kab21

I think you need to review some draft history and look at how often teams in the top 5 or top 10 didn't even get a decent hitter/pitcher with their pick. There are years when there are obvious elite pitchers available and they go #1 or #2 (Strasburg, Price, Verlander and Prior for example) and then there are a whole pile of good but not great pitching prospects that have varying levels of success from pretty good to AAAA players. the problem is that you are dealing with tiny sample size of players (8) and think you are seeing a trend in 2001. In my data there were 12 pitchers drafted in 1st rd, 10 pitchers drafted after the 1st rd and 3 int'l FA's. My data shows a clump of players from '97-'02 that were drafted in the later rds. there is also a clump of 1st rd'ers drafted from '02-'07. I believe these clumps would even out if the sample size was larger. I think you're overestimating the likelihood of finding an ace using any avenue of acquisition. You only consider there to be 8 aces from 7-8 years of drafts/int'l signings. It's incredibly difficult for any team to acquire one. It's even more difficult if you don't have the #1 overall pick.

I'm not really in the camp that believes Gausman or Zimmer are likely aces. I think they are more in the should be good with a small chance of being an ace. Currently I don't even rank Manaea as high as them. Even before he struggled a little this year there were some questions regarding his secondary pitches. If Meadows or Frazier (different types of players) come close to the buxton level from last year then it will make it very difficult to pick a pitcher imo. Same argument for Humphries but he's a college slugger. I absolutely want them to take a pitcher but I'm not convinced that it won't be a reach to do so.

I said it in another thread but prospects get promoted at midseason unless injuries happen and the team needs players from the lower levels. Nobody anywhere in the minors is blocking buxton. If he stays hot then he should be promoted midseason. The one interesting part could be kepler needing a promotion at some point.

It's not about anyone on Ft Myers blocking anyone. It's about Ft Myers not having enough OF'ers to field a team and they need to promote people to handle that. The fact is that the Twins typically promote at midseason if they are going to promote someone during the season.

I wait a little before I vault guys from below a tier to the absolute top of the draft.

It doesn't take a baseball expert to see the difference between Parmelee's defensive skill set and Dozier's.

Manaea has done just enough to stay in the 2nd tier of prospects. Appel has moved to the top by himself although he might not get taken 1st Gray - is ahead of Manaea Meadows - All 3 of the hitters here make a strong case for #2 overall Frazier Humphries Manaea - can he make a case to stay in this tier and not get drafted ahead of the Twins pick?

I think you underestimate just how many innings these young pitchers will get a chance to throw this year. but I'm not even sure that harang is better than Correia.

I think it's too early make any judgements about Dozier. It was just a couple of days ago when some thought Parmelee was looking lost at the plate.

Dozier will be lucky to be an average or better starter but it would be silly to bail on him. At this point I would be thrilled if he was a below average starter since all of the other options are well below that.

Your expectations are way too high if a James Shields career for any draft pick is not what you are looking for. 3 times in the last decade there have been a Strasburg, Verlander and Price in the draft. If there isn't an elite pitcher in the draft then your chances of acquiring a true ace by your definition go down significantly. I think you are cherry picking your 2001 cut date. There are several late rd'ers that were picked in 2000 and 2001 while there are several HS first rd'ers picked in 2002. If you move that date around a year or two the numbers change. Additionally many of these aces have been traded or signed as FA's so it's possible to acquire aces other ways than in the first rd of the draft as you contend.

Unless there is an injury (ow two) that really shakes up the Ft Myers roster buxton isn't going anywhere until midseason imo. he is hot right now though. Arcia 2/3 to start the day. He just keeps hitting at every level he's been at.

What a mess you made...

Here is the list that I came up with a couple of weeks ago using cumulative ERA- for a relatively long period. Most of the names match up and guys like Strasburg, Gio and Darvish aren't on the list but should be in a couple of years.

The problem is that there is very little young pitching to invest innings in other than Gibson. Harang has been wrecked for years and I'm not even sure he's an upgrade for this woeful rotation.

It's a pretty good reason why pitchers should always be given the chance in the bullpen even if they look terrible as a starter. Dropping their worst pitch from their arsenal and picking up 2mph on their fastball make them a completely different pitcher. This is also an example of why so many are frustrated by how many RP'ers the Twins draft in rds 2-5. I can understand if they think they can make them starters but most of the guys didn't have the durability or stuff to be starters from day one.

I absolutely agree regarding Dozier but likewise Escobar has done nothing to warrant starting over Florimon. both of these guys are utility players in a starting role. I favor Escobar a little but I'm not going to get worked up about either of them starting. I'm actually pleased that the Twins might have found a pair of utility guys for the MLB min instead of paying money to guys like Carroll. now if they can just find a starting SS.

I'm not sure if you actually looked at my analysis. I had 25 on my list and there were 11 drafted after the 1st rd.

A lot of offense for Ft Myers Rosario 2/5 with a HR. Sano 3/4 BB and 2B Vargas 2/5 2B

It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments makes in the next couple of weeks. I wasn't too high on his MLB batting skills this year but this is not a good start. It's a little disturbing how much his body and to a certain extent his face reminds me of Carlos Gomez. So far he hasn't displayed any of his antics that bothered me for so long.

I think you are way ahead of yourself. The only good to great player that is lurking is Arcia. Everyone else is pretty questionable (Benson) or years away (Buxton/Kepler/etc). Doumit is also not a lock at DH imo either. I also still expect the Twins to trade Willingham near the deadline.

I think the biggest part of the back and forth was figuring out how many to include in the ace category. The 8 that you picked doesn't allow us to make any statistical conclusions because the sample size is too small. Including near aces brings a little more clarity to the subject and you start seeing trends. College pitchers that become aces usually get drafted really at the top (like Appel should) or at least in the top 10-15. HS pitchers that become aces are scattered throughout the first rd and that makes sense also. They pitched against all kinds of competition and usually significant projection and time is required for that to happen. The disappointing trend is that int'l FA's rarely turned into #1/2's. the suprising trend was that there were a lot of #2's that were picked in later rd from college ball. If you look at the list (Haren, Wilson, Hudson, Lee, Webb, Harden, Oswalt) though it's not filled with many stuff pitchers (other than Harden) but guys that excelled on control. What does this mean for this draft? Appel might be in the Verlander/Price/Strasburg tier of draftees but if you're looking for a collegiate pitcher as an ace it probably isn't happening. Perhaps one of the guys in this draft can become Sheets/Weaver but the odds are against. You are more likely getting a #3/4 starter if you go the college route. If you really want an ace then start looking at the wild card HS pitchers similar to last year's Max Fried. He kind of has that Kershaw/Bundy type of awesome scouting report but there is significantly more risk and time required for a HS pitcher to make it. So far there are very few similar HS pitchers that have popped up on my radar. The hitting thing would be interesting to look at sometime. I feel fairly certain that latin players would have a significantly higher success rate. This is especially true in the MI.

If you want Manaea to be there at #4 it's not bad news...

I was distressed when checking the low A boxscore. I didn't recognize one player in Beloit's lineup. Frankly i didn't even have a clue who these guys were. Cedar Rapids, cedar rapids, cedar rapids. Buxton led off the game with a HR of Michael Ynoa. That name should sound familiar because he was 2008's int'l FA prize (one year prior to Sano). He was 6'6" and already throwing in the low to mid 90's. Fast forward 5 yrs and he is just making it to low A ball due to a mix of injuries and ineffectiveness.

I really don't understand the floriman love in the org but this is a situation where the Twins have 4 utility IF'ers on the roster and 2 of them need to start. Please Dozier become more than a utility IF'er. It would be so nice to have one spot filled with a halfway decent player.