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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. I much prefer they keep what they are doing secret. If for no other reason than the comedy of reading people on boards like this (and even national writers) continue to slam the Twins over something they really have no reference for. That, and keeping it secret is what the Cardinals would do.
  2. Why should that stop people from criticizing Ryan for not trading for them? I find it very unlikely the Nats trade Gio and close to unlikely that the Marlins trade Stanton.
  3. Nolasco certainly was an overpay. As was Jimenez and probably Garza too. Hard to sign any free agent pitcher to a good contract. And he certainly was out of desperation - the overall crappiness of Twins pitching over the past several years has been well documented. If the Twins weren't desperate no chance they sign a mid-rotation guy (if you are generous) to a 4 year deal.
  4. I tried to find total spending for all teams each of the past three years but could only find last year. Twins were number 6 overall (not counting Morales). This can be spun in all sorts of ways, but that seems acceptable to me. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/2013-14-free-agent-spending-by-team-to-date.html I imagine the previous two years were more in the 17-25 range, but payroll going into the 2012 season was around $100 mil, so that strikes me as acceptable as well. The main outlier since Ryan took over was 2012-2013 offseason, and while that has been debated to death on this board, it was a terrible market for starters which probably prevented spending that offseason as much as any specific decision made from ownership or Ryan.
  5. I would add Escobar, and the draft pick for Cuddyer leaving ended up being Berrios. I was only referencing the players you mentioned that left. These players either left before Ryan took over, retired, were spun for legitimate assets, or were well into their decline phase of their career (Coors field inspired batting titles not withstanding). I would argue that rebuilding teams should not lament losing any of these assets.
  6. It hasn't changed. If anything, with the amount of time they missed last year they probably even need more reps than they would have last year if they had been healthy from day one.
  7. I would do that trade if I had assurances that he would sign an extension. A 6 year deal would not make him the highest paid player and no he would not do that, no reason for him to do so, he is 2 years from free agency.
  8. It is enough of a failure that they have fired the GM and manager. Perhaps not on the timeline you wanted. And a couple of other things - it is a 3 year rebuild so far, 2011 is the year they are rebuilding from, and I'm not so certain they were fully committed to a rebuild in 2012, more trying to avoid a complete collapse. Also, if you want to criticize Terry Ryan, which I assume is your intention, probably doesn't bolster your case to have half the players you mention leave the organization before he was hired. And the other half either retired, were spun for legitimate assets that will be part of the next competitive team, or were well into their decline years which, as you have mentioned before, are not the type of players they should be investing in and wouldn't be part of a future championship team. But if it makes you feel better I will affirm the position that 2011-2014 has been a disaster for the Twins. Not sure anyone would argue otherwise. But I would say things have been done to get them on their way out of it starting next year. That is why I would not fire Ryan - yet.
  9. The problem is Stanton would have to agree to a 6 year deal and he wouldn't, progressive thinkers or not. Not to mention the prospects.
  10. It is far from certain and probably unlikely that Sano would be better than Plouffe next year. But I absolutely agree that they should consider trading Plouffe for an OF or SP. If Sano was to break camp with the Twins, which he won't, he would certainly hit bombs and other power but would be a low AVG guy and I would be concerned about his BB rate. The Twins could certainly live with this, and he would probably improve as the season moved on, but I personally would be concerned about his defense. After a year off and TJ I would be a little hesitant to put him out there day one and let him go with his elbow. I would much rather break him in a little slower in the minors, play a couple games, dh a game, take a day off, pull him if the elbow is tender. Much easier to manage that at AA than in the bigs.
  11. Just to rile Mike up a little I'll point out that since Ryan took the job he has dished out north of $130 mil in contracts to free agents from outside the organization (in three years) with the majority of that coming last offseason when he thought the team was ready to make a little jump. You can complain about who was and wasn't signed, and surely you have, but to say "we don't sign anyone" is being intentionally obtuse. And to assume they won't sign anyone is to ignore the fact that they indeed have signed people with the previous offseason being the largest free agent outlay in the history of the franchise. Personally I would wait until the offseason is done before being so sure they aren't going to do anything.
  12. The Dodgers aren't doing a Kemp salary dump. He's too good. Best Twins can hope for is bad contract (Nolasco) for bad contract (Either or Crawford). I'd rather roll with Nolasco.
  13. Fair enough and good distinction. I can't speak for others but if Sano and Buxton are lighting it up I will want them up no matter what Plouffe and Hicks especially are doing.
  14. There wasn't a path to contention. They certainly didn't need to lose 90+ the last three years, but part of that is part fortune, part is bad decisions (both pre-2011 and with actual free agents signed), part is poor free agent markets that didn't align with needs. It sucks having a bad team, but doesn't mean people need to forget how bad of shape the team was in following the 2011 season and how difficult it is to rebuild a pitching staff and farm system in shambles. Even with perfect hindsight there wasn't a clear path. Some additional wins of course, but not a clear path.
  15. I would disagree with this. I don't think it matters in the least what those three are doing in regards to when Sano and Buxton come up, especially if they are lighting it up like we all hope they will.
  16. These two points are such an obvious rebuttal to what is a pretty silly idea. I do think Sano will force his way to the bigs pretty quick. I'm less confident in Buxton. And that's ok.
  17. Great post and completely agree. I also think you hint at something that is probably coming after the next manager is hired, which will be some shakeup within the minor league staffs. Probably bigger changes coming than we realize, even if they do end up hiring Molitor or someone else currently in the organziation.
  18. It implies no such thing. Sustainable success doesn't mean to be .500, it means to go into the majority of seasons with a realistic shot to compete for a playoff berth. Once in the playoffs good things can happen.
  19. I think the bolded part is the heart of this debate. You make it seem like a team doesn't need a few years to rebuild. Are you sure? Can you think of teams that drop as much as the Twins in 2011 and come right back to sustained competitiveness? That is an assertion that seems to fly in the face of history of the past 20 years. Teams with significantly higher payrolls than the Twins might be able to shorten the cycle or cover up mistakes, but middle market teams will generally go in cycles. Some pain now for hopefully sustained success in the future. Throwing money at the issue might result in an emotionally satisfying more wins in the short term, but no more guarantee of success in the short term and certainly the long term.
  20. If you don't like Ryan of course it can be true. Good moves/picks when Ryan was GM don't count because they are under the direct supervision of someone else. Bad moves/results are a bad reflection on Ryan and count against him. Good moves by Bill Smith don't count. But bad moves under Smith do count against Ryan because Ryan was still in the organization and OKed every move that was made, especially the bad ones. Actual development doesn't count, only who was in charge when the player was acquired, unless it was Ryan, then it was the Scouting Director or draft position or something else that deserves the credit.
  21. Does anyone have any proof of this assertion or is it just assumed? There is a massive difference between staying in the organization and providing some recommendations versus OKing player acquisitions.
  22. I think this article shows just how frickin' hard it is to rebuild pitching that had collapsed up and down the organization. It took until now to finally build up pitching depth going into a season. The idea that a couple of free agent signings (especially considering the options after 2012) and trading a few solid (but not elite) CFs would do the trick overnight seems a little ambitious. Doesn't quite work that way. I personally look at it is this way, after 3 years of rebuild the Twins have rebuilt the farm system, have some actual pitching depth, have seen some young players emerge on to the mlb roster with others that will follow this year, are not saddled with many crippling contracts, have some payroll space. To people who think he should be gone, which is fine as far as that is concerned, make two big mistakes. They vastly understate the problems of the franchise at the conclusion of 2011 and vastly overstate the ease in which a franchise can be rebuilt. I guess if Ryan was fired I wouldn't really care that much (though I think he should stay), but I'm not exactly convinced that a different GM would have brought them to a better place by this point.
  23. Do you have any sense of how this would compare to other orgs? I suspect that high velocity but not a ton of strikeouts isn't unique to the Twins. What we saw before was a fewer high velocity options for the Twins relative to other orgs so none ever made it, while many of those types would wash out in other orgs. Listening to BA podcasts they seem to imply that 90-95 is almost "normal", even for relievers of low a teams. So velocity is not as much of a separator any more, it is command and secondary pitches.
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