthwhile name to look at. Right-handed hitter with a little pop and the ability to draw a walk. He currently has a .760 OPS in Double-A. Tony Wolters - 2B/C - High A - 21 years old Mired behind four superior middle infield prospects in Cleveland's system (Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Ronny Rodriguez and Jose Ramirez) Wolters has transitioned this year to catcher. Opposing teams have run wild on him, attempting a whopping 51 steals in 31 games, so who knows how long that experiment will last. The Twins have no such concerns about overloaded infield depth, and Wolters has shown some decent offensive ability in four pro seasons. Austin Adams - RHP - AA - 26 years old Interesting case, this one. A former shortstop in college who converted to pitching in the pros, Adams performed well as a starter in the low levels of the minors with a big fastball that ranked as the best in Cleveland's system. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2012 season, but this year Adams is back pitching out of the bullpen, where he has racked up tons of strikeouts (49 in 34 innings) while registering a 2.65 ERA. His control is iffy and he's pretty old for a prospect (he'll turn 27 in August) but if the Twins were going to give up an established relief arm he'd be an interesting one to bring back. Dream Target Dorssys Paulino - SS - Low A - 18 years old Lindor, who is backing up his top prospect status with a great season at High-A, isn't going anywhere. Paulino, another shortstop prospect playing in the Midwest League as a teenager, might be a more realistic possibility, if the Twins could package enough talent. He's a long way from the majors and he's hitting just .238 this season, but Paulino has big upside and would instantly give the Twins a viable prospect at shortstop, something they have lacked for a long, long time.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4809[/ATTACH]I've tried to rationalize my way out of it. I've tried reconciling the deep divide between my heart and my brain. Truly, it has been one of the most difficult instances of my emotions as a fan clashing with my insights as an analyst. But at the end of the day, I can't escape from what I know deep down to be true: The Twins ought to trade Glen Perkins. And passing on the opportunity to do so could go down as a critical mistake. It was an excellent article from Dave Cameron on FanGraphs last week that served as the tipping point. In discussing the stated commitments of the Twins and Mets to build around their talented young closers, Cameron points to Joakim Soria as a cautionary tale. The Royals repeatedly refused to shop their elite closer when they had a chance, and ended up getting bitten. Soria never pitched for a good team in Kansas City and the Royals got nothing in return for him when he left because he got hurt. Soria is hardly the lone example; Cameron also points to the top ten under-30 closers from the 2010 season (as ranked by WAR) and finds that -- without exception -- every single one has since lost his hold on the closer role due to performance or injury. Every. Single. One. Even before I came across this column, I was having difficulty convincing myself that trading Perkins isn't the most logical course of action for this rebuilding Twins franchise. The southpaw has emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in the game and his value has never been higher. In addition to carrying the vaunted "proven closer" label, Perkins ranks 14th among MLB relievers in ERA (one spot ahead of Mariano Rivera), seventh in xFIP and 15th in K/9 rate. His contract is extremely team-friendly -- perhaps the best in baseball for a high-end closer. In addition to his flat-out dominance on the mound, Perkins appeals to me as a Twins fan for a variety of other reasons. He's a local guy who grew up in Stillwater and attended college at my alma mater, the University of Minnesota. He's friendly to bloggers and fans. He's hilarious and forward-thinking. He gives back to the community. In many ways, Perkins is the perfect fit in a Twins uniform, which makes this such a sticky issue. But with his value at an all-time high, and numerous contenders in serious need of a lockdown reliever for the ninth, it stands to reason that he could bring in a sizable haul that may supplement multiple areas of need for this retooling Minnesota franchise. How does that weigh against the value that Perkins provides to the team? Right now he's closing out meaningless games for a club headed toward 90-plus losses. When the Twins return to a competitive state -- hopefully within the next year or two -- the closer's innings will obviously become far more important, but we're still talking about a guy who will end up throwing around 65 innings per year if he stays healthy. As we're seeing this season, Perkins is a victim to the institutional suppression of closers, limited to pitching in very specific situations and therefore restricted from helping the team in many times of need. Despite the fact that he is easily the Twins' best pitcher, he ranks seventh among relievers in innings pitched. He also ranks 101st in the majors. Perk is as good as it gets but his impact is severely lessened by Ron Gardenhire's stringent adherence to traditional closer usage (not that this differentiates Gardy from the rest of the league's managers). Obviously, it all comes down to what offers are out there. But if Terry Ryan has a chance to add multiple quality prospects in exchange for a reliever, he may very well regret saying no. History shows that, as phenomenal as Perkins is right now, there's significant risk tied to his future. History also shows that contending teams have a tendency to overpay for closers at the deadline -- look no further than the Twins for a recent example. I'd hate to lose Perkins, and I'm sure Ryan would too. Because of this, I know that a trade won't occur unless an offer really knocks the GM's socks off. If that offer comes, though, Ryan must pull the trigger. It will be the biggest bummer of a season that's been full of them, but this 2013 campaign has been all about present sacrifices for future gains.

I can still vividly recall writing up this Prospect Rundown late in the 2011 season. The article recapped the campaigns of each of my Top 10 Twins prospects, and the results were... depressing. While the big-league club was wrapping up one of its worst seasons ever, the farm system was in a state of disarray, with the top name fresh off Tommy John surgery and many of the other prominent prospects saddled by poor performance or injury. With a few exceptions (most notably Miguel Sano's explosive season in Elizabethton), finding glimmers of positivity anywhere within the system around this time was a challenge. It was about the lowest I had ever been on the franchise in my years as a writer. What a difference a couple years can make. Today, Minnesota's system stands out as the finest in the game. Not only does it shine at the top end, where Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were recently ranked by Baseball America as two of the three best prospects in baseball, but the depth of this organization's minor-league success is pretty incredible. I've been even more struck by it after researching the systems of other teams for our Trade Talk series; when you look through the top 10-20 for other organizations, invariably you find numerous cases where stocks have dropped. That is, of course, the volatile nature of prospects. But it hasn't been true for the Twins this year. Checking in on Twins Daily's preseason Top 10 Prospects, we find that -- from top to bottom -- almost everything is pointing in the right direction. With the club in Minnesota on its way to a third straight 90-plus loss season, the unrivaled success of this group could not be more important. 10. Max Kepler, OF 2013 Stats (A): 81 PA, .288/.358/.521, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB Kepler missed most of the first half with an elbow injury, but since joining the Cedar Rapids Kernels in mid-June he has made up for lost time with a red-hot start. After flashing minimal power in his first two seasons at rookie ball, the athletic German exploded with 31 extra-base hits in 59 games at Elizabethton last year and he has carried that forward with 10 XBH through his first 18 contests at Low-A. 9. Trevor May, RHP 2013 Stats (AA): 95 IP, 3.98 ERA, 93/41 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP May led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year, and has unsurprisingly racked up the whiffs at a similar rate this year. The biggest hurdle for the right-hander was always going to be improving his spotty command, and he's made progress in that department. His 3.9 BB/9 rate -- while far from great -- is the lowest of his career, and he's been getting better and better of late with only nine walks in 37 innings since the start of June (2.2 BB/9). 8. J.O. Berrios, RHP 2013 Stats (A): 63.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 72/20 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP There are only a handful of teenagers pitching in the Midwest League, and the 19-year-old Berrios stands out from that group with a 10.2 K/9 rate that ranks in the top five overall. He's given up a few more hits than you'd like to see thanks to a .374 BABIP, but the shiny K/BB ratio demonstrates that the kid's filthy stuff is playing well against advanced hitters. 7. Eddie Rosario, 2B 2013 Stats (A+/AA): 333 PA, .312/.369/.493, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 59 R, 4/13 SB With all the buzz surrounding Miguel Sano, Rosario's midseason promotion to New Britain slipped under the radar to some degree, but he certainly deserves plenty of recognition. He's the third-youngest second baseman to play in the Eastern League this year and is holding his own (.275/.353/.418) after dominating the Florida State League, where his .903 OPS led his position by nearly 100 points. In an organization that has really struggled to produce middle infielders, Rosario's continued success is hugely encouraging. 6. Kyle Gibson, RHP 2013 Stats (AAA/MLB): 104.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 86/29 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Gibson pitched extremely well in Triple-A over the first half before finally getting the call to Minnesota in late June. Since joining the Twins, he has had his ups and downs. So it goes for a rookie getting his first exposure to big-league sluggers. Overall, it's been an extremely positive campaign for the 25-year-old, who has allowed just four home runs in 104 innings while consistently flashing mid-90s velocity. 5. Alex Meyer, RHP 2013 Stats (AA): 61 IP, 3.69 ERA, 73/27 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP Acquired in exchange for Denard Span during the offseason, Meyer has lived up to his "power pitcher" billing by racking up 73 strikeouts in 61 innings at Double-A. His 10.8 K/9 rate ranks second among pitchers in the Eastern League with 60 or more innings. Meyer has also been extremely stingy with the hits, holding the opposition to a .225 average with only three home runs. Unfortunately, Meyer has been sidelined for more than a month due to a shoulder injury, so he's the biggest question mark on this list at the moment. 4. Oswaldo Arcia, OF 2013 Stats (AAA/MLB): 312 PA, .283/.362/.475, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 37 R, 3/4 SB During his brief time in Triple-A, Arcia raked, posting a .930 OPS as a 22-year-old with no prior experience at the level. The reason his time there was so short is that he's been busy building a Rookie of the Year case in the majors, where his powerful swing has provided an unexpected jolt for the Twins lineup. 3. Aaron Hicks, OF 2013 Stats (MLB): 238 PA, .205/.271/.372, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 32 R, 6/8 SB After a breakout season in Double-A last year, Hicks made the jump straight to the majors out of spring training. His first few weeks on the job were as brutal as could be, but the 23-year-old has shown steady progress over the course of the season, which is exactly what you'd hope to see. Since the beginning of May, he has a .787 OPS with seven homers and 18 total extra-base hits in 41 games. Solid production for a rookie center fielder with strong defensive skills. 2. Byron Buxton, OF 2013 Stats (A/A+): 370 PA, .341/.422/.543, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 75 R, 33/45 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]4762[/ATTACH]What more is there to say at this point? Buxton has firmly established himself as the best prospect in baseball, displaying elite skills across the board while posting monster numbers as a teenager facing more experienced competition. Average, power, discipline, speed, defense... it's all there. Buxton is the total package. 1. Miguel Sano, 3B 2013 Stats (A+/AA): 340 PA, .292/.385/.611, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 64 R, 9/12 SB Not to be outdone, Sano has put up some pretty incredible numbers of his own. He made a mockery of the Florida State League before earning a promotion to Double-A, where he has had some contact issues but is continuing to crush the ball. Sano is the best power-hitting prospect in the minors, and he's backing that up with a full-season home run pace approaching 40.