Well the MSM spends way more time on national polls as though a national poll really says anything. Until the first debate is over I go by national polls. I see it right now as obama up 2-3 which would give him a fairly big EC win, but nobody really knows what kind of closer either Obama and Romney are. The 08 election was decided when McCain stood with Obama on the bailout, Obama had a decent lead, but never had to finish the job. Romney has won elections and lost them in one state, a state that he should have lost in everytime. I've seen some debate footage from Mass and he can be real forceful and tough. After Obama's convention speech I was 100% convinced Romney would win, but Obama's convention bounce still lingers although Rassmunsen is back to about where things were pre conventions (Romney +2). The first debate will decide this thing, given reality it's Romney's to lose. If I had to make a prediction I'd guess Romney wins all current "swing states" plus 1 probably Michigan.