Thrylos

Seth, last season I'd rather seen Steve Hirschfeld, Bobby Lanigan, Tyler Robertson (all repeat performers at AA last season, btw) than Eric Hacker, Thomas (not Scott) Diamond, Yorman Bazardo and Andrew Baldwin, for example. Position players are a different story, but as soon as they signed Bates, Baily should have been cut. Toby was around way too much and if his last name were anything but Gardenhire, he wouldn't had been around...

Here is my breadown of his contract extension

It is a 3 year $10.3 Million dollar extension. Smart deal for the Twins

If Liriano goes something like 12-6 with an ERA at low 3s or below around trading deadline and the Twins are 5 games ahead, there is no way they do not keep him to finish the season. They might trade him afterwards, but the backlash would be incredible if they do at that point.

There is talent in the Twins' organization, but my major objection on the way that the Twins are dealing with AAA (to please Rochester among other things is that they sign a whole bunch of never-had beens and throw them there that keeps Twins' prospect talent in New Britain and Fort Myers.) I do get the point to target 3-4 good veterans in their 20s (from the 2010 season heap pile Aaron Bates and Ray Chang fit the bill.) But getting the likes of 30yo+ players in Rochester while repressing Twins' prospect talent development does not make much sense. Given they did better this season. Hughes will enter his age 27 season, Plouffe his age 26. I think that they were not "rushed" by any means. It is just that the Twins have this way of developing talent slower than most teams. The heap-pile signings I refered to previously contribute big time to that because there is the domino effect.

Here is the basic premise: The Twins have a whole bunch of relievers in their Spring Training Camp who are batting for 3 spots on the 25-man roster. I listed and analysed these players previously. Spring training is long and it is hard to track each appearance of each player, trying to have an objective view of how this battle might be ending (or at least trending,) especially, when the usual statistics fail with such a small sample size. Yesterday I created a dashboard to look at each pitcher's performance on a daily basis and use visual color clues to get the big picture at once. That was step one. But for some reason I was not really happy with it. My major objection to that first iteration was that individual daily performances were subjective. "Average", "above average" and "below average" were determined by glances at boxscores and what I saw or heardin games. Not too good. Plus, there are various degrees of greatness or non-greatness, and those need to be separated. Thus the need for quantification and for an objective way to measure each pitcher's daily performance and I think that I found it: It is a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score". Truth of the matter is that James created that to measure starting pitcher performance, but I think that it is applicable here and will fit my purpose (albeit things will be a bit compressed on the top, but the middle and the bottom will differentiate nicely.) What is Game Score? Here is how it is determined: You start with 50 points for each pitcher. Add 1 point for each out. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit. Subtract 4 points for each earned run. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run. Subtract 1 point for each walk. There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here. All you need to calculate Game Score is a box score and a calculator. Done deal. However, there are no box scores for B games, and the caveat is I cannot include them (which might not be that bad in the big schema of things.) I am ready to present the final version of the 2012 Spring Training Bullpen Battle Dashboard. I will update the dashboard and post it on a weekly basis. The next update will be early next week before the first cuts are made. Like the previous version, performances are classified as "above average" (green color), "average (yellow), "below average" (red). But now there are numbers there to tell how much bellow or above average each performance is. I also average all performances to day, list that average in the first column and color the pitcher's name accordingly as well. Following, there is a ranking of all pitchers in the list based on their average game score this spring training. Game Scored of 49-51 are "average", everything higher than 51 "above average", and everything below 49 "below average". Here is what the dashboard looks, including yesterday's game at Baltimore: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7050/6963061633_ae85820474_o.jpg And here is the ranking: Terry Doyle 56 Carlos Gutierrez 55 Liam Hendriks 55 Matt Maloney 54.5 Jared Burton 53.5 Tyler Robertson 53 Aaron Thompson 53 Brendan Wise 53 Casey Fien 52.5 Kyle Waldrop 52 P.J. Walters 52 Esmerling Vasquez 51.5 --- Luis Perdomo 49.5 Jeff Manship 49 --- Alex Burnett 48.5 Daryl Thompson 48 Lester Oliveros 46 Phil Dumatrait 45 Scott Diamond 42 Jeff Gray 41 Jason Bulger 25 Deolis Guerra 21 Samuel Deduno DNP Of course this is a small sample size at this point and will change during the next weeks, but I think that I have found a way to dashboard Twins' pitchers' performance this Spring. I am keeping track of the performances of the pitchers who I consider locks to make the team, but I will wait to publish for another week or so, because these players are not part of this discussion. There are some pretty obvious outliers here, especially at the low end of performance, so it will be interesting to see how things will play out this weekend and early next week before the first cuts. ----- Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch

Here is the basic premise: The Twins have a whole bunch of relievers in their Spring Training Camp who are batting for 3 spots on the 25-man roster. I listed and analysed these players previously. Spring training is long and it is hard to track each appearance of each player, trying to have an objective view of how this battle might be ending (or at least trending,) especially, when the usual statistics fail with such a small sample size. Yesterday I created a dashboard to look at each pitcher's performance on a daily basis and use visual color clues to get the big picture at once. That was step one. But for some reason I was not really happy with it. My major objection to that first iteration was that individual daily performances were subjective. "Average", "above average" and "below average" were determined by glances at boxscores and what I saw or heardin games. Not too good. Plus, there are various degrees of greatness or non-greatness, and those need to be separated. Thus the need for quantification and for an objective way to measure each pitcher's daily performance and I think that I found it: It is a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score". Truth of the matter is that James created that to measure starting pitcher performance, but I think that it is applicable here and will fit my purpose (albeit things will be a bit compressed on the top, but the middle and the bottom will differentiate nicely.) What is Game Score? Here is how it is determined: You start with 50 points for each pitcher. Add 1 point for each out. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit. Subtract 4 points for each earned run. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run. Subtract 1 point for each walk. There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here. All you need to calculate Game Score is a box score and a calculator. Done deal. However, there are no box scores for B games, and the caveat is I cannot include them (which might not be that bad in the big schema of things.) I am ready to present the final version of the 2012 Spring Training Bullpen Battle Dashboard. I will update the dashboard and post it on a weekly basis. The next update will be early next week before the first cuts are made. Like the previous version, performances are classified as "above average" (green color), "average (yellow), "below average" (red). But now there are numbers there to tell how much bellow or above average each performance is. I also average all performances to day, list that average in the first column and color the pitcher's name accordingly as well. Following, there is a ranking of all pitchers in the list based on their average game score this spring training. Game Scored of 49-51 are "average", everything higher than 51 "above average", and everything below 49 "below average". Here is what the dashboard looks, including yesterday's game at Baltimore: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7050/6963061633_ae85820474_o.jpg And here is the ranking: Terry Doyle 56 Carlos Gutierrez 55 Liam Hendriks 55 Matt Maloney 54.5 Jared Burton 53.5 Tyler Robertson 53 Aaron Thompson 53 Brendan Wise 53 Casey Fien 52.5 Kyle Waldrop 52 P.J. Walters 52 Esmerling Vasquez 51.5 --- Luis Perdomo 49.5 Jeff Manship 49 --- Alex Burnett 48.5 Daryl Thompson 48 Lester Oliveros 46 Phil Dumatrait 45 Scott Diamond 42 Jeff Gray 41 Jason Bulger 25 Deolis Guerra 21 Samuel Deduno DNP Of course this is a small sample size at this point and will change during the next weeks, but I think that I have found a way to dashboard Twins' pitchers' performance this Spring. I am keeping track of the performances of the pitchers who I consider locks to make the team, but I will wait to publish for another week or so, because these players are not part of this discussion. There are some pretty obvious outliers here, especially at the low end of performance, so it will be interesting to see how things will play out this weekend and early next week before the first cuts. ----- Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch

Here is the thing (and, as you very well know, I am less of a Terry Ryan fan than you are ) : I agree. Everyone in this organization should be held accountable, but to hold someone accountable you have to see results. If this season is another losing season, then Ryan cannot be held accountable (and Gardy and others). But you cannot hold someone accountable for projected or imaginary results. Let's see the results and then we can start pointing fingers (if you are into pointing out fingers.)

Thanks for sharing and good luck this season!

This morning when I was trying to compile a scorecard for the pitchers who are battling for bullpen spots, I realized that Sam Deduno has yet to appear in a game this Spring. There have been no news of an injury or another issue and he did report, so things are not clear about what's up. When I asked one of the beat reporters, he said that he things that there might be a hamstring issue and he will check out. I know that he has been pitching batting practice for sure, including yesterday. (so if he is injured he probably would not do that, unless he is getting better and we will see him in a day or two in a game.) Any ideas of what is going on? Just curious, because if he is a week behind, his chances of making the team are close to those of Jason Bulger's.

The AL East changed a lot the last decade. The Rays went from bottom feeders to contenders (and that is reflected in what you see). Baltimore has been getting worse and worse by the season. The Yankees stayed pretty much the same, the Red Sox improved slightly and the Jays have been close to .500 for a decade. I think that a more interesting and telling comparison would be the Twins' record against teams (all divisions and leagues) which had records >.500 if you exclude the games they played against the Twins.

I think that the Giolito injury is a proof that this question is way way premature. A month or so before the draft might be the right time to ask it

Agree with Seth... Hitting Pavano in the back today while try to throw a runner out stealing second, might be the straw that broke the camel's back (no pun intended) On the other hand, I don't think that AJ Burnett is a lock, either.

Our old friend Steve Tolleson singles but runner thrown out at home. ERA down to 81

Strikeout now... one out

Maybe we should start a pool about which will be higher this Spring: Bulger's ERA or Butera's BA (he got a hit so that's up to .143)

3-run double. ERA up to 243 still no outs

Another single, bases still loaded no outs. Bulger so far: Single, BB, HBP, Single, ERA up to 182

Bulger stinking up the place again. Bases loaded nobody out

Not Liriano-like variation. Liriano varies from brilliant to awful while Blackburn varies from slightly above average to awful.

Apparently Butera hit Pavano in the back when he try to throw to second to throw a runner away...

The keyword in the announcement is that the UCL is sprained and not torn. The correct treatment for spained UCL is rest and rehab. The ligament is stressed but in one piece, you just don't take it off. A bone analogy is a deep bone bruise vs a fracture...

This was originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch and is reposted here --- Previously, I listed all the players who are battling for one of the 3 bullpen spots this Spring Training. Because they are so many, I decided to create a spreadsheet and keep track of their performance this Spring day by day, using color coding and symbols to get a quick visual. In other words, creating a dashboard of their performance. Green (+) is better than average appearance that day, yellow (0) is average appearance that day, red (-) is below average appearance that day, uncolored (DNP) is did not play that day. As players get cut, their dashboard lines will be in italics. I am also using the same convension to color the players' names, to see overall performance the spring. I also think that looking at how often someone pitches is important, and as spring training progresses, looking at trends. Here is the version including all games (including B games) up to 3/6/12, without any comments. My comments about the bullpen battle can be found here (that was before yesterday's game) : http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7042/6815815030_7676435d51_o.jpg

This was originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch and is reposted here --- Previously, I listed all the players who are battling for one of the 3 bullpen spots this Spring Training. Because they are so many, I decided to create a spreadsheet and keep track of their performance this Spring day by day, using color coding and symbols to get a quick visual. In other words, creating a dashboard of their performance. Green (+) is better than average appearance that day, yellow (0) is average appearance that day, red (-) is below average appearance that day, uncolored (DNP) is did not play that day. As players get cut, their dashboard lines will be in italics. I am also using the same convension to color the players' names, to see overall performance the spring. I also think that looking at how often someone pitches is important, and as spring training progresses, looking at trends. Here is the version including all games (including B games) up to 3/6/12, without any comments. My comments about the bullpen battle can be found here (that was before yesterday's game) : http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7042/6815815030_7676435d51_o.jpg

I think that I left this comment in the wrong place so I am reposting it here: I am trying to do a bit of math, looking at Mauer's slash line, career tendencies and 2011 line: Career average isoD (OBP-BA) is .080, 2011 isoD was .073 Career average isoP (SLG-BA) is .148, 2011 isoP was .081 with a .310 BA, using career averages OBP would be .390 and SLG .458; and 2011 (worse case) numbers OBP would be .383 and SLG .391 so that .310/.370./.460 assumes a career isoP and a well below career isoD, which may result if he becomes more of a free swinger, but I highly doubt that. I really think that .310/.385/.450 might probably be more realistic; however, I really think that that .310 will be closer to .325 this season