TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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I do want to take issue with this a bit as well. A great farm system and a strong organization is the best way to stay regularly competitive, no question. BUT.....if you look at two of the best organizations of the last 10-20 years (who also are in a similar market size to us) - Atlanta and St. Louis - they not only use a strong farm but show a willingness to move prospects for elite talent or sign good to elite players in FA. From the Uptons to Holliday to Beltran to Furcal to Hudson to Tex. Good teams know how to supplement their home-grown roster and aren't hesitant to part with assets (money or prospects) to do it. That's what I need to see more of. -
a) Adding talent to your roster at positions of need should never be seen as a bad thing. Showing some degree of willingness now gives actual evidence for fan optimism. Which is way better than the phony evidence this thread is full of.
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It's amazing to me that people take that quote so literally but would almost never do that any other time. Look at this thread, people are using a BS media-placating quote as evidence the Twins were trying to shell out a big contract! It's just....baffling. I'm not asking for Grienke myself, but I'm damn sure asking for some significant spending the next few years. Anyone who still thinks this team will be "hampering" or "restricting" itself later by spending even 40M hasn't looked at the payroll obligations or can't do basic math. There really is no alternative.
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for the record I am not arguing optimism is pollyannish - just hopeful common sense wins out over evidence. The disagreement I don't understand is suggesting the Twins aren't being cheap. That just baffles me.
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Well.....other than the falling payroll.
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Im not suggesting they sign 4 of them, just pointing out they COULD if they chose to. And my skepticism is centered on whether they would even add one. One such player, even as a wworthless payroll drain four years from now, still wouldn't hinder this team. They are that far below budget. That's the beauty of them being aggressive sooner rather than later. But I have serious doubts Ryan would even do it at all.
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Was Terry Ryan GM then? He is the single biggest factor in my skepticism. His rhetoric is very clear about FA: We have to think the money matches their value. Unfortunately, in FA you sometimes have to go over-value as long as you think they can help and you aren't burdening your payroll. And the ridiculous thing some in this thread don't understand is that this is the time to be adding assets! We're talking 5-6 years before our Arby payments become significant which means this is precisely the time we should be adding payroll that won't hinder our ability to retain those players. Waiting for 3-4 years neither helps this team in the present nor future. Again, next year we may have enough "flexibility" to sign 6 Josh Willingham contracts - I sincerely hope Ryan does that to some degree. But until his rhetoric and his actions change, I remain a skeptic and that doesn't make me very happy to say.
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What dimension would that be exactly?
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I don't think the "most LFs" that stringer mentioned would include him. But most every other one would. Watching Doumit in the OF is beyond painful.
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Damn kid...way to go get it!
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Well, congrats on equivocating. 60M a year for a club that is projected to only have 40-50M committed right now (And that's with reasonable arb. estimates) for the next 5 years would not cripple this team. Hell, they'd still be technically under the 50% mark. The "impact" of that depends on how well it's spent. But it will not hinder the club retaining in any way, shape, or form any of the young core they are building. I don't understand this defeatist attitude about spending money. You do realize that spending money is how you both retain and add talent in professional sports right? Since the Twins will have few viable candidates for the "retain" half of that, why not "add"?
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The funny thing is, you make a throw-away scarecrow to paint me in some extreme, yet the only one really in an extreme position is you. Does that friggin group up there even increase the payroll by 7-8 million? Throw aside the remaining question marks each of them has to even remain as a viable player on this team, even if they become solid regulars the average arb. numbers from 2012 were 3.5M. So considering that most guys in the 5-6 years of service timer are the ones bringing that average up, you're talking about 5-10M as a reasonable estimate of their cost. That STILL leaves 50M. Even if you estimate it on the extreme high end - you're talking 40M dollars. To put that in perspective - you could sign SIX Josh Willingham contracts for that. So please, you're a smart guy, don't throw crap at the wall and pretend you thought it was stick. This payroll drop is very disconcerting if we continue to see the same patterns of spending. And again for the record - I don't know what the Twins will do, but this offseason didn't reassure my skepticism. Maybe this wasn't the right fit this year, I'm not saying that's impossible. But a lot of the public discourse is still about the "right fit" and "what we're comfortable with", etc. The same stuff we've been hearing since Ryan came aboard. We know what they are "comfortable" with for the most part. So if the chatter is still the same, I need to see the actions change before I can be an optimist. And I really want to be optimistic because this team's future foundation looks DAMN good. I WANT to believe it's going to be augmented significantly outside the club. I just have been given no reason to believe it.
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Not for a few years will any of them hit arby. And even then their price-tag isn't going to be significant. Again - potentially 60M below the 50% threshold. A few million in arby increases does not dent that and it strikes me again as a disingenuous argument on your part jim to make a point like that. It leads me to believe you'll pull anything out, no matter how inconsequential, to make your point seem more relevant. But your last point is precisely my point - we have zero evidence to show that the Twins would employ their resources to several Willingham-type signings. And we not only need that, but we need them to be willing to take the next step too. I'm highly skeptical of that and that kind of aggressiveness is going to be vital to helping this team take the next step.
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I was referring to after this year when Morneau and others come off. In which case - yes, they would. Or at least close to it. I don't think people understand that next year this team could be as much as 60-70M under the 50% number. (And that's not including possible trades of Willingham and Correia among others)
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I don't understand this idea that FA dollars somehow translate into WAR. This is just a bizarre way of constructing an argument and I'd suggest it's completely facetious. Or, at least, I hope it is. The problem with payroll is that if you aren't paying for talent, it's unlikely you have a lot of talent. Now you might have a young, very good roster that is cheap (as we hope to soon) but most times money at least reflects your talent. It's hard to add or maintain it without money so it just makes sense. I, for one, am not suggesting they HAD to sign Grienke or anyone else. But the reality is that this team has enough cash to hand out two absurd contracts and as many as 4-5 semi-absurd (Sanchez-like) contracts and do little to no harm to their long-term financial situation. And that's using 50% revenue as a measuring stick. What I think cannot be argued is that our head honcho has yet to show a willingness to consistently dabble in the 3/40 range much less the 5/75. We're going to need to see that, possibly as soon as next year, to jumpstart this thing even quicker. Waiting on prospects only is a good way to keep waiting.
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Watching how brazen Curry is and the shooting swagger.....god it's depressing to imagine "what if?"
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Sweet thunder cats shirt.
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This team has ridiculous amounts of flexibility. The issue is will Ryan back off the rigid stance he has had his entire career about FA - You could argue this team will have room enough for TWO Grienke salaries next year and beyond. That doesnt mean you do it but we need to be a LOT more willing to consider deals like that to augment our future. And even more so willing to consider 3/40 deals that have risk. We can't even say with assurance that we would even consider that.
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So far this road trip has been a good example of what can happen to teams that aren't much good at anything in particular. Hopefully they turn it around but being bad at everything but the bullpen is a good way to find the bottom of the standings. also, plenty of us were warning that this offense wasn't as great as the preseason hype.
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Let's be clear here too, I feel like I have to keep reminding people, but Smith also was the one that reversed a long drought of bad drafting/amateur signings. Ryan also set up a lot of the problems we had after the 2007 season - not deciding what to do with Santana, the Castillo trade was sign as a white flag in the clubhouse, and largely used FA to burden us all with watching Rondell White. I love what we've seen so far in how our youth is progressing and some picks last year are really showing some promise. But a lot remains to be seen that Ryan can utilize available financial resources effectively. Especially the enormous amount of flexibility we have and will continue to have for the forseeable future. My patience for that aspect is a bit short.
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Article: Time to Put Pelf on the Shelf
TheLeviathan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The eleventy-billion we'll have available will surely be spent to vastly improve the team! -
What do the the coaches do all night?
TheLeviathan replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
That one was all on Willingham. He should've been watching Vavra and the replay clearly showed he was watching RF instead. -
What do the the coaches do all night?
TheLeviathan replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I heartily endorse PLOUFFE deciding to shame himself in public. I agree that for Gardy this was a tame one, but here is a team that attacks selfishness in players, constantly emphasizes that players should put the team before themselves, and shuns players who don't live up to that. And yet our manager is the first one to put the "I" in "team" by rushing to throw the player under the bus for a mistake. What's so hard about saying "we" to the public and leaving the direct feedback to the clubhouse? It's not only unproductive, it's counterproductive and incredibly hypocritical. It's been happening for years and I'm jsut tired of it. No more tolerance left for it. -
What do the the coaches do all night?
TheLeviathan replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
A number of things here - first off, who cares what the public thinks? Gardy had literally millions of options to answer that question that did not involve name-dropping Plouffe. In all likelihood it was completely his fault, but that doesn't necessitate a public shot at Plouffe again. Here is another example, from the millions, Gardy could have said: "We weren't in the right spot there for Kipnis, we'll work on that and make sure we're on it next time" It takes accountability, doesn't throw Plouffe under the bus, and answers the question. I don't know whose fault it was (Plouffe's most likely) but I do know who is responsible for being the public face of the team - Gardy. He consistently made no effort to answer questions diplomatically. And that should be part of his job - we fans don't have to hear the ear-chewing he gave Plouffe. That rightfully belongs to stay in his office.
