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Thrylos

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  1. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---------
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
    This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, 31-35 here, and all segments in the series here.
     
    30. Lewis Thorpe (17)
    DOB: 11/23/1995; Age: 21
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: R, Throws: L
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Thorpe was signed on July 12th of 2012 by the Twins to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player, $500,000. The Melbourne native He has not pitched since September of 2014 resting and rehabilitating his left UCL, which eventually required Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015. He lost all of 2016 with mononucleosis.
     
    Thorpe has 4 pitches, including a plus mid 90s fastball, a plus change up and curveball and an improving slider/cutter. His 2014 season in Cedar Rapids, even before the injury was somewhat of a disappointment compared to his 2013 season in Elizabethton (12 G, 8 GS, 44 IP, 64 K, 13.1 K/9, 38.1 K%, 6 BB, 1.2 BB/9, 34.5 K-BB%, 2.05 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.86 WHIP, .319 BABIP), showing considerable control issues (a career high 4.5 BB/9) and was fairly ineffective (4.24 FIP). He was a lefty strikeout pitcher, which means that there is a lot of potential, but losing two seasons has certainly set him back. There are several questions about Thorpe, in addition to the obvious that is how his elbow procedure will impact his stuff: his durability in a game and during the season has been a bit of a concern. A huge question mark right now, thus the drop from 11th in 2015 to 30th now.
     
    Likely 2017 path: In the Cedar Rapids rotation, with an outside chance to make the Fort Myers rotation, depending on the elbow and performance
     
    29. Lachlan Wells (26)
    DOB: 2/27/1997; Age: 19
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: L, Throws: L
    Height: 5'8", Weight: 165 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    The Twins signed Lachlan Wells as an international free agent from Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia on November 21, 2014 for $400,000. The diminutive Australian made his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. He played in 10 games (9 GS) and pitched 47.3 innings, walking 11 (2.1 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%) and striking out 49 (9.3 K/9, 26.5% K%) for a 2.09 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP (.263 BABIP). Last season he bypassed Elizabethton to play for Cedar Rapids in late June after Extented Spring Training. For the Kernals he made 12 starts for 71-1/3 IP, walking 16 (2.0 BB/9, 16.7 K-BB%) and striking out 63 (8.0 K/9, 16.7% K%) for a 1.77 ERA (3.28 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP (.272 BABIP). Other than the drop in strikeouts, his results have been very similar to his 2015, two levels of competition higher where he was about 3 years younger than the average player, which is encouraging.
     
    Size is a concern with 5'8" Wells. He is just 19, but has not grown any more the past 3 seasons. He throws an above average 90-93 mph fastball, a work in progress but solid average curveball and a changeup that is close to plus and is his out pitch. His mechanics and complex delivery is a concern regarding durability. So far his spits against lefties and righties are about similar with only one big difference: He produces much more ground balls against lefties that he does against righties. It could be the more frequent use of the changeup, but it is an interesting data point. The Twins have kept Wells as a starter thus far, but the bullpen might be a more realistic place for him in the future
     
    Likely 2017 path: In the Fort Myers rotation
     
    28. D.J. Baxendale (--)
    DOB: 12/8/1990; Age: 26
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'2", Weight: 190 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 10th round in 2012
    Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2016)
    ETA: 2017
     
    D.J. Baxendale was drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2012 draft from the University of Arkansas as a Junior. The Jacksonville, AR native was the Razorbacks' most dependable starter in his senior year starting 20 games, pitching 107 innings, striking out 96 (8.1 K/9) walking 29 (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.11 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He led his team in starts, wins and strikeouts. He continued 2012 as a pro in the pen dominating the Rookie Appalachian League in Elizabethton (6 G, 7-2/3 IP, 16 K, 18.8 K/9, 64.0 K%, 1 BB, 1.1 BB/9, 60 K-BB%, 0.00 ERA, -0.06 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .125 BABIP) and A Midwest League in Beloit (11 G, 11 IP, 16 K, 12.3 K/9, 33.3 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 31.1 K-BB%, 1.64 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .414 BABIP,) albeit in relative small samples. The Twins have seen enough of him, including this incredible Spring Training performance that I was lucky to witness and decribe, that they placed him in the A+ Florida State League Fort Myers Miracle rotation, where he pitched like an Ace: (9 GS, 57-1/3 IP, 48 K, 7.5 K/9, 22.4 K%, 11 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 17.3 K-BB%, 1.10 ERA, 0.78 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .212 BABIP, 7-0 record,) moving to AA New Britain in late May when he suffered an arm injury in his first game pitched and eventually landed on the DL mid-June until the All-Star break. His numbers in New Britain left a lot to be desired (16 GS, 92-2/3 IP, 64 K, 6.2 K/9, 15.7 K%, 22 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 10.3 K-BB%, 5.63 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, .317 BABIP, 5-7 record.) Both his ERA and FIP were bloated because of the 13 HRs he allowed, a sign that he was leaving his Fastball high in the zone, potentially due to his arm issues. Still, in 2013 Baxendale lead the Twins organization in wins and was one of very few Twins prospects to ever make it to AA in their second professional season. 2014 was an even more frustrating season for Baxendale, starting again at AA New Britain where he was placed in the DL in April, was back to Fort Myers in June, making a rehab start for the GCL Twins in August and pitching a few more games for the Miracle in late August. That was a season totally lost in injuries. He pitched a total 90-1/3 innings that season hurt most of the time, and would have been better served rehabilitating his injuries instead of aggravating them. In 2015 the Twins moved their AA team to the Southern League Chattanooga, and Baxendale got the opportunity to pitch closer to home and had a better season (23 G, 21 GS, 118-1/3 IP, 92 K, 7.0 K/9, 17.9 K%, 40 BB, 3.0 BB/9, 10.1 K-BB%, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP) but most importantly a healthy season. Last season he was caught in the numbers and started the season for the 4th year in a row in the AA rotation with results improved from 2015 (14 GS, 81 IP, 59 K, 6.5 K/9, 17.7 K%, 16 BB, 1.8 BB/9, 12.9 K-BB%, 3.44 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, .308 BABIP) but not dramatically. At this point at his age 25 Baxendale looked like organizational depth pitcher, until he moved to the AAA Rochester pen last June, where he excelled. He appeared in 23 games, pitching 35 innings, striking out 40 K (10.3 K/9, 28.4 K%,) and walking 8 (2.1 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%), finishing with 1.29 ERA, 2.03 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP (.297 BABIP) picking up where he left Fort Myers in 2013. But one cannot ignore 2014 and 2015
     
    Baxendale has a 91-92 fastball with great sinking action, which jumps up to 93-94 from the pen. He has a plus slow (low 70s) curve and as a starter has been throwing an above average mid 80s slider/cutter and an average changeup. His command and control is excellent, especially when healthy. If his fastball is down the zone, it is pretty much unhittable. Supplementing it with a plus curveball as an out pitch makes Baxendale a potentially very effective reliever. He is equally effective against both lefties and righties, inducing massive strikeouts to lefties (he struck out 20 of the 58 lefties he faced in Rochester for 38.5 K%), and decent strikeouts (22.5 K%) and ground outs 1.7 GO/AO to righties. A comparable pitcher is current Twins' reliever Brandon Kintzler, but Baxendale will produce more strikeouts and be better against lefties. Health is a consideration here, and Baxendale has to prove that his second half in 2016 was not a mirage.
     
    Likely 2017 path: In the Rochester pen and depending on performance in Minnesota by mid-season
     
    27. Trevor Hildenberger (--)
    DOB: 12/15/1990; Age: 26
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'2", Weight: 211 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 22nd round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Trevor Hildenberger was drafted by the Twins in the 22nd round of the 2014 draft from the University of California Berkeley as a Senior. The San Fransisco area native was Twins' Michael Theofanopoulos roommate and the Golden Bears' closer. In his senior year he appeared in 28 games (47-2/3 IP) striking out 48 (9.1 K/9,) walking 11 (2.1 BB/9) and finishing with 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10 saves. He continued his season and started his pro career at the GCL where he was the Twins' closer pitching in 23 games (28 IP), allowing 30 K (9.6, 25.2 K%) and 5 BB (1.6, 21 K-BB%) finishing with 2.57 ERA, 2.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP (.317 BABIP), and another 10 saves. He also pitched a single inning that season in Elizabethton striking out 2 hitters and allowing neither hits nor walks. Hildenberger moved to A class Cedar Rapids in the beginning of next season, putting career-best numbers (28 G, 45 IP, 59 K, 11.8 K/9, 35.5 K%, 5 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 32.5 K-BB%, 0.80 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.64 WHIP, .238 BABIP, 10 SV). He moved up to A+ Fort Myers on late July pitching also successfully (13 G, 19 IP, 21 K, 10.0 K/9, 29.2 K%, 2 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 26.4 K-BB%, 3.32 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, .313 BABIP, 3 SV). He earned a selection in the Arizona Fall League where he appeared for 8 games. Last season he stayed in Fort Myers for the beginning continuing his success (6 G, 9-1/3 IP, 8 K, 7.7 K/9, 20.5 K%, 0 BB, 0.0 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%, 0.96 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .355 BABIP, 3 SV) earning an early promotion to AA Chattanooga in late April. Again, another level for Hildenberger and he did not miss a beat (32 G, 38-2/3 IP, 45 K, 10.5 K/9, 31.3 K%, 6 BB, 1.4 BB/9, 27.1 K-BB%, 0.70 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 0.70 WHIP, .211 BABIP, 3 SV) until his season was ended on July 20 with right elbow tendinitis.
     
    Hildenberger has a deceptive low slot delivery. He has a plus fastball with a lot of sink at 91-93 mph. Against righties he throws a very effective frisbee slider, and against lefties a plus change up. Plus plus command and control, he barely walks hitters and can throw all his pitches for strikes despite his funky delivery. He induces 2.5 times ground outs as fly outs against righties. His control and strikeout numbers give him almost elite K-BB% numbers. He has end of the bullpen potential, but, even though his UCL ligament is said to be okay, elbow injuries are always of concern. At 26, he has always been 1-3 years older than the competition at every step of his professional career.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Depending on the elbow health, starting at the Chattanooga pen with a promotion to Rochester mid season
     
    26. Niko Goodrum (37)
    DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: IF/CF
    Bats: S, Throws: R
    Height: 6'3", Weight: 198 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2010
    Professional Experience: 7; Highest level: AA (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2017
     
    Niko Goodrum was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft from Fayette County (GA) High School. It is hard to believe that Goodrum has already spent seven seasons in the Twins' organization and he is just 24 years old, turning 25 during the coming Spring Training. Goodrum was drafted early as a shortstop with five tool potential, but until this past season, other than his speed, he has been somewhat disappointing for a high level draft pick with a $514,800 signing bonus. Other than his glove that was attrocious at SS early in his career and necessitated a move to third base at Fort Myers in 2014, he has not been outright bad, with wRC+ hovering from 97-114 every season, but he did not fulfill the high expectations, and advanced slowly, making two stops at Elizabethton, one at Cedar Rapids, three at Fort Myers and two in Chattanooga. 2016 was an interesting season for Goodrum. He missed the first half with a stress fracture on his foot, but came back and had a breakthrough season. In 6 rehab games at Fort Myers (26 AB), he hit .280/.308/.560 with 149 wRC+ before he moved to Chattanooga where he finished the season with .275/.357/.451, 22 BB and 52 K, in 49 games (207 AB) with a 133 wRC+. He hit 7 HRs and was 9/11 in SB for the season. He stole 29 bases in 2015, but for half season and with a foot fracture, his 2016 total was expected. To get the additional AB, Goodrum played in the Venezuela League, where he hit .284/.354/.431 with 13 BB and 29 K in 116 AB. All in all Goodrum has 349 AB in 2016 with very promising results.
     
    Goodrum is a switch hitter that hits equally well from each side of the plate. He played at every infield position and centerfield. As indicated, his defense turned him from a shortstop to a third baseman earlier, but he has proven inadequate in that position. However the last two seasons, his play back at shortstop as well as centerfield, has been above average, reducing his errors by a lot. This positional versatility and a potential sustainability of his success with the bat last season, may indicate that Goodrum might have a major league future as a utility player.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Invited to the Twins' spring training with the potential to win a spot depending on performance and whether Dozier will still be with the Twins. Likely at the MLB-level at some point in the season depending on performance and injuries.
  2. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----------
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, and all segments in the series here.
     
    35. John Curtiss (--)
    DOB: 4/5/1993; Age: 23
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'4", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    John Curtiss was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the sixth round of the 2014 Draft out of the University of Texas. The Southlake,TX native graduated in 3 years with a double major in History and English. He was a reliever in Texas and missed all of 2013 with a Tommy John and thoracic outlet syndrome surgeries in the summer of 2012. He returned in 2014 as the Texas closer, pitching in 28 games (made one start) for 43-1/3 innings allowing 15 walks (3.1 BB/9) and striking out 33 (6.9 K/9) finishing the season with a 2.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He was one of the relievers the Twins tried to convert as a starter and he continued 2014 in Elizabethton where he pitched 9 games (6 starts) for 31.1 innings, striking out 41 (11.8 K, 31.8 K%) and walking 7 (2.0 BB/9, 26.3 K-BB%) for a 2.30 ERA, 2.03 FIP and 1.28 WHIP (.400 BABIP). Curtiss, who is also a budding Country music singer songwriter, started the 2015 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation; however he suffered a concussion on early April that bothered him most of the season and he lost 2 months. He went to the GCL Twins' bullpen for a 5 game rehab assignment where he effective but wild under much younger competition (5 G, 8 IP, 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.13 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .304 BABIP). His numbers at Cedar Rapids were a total loss (16 G, 7 GS, 46 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2 BB/9, 6.07 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, .371 BABIP). He repeated Cedar Rapids, as a reliever this time in 2016 with much better results and concussion-free. He pitched only in 6 games for 8 innings, striking out 17 (19.1 K/9, 58.6 K%) and walking 2 (2.3 BB/9, 51.7 K-BB%), with a 0.00 ERA, 0.35 FIP and 0.50 WHIP (.222 BABIP). This was good enough to move to A+ Fort Myers where he pitched in 38 more games (53 IP), striking out 68 (11.6 K/9, 30.6 K%) and walking 23 (3.9 BB/9, 20.3%) He finished with a 3.06 ERA, 2.10 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP (.326 BABIP). The Twins still see him as a potential starter so he was sent to the Arizona Fall League to get additional innings. He participated in 11 games and pitched 12-2/3 innings in relied with solid results (2.84 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 12.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 33.3 K%, 25.9 K-BB%, 1.34 WHIP and .400 BABIP)
     
    He throws a plus to plus plus fastball with terrific movement that sits at 94-96 and flashes 97-98 and an average 84-86 mph slider, along with an average change up. Because of the three picture mix the Twins were thinking that he still has starter potential; not sure what the new heads of the Twins' baseball would think about Curtiss who is a close to MLB-ready reliever at this point.
     
    Likely 2017 path: In the Chattanooga rotation or bullpen
     
    34. Dereck Rodriguez (--)
    DOB: 6/5/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round in 2011
    Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: A+ (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Dereck Rodriguez was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the sixth round of the 2011 Draft out of Monsignor Edward Pace High School, Miami Gardens, FL. Rodriguez, the son (and namesake, Dereck is his middle name) of Ivan Rodriguez was drafted as an outfielder by the Twins and converted to pitcher in 2014. As a hitter he competed his 3-season professional career hitting .216/.279/.336 with 6 HRs, in 132 games (375 PA). His first season as a pitcher, 2014, he started in extended spring training and moved to Elizabethton pitching as a reliever in 17 games (25-2/3 IP), striking out 19 (6.7 K/9, 18.5 K%) and walking 8 (2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K-BB%) finishing with 1.05 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.05 WHIP (.260 BABIP). He also started 2015 in Extended Spring Training, with a single game break to pitch 2 innings in relief for the Miracle. He moved to Cedar Rapids on June 2nd where he started 2 games with disaterous results (9 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 3 K, 3 WP) and was demoted to Elizabethton where he salvaged his season. He started 12 games (66-1/3 IP), striking out 61 (8.3 K/9, 22.4%) and walking 11 (1.5 BB/9, 18.4 K-BB%), ending up with a 2.85 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.13 WHIP (.307 BABIP). That season he won the Appalachian League pitcher of the year award. He started last season in Cedar Rapids starting 18 games, 101 IP, and had 93 strikeouts (8.29 K/9, 21.2 K%) and 11 walks (3.39 BB/9, 12.6 K-BB%) with 5.08 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.35 WHIP (.308 BABIP). He was promoted to the Miracle rotation in August where he started 5 games (31-2/3 IP), striking out 18 (5.1 K/9, 14.4 K%) and walking 2 (0.6 BB/9, 12.8 K-BB%) with a 2.56 ERA, 4.04 FIP and 0.98 WHIP (.250 BABIP). He continued onto the Puerto Rican Winter League where he pitched out of the bullpen in 13 games and 16-2/3 innings, walking 5 and striking out 13, holding opponents to a .206 opponent average and finishing with a 1.02 ERA.
     
    Pitching was not exactly new to Rodriguez who was also his High School's closer. He has 3 pitches: An above average fastball that sits at 91-93 and touches 95, and changeup and a slider/cutter that is average but improving. His command and control, feel for the game, durability and mount presence are also above average. He plays younger than his age, so there is room for improvement. The Twins like him as a starter, but the bullpen could potentially be his vehicle to the majors, because his staff would play much better there
     
    Likely 2017 path: starting the season in the Fort Myers rotation
     
     
    33. Michael Theofanopoulos (--)
    DOB: 8/5/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: L, Throws: L
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 30th round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Michael Theofanopoulos was drafted by the Twins in the 30th round of the 2014 from the University of California, Berkeley after his Senior season. The California native was a starter and sporadically played the outfield. As a hitter he finished with a .283/.361/.453 slash line but he only appeared in 27 games (53 AB). As a pitcher he appeared in 27 games, 23 of them starts, pitched 104 innings, struck out 77 (6.7 K/9) and walked 58 (5.0 BB/9) ending up with a 1.63 WHIP and 5.02 ERA, results that do not exactly cry "Draft me". Why did the Twins take a chance on Theofanopoulos, who was the roommate of their 24th round draft pick Golden Bears closer Trevor Hildenberger? Because he had an elite curveball that ranked among the top ones at the collegiate level, but his fastball was average and with lack of control. Theofanopoulos continued as a spot started in the GCL were he pitched in 11 games (5 starts) for 27-2/3 innings, striking out 30 (9.8 K/9, 22.4 K%), and walking 10 (3.3 BB/9, 14.9 K-BB%), with 4.23 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP (.363 BABIP), numbers much better than his collegiate. The next season he bypassed Elizabethton and moved to Cedar Rapids and after a single start in which he gave up 3 runs in 3 innings, to the bullpen. The 2015 season he pitched in 37 games (68-1/3 IP) struck out 74 (9.8 K/9, 25.2 K%) and walked 29 (3.8 BB/9, 15.3 K-BB%), finishing with a 3.82 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.42 WHIP (.350 BABIP) another step in the right direction for the still very raw lefty. Last season he started again in the Cedar Rapids pen pitching in 21 games (32-1/3 IP) with 45 K (12.5 K/9, 33.6 K%) and 16 BB (4.5 BB/9, 21.6 K-BB%) for and 1.67 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 1.05 WHIP (.236 BABIP). He was promoted to Fort Myers where he pitched in 23 games (33 IP) with 39 K (10.6 K/9, 27.7 K%), 18 BB (4.9 BB/9, 14.9 K-BB%), 2.73 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP (.282 BABIP.)
     
    Theofanopoulos was drafted as a project and has been proven a worthwhile one, improving every season. His fastball plays better in the pen and is up to 92 mph. His command and control have improved to average and continue to improve. In addition to his slow curve that is now a plus plus pitch, he added a faster slurve that flashes plus. Has also been getting a better feeling to pitching, trying to use his fastball to set up his out pitches (a tactic that will bear even more fruits as the fastball command improves) that was translated into a nice increase in strikeout. As his fastball command goes so will Theofanopoulos and there is a lot of hope here.
     
    Likely 2017 path: starting the season in the Fort Myers pen with a mid-season promotion to Chattanooga. Potential to start the season in Chattanooga depending on how many LHPs will be in the Twins' pen after Spring Training.
     
    32. Rainis Silva (21)
    DOB: 3/20/1996; Age: 20
    Positions: C
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2012
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Rainis Silva was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from Venezuela on July 9, 2012. The Barquisimeto, Venezuela native received an $175,000 bonus. He has been in my top prospect lists for the third time in a row and this is his worst ranking. Silva is an exceptional catcher with the skills to catch in the majors right now, with a great game calling capacity, excellent defense and strong arm, averaging 35-40% CS. His problem has been his bat, which in 4 seasons now has been consistently bad. His career slash line is .238/.295/.293 and his OPS variation (.539 in DSL in 2013, .636 in the GCL in 2014, .635 in Elizabethton and .572 in Cedar Rapids in 2015, and .551 in Cedar Rapids in 2016) were driven by his isoP that has varied from .024 to .097.
     
    Why is Rainis Silva even in the list, no matter how good his fielding is, since he has no power and he is hitting so lightly? First of all he is still 20 years old. Secondly, he actually hits LHP very well now and he improved. Here are his OPS against LHP by year and league: .539 in DSL in 2013, .521 in the GCL in 2014, .940 in Elizabethton and .889 in Cedar Rapids in 2015, and .754 in Cedar Rapids in 2016. So something clicked for him in 2015 and continued to work in 2016. Those OPS numbers are more than acceptable for a catcher, albeit in a platoon if necessary. The hope is that something will click for the 20 year old when facing RHPs as well and reach his potential as solid every day bat with elite defense in the C position, otherwise his ceiling would be that of a platoon player.
     
    Likely 2017 path: In the Catching rotation at Fort Myers.
     
    31.Jermaine Palacios (8)
    DOB: 7/19/1996; Age: 19
    Positions: SS/3B
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'0", Weight: 145 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2013
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
     
    Jermaine Palacios was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from Venezuela on July 7, 2013. In 2014, as a 17 year old he hit .270/.404/.399 in 225 PAs in the DSL (league average OPS: .671), as an 18 year old the first half of 2015 he hit .421/.472/.589 in 106 PAs in the GCL (league average OPS: .649) and .336/.345/.507 in 149 PAs as 2.5 year younger than the average Appalachian League Player (league average OPS: .731). In 2015 Palacios did not walk much (BB% 8.5 in GCL and 2.1 in Appy) and did not strike out much (10.4% & 13.8%.) He did make meaningful contact (.421 and .336 batting average.). Last season he was promoted to Cedar Rapids, started very cold (.471 OPS in April and .514 OPS in May) and started warming up (.613 OPS in June and .714 OPS in July) as the weather did, before his season ended on July 17 with a fractured left (glove) hand. His overall slash line was .222/.276/.287 and .306/.346/.367 for July. As discussed, he does not walk much or strikeout much, but for some reason in addition not to making much contact early in the season, his isoP dropped from .171 and .168 in his two 2015 stops to 0.065, and his BABIP took an about 200 point tumble to .253 from the .375 and .464 in his 2015 stops (it was .333 in 2014.)
     
    Palacios dropped a lot from his top-10 ranking a season ago and the reason is that I now believe that he can go either way and not only because of the fractured wrist. His BABIP needs to be in the .330-.350 area or better for him to be successful and will likely rebound, the jury is out to how much. It could potentially be weather related, since Cedar Rapids was likely the coldest place the Venezuelan has played in last Spring and that his bat bettered with the temperature. On the other hand, the isoP drop even in June and July is concerning, as is the wrist, question marks that Palacios can put to rest with a good season in 2017. One of the positive things that happened to Palacios last season is that his defense improved so much that it looks like he will stick at shortstop, instead of being a man without a position.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Starting Fort Myers shortstop, depending on the health of his wrist.
  3. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, and all segments in the series here.
     
    45. Pedro Garcia (--)
    DOB: 7/21/1995; Age: 21
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'2", Weight: 180 lbs
    Acquired: International free Agent Signing
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2016)
    ETA: 2020+
     
    The Twins signed Pedro Garcia as an international free agent from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on October 11, 2015. Garcia had his first professional season in the Dominican Summer Rookie League in 2016 and he was the ace of that team, starting 14 games (62-1/3 IP), striking out 69 (10.0 K/9, 28.2 K%), and walking 24 (3.5 BB/9, 18.4 K-BB%). He finished the season with a 5-1 record, 2.17 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.01 WHIP (.260 BABIP). Oponents had a very hard time making contanct (.181 OBA), especially when hiting from the right side (.155 OBA) Garcia has 3 pitches, a low to mid 90s fastball with good command, a workable changeup and an above average breaking ball. There is some wildness there (he also hit 5 batters and had 2 wild pitches) but he really improved in August (4 GS, 21 IP, 5 BB, 30 K, 4-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, .123 OBA) which suggests that there is huge room of improvement and he is already on his way. If that 12.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 of August as a starting pitcher is sign of what it is to come from Garcia, expect him to move really fast in the organization.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training in the United States, then GCL or Elizabethton, depending his adjustment and the Twins 2017 draft.
     
    44. Humberto Maldonado (--)
    DOB: 12/30/1997; Age: 19
    Positions: CF
    Bats: S, Throws: R
    Height: 6'3", Weight: 202 lbs
    Acquired: International free Agent Signing
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2016)
    ETA: 2020+
     
    The Twins signed Humberto Maldonado as an international free agent from San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic on November 15, 2015. Maldonado had a good first professional season, hitting .283/.363/.404 as the starting centerfielder of the DSL Twins, in a league dominated by pitchers. He flashed a bit of power (15 xBH / 47 H) and speed (stole 14 bases in 24 tries.) He is a switch hitter and equally well from both sides of the plate. His glove is adequate at CF at this point. He also played 17 games at LF and finished a game at 1B. He is strong athletic type (6'3 - 202 lbs) who can develop into a five tool talent and stick at centerfield. Think of a bit taller and stronger version of Joe Benson, as a prospect. Tons of potential, but he has a long ways to go, and Joe Benson did not go very far for the Twins.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training in the United States, then GCL, depending his adjustment and the Twins 2017 draft.
     
    43. Zach Granite (--)
    DOB: 9/17/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: CF
    Bats: L, Throws: L
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 175 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 14th round in 2013
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2016)
    ETA: 2017
     
    Zach Granite was drafted by the Twins in the 14th round of the 2013 draft from Seton Hall University. The Staten Island, NY native as a collegiate hit .299/.391/.367 with 91 BB and 75 K in 156 games (633 AB). He also stole 67/78 bases. After he was drafted in 2013 he started his pro career in Elizabethton where he hit .285/.362/.343 with 29 BB, 25 K, and 14/21 SB in 61 games (278 PA.) He was promoted to Cedar Rapids in 2014 but was a lost season for him going to the disabled list multiple times with leg ailments. He only managed to play 21 games (85 PA) and had decent success (.291/.321/.367, 4 BB, 8 K, 1/5 SB.) He started the 2015 season also in Cedar Rapids where he his the cover off the ball (.358/.463/.463, 12 BB, 6 K, 7/8 SB) and after 19 games was propoted to Fort Myers were he landed hard, having the worst season of his career: In 105 games (441 PA) he hit .249/.328/.304 with 41 BB and 63 K and was 21/33 in stolen bases. He was promoted to AA Chattanooga last season where he rebounded as a 23 year old, hitting .295/.347/.382 with 42 BB and 43 K, stealing 56 of 70 bases and had 8 triples in 127 games (584 PA.) His glove at centerfield is above average and his splits as LHB were equally good in AA against both LHP (.291/.345/.339) and RHP (.296/.348/.396) for the first time in his career, having reverse splits previously.
     
    There have been some comparisons to Ben Revere after his season in Chattanooga, but Granite is a very poor man's Ben Revere. Their tool sets are the same, hit for average, speed, and defense; however Revere's tools were much better at the same points of their career, not to mention that Revere was in the majors by age 22 where Granite just finished his age 24 season. Revere owned a career .325/.382/.402 minor league line and a .353 career BABIP in the minors where Granite's are .282/.349/.354 and .321 respectively. For someone whose game is to get on base and use his speed to move ahead that difference of 43 points on the battling average, 33 on the on-base percentage and 32 on the batting average of the balls in play are huge. In the modern game those skills are much more devalued than they were 2 decades ago. Granite's ceiling is more of an Eric Yelding vs. a Juan Pierre type of player, which is that of a AAAA of that might spend some time in a mediocre or worse MLB team's bench. The Twins added him on their 40 man roster this season and he might be afforded that opportunity. A potential trade piece to a National League team that might value his skills as a PR and a PH and a defensive glove at the end of a game more that the Twins.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Starting CF at Rochester and potentially part time with the Twins based on needs and injuries.
     
    42. Brandon Peterson (29)
    DOB: 9/23/1991; Age: 25
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 190 lbs
    Acquired: 13th Round Draft Pick 2013
    Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AA (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2017
     
    Brandon Peterson was drafted in the 13th round of the 2013 draft from Wichita State University. The Savage, MN native moved pretty fast in the Twins organization, reaching the high A Fort Myers Miracle squad in the second half of his second pro season, but ended up being caught in the numbers games, having to start each of the last two seasons at that level before being promoted to AA Chattanooga the second half of the last two seasons. His 2015 and 2016 seasons both split between A+ and AA were almost identical in peripheral numbers, but not in effectiveness. Here are his numbers in both organizations for the last 2 seasons:
     
    2015-A+: 21 G, 31-2/3 IP, 44 K (12.5 K/9, 36.1 K%), 17 BB (4.3 BB/9, 23.8 K-BB%), 0.85 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 0.92 WHIP (.222 BABIP)
    2016-A+: 22 G, 34 IP, 44 K (11.7 K/9, 33.3 K%), 14 BB (3.7 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%), 2.65 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 1.00 WHIP (.264 BABIP)
    2015-AA: 20 G, 29-1/3 IP, 33 K (10.1 K/9, 25.4 K%), 13 BB (4.0 BB/9, 15.4 K-BB%), 3.38 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.47 WHIP (.354 BABIP)
    2016-AA: 16 G, 26 IP, 31 K (10.7 K/9, 27.2 K%), 15 BB (5.2 BB/9, 14 K-BB%), 4.15 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.35 WHIP (.288 BABIP)
     
    Peterson has a fastball that sits at 95 mph and a slider that is a hair below a plus pitch. I think that the 2017 season is a make or break season for the 25 year old. After last season, I thought that it might be that he needs to adjust his approach to be successful against better competition rather than his stuff not playing against better competition, based on his results in AA compared to A+, especially with that high AA BABIP. Having pretty much the similar results between the two leagues in 2016, reduces my confidence in Peterson. While in A+ he looks like a borderline elite reliever, albeit with some wildness, in AA he looks like a mediocre reliever, and the Twins are full of young promising RHRP who are ahead of him both in the high minors and majors.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Sharing closer duties in AA, a promotion to AAA is probably depending his success and promotions to the MLB bullpen of AAA pitchers allowing him a path there.
     
    41. Brandon Lopez (SS)
    DOB: 9/9/1993; Age: 23
    Positions: SS
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 190 lbs
    Acquired: 10th Round Draft Pick 2016
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Brandon Lopez was drafted in the 10th round of the 2016 draft from the University of Miami as a senior. The Miramar, FL native Sports Administration major was the Hurricanes' starting SS all 4 seasons with the team and was previously drafted out of High School by the Blue Jays in the 34th round of the 2012 draft. He struggled somewhat his first two seasons as a collegiate with the bat, keeping the starting SS position because of his glove, he improved in his junior season and had a stellar senior season in 2016. He hit .376/.449/.469 with 23 BB and 34 K, stealing 5 out of 7 bases and having 14 doubles and 2 home runs, in 58 games (214 AB). He started his professional season in Elizabethton where he continue hitting well despite the transition to the wooden bat. He hit .337/.474/.413 with 21 BB and 19 K, was 4/4 in stolen bases and had 5 doubles and 1 HR in 27 games (92 AB). He was promoted to Cedar Rapids at the end of the season where he played 18 games (70 AB) and hit .286/.398/.329 with 11 BB and 16 K and 3 doubles. His BABIP numbers this season were .433 with Miami, .425 with Elizabethton and .370 with Cedar Rapids. His junior season, his BABIP was .357, which suggests that there is potential to sustain a BABIP at the .375 level as a professional player. Very limited power, but some potential and average speed, but above average pitch selectivity and glove at SS; a bit older for both of his leagues at 23, but much better than average performance. He hits Left and Right hand pitchers equally well.
     
    Lopez has the potential to be a good glove shortstop that can hit and take a walk. Because his performance requires that he maintains a high BABIP, which is not beyond Lopez, it is interesting to see how he will do against better pitching competition, especially at the A+ and AA levels. Potentially blocked by Nick Gordon at this point, if Gordon stays at SS, Lopez might be a valuable trade chip for the Twins down the road. But there is long way to go. Lopez in a pretty high ceiling but high risk player, thus the reason he missed a top 40 inclussion. This will change with sustained success, esp. keeping his BABIP high.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Starting SS at Cedar Rapids with a potential move to Miracle mid-season
  4. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, and all segments in the series here.
     
    50. Jordan Balazovic (--)
    DOB: 9/17/1998; Age: 18
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'4", Weight: 175 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 5th round in 2016
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2016)
    ETA: 2020+
     
    Jordan Balazovic was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2016 draft from St Martin Secondary School in Mississauga, ON, Canada. Balazovic was the highest ranked Prep from Canada in the 2016 draft and comes from a baseball family, with both his father and grandfather playing professionally, the latter in the Cleveland Indians organization as an outfielder in the 1950s. He has a great feel for the game. He commands his low 90s fastball well and his changeup is close to a plus pitch. He never threw a breaking ball until age 14 (that was 4 years ago) so his slider is a work in progress at this point, but it has been improving. Very good mechanics and projectible build. Has the potential to add velocity, but still very young. In his first professional season he pitched in 8 games in the GCL league making 8 starts for 32 innings, striking out 16 (4.5 K/9, 12 K%) and walking 5 (1.4 BB/9, 8.3 K-BB%). He had a 1.97 ERA, 3.54 FIP and 0.970 WHIP (.248 BABIP). Still very raw, but with a plus changeup, very good control and command of the fastball and feel for the game, there is a lot of potential for Balazovic.
     
    Likely 2017 path: In EST and then the Elizabethton rotation.
     
    49. Eduardo Del Rosario (--)
    DOB: 5/19/1995; Age: 21
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'0", Weight: 145 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2012
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
     
    Eduardo Del Rosario was signed by the Minnesota Twins as an internation free agent from the Dominican Republic on Dec. 21, 2012, as a 17 year old and started his professional career at the Dominican Summer League in 2013. There he has shown enough potential as a starter to make his stateside debut in Extended Spring Training and the Gulf Coast League the following season. Del Rosario adjusted to the life in the United States as a reliever in 2014 and returned to starting and the GCL in 2015. There he started 10 games (47-1/3 IP) striking out 50 (9.5 K/9, 27.8 K%), and walking 9 (1.7 BB/9, 22.8 K-BB%) and held opponents to a .217 average. He finished with a 1.90 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 0.95 WHIP (.310 BABIP). He also made an emergency start in Elizabethton and got shelled (4 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 3 ER.) He started 2016 in Extended Spring Training again, and was promoted to class A Cedar Rapids bypassing Elizabethon in June. In Cedar Rapids he started 16 games (83-1/3 IP) walking 32 (3.5 BB/9, 14 K-BB%) and striking out 81 (8.8 K/9, 23.3 K%), allowing a .244 opponent average without major slip deviations against lefties or righties. He had a 3.67 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP (.304 BABIP).
     
    He did show an improvement in effectiveness as the season went along (his ERA went from 6.58 in June to 2.83 in July and 1.69 in August,) however his biggest issue, wildness, was pretty constant. In addition to the fairly high 3.5 BB/9 walk rate, in those 83-1/3 innings he threw 12 wild pitches and hit 5 batters. Del Rosario has excellent command of this low 90s fastball and he pitches ahead of hitters and then tries to get them out by swinging at his secondary stuff (changeup and slider) outside the zone. He has been inducing massive strikeout numbers in bunches, including this appearance were he struck out 11 in 6 innings.. His problem is that his secondary staff is average and, on more than an occasion, hitters are ignoring it and sitting on the fastball or taking walks. Improving his secondary stuff and their command will get him a long way; regardless, it is refreshing seeing a Twins' pitcher not being afraid to pitch outside the zone.
     
    48. Taylor Clemensia (--)
    DOB: 2/20/1997; Age: 19
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: L, Throws: L
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 2015
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2016)
    ETA: 2020+
     
    Taylor Clemensia was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Netherlands in 2015. 2016 was his first professional season in the United States, as well as his first full season as a pitcher, playing 3 professional seasons in the Dutch League as an outfielder, and appearing only 5 games as a pitcher last season. He started the season in Extended Spring Training and then moved to the Gulf Coast League where he pitched in 11 games, 10 as a starter, for 43-2/3 innings, striking out 47 and walking 12. He also threw 8 wild pitches and hit 6 batters. He finished with a 2.47 ERA, FIP, and 1.214 WHIP (BABIP).
     
    Big fastball that is all over the place, above average curveball, good feel for the changeup and very consistent mechanics on a frame that suggests durability. The command and control issues are concerning, but Clemensia has only pitched a season and a half, so there is a lot of room for improvement.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training and then in the Elizabethton rotation, depending on the Twins' 2017 draft
     
    47. Nelson Molina (--)
    DOB: 4/30/1995; Age: 21
    Positions: IF
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 6'3", Weight: 175 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2013
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2020
     
    Nelson Molina was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 11th round of the 2013 MLB J Draft from Antonio Luchetti High School in Arecibo, PR. He has been developing slowly for the Twins, starting and repeating the GCL level his first two seasons, moving to Elizabethton in 2015 and to A level Cedar Rapids in 2016. He was drafted as a SS, but has played every infield and the corner outfield positions, concentrating recently at third base that will likely be his position of the future. Molina always had good plate discipline, but had a hard time making contact. However something clicked for him this season, hitting .300/.374/.381 overall (with only a 13.9 K% and 9.9 BB%) and .321/.383/.419 against RHPs. He is tall and lanky with limited power, but the potential to establish it as he grows. He has some speed, stealing 12 bases in Elizabethton, but this season he only had 6 attempts (and 5 SB.) He has been improving at third base, but made 9 errors in 67 games last season. At this point his bat is ahead of his glove, which will catch up as he is settles in one position. However, this might be a catch-22 for Molina, because positional versatility might be his key to the majors at some point and I suspect that will be the path that the Twins take for his development, unless his bat jumps yet another level and the power and speed numbers improve yo be projected as a potential starter in the hot corner. It will be interesting to see how he will respond in higher levels of competition, esp facing better off-speed pitches, and with more aggressive coaches at the base paths.
     
    Likely 2017 path: On the Fort Myers Miracle roster as a utility player
     
    46. Tyler Benninghoff (--)
    DOB: 9/17/1997; Age: 19
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'4", Weight: 180 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2016
    Professional Experience: -; Highest level: - (-)
    ETA: 2020+
     
    The Twins drafted Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round in the 2016 draft from Rockhurst High in Kansas City, MO. Benninghoff who was committed to Arkansas before the draft was a top 100 High School Prospect and projected to be drafted in the first 3 rounds, before his 2016 was derailed with Tommy John surgery and recovery. The Twins drafted him and signed him to an overslot value bonus ($600K vs $100K slot value) to entice him away from college. Benninghoff is a project in many respects, but before his injury he had a plus hammer curve and an above average fastball, seating at 90-92 mph and touching mid 90s. Projectible body and still growing, the health of his arm being the major concern. If healthy and if he develops a third pitch or improves his fastball, he could rise fast in the organization. 2017 will be an assessment season for him.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training
  5. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here and all segments in the series here.
     
    55. Cody Stashak (--)
    DOB: 6/4/1994; Age: 22
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'2", Weight: 169 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 13th round in 2015
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A+ (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Cody Stashak was drafted by the Twins in the 13th round of the 2015 draft from St. Johns University. The New Jersey native majored in Criminology and St. John's was his second College, transfering there in 2015 from Cumberland (NJ) County (Junior) College, where he was a two way player, starting pitcher and outfielder. His pitching record was 16-5 with a 2.92 ERA, including 7 complete games and 130 Ks in 129-1/3 innings. He was very good as a position player as well, hitting .359 with 23 2B, 7 3B, 7 HR, and 91 RBI in 104 games, helping his team reach number 1 in national NJCAA Division III ranking and second in the 2014 NJCAA Division III World Series. In St. Johns he made 16 starts (85-2/3 IP), struck out 69 (7.3 K/9) and walked 24 (2.9 BB/9), ending up with a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He begun his professional career at Elizabethton in 2015, where he started 10 games (44-2/3 IP), struck out 53 (10.7 K/9, 29% K%) and walked 11 (2.2 BB/9, 23 K-BB%) and finished with a 5-2 record, 3.43 ERA, 3.18 FIP, and 1.119 WHIP (.310 BABIP). He begun last season at EST and moved up to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he appeared in 18 games (17 starts and a 4 IP relief appearance) pitching 105-1/3 innings, striking out 80 (6.8 K/9, 18.8 K%) walking 30 (2.6 BB/9, 11.8 K-BB%), finishing with a 3.16 ERA, 3.39 WHIP and 1.139 WHIP (.279 BABIP). He was promoted to the A+ Florida State League Fort Myers in August where he pitched 3 games for 16-2/3 innings, with 10K and 3 BB, 0.54 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.960 WHIP (.260 BABIP), before going to the disable list with "shoulder discomfort" for the rest of the season.
     
    Shoulder injury whose severity is unknown aside, Stashak has been a very steady pitcher, pitching several innings (130-1/3 in 2015 between College and Rookie ball and 122 in 2016 before his injury) with good results. The strikeout to walk ratio, other that his short Elizabethton stint in 2015, is a tad lower than optimal, allowing more contact than necessary, which combined with the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher (about 2 fly outs per ground out) make one worry whether Stashak will have success in higher levels of professional ball. He throws an above average 88-92 mph fastball that he commands well complements with an above average curveball. He has been also working on a changeup and a slider/cutter. Stashak is a player who can move though a system fast if a couple of his pitches develop to a plus level and his control improve. As mentioned previously the shoulder is a concern.
     
    Likely 2017 Path: Starting the season with Fort Myers Miracle, pending his shoulder health.
     
    54. Tyler Wells (--)
    DOB: 8/26/1994; Age: 22
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'8", Weight: 265 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 15th round in 2016
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2016)
    ETA: 2020
     
    Tyler Wells was drafted by the Twins in the 15th round of the 2016 draft from California State San Bernandino. The California native was a starter there for 3 seasons, pitching in 38 games (35 starts) for a total of 204 innings, striking out 191 (8.4 K/9), walking 90 (4.0 K/9), with a 3.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His last (junior) season he had better results (2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 games, 92 IP) while his peripherals remained pretty much constant (8.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9) which indicates that he got a better feel in pitching. He continued as a pro to Elizabethton where he started 10 games (47-1/3 IP), striking out 59 (11.2 K/9, 29.2 K%) and walking 17 (3.2 BB/9, 20.8% K-BB%) finishing with a 3.23 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.20 WHIP (.328 BABIP). In total 2016 has been a good year for Wells, starting 25 games for 149-1/3 IP between college and rookie league. Wells is a very durable starter and has the physique of a football lineman. As a high school senior he was listed at 6'7" and 212 lbs. At San Bernandino he grew an inch and filled up his frame to 265 lbs, without being overweight.
     
    As a collegiate his strikeouts were in bursts. He had games where his strike outs were in double digits and games where there were few. His results in Elizabethton show a gleam of hope that he can consistently keep his strikeout high by getting a better feel for his stuff from start to start. His mechanics are very good and consistent for his size and there is a lot of potential for improvement of his pitches, which in combination with his durability, makes Wells an interesting prospect
     
    Likely 2017 Path: Starting the season with Cedar Rapids
     
    53. Zander Wiel (--)
    DOB: 1/11/1994; Age: 24
    Positions: 1B
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'3", Weight: 232 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 12th round in 2015
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Zander Wiel was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2015 draft from Vanderbilt University. The Tennessee native had an excellent last season there in 2015 highlighted by a .316/.406/.571 slash line and 15 HR in 275 AB (18.3 AB/HR). Making the transition to a wooden bat is sometimes tricky for power hitters, but Wiel hit .265/.323/.494 with 5 HR in 83 AB (16.6 AB/HR) at the Cape Code League the previous summer, so it seems that his power would translate in the professional level. He played 16 games (36 AB) in Elizabethton last season and his first small sample of professional baseball was not stellar (.194/.333/.333 ; 1 HR and missed most of the season with an injured wrist due to a HBP) but inconclusive. He played the full 2016 season in A League Cedar Rapids. He played for 128 games (501) and hit .259/.336/.459 with 19 HRs (26.4 AB/HR.) He started 123 of those games at 1B where he made 17 errors.
     
    Wiel has power which is his best tool, but is not quite elite like Kennys Vargas (14.0 AB/HR at the same level,) Miguel Sano (16.3 AB/HR at the same level), or Adam Brett Walker (18.8 AB/HR at the same level.) His fielding is a work in process. The critical component for Wiel will be the amount of progress he makes making contact. His batting average (.259) is pretty similar to what he had at the Cape Cod league (.265), which means that there might still be an adjustment period to the wooden bat. His strikeouts (22%) are not bad for a power hitter and they were better than his highly regarded (but 3 years younger) teammate Travis Blackenhorn's (27.5%.) There is a lot of potential here, but improvements in power, contact, and fielding need to be made for already 24-year old Wiel to realize it.
     
    Likely 2017 Path: Opening day first baseman with Fort Myers.
     
    52. Andrew Vasquez (--)
    DOB: 9/14/1994; Age: 23
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: S, Throws: L
    Height: 6'5", Weight: 210 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 32nd round in 2015
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
     
    Andrew Vasquez was drafted by the Twins in the 32nd round of the 2015 draft from Westmont College where he transferred as a senior from University of California Santa Barbara where he pitched his first 3 collegiate seasons. The California native was Highly recruited out of High School after finishing 5-1 with 1.54 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 52-1/3 IP and being a switch hitting first baseman. His freshman season he started 15 games (88-2/3 IP) had 106 strikeouts (10.6 K/9) and 63 BB (6.4 BB/9) with a 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The next 2 seasons the wheels fell off and his ERA ballooned to mid 4s, before dropping to 3.06 after his transfer. The problem? Andrew Vasquez is an unusual pitcher. One has to think of him as a knuckleballer, but unlike a knuckleballer, Vasquez bread and butter pitch is his curveball that he throws most of the time. And it is a beautiful slow curveball that sits at the high 60s low 70s, which most of the time is a plus plus pitch that misses bats and induces very weak contact when it does. He occasionally throws a mid 80s fastball that was just a step above a playground pitch at college but improving. Missing bats is what Vasquez does, but when he misses the plate with his curveball and the hitters are sitting on his fastball, the results have been disastrous. All of his collegiate career he was given more walks than hits. His strikeout numbers (13.1 K/9) and hits (4.8 hits per 9 innings) have been stellar his senior year, but walks were the problem (5.7 BB/9). In his first pro-season with the Twins, Vasquez transitioned to the pen in the Gulf Coast League where the trent continued. He pitched 12-1/3 innings in 12 games, striking out 22 (16.1 K/9) allowing 10 hits (7.3 H/9) but walking 15 (11 BB/9). He started 2016 in extended spring training and looks like something clicked for Vasquez. He moved to Elizabethton for 4 games, pitched 10 innings striking out 15 (13.5 K/9, 38.5 K%) allowing 6 hits (5.4 H/9) and walking only 4 hitters (3.6 BB/9, 28.2 K-BB%) ending up with an 0.90 ERA, 2.46 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP (.333 BABIP.) He was promoted to Cedar Rapids where the success continued: He came of the pen in 13 games for 28-1/3 innings, with 36 K (11.4 K/9, 31.6% K%), 12 BB (3.8 BB/9, 21.1 K-BB%) and 13 H (4.1 H/9) translating into a 1.59 ERA, 2.63 FIP and 0.88 WHIP (.210 BABIP).
     
    It has to be mentioned that Vasquez has not allowed a home run as a pro player. As mentioned earlier, even though a secondary pitch, his fastball has improved this season and he has been also toying with a slurve that sits at high 70s to low 80s. He is lethal against LHBs. In Cedar Rapids he faced 36 lefties allowing 3 hits and 3 walks and had 18K. He is a very interesting prospect who will live and die with the control and command of his curveball and if that holds up in higher levels, he might be a fast riser. The benefit he has as a reliever that he did not have as a starter is that he can reduce his exposure when his command and control is not there.
     
    Likely 2017 Path: In the Fort Myers bullpen
     
    51. Jason Wheeler (--)
    DOB: 10/27/1990; Age: 26
    Positions: LHP
    Bats: l, Throws: L
    Height: 6'6", Weight: 255 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 8th round in 2011
    Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2014, 2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2017
     
    Jason Wheeler was drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011 from Loyola Marymount University. The California native has been in the Twins system since 2012, starting his professional career with the A Midwest League Beloit Snappers, starting from 25-28 games every seasons and pitching from 137-2/3 to 169-1/3 innings every season. Wheeler was placed on the Twins' 40 man roster after the 2014 season to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, but was removed after the 2015 season. He has been the poster boy of durability and consistency and has also suffered by the Twins' practice to block prospects at the high levels by singing aging veterans with little hope to contribute to the Twins to minor league contracts, blocking rising prospects. Due to this, he started both the last seasons in AA and moved to AAA in the season and was bypassed by the likes of Andrew Albers in pitching for the Twins. In 2016 Wheeler started 4 games in AA Chattanooga and 24 in AAA Rochester. He pitched 169-1/3 innings striking out 135 (7.3 K/9, 19.1 K% ) and walked 40 (2.1 BB/9, 12.9 K-BB%) with a 3.30 ERA, 3.41 FIP and 1.163 WHIP (.283 BABIP).
     
    Wheeler is a major league ready pitcher who is not flashy, entering his prime at 26, but can contribute at the end of a rotation. He has a 88-90 mph fastball that he commands very well and generates soft contact. He is also throwing an above average cutter/slider and change up. He is about equally effective against lefties and righties and the last time he came out of a bullpen was as a college sophomore in 2010, so his future as a potential reliever is unknown.
     
    Likely 2017 Path: Starting for Rochester, potential September or injury call up for the Twins
  6. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    Without further ado, here is the 2017 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2016 list in parenthesis:
     
    60. Mike Cederoth (--)
    DOB: 11/25/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Mike Cederoth was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft from San Diego State University. The San Diego native started in his first years at SDSU and he was their closer his last year, dropping his ERA to about half (2.29 vs 4.26) and saving 20 games. In 2012 Cederoth was hit on the face by a comebacker, suffered a fractured jaw and had to have it wired shut for seven weeks. He was one of several College closers that the Twins have drafted that season with the intent to convert to starters but failed. Cederoth was ranked as the Twins' 23rd best prospect in my 2015 off-season list, after an unfortunate season in Elizabethton, and disappeared from my rankings in 2016, after a more unfortunate season in Cedar Rapids, both as a starter. This season the Twins converted him back to a reliever and he repeated the A level Cedar Rapids assignment with promising results: He appeared in 30 games, pitched 47-2/3 innings, striking out 61 (11.5 K/9, 29.2% K%), walking 33 (6.23 BB/9, 13.4% K%-BB%) for a 1.43 WHIP (.288 BABIP, 88.3% LOB%), 2.45 ERA and 3.87 FIP. His strikeout rate against RHBs was phenomenal (he faced 86 RHBs total and struck out 37). A major difference from his previous seasons was that his first two seasons as a starter he had averaged 2 ground ball outs to all other outs where last season the ration was 0.84, which indicates a major difference in his approach.
     
    Even out of college Cederoth had two ready pitches: a plus plus fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches triple digits and a plus slider. He has been playing with a curveball and changeup in the minors that are workable, but not above average. His curveball has had flashes of above average. His problem has always been his delivery and mechanics and this has translated into more than optimal walks, which is his barrier to excellence and the one thing that he needs to overcome to become a major league pitcher, because his fastball and slider are major league ready. Full transition to the bullpen and a program geared towards improving his mechanics may do wonders for Cederoth, as the abandonment of his two lesser pitches. But he has a long way to go.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the A+ Fort Myers bullpen and depending on his success will move to AA Chattanooga.
     
    59. Aaron Whitefield (--)
    DOB: 9/2/1996; Age: 20
    Positions: IF/OF
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'4", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent from Australia
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2020
     
    Aaron Whitefield was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Australia. 2016 was his second professional season (he played 7 games in the GCL in 2015) and it highlighted Whitefield's versatility and steady hitting. He played 51 games in the Rookie Gulf Coast League, starting 17 at CF, 8 at RF, 2 at LF, 5 at 3B and 18 at 1B. Outfield is probably his best position, but at 6'4" and growing, having the versatility to play first base might help his career. He is an excellent fielder thoughout. He also played shortstop in the Australian Baseball League. He hit .298/.370/.366 with 2 HR, 7 2B, in 217 PA. Struck out 47 times and walked 19, stole 31 bases and was caught 9 times. In addition to the 19 BBs, he had 48 singles, which means he attempted to steal 40 of the 67 times he reached first base, which is a very high rate. His bat is advanced for someone with only few years of playing baseball (Whitefield is a converted softball player) and improving. As most converted softball players, he is hitting RHP better that LHP. His slash line against RHP was .325/.366/.423 vs .250/.378/.265 against LHP. This off-season Whitefield is playing for his hometown Brisbane in the Australian League and hitting .342/.387/.541 (.349/.407/.566 against RHPs) with 4 HRs and 12/14 SB in 118 PA in 28 games. The competition in the ABL is much higher than that at the GCL, which is very encouraging.
     
    Whitefield is still very raw, but has good instincts both with the glove and the bat. The bat will continue to improve the more he gets adjusted to baseball from softball, and right now it is much ahead of his peers. He is one of the players who might make considerable jumps in prospect lists, since he has all the makings of a five-tool player if his power improves. Definitely a player to follow.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Based on his ABL progress, I am bullish on Whitefield. I think that he will start the season in Cedar Rapids and skip Elizabethton
     
     
    58. Tanner English (--)
    DOB: 3/11/1993; Age: 23
    Positions: CF
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5'10", Weight: 160 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AAA (2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Tanner English was drafted by the Twins in the 11th round of the 2014 draft from the University of South Carolina. The Pittsburgh, PA, native is one of the purest centerfielders in the Twins' system with a plus glove. He played 7 games in AAA last season out of need, however he spent most of the season in A+ Florida State League Fort Myers with the Miracle, and about three months of it in the disabled list because of a concussion. English's career minor league numbers (.270/.372/.425, 13 HR, 31 2B, 14 3B, 54/62 SB in 756 PA in 177 games) added to a plus glove would make one think that he should be ranked maybe in the top 30 of the organization, but his problem has been staying on the field. He plays the game relentlessly, since his days with the South Carolina Gamecocks, and gets hurt. A lot. Those 177 professional games came in three seasons. In addition his hit tool was challenged this season This season in 33 games with the A+ Miracle, English hit .235/.348/.429 and struck out 47 times in 142 PAs (33.1%). He played in the Arizona Fall League for 22 games, where he hit .239/.333/.338 with 25 K in 81 PAs (30.9%). Those strikeout rates, in addition to problems with making contact demonstrated by the .230s batting average against better pitching this season question his potential as a major leaguer.
     
    His numbers (.417/.548/.750, 7 BB, 7K) in a super small sample of 31 PAs against LHP this season at Fort Myers, offer a glimmer of hope. However, returning from a concussion is not an easy accomplishment and English will have an uphill battle.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in AA Chattanooga
     
     
    57. Williams Ramirez (--)
    DOB: 8/8/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Williams Ramirez was signed as a 20 year old from the Dominican Republic on December of 2012 and spend his first two professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League, coming stateside in the 2015 season. He is a late bloomer. In his first season stateside he pitched for the GCL Twins in 11 games (9 starts) for 47-1/3 innings, walking 19 and striking out 54 (29.2%). He had a miniscule 1.14 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.908 WHIP (.211 BABIP). Last season he jumped two levels to the A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he moved permanently to the pen and had a similarly good season: 29 games, 55 innings, walking 34 and striking out 66 (29.7%). 2.62 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.055 WHIP (.197 BABIP). His BABIP is bothersome as are his bases on balls. However the reason for walking is not mechanics, but inconsistency of his secondary pitches. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 96, a curve ball that flashes plus on occasion, but is out of control and a below average change up. He participated in the instructional league this off-season.
     
    Ramirez is lethal against RHBs, allowing them to hit only .111 and striking out 39 of the 87 he faced, which may indicate that if he attends to his control issues he could potentially be a valuable arm out a pen. Still at 24, he will be a bit older than most leagues he pitches.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in A+ Fort Myers and maybe move up to Chattanooga depending on results and need.
     
     
    56. Colton Davis (--)
    DOB: 1/5/1994; Age: 23
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 25th round in 2016
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Colton Davis was drafted by the Twins in the 25th round of last July's draft as a Senior from Western Carolina University. The Commerce, GA native was assigned to Rookie Appalachian League Elizabethton Twins and he pitched in 13 games before moving to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids Kernels for 2 games in September because of need. Davis was an all conference Academic Criminology major and his career numbers (90 games, 9 starts, 146-1/3 IP, 169 H, 98 BB, 177 K, .291 OBA, 33 WP, 12 HBP, 5.84 ERA, 1.907 WHIP) from far suggest that the likelihood to get a pro contract was small, however looking closely there is potential: In his senior 2016 season Davis pitched in 31 games (1 start) for 67-1/3 innings he stuck out 89 batters of whom 34 looking and he had a 7 strikout relief appearance. The previous summer in the New England Collegiate League Davis appeared in 6 games (9-2/3 IP) he had 18 strikeouts (16.8 K/9) and 4 walks (3.7 BB/9) with a 0.93 ERA and 0.930 WHIP. Thus when his walks were controlled, there was a potential for good things. And good things happened to him this season. In 13 games for Elizabethton (19-1/4 IP) he struck out 23 (10.71 K/9, 30.7% K%) walked 8 (3.72 BB/9, 20.0 K-BB%) had a 3.26 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 0.98 WHIP (.262 BABIP) as the Twins' closer.
     
    Consistency and secondary pitches are the name of the game for Davis. He has a low 90s fastball with terrific movement that he can spot around the plate; however his secondary staff leave a lot to be desired. There is a lot of potential there, but also a lot of work to come close to realizing it.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen.
  7. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    The Twins have the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft this week. Previously, I discussed the potential Twins' liabilities in the draft. Now that all major league 40-man rosters are settled in as far as who is unprotected, I will be listing five players who should be interesting targets for the Twins.
     
    A bit of a reminder regarding how the draft works: A team can select any unprotected player of any other team and pay $100,000 (increased from $50K in the new CBA). The team has to keep the player on the 25-man roster (or the MLB Disabled List, which means that the player will burn an option and accrue MLB service.) If not, the team will offer the player back to his original team for half the cost ($50,000) or work a trade with that team. And the draft can go on ad infinitum, so the Twins, if they open another spot on their 40-man roster that currently stands at 39, can pick first on the second round and so on. The types of players who make sense to select are players who will be the last one on the best or out of the bullpen. With the re-singing of Escobar and the glut of the Twins' outfields, as well as the lack of impact arms in the organization, pitching is the way to go.
     
    Here are five potential targets for the Twins:
     
    LHP Ismael Guillon (Cincinati Reds). Born on 2/13/1992 in Valencia, Venezuela.
     
    Despite his 24 years, the highest competition level Guillon faced was at the Advanced A Florida State League. He missed his first professional season recuperating from Tommy John surgery, and after two successful seasons at the Arizona (Rookie) and Pioneer (advanced Rookie) Leagues, the Reds added him on their 40-man roster to protect him from the 2012,2013, and 2014 rule 5 drafts. He was taken off that roster before the 2015 season that he missed because of a torn lat muscle and he was not re-added after his 2016 campaign. In 2016 he returned to Advanced A, a level he reached in 2014, and he was very successful: He appeared in 32 games, making 13 starts, for a total of 99.3 innings. He struck out 116 (11.6 K/9) and walked 39 (3.76 BB/9). He allowed 25 ERs (2.41 ERA) and finished the season with a 3.57 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. He held all opponents to a .162 batting average, and lefties to a .133 average (.133/.233/.222 slash.)
     
    Control of his fastball has been his problem and he tends to walk bit more than ideal, but it has been improving, as have been his strikeouts. His fastball as a starter varied from 90-93 mph and as a reliever it reached 95-96 mph. However, his best pitch is his change up that is a devastating plus plus pitch. It velocity is up to 15 mph less than his fastball, which is an incredible drop, and he is not tipping it. He is also throwing an average curveball at this point. Lefthanders with a 95+ mph fastball (that needs some work) and a devastating changeup do not grow on trees and he is a good bet for an arm out of the pen starting facing primarily lefties. He potentially projects as a top of the rotation starter, if he improves his command of the fastball and the quality of his breaking ball.
     
    I could have really stopped here, as far as the potential Twins targets go. Guillon is of that quality. Here are the rest:
     
    RHP Pedro Payano (Rangers) . Born on September 27, 1994 in New York, NY, but his family return to the Dominican and was signed as an international free agent.
     
    The New Twins' Front office has a good knowledge of the Indians' and Rangers' systems and will look there for potential bargains, and the 22 Payano might be the Rangers' best bargain. Last season he played for the Hickory Crawdads of the South Atlantic (A) League. He appeared in 15 games, making 13 starts, for a total of 73.6 innings. He struck out 82 (10.2 K/9) and walked 29 (3.54 BB/9). He allowed 17 ERs (2.08 ERA) and finished the season with a 2.91 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. He held all opponents to a .219 batting average, and righties to a .231 average. He spent the second part of the season in the DL with an undisclosed injury.
     
    Payano has three above average pitches: a 92-93 mph fastball, a low 80s change up, and a hammer curve that is borderline plus. He has a great feel for the game and excellent mechanics, allowing him to keep his fastball velocity deep in games and also has the ability to throw any pitch at any count. There were some undisclosed issues that kept him for his first 3 seasons in the Dominican Summer League, but it seems that he is over them and also Twins GM Thad Levine should be aware of them. Mid to top of the rotation potential, another solid Rule 5 draft pick.
     
    RHP Yimmi Brasoban (Padres) Born on June 22, 1994 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic.
     
    The 22 year old started 2016 with the Lake Elsinore Storm of the Advanced A California league and after 10 games he was promoted to San Antonio Missions of the AA Texas League. He appeared as a reliever in 29 AA games, for a total of 35.6 innings. He struck out 35 (8.83 K/9) and walked 16 (4.04 BB/9). He allowed 12 ERs (3.03 ERA) and finished the season with a 3.10 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. He held all opponents to a .216 batting average, and righties to a .190 average.
     
    Unlike Payano and Guillon, Brasoban is a pure reliever with two plus pitches and inconsistent command and control. His FB sits at 96-98 mph and peaks higher and he supplements it with a hard breaking slider. He kept righties to a .190/.292/.238 and has been successful in AA, so he is pretty intriguing. His ceiling is late inning reliever.
     
    LHP Corey Littrell (Cardinals) Born on March 21, 1992 in Louisville, KY
     
    The 24 year old played in both AA and AAA in 2016, and he made the transition from a starter to a reliever. In both leagues he appeared as a reliever in 53 AA games, making 1 start, for a total of 67 innings. He struck out 63 (8.23 K/9) and walked 30 (4.34 BB/9). He allowed 29 ERs (3.90 ERA) and finished the season with a 4.30 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. He held all opponents to a .261 batting average. These numbers are a bit inflated by his PCL performance, but his AA Texas League numbers were considerable better (1.72 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 0.570 WHIP, 8.04 K/9, 0.57 BB/9, .145 OBA).
     
    Littrell was on his first year of transition to the pen and in a pitcher unfriendly league that destroyed his command. Polished pitcher with a great pickoff move. Above average to plus fastball that sits and 91-93 but can peak to mid-nineties, has an additional avobe average circle change in the low 80s, a slow curve that is borderline plus and a cutter that is work in progress. Fourth starter potential or late inning reliever ceiling.
     
    LHP Angel Perdomo (Blue Jays) Born on May 7, 1994 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
     
    The 22 year old played last season with the Full season A Lansing Lugnuts of the Midwest League, so the Twins have had the opportunity to face him. He appeared in 27 AA games, 25 starts, for a total of 127 innings. He struck out 156 (11.6 K/9) and walked 54 (3.83 BB/9). He allowed 45 ERs (3.19 ERA) and finished the season with a 2.89 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. He held all opponents to a .219 batting average, and lefties to a .193 average.
     
    Perdomo is a very intriguing pick because he is projectible (he is 6'6" and 200 lbs), later bloomer (if you can say that for a 22 year old) and took a big step forward with his fastball last season. Command and control is still an issue, but when it gets close to the zone, his fastball, that climbed up to 96-97 from 92-94 this season, is a hard ball for hitter to hit. He has a slider that is above average and an change up that is a work in progress. A lot of his projection depends on the development of secondary pitchers but lefties who throw 97 mph fastballs as starters do not grow on trees. Top of the rotation potential if he develops both of the secondary offering to a plus level, but definitely late inning material. A well worthy pick.
     
    Two more names to know are 21 year old RHP Nabil Crismatt of the Mets' organization. Really high potential, 3 good pitches, but Rookie level only make him much more of a risky pick. RHP Mike Hauschild of the Astros' organization is a pitch to contact ground ball machine with five pitches: fastball, sinker, slider, change and splitter. He is 26 and played in the PCL the last 2 seasons with some success and a career 61.6 % groundball inducing average. Could he be the next Derek Lowe? Time will tell.
  8. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    A lot of Twins fans have not realized it, after a season with the worst record losses, since the franchise moved to Minnesota, 103, but this week signified too major events for the Twins:

    The start of the 2016-2017 off-season that finds them tied in the first place in the AL Central with a .500 record
    The start of a brand new baseball leadership in the faces of Derek Falvey as the first ever Twins' Chief Baseball Officer and Thad Levine as the Twins Senior VP and General Manager. And, even more importantly, this is the first time that the Twins have hired their baseball leadership from outside the organization, since 1986 when Andy MacPhail, replaced (for practical purposes) Calvin Griffith, as the Twins baseball leader.

    Hope runs high and I want to wish the new Twins' leadership good luck, and offer a single piece of advise:
     
    Please do not assume, because the bar is so low and that hope runs high, that the Twins' fan base does not have high expectations. As a matter of fact, some of us are setting the bar not at the level of who you are replacing, but at the level of what happened the first time new blood infused the franchise. And that is a very high bar, set at the level of 2 World Championships in 4 seasons.
     
    What would be your one piece advise to the new Twins' baseball leaders, along with your well wishes?
  9. Thrylos
    After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around. I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild. And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.
     
    Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word. Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups: a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between. The 27 year olds:
     
    The listing is alphabetical with birthdays
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (60-day DL)
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
     
    These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:
     
    Young enough:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
     
    Too old:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Phil Hughes 6/24/86
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/83
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
    In between:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
     
    Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
    Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value. Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay. Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.
     
    New Keeper list (with positions) :
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.
     
    Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985 - no value
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986 - no value
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988 - no value
     
    The ones who do not have value, should go. Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration. The list trims to:
     
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
     
    The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers. The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks. The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin
     
    The arbitration, and team control eligible players:
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
     
    The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value. If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go. So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,) all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.
     
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
     
    The Twins are stuck with these 4 players. These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team. The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season. Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.
     
    So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns. This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system. One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position. Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers. Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.
     
    In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.
  10. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild. This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster. As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster. This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization. I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training. If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.
     
    Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up. Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.
     
    Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:
     
    Catchers:
     
    Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
    Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
    Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352
     
    Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017. Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him. I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected. Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up. His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might. Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno? I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call. It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.
     
    Additions: Garver
     
    Infielders:
     
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
    Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
    Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309
    Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career: .262/.324/.321
     
    Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct. I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected, I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future. As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered. The last player in this list is a wild card. Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies. Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him. Got to protect him for at least another year.
     
    Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
    Subtractions: Escobar
     
    Outfielders:
     
    Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career: .245/.316/.368
    JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
    Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
    Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)
     
    I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well. This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization. Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft. Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away. This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka. They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster. Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.
     
    Additions: Granite, Palka
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:
     
    Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
    LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459
     
    Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.
     
    Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers:
     
    Starters:
     
    Ryan Eades ®, 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Felix Jorge.® 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career: 3.17 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
    Aaron Slegers, ® 9/4/1992, AA, 2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career: 3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
    Fernando Romero, ® 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career: 2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014: 2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
    Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
     
    Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors. Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add. Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring. They are both no-brainer additions. Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row. Is he back? Only the Twins know. I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster. I won't. Slegers is an intriguing possibility: He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame. Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it? In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection? I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season. This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers. Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart. This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that. But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.
     
    Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler
     
    Relievers:
     
    Luke Bard ® 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career: 3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
    DJ Baxendale ®, 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
    Omar Bencomo ® 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career: 3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career: 4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Alan Busenitz ® 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career: 3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
    C.K. Irby, ®, 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career: 3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
    Zack Jones ®, 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career: 2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
    Brandon Peterson, ®, 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career: 2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Brian Gilbert, ®, 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
    Williams Ramirez, ®, 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career: 1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
    Todd Van Steensel ®, 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career: 3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
     
    This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty. Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected. The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration. C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level. The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017. Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery. I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization. Alan Busenitz is an interesting case. He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins. Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him. I wouldn't. However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga excelled. This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season: Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson. Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three. I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready. But it is a risk.
     
    Additions: Baxendale, Jones.
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:
     
    Starters:
     
    Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career: 2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
    Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career: 3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
    Kohl Stewart ®, 10/7/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career: 2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
     
    Relievers:
     
    Nick Burdi ®, 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
    Trevor Hildenberger ®, 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career: 1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
    Jake Reed ®, 9/29/1992, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career: 3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+, 2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career: 3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
     
    As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.
     
    This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.) Here is the modified roster:
     
    DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 ©
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
    Felix Jorge 1/2/1994 (RHSP)
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
    Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)
     
     
    Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.
  11. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----The Twins acquired LHP Adalberto Mejia, from the San Fransisco Giants, in exchange for Eduardo Núñez. Núñez came to the Twins from the Yankees for Miguel Sulbaran who came to the Twins from the Dodgers for Drew Butura who came from the Mets for Louis Castillo who came from the Marlins for RHPs Scott Tyler the Twins 2001 2nd round draft pick and Travis Bowyer the Twins 1999 20th round draft pick.
     
    Mejia was signed as international free agent from the Dominican Republic by the Giants in 2011. Mejia last played for the Giants in AAA Sacramento River Cats (Pacific Coast League,) and was invited to their 2016 MLB camp for his first time. He is on the Twins' 40-man roster, and likely September callup.
     
    Mejia was born on 6/20/1993 in Bonao, Dominican Republic and was a late bloomer signing by the Giants as an eighteen year old. That season in the Dominican Summer League he impressed, starting 13 games for 76 innings with 71 K (8.4 K/9) and only 8 BB, with a 0.868 WHIP, 1.42 ERA and 1.75 FIP. This was enough for him to skip the Giants' US-based Rookie leagues, jumping right on full season A in 2012, playing for the Augusta GreenJackets of the Southern Atlantic League. He participated in 30 games, among them 14 starts. His final numbers for that season were: 106.7 IP with 79 K (6.7 K/9) 21 BB (1.8 BB/9), with a 1.341 WHIP, 3.97 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He started the season in the pen, with limited success and moved into the rotation in June, where he found success, finishing the season with a 6-3 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, post All Star break.
     
    The next season he moved up to the San Jose Giants of the High A California League. He started 16 games (87 IP) with 89 K (9.2 K/9) and 23 BB (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.31 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 1.126 WHIP. He miss 48 games that season in May and June with shoulder issues, but came back okay. He was called to AAA Fresno to start a single game (5 IP, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) and participated in the Arizona Fall League playing in 7 games, 3 as a starter for 8.47 ERA, 1.529 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 17 innings. In 2014 he moved up to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels (Eastern League) where he started 21 games and relieved in one, pitching 108 innings with 82 K (6.8 K/9) and 31 BB (2.6 BB/9), for a 1.389 WHIP, 4.67 ERA and 3.78 FIP. He went to the DL three times for 6 days with a leg bruise after a ball hit him in April and for 8- and 12-days in July with finger blisters. His weight that season went up to 240 lbs (he is 6'3") and needed to be reduced. Unfortunately he took a banned weight loss supplement that contained stimulants and tested positive, receiving a 50 day suspension, very much like current Twins' DH/1B Kennys Vargas.
     
    He repeated AA in 2015 after he served his suspension. He appeared in 12 games (9 GS), pitching 51.3 innings with 38 K (6.7 K/9) and 18 BB (3.2 BB/9), for a 1.091 WHIP, 2.45 ERA and 3.41 FIP. Despite the nice performance, he needed innings so he returned to the AFL (7 GS, 31 IP , 1.258 WHIP, 3.48 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 4.1 K/BB) and also appeared in the Dominican Winter League (playing for the Gigantes, coinsidentally: 5 GS, 18.3 IP , 1.091 WHIP, 3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB). After he was invited to his first MLB spring training as part of the Giants' 40-man roster, he was caught in the numbers games and started against at AA Richmond where he excelled after he trimmed down this season (11 GS, 65 IP , 0.985 WHIP, 1.94 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB) forcing his promotion to AAA in his age 23 season (he was 22 at the time.) His numbers (7 GS, 40.7 IP , 1.303 WHIP, 4.20 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 K/BB) are fairly impressive, especially for the Pacific Coast League.
     
    He has an above average to borderline plus fastball that has increased in velocity this season, sitting at 92-94 and touching 95 as a starter. Average to above average command and improving and the pitch is projecting to be plus pitch in the near future. Natural cutting action on the pitch. His slider is his best pitch. Siting at 83-84 mph and up to 86. Nice biting motion, great command and above average control. This is a pitch that he throws anywhere on the count, pretty much like current Twins' starter Tyler Duffey does with his curve ball. He also throws a changeup that is an average to above average pitch that can improve. Nice fluid mechanics.
     
    Weight is a consideration for him, and it currently is under control, listed at 195 lbs. His ceiling is that of a number 3 starter, but he has a high floor. His floor is of a 8th inning reliever. He held lefties to a .216/.273/.275 slash line and had 11.3 K/9 against them, which is pretty impressive for the PCL.
     
    Mejia was listed as the 5th best Giants' prospect by Baseball America and 7th best by MLB.com. He would be among the top 10 in my Twins' list if I had to do this list now, but likely he will be called up in September and that will disqualify him. Very good return for the Twins.
     

  12. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----------
    As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
     
    How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
     
    Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
     

     
    Long story short:
     
    During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
     
    Few notes:

    This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
    If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
    If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
    Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

  13. Thrylos
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    With the Twins' Spring Training almost in the books and having spend about 10 days in Fort Myers following the Twins' closely (here are all my Spring Training articles in Chronological order,) I am ready to make a prediction for the 2016 Twins.
     
    This team has a few question marks left, but a lot of my concerns were answered:

    Miguel Sano will be a moster with the bat again this season, and regardless of his size, he will be at least as good an outfielder as Torii Hunter was last season, when it all said and done.
    Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson are men on a mission in the Twins' rotation and might be the best 1-2 punch the Twins' had since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson in 1991. Phil Hughes is pitching better than last season and Ricky Nolasco is pitching like a man with something to prove, and he has to. The only question mark in the rotation is Tommy Milone, who could be easily replaced by the likes of Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios, or even Taylor Roger, if the need comes.
    Byung Ho Park is the real thing. And he does not have an attitude about it. In 2015 DH was the most productive position in the Twins' lineup, mainly because the promotion of Sano. The Twins got .251/.338/.421 with 21 HRs from the DH position in 2015. I expect this to be Park's baseline.
    Byron Buxton has shown signs of improvement with the bat, albeit small. His glove alone is worth +2 wins and much improved Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia (who is in tremendous shape btw,) can pick the slack if necessary.
    Kurt Suzuki also looks better and refreshed. Will a smaller workload keep them getting close to his 2014 numbers? I hope so.
    Joltin' Joe Mauer (sorry couldn't help myself) has an .802 OPS for the Spring, which beat his .756 and .667 OPS the last 2 Springs, sunglasses or not.

    More importantly this team looks like a team that wants to win, a team that wins and a team that has fun doing it.
     
    The biggest question mark is the bullpen, and especially the closer. If you find out that the out of shape closer, who fell apart the last 2 seasons, took up home brewing as a hobby in the off-season and his fastball and slider are a good 5 to 6 miles per hour below their peak, you have to be concerned. On the other hand, if Perkins falters, the Twins have good options at AA and AAA, including righties JT Chargois and Nick Burdi who can have a part in the Twins' pen today, and lefty Mason Melotakis, who is a few innings away from returning from TJ surgery as a dominant lefty.
     
    The pen was the Twins' biggest concern this off-season and it has not been addressed at all. The 2016 Twins will go as far as their pen lets them go. I hope that Ryan has a short leash on Perkins and does the right thing for the team when he has to.
     
    Because of this, and my lack of trust in the Twins' GM and the Twins' closer, I predict that the Twins will finish the 2016 season with an 87-75 record. 90 wins will not be out of reach, with a couple of early season pen investments...
  14. Thrylos
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
     
    Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
     
    As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
     
    Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
     
    So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
     
    Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...
  15. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    There is about a week of Spring Training games (actually 9) left for the Twins, and the composition of the Opening Day 25 man roster is still very unclear, with exactly the same questionmarks as in the beginning of Spring Training:
     
    1. Who would be the last 2 Twins' Starting pitchers? Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, or Ricky Nolasco? Pick 2.
     
    There was the feeling that it could be a 5 way battle with Jose Berrios and Trevor May also vying for a spot in the rotation, but it seems that the inclusion of Berrios & May was for PR reasons. Milone seems to have earned a spot in the rotation, by arguably being the most consistent starter this Spring, so apparently it is up to Duffey and Nolasco, who both had pretty mediocre springs in official games to claim that last spot. Nolasco had a great outing in the back fields the other day, and my take has been that it has always been his spot to loose, and he has not done that, or Duffey has not done anything to win it. But still the Twins have not made it clear
     
    2 (or rather 1b) Who will be joining Perkins, Jepsen, May and Fien in the Twins' pen?
     
    The only thing clearer than the beginning of the Spring Training here is that Ryan & Co do not want any of the young fireballers to start the season up North, and even though they pitched better than the rest, including the anointed closer whose fastball is about 6 mph south of its peak, Nick Burdi and JT Chargois, were reassigned and optioned to the minor league squads earlier. Among the other cuts in the reliever group, Mason Melotakis did show flashes of greatness, but also did show rust from sitting for one year, which needs to be shaken, Pat Dean and Alex Meyer need to start games in AAA, Randy Rosario and Yorman Landa are a few years away, Mike Strong and his 40-man spot has proven the head scratcher that has been on paper and Aaron Thompson has proven than wearing a Civil War Beard in 80 degrees in Florida will not help your case if you do not have any talent. Jake Reed was also disappointing and clearly did not pitch as well as the other young talent in the above list
     
    Who is left:
     
    from the RH side:
     
    JR Graham
    Brandon Kintzler
    Ryan Pressly
    Michael Tonkin
     
    from the LH side:
     
    Fernardo Abad
    Buddy Boshers
    Logan Darnell
    Ryan O' Rourke
    Taylor Rogers
    Dan Runzler
     
    The interesting thing is that none of those pitchers has pitched themselves out of competition. If someone asked me yesterday, I'd say that Tonkin and Graham do not belong, but today they both redeemed themselves and maybe bought themselves a few more days, esp. Graham. Tonkin, who is out of options, pitched two very clean innings throwing his fastball up to 95 and his slider up to 85, but those came against Baltimore's minor leaguers. I like what Brandon Kintzler did today and most of the Spring, but from that group, Ryan Pressly deserves the first right hand spot, if there is only going to be one. As far as the lefties go, Abad, O'Rourke, and Runzler, pitched equally well, so it could be one or 2 of them getting jobs. Only O'Rourke has a 40-man spot, which is a consideration, but with Strong's primarily and Tonkin's, secondarily, spots in jeopardy, there is still a lot of work to be done.
     
    And there is a wild card, who might make the Twins' pen better in 2016: Tyler Duffey. The former closer has not proven that he pitch more than 6 effective innings in the majors, and would likely be a force if the Twins' brass decide to move him to the pen, in a similar way that they did with Trevor May.
     
    (Tommorow: The position players)
  16. Thrylos
    Originally Published at .351/.387/.524 - The Twins' team slash line with less than two outs and men on third in 2015.
    .489/.460/.766 - The Twins' team slash line with one out and men on third in 2015.
    .000/.100/.100 - The Twins team slash line under the above circumstances today.
     
    They simply have to do better than this to compete in the upcoming season. And if that means trying to get the ball in play softly, instead of trying to hit home runs (Brian Dozier, Carlos Quentin, Oswaldo Arcia) or take a worthless base on balls (Kurt Suzuki,) let it be it. And the problem here is that at least 3 of the aforementioned 4 will make the 2016 Twins, but still have not understood those fundamentals.
     
    Today's Twins' game was closer that the box score would suggest. Also based on today's play, I am about to make a prognostication:
     
    Prognostication: Danny Santana won a job in the 25-man roster for 2016.
     
    Santana was one of the few Twins who played like they wanted to get a job today. Two good hits in his first plate appearances and good follow ups on the bases, negate loosing the ball in the sun at RF in the later innings. He played like he wanted that job, and I think that it is his to lose.
     
    Albeit, Carlos Quentin did not do so. Struck out twice with a man on third and less than two outs, and was a disaster about to be made in first with the globe (but thankfully did not happen.)
     
    Byron Buxton was pretty awful today. Yes, he took first on bases on balls by avoiding slapping at balls in the dirt in the first inning and moved to second on a mistake, but failed to score from second on a smoking single to RF corner by Santana in the same inning. Hard time in the rest of his plate appearances and the cherry on top was the 3 pitch strikeout in his last inning. Pretty sure that Buxton does not get it, and I don't know what he needs to get it. The one thing that he does not need is pampering and false hopes and major league roster sports. He has to start at AAA, until he can prove that he is the hitter people hoped he will be. Also, he looks at least one step slower, since he was called out on a ball that he hit to deep short, a ball that he would have beaten last season easily for an infield single. Unless he did not get slower, but got lazier. Regardless, the big leagues are way above his head right now and I hope that the Twins brass do not make the mistake to bring him up North soon.
     
    Kyle Gibson made another brilliant appearance, allowing mainly ground balls. His outing was very much like the one I described a few days ago. Likely will be the Twins second or third starter this season.
     
    Taylor Rogers who relieved Gibson had a good outing with a fastball between 86 and 91 mph and a curve between 75 and 77. Nothing spectacular, and had a lot of us on an edge, but it was effective.
     
    So was Glen Perkins'. He threw fastballs at 91, 91, 91, 89, 89, 94, 89, and 89 mph and two sliders at 78 and 81 mph in an 1-2-3 inning. About 3-4 mph below where he should be, but...
     
    Casey Fien threw his fastball between 88 and 91 mph, a single slider at 83 and a single changeup at 79 mph, retiring everyone he faced.
     
    Trevor May had a fastball of 91-94, changeup in the low 80s, and a curveball about 75-76, but was not effective and did not have even a decent defense behind him
     
    I expect more than a few cuts today. Tomorrow the Twins are playing the Orioles in the Hammond Stadium at 1:05 PM local time.
    ----
  17. Thrylos
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    --------------------------
     
    The Minnesota Twins played the New York Yankees this afternoon at Hammond Stadium, featuring a lineup that could very well be their opening day lineup.
     
    The starter, Ervin Santana, pitched better than what you will see when you see his line score. He threw 69 pitches, mostly fastballs (91-94 mph; at some point right after the balk, he hit a 95, a 96 and a 97 mph in a row), sliders 82-84 mph and changeups 84-86 mph. All of his pitches were working well and he was getting both looking and swinging strikes. In the second inning, that he needed 21 pitches, he was squeezed badly by the home plate umpire who did not call the low strike he called in the previous evening and for Ivan Nova all night long. Santana is in mid-season form and will be the Twins' opening day starter, as discussed here about 40 days ago.
     
    Fernando Abad relieved Santana in the 6th inning and threw four kinds of pitches: a 90-92 mph Fastball, which did not fare well since it either was a ball or was contacted, and a couple times for hits, a 76-78 mph Curveball that was much better, a single 74 mph changeup that was taken for a strike and a single 87 mph cutter was was a ball. Not a clean inning by any means, but it was workable. Would Abad be better than any of the other LHRP possibilities in the Twins' pen? I am not sure and he has not really pulled away from the competition.
     
    Speaking of, JR Graham at this point is not a major league caliber pitcher. In addition to 20 lbs, he lost at least 2 mph in his (straight) fastball that now tops at 94 mph. Not a pretty picture today by any means.
     
    On the other hand, the Rule 5 draft pick two seasons before the Twins selected Graham, Ryan Pressly, looks like he belongs to the Twins pen. He threw a 94-96 mph fastball that had too much movement for the opposing batters to turn, a pretty nasty cutter/slider at 86-89 mph, and a solid 81-83 mph curve. He will definitely be an upgrade to the Twins pen, but will he be enough if he is the only one?
     
    On errors: Miguel Sano "booted" a ball in the Right Field when he moved to his left to get in the right trajectory of a line drive, he did, but it hit the base of his glove. E9. On the other hand, Brain Dozier "booted" a ball earlier in that evening, when he decided to dive for a ball that was totally catchable without a dive. Botched dive, scored as a hit.
     
    Carlos Quentin might be the stiffest baseball player I have seen play, and this includes such notables as Brian Buscher and Joshua Willingham. He came in to play first relieving Joe Mauer in the late innings and made a fairly comical play. When the ball touches a bat, Quentin puts his head down without looking at the ball and heads to first base to receive the ball potentially. In one of those instances the ball hit less than a foot in front of him, without him being either away or interested. Tailor made 3-6-3 double play, it just did not happen, and it is a shame. I just cannot see how the Twins can bring this guy up North, because what he brings is close to what Park brings to the table but will less glove and bat. Sorry Carlos, nice knowing you.
     
    Speaking of Byung Ho Park: Great adjustment in his first plate appearance: Ivan Nova definitely schooled not to throw anything but stuff outside the zone, started with 2 curveballs in the dirt, that Park took for balls. Then he threw a couple of chin low fastballs that Park missed swinging, but however adjusted and took the next 2 fastballs in the same location for balls and a walk. Great to see this from Park.
     
    Good double for Byron Buxton in the base of the wall and over the outfielders' head in the 5th. However there was a problem: JR Murphy who was on first, did not even attempt to score, a thing that he would have done easily and Buxton was robbed by a triple, a thing he would have done easily. There were zero outs, but the Twins have to be more aggressive in the bases this season, and really there is nothing much to lose, esp. in the Spring Training, being so...
     
    Tomorrow the Twins are hosting the Pirates at Hammond Stadium, with Kyle Gibson getting the starting node.
  18. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    The thunderstorm system that caused havoc in Central Florida and the Grapefruit League and cancelled the Twins' game against the Pirates in Bradenton, hit Fort Myers with its tail end and cut action in the Minor League Fields short. Here are my notes from today:
     
    With the Twins A+ and A teams playing at home against those of the Red Sox, I was looking forward to see Nick Gordon in action. Alas, he is still out injured.
     
    Andro Cutura, the Twins 7th round pick in the 2014 draft from Southeastern Louisiana University has never been on my radar, but now he will. He has an interesting 4 pitch mix: four-seamer, two-seamer, slider/cutter and a changeup. They all overlap in velocity and his range is up to 91 for the four-seamer and down to 81 mph for the changeup. He has great command and control of all his pitches and thew all of them in any count. All of his pitches have the potential of being swing and miss pitches. His velocity range is somewhat atypical for successful pitches, but his command is also atypical. He utilizes the whole zone, up, down, in and out, and he is not afraid to throw a sinker or a cutter in the dirt for the hitters to change. His windup will bring memories of Juan Berenguer to the older Twins' fans, since he starts it with both of his glove and ball arms extended in front of him. Easy mechanics with a small pause right before his release, which is enough to confuse the hitters. He pitched 3 great innings striking out 5 and having the rest of the hitters ground out. He fell apart in his fourth inning of work, allowing 4 consecutive singles after his first fly out. Not sure whether there stamina issues (the 22 year old missed all of 2014 recovering from injury) or whether his excellent sinker and cutter flatten when he pitches form the stretch, which was the case today. Definitely someone who is not a household name, to keep an eye on.
     
    Logan Wade, the 24 year old Australian who had an excellent 2013 in Elizabethton and then he fell off the face of the earth, looked very good today. In his first plate appearance, he singled to the opposite field, was successful in a delayed steal of second base when the ball was pitched in the dirt, and then scored from second on a single by TJ White to shallow right field. In his next plate appearance he hit a line drive home run to the opposite (right) field as a right hand batter against Boston's LHP Jalen Beeks.
     
    Speaking of TJ White, the 24 year old Twins' 18th round draft pick in 2014 from UNLV, has been riding a 4 AB hitting streak that he extended to 6 with singles in his first 2 plate appearances.
     
    Max Murphy, also 24 and the 9th round pick of the 2014 draft, had another excellent day with a long home run and a shoestring catch in the outfield. I wrote what he did about days ago here.
     
    Brian Navarreto, the 21 year old Twins 6th round pick in 2013 from Jacksonville, FL Arlington Day School, looked definitely bigger in statute from last Spring. At this point he looks bigger than Adam Walker. Navarreto was always regarded as a good catcher, but his hitting was been more than suspect. He has a very good plate appearance with a single at the opposite field, after he swang wildly at a breaking ball in the dirt, but let the next one go for a ball. There are some hopeful signs but there is still a lot of work necessary.
  19. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Another day without a Twins' home game and I decided to state at the back fields of Lee County Sports Complex to watch Ricky Nolasco pitch with the Twins' AAA team against the Red Sox' AAA team, instead of making the trip across I-75 to Jet Blue Park to watch the MLB Twins and Tyler Duffey face the MLB Sox. Despite what the Twins are saying, and not only because they are starting the same day these days, it is pretty clear that Tommy Milone is guaranteed a position in the rotation and the last spot will be a potential battle between Nolasco and Duffey.
     
    Nolasco pitched for 4 innings in Field 3 today. He threw four pitches, a 90-92 Fastball, a 73-77 mph Curveball, an 82-84 mph Slider and a 80-82 mph split finger change. All in all, Nolasco's appearance today was much better than that by Hughes yesterday. As with Hughes, Kurt Suzuki was Nolasco's catcher. Last week I wrote an in depth analysis of Nolasco's performance and among other things, I included an analysis of his pitches and results. And it was spot on based on my observations today: His curveball was totally filthy and induced both looking and swinging strikes and strikeouts and weak grounders. His split finger change is a pretty much awful pitch. Very little command and when it was in the strike zone did not fare well. This pitch, as per my previous recommendation, should never see the light of day or artificial day in a major league ballpark again. His fastball was better as the game went on with more command in the later than the earlier innings and he broke at least a couple bats with it. Definitely his breaking stuff is his out pitches and it is plus to plus plus. The problem is that he needs the good fastball so that major league hitters do not avoid his breaking balls and waiting for the fastball (or the horrible split finger.) If he throws his slider and curveball about 50%+ of the time, he has a good possibility for a come back season, depending on the day his fastball is having. Overall it was a very good performance over the eyes of a couple of scouts (Rangers & Padres) and Terry Ryan and the Twins' media dignitaries:
     
    Prognostication: based on his Spring Performances, his stuff and his career record, unless traded, Ricky Nolasco will be the Twins' fifth starter over Tyler Duffey who had another hard start today.
     
    A few more observations from Field Three today:
     
    I was looking forward to see the Twins' number 18 prospect for 2016, Daniel Palka for the first time live as a Twin. He hit a no-doubter home run in the first evening to the warehouse behind right Centerfield in his first plate appearance and then hit another long ball to far right for a foul in his second PA before eventually grounded out to first in a footrace. I like what I saw from him in a limited action. I think that he will turn into a useful player for the Twins and will bring in some left handed power they really lack...
     
    Speaking of left handed power, DJ Hicks, hit a very long home run, right about where Palka hit his. Really good to see him finally healthy and swinging the bat, since the Twins need that left hand power.
     
    Speaking of power, the Twins' number 19 prospect for 2016, Adam Brett Walker, hit two very long home runs in fastballs in the middle of plate and struck out in 3 breaking balls in the dirt in his other plate appearance. If someone teaches Walker to recognize the spin of the breaking ball and keep the bat on his shoulder when he sees it, will be doing him and the Twins a great service.
     
    Niko Goodrum, the Twins' number 37 prospect for 2016, who came a bit bigger this Spring showed much better plate recognition taking two walks in his first two plate appearances, but was thrown out stealing after the first, in a situation that would have been an easy SB for him last season, and made an error bobbling a ball at SS. OF is his position and hopefully this will be where he will play when the middle infield cuts from the MLB camp trickle down to the minors.
     
    After today's cuts, here are the players left who are competing for 7 spots in the Twins' pen:
     
    Glen Perkins
    Kevin Jepsen
    Trevor May
    Casey Fien
    Ryan O'Rourke
    JR Graham
    Ryan Pressly
    Mike Tonkin
     
    Logan Darnell
    Taylor Rogers
    Fernando Abad
    Buddy Boshers
    Dan Runzler
     
    Brandon Kintzler
    Nolasco or Duffey
     
    The first 8 (maybe with the exception of Pressly) were part of the 2015 bullpen that was one of the worst bullpens (maybe THE Worst, depending on how you are counting) in the league; one of the group of the next 5 lefties will replace Brian Duensing and one of the next two might replace Blaine Boyer.
     
    Unless the Twins decide to get Duffey a pen roll (which is unlikely since they will like him to start in Rochester,) this pen is spiting image of the 2015 pen that was as effective as spitting in the wind...
     
    This is by no means good news for the Twins...
  20. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today, for the second start in a row, the Twins chose not to pitch Phil Hughes against the Orioles (a team they open the season with 3 games in Baltimore.) Instead Hughes pitched 5 innings in the back fields with the Twins' A+ team against the Rays' A+ squad. Curt Suzuki was there to catch him. Next door with the A squad, Kevin Jepsen pitched the first inning and Oswaldo Arcia had 3 plate appearances as a DH against the Rays' A team.
     
    Phil Hughes labored for 5 innings with 78 pitches, including a 28 pitch second inning, in which the defense behind him failed to convert 3 straight forward double play opportunities. He thew 55 of those pitches in strikes and commanded the ball pretty well, inducing mostly weak ground balls, a couple of fly balls and a couple of strikeouts. His fastball was at 89-91, with one at 92, his cutter 86-91, changeup 81-84 and curve 77-79 mph. These numbers were close to his 2015 velocity averages (90.7 for the FB, and 87.8 for the cutter.) All in all it was a "getting his work in" type of session for Hughes, who by no means cruised against high A competition.
     
    Across the field, Kevin Jepsen had a better game, of what I could catch with my peripheral vision, but Oswaldo Arcia stole the show there, hitting a home run close to the major league practice field, under the watching eyes of scouts from the Cubs, Padres, Athletics and another team. The same Rangers' scout who was there yesterday was the single scout scouting Hughes and the Twins' A+ team.
     

     
    Additional impressions from the A team field:
     
    Amaurys Minier, the Twins' number 15 prospect for 2016, played First Base, coming off an injury plague season in Elizabethton. His swing seems more compact that it did last season and he legged out a single in a not very hard hit ball at the SS and had another opposite field single at an outside corner ball with full count. Also went from first to third with ease on a ball hit to Right Field. His speed and running has been improved, since Minier has been pretty much a non-factor in the base paths his whole career. He made a couple of good fielding plays at first base, moving easily both to his left and to his right and made secure and on the spot underhand throws to the pitcher to get the outs.
     
    Jermaine Palacios, the Twins' number 8 prospect for 2016, played Short Stop at that game. He seems not to have gained a pound last off-season, but his fielding, which has been for a good reason, was fine. He made several routine plays at shortstop and did not look tentative making them, but he was not really challenged. In the couple of plate appearances I followed, he showed quick wrists and good contact capabilities.
     
    I saw a single plate appearance by Travis Blackenhorn, the Twins' number 38 prospect for 2016. He has the capability of making contact since he saw several balls and fouled a lot of them. He went with the ball and was able to move it to the opposite field. Would need work to start making productive contact, but the basics are there. He did not look tentative at all and went around his business like he owned the box. Reminded me a bit of a young(er) Max Kepler.
     
    22 year old lefty Sam Clay, pitched 4 innings in that contest. He featured an 89-91 mph fastball with good movement in both planes and a low 80s slider and change up. The slider is above average at this point and has the potential of being a plus pitch, but his control with all of his pitches is all over the place. If he learns how to command and control them, the former 4th round draft pick of 2014, will be someone to watch for. But he is still a work in progress. He looks like a good defender, defending a tough bunt towards his throwing arm side flawlessly.
     
    25 year old Tyler Stirewalt, a righty who was drafted by the Twins in the 21st round of the 2013 draft and lost all of 2014 and part of 2015 to injuries, also pitched in that game. He threw a 90-92 mph fastball and a 77-79 slurve. Many command and control issues as well, but there is potential there. However being 25 and never pitching above Rookie ball, might mean that there might not be time to realize that potential.
     
    A couple of snippets from the other field:
     
    Max Murphy, the Twins 9th Round pick in 2014, a Minnesotan from Robbinsdale looked like a man on a mission. This is his age 23 season and he really looks bulked up and much stronger. He legged out a triple in a long hit at the CF over the defenders' heads and scored in the subsequent play by tagging up after a shallow ball at the RF. After an excellent 2014, he did not do much last season in Cedar Rapids, but definitely someone to pay attention to this season.
     
    Felix Jorge, the Twins' number 20 prospect for 2016 pitched 2 innings for the high A team. I had a chance to watch one of them. His sinker was from 91-93 with good heavy action and his changeup was in the low 70s and it was pretty much lethal as usual. Seemed to have good control with the fastball, which has been questionable in spots. The big question mark around Jorge is weather he will have the stamina to be a started, which will likely take more than a season to answer.
     
    Regretted not seeing Nick Gordon and Lamond Wade who were injured as well as Trevor May who threw after I departed.
     
    Tomorrow Ricky Nolasco will be starting in the back fields, while the Twins will be playing the Red Sox at the Jet Blue Stadium and I will be there to give you the action on the field by him, as well as by the scouts on the bleachers.
  21. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----------
     
    Today the Twins had a 7:05 PM game hosting the Boston Red Sox. At 1PM the Twins' AAA and AA teams hosted the equivalent of the Orioles'. I spent the afternoon watching the Twins AA team, before moved to Hammond Stadium in the evening for the nightcap.
     
    I was delighted to see that Tyler Jay was the starter for the AA game. Jay was ranked as the Twins' number 2 prospect in my off-season 2016 rankings and I have to say that he proved me happy with that ranking. He pitched for a full 4 innings and featured 4 pitches: a 93-94 mph FB that topped at 96, an 85-86 mph slider, an 81-83 mph change up and a 77-80 mph curve. This is a very effective pitch mix for him. He has a short arm delivery and hides the ball well. He commands all pitches well and his fastball is definitely his out pitch; sets it up beautifully with the slider and the change up. He throws his curve low and outside the strike zone to make hitters chase it; and they do. At this level. One of the questions about Jay has been the ability to be a started as far as endurance goes. Today he was not frugal with his pitches, which is something that he would have to learn as he matures as a professional.
     
    His Catcher was 25 year old Joe Maloney who the Twins signed as a minor league free agent after an MVP season in the Canadian-American Association Independent League Rockland Boulders. Maloney's problem is that he is not a very good catcher and he showed that today, having a throw sail over the head of the second baseman on a steal attempt and two passed balls. The second passed ball bounced off Maloney's glove to the home plate umpire's hand to his cup, incapacitating the umpire. Twins' legend Tom Kelly had to call balls and strikes behind the pitcher for the next half inning before a replacement umpire relieved him:
     

     
    Another new minor league free agent on display today was Keury De La Cruz. The 24 year old outfielder has one of the longest swings I have seen with an extremely violent back swing. After his first PA, I mumbled that someone will get hurt here, and in the 5th inning, it happened to get the Baltimore catcher's head with that backswing. Some serious coaching needs to happen here. De La Cruz provided a bit of a comic relief sliding feet first about 2 feet to the left of where a routine fly ball fell in the second inning. Will not be surprised in the Twins bite the bullet and cut him soon.
     
    The Twins signed 27 year old RHP Omar Belcomo from the American Association Independent League where he last played for the Wichita Lugnuts, to make 3 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle at the end of their season. Belcomo last played affiliated ball in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays single A team at Bowling Green. He is an interesting player to keep an eye on, as he is a poor man's Sam Deduno. He has two pitches: A fastball that goes from 86 to 91, which he can absolutely not command and goes all over the place, including the head of a Baltimore hitter in his second inning of work. His second pitch is a 77-81 mph change up that actually is an above average to a plus pitch, and a pitch that he seems to be able to control.
     
    Raul Fernandez was another of the minor league free agents the Twins signed last off-season. The 25 year old RHP Dominican was converted from Catcher to Pitcher by the Rockies after his first DSL season and spent last season in the White Sox' AA team. Long arm motion with 92-93 mph FB with late pop, an 88 mph cutter/2-seamer and a low 80s change up. Very good ability to mix them and throw them all for strikes and good command. He seemed to confuse batters.
     
    Brian Gilbert seems to get his fastball up a couple ticks, consistently hitting 94 and 95 with a couple of 96 mph. He complemented that with an 85-86 mph slider. Seemed to be effectively wild, but it is the start of the Spring Training. Just 23, drafted by the Twins in the 7th round in 2013; keep your eye open for him.
     
    Yorman Landa was the last pitcher for the AA Twins, fresh from the MLB side of Spring Training. I last saw him pitch a couple seasons ago and he is a different pitcher. He supplemented his excellent high 80s low 90s 2-seamer with a 4-seamer that sit at 93-95 and popped up to 96, but is straight with inconsistent command and control. Straight FBs at 95 and 96 will get hit hard by good AA hitters and that is what happened to him today. His 78-81 mph curve was good. He did not throw a change up today. Definite potential there, but he needs work.
     
    Something to keep in mind: Today watching the Twins' AA pitchers was a Texas Rangers' (who train in AZ) scout. Not sure that anything is going on, but he was there.
     
    Fast forward a few hrs to the Twins' MLB game at Hammond Stadium against the Red Sox.
     
    Kyle Gibson was the starter, and he had things really working for him, including his best pitch, a slider, purely made of filth, dancing at 84-86 mph and striking out Red Sox who were either looking at it with open eyes or swinging and missing wildly. That today was a FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKie Liriano slider in his prime, Ladies and Gentlemen. Four seamer 92-95, two seamer high 80s, and a changeup at 79-81 was the rest of Gibson's repertoire tonight. Gibson was in mid-season form.
     
    Another player who was in mid-season form was Miguel Sano, who punished a Bucholtz breaking ball deeply off the Centerfield wall for a double, and even more importantly made a solid catch in RF and threw a pea that would had thrown the tagging runner out at third if Trevor Plouffe did not bobble the ball.
     
    Back to pitching. One of the greatest mysteries this spring has been Glen Perkins' velocity, so I charted all of his pitches. Here they are:
     
    FB 90, FB 89, FB 91, FB 86, FB 89, SL 78, FB 91, FB 88, SL 78, SL 79, SL 81, FL 89, FB 89, FB 90, SL 81, FB 89.
     
    86-91 mph FB and 78-81 mph SL. This is a good 5-6 mph off where Perkins need to be to be effective. Nevertheless this should be raising more Red Flags to the Twins' brass than there are outside the Kremlin...
     
    Have a few more notes from today, but for the sake of brevity, I will include them in one of the future writeups
  22. Thrylos
    In the first part of this series, I suggested that the Twins trade Danny Santana, Mike Tonkin and Jake Reed to the Oakland Athletics for Ben Zorbrist and Tyler Clippard; and to promote Jorge Polanco as their starting shortstop. In the second part of this series, I suggested that the Twins trade Tommy Milone and Jason Wheeler to the Phillies for C Carlos Ruiz and LHP Jake Diekman and move Trevor May back to their rotation. With these 2 trades, they would address their deficiencies at Catcher and Shortstop positions and would add a RH and a LH set up pitcher. They would also add post-season experience and one of the most versatile players in the game in Ben Zorbrist. This third trade would be the cherry on the top, not only allowing them to improve both the pen and the rotation and add considerable bench help, but building for the future as well, and it is a blockbuster. and addressing another elephant in the living room: Lack of LH power.
     
    Trade number 3:
     
    The Twins send Oswaldo Arcia, Ervin Santana, Casey Fien and Blair Boyer to the San Diego Padres of SP Tyson Ross, RHP Joaquin Benoit and OF Melvin (don't call me BJ) Upton.
     
    I thought hard about that one, and it can help, but there is a catch: Other than Oswaldo Arcia (and switch hitting Kennys Vargas) The Twins do not have much left handed power, so:
     
    The Twins trade OF Eddie Rosario to the Miami Marlins for RHP Carter Capps and Minor League LHP Raudel Lazo
     
    Why would the Twins do it?
     
    24 year old RHP Carter Capps (no relation to you know who) has the third fastest fastball in the majors averaging 98.1 mph, routinely reaching triple digits, leads the majors with 49.5% K%, has a miniscule 1.37 ERA (and even smaller 1.16 FIP and 1.07 xFIP,) spots a 0.750 WHIP (with an average .293 BABIP) and has probably the most devastating knuckle-slider in baseball. Why would the Marlins give him away? Well... they do not like him. It might be the delivery. It might be something else, but they do not like him. And they do have AJ Ramos and Sam Dyson ahead of him; and maybe for a good reason. But he is hot. The hottest pitcher around. The Twins should take advantage of that. Raudel Lazo might be a relatively unknown, as he is a 26 year old who just got promoted to AA, but is a Cuban defector who just started to find himself, and on the mount could be Aroldis Chapman's little brother. Giving up Eddie Rosario might hurt, but with Aaron Hicks finding himself, needing Arcia's left hand power badly, Byron Buxton up and coming and Max Kepler and Adam Brett Walker in the wings, Rosario is expandable. And you have to give quality to get quality. Lazo would likely play for Chattanooga in this scenario and would compete for a spot next season. Oswaldo Arcia would get called up to take Rosario's spot.
     
    Why would the Marlins do it?
     
    They have a huge need of outfielders, with no OF prospects in the pipeline. Rosario is versatile, will hit, can play all OF positions well and can run well and all they have to give are two players they do not count on for the long run. Plus Eddie gets to play an hour away from home by plane.
     
    Recap:
     
    Here is what the Twins' roster would look after these trades (newly acquired or promoted in italics) :
     
    C - Ruiz
    1B - Mauer
    2B - Dozier
    3B - Plouffe
    SS - Polanco
    LF - Arcia
    CF - Hicks
    RF - Hunter
    DH - Sano
     
    Bench - Suzuki
    Bench - Zobrist (rotating to OF and SS and playing 80% of games)
    Bench - Robinson (Buxton waiting)
    Bench - Escobar
    Bench - Nunez (*)
     
    SP - Hughes
    SP - Gibson
    SP - Santana
    SP - Pelfrey
    SP - May
     
    CL - Perkins (L)
    RP - Diekman (L)
    RP - Clippard
    RP - Capps
    RP - Duensing (L)
    RP - Graham
     
    (*) Alternatively another pitcher (eg. Pressly) might occupy that spot.
     
     

  23. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Ricky Nolasco's performance with the Minnesota Twins has been a disappointment. He was signed into a large 4-year contract after the 2013 season to be the Twins' Ace, a destiny he has yet to fulfill. There has been discussion this Spring that despite that contract, Nolasco would have to earn a position in the 2016 Twins' rotation, and hints that at this point, he might be outside, looking in. A couple of days ago, there were indications that he might not want to accept this, and the Twins' blogosphere and fan forums erupted. I am not going to discuss this particular event at this point, other than say that it is not anything new. For example, last season Mike Pelfrey did not take his demotion to the pen lightly, and back in the day, current Twins' closer Glen Perkins filed a Union grievance against the Twins for being demoted. Nolasco's situation is not a done deal. Yet. I think that it is really important to look at his performance, potential root causes for the drop and whether there is hope for Nolasco being an effective starter for the Twins. I will attempt to do this by examining several metrics, and look at raw numbers and data about his pitches.
     
    A few years ago (2011) there was an excellent article about Nolasco, by Vince Caramela at The Hardball Times, titled Ricky Nolasco and the Disappearing Curveball. He looked at Nolasco's pitch selection from 2008 to 2010 and concluded that Nolasco does not throw his curveball enough and has replaced it with a slider, which is not as good. Let's take this as a starting point and look at Nolasco's pitch usage in his whole career from 2006-2015.
     
    Very Important Note (and this stands for this whole article) : 2007 and 2015 data are based on 21.3 and 37.3 innings pitched only, so they might not be significant. Here is Nolasco's % of each pitch:
     

     
    Clearly Nolasco decreased the use of his curve and started to replace some of its use with a slider beginning in 2008. The year before, he replaced a change up with a split finger fastball. How does this correlate with results? Let's superimpose ERA+ and FIP+ on this graph to see any trends. FIP+? Is there such a beast. I needed something analogous to ERA+ (higher is better), so I used FIP- (lower is better from Fangraphs) and took its mirror image around 100 (ie. 90 FIP- became 110 FIP+). Here is the data:
     

     
    As you can see there is not much correlation of ERA+ (blue) and FIP+ (green) with any individual pitch use and potential replacement of curveball with the slider. If anything, the peaks in ERA+ and FIP+ are in 2008 and 2009, the years he started throwing that slider more and more. Ok. This theory does not seem very true. How about contact? Here is Contanct% off Nolasco in the years with ERA+ and FIP+
     

     
    No. Nothing there. Contact% has been practically flat, and withing the standard deviation his whole career. How about better contact or more contact or batting average in balls in play (BABIP?) But this is luck. Then how about percent of runners left on base, which also is luck. %LOB fits this scale, but I had to normalize BABIP to something that looks like this (higher more favorable and around 100) so I created something I call BABIP+ : I took BABIP and multiplied by 300 (so it is around 100), but this would make higher less favorable, so this is more like BABIP-, so I did its mirror image around 100, and call it BABIP+. Here we go:
     
     

     
    As you can see we are getting somewhere. Both Left on Base and BABIP correlate nicely with ERA+ (orange), but not with FIP+ (lighter blue). So why don't we call the beast by its name and make a single metric out of LOB% and BABIP to represent it and see how it correlates with ERA+
     

     
    Here we have it. Almost perfect correlation of ERA+ with LUCK. And LUCK is LOB% times BABIP+ and divided by 70 to fit in the scale. So we confirmed what we always knew: ERA and his derivatives, like ERA+, have a lot of random causes, especially things outside of the control of the pitcher such as BABIP, LOB% etc (I could have used HR/FB here, too, but there is no point.)
     
    So the major reason for Nolasco's performance as measured by ERA+ (and ERA) was luck.
     
    How about FIP-based performance, which would actually more importantly tell us what the Twins may expect. Is there anything that correlates well with FIP. Clearly, there is a decline in FIP+ after 2009, with a few peaks, but the moving average is there. There seem to be a couple of things. Enter mystery measurement:
     

     
    Ignore the ERA+ blue line here. We are done with that. This mystery measurement (burgundy) nicely approximates a FIP+ tendency. You can clearly see the peaks in 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2015 and the valleys in 2010 and 2012, but it is much smoother than FIP+. It more like a running average, which could be a very good leading indicator. What is Mystery Measure? Something very simple and has to do with Nolasco's pitch selection: It is the number of his pitches that were not changeups (a pitch he is not throwing any more) or split fingers, a pitch he has been throwing about 10% of the time as his off-speed pitch. If you look at Fangraphs pitch values, this pitch has been below average and ineffective the last 3 seasons.
     
    So one of the reasons that Nolasco has has bad years as measured by FIP+, is that his split finger fastball is not a good pitch for him. Abandoning it and maybe replacing it with his curveball, will help him in the future. But how much? FIP is better than ERA, but FIP is not perfect either and the reasons are stated here. My preferred tools in looking at pitcher performance are SIERA, which is also explained in the previous link, and it is a measure close to ERA and FIP scale and direction (lees is better) and PE and xPE, which I devised and are on a different scale and the opposite direction. Bigger is better. They are quickly derived, unlike SIERA, and have a great correlation to SIERA, which makes them easy to use. Here is Nolasco's career performance described by PE and xPE (xPE normalizes PE for league average BABIP, so it is more of a predictive tool than PE). The xPE and PE scale is as follows for starters:
     
    35+ Ace
    25+ number 1 or 2
    15+ number 2 or 3
    10+ number 4 or 5
    7.5+ number 5
    <7 .5="" level="" p="" replacement="">

    Clearly based on PE and xPE (and ERA+ and FIP+ before it, but not as obvious) Nolasco had a career peak from 2008-2010 when he was a top of the rotation starter, and declined afterwards. There was an outlier hickup in 2013, which showed potential for a number 2 (or 3) starter and that was not realized?
     
    So I am afraid that the 33 year old Nolasco is in the declining phase of his career reaching his peak at ages 26-28. Here is some additional proof: We are looking at his fastball and slider velocities through his career:
     

     
    As you can see the velocities of the fastball, and especially the slider have been declining. The slope of the decline in the Slider velocity is fascinating so I did this plot:
     

     
    What you see is PE and xPE (both multiplied by 5 for scale) and normalized slider velocity when 2006 is 100. PE and xPE really show clearly Nolasco's career bell curve, with the 2013 aberration, and unlike FIP, do not like his small sample 2016 either. The normalized slider velocity clearly approximates the drop.
     
    So additional explanations for Nolasco's performance is that he is in his declining years and his slider is not what used to be. For what is worth, Fangraphs pitch values, shows a considerable effectiveness of his slider in 2013, which definitely explains the bump in performance.
     
    In summary: Nolasco has been unlucky. However, he is in the declining phase of his career, is a pitcher who lives and dies with his breaking stuff, because his fastball is an average pitch and his slit finger a bad pitch. As his breaking stuff go, so does Nolasco. He could be better in 2016 if:
     
    a. Luck is on his side
    b. His breaking stuff improves (if there were injury considerations) or no further declines
    c. He stops throwing his split finger fastball and uses his curve as a change of pace pitch
     
    You cannot determine A. B will be a good leading indicator even in Spring Training and C. is totally up to him and his coaches and it is an easy fix.
  24. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    While the Twins blogosphere, fan sites, and sportswriters are being focusing on the fact that Joe Mauer, has been having issues with his vision, which is totally expected after a concussion and should not be news, there are 61 major league free agents who are unsigned. This does not include the unsigned minor league free agents.
     
     
    Here is a like of those sixty one free agents as of today, broken down alphabetically and loosely be position:
     
    31 position players:
     
    Pedro Alvarez 1B
    Jeff Baker 1B
    Corey Hart 1B
    Casey McGehee 1B/3B
    Justin Morneau 1B
    Chris Parmelee 1B
     
    Clint Barmes 2B/SS/3B
    Willie Bloomquist SS
    Alberto Callaspo 2B/3B
    Luis Yander La O Camacho 2B
    Ian Desmond SS (Declined Qualified Offer)
    David Freese 3B
    Jonathan Herrera 2B
    Juan Uribe 3B
    Rickie Weeks 2B/OF
     
    Marlon Byrd LF/RF
    David DeJesus LF
    Chris Denorfia LF/RF
    Dexter Fowler CF (Declined Qualified Offer)
    Jeff Francoeur RF
    Guillermo Heredia CF
    Austin Jackson CF
    Matt Joyce LF
    David Murphy LF/RF
    Ryan Raburn LF/RF
    Alex Rios RF
    Grady Sizemore LF/RF
    Drew Stubbs CF
    Will Venable LF/CF
    Shane Victorino RF/LF
    Delmon Young RF
     
    30 pitchers:
     
    Chad Billingsley RHSP
    Yovani Gallardo RHSP (Declined Qualified Offer)
    Jeremy Guthrie RHSP
    Aaron Harang RHSP
    Josh Johnson RHSP
    Tim Lincecum RHSP
    Kyle Lohse RHSP
    Alfredo Simon RHSP
    Randy Wolf RHSP
     
    Mark Buehrle LHSP
    Cliff Lee LHSP
    Mike Minor LHSP
     
    Burke Badenhop RHRP
    Matt Belisle RHRP
    Rafael Betancourt RHRP
    Jason Frasor RHRP
    Greg Holland RHRP
    Casey Janssen RHRP
    Justin Masterson RHRP
    Joe Nathan RHRP
    Bobby Parnell RHRP
    Ryan Webb RHRP
     
    Joe Beimel LHRP
    Neal Cotts LHRP
    Brian Duensing LHRP
    Sean Marshall LHRP
    Franklin Morales LHRP
    Manny Parra LHRP
    Eric Stults LHRP
    Matt Thornton LHRP
     
     
    There are several issues remaining with the Twins, primarily regarding their bullpen and outfield.
     
    The outfield is a catch-22 issue, with the primary issue being that there are not enough good hitting players who can play Centerfield with an average plus defense (Byron Buxton, Ryan Sweeney and Joe Benson have all potential hitting issues, which they need to overcome), while the corners are overflown with out of options Oswaldo Arcia and recently converted Miguel Sano, who are not all stars with the glove, and Eddie Rosario, who can in a pitch play centerfield but is suited to a corner position better. Add Danny Santana, the out of options almost ordained fourth outfielder and you have a problem, better solved by some subtraction and not only an addition.
     
    Austin Jackson, a 29 year old first time free agent with a career 11.8 UZR, 556 out of zone plays made, and 49 defensive runs saved in 7115 innings at CF. His .267/.311/.385 slash line between the Mariners and the Cubs in 2015 is not impressive by any means. For his career he has been the epitome of an average hitter hitting .273/.333/.399 (101 OPS plus). This is the exact player who could keep Centerfield warm for Byron Buxton for a season, and push Eddie Rosario to the corner where he belongs. This would require a. the Twins dealing Santana or Arcia (and since lack of LH power has been a problem against RHPs, Arcia should be a lock, unless they find an alternative) and b. Jackson accepting a single year contract much below the $7.7 million he made in 2015, filled with incentives, to get himself back in the market for 2017.
     
    Bullpen is probably the biggest eyesore out there, with Terry Ryan pretty much keeping the pen intact and hoping that: a. declining 33 year old closer Gren Perkins, will start pitching like it is 2012 again or like the beginning of the last 3 seasons, b. 31 year old Kevin Jepsen will sustain his outlier 2 months with the Twins instead of turning into an average reliever who was who he was before coming to the Twins and c. Casey Fien might get it together and prove reliable beyond the mop-up duties he is suited to. Also, Trevor May, who might be the best pitcher mentioned, is a wild card along with several young promising pitchers invited to Spring Training as well as the potential rotation rejects. So the 2016 Twins' bullpen is build on a prayer, hope and luck, so far and that is not how the bullpens of contenders should be build. Fortunately there are a couple of player who can help the Twins' pen in 2016 and beyond:
     
    Most of the free agent field, and especially at LHRP, which is a position that the Twins need the most help, is filled by players who have many things to prove in 2016 and for the most part is getting older or overcoming injuries. I would love it if the Twins bring back Brian Duensing, at least to see whether he can beat two of Ryan O'Rourke, Taylor Rogers, Fernando Abad or Mason Melotakis for a spot on the pen this spring. He has the skills, is a great member of the community and that decision will be a no-brainer to me. If the Twins can sign Aaron Thompson who has half the talent, no ties to the organization and the community and was suspended for drug use, they can sign Brian Duensing. Period.
     
    Justin Masterson, a 30 year old former top prospect who had a few good years in the Indians rotation, is very intriguing. Signing an one year $9.5M contract with the Red Sox in 2015, he fell flat. He started 9 games with 44 innings pitched, 21 walks and 32 strikeouts for a 6.14 ERA and 1.682 WHIP, pushing himself to the bullpen. His once 93 mph fastball, averaged 87.5 and his once 83 mph slider, averaged 82.3. And he is the poster-boy of the two pitch starter who cannot stay a starter when those pitches decline, because hitters will avoid the slider and seat on the non-so fast fastball. There is a gamble here but there are encouraging signs: After the move to the bullpen, his fastball that bottomed out to a 87 mph average in June, reached a 90.7 mph average in September. The slider that was at 78.6 in June, rebounded to 80.6 in September. Still about 2 mph slower than his career peak when he was missing bats and inducing soft grounders, as a reliever in 15.3 innings in 2015 he walked 6 and struck out 17 (10 K/9 , 25.4 K%), with a 4.11 ERA (5.42 FIP, 4.22 xFIP) and 1.37 WHIP (.324 BABIP), inducing 1.5 GB/FB. His FIP is inflated by a ridiculous 21.4% HR/FB. Given that and the BABIP-driven WHIP, in contrast to his strikeouts and groundball, and with the increased speed it is a good bet that Masterson can be a reliable reliever in 2016; at least a lot more reliable that, let's say Casey Fien, and potentially Kevin Jepsen from the right side. Masterson, like Jackson, would have all the incentives in the world to sign a make good one year contract with potential mutual options.
     
    Which brings us to the last player, who will likely not help the Twins in 2016, but this should be a longer term singing, at the 3-year mark with lots of incentives and back loaded: Greg Holland. The 30 year old Holland was the closer in the best bullpen in the majors in 2014 and until his injury in 2015; underwent UCL replacement (Tommy John) surgery on October 2, 2015. There is a slight chance that he could pitch in September and October in 2016, helping a team in the postseason, but this signing is for 2017 and 2018. Why sign now? Because you have to take the risk and jump ahead in the line, which will be long once he recovers and starts pitching. A 3 year contract loaded with incentives is a better deal that the one the Twins gave Nick Blackburn not to pitch.
     
    So there are still opportunities out there to close some of the Twins' holes this season, and they better start getting advantage of them, since there are a couple of handful of dates before pitchers and catchers report.
     

  25. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here and players 26-30 here.
     
     
    25. Ryan Eades RHP (30)
    DOB: 12/15/1991; Age: 24
    Positions:RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'2", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: 2th Round Draft Pick 2013
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2015)
     
    Eades was drafted by the Twins from Louisiana State in the second round of the 2013 draft. The Louisiana native has been a slow bloomer in the pros. I wrote about him in last season's list:
     
    His potential is a mid to top of the rotation starter with four good pitches. He reported had a plus fastball that sits at 93-95 mph and peaks at 97-98, with good command. However, the Eades I saw was a good 5 mph below those numbers and was pitching really tentatively. In his 2014 season he started 25 games in Cedar Rapids (133 IP). He was at an average age with the list and finished with 5.14 ERA (4.44 FIP) 98 Strikeouts and 50 BBs. His K% fell down to 16.6 %. His loss in velocity and inability to strike out players his age, further dropped him to number 30 in these rankings. Will likely move to Fort Myers for 2015, but Eades really needs to regain his velocity and start missing bats, because pitching to contact with low 90 mph FB, will result to contact with bad consequences for his teams.
     
    And what did Eades do this year? He made a liar out of me and was much more effective. His peripherals were practically the same (16.4% vs 16.6% K%, 7.8% vs 8.5% BB% and even 0.83 vs 0.79 GO:FO) he did have a considerable decrease in WHIP (1.239 vs 1.481) half of which could be accounted from a normalization of the BABIP (.291 vs .323). However he translated that into results (3.11 ERA vs 5.14 and 3.48 FIP vs 4.44) beyond what a better defense behind him could bring. Will be interesting to see whether the tentativeness went away and he started pounding the strike zone and/or whether his stuff improved. Definitely someone to keep and eye on in 2016
     
    Likely 2016 path: In the Chattanooga Rotation
     
    ETA: 2017
     
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40)
    DOB: 4/9/1997; Age: 18
    Positions: 2B/SS/3B/LF
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 5'10", Weight: 155 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 11/5/2013
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie GCL (2015)
     
    Arraez who rounded out the prospect list last season was signed in the November of 2013 from Venezuela. He made the jump from the Dominican and the DSL (where he had a phenomenal for the league .833 OPS) to the United States and GCL with ease. He hit .309/.377/.391 with an impressive 19 to 10 BB:K ratio. He stole 8 bases and was caught in another 8 times. He flashed signed of gap power hitting 15 doubles and 1 tripe in 233 PAs, but he is not a power hitter. Plate discipline is one of the hardest skills to learn and Arraez has it, plus his contact tool is good. This is a great combination for a middle infielder, and Arraez looks like he will settle at second base, where he is average to above average with the glove, turning 19 double plays last season.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and at Elizabethton in June
     
    ETA: 2019
     
     
    23. Engelb Vielma ss (20)
    DOB: 6/22/1994; Age: 21
    Positions: SS
    Bats: S, Throws: R
    Height: 5'11", Weight: 150 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 9/4/2011
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2015)
     
    Vielma is a very interesting player who could be ranked higher. The Venezuelan signed by the Twins in 2011 and has been moving really quickly in the organization. His glove is really great and he has excellent instinct for the game. When I saw him play for the first time during the 2014 Spring Training, I wrote this for him:
     
    This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization. He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy. Like it is an everyday kind of thing. Looks like his contact tool is getting better. He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm. And he has room to grow.
     
    And I still stand behind that assessment. The one thing that bothers me about Vielma is not his bat (we will get to the bat in a second;) it is his occasional lapses in concentration that result in silly mistakes on the field and on the base paths. This is the single reason he is ranked that low in my list. I am still very high on Vielma and I think that he has the potential of an All-Star shortstop. Let's not forget that this is the position that has a player with a career .666 OPS in the Hall of Fame. Not that I am comparing Ozzie Smith's glove to Vielma's, but their bats are comparable. Vielma hit .270/.321/.306 this season at Fort Myers which at first sight is about the same .266/.313/.323, if not worse, than he did in Cedar Rapids in 2014, until someone looks below the slash lines: Vielma was the youngest position player at the Miracle team and the Miracle team slash line was .246/.319/.318, so he made better contact than the average. Power is not his strong suit, so looking at SLG% is misleading. If you look at component numbers, like wRC+, he had 93 in 2015 vs 84 in 2014. He is also maturing as a player taking advantage of his speed. He will not walk (7% BB%) or strikeout (14.2% K%) but will make contact and run. He had 24 sacrifices last season, and most of them (18) on the ground. He stole a career high 35 bases (but was caught 12 times). Definitely Vielma is on the right track, but I still need to see just a little bit more from him. Playing at AA might tell us a lot about his maturity.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Starting Shortstop at AA Chattanooga, on the 40 man roster in the post-season.
     
    ETA: 2017
     
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--)
    DOB: 1/14/1998; Age: 17
    Positions: CF
    Bats: L, Throws: L
    Height: 5'11", Weight: 170 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2014
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie DSL (2015)
     
    Jean Carlos Arias was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic the summer of 2014. In his first professional season in the DSL he hit .311/.378/.537 with 18 BB, 30 K, 13 2B, 9 3B and 2 HRs in 189 PAs. He was 11/17 in stolen bases. That .914 OPS is not quite at Miguel Sano level (Sano hit .344/.463/.547 at age 17 in the DSL), but cannot be ignored in a league where the average OPS is .680. His wOBA was .425 and wRC+ 151, which are also on the ridiculous level. Reports from the Dominican have the 17 year old Arias, who batted at the number 3 spot for the DSL Twins, is a true 5-tool Centerfielder, which would need to be cofirmed once he starts play in the US, but his numbers cannot be ignored. One additional thing of note: Arias destroyed RHPs at the rate of .330/.390/.568.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and the starting Centerfielder at the GCL
     
    ETA: 2020
     
    21. Rainis Silva C (24)
    DOB: 3/20/1996; Age: 19
    Positions: C
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 7/9/2013
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015)
     
    The Venezuelan Catcher was signed by the Twins as a 16 year old in 2012 for $175,000. I have not seen enough of John Ryan Murphy or John Hicks yet, but other than those 2 potentially, Silva is the most polished receiver in the Twins' organization. He could catch a major league staff today. The problem is his bat. He was fast tracked by the Twins moving from the DSL to A in just 3 seasons. It is very encouraging to see that his bat has improved with every stop: .539 OPS in the DSL in 2013, .636 OPS in the GCL in 2014, .635 OPS in Elizabethton and .572 OPS in Cedar Rapids in 2015. Improvement? This looks pretty horrible. Here are a couple of other numbers: .367/.406/.533 in Elizabethton and .333/.333/.556 in Cedar Rapids. Those are his slash lines last season against LHP. He absolutely destroys left hand pitching and this is an improvement this season. He hit lefties at a .217/.254/.267 pace in GCL and at a .222/.294/.244 pace in the DSL the previous 2 seasons, which means that he is learning and adjusting, an incredibly encouraging sign for an organization not that deep in future Catchers. Why is he not ranked higher? He has to prove that he is not a liability against RHP. If his OPS against righties was closer to .700 than .500 (which is the case now,) his glove is good enough to propel him to top 10 prospect conversation. Not there yet.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Likely start the season at Cedar Rapids and, depending on his performance and the Twins' Draft, a move to Fort Myers by at least mid-season is a good bet. I will not be surprised if the Twins have him start the season at Fort Myers.
     
    ETA: 2018
     
     
     
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
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