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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I certainly agree with this take. I think the key is that Ryan can go big this offseason, he just can't go Scherzer or Lester big. It would be pretty uninspiring if he patched with a couple of low level guys. I'm not impressed with the LF options, but there are a couple of pitchers worth considering. Scherzer turned down a 6/144 offer, I bet he gets at least 7/175, maybe 8/200. That is a lot of cheese for a mid-market revenue team to invest in one pitcher.
  2. drjim
    They aren't low, but they are a below the median revenue team. They can play with big time free agents, but not the biggest, especially if NY, Boston, LA are involved. And yes they can fit it for the next handful of years, but we are taking at least 6, probably 7, and possibly 8 for the two guys you mentioned. They don't have the financial ability to easily eat that mistake if it turns out poorly on the back end.
  3. drjim
    I also think Scherzer and Lester are going to get at least 7 years, which makes the window of when the can really spend a little trickier to navigate on the back end. SS upgrades can be a little tricky.
  4. drjim
    Based on comp balance pick they earned this year, Twins are in the bottom half of revenues/market combination, somewhere in the 16-18 range. The franchises mentioned make more on their TV deals than the Twins do in all avenues combined. Technically the Twins can spend whatever they want, but if the biggest markets want a guy I don't think the Twins can responsibly hang. You can certainly think differently and ignore the basic revenue realities, but you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.
  5. drjim
    I certainly agree with this and want the Twins to go big on a pitcher. It just won't be Scherzer or Lester, because the Twins revenue situation doesn't really allow them to outbid NY, Bos, LA for the premium free agent that those franchises covet.
  6. drjim
    You should stop this. Scherzer is going to Boston, New York or LA. The Twins have money, but not nearly as much as those franchises. Plenty to criticize Ryan about, but getting outbid by them really shouldn't be one of them.
  7. drjim
    Thanks for clarifying, this states it better. The Twins can certainly get a pretty good (non salary dump) player if they give up one of the guys you mentioned. The guys that have been mentioned (ie Rosario/Benson) aren't going to bring much back, certainly not a "good" player, unless you have a pretty liberal definition of what that means.
  8. drjim
    Actually you can. That is how farm systems work. It shows why people can't trade (EDIT: I should clarify, can't trade solely prospects to get multiple great players) for multiple great players or why established guys with more than two years of control rarely get traded (EDIT: for just prospects). I was also responding to the very specific guys that were mentioned. The Twins have four guys with a lot of value, a second tier that will be ranked high but not have a ton of value now because they are too far away, and then depth guys. Each of those tiers have value in some sense, but depth guys (who everyone wants to trade) just don't bring back as much as we think they will. They get guys for a year, maybe two.
  9. drjim
    I'll take these in order. Rosario was barely a top 100 guy on some lists, not top 100 on others and had barely reached AA and not done a ton there while still not really having a position. Nice prospect but really not going to get you a whole lot. Maybe a year or two or a corner that is priced too high. Depending on what veteran or other piece, I would argue not nearly as much as you think. Benson also would have gotten you very little. Guys like him (and Rosario) are the second or third piece of a big trade, or can get moved for a year of a non elite player. Are you really lamenting that the Twins did not do that? For a Twins comparison, you couldn't trade Rosario or Benson at that point and even get a player like Plouffe - slightly above average about to hit arb 2. You would barely get a half year of Suzuki. I would like to go back in time and deal Rosario for a player you mentioned, but it would not have been possible. He isn't worth that (of course depending on your definition of "good"). You can't on the one hand claim that prospects are overrated and then on the other hand demand that they are traded and expect them to bring back more than is possible, and then call out Terry Ryan for not doing what is actually, in fact, impossible. If anyone is overrating prospects here, it is you.
  10. drjim
    Fair enough, flip C and 1B, but the point still stands. I don't think Florimon was ever thought of as a set answer, perhaps a body that was acceptable until a replacement was found, but not someone who couldn't be replaced. Just an overall lack of options. Who was the other corner other than Arcia? And yes, people (like me) were arguing against signing a long term CF but certainly weren't opposed to a stopgap, just acknowledged the fact that player didn't actually exist. So yes, I think there is a misremembering of what people were saying at this time last year.
  11. drjim
    I'll buy Rosario to a limited extent, but those other guys really aren't bringing anything back of substance. Depth guys that are third pieces to a trade or might get you a year of an overpriced corner bat.
  12. drjim
    I think this gets down to the actual value of prospects and what they can get in return. Generic things like "prospects are overvalued" doesn't really say much. In a sense they are, but in a sense they really aren't. The top prospects (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Berrios) are valued (rightly) very high, but guys like Stewart, Gordon, Thorpe, Polanco, even though they will be highly ranked in the offseason, really aren't going to bring back much in return because they are far from the majors, and a team that is rebuilding, like the Twins, are wise to keep them in their system instead of flipping them for a year or two of a corner OF. Guys ranked lower than that are guys that get half a season of a bit piece at the deadline or maybe a full year of a guy with a little too big a contract (or are third pieces of a bigger trade). Trade a prospect for a player? OK fine, sounds good in a vacuum, but what does this actually look like to you? To get a legitimate player that has more than a year of control, it starts with one of the big 4 and then needs another couple of guys as well.
  13. drjim
    I like the casualness of stating "I would consider dealing for a C, SS, CF, 3B, SP". The Twins and every other team in baseball... And the "I would settle for Shields". That is good stuff. Good to know you would settle for a top 20-30 starter in the game.
  14. drjim
    I think Scherzer and Lester are wishful thinking for a team in the Twins revenue class, don't want Cabrera or Cruz (for the contracts they'll get), don't think Markakis gets to free agency. Beyond that I would certainly be on board with this plan. I do think Ramirez gets a mildly shocking contract. I endorse Martinez. I would go after Tomas. I do think Latos could be had, but not sure what it would take. I highly endorse the Dodgers idea. I still would be hesitant to move a top ten prospect this offseason other than Rosario, and I don't think he has much value. The exception would be for a starter to control for at least three years.
  15. drjim
    I would say beyond wishful thinking. He almost certainly won't remain on the 40 man.
  16. drjim
    I certainly agree with this. And I would take it further and say that if they don't go for a really good pitcher, they shouldn't bother. They have plenty of 3, 4, 5 guys ready to pitch.
  17. drjim
    Not resigned. I think Gardy is out after the year.
  18. drjim
    You misremember. No one would have written at this point last year the Twins had a set option at C (2nd catcher to split time with Pinto), SS, LF, CF, DH, or 3-4 rotation spots. They might have suggested short contracts at a couple of those spots to not block top prospects, but not that they were set. This is progress. I also think you are mistaken in your next two paragraphs, but that is a matter of taste. Most teams in baseball improve via internal improvements, not through significant offseason additions.
  19. drjim
    I don't think Nick said there were no holes (he never uses the word "hole"), but I think the point is that they have a guy in place at 8 positions and most of the rotation/bullpen to start the season. No real reason to put words in his mouth.
  20. drjim
    I agree with being patient with the LF market, but strongly disagree with the pitching analysis. They have plenty of room to add to the rotation. Don't think they'll go for Lester or Scherzer, but everyone else in a pretty good crop should be fair game. Though I will add they should go big or not bother, they have plenty of backend guys. They should also turn over about half the bullpen. Many of the replacements can come internally, but nothing wrong with going after another reclamation project or two. Perkins and Fien should be the only givens - no reason to bring back Duensing and Swarzak and they can upgrade on Thielbar pretty easily. Burton and Deduno gone, with Pressly and/or Pelfrey acting as the long man. So in summary: 1. Go big on SP (ahem Shields) 2. Sign a LF, but wait out the market and be comfortable with internal guys if absolutely necessary 3. Turn over half the bullpen
  21. drjim
    Haven't they already auditioned Parmelee and moved on?
  22. drjim
    Perhaps they have seen enough of Burdi to know he is good and are thinking of pursuing this strategy. It would be disappointing if it was someone other than these two.
  23. drjim
    Berrios is on pace for mid to late 2015 he keeps pitching as he has (and avoids injury).
  24. drjim
    I don't want to look it up for link, but latest report was he would be in extended until December then play winter ball in the Caribbean.
  25. drjim
    It is, and not surprising. Perkins and Fien are the only guarantees going into next year. He has a legit shot to break camp with the Twins.
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