Nick Nelson

Download attachment: glen-perkins.jpg Ron Gardenhire told reporters over the weekend that he would have "no problem" with Glen Perkins assuming closer duties for his club moving forward. Well, you'd hope not. Since Matt Capps was officially placed on the disabled list on July 17, Perkins has received the lion's share of save chances, converting all seven of his opportunities while registering a 1.74 ERA and holding opponents to a .136 batting average. In 20 2/3 innings during that span, he has posted a stellar 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Perkins has backed up his breakout 2011 campaign by posting nearly identical numbers here in 2012. Last year, in 61 2/3 innings, he allowed 17 earned runs (2.48 ERA) on 55 hits while striking out 65 and walking 21. This year, in 60 1/3 innings, he has allowed 17 earned runs (2.54 ERA) on 52 hits while striking out 66 and walking 15. Eerily similar. With that consistency, the lefty has established himself as one of the league's best relievers, and if there truly is some mystical mental trait required to successfully pitch in the ninth inning, he's got it. He has "closer" written all over him. That's great news for the Twins, especially from a financial standpoint. Back in March, they signed Perkins to a three-year, $10.3 million extension with a team option, so they control his rights through 2016. Here's how his salaries would reflect on payroll compared to other designated closers over the past six years: [TABLE] Year Closer Cost 2007 Joe Nathan $5.25M 2008 Joe Nathan $6M 2009 Joe Nathan $11.25M 2010 Jon Rauch & Matt Capps ~$4M + Wilson Ramos 2011 Joe Nathan & Matt Capps $18.4M 2012 Matt Capps $4.75M 2013 Glen Perkins $2.5M 2014 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2015 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2016 Glen Perkins $4.5M [/TABLE] Clearly, the Twins place a premium on the value of the closer role and they've paid handsomely for reliability there over the years. So the idea of Perkins locking up that spot over the next few seasons is exciting. It should be noted that, in his case, the above numbers are slight underestimates (he has performance bonuses built into his contract for games finished that haven't been made public), but nevertheless he'll be the most inexpensive ninth-inning man the Twins have employed for many years. This is as it should be. There's certainly no guarantee that the Twins will be competitive next year, and it makes no sense for a non-competitive team to spend big money for someone to close out wins. The funds saved on a closer can be redirected toward strengthening the bullpen's overall depth (they'll need a new "relief ace" type to fill Perkins' previous role – no small matter) and supplementing other areas of the ballclub. I think it's safe to say nobody has a problem with Perkins taking that closer role and running with it for the next several years. Click here to view the article

Another ugly season is in the rearview mirror, so now we can finally turn our focus to the only question that has really been relevant since the team faded out of contention in June or July: How do we fix this thing? Fortunately, Twins Daily is ready to provide you with all the information you'll need entering this pivotal winter with the latest in our acclaimed line of annual e-books, the 2014 Offseason Handbook. As always, this graphically rich PDF will put you in the shoes of the Twins' general manager, offering up a comprehensive and entertaining portrayal of the offseason landscape.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Inside, you will find payroll analysis, available free agents at every position, trade candidates, organizational depth breakdowns, arbitration scenarios and much more; with all these details at hand, it's up to you to decide the best approach for getting the franchise back on track within realistic parameters. Download attachment: 2014-handbook-cover.jpg Also included in the Handbook is a 30+ minute interview with general manager Terry Ryan, exploring the organization's outlook on many offseason topics. If you order now, you can lock up your copy of the 2014 Offseason Handbook for just $6.95. Now available for immediate delivery! Now that the offseason has arrived, Twins fans can once again feel a sense of optimism and hope as the club seeks to build toward a brighter future. Just what options will be on the table for Terry Ryan and Company in the coming months? Order your Offseason Handbook today and find out. Want to see a sample? Take a look at our 2013 Offseason Handbook and read last year's handbook. Click here to view the article

Equipped with an unhealthy obsession with sunflower seeds, Parker Hageman blends statistical analysis, scouting acumen and a dash of wit into his breakdowns. A founding member of the TwinsCentric consortium, Hageman has provided content for the Offseason GM Handbooks, Maple Street Press Twins Annuals (2010 and '11) as we as the Minnesota Twins 2010 Official Team Yearbook. In addition to the TwinsCentric portfolio, he has contributed elsewhere including RotoWorld, Baseball Prospectus Annual 2017, The Hardball Times 2009, '10 and '11 Season Previews, and has been a consulting writer for Inside Edge, a scouting service for baseball teams and media outlets. A graduate of St Cloud State University and current resident of Chanhassen, Hageman lives with his wife, Heather, and their three children who yearn for the off-season so that they can have the TV back. You can follow him on twitter at @ParkerHageman. Click here to view the article

As the Twins put the All-Star Game behind them and gear up for the final 68 games on the schedule, they face much uncertainty. They're only six games below .500 -- a marked improvement from recent years -- and although they trail the Tigers by 10.5 games in the Central, they are within seven games of a wild-card spot. While it's nice to be in a spot where contention is a feasible scenario, we've got to keep in mind that the Twins are still behind seven other AL clubs in the wild-card race and -- more importantly -- they just aren't a great team. Not right now, anyway. As such, the focus needs to be on taking steps to build that great team for next year and beyond. This means auditioning young talents here in the final months, and making decisions on which current players are going to be a part of the long-term picture. Below, we'll take a look at the case for extending the contracts of four different players who deserve consideration for various reasons. Download attachment: deal-or-no-deal.jpg KURT SUZUKI He represented the Twins at Tuesday's All-Star Game, and will almost certainly go down as one of the most successful free agent signings in franchise history. Should the Twins keep him around going forward? Why they should: Suzuki has been very solid offensively. He leads all AL catchers in batting average (.309) and on-base percentage (.365) and his impressive approach at the plate -- signified by a 25/23 K/BB ratio -- makes it easier to believe that his success is legit despite poor numbers over the past four years. Why they shouldn't: A 30-year-old who is enjoying a career season on a one-year deal is typically a guy you try to trade. His .760 OPS has been largely dependent on his ability to hit singles, and that skill hasn't always manifested in the past and probably won't going forward if his current .328 BABIP slinks back toward his career mark of .274. My Take: NO DEAL. I believe that the future of this team at catcher is Josmil Pinto. While Suzuki would be a nice backup to have around, I somehow doubt he'll be interested in being paid like one considering that he made the All-Star team as a starter this season. The Twins did very well to buy low on the backstop during the offseason, but it'd be a mistake to re-up now with his value (perhaps artificially) high. KENDRYS MORALES Download attachment: Kendrys-Morales-Twins.jpg Morales' agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson this week that his client is open to a long-term deal with the Twins, which is unsurprising considering that Boras tried fruitlessly to score a multi-year contract for Morales during the offseason and won't have an easier time doing so this winter if his client's bat doesn't wake up. Why they should: Although Morales has gotten off to a slow start, with an ugly .582 OPS through 33 games, he has a long track record of hitting and would give the Twins a veteran building block in the lineup as they gradually add young talent around him. Plus, given his current situation and his probable aversion to another offseason of frustrating uncertainty, they could perhaps strike a pretty good bargain. Why they shouldn't: Morales is 31 and not in the greatest of shape. His bat looks slow right now, and it's hard to tell how much that's attributable to rust. Since Joe Mauer will be holding down first base for the foreseeable future, Morales would be essentially limited to designated hitter here, and that's a pretty easy spot to fill. My Take: DEAL. I'm probably in the minority on this but I trust Morales to return to his solid-hitting ways and I like the idea of having a proven veteran run producer (who happens to be Latin) at the heart of the order while young international players like Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco try to find their way. I'd look into a two-year, $15 million extension, or something along those lines. JOSH WILLINGHAM The Twins got an excellent deal on Willingham when they originally signed him before the 2012 season, and his 57 homers since joining the club lead all Minnesota players. He's set to become a free agent after this year; can the Twins afford to lose his slugging skills? Why they should: Willingham's 2013 campaign was ruined by injury, but he has rebounded this season at age 35. Despite missing some time with a wrist injury and batting only .212, the outfielder is on track to finish with an above-average OPS for the eighth time in his nine big-league seasons. His eight homers rank second on the team even though he's been limited to 49 games. Why they shouldn't: Willingham was a slow mover when he got here and his foot speed has only declined due to age and knee problems. The Twins need to get faster in the outfield, and they're also pretty well stocked with outfield prospects. My Take: NO DEAL. Giving a multi-year contract to a guy on the wrong side of 35 is almost always a bad idea, and while he can still crush the ball Willingham has been showing his age in a variety of ways. BRIAN DOZIER Dozier enters the contract extension conversation for very different reasons than the three guys above, who are all on the verge of free agency. Dozier is under control through 2018, so a long-term deal is a matter of cost certainty and perhaps buying out a year or two of his free agency. Why they should: Dozier just keeps getting better, and at a rapid pace. In his breakout 2013 season, he hit 18 homers, stole 14 bases and drew 51 walks; this year, he has already matched or surpassed all of those totals at the All-Star break. He ranks fourth among AL second basemen in OPS (.777) despite a .242 batting average that has been suppressed by a .257 BABIP. The Twins could probably save themselves some money in the long run by getting a deal done very soon. Why they shouldn't: He's already become a great player, and it's just hard to imagine that he's going to be able to keep improving. At age 27, it seems fair to expect that this season and perhaps his next few will be his best, and the Twins have the luxury of getting those pretty cheaply. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to unnecessarily commit to paying him a huge salary in five years at this point, and as one of the best infielders in the game right now Dozier would have the right to command it. My Take: NO DEAL. I just don't see much urgency. I like the idea of Dozier being a lifelong Twin, because he's a hell of a player and also a very likable/marketable guy, but it seems more logical to approach a long-term deal once he has reached his arbitration years. That might cost the Twins a little more, but they won't likely be hurting for cash any time soon. What do you think? Would you extend any of these four? Are there other names (Trevor Plouffe, Kevin Correia, Casey Fien) that you would add to the conversation? Sound off the comments section. Click here to view the article

The Twins truly might have the most talent-laded farm system in all of baseball, so ranking and profiling our selections for the Top 10 prospects over the past couple weeks has been a lot of fun. Today, we'll take a high-level look at that list as a whole and see what it tells us about the future of the franchise, both short-term and long-term. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, here's a rundown of the TD Top 10, with links to each story: 10. Trevor May, RHP 9. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 8. Jorge Polanco, 2B 7. Josmil Pinto, C 6. Jose Berrios, RHP 5. Eddie Rosario, 2B 4. Kohl Stewart, RHP 3. Alex Meyer, RHP 2. Miguel Sano, 3B 1. Byron Buxton, OF Arms Race Download attachment: top-prospects-03-alex-meyer.jpg The biggest thing that stands out about this list is the presence of five pitchers, including two in the top four. Last year's list featured four, but they were all ranked fifth or below, so there has clearly been some very positive movement on that front. As anyone who has been following the Twins over the past few years would surely agree, this is profoundly good news. Brace For Impact With the exceptions of Stewart, Berrios, Polanco and Thorpe, every player in our Top 10 is expected to begin the 2014 season in Double-A or above, meaning that six of these high-end prospects will be poised to jump to the majors at any time. A strong start, combined with injuries or struggles at the big-league level, could lead to the expedited arrival of several players on this list. Because of this, the '14 season has a chance to be the most exciting for fans in many years. National Recognition Here's where the members of our Top 10 have been ranked by three of the most respected national outlets for prospect coverage: MLB.com, ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. Buxton 1 | 1 | 1 Sano 3 | 8 | 14 Meyer 32 | 62 | 32 Stewart 61 | 76 | 54 Rosario 63 | 49 | 60 Berrios 77 | NR | 75 Pinto NR | NR | 56 Polanco NR | NR | NR Thorpe NR | NR | 101 May NR | NR | NR Top Heavy Download attachment: top-prospects-04-kohl-stewart.jpg Each of the organization's top three prospects would probably rank No. 1 for many teams around the league, offering monstrous upside that is not far from being tapped. Buxton and Sano have both been widely hailed as potential MVP contenders while Meyer has all the makings of a frontline starter as long as he can stay healthy. That's not even mentioning Stewart, the top high school pick in last year's draft, whose distance from the majors is the only thing holding him back from elite status. By this time next year, we may be ranking his upside above Meyer's. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg The second-best pitcher in Minnesota's rotation is a 29-year-old journeyman with five innings of previous major-league experience who has issued 36 walks in 46 innings this season. Obviously, that speaks to how bad the club's starting pitching has been, but it also speaks to the success Sam Deduno has enjoyed in spite of his outrageously bad control. The right-hander has tallied five quality starts in eight turns, and with a little run support on Sunday he would have improved to 5-0 on the season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's a fascinating pitcher to watch. His erratic tendencies are unparalleled; he's averaging 7.0 BB/9 – among MLB pitchers with 40-plus innings pitched, only the train wreck Jonathan Sanchez has a worse rate and no one else is close. Yet, up to this point Deduno has been able to work around the extreme control issues by limiting damage when the ball is put in play. Five qualifying pitchers in the American League (Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price and Chris Sale) are yielding a lower batting average lower than Deduno's .228. Is this a sustainable recipe for success? Probably not. It's tough to expect anyone to maintain a .250 BABIP, and he's been fortunate to strand as many walks as he has. Then again, a free pass only gives the batter one base, and if you're not allowing the big hits, things generally won't get out of hand. Really, it's the same bend-don't-break philosophy that applies to a successful pitch-to-contact guy like Scott Diamond, though with a very different formula. Deduno is so far on the other end of the spectrum from this organization's typical pitching mold that it's hard to believe he was even given a chance. Typically the Twins have shown a strong preference for strike-throwers, even if it means they're among the most hittable pitchers in the league (Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are great examples). While he's unbelievably wild, Deduno has been extremely tough to square up, and his minor-league career – where he allowed only 7.6 hits per nine innings on average – suggests that's no fluke. Regardless of what moves the Twins make this offseason, it is a virtual certainty that at least a couple spots at the bottom of the rotation will be up for grabs next spring among a number of borderline pitchers already within the organization. When stacked up against the likes of Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and others, Deduno is far more likely to issue a walk but also far less likely to give up a hit or home run. At the end of the day, that might make him a more effective pitcher. Certainly that has been the case this season. Click here to view the article

Late in Sunday's game against the Rays, the Twins reached their breaking point with Brian Dozier. With the game tied and runners on the corners for Tampa in the 10th inning, the rookie shortstop scooped up a ground ball and took the sure out at first rather than throwing home to cut down the go-ahead run or attempting a tough inning-ending double play. After the game, Ron Gardenhire seemed to let Dozier off the hook: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And yet, Dozier sat on Monday. He sat again on Tuesday, and after the game it was announced he'd been demoted to Triple-A, with Pedro Florimon (and his .654 OPS in Rochester) coming up to replace him on the roster. It's a perplexing strategy for the Twins. Dozier will almost certainly be back up when rosters expand in September, making this a two-week demotion. How much good can that really do? Download attachment: dozierfields.jpg At the same time, Dozier has been roundly awful for a full three months, so the move is easily justifiable. The only reasons he's lasted this long are because Gardenhire fiercely supports him and because he may be the organization's only hope for an internal solution at shortstop next year. Unfortunately, even those factors couldn't protect him after committing 15 errors (most for any AL shortstop despite the fact that he's only played in 84 games) while hitting .234/.271/.332, including .152/.237/.273 after what appeared to be a breakout three-hit game in Boston on August 2nd. Only one qualifying player in the majors (Justin Smoak) has a worse OPS than Dozier. In addition to his league-leading error total, he's had a number of misplays in the field – including Sunday's questionable and costly decision – that don't show up on the stat sheet. His plate discipline, which was a primary strength in the minors, has been dreadful, as he's drawn only 16 walks against 58 strikeouts in 340 plate appearances. Granted, the 25-year-old showed a few positive signs, namely some home run power and base-stealing proclivity, but this was an overwhelmingly discouraging major-league debut. At this point it's extremely difficult to look at him as a realistic starting option for next year. He just doesn't have any substantial strength to fall back on. Being sent to Triple-A after struggling in a major-league stint has been known to help young players in the past – look no further than Chris Parmelee for a recent example – and we can only hope that will happen here. But when you consider that Dozier was given an incredibly long leash, isn't all that young and was never an exceptional prospect to begin with, it's pretty tough to dismiss his initial struggles as a fluke. More than likely, he'll be another suspect among many others vying for a middle infield spot next year. Just another passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Click here to view the article

* The Twins' offense has been a very pleasant surprise in the first week of the season. Though it hasn't always been pretty, and sloppy play from opposing defenses in Chicago and Cleveland were undeniable contributors, the Twins have scored 38 runs through their first six games. The biggest story in the lineup is Chris Colabello. He has already piled up 11 RBI in five starts after hitting .349 in spring play. This guy is just sitting dead red. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Colabello has struck out five times in 24 plate appearances (a promising early reduction from last year's sky-high 32 percent K-rate) and he's batting .500 on balls in play. Obviously that's not sustainable, but it speaks to how well he's driving the ball. He's been an unexpected anchor in the Twins' lineup, and right now he's appointment viewing for fans. Colabello feels like the biggest singular reason the Twins are at 3-3 after a season-opening road trip where the weather was crisp but the play often was not. Shaded by all the crazy elements of his journey, Collabello's immense success right off the bat has been energizing for a fan base that was notably subdued at the outset of the season. * Jason Kubel's fast start has been largely overshadowed by the heroics of Colabello, but it's no less encouraging. Kubel has been in the starting lineup for three games, and has delivered multiple hits in each. Sunday's 2-for-4 effort lifted his average to .412. While you can only put so much stock into these things, Kubel showed distinct improvement over the course of spring camp. He was whiffing constantly in the early games, but by the later weeks was connecting with frequency. I remember being struck by Ron Gardenhire's answer to a question about Kubel after a Grapefruit League game in Ft. Myers. "I worry about some things, I don't worry about Kube," he said. "Kube can hit. He's always been able to hit. If he just goes out and gets his swinging in and gets comfortable, the guy can light it up, I know that. He's healthy, I know he can hit." It was a particularly matter-of-fact response about a player who was designated for assignment by one team and benched by another during a challenging 2013, but Gardy echoes Kubel's assertion that a lingering quad injury was primarily responsible for those struggles. If that proves to be the case, he could turn out to be quite a find, because Kubel was an above-average hitter (by OPS+) for six straight seasons prior to last year. Gardenhire has done a good job of playing match-ups and deploying the righty-masher strategically so far, but that essentially goes out the window now that Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia are both batting sore wrists. For the time being, it appears that Kubel will be a regular in the outfield. Hopefully the manager's confidence continues to be rewarded. Download attachment: kubelhigh5.jpg Photo by David Banks, USA TODAY Sports * While these early games have been marked by a refreshing uptick in offense, it's been the same old story for the pitching staff. After leading the majors in hits allowed in 2013, the Twins have allowed double-digit knocks in each of their first six contests. The first turn through the rotation produced one quality start, from (who else?) Kevin Correia. On Sunday, Ricky Nolasco delivered his second straight clunky outing -- an inauspicious debut for the prized offseason acquisition. Nolasco throws a lot of breaking stuff, and in his first two starts we've seen too many flat pitches and floaters. But at the same time, this is a guy who's pitched in southern Florida for the last eight years, and is now trying to spin all kinds of pitches in the chill of the springtime Midwest. I suspect that as the weather heats up, so too will Nolasco. The rotation could use a stabilizing force. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: blackburn.jpg It took almost six hours, but the Twins were able to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Sunday. To do so, they needed to overcome another non-quality start from Nick Blackburn, who yielded four runs over six innings in what sadly qualifies as one of his best outings this season. The right-hander's results weren't bad until Corey Hart took him deep for a three-run homer with two outs in the fifth, but he had been dancing on a tight rope all day. Milwaukee put runners in scoring position in each of the first four innings only to come away with one run; indeed, Hart's back-breaker seemed inevitable. It was a typically ineffective effort from Blackburn, who has turned in only one quality start in 10 outings this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Granted, this isn't necessarily an earth-shattering development. We've seen him struggle before. But in past instances, his periods of turmoil have directly coincided with arm ailments, as his two worst seasons have both been followed by surgeries. This year, Blackburn's health did not seem to be in question while he cruised through spring training with a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 17 innings, but his performance since the start of April has been inexplicably dreadful and hardly reminiscent of his glory days. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was a valuable starter – an inexpensive, above-average innings-eater. During that period, he made up for high hit rates by commanding the zone and hitting his spots relentlessly, averaging around a walk per game. This season, he has issued multiple walks in seven of his 10 starts and thrown a career-low 60 percent of his pitches for strikes. Blackburn routinely ranks as one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and that's certainly been true this year; his opponents' batting average of .329 is nearly 20 points higher than any qualifying starter. A guy like that simply can't survive with mediocre command, and that's where he's at right now. We're not seeing many signs that it's ready to turn around, either. Unfortunately, the Twins have little choice but to stick with him at this point. With Carl Pavano and P.J. Walters both on the disabled list, the club is already short on starters. Beyond that, they have a vested interest in letting Blackburn work through these issues and try to recapture the form that made him effective in the past. Like it or not, he's under contract next year for $5.5 million, and if the Twins are going to swallow that money and cut bait they'd better be completely certain he doesn't have it in him any more to produce the way he did in his early years. I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion yet, and neither are they I'm sure. But the team's patience can't last forever. Especially with a guy who hasn't been able to put together a full season since 2009. Click here to view the article

Things are pretty bleak for Twins fans these days. The club is caught amidst yet another mid-summer free-fall, the coaches and medical staff are once again coming under fire for their handling of injuries, and we're left to ponder who can be called up from Triple-A to plug yet another rotation hole while the offense scuffles. The negative storylines are too easy to grasp onto at this point, so in an effort to change the tone a bit, I thought I'd focus on a few positive developments that are currently taking place within the organization. Times are tough, but there are some very good and very meaningful things happening outside of the general misery that has characterized Twins Baseball lately. Let's dig into a few: 1) Top draft pick Nick Gordon is killing the ball at Elizabethton. It was a bit of a surprise when the Twins announced that they'd be sending Gordon -- freshly added out of high school with the fifth overall pick in the draft -- to advanced rookie ball in Elizabethton rather than the Gulf Coast League, where nearly all prep players start their careers. The club clearly had confidence in Gordon and so far that has proven to be more than justified, as the shortstop is off to a red-hot start at a level where most players are older and more experienced. Through his first 16 games, he's hitting .362 with two doubles, two triples, a homer and four steals. The strong debut puts Gordon on track to join a growing group of upper-echelon prospects within the Twins' system. 2) Jorge Polanco has been on fire since his surprising MLB stint. After joining the Twins a couple weeks ago as an emergency call-up, Polanco was quickly returned to his previous home in Ft. Myers, where he has been playing as though he'd like to get back to Minnesota in a hurry. In seven games since rejoining the Miracle, Polanco is hitting .367 with three doubles and two triples in 33 plate appearances. At this rate, it's hard to imagine he'll remain in Single-A for too much longer, even though he's one of the youngest players in the Florida State League. 3) Fast-rising J.O. Berrios is now in Double-A. If you've been regularly following the minor-league reports here on Twins Daily, then you know that Berrios has been on fire for months now, consistently turning in spectacular outings in which he's blowing away opposing hitters. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start since May 1st and his strikeout rate has been off the charts. This week, the Twins finally decided to show some mercy to FSL batters by promoting Berrios to Class-AA New Britain. The righty just turned 20 in late May, so he'll become the youngest player to appear in the Eastern League this year by a fairly wide margin. What Berrios is doing right now -- especially as an undersized specimen at a skinny six foot zero -- is remarkable. It will be interesting to see how he adapts in Double-A, but if he falters a bit, it's important to keep in mind the context of his situation. 4) Free agent success stories. There's understandably a lot of talk right now about Ricky Nolasco; the team's biggest free agent splash ever has thus far proven to be a poor investment. Nolasco follows in the footsteps of fellow free agent signing Mike Pelfrey, who also performed horribly for a stretch before admitting that he'd been bothered by an elbow injury. Very frustrating. But at the other end of the spectrum, the Twins have had two smashing successes in the free agent arena this year, and that's something that has been very rare for this franchise (in large part because they've been so unwilling to spend). Download attachment: hughes2.jpg Phil Hughes has been one of the American League's better starters, with a league-leading 9.27 K:BB ratio. He's 27 and locked up for the next two seasons at a very reasonable price. You'd have a hard time finding a contract signed during the past offseason that looks better than his right now. Then there's Kurt Suzuki, who has been a revelation on a one-year, $2.75 million deal. With Josmil Pinto needing more seasoning in the minors, Suzuki has been just what the doctor ordered, holding his own both defensively and offensively. He was recently named as one of Minnesota's two All-Star representatives. Suzuki's shockingly strong performance is especially satisfying in light of the fact that John Buck -- who the Twins were reportedly "extremely close" to signing before they ended up going with Suzuki -- was just designated for assignment by the Mariners. 5) Chris Colabello is back at it. Easily one of the best parts of April was Colabello's monstrous performance out of the gates. A great guy and a great story, the well-traveled slugger was also an epic producer during the early weeks of the season, coming through with clutch hit after clutch hit (including a home run while his mother was interviewed on live TV). Watching Colabello fall into a tailspin in May was tough, but after spending some time in Triple-A he's back up with the Twins and once again hitting the ball with plenty of authority. He's only had 16 plate appearances since his return, but has already smashed two doubles and two homers. Will pitchers readjust? Perhaps. But for now, Colabello is once again giving us a tremendous individual story to root for while the team as a whole fades out of relevance. [/hr]Here's another happy note: Since the Twins beat the Mariners last night, you can get half off your L or XL pizza on Wednesday by ordering online at PapaJohns.com with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! 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Download attachment: lirianosulk.jpg It would be nice if the Twins kept up their recent winning pace through late July, climbing back into the AL Central picture after being left for dead in May. Unfortunately, their lack of starting pitching makes that difficult to realistically envision. In the more likely event that the Twins are firmly out of contention when the trade deadline rolls around, they'll find themselves in an unfamiliar position.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Only once in the past decade has the club behaved as a seller at the deadline; in 2007, seven games out in the AL Central, they traded Luis Castillo and his remaining salary to the Mets for two prospects. Even then they were confident that the heir apparent Alexi Casilla could step in and replace Castillo's modest production. If the Twins' current 8.5-game deficit in the standings hasn't shrunk significantly within a month, most would agree that it will be time to see what kind of value they can get for their movable assets. But who should they be looking to deal? The most obvious candidates are the guys in the final years of their contracts – such as Matt Capps, Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano – but none are likely to make a large impact for a contender so it's doubtful any GM is going to give up much for two months of service. The best the Twins can hope for by trading these players would be payroll relief and a B-prospect. Quality players with team-friendly contracts extending past this year – such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham – may do more to entice bidders, but the stakes are raised. In trading players with long-term value, returning good prospects is a must. Given the organization's spotty track record evaluating players from other teams in recent years, one can't help but worry about that a little. As I look over the roster, I see one player who could become an appealing, fungible trading chip at the deadline: Francisco Liriano. He's almost surely gone after this year, so shipping him out would be a no-brainer in a seller scenario. His current 1-7 record and 6.45 ERA aren't going to blow anyone away but opposing clubs might be more inclined to focus on his numbers since a bullpen demotion in early May: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 32-to-13 K/BB, .198 opponents' batting average, zero homers allowed. If the inconsistent lefty can maintain his improved production from the past month over the next month, he may actually become a legitimate commodity as the deadline looms, giving the Twins leverage that they probably won't have with any of the other walk-year players. It's something to root for even if the usual June winning spell comes to an end. Click here to view the article

After finishing the month of April ranked near the bottom of the American League in most categories, the Twins’ offense has undergone a stunning turnaround in May, in which they led the league in scoring through Monday. Prior to Tuesday's loss to the White Sox, the Twins had averaged 6.2 runs per game this month and had crossed the plate five or more times in eight of their past nine games. A sleeping beast awakened, indeed. Can this unit continue to excel and help keep the team hovering around .500?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That will largely be dependent on how young contributors like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Brian Dozier and Chris Parmelee progress, but even more so it may be dictated by the two veterans at the heart of the order. Justin Morneau pulled into a tie for sixth place in the American League with four RBI on Monday night, but his high ranking has more to do with opportunity than effectiveness. Morneau has started 35 of the Twins’ 36 games – 32 of them in the cleanup spot – and has routinely batted behind Joe Mauer (.426 OBP) and Josh Willingham (.377 OBP). Entering play Wednesday, Morneau had batted with more runners on base than any player in the majors save Prince Fielder, and while he’s done well in those situations, batting .326 with runners in scoring position (including 7-for-8 with the bases loaded), you also get the sense, based on his track record, that he’s been leaving plenty on the table. Morneau has uncharacteristically been limited to two home runs this season, including just one with runners on base. Although he appears healthy, he is slugging .424, which is 65 points below his career mark. Morneau is on pace for nearly 130 RBI this season even with a mere semblance of his usual power. Imagine what that number could look like if he were flashing more pop. We may actually be starting to see that now, as the 32-year-old has been hitting the ball with increasing authority recently, having tallied five doubles (and not coincidentally 10 RBI) in his past seven games. The man hitting in front of Morneau is another interesting case. After driving in 110 runs last year, Willingham is on pace for 72 this year. Like with Morneau, this can be attributed to decreased power – Willingham hasn’t homered in May and is well off last year’s pace despite a team-leading total of five – but the bigger culprit is a simple lack of hitting. Download attachment: Willingham.jpg It’s not that Willingham has been an offensive liability; he’s contributing to Morneau’s opportunities by getting on base at a .377 clip, thanks to a career-high walk rate. But walks don’t drive in runs and the slugging outfielder is batting just .204. In 39 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, he has collected only six hits. The Twins are relying on these two boppers to provide the brunt of the power in their lineup and produce runs. Morneau is trending up in that department and Willingham, despite his recent slump, has proven more than capable. If the heart of the lineup can start beating more steadily, this offense should be able to keep its rhythm. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: glen-perkins.jpg Late-inning leads have seemed so rare for the Twins that it's easy to overlook just how effectively the bullpen has been able to protect them. But make no mistake, Minnesota's relief unit has been among the finest in baseball this year. Only 44 times in their 110 games have the Twins carried a lead into the seventh inning, but in those games they are 34-7. When entering the eighth with a lead, they are 38-5. When entering the ninth with a lead, they're 42-1 (thank you, Mr. Perkins). Twins relievers rank third in the AL in ERA, second in WHIP, first in FIP and first in WAR (per FanGraphs). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The bullpen has without question been the greatest strength of this team. That's not exactly ideal; you'd certainly prefer to see a lineup and starting staff capable of building more leads rather than relief pitchers who can excel in the (often fruitless) late innings. But the Twins' top-notch bullpen has helped prevent the season from unraveling into total disaster, and the beauty of this group is that each member is fairly young and remains under team control through next year or beyond. It wasn't so long ago that the Twins' bullpen was a mess. In 2011, Twins relievers posted the highest ERA in the majors, with failed experiments like Jim Hoey and Dusty Hughes contributing to the chaos. That was uncharacteristic for an organization that has typically been great at uncovering overlooked arms capable of becoming crucial late-inning cogs. The Twins have regained that edge in the past couple seasons, with productive hurlers such as Jared Burton (whom Parker wrote a this terrific piece on), Casey Fien and Josh Roenicke being acquired either through waivers or on minor-league deals. By utilizing these avenues, and by producing a homegrown closer, Terry Ryan has been able to put together a unit that is not only effective, but cost-effective. Glen Perkins is presently the team's highest-paid reliever at $2.5 million; in 2011 the Twins were paying about $18.5 million for Joe Nathan and Matt Capps alone. Some salaries will escalate slightly next year, and performances may vary, but for the most part it looks like the Twins should be able to maintain a strong, inexpensive bullpen, allowing them to dedicate the bulk of offseason resources and attention to more needy areas. That's a relief, eh? Click here to view the article

* Florida's Jose Fernandez is the latest young star pitcher to be tabbed for Tommy John surgery, so elbow injuries have been the talk of baseball this week. Minnesota has plenty of experience in that department, most recently with first-round picks Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers. But currently, it's the wrist that has emerged as a major pain for young talents in the Twins organization. Oswaldo Arcia was bothered by a wrist injury last summer, and it has come back to hamper him again this year. After playing just four games for the Twins in April, he went on the disabled list. He rested for a bit, made it through an eight-game rehab stint, and then -- just when he was seemingly on the verge of returning to the big-league club -- it was revealed that the wrist is still bothering him. He has returned to playing in Rochester after a couple days off, but the fact that he's still feeling soreness in an area that has affected him dating back to last year is not good. Download attachment: top-prospects-01-byron-buxton.jpg Even more concerning is the situation that has arisen with Byron Buxton. The top prospect in baseball missed the first month of the season after hurting his wrist on a dive in the outfield during spring training, and then, after five rehab games in Ft. Myers, he aggravated the injury on a slide. He's now slated for an MRI and his prognosis going forward is unclear at best. Wrist injuries are a bummer for two reasons. For one thing, as Arcia and Josh Willingham have shown, they can be very slow to heal, and can linger for months. Secondly, they can take a real toll on a hitter's performance at the plate, even after he returns. (J.J. Hardy's 2010 season is a good example.) If either of those scenarios play out for Buxton or Arcia, it's going to be a tough pill to swallow, especially after the turmoil that we've seen with Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. This club just cannot catch a break with its young players. * Back before the start of spring training, I wrote about the trouble with counting on Jason Kubel, pointing out that his growing inability to make contact at the plate signaled ominous things for his 2014 season. Those concerns were muted in early April when the 32-year-old came out of spring training with a red-hot bat, but he's cooled off considerably in recent weeks and his strikeout issues have risen to the forefront. The veteran is now whiffing at an absolutely outrageous rate. Since April 20, Kubel has tallied multiple strikeouts in 12 of his 17 games. During that span, he has fanned in 32 of his 71 trips to the plate -- almost 50 percent. That's beyond bad. Overall, his 34 percent K-rate leads all major-leaguers and continues an upward trend we've seen over the past several seasons. I'd like to believe that there's some injury or correctable mechanical problem at play here, but when you look at the big picture it sure appears as though Kubel has declined to the point where he can't keep up with MLB pitching anymore. * On the flip side, Joe Mauer's alarming early-season strikeout surge seems to have subsided. The notorious contact hitter caused a lot of puzzlement while ranking among the most K-prone hitters in the league for much of April, but over the last few weeks he has looked more like himself. Over his past 12 games, Mauer has struck out only five times in 52 plate appearances. During that span, he is hitting .386 with a .462 on-base percentage. Tough to complain about that. [/hr] Since the Twins beat the Red Sox on Tuesday night thanks to a walk-off homer from Chris Parmelee, you can get 50% off your online order at PapaJohns.com on Wednesday. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: eddie-rosario.jpg With names like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer stealing the headlines, Eddie Rosario tends to get overlooked in the universe of Twins prospects. Rosario didn't appear on the Top 100 prospect lists for MLB.com nor Baseball America prior to this season despite impressive production in both 2011 and 2012, but he figures to find his way onto everyone's lists now after crushing in Ft. Myers during the first half and finishing with a solid showing in New Britain as a 21-year-old. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It's fairly rare for a kid of Rosario's age to hold his own in Double-A, and by all accounts the athletic Puerto Rican did so while demonstrating noticeable skill at his new defensive home. Rosario transitioned from center field to second base in 2012 as the Twins sought to shift some of their organizational strength to the infield, and as 1500 ESPN's Brandon Warne relays, the organization believes that Rosario now plays like someone "you'd never believe wasn't a natural second baseman." Of course, there's a problem here. While Rosario is reportedly adapting very well to second, the Twins have seen Brian Dozier lock down that position in the majors this year. Dozier has produced the best power-hitting season for a second baseman in franchise history, and his defense has been somewhere between good and elite. The organization liked Dozier plenty even before this breakout, so it seems safe to say that the 26-year-old isn't going anywhere soon. But what does that mean for Rosario? He could conceivably be moved back to the outfield, but Warne's article also noted that a scout suggested the prospect wasn't a good outfielder. Besides, Rosario doesn't have the offensive profile to stand out at a corner spot (center field, of course, is reserved for Byron Buxton). Rosario won't necessarily be ready for the majors next year, but he finished this season with a quality .742 OPS in Double-A (league average was .717) and he's now headed to the Arizona Fall League, where a strong performance could continue to raise his stock. And maybe that's exactly what the Twins are counting on. It is well known that the Twins are deep on position player prospects and relatively thin on pitchers, especially in the high levels. Swapping minor-league bats for arms has always been a logical play, but Buxton and Sano aren't going anywhere, leaving Rosario as the most highly regarded and expendable trade chip in the system. Losing an exciting talent like Rosario, who turns 22 in two weeks, would certainly hurt, but sacrifices need to be made in Minnesota's ongoing quest for starting pitchers with upside. And it's easy to see other clubs coveting him, perhaps even more so than Denard Span and Ben Revere a year ago. If Rosario's defense is truly coming along as well as reports suggest, his offensive upside would be tantalizing at a position where impact bats are difficult to come by. What do you think? Would you part with Rosario in return for an impact arm? Click here to view the article

About a month from today, Jamey Carroll will turn 38 years old. That will make the veteran infielder, signed by the Twins earlier this offseason to man shortstop over the next couple seasons, the same age as former Minnesota third baseman Corey Koskie. Of course, while Carroll is enjoying the best years of his pro baseball career, Koskie has been out of the game since 2006, when a concussion sustained in Milwaukee ended his days as a major-leaguer. An athletic baseball player with a tremendous passion for the game, cut down in his prime by an injury that seemed totally harmless at the time, even to him. I brought up the unfortunate parallel between Koskie and Justin Morneau after the latter had been sidelined for a month by a concussion suffered in 2010, and unfortunately, little has happened since then to dispel such allusions. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: Mouneau.jpg In the weeks and months following Morneau's initial incident, Twins trainers repeatedly talked about the "progress" he was making toward getting back on the field. He never returned in 2010, but embarked on an offseason program designed to get him back into playing shape while protecting his head. Again, "progress" was the go-to buzzword in all Morneau updates. The first baseman returned to the field for for 69 games last year, but was hardly the same player, and after re-triggering concussion symptoms on a fielding attempt in August, he was again shut down for the year. Now, Twins fans are left in the same state of limbo that they were a year ago, with the word "progress" once again being tossed around in the absence of any more substantive news. At this point, the word has basically lost all meaning, but Twins officials can hardly be blamed for falling back on it. As was the case last winter, they don't know what Morneau's status truly is, or what to expect from him when he shows up in Ft. Myers next month. That's very unfortunate. As Judd Zulgad wrote yesterday for ESPN 1500, the first baseman's situation is distinctly more worrisome than that of Joe Mauer, who by all accounts is feeling much stronger after a surgery-free offseason. It seems likely that Mauer will be able to play at a high level this year, and even if his balky knee prevents him from catching full-time, the club has added a couple intriguing backup options at catcher in Ryan Doumit and J.R. Towles (a former outstanding prospect who's worth keeping an eye on). But there's no one who can replace the value that a healthy Morneau provides, both on and off the field. Team insiders suggest that, with Michael Cuddyer gone, Morneau is the one player who can step in as a vocal clubhouse anchor, with the kind of fiery personality to rally the troops and avoid a catastrophe similar to last year. If Morneau can't go, not only will the Twins lack a slugging first baseman capable of pounding 30 home runs with 100-plus RBI -- they'll also lack an obvious candidate to provide true leadership on this club, whatever you believe that's worth. Certainly the league's award voters have recognized Morneau's value as stretching beyond his numbers. He won the AL MVP in 2006 with a questionable statistical case and placed second in 2008 with even lesser numbers, despite the Twins missing the playoffs. Mauer might be the Twins' best player, but Morneau is a vital cog. His uncertain (at best) status going forward is probably the No. 1 overarching concern that surrounds this 2012 team. For the sake of Twins fans – and him and his family more than anything – I hope his "progress" this offseason is a lot more meaningful than in past instances. Click here to view the article

The rarest and most coveted type of prospect in the Minnesota Twins' system has been the hard-throwing, dominant starting pitcher. Shortcomings in this area have been reflected in the big-league rotation, where a lack of front-end talent has been a primary downfall during the club's recent stretch of misery. There is no greater need in this organization than a pitcher with the ability to develop into a legitimate No. 1 who can miss bats and regularly shut down opposing lineups. For that reason, I consider Alex Meyer the single most important prospect the Twins have, even if he's not necessarily the best (or second-best). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: top-prospects-03-alex-meyer.jpg Fast Heat is Meyer's calling card. That was evident when he was named Mr. Baseball in the state of Indiana as a senior in high school, finishing 8-0 with 108 strikeouts and a 0.95 ERA in 51 innings for Greensburg High School. Meyer achieved the outstanding results by relying on a hard fastball and a sharp spike curve that set him apart from his prep peers. Following Meyer's senior year, the Red Sox tried to fish him away from a commitment to the University of Kentucky by offering him a massive $2 million signing bonus as a 20th-round pick, but the righty elected instead to join the Wildcats. He improved his stock with three strong seasons at UK and was selected in the first round, with the 23rd overall pick, by the Nationals in the 2011 draft. Faster It's common for high draft picks out of college to move quickly when they reach pro ball, and Meyer was no exception. In his first season as a member of the Nationals system, he cruised through two levels of Single-A, finishing with a 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 139/45 K/BB ratio in 25 starts. Over 129 innings, he allowed only 97 hits, holding the overmatched opposition to a .603 OPS. After putting together a great first season in the pros, Meyer soon found himself on the move, traded to Minnesota in exchange for Denard Span. His rapid ascent continued in the new organization as he headed straight to Double-A and continued to excel while piling up strikeouts at a phenomenal rate. Fastest Though his breaking ball has drawn rave reviews as a devastating secondary pitch, and his changeup is coming along, Meyer's fastball is the star of the show. Bearing down from his sky-scraping 6'9" frame, the heater routinely hurtles toward the plate in the upper-90s with natural life, and as he's aged into his mid-20s Meyer has only added velocity. While watching him pitch in the Arizona Fall League a few months ago, ESPN.com's prospect wonk Keith Law reported that Meyer was routinely working at 98 mph with the fastball and touching 99 often. Many observers, including Law, noted that the lanky right-hander touched triple digits on multiple occasions. That's a level of gas the Twins haven't gotten from a starter since... ever? Meyer was a dominant force in New Britain last year, striking out 28 percent of the batters he faced. His arsenal is almost certainly good enough to play at the highest level right now, and at 24 he has reached an age where many top prospects break into the majors if they haven't already. Let's get him up, right? Not So Fast... There are a few factors that will likely delay Meyer's arrival, at least a bit. The first is the logjam in the major-league rotation, created by the addition of multiple veteran free agents and the presence of three returning hurlers who are out of options. Meyer has better stuff than anyone currently slated to be in the starting five, even by the admission of one of those five, but there's no rush to throw him in there. He hasn't pitched above Double-A and still hasn't been added to the 40-man roster. There are more urgent decisions to be made on other starters in front of him. And Meyer isn't without his own warts. He's had some command issues, though nothing too alarming. It's fairly typical for pitchers his size to have to refine their location over time. Just look at Randy Johnson, who -- at a lanky 6'10" and 225 lbs. -- had a similar build. He had a major problem with walks early in his career before ultimately finding his groove and becoming a Hall of Famer. Meyer's control problems haven't been nearly as pronounced as those of a young Johnson, but still you get the sense the Twins would like to see him hit his spots a little more consistently before they give him a shot. The larger concern is health. Meyer was limited to 13 starts with the Rock Cats last year due to a shoulder injury that cost him about two months of the season. He came back and pitched well at the end of the year, carrying that over into the AFL, but shoulder soreness can be a lingering malady for many pitchers. Meyer's durability will be a question mark until he enjoys a prolonged period of clean health, and even if he does he'll still probably be held to a strict innings limit this year after throwing only 78 frames in 2013 (about 100 if you include the AFL). All of this means that, while Meyer is likely to make his major-league debut sometime this year, we probably won't see the full impact of his ability before 2015 at least. Until then, the term "ace in the hole" seems more than fitting. Previous 2014 Twins Daily Top Twins Prospects: #10 – Trevor May #9 – Lewis Thorpe #8 – Jorge Polanco #7 – Josmil Pinto #6 – Jose Berrios #5 – Eddie Rosario #4 – Kohl Stewart Click here to view the article

It appears that the Twins are running out of patience with Aaron Hicks. Last year, through 29 games, the outfielder was batting .133/.239/.214. This year, at the same point, his line is .170/.315/.239. While Hicks has shown an improved approach at the plate, he simply is not hitting the ball. The Twins took the 24-year-old to task publicly this week, with Ron Gardenhire and Rob Antony both bemoaning his lack of preparation, and it's not the first time they've tried to light a fire under Hicks via media quotes (Antony also called out Hicks during spring training for failing to step up and take hold of the center field job). On multiple occasions, Twins officials have hinted that they don't believe Hicks' mental commitment to the game lines up with his considerable talent. But as the athletic specimen continues to flail away from the left side of the plate, I can't help but wonder if his primary issue is simpler than that. Batting from the right side against lefties last season, Hicks hit .203/.273/.441 for a .713 OPS that -- while not good -- was respectable enough for a rookie. His overall numbers were dragged down by a horrendous .189/.255/.311 hitting line from the left side. After going 0-for-2 against right-handed starter Clay Buchholz on Thursday, Hicks is batting .113 while swinging left-handed this year, with one extra-base hit in 65 plate appearances. He ended up delivering the game-winning hit in the 10th inning Thursday, and sure enough he did it while batting righty against southpaw Andrew Miller. Hicks had entered the game hitting .242/.390/.333 against left-handers. On his blog this week, La Velle E. Neal III wrote about the club's frustrations with Hicks, stating that the outfielder is on the "hot seat." If the Twins want Hicks to change his ways, maybe altering his pre-game routine is not the answer. It isn't like he's going up to the plate and completely getting blown away; his 30-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio is actually quite solid. He just isn't doing enough when he puts the ball in play, and that's mostly because he isn't making solid contact on right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a miserable .143 BABIP despite his high-end speed. Download attachment: USATSI_7915353.jpg Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports Hicks is a natural right-handed swinger who took up switch-hitting in high school. His numbers from the left were almost always worse in the minors, so the idea of moving him strictly to the right side has been brought up before, but it only seems to make more and more sense as he continues to look drastically worse against righties, who comprise the majority of all pitchers. It's a big change. It would probably require heading to the minors and essentially rebuilding his approach. That might take some time, as Hicks hasn't regularly seen right-handed pitching from the right side in probably close to a decade. But if the Twins are truly reaching the end of their rope with Hicks, it's worth a shot, right? For what it's worth, Hicks strangely told Parker during spring training that if he were ever to give up switch-hitting, he'd probably want to swing from the left side exclusively, adding that he feels more comfortable there at this point. "I tend to have more of a plan because I’ve had so much more at bats from the left side, where as right-handed I get 100 at bats a year so I kind of just come out ready to swing," Hicks said. Of course, this quote serves as a reminder that perception doesn't always line up with reality. It also seems rather ironic in light of this week's comments from the manager and assistant GM. "I don’t think he always has a plan--how that guy is going to pitch him, how he’s going to be prepared for it" said Antony. Nowhere has Hicks appeared to have less of a plan -- or at least, been less able to execute a plan -- than from the left side. [/hr]Because the Twins won yesterday, you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza today (Friday) fromPapaJohns.com when you use the promo code TWINSWIN. Click here to view the article

Age: 25 (DOB: 10/23/87) 2012 Stats GULF: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16/4 K/BB, 0.89 WHIP A: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7/1 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP AAA: 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 10/1 K/BB, 1.80 WHIP ETA: 2013 Turn the calendar back two years. It's spring training 2011 and the Twins are coming off a second straight division championship. Kyle Gibson is an attention magnet in camp. He's coming off a spectacular pro debut that saw him fly through three levels of the minors, knocking on the door of the majors by September. He's recently been ranked by Baseball America as the 34th-best prospect in ball – 15th among pitchers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gibson works his way into a couple big-league exhibitions and the Twins publicly toy with the notion of bringing him north, but ultimately decide to let him gain more experience in Triple-A. There is no room in the rotation for him. Yep, it was a different time. The rest is history. Gibson goes to Rochester and pitches decently but begins struggling with elbow pain midway through the summer. In August tests reveal a partial tear of the UCL and, a month later, he undergoes Tommy John surgery. Fast forward seventeen months. The right-hander now returns to Fort Myers hoping to once again establish himself as the story of spring training. Considering his talent and the statement he made with his performance after returning to competition late last year, it would be no surprise if he does. The Good We can't glean much from the statistics compiled by Gibson last year in 13 regular-season outings split between rookie ball, Single-A and Triple-A. Twenty-eight innings is too small a sample for any conclusions, especially when many of them are pitched against teenagers getting their first taste of pro ball. But as you look over Gibson's results, you can't help noticing the strikeout-to-walk ratios. Between his rehab stint and his six starts in the Arizona Fall League, the recovering righty notched 61 whiffs with only 14 free passes in 51 1/3 innings. That's a 10.7 K/9 rate against a 2.4 BB/9 rate. Tremendous. When Gibson took the minor leagues by storm in 2010, missing bats and limiting walks were both parts of his formula. But his penchant for inducing ground balls is what set him apart. At 6'6", his ability to locate a sinking fastball and sharp slider down in the zone creates an impressive downward plane that prevents opposing hitters from lifting the ball often. If his track record holds, Gibson could put up elite grounder rates approaching 60 percent. During his appearances in the fall league, his fastball was clocked between 93-95 mph, indicating that his velocity has returned (and then some, maybe). The nice thing about Gibson is that he's got a relatively high floor. He might not have truly dominant stuff, which is why you'll rarely see him labeled as a potential ace, but his skill set damn near guarantees at least some measure of major-league success. As long as he can stay healthy – and you'd hope the early reconstructive surgery will put him on that path – he seems like as safe a bet as there is to become a steady constant in the Twins' rotation for the next several years. The Bad Twins fans know as well as anyone that major elbow surgery can have lasting deleterious effects on a young pitcher. Francisco Liriano was never quite the same again after undergoing Tommy John surgery as a 22-year-old, and he's hardly the only example. By going under the knife and essentially losing a full year just as he was on the cusp of the majors, Gibson missed out on crucial development time. Now, he's a 25-year-old with no major-league experience who has logged only 123 innings over the past two seasons combined. And while it's easy to find positives in Gibson's peripherals, he simply hasn't achieved sustained results yet above Double-A. In 23 total starts for Rochester, he has registered a 4.67 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. While his performance last season must be viewed as a success overall, one can't ignore that he was knocked around a bit in his two starts at Triple-A, and then struggled after a hot start in Arizona. Gibson hurled 10 innings of one-run ball in his first two AFL starts, but then yielded 13 runs over 13 1/3 innings (8.77 ERA) in his final four, posting an uncharacteristically ugly 12-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Said Gibson of his late skid: "I feel like if I had better command I would really feel good about my Fall League experience, but since I lost my command at the end that was a little frustrating." Rust from a year off? Fatigue catching up? Simply a rough patch? Or are there more troubles on the horizon for Gibson as he learns to pitch with a new ligament while adjusting to competition at the highest level, which he – unlike most 25-year-old top prospects – hasn't had the opportunity to face at all? The Bottom Line By all appearances, Gibson is physically back to where he was before surgery, at which point he was arguably the Twins' best prospect. That he finds himself outside the Top 5 this year is a credit to the advancement of the system since he went down, but also a caution that the return from Tommy John surgery isn't always – or even often – smooth. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Berrios] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #7 Eddie Rosario] View full article

Download attachment: tanaka.jpg I'll say this much for Masahiro Tanaka: his timing is good. The Japenese star just put together the best statistical season for a pitcher in NPB history, and will be coming to the States just as Major League Baseball is receiving a massive influx of revenue from new media deals. Tanaka has been on an incredible run. After starring for Japan in the World Baseball Classic in the spring, he went 22-0 with a 1.23 ERA for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. At season's end, he came on as closer to protect a one-run lead in his team's pennant-clinching victory. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's a star on the level of Yu Darvish, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideo Nomo. He's only 24 years old. He has filed for international free agency. And there are plenty of major-league teams ready to spend big on pitching. The Twins are one of them. There are several reasons to believe the Twins will be active players for Tanaka this winter. Jim Pohlad has repeatedly insisted that he is more than open to aggressive financial measures in order to improve the club, while Terry Ryan has been typically wary of the free agent route. Ryan's main concern -- one that has been echoed by Pohlad -- is that there's great peril in handing high-dollar multi-year contracts to aging pitchers, who are notoriously susceptible to injury and decline. But of course, Tanaka is just entering his physical prime. He is only 15 months older than Alex Meyer, the organization's top pitching prospect. And his success in the Nippon Pro Baseball league has been otherworldly. In seven seasons, he is 95-35 with a 2.32 ERA, 52 complete games and 18 shutouts. He is renowned for his outstanding command, and his featured split-finger fastball is considered by scouts to be a plus major-league pitch. Of course, dominant numbers in Japan don't always portend effectiveness in the majors. The Twins have seen that on some level with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but the more relevant cases would be players like Matsuzaka, Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa. There's plenty of risk involved, especially when you consider that Tanaka could well command an investment that rivals (or even exceeds) the $112 million shelled out by Texas for Darvish two years ago. The Rangers' contract with Darvish is for six years and $60 million -- hardly outrageous by MLB standards -- but Texas also needed to win bidding rights with a $52 million posting fee for the hurler's Japanese team, the Nippon Ham Fighters. Undoubtedly, the Golden Eagles are licking their chops anticipating the bids that might come in for Tanaka given his age and status. Several large-market major-league teams appear poised to spend heavily on starting pitching this offseason, most notably the New York Yankees. As the posting system for Japanese players involves blind bids, Ryan and the Twins would need to send out a very, very significant offer in order to have a legitimate chance of landing the pinnacle of the international market. Could they be gun-shy about playing this game? That would be understandable, since they were burned on the Nishioka deal. Then again, they must feel some sense of remorse for missing out on Hisashi Iwakuma, for whom they finished runner up in the post bidding back in 2010. The Twins clearly had interest in Iwakuma but didn't do what it took to bring him in, and they've since watched him go 23-11 with a 2.84 ERA in two seasons with Seattle. The cost to claim Tanaka will be in another realm entirely from Nishioka (winning bid: $5 million) or Iwakuma ($19 million). I suspect he may break the current record held by Darvish at $51.7 million. That's an awful lot of money to pay simply to negotiate with a player, at which point the Twins would have to make another massive financial commitment. Perhaps too spicy a pepper to swallow. There's not much in the history of the franchise or the commanding GM to suggest that such a splashy play would be on the table. But with the Twins admitting they have surplus money to spend, and with Tanaka fitting so well into their emerging timeline, I wouldn't be surprised if the club made a bid they feel is quite aggressive in order to take a shot at the intriguing righty. Whether or not that's aggressive enough isn't in their hands. It could very well turn out that the Twins' ability to gamble on Tanaka is dictated more by the level of interest from other (far richer) teams than their own. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: facebook-thumbs-up.jpg As I write this, I'm feeling pretty giddy. I just got done watching Glen Perkins pitch to Kurt Suzuki in the ninth inning of the All-Star Game, closing out a victory for the American League in Derek Jeter's final hurrah. Admittedly I don't usually get too worked up about pageantry of the so-called Midsummer Classic, but with my lifelong city being showcased -- and with our site holding an event downtown -- I couldn't help but get drawn in this year. Boy, was I impressed. With the exception of some sourpusses who actually forced MLB to publicly apologize for having the gall to set off fireworks during an event that takes place here once every three decades, the city of Minneapolis had a good showing under the national spotlight. And so too, did the Minnesota Twins. The organization doesn't get credit for much these days -- the nature of three straight losing seasons and counting -- but these last few days have been a reminder that they've got some good people in place. Running a baseball club is about a lot more than trades and free agents, and the Twins excel in many of those less-publicized areas. Their world class ballpark, which was universally acclaimed by out-of-towners during the All-Star activities, is a shining example of that. There have been some pretty incendiary and harsh things written about the Twins in recent weeks, here and elsewhere -- what with the team in last place, Joe Mauer on the shelf during a miserable season and Ricky Nolasco thus far shaping up as an epic free agent bust. It reached a point here where a moderator had to preemptively warn people not to launch into negative tirades in the comments section of last week's post entitled "Happy Notes." Believe it or not, people in the front office do pay attention and notice this stuff. It's not lost on them that people are frustrated. They are frustrated too, trust me. I'm no evangelist for the group that's currently in place -- in fact, according to Twin Cities Business Magazine's Adam Platt, I'm "one of the team's sharper critics in the blogosphere" (really?) -- yet they've still been pretty nice to me, along with my colleagues at Twins Daily. The Twins are ahead of the national curve in terms of granting access to and accommodating independent digital media, recognizing the dedicated and adamant readership. Jack Goin, a prominent member of the baseball operations team and a guy with a voice in Terry Ryan's ear, has shown up at Twins Daily and engaged with readers on multiple occasions, most recently last week. They know that the readers here, and at other fan sites, are invested in the product. They do care what you think. I believe that's commendable. I'm all about accountability. I have no problem criticizing the team; I've done so plenty this year and you can believe it'll continue if things don't head in a positive direction in these final months. But I'm also about balance, and with all the vitriol that sometimes fills the comments section here and elsewhere, it seemed appropriate to dole out some healthy praise for the organization after doing a bang-up job hosting baseball's signature summer event. From the strong showings of three top Twins prospects in the Futures Game, to the majestic rainbow that made for an unbelievable view during Monday night's Home Run Derby, to Perkins and Suzuki closing out one of the chillier All-Star Games in memory (of course), the three-day gala could have hardly gone better if it were scripted. And although the game on Tuesday night was almost meaningless, it was pretty cool to see Target Field packed with riveted fans as Perk pulled off the flawless finish. When talking to FOX's Ken Rosenthal after the game, he compared it to a playoff atmosphere. Unfortunately, since his rise has coincided almost exactly with the team's fall, Perkins hasn't had a chance to pitch in a playoff game at Target Field. But with the team showing unprecedented aggressiveness on the market, and with the heralded wave of prospects finally reaching the high levels of the minors, perhaps that day isn't too far off. I just hope that, when Perkins slams the door shut on his first postseason game, folks around downtown don't complain about the celebratory fireworks. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: arciaswing.jpg A right wrist injury that bothered Oswaldo Arcia late in the 2013 season flared up again earlier this month, causing the young outfielder to miss a couple weeks of action just as his season was getting started. Now, Arcia is by all accounts ready to put the wrist ailment behind him. He took batting practice on Target Field without incident Friday and then headed to Rochester, where he began his rehab assignment by going 3-for-3 as the DH on Saturday. He played six more innings Sunday. It looks like Arcia is almost ready to return. But are the Twins ready for him? The offense has been surprisingly productive in Arcia's absence, thanks in large part to contributions from Jason Kubel, Chris Colabello and Josmil Pinto. Those three have been regularly occupying the corner outfield and DH spots, leaving no obvious landing spot for Arcia when he comes off the disabled list. In the big picture, you can certainly argue that Arcia is more important to the team's offensive success than any of Kubel, Colabello and Pinto, but right now there is -- dare I say? -- a logjam of quality bats. Could the hard-swinging 22-year-old be left in Triple-A when he's activated from the DL? Arcia's emphatic reaction after a key late-game triple in the season-opening series against the White Sox will go down as one of the month's highlights, but he hadn't done much outside of that in early action. In 18 plate appearances, he had six strikeouts, one walk and two hits. That's obviously too small a sample to base much on, but he was swinging out of his shoes a bit, and now he's coming back from a prolonged absence, so the Twins might just want to see him demonstrate in Rochester for a while longer that he's got his timing and he has reined in his swing. He needs to be playing every day and right now that would be hard to accomplish without drastically altering a formula that's working in Minnesota. Josmil Pinto has been one of the team's best hitters and he should probably stick mostly at DH for now, since his defense has been erratic and Kurt Suzuki has been very good all-around behind the plate. Condensing Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello into a platoon in left field is an option. That would make sense for Kubel, who is characteristically struggling against southpaws with a .192 average, but Colabello has actually been better against righties, as is typical for him. Also, how do you demote a guy who has been as crucial to your offense -- and as unbelievably fun to watch -- as Colabello to a part-time role? The Twins essentially have to keeping riding him unless he cools off substantially. If one of the players currently in the mix gets hurt or hits a wall, or if Arcia rakes in Triple-A to a degree that it's no longer palatable to keep him there, a switch can be made quickly. Right now, the Twins are in a position where they can afford to be very patient with their uber-talented young slugger. One thing they cannot afford to do is put him back on the MLB roster if he won't be playing almost every day. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg Last year, Scott Diamond emerged from the wreckage of an awful rotation to establish himself as the unit's lone long-term building block. At the conclusion of the season, Terry Ryan was clear in stating that only Diamond was assured a spot among the 2013 starting five. As it turned out, Diamond was not be a member of the Opening Day rotation this year; his recovery from offseason elbow surgery stretched a bit longer than expected, but when he rejoined the club in mid-April he was every bit the breath of fresh air that he had been a year ago. Recently, however, he’s begun to unravel as the aspects of his game most responsible for his success have gone by the wayside. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Diamond’s outstanding results last year – 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 173 innings – were met with skepticism by many for two principal reasons. For one, his previous campaign had been utterly horrendous; between Triple-A and the majors in 2011, the lefty went 5-19 with a 5.44 ERA – an inauspicious introduction to his new organization after being acquired in the Rule 5 draft. Secondly, Diamond’s vastly improved numbers came along with a 4.7 K/9 rate that ranked as the third-lowest in all baseball. However, Diamond offset his extreme contact tendencies by excelling in the two areas where low-strikeout pitchers must stand out to sustain effectiveness: walks and ground balls. His 1.6 BB/9 rate ranked as the lowest in the American League while his 53.4 percent GB rate put him in the top 5. Because of his elite standing in these two key categories, Diamond separated himself from the rest of the organization’s contact-heavy pack and looked like a decent bet to become a rotation fixture going forward. He certainly looked that part in his first handful of starts this season, posting a 3.03 ERA over his first five starts while issuing just three walks in 29 innings with plenty of grounders. But after hurling seven shutout innings at Fenway Park on May 7, Diamond took a sudden turn for the worse. In four outings since, he’s 0-2 with an 8.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. He has failed to complete six innings in any of these four starts. Lately, the skills that had been so vital to the southpaw’s game are nowhere to be found. Opponents have hit more fly balls than grounders over those last four starts, and during that span Diamond has uncharacteristically issued eight walks in 20 1/3 innings. What’s the explanation? Are there lingering effects from his elbow injury and surgery last year? Or are old habits manifesting? Whatever the case, Diamond needs to work with pitching coach Rick Anderson and get back to his bread and better of locating the ball down in the zone effectively. Because when he’s not consistently doing that, he becomes part of the problem rather than part of the solution. This rotation has enough problems as it is. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: scottdiamond1.jpg Scott Diamond picked up a win in Thursday’s sweep-clinching victory over the White Sox, but his outing could hardly be described as a strong one. Facing arguably the league’s worst lineup, the lefty made it through five innings with only one run allowed but fell apart in the sixth, coughing up a single and back-to-back homers before getting yanked with one out. It marks the seventh time in his last eight outings that Diamond has failed to complete six innings.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] During that span, which dates back to May 7, he has a 6.86 ERA and an ugly 16-to-13 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. Diamond has never been anyone’s idea of a strikeout pitcher, but lately nothing has been working for him. His 48.2 percent grounder rate on the season is down significantly from last year’s elite 53.4 percent clip. His command has been noticeably less sharp. Parker noted on Twitter that opposing hitters are teeing off on Diamond’s curveball to the tune of .314/.310/.571, after last year hitting .239/.247/.368 against the heavily featured offering. He was far and away the best starter on Minnesota's staff in 2012, but right now Diamond isn't doing the things he needs to do to be successful, and that has been the case for weeks. The 26-year-old southpaw clearly isn't right. He's not locating like he was last year, and his pitches aren't moving like they were. Understandably, thoughts turn to his offseason surgery. In December, Diamond had bone chips removed from his left elbow after fading down the stretch. The operation was similar in nature to that of Vance Worley, who had "a loose body and bone spur" removed from his pitching elbow at the end of the season after also,fading down the stretch. This year, Worley looked like a mere shadow of his former self for two months before being bumped to Rochester. The same has more or less been true of Diamond, who excelled in his first handful of starts but is approaching six weeks of ineffectiveness. A Twins team that has actively preached a "no scholarships" mantra now has Diamond -- with one quality start in his last eight tries -- and Mike Pelfrey -- with the worst ERA in the majors -- comprising two fifths of its rotation. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson logged another brilliant outing in Rochester Thursday, allowing just one unearned run in seven innings. To quote Terry Ryan… "Are we trying to win, or what are we doing?" Click here to view the article

In this new series, we'll take a look at several young players in the Twins' organization who may be ready to contribute by next season. How will they be handled? How should they be handled? What do their ascensions mean to players already on the MLB roster? What's the plan? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] --- There may have been a short period of time where the clamor to see Miguel Sano promoted from Single-A looked a little silly in hindsight. After his first 13 games in Double-A following the promotion, he was hitting .150 with a .625 OPS. Nothing alarming, but perhaps a sign that it wasn't all that outrageous for the 20-year-old to have spent a few extra weeks in the Florida State League. That didn't last long. Less than two months later, Sano looks to be completely above the competition in Double-A. Even with the slow start, the third baseman ranks statistically as one of the finest hitters in the Eastern League, where his OPS ranks fifth among players with 150 plate appearances and his slugging percentage ranks second. Download attachment: miguelsano1.JPG As he has rapidly adjusted and grown more comfortable, Sano's numbers in New Britain have gotten more and more ridiculous. Since those first 13 games, he has hit .294/.396/.681 with 11 homers and 34 RBI in 34 games. In his last 20 games he's at .329/.449/.712. In his most recent three-game series over the weekend, he went 6-for-13 with two homers, three doubles and seven RBI. He then added another long ball in Tuesday night's game. Just ridiculous. At this point there seems to be little question that, even though he won't yet be 21 when the 2014 starts, Sano will be ready to play in the majors. In fact, based on his transcendence in Double-A it's getting harder and harder to to believe he's not ready right now. The Aggressive Route Operate under the assumption that Sano will be ready to take over third at the outset of the 2014 season. Let him play out the schedule in New Britain (the regular season ends on September 2nd) and then call him up to finish the year in Minnesota, gathering 50-75 at-bats and providing a nice attraction at Target Field in the final month of a lost season. Presuming he doesn't prove totally overwhelmed by the challenge, Sano can enter spring training next year as the favorite to man third base, while the Twins reconfigure around him and try to return to contention with his powerful bat helping lead the way. The Conservative Route Here's the thing: There's really no rush to get Sano up. His performance is the only factor forcing that issue, and there are plenty of other circumstances that would dictate a slower approach. For one, there's the guy currently occupying the hot corner for the Twins. Trevor Plouffe is having a tough season but it seems premature to give up on him. Then there's Deibinson Romero, a 26-year-old third baseman who is having a nice year at Rochester and might merit a look ahead of the young Sano. Of course, there's also the assortment of service clock implications. By keeping Sano in the minors through most of April next season, they can add another year of team control, and by holding off until July they can keep his future arbitration price tags down. All of that should be a secondary concern, in my opinion, but it's a factor. Letting Sano wrap up his season in New Britain, play some winter ball and open the 2014 season in Rochester would be justifiable, even looking beyond the financial aspects. He is, after all, still 20 years old, immature, inexperienced. And taking a patient approach does buy more time to make decisions on the likes of Plouffe and, to a lesser extent, Romero. The Likely Route My guess is that the Twins will follow more along the conservative path. I doubt we'll see Sano this September, though it wouldn't shock me if they called him up for the "Sit on the bench and take it all in" experience. It's hard for me to see Plouffe getting buried for the last month, barring injury, and adding Sano would require some 40-man roster hassle. With all that being said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Sano getting a legitimate shot at the Opening Day third base job next year. We've heard as much rumbled through the grapevine, and the slugger's convincing progression in Double-A only serves to fuel that fire. Ordinarily, common sense would point to taking things slowly, because the Twins are a team in transition and Sano is still a 20-year-old kid learning how to be a professional. But this isn't an ordinary case. His talent is special, and at some point (perhaps some point very soon) it just no longer makes any sense to leave him stagnating in the minor leagues. Click here to view the article