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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    And outside of Berrios, who exactly is not being called up right now? It's still only a month into the season.
  2. drjim
    He even lead the AL in WAR!
  3. drjim
    It is early, but it does seem a little sustainable if he can keep that k rate manageable. Seems like he'll start hitting with a little bit more pop and his babip has to climb with his speed.
  4. drjim
    Really hard to support this. If not that reason, it is only to protect Tepesch from being exposed, which is a terrible reason.
  5. drjim
    I will say that if I wanted to do an extremely quick comparison over eras I would use at fWAR. But I'm not all that interested in cross era comparisons, the game is too different.
  6. drjim
    I think this is true in small samples and is generally a good bet to be predictive in the near future. But there are enough examples of players over and under performing fip over large samples that I eventually move to the literal runs and outs. To put it another way, over large enough samples, I do think pitchers have some control over the amount of hits allowed and overall sequencing.
  7. drjim
    I thought you referenced the 70s. My general rule is fip in short term or in recent years, era+ over longer stretches and longer gaps of years.
  8. drjim
    It generally washes out over large enough samples, and I'm hesitant to provide today's assumptions to baseball 40 years ago.
  9. drjim
    I like it because it's a rate stat, not a counting stat. I don't like WAR because it bakes in IP as a multiplier. I like IP as a standalone stat.
  10. drjim
    For the second part, it is my bias of ERA showing what actually happened (runs and outs) vs fip showing what is likely to happen going forward (based on most critical inputs).
  11. drjim
    That makes sense. I was thinking of IP in the sense of WAR, which is the wrong way to think of it. FIP is a rate stat, vs WAR being a counting stat. I prefer rate stats and then find out how many innings, vs having the innings baked into the stat.
  12. drjim
    IP is part of fip? I thought it was a ratio of k, bb, and hr rates. There is some historical value to WAR but I'd use era+ personally.
  13. drjim
    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
  14. drjim
    Indeed. But fip and innings tells a significantly better story than fWAR.
  15. drjim
    For starters, I would say: fip, k and bb rate, IP for pitchers triple slash line, wRC+ (if you buy park adjustements), bb and k rates, PA for hitters fielding is a little tougher But part of the problem with WAR is it tries to tell a story that is not really possible. With the margin of error, it is basically meaningless. The players that are tops in WAR would be tops in basically any measure.
  16. drjim
    Skepticism of WAR doesn't come from only fear of new things or a desire to hold on to old stats. Lots of problems with the methodology. Lots of problems with application. Lots of problems with the story that it is trying tell.
  17. drjim
    That's a helpful response.
  18. drjim
    I'm aware. I think using the same name for two metrics is a problem. One of many that make it really difficult to use. There isn't another stat in baseball that has the same name for two outputs. And archery? Don't really understand how that relates.
  19. drjim
    Reading these defenses of WAR certainly don't make me want to use it more. I imagine a big part of the problem is that the vast majority of stats in baseball are extremely precise, and WAR is absolutely not. And I can't imagine comparing it to probability or other less precise metrics clears up the confusion. And saying some like one stat and others like a completely different stat as a defense of two different measurements of WAR really doesn't help. I think there is value in a really quick and dirty look to give some directional context. But it seems any deep thought on WAR is probably better replaced by looking at other stats.
  20. drjim
    Has anyone really said otherwise? There's a reason he wasn't extended last offseason.
  21. drjim
    I'm probably a bigger WAR skeptic than you. Keep on keeping on.
  22. drjim
    We should stop talking about WAR. The issue is settled.
  23. drjim
    Sonewhat related to the Tepesch question, I'm still amazed Molitor let Hughes start the 6th on Sunday. A fully rested 8 man pen with a day off the next day and a tenuous starter. 5 and fly. Could have easily cost the game.
  24. drjim
    No. Better signings than Belisle and Breslow in the offseason.
  25. drjim
    Maybe sneak in a question about the 2009 international class. Very positive memories.
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