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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    You clearly link Plouffe to this particular haul and equivocated the two scenarios as the same. I'm bordering on speechless. The point is that they didn't get peak value given the timing and value of Donaldson.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I think 2.5 years of data to make a decision is WAY better than 1.5. That's when I'd like to answer that question and I think the Twins would be wise to do the same.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Did you just compare Josh Donaldson and Trevor Plouffe with no caveats? It's that kind of stuff that makes discussions about Beane so polarizing.
  4. TheLeviathan
    We are less than two years removed from him being a sub 600 OPS player and an afterthought. So, yeah, he could be.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Except that's exactly what happens to many players like Dozier.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Billy Beane is a great and resourceful GM, but that doesn't make him infallible. He got two pitchers considered backend starters, an oft injured former top prospect who hasn't produced and a SS in A ball with promise. That just isn't much of a haul for a guy making very little money with a ton of control left. I think it's hilarious people are suggesting Lawrie's cheaper Arby prices are a win for Beane. They're only cheaper because Donaldson is miles better as a player! Of course you pay less for a worse player, that isn't a win.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I wouldn't have done either of those deals either and in general I think the trend towards these contracts is a fad that is going to die off quickly when teams start realizing how infrequent it is that you get even a decent return on your investment.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Saving 20M over 6 years is pretty close to what I said - " a couple million a year". Does it matter? Sure and if we were talking about Santana repeating 2014 for the next two years I'd hop on board in a heartbeat for this type of deal. But your position assumes he continues to be above average and his arb. prices increase to reflect that, but that scenario is hardly a given. So while the Arb. prices MIGHT get bigger you are guaranteed the price on him gets bigger if you extend him. Production or not and I don't see the need to guarantee him that much money when the team has so much control over him left. Also, Dozier has had one above average year, not two. He was average in 2013 and above average in 2014. We'd be paying 50-60 million in guaranteed money for what amounts to 1.5 seasons of good play for a guy who didn't have an elite prospect status. I think I can safely say I'd never be comfortable with that situation going forward regardless of who the player is or how they profile.
  9. TheLeviathan
    I was just using baseball reference for those 10 comparisons. I also didn't highlight him for the injury reasons, Espinosa and Crosby do remind me a lot of Dozier on the other hand. But let's be clear - Dozier has been above average for only 1.5 years. He was pretty bad to start 2013 but then came out of nowhere in June and August of that year. I'm not sure why that deserves 50+ million when your hand is far from being forced.
  10. TheLeviathan
    First, I'd argue the longer the deal the less valuable he'll be in trade. Span had value because it was a short deal that wouldn't hang over your head for long. Signing Dozier to such an extension would, for all intents and purposes, make him untradeable for at least the bulk of the deal. Second, I'd also quibble with your conclusion at the end that you can subtract that 20M and suggest we're buying Dozier for 5M a year. It doesn't work that way - the 75 to 55 comparison is fine, the point about 5/35 is just erroneous and misleading. Brian Dozier has accomplished one season in which he was an above average major league baseball player and that one season was very erratic. If a repeated 2014 bumps his arb. cost by an average of 1-2M for the next few years I can handle that and talk extension at the end of the year when we have more data on what he'll be. If you want more reasons to consider that, please look at the ten players Dozier's career is most similar to thus far: Dale Sveum (962) Bobby Crosby (957) Danny Espinosa (953) Damian Jackson (952) Ted Lepcio (950) Tim Teufel (949) Bernie Allen (948) Don Zimmer (945) Gary Alexander (941) Andre Rodgers (940) Yeah, Bobby Crosby and Danny Espinosa aren't guys I want to toss 60M at because we're happy with 1.5 seasons of baseball.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I think anyone wanting to see this as a good move by Beane are forgetting how frequently these kinds of moves by him don't work out. The Tim Hudson trade was a disaster, the Dan Haren netted only one thing of value and that was flipped for Matt Holliday who was flipped for a poor package. He doesn't have nearly as sterling a record trading as he does drafting and signing. Lawrie has struggled to be league average, Nolin's K rate has declined as he advanced with most people giving him a fourth starter ceiling, and Graveman is likely a reliever. They gave that up for an elite defender with a 126 and 142 OPS+ the last two seasons who has four years of team control left. Sorry, but as a guy with a lot of respect for what Billy Beane has done, this stinks of another Tim Hudson deal. In fact, the package here makes me think they know something about Donaldson the rest of us don't.
  12. TheLeviathan
    A lot of that hinges on Lawrie translating that talent finally. I just have to think there might have been more out there for Oakland for a guy this good with this much team control left.
  13. TheLeviathan
    I would tend to think the Blue Jays got good value here. This is only one top 100 prospect and a flailing former top prospect.
  14. TheLeviathan
    His OPS is largely HR driven and that has proven streaky. I like the way Dozier plays but is he so good we should rush into an extension years before we need to? What's best case scenario? We save a few million? I guess I don't see that outweighing the risk. I'd advocate that for an elite talent. A good talent? No thanks.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Right, I'd rather avoid the near ready prospects in such a deal. As for recent examples, the AL champs pulled off exactly this kind of deal with Shields. You could argue the Nats and Gio Gonzalez. Indians and Ubaldo. It's not that far fetched if you truly believe in the near-ready talent.
  16. TheLeviathan
    I would never hold off on a trade for a pitcher as good as Hamels based on blocking prospects. Never.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I agree, I find it pretty unlikely we would trade for or sign him with Ryan in charge.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure which of these things to tackle first. Let's start with the fact that no one is suggesting we scrap development or reliance on the farm. Next, this team is in the top half of the league in revenue according to Forbes. Yes there are massive spending advantages for some teams. Good thing acquiring Cole Hamels doesn't mean we have to engage in that. We're trading for him, not signing him on the open market. Third - the fact that all those players are on the way is reason, in my opinion, to start improving the current roster. Not forego it for 3-4 years. Fourth - while the Yankees might be "anchored" by bad FA signings, teams with failed prospects also get "anchored". See the Royals and Pirates for the last several decades. I fully understand this is a business - I see ratings dropping. Ticket sales dropping. Apathy about this team growing. I'd want to turn the needle back towards relevancy again and Hamels is a step in that direction. I'd want to avoid giving up any guys like Meyer or Rosario who are close to the big leagues, but I'd certainly talk about most anyone to land a player like him.
  19. TheLeviathan
    This assumes we're even willing to play in the neighborhood of Hamels-caliber FAs. I am 100% unconvinced we will ever do that under Terry Ryan. It's extremely hard to build a top-flight rotation merely by drafting and developing. Cole Hamels is consistent, highly effective, and durable. What he might do is launch this team to the next level and start to change that perception you're talking about.
  20. TheLeviathan
    The two aren't mutually exclusive, the team can keep building their own Hamels while trading for the actual one. As a host of teams have shown lately, moving prospects for stars isn't exactly crippling because the bust rate on prospects is high. I'd explore this deal if it costs us Kohl Stewart and a couple other pieces for sure.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Extending your relationship with Plouffe by a year doesn't change your standing in any way. You MIGHT save a little bit of money at the risk of feeling it's wasted at some later date. Are we so far removed from Blackburn or Joe Mays that we think these sorts of moves have no downside? I liked it with Span and even with Perkins, but it's not always a good idea.
  22. TheLeviathan
    This thread reflects our reality the last four years: a guy plays competently and we fall all over ourselves to hand them millions for half a decade. Let's let the career play out a bit and assess his value when we aren't awful.
  23. TheLeviathan
    So back to the thread topic, thanks Seth for posting these articles about Allen. He seems quirky and highly respected, sounds like quite an addition to the staff.
  24. TheLeviathan
    They're rare because the union heavily pressures against them. I've tried, largely in vain, to get people to stop suggesting these because they just don't happen with regularity for a reason. Only in hockey and football is it accepted practice,in baseball and basketball it is taboo.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Except there can be serious consequences to not waiting. Dozier's offensive production has been very streaky and you run the risk in paying him huge money now that he becomes the Twins version of Allen Craig or many other guys who got paid too soon. There is just something about Dozier's game I don't trust Longterm.
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