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Thrylos

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  1. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    couple days ago, in preparation for the 2013 MLB Draft, I listed 129 names of College Pitchers who will get drafter in that draft and several of them will be drafted by the Minnesota Twins. In this second segment, I am listing the names of 114 College position players who will be drafted. The Twins will likely draft several of them.
     
    Will they redraft LJ Mazzilli who decided to not sign and return to University of Connecticut for his Senior year? Maybe, but not as high as they did last season, because with a below par performance, his stock really fell recently. The Twins do like players with "bloodlines" and in addition to Mazzilli, thee are a few players whose last names are pretty famous. (Craig Biggio's son, is a High School Senior, also eligible for this draft, but it is a different story.)
     
    You can find all the 2013 MLB Draft content in this site here.
     
    Without further ado, here is the list, alphabetically:
     
     
    Brenton Allen, OF, UCLA
    Zach Alvord 3B Tampa CC
    Mario Amaral C Miami-Dade CC
    Tim Anderson SS East Central Community College
    Michael Arencibia OF Tallahassee CC
    Pat Biondi, OF, Michigan
    Aaron Blair OF Fresno St
    Krey Bratsen OF Texas A&M
    Colin Bray OF Faulkner
    Jake Bray, 3B Feather River
    Aaron Brown, OF/1B/LHP Pepperdine
    Jaycob Brugman OF Brigham Young
    Kris Bryant 3B/1B San Diego
    Elliot Caldwell, OF South Carolina Community College
    Victor Caratini C Miami-Dade CC
    Dale Carey, OF, Miami
    Shon Carson, OF, South Carolina
    Kyle Carter, OF Miami-Dade CC
    Connor Castellano 2B Santa Fe CC
    Danny Collins, 3B Troy
    Chase Compton, 1B Louisiana-Lafayette
    Ryan Cordell, OF Liberty
    Conor Costello OF Navarro
    Omar Cotto, OF USC
    Johnny Coy, 1B Wichita State
    Dustin DeMuth, 3B Indiana
    Drew Dosch, 3B Youngstown State
    Hunter Dozier, 3B/SS, Stephen F. Austin State
    Jeff Driskel OF Florida
    Jordan Dunatov, OF Central Arizona College
    Sean Dwyer OF Florida Gulf Coast
    Kaiana Eldredge, 2B, Kansas
    Adam Engel, OF Louisville
    Phil Ervin OF Samford
    Kyle Farmer, SS Georgia
    Jacob Felts C Texas
    Dominic Ficociello 1B/3B Arkansas
    Johnny Field OF Arizona
    Eric Filia-Snyder, OF UCLA
    Billy Flamion, OF, Grossmont
    Adam Frazier SS Mississippi St.
    Mitchell Garver, C New Mexico
    Ryan Gebhardt OF Louisiana Tech
    Conrad Gregor 1B Vanderbilt
    Trey Griffin, OF Tennessee Wesleyan
    Cody Gunter, 3B Grayson County CC
    Conner Hale 3B Manatee CC
    Jordan Hankins, 2B Austin Peay
    Ryon Healy, 1B/C, Oregon
    Tyler Horan, 1B/OF Virginia Tech
    Mott Hyde SS Georgia Tech
    CK Irby, OF/RHP Samford
    Eric Jagielo 3B/OF Notre Dame
    JaCoby Jones 2B/OF LSU
    Kevin Jordan, OF, Wake Forest
    Aaron Judge OF Fresno State
    Lonnie Kauppila SS Stanford
    Tony Kemp 2B/OF Vanderbilt
    Jared King, OF Kansas State
    Andrew Knapp, C California
    Kevin Koziol, SS, Parkland
    Tyler Kuresa, 1B UC Santa Barbara
    Hunter Lockwood, C Weatherford CC
    Dylan LaVelle, 3B Everett CC
    Michael Lorenzen OF/RHP Cal State Fullerton
    Tyler Marincov, OF North Florida
    Jamal Martin OF Santa Fe CC
    Trey Mancini, 1B Notre Dame
    Jacob May, SS/OF Coastal Carolina
    LJ Mazzilli 2B U Conn
    Joel McKeithan, 3B Vanderbilt
    Jason Monda, OF Washington State
    Colin Moran 3B North Carolina
    Matt Moynihan OF Texas
    Spencer Navin, C Vanderbilt
    Case Nixon C Alabama
    Adam Nelubowich, 3B, Washington State
    Kelly Norris-Jones, C, Illinois
    Michael O’Neill, OF Michigan
    Daniel Palka OF/1B Georgia Tech
    Jordan Parr, 3B, Illinois
    Mark Payton OF Texas
    DJ Peterson 3B New Mexico
    Chad Pinder, SS/3B, Virginia Tech
    Zack Powers 3B Florida
    Vickash Ramjit 1B Florida
    James Ramsay OF South Florida
    Brian Ragira 1B Stanford
    Matt Reida SS Kentucky
    Hunter Renfroe, C/OF, Mississippi State
    Raph Rhymes, OF LSU
    JT Riddle, 2B Kentucky
    Drake Roberts 2B Navarro
    James Roberts, SS, Southern California
    Matt Roberts, C North Carolina
    Angel Rosa SS Alcorn State
    Tyler Ross, C LSU
    David Schuknecht C Riverside
    Michael Suiter, OF, Kansas
    Christian Summers SS Angelo State
    Daniel Sweet OF Florida
    Ryan Tella, OF, Auburn
    Brandon Thomas, OF Georgia Tech
    Brandon Trinkwon, SS/2B UC Santa Barbara
    Stuart Turner C Ole Miss
    John Underwood 1B Palm Beach State
    Josh Van Meter, SS, Norwell
    Erich Weiss, 2B/SS Texas
    Conor Williams, OF Utah Community College
    Trey Williams 3B College of the Canyons
    Austin Wilson OF Stanford
    Kyle Wren, OF Georgia Tech
    Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Vanderbilt
    Jimmy Yezzo, IF, Delaware
     
     


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  2. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Every year about this time, I present profiles of College and High School players that the Minnesota Twins might draft. Last year, I identified pitching as a high need, so I presented the profiles of 23 pitchers, all potential Twins' draft picks. The Twins, properly, went ahead and picked a High School outfielder instead. I will be doing something different this year. Like past years, I will continue to present mini-profiles of every single Twins' draftee (you can find the 2012 profiles here) but instead of profiling 20some players that the Twins might pick, I will name several players (in the hundreds) that will be drafted.
     
    The thought behind this is that everyone knows the 4-5 players who make up the pool of talent that the Minnesota Twins will select with the 4th overall picks (for a refresher, look at the aggregate mock draft picks); however, there is little information about players in later rounds. I hope that this fills that gap somewhat. I am dividing it into 4 parts: College Pitchers, College Position Players, High School Pitchers and High School Position Players. This is the first part and includes College Pitchers. One thing that we learned from the 2012 draft, the first one under the new CBA, is that the new rules favor selecting College picks. Thus, I am certain that the 129 names I am presenting here will all get selected sometime in this draft and that the Twins will select 4-5 of them.
     
    This is just an naming names list; in the near future, additional one liners of information (micro scouting reports) will be added about each player, after I complete all four installments. I know it is somewhat of a huge undertaking, but it is fun.
     
    Here are 129 College pitcher names everyone should know before the 2013 MLB Draft, alphabetically:
     
    Tyler Alexander, LHP Carroll
    Chris Anderson RHP Jacksonville
    Mark Appel RHP Stanford
    Barrett Astin RHP Arkansas
    Alex Balog RHP San Fransisco
    Carson Baranik RHP Miami-Dade CC
    Tyler Barnette, RHP Charlotte
    Cal Becker, RHP, Palm Beach State
    Kirby Bellow LHP Texas
    Aaron Blair, RHP Marshall
    Matt Boyd LHP Oregon State
    Justin Brantley, RHP, Siena
    Hunter Brothers, RHP, Lipscomb
    Aaron Brown, LHP Pepperdine
    Shane Carle, RHP, Long Beach State
    Dan Child, RHP Oregon State
    Harrison Cooney, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast
    Dace Kime RHP Louisville
    Jonathon Crawford RHP Florida
    Brady Corless, RHP Salt Lake
    Dylan Covey RHP San Diego
    Josh Dezse RHP/1B Ohio State
    Eric Dorsch, RHP, Kent State
    Calvin Drummond RHP Arizona Christian
    Ryan Eades RHP LSU
    Erick Eck, RHP Wofford
    Kent Emanuel LHP North Carolina
    Zane Evans, RHP/C Georgia Tech
    Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech
    Kyle Finnegan, RHP Texas State
    Nathan Foriest LHP Middle Tennessee State
    Scott Frazier RHP Pepperdine
    Dakota Freese, RHP Des Moines Area CC
    David Garner RHP Michigan State
    David Gates RHP Howard
    Daniel Gibson LHP Florida
    Zachary Godley P
    Marco Gonzales LHP Gonzaga
    Alex Gonzalez RHP Oral Roberts
    Nicholas Gonzalez P South Florida
    Trevor Gott, RHP Kentucky
    Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma
    Chad Green, RHP, Louisville
    Matt Grimes, RHP Georgia Tech
    Jerad Grundy, LHP, Kentucky
    Alex Haines, LHP Seton Hill
    Michael Howard LHP Baylor
    Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma State
    CK Irby RHP Samford
    Ricky Jacquez, RHP Central Arizona
    Jake Johansen, RHP Dallas Baptist
    Chase Johnson RHP Cal Poly
    Christian Jones LHP Oregon
    Jon Keller RHP Tampa
    Tanner Kiest, RHP Riverside
    Dace Kime, RHP Louisville
    Keenan Kish RHP Florida
    Erich Knab, RHP, Spartanburg Methodist
    Corey Knebel RHP Texas
    Forrest Koumas, RHP North Carolina
    Austin Kubitza RHP Rice
    Alex Lakatos, RHP, Michigan
    Randy LeBlanc RHP Tulane
    Tyler Linehan LHP Fresno State
    Corey Littrell, LHP Kentucky
    Ben Lively, RHP, Central Florida
    Sean Manaea LHP Indiana State
    Johnny Magliozzi, RHP, Florida
    Trey Masek RHP Texas Tech
    Kenny Mathews, LHP Riverside
    Mike Mayers, RHP Ole Miss
    Jake McCasland RHP New Mexico
    Kurt McCune RHP LSU
    Andrew Mitchell RHP TCU
    Albert Minnis, LHP, Wichita State
    Sam Moll LHP Memphis
    Spencer Navin C Vanderbilt
    Case Nixon C Alabama
    Dillon Overton LHP Oklahoma
    Paul Paez, LHP Rio Hondo
    Jordan Patterson OF South Alabama
    TJ Pecoraro RHP Vanderbilt
    Nick Petree, RHP Missouri State
    Philip Pfeifer LHP Vanderbilt
    Adam Plutko RHP UCLA
    Kayden Porter, RHP Southern Nevada CC
    Cody Reed, LHP Northwest Mississippi
    Tony Rizzotti RHP Tulane
    Nic Pivetta, RHP New Mexico
    Drake Roberts 2B Navarro
    Angel Rosa SS Alcorn State
    Nick Rumbelow, RHP LSU
    Javier Salas RHP Miami
    Lukas Schiraldi, RHP Navarro CC
    Brad Schreiber, RHP Purdue (Twins' 2012 40th round pick)
    Jimmie Sherfy, RHP Oregon
    Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada
    John Simms RHP Rice
    Tyler Skulina, RHP Kent State
    Dan Slania RHP Notre Dame
    DeAndre Smelter, RHP Georgia Tech
    Myles Smith, RHP, Lee CC
    DJ Snelten, LHP Minnesota
    Ryne Stanek RHP Arkansas
    Teddy Stankiewicz RHP Seminole State JC
    Gandy Stubblefield RHP Texas A&M
    Colby Suggs RHP Arkansas
    Stephen Tarpley, LHP Scottsdale CC
    Trey Teakell, RHP, TCU
    Jeff Thompson, RHP, Louisville
    Andrew Thurman RHP UC Irvine
    Justin Topa RHP Long Island U Brooklyn
    Josh Uhen, RHP Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    Nick Vander Tuig RHP UCLA
    AJ Vanegas RHP Stanford
    Austin Voth, RHP Washington
    Konner Wade RHP Arizona
    Michael Wagner, RHP San Diego
    Bobby Wahl RHP Ole Miss
    Billy Waltrip LHP Oklahoma
    Zach Weiss, RHP, UCLA
    Ben Wetzler LHP Oregon State
    David Whitehead, RHP, Elon
    Karsten Whitson RHP Florida
    Trevor Williams RHP Arizona State
    Tom Windle LHP Minnesota
    Cole Wiper RHP Oregon
    Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Missouri
    Kevin Ziomek LHP Vanderbilt
     


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  3. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    The 2013 MLB Draft is less than a month away (it takes place from June 6th until June 8th.) The Minnesota Twins have the 4th pick this season, and there is a lot of disagreement (as is with every draft in every season in every sport) about who is the best pick for them and who they will select. And 'tis the season for mock drafts, so I am presenting the picks experts (and non-experts) think the Twins will make, and see whether there is a consensus. I am listing all of the mock drafts to date since late March. If a particular writer made multiple mock drafts, only the latest version is shown. If you know of any additional mock drafts, please let me know.
     
    The picks are presented by mock draft date, mock draft place & name of the writer (with links to their web pages) and the name, school and position of the Twins' likely draftee. Regardless whether the Twins will pick any of these players, all these players are "names to know" for the 2013 draft:
     
    May:
     
    5/11/13: MLB Draft Site (ebowser18) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
    5/10/13: Sports Illustrated (Dave Perkin) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA)
    5/9/13: Baseball America (Jim Callis) : Kohl Steward, RHP, St. Pius X High (TX)
    5/9/13: My MLB Draft : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA)
    5/9/13: 85% Sports (Eugene Tierney) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University
    5/7/13: Scout.com (Kiley McDaniel) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA)
    5/7/13: Bleacher Report (Tim Rapp) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA)
    5/7/13: MLB Unique: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA)
    5/6/13: MLB Draft Insider (Chris Crawford) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA)
    5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Adam Wells) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University
    5/6/13: Bleacher Report (Mike Rosenbaum) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego
    5/2/13: Crawfish Boxes (Anthony Boyer) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego
    5/2/13: MLB Draft Prospects (Matt Garrioch) : Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University
    5/1/13: Boyd's Bets (Jim Boyd) : Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego
     
    April:
     
    4/28/13: Through The Fence (Dan Kirby) : Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA)
    4/18/13: Minor League Rundown : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA)
    4/18/13: Sports City: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
    4/13/13: BH Picks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
    4/12/13: The Baseball Draft Report: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High (GA)
    4/11/13: Big League Futures (Kevin R) : Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
    4/2/13 : Big League Futures (Matt Grabusky) : Austin Meadows, OF/1B, Grayson HS (GA)
     
    March:
     
    3/23/13: Minor League Ball (John Sickels) : Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon HS (OK)
     
     
    Based on this there are 5 names (alphabetically: Bryant, Frazier, Manaea, Meadows, Stanek) that rotate in most of the mock drafts as the Twins' pick. John Sickels and Jim Callis made different picks (HS C Denney and HS P Steward, respectively.) I do like Sickels' pick because Catcher is a position of need in the Twnis' organization at this point. Also, the conventional consensus wisdom is that RHPs Mark Appel (Stanford) and Johnathan Gray (Oklahoma) will be taken with the first 2 picks and will not be available for the Twins.
     
    I will probably update this at the end of the month as the draft nears.
     
     
     


    http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

  4. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    For a few years now, I have been doing a feature, pretty much on a monthly basis, which was called "Who is hot in the Twins' minors" (you can see last seasons' versions here.) This included a list of the best players in the Twins' system, based on cumulative performance year to date, broken down by position.
     
    I am giving it a new twist this year: I am listing the best team of 25 players in the Twins' organization, by position based on cumulative performance. This is listed as a 25-man roster squad with starters and bench and a rotation an a pen. No batting order. Ages, handedness and team are also listed along with the stats. This is the first one and I will be doing those every 3-4 weeks.
     
    This first version of the Twins' top 25 in the minors is dominated by players from the Fort Myers Miracle and Cedar Rapids Kernels teams that dominate their leagues, but there is a good representation from the Rochester Red Wings and New Britain Rock Cats squads. This is pretty small sample size and the results can be skewed, especially on the pitching side. And of course there are some surprises.
     
    The 2013 Twins minors' best 25 are:
     
    Starters:
     
    C - Josmil Pinto (RHB, 24, AA) : .294/.400/.544, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 80 PA
    1B - Chris Colabello (RHB, 29 AAA) : .328/.377/.642, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 77 PA
    2B - Eddie Rosario (SHB, 21, A+) : .338/.368/.500, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 87 PA
    3B - Miguel Sano (RHB, 20, A+) : .384/.439/.740, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 82 PA
    SS - AJ Petersen (RHB, 24, A+) : .345/.418/.448, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, 68 PA
    OF - Byron Buxton (RHB, 19, A) : .404/.514/.614, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 7 SB, 70 PA
    OF - Clete Thomas (LHB, 29, AAA): .347/.448/.571, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, 58 PA
    OF - Danny Ortiz (LHB, 23, AA): .313/.356/.582, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 73 PA
    DH - Mike Gonzales (LHB, 25, A+) : .238/.338/.476, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 77 PA
     
    Bench:
     
    C - Kyle Knudson (RHB, 25, A+) : .432/.512/.649, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 43 PA
    IF - Nate Hanson (RHB, 26, AA/AAA) : .317/.405/.429, 2 HR, 11 RBI
    1B - DJ Hicks (LHB, 23, A): .310/.385/.586, 3 HR, 12 RBI
    OF - JD Williams (SHB, 22, A): .270/.429/.514, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 SB, 49 PA
    UT - Matt Koch (RHB, 24, A+) : .405/.490/.548, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 49 PA
     
     
    Rotation:
     
    Tyler Duffey (RHP, 22, A) : 2-1, 2.29 ERA, 3 GS, 19.2 IP, 3 BB, 17 K, 0.661 WHIP (.184 BABIP), 7.78 K/9, 5.67 K/BB
    DJ Baxendale (RHP, 22, A+) : 2-0, 1.04 ERA, 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 0.750 WHIP (.200 BABIP), 7.79 K/9, 5 K/BB
    Alex Meyer (RHP, 23, AA) : 1-0 , 1.69 ERA, 3 GS, 16 IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 1.250 WHIP (.317 BABIP), 10.69 K/9, 2.71 K/BB
    Kyle Gibson (RHP, 25, AAA) : 0-1, 4.43 ERA, 4 GS, 20.1 IP, 1.279 WHIP (.321 BABIP), 8.41 K/9, 2.71 K/BB
    Andew Albers (LHP, 27, AAA): 0-0, 3.09 ERA, 3 GS, 11.2 IP, 1.286 WHIP (.314 BABIP), 8.49 K/9, 2.75 K/BB
     
    Bullpen:
     
     
    Corey Williams (LHP, 22, A+) : 2.08 ERA, 7 G, 8.2 IP, 4 Sv, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.692 WHIP (.231 BABIP), 3.12 K/9 INF K/BB
    Adrian Salcedo (RHB, 22, A+): 4.82 ERA, 6 G, 9.1 IP, 0 BB, 11 K, 1.179 WHIP (.407 BABIP) 10.61 K/9, INF K/BB
    Caleb Thielbar (LHP, 26, AAA) : 3.68 ERA, 8 G, 14.2 IP, 2 BB, 18 K, 1.364 WHIP (.405 BABIP), 11.05 K/9, 9 K/BB
    Steven Gruver (LHP, 24, A) : 0.64 ERA, 4 G, 1 GS, 14 IP, 1 Sv, 2 BB, 16 K, 0.714 WHIP (.258 BABIP), 10.29 K/9, 8 K/BB
    Tyles Jones (RHB, 23, A) : 0.96 ERA, 5 G, 9.1 IP, 2 Sv, 2 BB, 11 K, 0.750 WHIP (.217 BABIP), 10.61 K/9, 5.50 K/BB
    Ryan O'Rourke (LHP, 25, A+) : 0.00 ERA, 5 G, 9 1P, 1 BB, 7 K, 0.333 WHIP (.100 BABIP), 7 K/9, 7 K/BB
    Zach Jones (RHB, 22, A+) : 1.00 ERA, 7 G, 9 IP, 5 Sv, 2 BB, 13 K, 0.667 WHIP (.176 BABIP), 12 K/9, 4 K/BB
     
     
     
     
     
     


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  5. Thrylos
    Last season, I started a Random Twins Thoughts series that included a post a week every Tuesday. I was told that people actually liked those and missed them when I stopped, so I will continue them this season. I decided to change it up a bit this season and do it a bit more randomly. This first one is after the Twins competed their first series of their young 2013 season, hosting the Detroit Tigers who are the favorite to win (at least) the AL Central in the 2013 season. I will try to coincide these thought posts with the end of Twins' series. As previously, the content will be on the major league team, as well as the minor league team; I will also include additional factoid and links to Twins' stuff, like last season. Here is the first installment:
     
     

    After Wednesday's win, it was the first time the Twins were at .500 after the 2010 season.
    Good to see them winning the opening series 2-1 at home over the AL Central favorites. If the Twins win at home, play close to .500 ball on the road, and win over the other AL Central teams, great things will happen.
    I think that a lot of fans were surprised by the strong showings of Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. From what I saw and reported last week from Fort Myers, I was hopeful for both Correia and Pelfrey. This is in contrast to the 3 pitchers who opened the 2012 season in Baltimore: Carl Pavano allowed 4 runs (all earned) in 7 IP, Fransisco Liriano 6 (5 Earned) in 4 IP; Anthony Swarzak did a good job with 1 run in 5 IP.
    Great to see the comeback by the Twins' bottom of the order last night against the Tigers' committee of closers. Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Wilkin Ramirez, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar were the participants and it is clear that this comeback might had not happened if the Twins gave Drew Butera a position on the 2013 25-man roster. Major kudos to Joe Vavra who aggressively (unlike his predecessors Steve Liddle and Scott Ullger) waved in Dozier for the winning run. It great (and about time) to see the Twins play aggressively and fight hard on the diamond.
    Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks have both been struggling at the plate (and they both got their first base hits of the season in the Twins' 8th inning), but the season is still young. The Twins do not have many other Centerfielder options, but I can see Ramirez taking some PAs from Parmelee, especially against LHPs
    The Twins sold only 19,000 season tickets for 2013, down 3,000 from 2012, which was down 2,000 from 2011. Not winning does not sell tickets, but the revenue loss due to loss of additional non-season ticket attendance is higher than that due to the loss of season tickets. Still the Twins have sold as many season tickets as the total average home attendance of three other MLB teams in 2012: The Astros (19,848), Indians (19,797) and the Rays (19,255). The latter are the poster boys of the exception of the aforementioned rule that winning sells tickets. A team prime for moving to a more baseball-friendly place.
    Today is the opening day for all full season Twins' minor league affiliates (International League, AAA, Rochester Red Wings, Eastern League, AA, New Britain Rock Cats, Florida State League, high A, Fort Myers Miracle and the newest affiliate, Midwest League, A, Cedar Rapids Kernels.)
    Speaking of the Kernels, if you are interested in following them, you should bookmark the Knuckleballs Blog, where Jim Crikket (a total Kernels' insider) will follow them from Cedar Rapids with great original content like this. And even if you don't care about the Twins' minor league affiliates (shame on you), you should bookmark them, because the guys and gals of Knuckleballs offer some of the greatest independent blogging coverage of the Twins (including some great game time chats as well as awesome weekly podcasts.)
    Since we are talking about independent Twins' blogs, make sure you follow The Twins' Fan from Afar, for New Britain Rock Cats coverage, k-bro's baseball blog for a kinder gentler side of Twins coverage and her trademark paper dolls, Peanuts from Heaven, for great lighter coverage of Twins and Twins Trivia, for an amazing historic perspective of the Twins. Interesting to see how few independent blogs are left in the Twins' blogosphere these days, but content consolidation and aggregation by the big paying sites (like ESPN and SI) and more open access to bloggers by teams (which cuts down on independent and open views) has becoming more and more mainstream. Will be interesting to see how this will end up. And this is totally reflected on my blogroll on the left side here. Interesting to see how few of those Twins blogs are now still standing alone.
    On the non-independent blog side, Harold Sinker has returned with vengeance over at Section 219, the new kid on the block, Mike Berardino (who is a delight to read, btw,) has totally revived the Twins Now blog on the St Paul paper, and as always the super-bloggers and the dozens of contributors at the Twins Daily provide tons of current and original Twins' content and stimulating discussion.
    RF Oswaldo Arcia (age 21) is the youngest player to start on opening day for the Rochester Red Wings in the Twins' era of the team. He celebrated the occasion with a long 2-run Home Run at dead Center Field in the top of 6th inning at Buffalo.
    This article on Miguel Sano by David Dorsey the veteran baseball writer of the Fort Myers News-Press, is an absolute must read for any Twins' fan.
    Food for thought: Tomorrow (4/5) is the 60th birthday of the man, Andy Macphail, who build the twice World Champion Twins teams more than 21 seasons ago. He was born in the same year as the current Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan who was promoted to the post in 1994.
    Former Twins' opening day starter, Carl Pavano, is facing further life-threatening complications due to his spleen injury. Wishing him the best and a quick recovery.
    The Twins' product of the week is the brand new this season MLB Minnesota Twins 2013 Batting Practice 59Fifty Baseball Cap, 734, White/Redhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJDK0. Arguably, it is much better looking than the other new this year Batting Practice Cap, in Red, White & Navyhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B00B7UJEFE that reminds me of Montreal Expos, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

     


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  6. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    I think that it is pretty safe to say that nobody expects the Minnesota Twins to be close to contending in 2013. As a matter of fact, a lot of fans and experts would find the new Accuscore predictions that were released today and show the 2013 Twins with a predicted record of 72-90, optimistic.
     
    I usually do not try to predict the way the Twins will finish with an analysis. The last time I did it was in the aftermath of the Santana trade and before the 2008 season, when the sky was supposedly falling (you can find that analysis in parts: Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.) My quite unorthodox calculations predicted the team to have an 89-73 record, while everyone was predicting a sub .500 record. That season, as in this season, the major breaking point is Starting Pitching.
     
    When I was asked before Spring Training by Cardinal70.com in their playing pepper series, my prediction (gut feeling) was that the Twins will compile an 86-76 record and will be competitive in 2013. Additionally, I recently noted the good energy that I saw this team have in Fort Myers, which makes me optimistic for 2013. Add to this, this excellent analysis by Phil Macky at ESPN 1500 based on individual projected performances that project the Twins to win 80 games in 2013, and it was about time to look at the possibilities formally.
     
    I looked at it in 2 different ways and this post is part one, looking at the possibilities of the new starting rotation. The second way will be a WAR- and RAR-based analysis that will be presented some time this weekend or so, otherwise this post will be a monster.
     
    This analysis is pretty unorthodox but pretty close to what I did before the 2008 season. I am looking at the differences of the Twins' rotation in 2013 vs the Twins' rotation in 2012 (Starting pitching is the driver of the Twins' performance folks... They led the AL Central in position player WAR by a lot, 25% ahead of the second team, in 2012.)
     
    I am looking at the following two measures for each starting pitcher in 2012:
     
     

    Bill James' Game Score (which is what I used to tabulate my Spring Training Dashboards, and use the same convensions for above average, below average and average as there; explanation is here)
    Earned runs a pitcher allowed in each game
    Then I tabulate the number games that each pitcher had game scores better than, worse than or average; and the number of games that each pitcher allowed 2 runs or less, 3 to 4 runs and 5 runs or more. (Note: The Twins scored about 4.3 runs a game, so =< 2 runs is high probability or win and 3-4 runs good probability for a win.)
    The 2012 Twins' starters used for the calculations are Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis
    For the 2013 Twins' startes I used the 2012 numbers for Correia and Worley and the 2011 for Pelfrey and Harden
    I assume that the rest of the rotation in 2013 (Diamond, De Vries, Deduno etc) will perform as in 2012.

     
    Here are the results by pitcher:
     


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    It is obvious that the 2013 rotation had many better games in 2012 and would have kept the Twins competitive in most of their games (4 runs or less) than the 2012 rotation. But how much?
     
     

    The 2013 rotation had above average game scores 48.3% of the time vs 23% for the 2012 rotation
    The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 42.7% of games vs 26% for the 2012 rotation
    The 2013 rotation allowed less than 2 runs in 82.2% of games vs 61.2% for the 2012 rotation

     
    What does this mean in wins for the 2013 Twins?
     
     

    In 2012 the Twins starting pitchers won 41 and lost 72 games
    Extrapolating based on above average game scores the 2013 rotation will win an additional 23 games for a total of 89 wins
    based on less than 2 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 26 games for a total of 92 wins
    based on less than 4 runs allowed 2013 rotation will win an additional 15 games for a total of 81 wins
    These 3 average to 87 wins, giving the 2013 Twins a projected 87-79 record.

     
    So here you have it. These Twins can compete in 2013.
     


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    Next: WAR and RAR-based analysis
  7. Thrylos
    Originally published in full with 56 pictures at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----

    Like all good things that have an expiration date, the Twins' 2013 Spring Training had to end today. Tomorrow the games mean everything as the Twins are opening the season in a frigid Target Field against the Detroit Tigers.
     
    As in the last few years, I attended Spring Training (you can find all my 2013 Spring Training posts here) and took several pictures. This is pretty much my photo diary without comments (but in one picture). It is in chronological order. Feel free to ask any questions about these pictures here and I will answer them.
     
    Small (but important) print:


    All images are: Copyright 2013, The Tenth Inning Stretch. Feel free to use them, for non-profit situations, with a. appropriate attribution of the copyright as mentioned above and b. a link to this post. If you are a commercial entity, or want to use them for profit situations, feel free to drop me a line if you would like to use any of this.
     
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    -----
    For space and bandwidth considerations, only part of the photo diary is re-posted here. Feel free to continue at The Tenth Inning Stretch for the rest of the photos, including photos of the Twins' top prospects and Mauer's HR against Toronto. 56 photos in all.
  8. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    I arrived North a tad too late from Fort Myers last night, so I did not quite had time to compile my last Spring Training report, so here it goes:
     
     

    Mainly a drills day over at the Minor League fields yesterday with no games or scrimmages schedules. Interesting to see Ray Olmedo, who was cut earlier in the morning participate in drills with the position players who will likely stay at Fort Myers for extended spring training and get assigned to the Rookie leagues. Most of them are young Latin American players and I suspect that Ray was helping with the translation.
    Back at Hammond Stadium Mike Pelfrey pitched a very good game (the only earned run should had been unearned because Morneau should have been charged with an error when misplayed what would have been the third out of the inning.) When I look at the return of someone from injury I look at 2 things: Velocity of fastball and command of the breaking ball. And Pelfrey had them both. His fastball hit 94 mph (at Hammond so subtract a couple) and he had excellent command of his high 70s curve. He changed speeds effectively, mixed and matched pitches well and provided a good glimpse of why he was considered a top of the rotation prospect for a long time. Good to see him back and I am certain that he will help the Twins this season.
    The only roster battle left is one for two pen spots among three relievers (who may all make it if Liam Hendriks' injured hand proves to be worse than it seems) who severely underperformed and underwhelmed this spring training and all have 40 man roster spots: Alex Burnett, Casey Fien and Trevor Robertson. Robertson (who admittedly has been unlucky this Spring because the ball seemed to bounce the wrong way every time he pitched) had a very sub-par outing yesterday. The main problems were that his fastball velocity was 85-88, with the fast Hammond Stadium radar, that made it flat and hittable and he could not command his breaking ball. As I mentioned above regarding Pelfrey, those 2 things are red flags for me as far as potential injury is concerned. On the other hand, Robertson yesterday said the he felt alright. We shall see. Regardless, with Anthony Swarzak and Tim Wood returning from injuries in a couple weeks, the two relievers who will make the squad will be under the microscope.
    Ecstatic to see Wilkin Ramirez making the club. He has been the most consistent Twins' player with the bat this Spring and his defense was occasionally impressive (including a diving catch today against Baltimore.) He will provide a RH bat with some pop off the bench and potentially a platoon partner for Chris Parmelee at RF. Ramirez is not on the 40-man roster so a transaction needs to take place to open a spot for him. This could be a trade involving Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll (who is practically unnecessary now with the emergence of Eduardo Escobar) or the removal from the 40-man roster of the reliever who loses the battle for the last pen spot or Caleb Thielbar or BJ Hermsen.
    One very hopeful observation for the coming season (and I actually asked others who agreed with me so it is not just me) : The overall energy of the team this Spring seems to be much better that it was last Spring. The mood seems to be much lighter. Players were pretty loose around the batting cages when waiting for others to bat or when were catching the ball at the OF during batting practice, or at the dugout. Even Gardenhire who last Spring was fairly grouchy was cracking jokes and was engaged in conversations with fans. This makes me very hopeful for this set of Twins as far as this season goes. Just a feeling I cannot describe, but it is pretty much there.
    Four games are left now, including the last 3 with the Red Sox in Fort Myers. Byron Buxton's guest star appearance will be the talk of the day tomorrow, while the next order of business will be the appointing of the opening day starter. As far as I am concerned I think that it will be either Vance Worley or Kevin Correia depending on their next appearance (or Worley's next appearance) so we will know the earliest tomorrow.
    Another Spring comes to the end and another season is coming to be. Let's hope it is better than the last one and the Twins sweep Detroit in the first series to make a strong statement as far as the division is concerned.

  9. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Today the Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays 14-5 at Hammond Stadium with about a week remaining at Spring Training; meanwhile there were AAA vs AA and A+ vs A scrimmages at fields number 2 and 3 on the minor league side. Here are my thoughts and observations of the day
     
     

    A lot of great performances today, including Joe Mauer's 6 RBI day that included a HR at dead center and Aaron Hick's 4 for 4 day, but the performance of the day happened at field number three and was witnessed by about 50 people, including Twins' General Manager Terry Ryan. During the high A vs. A matchup that included stars in the making like Miguel Sano, Byron Braxton, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas etc, a little known 10th round draft pick stole the show. DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8. Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired by a 3-1 ground out. Not a small fit, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison. Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game). Two sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own. I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization. This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play. It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids. Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.)
    Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League. Sandwiched between Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas, at the clean up spot today was Mike Gonzales, the Twins' 9th Round pick in 2008. For the ones not familiar with Gonzales, he has had his up and downs (mostly downs) mainly resulting from lack of discipline and hard time controlling his weight. Last season he played with the Miracle and was mediocre. This would be his make or break season and looks like he will repeat the high A tour to start the season. The 25 year old is in probably the best shape of his career and actually is dwarfing Vargas, if that is possible. I expect a break through season from Gonzales this year.
    Alex Meyer pitched for the AA team against the AAA and the little I got to see him (the A vs high A matchup was the center piece of the day) he looked pretty good with a great fastball and impressive command. Luke Bard who pitched for the Cedar Rapids team also pitched pretty well, but he was eclipsed by Baxendale.
    At the Stadium it was an overcast and very windy day and lots of home runs resulted. PJ Walters got the node for the Twins and he just did not have it today. Plus he ran out of gas pretty quickly. I don't think that the threw anything harder than 80 mph in his last inning. His fastball was clocked at 88-91 in the first innings and this was about 2-3 mph less in actuality because of the Fort Myers radar. He is not ready to start the season in the majors at least as a starter. Just not there yet.
    Brian Duensing was solid other than the home runs and Jared Burton was impressive. I am not sure that Josh Roenicke will make the team; I feel that it is a battle of 2 spots between him, Tim Wood and Jim Pressly and the other two have been better, even though Roenicke had a good appearance today. Since he can pitch multiple innings, maybe will slide in the Swarzak role while he is on the DL. His fastball touched 94 mph and his breaking ball was effective today.
    I have the feeling that Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier are pretty much enshrined as the starting middle infielders and from now until the opening day it is a matter of them to get to know each other. Second day in a row that started in their respective positions.
    Chris Parmelee had another lackadaisical performance. I don't know if he feels that there is no way that he will not make the team, but the level of effort is just not what it should be at this point. Hasty plate appearances and swinging at bad pitches is not the way to make people feel that you deserve a position among the best 13 position players of the Twins.
    More cuts will be coming soon and I think that Ray Olmedo, Brandon Boggs, Jeff Clement, Dan Rohlfing, PJ Walters, Tyler Robertson and maybe one of Casey Fien and Alex Burnett will be it. One week until opening day and the slate should clear pretty quickly.



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  10. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Actually I spent the day at Port Charlotte, watching the Twins beat the Rays; thus, no minor league report today other that the 5 guys (Jason Christian, Nate Hanson, Chris Colabello, Bruce Pugh and Dan Turpen - of Kevin Slowey trade fame) who made the half an hour trip up North to fill in as needed. Here are my thoughts and observations from today:
     
     

    I did not see it, but Scoot Diamond pitched for the AAA Twins' team against the Red Sox' AAA team down at Fort Myers and his line was: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. Not too encouraging.
    A couple notes about the Charlotte Sports Park (the home of the FSL Charlotte Stone Crabs and the Spring Training home of the Rays.) I think that the most parks I visit, the more and more I appreciate Hammond Stadium and the whole complex as a Spring Training venue. Here is one example: The minor league fields in Port Charlotte have an entrance with a door and a guard behind it and they were locked. Also, unlike Hammond stadium, there are cloth barriers on the chain link fences, which make following the action pretty awful. One of the gems of Charlotte Sports Park (and a peak into Hammond Stadium 2014) is the wrap around deck from short left to short right field. A great place to watch the game, esp. sitting on the tables by the Twins' bullpen at Right Center Field. Really looking forward to Hammond Stadium having one of those next Spring Training.
    I came down here for Spring Training with an open mind about Kevin Correia (yes, I know...) and I think that I know what the Twins saw in him. When he hits the lower third of the strike zone he is actually a good pitcher; when he doesn't, he is bad. Today he pitched against what was very close to the Rays' opening day lineup and did alright. His fastball was at 89-91 (the radar there is probably alright, since Price was at 92-95, which is pretty true) and was good at the lower third, but flat and hittable at anything above that. Change and breaking ball were both effective. He pitched much better than Worley did yesterday. I can start warming up to the idea that he will be serviceable for the Twins, but he will be walking a fine line if he needs to have pinpoint control to be serviceable (and he does need that.) On another note, Correia is too slow and deliberate. Not exactly a human rain delay, but pretty close...
    The Twins' four relievers (Tim Wood, Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett and Casey Fien) did a fine job. Wood is an interesting character and reminds me a bit of Jim Hoey physique-wise. He has a bit deception on his movement and short-arms the ball. He hit 94 with his fastball (Perkins did too) and he got swings and misses with his breaking ball. Very energetic guy and one of the few players who still uses chewing tobacco. Interesting to see whether he makes the team and how he will fit in.
    Alex Burnett needed this very badly. This was his only above average appearance in Spring Training (and it came in his seventh outing.) Every thing was working for him, including his fastball that went up to 92. A very good sign, but I am not sure at this point whether it is too late for him to make the team.
    Dan Rohlfing and Wilkin Ramirez continued their great appearances this Spring. Rohlfing started at first base and moved to left field later in the game. I think that his versatility eventually will be valuable to the Twins, but he has to build up on what he achieved this Spring Training and translate it into a good season with the bat at AA. As far as I am concerned, Dan Rohlfing is THE story for the Twins this Spring Training because he pretty much came from nowhere. Nowhere as a career .249/.296/.313 in parts of 2 seasons in AA. Now he has to take the leap.
    At this point and with Darin Mastroianni having a fairly anemic day at the plate plus misplaying a fly ball, I wonder whether Wilkin Ramirez is actually battling Mastroianni for the 4th OF position and not only Drew Butera and Jeff Clement for the last spot on the 25-man roster. He has been really good this Spring, he is a good defender at the corner OF spots, has some pop, has some speed, and has played some Centerfield (albeit last time in 2011.)
    I think that all three starting infielders today (Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar) make the team, with Dozier and Florimon the starters at second and short. What you look in a double play combination is chemistry and these two seem to have it. I just hope that the Twins decide that this is the case and have them play the rest of Spring Training together so they click even better. As far as I am concerned, a cohesive middle infield is key to good defense and I hope that the Twins decide in one and let it be without taking guys in an out like they did the last few years. That would be a recipe for defensive disaster.
    Tomorrow the Twins are playing the Blue Jays in Hammond Stadium and will be interesting to see what a lot of people think is the team to beat in the American League in 2013.



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  11. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    I am officially at Fort Myers, where I will be through Monday, attending Twins' games and checking on the minor leaguers. Unlike last season, when I pretty much presented a photo diary with 20+ images a day and some commentary, this season I will be doing something different: I will be presenting some of my observations and thoughts during the day on both major and minor leaguers, as well as other Spring Training-related items. Of course, I will add a few pictures on each post. I will probably make a couple of picture posts after next week, maybe as a Spring Training retrospect of sorts (since I am taking a ton of pictures this season.)
     
    Today the Twins hosted the Yankees at Hammond Stadium and the AAA team hosted the Red Sox' AAA team on field number 1. Here are my daily thoughts and observations:
     
     

    Happy to be part of the biggest home Spring Training crowd ever for the Twins: a record 8366 people attended the game at Hammond Stadium and it showed it. Standing room only and even that was sold out before the game.
    Speaking of Hammond Stadium, some pretty interesting additions to the ballpark menu include deep fried cheese curds and calamari fingers (both of them at the "party deck" area at short right field.)
    For what is worth: Alex Meyer, Evan Bigley and Oswaldo Arcia were practicing with the Rochester group this morning.
    Speaking of Rochester, I was not really impressed with 3 of the pitching newcomers: Elarton, Lane and Vasquez.
    Got to see Miguel Sano take fielding drills with the New Britain squad. BJ Hermsen was in that group as well, as were Josmil Pinto and Matt Koch. Pinto is not a surprise to start at AA, but if Koch stays there. it will be a pretty big surprise. Likely he is filling for Dan Rohlfing who is with the big boys still.
    Over at the A and lower field, there were major pitching drills going on. Kennys Vargas was on the field at first during those drills, and I would swear that he looks even bigger this season.
    Speaking of pitching drills, back at the big league camp, there was a pretty large one going on this morning. Good to see that Rich Harden was actually participating, but was the only pitcher who did not throw the ball. Both Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak did throw the ball, btw.
    Speaking of Swarzak, he later pitched batting practice to the infielders who were not playing today and he shattered Brian Dozier's bat to about 6 pieces (one of which went towards Swarzak and another popped in the back of the cage; nevertheless it was a large commotion) Pretty good to see Swarzak back; he could be ready be the beginning of the season, but the Twins will put him on the DL.
    Speaking of bats, Dan Rohlfing, it his plate appearance before his home run, sent his flying into the crowd about 6 rows over the Twins' dugout. Large commotion but no injury and a nice souvenir. Dan Rohlfing keeps being the surprise of the Spring as far as I am concerned, because there was a guy from whom nobody expected anything at the beginning of ST and now he is on the Twins' catching prospects map.
    Thoughts about individual performances today:
    The good: Trevor Plouffe was great at the field in several chances and he had solid plate appearances. Good to see him back from his injury. Wilkin Ramirez, who went 3-3 and was hit by a pitch, will make the back up outfielder/last spot on the bench race really interesting. Solid on the plate against major leaguers. I really liked Ryan Pressly. He has an effortless delivery and can dial it up. At this point, I will be surprised if he does not make the team.
    The bad: Vance Worley was all over the place today. I had a chance to watch him pitch both with the Phillies and with their AAA affiliate (IronPigs, which happens to be about 10 miles away from where I life) and he is not the same guy. Not sure what's up, but it is worrisome at this point. He had a bit of success lately when he tried to mix his offerings up, but the first few innings his two seamer was very flat. He probably lost a few ticks as well, since the Hammond Stadium gun had him at 88-91 (got to subtract 2-3 for that gone.) 2 weeks left, he really needs to pick it up. Ray Olmedo was fairly shaky on the field. Bad jumps, miss-judgements and the such. I thought that he had an outside chance at a utility role, but I just do not see it now. Darin Mastroianni was not at his best either. He let a couple balls drop right in front of him for singles during Tyler Robertson's breakdown, which brings us to
    The ugly: Robertson was miss-matched at this game. The ball was coming off his hand flat when he was throwing the sinker that topped at 88 (with that gun) and the Yankees' AAA squad hit it like it. His breaking ball was good, but if the fastball is not there, he will not survive. I will be surprised if he is not one of the next cuts.
    Several scouts at the game (look at the following picture) and not sure who they were scouting. Among them the Twins' First Scout who watched the game with a stopwatch on his left hand and a scouting book the size of Gutenberg's Bible on his lap.
    Tomorrow I will be at Port Charlotte watching the Twins visit the Rays' home park. First time at that ballpark for me and I look forward to it.



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  12. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (where the graphics are better for some reason)
    ----
     
    t is already almost a month into Spring Training games for the Twins, and it is time for the second version of the dashboards. You can find all 2013 Spring Training dashboards here, for reference.

    Again, you can find explanations of the measures and the colors of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles in these two links.

    The dashboard includes today's game against the Pirates.
    I indicate the players who were cut in italics and the day they were cut by the MiLB indication. This is the last time these dashboards will have dates, because they are getting too long. Next edition will have them compressed and only the active combatants will be listed. In addition, WBC game results are included for the relevent players (Beresford, Butera, Colabello, Deduno)
     
    This is it. The final 2.5 week of Spring Training where competition gets better and battles get fiercer. I will be in Florida and Fort Myers for the largest part of the next two weeks, so expect some exclusive coverage on the Twins major and minor leaguers from the Spring Training site.
    Here is the position player dashboard:
     


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    Few Observations:
     
     

    Aaron Hicks has won the CF starting job; whether the Twins' brass let him have it, is it still up for grabs
    Aaron Hicks has taken the lead for the Center Field starter position
    The other 2 OF positions (RF and bench) are still wide open, with Darin Mastroianni returning strong from his hamstring injury and Wilkin Ramirez performing consistently well and steadily leading Chris Parmelee who improved a bit but still trailing.
    The infield battle and the bench battles are wide open. Butera, Colabello and Olmedo have been sightly better than the rest and all three would be potentially battling for that last roster spot.

     
     
    Here is the pitcher dashboard:
     


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    Few Observations:
     
     

    Cole DeVries , Samuel Dedouno, PJ. Walters and Pedro Hernandez are all making a case for the one or two starting positions open, while Liam Hendriks is trailing pretty badly. Of these pitchers, the ones who do not make the rotation, still will have a chance for a long reliever position.
    Alex Burnett has not had a single good appearance this spring and I just cannot see how he can make the team if he does not change this pretty quickly.
    Tyler Robertson have turned it around this week with several good appearances and after the cuts is the only lefty reliever left (other than the locks Duensing and Perkins)
    Ryan Pressly and Tim Wood (other than a single horrible game) have been good and I think they have one foot in the opening day roster.
    Josh Roenicke, Luis Perdomo and Casey Fien had ups and downs,and all are probably fighting for the last bullpen spot.

  13. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (with the full size images; for some reason hard to reproduce here)
    ----
     
    It is already two weeks into Spring Training games for the Twins, so it is time for the second version of the dashboards. You can find all 2013 Spring Training dashboards here, for reference.
     
    Again, you can find explanations of the measures and the colors of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles in these two links.
     
    The dashboard includes last night's game.
     
    Here is the position player dashboard (click on images for full size) :
     


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    Few Observations:
     
     

    Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario have been given many accolades, but for me the surprise of Spring Training for the Twins so far has been Danny Rohlfing, the Twins' 23 year old AA catcher who for all practical purposes has been regarded as organizational depth. However, with his performance in front of the Twins' brass, added to his excellent defense at catcher and versatility (can play 1B and OF as well), he has to be into the conversation regarding Twins' Catcher prospects
    Aaron Hicks has taken the lead for the Center Field starter position
    The other 2 OF positions (RF and bench) are wide open, with Darin Mastroianni returning today from a hamstring injury-caused week's hiatus and Wilkin Ramirez performing consistently well and steadily leading Chris Parmelee who really has not found himself and is also ailing. I would not be surprised if Parmelee started the season in AAA.
    The infield battle and the bench battles are wide open. None of the infielders fighting for the 2 positions has been ahead of the pack at this time.

     
     
    Here is the pitcher dashboard:
     
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    Few Observations:
     
     

    He is starting today again, but Cole DeVries has been pretty consistent and effective as a starter so far, and I think that he is on his way to earn either a starter or the long reliever position, depending on other pitcher's health
    Speaking of health, despite what it has been reported, I will be surprised if Anthony Swarzak, Rafael Perez and Scott Diamond start the season in Minnesota on April fools'
    PJ Walters' performance has been pretty steady as well, but unlike DeVries, he has been used as a reliever and been facing lesser competition. He still has possibilities for a pen or even a starting role, based on health
    Kyle Gibson has had ups and one horrible game. The jury is still out.
    Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson have been as disappointing on the pitching side as Chris Parmelee on the position player side. I would not be surprised if they started the season in AAA.
    Ryan Pressly, the Twins' Rule 5 pick has been the most consistent reliever; other than a horrid game, Tim Wood has been great; Mike Tonkin has been surprising good and Josh Roenicke had ups and downs, but he has been trending up. Could these four pitchers win the four bullpen spots? Time will tell, but it will be a huge surprise if Tonkin does, since the highest level of play he saw has been a half season at Fort Myers with the Miracle.

     
    The next version will be after the cuts. Speaking of the cuts, I think that: Bryan Augenstein, BJ Hermsen, Trevor May and Alex Meyer from the pitchers and Kyle Knudson and maybe James Beresford might be it for position players. The World Baseball Classic has decimated the numbers of the Twins position players available,make it hard to field 2 teams in split squad games, so I do not foresee many position player cuts before other Twins return from the WBC.
  14. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch (and with a little better colors)
    ----
     
    With the Twins' Spring Training about half a month old and eight official games in the books, it is about time that I start posting these dashboards again keeping track of how the players who are batting for positions are doing. It might seem that Spring Training has been going on for a while, and it has because of the World Baseball Classic. For comparison, last year the first Twins' game of Spring Training was March 3rd.
     
    I have previously outlined the potential battles for position players as:
     
     

    3 outfield positions, including a back up
    2 infield positions, including a back up
    1 additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.

    Also indicated that I consider the following players as locks (so I am not tracking them) :
     
    Jamey Carroll
    Ryan Doumit
    Joe Mauer
    Justin Morneau
    Trevor Plouffe and
    Josh Willingham
     
     

    and in the same piece, I
    indicated that the battles for pitchers were for one to three starting positions (depending on Scott Diamond's and Mike Pelfrey's health) and at least four bullpen spots; I consider as locks here (thus not tracked), in addition to the 2 aforementioned if healthy:

     
    Kevin Correia
    Vance Worley
    Jared Burton
    Brian Duensing
    Glen Perkins
     

    The ideas behind the mechanics of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the
    position player and pitching battles is explained in these two links.






    For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "
    Game Score". It is calculated as follows:






    You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
    Add 1 point for each out.
    Add 1 point for each strikeout.
    Subtract 2 points for each hit.
    Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
    Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
    Subtract 1 point for each walk.
    There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.
     
    Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
    everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
    and everything below 49 "below average" (red).







    The pitchers are broken down as "starters" and "relievers" but it is understandable that starters are candidates to make the teams as relievers.







    For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:







    Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
    Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
    Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
    Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
    subtract 1 for each error,
    for catchers add 1 for each CS
    Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.
     
    Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:
     
    Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
    Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
    Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0







    Without further ado (and no comments) here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:








    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8243/8521721103_89878f7309_z.jpg










    and here for the pitchers:








    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8243/8522833028_778a7eb763_z.jpg










    There is still many games to be played and these will be changing in pretty much daily basis. I will publish the next installment in few days.


  15. Thrylos
    A Light exists in Spring
    Not present on the Year
    At any other period —
    When March is scarcely here







    -Emily Dickinson


     
    Spring Training time is one of my favorite baseball times during the season (or is it "off-season", or "pre-season"?)This is the time where all the teams have the same record and all 60 players or so who are invited in the Major League camp hope that they will be part of the major league roster. Some positions in the Twins' 25-man roster are chiseled in marble; however some are written in pensil, and some others are wide open for the taking. Last season, I used dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatands in both the position player and pitching battles. I am planning on doing the same this Spring training, but before starting quantifying, I'd like to qualify and see what potential battles there might this Spring.
    Position Players (13)
     
    The following six players (barring injuries and late trades) are locks to stay in the Twins' 25-man roster (all lists alphabetically) :
     
    Jamey Carroll
    Ryan Doumit
    Joe Mauer
    Justin Morneau
    Trevor Plouffe and
    Josh Willingham.
     
    Drew Butera
    Darin Mastroianni and
    Chris Parmelee
     
    are penciled in and only a horrible appearance might derail them coming up North, but they are not 100% locks (they are in the 80% range)so I will keep track of their performance.
     
    The potential battles in the Twins' 2013 Spring Training as far as position players go are for the following seven positions:
     
    3 outfield positions, including a back up
    2 infield positions, including a back up
    and one additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.
     
    Pitchers (12)
     
    I do assume that the Twins will take 13 position players and 12 pitchers; however, potentially they will forgo the bench bat or the third catcher and go with 13 pitchers. Time will tell.
     
    The following two starters and three relievers are pretty much locks:
     
    Kevin Correia
    Vance Worley
     
    Jared Burton
    Brian Duensing
    Glen Perkins
     
    The following two starters are locks, other than the fact that might not be ready:
     
    Scott Diamond
    Mike Pelfrey
     
    So there are battles from one to three starting positions and at least four bullpen spots.
     
    Potentially up to seven position player and seven pitcher spots on the 2013 Opening Day Twins 25-man roster will be decided this Spring, which is more than in the recent seasons, at least on paper... Interesting times indeed and sure to make this Spring more fun to watch closely.
     
     


    http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6110/6869531954_7acab45c41_z.jpg

  16. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    This is my second annual food guide to Fort Myers and the third and last in the series of the 2013 Guides to Fort Myers that include the logistics guide and the baseball guide. The first was more of a culinary guide, pointing out what are the local foods, and pointing out places you can sample them. That guide is still very relevant and you can find it here. This one is a little different than last year's. It is a more traditional restaurant guide. La Velle Neal has been publishing restaurant guides to Fort Myers on pretty much annual basis now (you can find his 2012 guide here)
     
    This guide by no means try to compete with La Velle's. And LEN3 and I come from different food perspectives and biases: I do not eat red meat or fowl, so you shall not see any barbeque places, steakhouses or smokehouses here because I do not go to those places usually. I do eat seafood, so there is a lot of this listed here. The other thing I am doing, is trying to keep the list to places that are close to Hammond Stadium and the Twins' training complex. Usually, when I am there, I have breakfast at my hotel, then at the ballparks until after the game is done and then out for dinner. I usually have "lunch" at the ballpark. And at the end, if you care to read that long, I will list the Twins' players 2 favorite hangouts. This guide is broken down by restaurant type.
     
    American:
     
    Clancy's 11481 McGregor Blvd - Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.clanceysrestaurant.com/) Typical american fair. Solid food and good prices. Lots of sandwiches as well. One of the few places you can actually have Triggerfish (by name). Try it, you'd like it. Lots of big burgers as well.
     
    Fancy's Southern Cafe 8890 Salrose Lane, Fort Myers, FL (http://fancyssoutherncafe.com/) True southern comfort food. Excellent shrimp and grits, fried okra, fried green tomatoes and deep fried cheese grits. And a slew of other Southern comfort food specials. This place has something for everyone and really worth a visit. Good prices too.
     
    The Veranda. 2122 2nd St, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.verandarestaurant.com/). Exactly what you will expect from an American/Continental dinning place with southern influences in Florida. Great cuisine, huge entrees, semi-formal atmosphere and prices in the $30s unless you go the tapas way, chosing from a variety of their apperizers. Blue Crab Cake, Southern Grit Cakes, Pan seared Scallops and Artichoke Fritters (all around $10) highly recommended from the appetizer menu. You cannot go wrong with any entree item, but it is a lot of food.
     
     
    Latin American:
     
    El Patio Restaurant 4444 Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL Peruvian. And if you have never had Peruvian food, this restaurant will be a good exuse to try. Awesome variety and prices (most entrees are under $10) and great flavor. This is the real deal. Try the seafood ceviche or one of the surf and turf mixes.
     
     
    El Gaucho Inca 4391 Colonial Blvd, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.elgauchoinca.com/) "Peruvian, Argentinan and Italian" food. Fancy Tango and dancing shows during dinner, the food is pretty interesting, if you like meat. If you don't there are better choices. The "Italian" part is because they serve pasta dishes. Nothing Italian to them. Stay away from those. The Argentinean dishes are pretty authentic, but the Peruvian derived...
     
    Super Tacos 535 Pine Island Road, (North) Fort Myers, FL (http://supertacos.net/) This is kind of far from the ballpark, but it is the best Mexican food place in Fort Myers, and this is why it is here. Fresh fresh ingredients, large portions and great prices. Their fish tacos are some of the best and at $2.99 per, an incredible value. A variety of fairly authentic Mexican fare.
     
     
    Asian:
     
    Daruma Japanese Steak House (http://www.darumarestaurant.com/) 13499 S Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL . Pretty solid but expensive Japanese fare. On the Teppanyaki side of the house there is a great variety and great flavor. Sushi is good, if overimaginative. Kind of americanized flavors, but this is true of most asian places these days. A ton of Teppan combinations, something for everyone. Large wine and cocktail list. Try the Oysters Tempura appetizer. Total Japanese/Southern fusion.
     
    Mr. Mees 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.mrmees.com/index.htm). Pan-Asian food (Japanese, Korean, Thai) and sushi. By far my favorite Asian food place in Fort Myers. Authentic Thai and Korean dishes and excellent sushi. Try the Bi Bim Bop (they make it vegetarian or with a fried egg, if you ask) or any of the Yum dishes. Both of the Bin Daduk dishes (pork & kimchee or seafood) are excellent appetizers.
     
    Osaka 16078 San Carlos Blvd. For Myers, FL (http://osakafortmyers.com/index.html) The name is kind of misleading. It in a Thai place that also offers Japanese and Sushi (because Japanese and sushi are popular these days.) Their Thai food is excellent. Try any of the Yum or the noodle dishes. Sushi and soups are good also. A vast list of appetizers, can make this a good tapas/dim sum dinner place.
     
     
    European/Mediterranean/French:
     
     
    Blue Windows French Bistro. 15250 S. Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.mybluewindows.com/) Fine French Bistro Food. Four course Prix Fixe menu that changes nightly based on best available local foods for about $50 a person. Also offers a variety of tasting menus and wine pairings. Traditional a la carte continental French courses as well. Extensive wine list. Best place to burn $200 for a dinner for 2 in Fort Myers. On the other hand, that $200 is about 8 Twins' tickets. Priorities.
     
     
    Cibo 12901 Mcgregor Blvd, Ste 17, Fort Myers, FL (http://cibofortmyers.com/) Upscale Italian. Extensive Wine list. Extensive Antipasto list. You can potentially have a great traditional Italian meal or an excellent Tapas dinner.
     
    Sasse's 3651 Evans Avenue Fort Myers, FL (http://www.sassesfortmyers.com/) Italian with continental flair. Menu changes based on seasonal availability. Mid-priced, even offers things like Pizza. Gluten-free menu on request. Their fish/seafood soup is awesome, if you like fish of course.
     
     
    Seafood:
     
     
    Pawnbroker 13451 - 16 McGregor Blvd, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.prawnbroker.com/) Same Strip Mall as Blu Sushi (which will be listed later). Fresh seafood and a seafood counter selling fresh seafood next to it. Bit old fashion but good traditional seafood. This is the kind of place that your grandma will take you and your significant other out. And that happens a lot in that place. Food is really really fresh, so enjoy. You might have to overlook the fact that you are the youngest person in the place. Even if you are in your 40s.
     
    Maria's Old Florida Restaurant; 17979 San Carlos Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL Listed as seafood here, but it really is a Creole (and some Cajun) fusion restaurant that incorporates a lot of seafood in their dishes. Interesting dishes like Cajun Shepard's Pie and Crawfish Enchiladas.
     
    Clam Bake 16520 S Tamiami Trl Ste 10, Fort Myers, FL (http://clambakefortmyers.com/) "Authentic New England Seafood". Hole in the wall place, family operated by former Rhode Islanders. They feature a variety of New England seafood like Stuffed Quahog, Clam Bakes, fried Oysters, Clams, Scallops and Shrimp, Clam Chowder, Steamed Lobster and a whole bunch of seafood sandwiches including Lobster Roll. Informal, inexpensive and great food.
     
    Blue Pointe Oyster Bar & Seafood Grill, 13499 SE Cleveland Ave Suite 141, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.bluepointerestaurant.com/). Traditional upscale great seafood place. Fresh seafood, great preparations. Grab one of the fish in the fish of the day list and get it prepared your way and you will do no wrong. Extensive wine and raw bar list. You know those seafood places that have that "steakhouse feel"? This is one of them. If this is your style, this one is a winner. My only complaint (and this is nitpicking) is that they do not use lots of local fish, but prefer northern fish.
     
    3 Fishermen Seafood 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (same strip mall as Mr. Mees - actually a couple doors down.) (http://www.threefishermenseafood.com/) casual, inexpensive and great food. A Tip: Even if there is not in the menu (they have it as one of their rotating specials), ask for grilled grouper tacos. You will not regret it. Big enough to fit two or a hungry teenager. Great shimp dishes and their signature is the Captain Paul’s Grouper. Great smoked fish dip as well. I really like this place.
     
    Local Hangouts:
     
    CRaVE: 12901 McGregor Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL (http://cravemenu.com/) not to be confused with the American Bistro chain with the same name. Fresh, local and organic food. Bistro feel. Great appetizers and well known for their sandwiches and salads. Lots of interesting takes on confort food like Meatloaf, Shepherd's Pie, Pot Roast and Pot Pie. Great Omelets for breakfast.
     
    Two Meatballs in the Kitchen. 8890 Salrose Ln Fort Myers, FL (http://www.2meatballs.com/) Typical Northeast Italian Food and Pizza. Plentiful sizes, huge variety, usually packed. Part of a local trifecto of restaurants that includes Taste of New York and Bella Rosa, the Two Meatballs is the most casual and busy of the 3. If you crave Northeast italian-american food, this is your place.
     
    Pincher's Crab Shack 15271 McGregor Boulevard Fort Myers, FL (http://www.pincherscrabshack.com/) Seafood but I am listing it here because this place rocks on happy hour. Indoor-outdoor seating, great fresh food, very good beer list and lots of mixed drinks. Grouper tacos are really awesome here. Very close to the ballpark as well.
     
     
    Chains of note:
     
    Bahama Breeze: 14701 S Tamiami Trl, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.bahamabreeze.com/)
    Caribbean-inspired food. Large variety of appetizers and small plates. Go for the fresh fish and make sure that it is something that exists in FL, like Grouper or Snapper, otherwise pass on the Mahi and farmed Salmon. Bunch of cocktails too. It's ok, nothing spectacular, but interesting variety of food. Lots of rum-based drinks, if you are into that kind of thing.
     
     
     
    Cantina Laredo 5200 Big Pine Way, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.cantinalaredo.com/) Their Motto is "Modern Mexican" and that it is. And it has solid food. But expensive food. Tex Mex and flavorful. Lots of people love it. For me it is to Mexican what PF Chang's (which is also in Fort Myers, I think) is to Chinese.
     
    Grimaldi's Coal Brick-Oven Pizzeria. 13499 S Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL (http://www.grimaldispizzeria.com/) As close to authentic New York style pizza as you can get in Florida because it started in Brooklyn. Small chain. Definitely worth a look if you are into pizza. Simple, traditional, nothing fusion here.
     
    Sweet Tomatoes: 14080 South Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.souplantation.com/)
    Soup, Pasta and Salad bar. Fresh budget food with a lot of choices.
     
    Pizza Fusion 12901 McGregor Blvd. Fort Myers, FL (http://pizzafusion.com/) This is the exact opposite of Grimaldi's. Organic crusts, organic toppings, interesting varieties and pizzas that look like flat breads (long and skinny.) Great flavors. Try the pear and gorgonzola, if you look for something different.
     
     
    The best places to rub shoulders with Twins' major and minor leaguers:
     
    As far as young single major leaguers and AAA players (like Luke Hughes, Danny Valencia, Drew Butera etc last season) and bonus-babies go, it is Blu Sushi 13451 McGregor Blvd Fort Myers, FL (http://www.blusushi.com/). Overimaginitive Sushi and Martini menu, really caters to the 20-something crowd. Fresh and flavorful. And Hip Crowd.
     
    As far as older players with families and younger minor leaguers go, it is Patinella's Chicken Grill 6810 Shoppes At Plantation Dr Fort Myers, FL (http://www.patinellaschickengrill.com/) or "The Chicken Grill" on Plantation Shoppes Drive. They offer grilled cut chicken on rice bowls with a bunch of veggies in different flavors or flatbread sandwiches. Pretty healthy fare for ballplayers.
     
    A note about beer and wine:
     
    In Florida beer and wine can be sold in places like gas stations and grocery stores. Most drug stores have adjunct liquer stores that sell the aforementioned plus liquor. The best beer variety is in grocery stores, and from those Publix tends to have more microbrews than the others. Because of the competition, the prices are fairly good, on the $7-10 range for a microbrew six pack.
     


    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/Takoyaki_by_yomi955.jpg

  17. Thrylos
    (originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch)
    ---
     
    For a baseball team to content, one of three things need to happen:
     

    An organization has to develop impact starting pitchers.
    An organization has to trade for impact starting pitcher.
    An organizations has to sign impact starting pitcher free agents.

    I demonstrated earlier this month that the Twins' last two year abysmal record could have been predicted as earlier as 2008, based on the state of their starting pitching prospects. Only 11 pitchers who have been in the Twins' minors in 2008 are still in the organization and none has been an impact starter. The Twins have been adverse in doing numbers 2 and 3 above, so in order to compete, they have to develop starting pitching talent.
     
    The Denard Span and Ben Revere trades infused the Twins with 3 young starting pitchers: Vince Worley, 24, and Trevor May and Alex Meyer, both 22, which makes the future a bit more hopeful. How hopeful? I will try to quantify, so the rest of the discussion here will be metrics and numbers based. This will actually be somewhat of a logical continuation of this analysis, where in August last year, I tried to look positively into the 2012 Minnesota Twins pitching and draw conclusions based on potential. What I am doing here is looking at the whole organization Starting Pitching, under very similar metrics and see what the future might look like. This will include potential rankings of Twins' starters, but it is not a prospect list. They are based on their 2012 performance (and adjusted for age and playing level) and not their potential. Injured players, such as Wimmers and Salcedo will be higher on prospect lists that ranked here, because their numbers were awful.
     
    The metrics I like to use to do this have been some simple things of my own device: Pitching Effectiveness or PE and Expected Pitching Effectiveness or xPE. I fiddled around with PE in 2008 and with xPE in 2009. Here is the reason I devised PE and here is the reason I optimized it to xPE. My main arguments were a. I felt like xFIP and FIP and DICE weigh too much things like home runs (which anyone who watched the home runs by Miquel Cabrera and Delmon Young against the Twins yesterday cannot deny that they are a matter of inches and ballpark and luck and fielding performance from being a long fly ball). Also these formulae are hard to memorize and I wanted something simple I can calculate looking at a stat sheet and also something that you can calculate using splits (e.g. how has Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins been as a starter vs as a reliever); you can find xFIP around, but not in a spit form. So in 2008 I devised PE, which simple takes account three things: Strikeouts, walks and hits. So a pitcher who strikes out more people, walks fewer and gives lesser hits is more likely to succeed than someone who doesn't. And all hits are counted equal because the difference between a single and a triple might be the difference of having Delmon Young or Ben Revere play Left Field or the difference between a fly ball out and a home run might be the difference of having Torii Hunter or Rich Becker playing Center Field. And I use WHIP, K/9 and K/BB to calculate PE (a simple PE= (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP). xPE further normalizes for BABIP (to league average .290) to account for "luck" with hits. And unlike FIP and ERA, these two measures go the opposite directions (higher is better) and have a large variation (0.x to 100+) to allow for granularity in comparisons vs. compressing performance from 0 to 10 or so. Over here, I show that xFIP and FIP correlate pretty well to the much more complex SIERA, which is way too complex to be able to calculate just with a cell phone calculate (which is my goal as far as metrics go.)
     
    PE and xPE have been fine to show performance and expected performance. How about potential? This is the many million dollar question, because if someone is able to guess estimate future potential of a player in single A, he/she will be having a great advantage in identifying cheap, future impact players, in a more objective way than scouting reports. So yet a new measure in the PE family has been devised: the adjusted expected pitching effectiveness or axPE. I tried something similar the off-season after the 2008 season, but the resulting formula was too complicated (cannot fit on a T-shirt or be calculated using a cell phone calculator), so needed to be refined. I hope I am close to this, since axPE is simpler. It takes into consideration level of play. Each level of play gets a number. Here are these numbers:
     
    All Rookie Leagues: 1
    A: 2
    A+: 3
    AA: 4
    AAA: 5
    MLB: 6
     
    the average of the levels a player participated is taken into consideration for axPE. For example if a pitcher spent part of the season in high A and then moved to AA, the average level grade is 3.5.
     
    The other adjustment involves someone's age. Younger players in higher levels have higher potential; this is the premise here. axPE is defined as xPE* (level/age) *7 . The 7 is a coefficient that makes it a number in the neighborhood of PE and xPE.
     
    A note of importance: agPE is biased towards better performance in higher levels; this is by design, since there have been pitchers who blew away rookie leagues and then bottomed out when they went to AA.
     
    The PE family metrics translators for starters (and relievers, for the sake of completeness, but RP are out of score here) are roughly translated to:
     
    Rotation:
    xPE/axPE
    35+ Ace
    25-35 #1- #2 Starter
    15-25 #2- #3 Starter
    10-15 #3 - #4 Starter
    7.5-10 #5 Starter
     
    Bullpen:
    xPE/axPE
    35+ Closer
    25-35 Closer-Setup
    15-25 Setup- Long Relief
    8-15 Long Relief-Mopup
     
    where axPE denotes intermediate/long term potential.
     
    So, do the Twins have any potentially impact starters in their organization, based on their 2012 performance?
     
    Without further ado, here are the numbers, that include pretty much every pitcher in the Twins organization, including the new ones, and those who pitched only in the major league level in 2012, under 30 years old. The age indicated is their age in 2012. I am including Nick Blackburn, for comparison's sake. Raw data is taken from B-R and an (*) denotes LHP:
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8078/8416556037_f7ef6c3021_c.jpg





     
    Thus, it looks like the Twins have 3 potential impact starters in their organization; Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer are not a surprise. Cole DeVries is. Cole DeVries' axPE is higher than his xPE level (which turns out to suggest a middle of the rotation starter), because he performed at the MLB level. Whether or not potential is applicable to a 28 year old who has reached the majors, is a good discussion. On the other extreme, some of the K/9 leaders in the organization, Josue Montanez, Taylor Rogers, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jones have repressed axPE, because they are still at the lower levels of the organization. I think that they need to prove themselves at higher level.
     
    Based on this, and if you cut the list at 25 years old or younger, the Twins have at least couple of pitchers who have impact starter (i.e. top of the rotation/ace) potential and several who have mid-rotation potential.
     
    A huge qualifier: This list is of pitchers who were used mostly as starters (i.e. made more starts than relief appearances in 2012.) This leaves at least one particular pitcher out who should be included, but he made 4 starts and 7 relief appearances: Jose Berrios. His numbers (albeit in 11 games and 30 some innings) are out of this world: 284.12 PE, 236.11 xPE, and 91.82 axPE. He should be part of the discussion and definitely has top of the rotation potential, but there is an asterisk for the reasons mentioned.
     
    Others who made few starts but mostly used in a relief role but definitely should be part of the equation are (in no order) : Matt Houser, Miguel Munoz, AJ Achter, Cole Johnson, Argentis Silva (the 16 year old high bonus singing) Elias Villasarra, Fernando Romero, Luke Bard, Jose Jimenez, Corey Kimes, Brett Lee and Mason Melotakis.
  18. Thrylos
    (originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch)
    ---
     
    Today the Minnesota Twins selected two new members to their Hall of Fame, LHP "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, and long time staffer Tom Mee. All Twins' fans know Everyday Eddie, but who is Tom Mee?
     
    Tom Mee has been with the Twins' organization from their first season in Minnesota (1961) until their last title (1991). He was the first front office person hired when the Twins moved to Minnesota in 1960 and was asked to lead their transition from Washington. The following season he became their PR Director, a position he held until his retirement. After his retirement from the Twins he was the official scorer in the Metrodome until 2007 and spend 2 seasons (1992 and 1993) with the Twins' broadcasting team with Dick Bremmer and Jim Kaat.
     
    He is a graduate of Joe Mauer's Alma Matter, St. Paul's Cretin High School. Mee was a baseball player with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers in the late 40s and played a couple seasons in the Independent Leagues. He was then certified by the Brown Institute of Radio as an announcer and his career as a Baseball radio announcer begun. It took him form Detroit Lakes to Montana to New Mexico when he finally settled back in the Cities doing Public Relationships for the St. Paul Saints (the former incarnation) in 1957.
     
    One of the little known facts about Mee is that he is the person who hired Jim Rantz to the Twins front office. In 1965, when the Twins won the pennant and went to the World Series, his one man PR department was overloaded and he needed a part time assistant so he hired Rantz who was managing the St. Cloud Northern League Club. Rantz stuck around from 1965 until last off-season.
     
    Tom Mee's son and grandson have also played baseball at the University of Minnesota. His grandson, Mike Mee, played a couple seasons in the Diamondbacks organization last decade.
     
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8470/8414916042_d39ae4c3a7.jpg

  19. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    This is the second of the three 2013 Spring Training Guides to Fort Myers that will appear here. The first one was a guide on the logistics of how to get there and where to stay etc., including some ways to get there as inexpensively as possible, if that is a consideration. The Logistics Guide can be found here. The next guide will be about food and this one is about the reason people go to Fort Myers: Spring Training baseball.
     
    The Twins' Spring Training Complex:
     
    Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex (all images are screenshots from Bing Maps) :
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7062/6870615187_617fab61b1_b.jpg
     
     
    The complex is accessible via the Miracle on 34th St, either from Ben C Pratt Pkwy or from Plantation Rd. The best was to go is via the Parkway, esp. if it is busy. Miracle on 34th St divides the Twins' part of the complex from the four county softball field. Hammond Stadium, the site of the Twins Spring Training home games and the home of the Fort Myers Miracle (the Twins' high A, Florida State League affiliate) is on the Northeast corner of the Complex. Those parallel lines is the parking lot that can fit about 2000 cars. The stadium seats about 8000 people, so parking can be tight.
     
    In addition to Hammond Stadium, there are four full size practice fields and two infield practice fields. You can find Twins' major and minor league players working out in those fields throughout the day, so it might make sense to explore the whole complex or even catch (a free, other than parking) minor league game or two. Some Hotels offer free shuttle service to the Complex, so make sure you explore this option if available
     
    During Twins' home games you have to pay for parking, however when the Twins are away, you can come into the complex and park for free and watch the Twins' minor leagues (you can do that on game days in the morning as well.) The minor leaguers are using the 3 full fields further away from the Ballpark and the inflied half field right next to the clubhouse (the tin building). The practice field next to the ballpark is exclusively used by the MLB team.
     
    There are 2 different camps take place there (the MLB and MiLB camp) but there is not a "dividing line" that folks who are cut from the big camp have to cross to get "down to the minor league" camp. As you can see, all the fields are next to each other. Often, non-travelling major leaguers (I saw Casilla and Carroll do that last season) play in Minor League games. So do rehabing major leaguers.
     
    The best way to watch the minor leaguers is to drive and park close to the clubhouse (there are not too many cars on non-game days, about as many as they are in the picture) and go between the 3 large fields. Usually AAA plays on the North West most field and AA next to it. With a little bit of imagination, one can sit between both fields and watch 2 games. There are bleachers in the area (metal). Bathrooms and a water fountain are in the south of the clubhouse building. Bringing water is a must here because there are no concessions. A lot of lower level or non-playing minor leaguers are around and on the stands watching the AAA and AA games. Actually pitchers are relegated to radar charting duty in tables in the common area behind the home plates and the fence, and standing around there is a good place to look at the radar readings. You can also find Twin Cities Sports Celebrities on the stands:
     
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7060/6881930842_2aaba33f03_o.jpg
     
     
     
    The "dugouts" and "bullpens" are just fenced in areas so you can get a great look of the Twins' minor leaguers. All minor league games are free. The new Twins' lease will provide for a dorm to be build in the area, but I am not certain on its wearabouts, but likely South of the fields and just west of the county softball fields.
     
     
    Hammond Stadium:
     
    Hammond Stadium (and the Lee County Complex) was officially opened in the Spring of 1991. (The year of the Twins' last World Championship.) It is the home of Fort Myers Miracle, a franchise that has Jimmy Buffett and Bill Murray as part-owners. It has been recently renovated and is one of the largest Ball Parks in FSL, sitting up to 8500 people.
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7197/6870615335_f8962df2e6_z.jpg
     
    As with most minor league stadiums, most sitting is on the infield between the two dugouts. Hammonds Stadium has a nose bleed 2xx level as well and a small grassy field on short right field for fans to sit picnic style. Spring training tickets cost from $45 to $10 or so, depending on the opponent and the seating. As far as tickets go, there are ticket outlets just outside the Park. You can preorder tickets over the web, or you can frequently obtain them from locals in the parking lot who are not interesting in attending the game.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7053/6873268706_ed1c6493c8_b.jpg
     
     
    One thing that you MUST note: bottled water in unopened containers is permitted in the stadium, as are bags up to 16x16x8 (think reusable grocery bags), so please take advantage of that. That said, the stadium has one of the best selections of beers, including more than 20 mainstream, import and microbrew beers and ales. The best variety of beer, including beer sold only for Twins' and Miracle's games there, is at the bar at the far left (third base) end of the outside concourse, right before the bullpen
     
    They only sell Pepsi products as far as soft drinks go. I will have a food guide within a week, but I have to mention that there is an interesting variety of food, including pizza, sweet potato fries, fish tacos, deep fried nachos on a stick, and two artery clogging specialties: the Carolina Dog, a hot dog topped with pulled pork, baked beans and coleslaw and the Richard Simmons burger a behemoth featuring a 1/4 lb burger, a 1/4 lb chicken, a 1/4 lb brat, held together by 3 slices of cheese and six strips of bacon and contains more calories that the average developing world person eats in a week. There is an annual concession guide, for the stadium that yet has to be published.
     
    Here is the seating guide from the Miracle web site. Also, this is a great article about Hammonds Stadium with a lot of detail about the ball park. Also, here is a must see panoramic view of the seating are a from last year's Spring Training. The Twins' dugout is on the third base side and the bullpen on the end of the bleachers in short left. The new lease provides for major renovations to the Ballpark including a catwalk area at the Outfield. Not sure when this will start and whether it will be around for the 2013 Spring Training.
     
    Other things:
     
    Last but not least, the Twins do not play home games every day. So what to do in an off day? I would chose from one of the following two things: Either drive to the Complex trying to catch minor leaguers (my favorite choice) and non-traveling major leaguers in action in one (or more) of the fields, or drive to watch the Twins in an away game. Here is a map of Florida that shows all the Grapefruit League home team locations:
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7044/6870615789_e450be9574_b.jpg
     
    The Rays play their home games about half an hour away and the Pirates and Orioles about an hour away or so. The Red Sox play in Fort Myers. Those are the most convenient ball parks to visit.
     
    Next: The Food Guide.
  20. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Less than a month for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers so it is about time for you to make your arrangements to go to Fort Myers (I made mine late last year) and it is about time for the second annual Fort Myers Guides.
     
    Last season there were two Spring Training Guides: the Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers and the Fort Myers Culinary Guide . This season there will be three guides and will be different than last year's. After I went to Spring Training in 2012 and about in the middle of the summer last year, the dice were rolled in such a way that I now go to the Central and South Central Florida area on a multiple times a month basis and I do have a list of additional tips on how and where best to get to Fort Myers. This will be the first guide: The Spring Training Logistics Guide, where the area is described and the best and least expensive ways of getting to the Twins' Spring Training home. Knowing what I know now last season, I could have saved at least a couple hundred dollars in airfare, at least that much in a hotel and about that much in a car rental, money better spent watching the Twins and buying Twins' (and Miracle) gear. As a bonus, I will list the official Twins' hotel, which is the place where a lot of Twins' people stay and a great place to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff.
     
    The second guide will be about what to do once you are there. And this is all about baseball. What is going on at the Training Complex, tips and tricks about watching the games at Hammond Stadium (based on my fresh experience from last year) and other ballparks you might want to visit. This with be the Spring Training Baseball Guide.
     
    The third guide will be a Food Guide to Fort Myers, but changed from last season's. Last season's it was cuisine-specific and I think that it is still a valuable resource. This season will be more restaurant-specific. As a bonus, I will list established hangouts of Twins' players.
     
    These guides are mainly from the Twins' perspective but useful for Red Sox' (and soon Nationals') fans
     
    How to get to Fort Myers:
     
    Unless you want to have a non-rental car with you (a good choice if you are a player or will be there for a month or so, or you live close to Fort Myers) flying is probably the best choice. There is a local airport (Southeast Florida International, code: RSW) served by a variety of airlines, but there are a total of about 75 flights a day into and out from there. Alternative airports are the larger Tampa International (TPA) and Miami International (MIA), about 2 and 2.5 hrs drive respectively as is the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) is slightly over an hour drive from Fort Myers and slightly larger airport than the Southwest Florida International at Fort Myers. Fort Lauderdale (FLL) is also an option, and a potentially fairly attractive one if your home airport has airlines like Frontier, Spirit and Allegient and you are willing to fly them, because they have inexpensive and relatively frequent flights there. Flying into Fort Myers is probably the most expensive option in the list but you do not have to drive far. Also, the TSA checkpoints in the return trip are a mess. Budget an extra hour to go through. My favorite option (and what I am doing this year?) Orlando.
     
    Orlando International (MCO) is about 3 hrs away from Fort Myers, but it offers the benefit of having the lowest airfare and lowest car rental prices in Florida, in combination to more that 60 mainstream carrier flights daily. Plus, as a bonus, if you have a family, you can spend a few days there with the kids, which will help them palate more 8+ hrs of baseball-related stuff that you would do once at Fort Myers. As far as airfare prices go and where to find the best ones, go to the ITA Matrix software portal, chose the "show a calendar of lowest fares" and play with it. This is the tool that travel agents are using. Once you find a flight, go online to the airline or an online travel agency and reserve it. My fares in and out of MCO have been in the $150-200 range from the North East, but YMMV depending on departing city.
     
    As far as rental cars go (and you do need one since the public transportation in Fort Myers is non-existent,) the best value in Florida is Dollar. And here is a trick: Go to the Dollar web site and register to be an express member for free. This way you will have the car waiting in a predetermined spot and you by-pass the counter. Next, make your reservation, by selecting view all car types and picking the least expensive option. Once you make your reservation, check it often and early and "modify" it to see if there are any lower prices posted. Dollar is notorious of dropping their car prices, especially close to the reservation dates. I usually rent cars at about $12-16 a day. But you have to check and change those prices a lot. Refuse the automatic toll machine ($8ish/day) and the GPS ($13ish a day) and deal with the insurance as you normally do (i.e. if you refuse because you are covered by your own car, refuse it.)
     
    If you want to drive down there, the fastest was to get there is via I-75 that goes through the town. From most points of the Midwest or Northwest, the best way is to catch I-75 around the Metro Atlanta area. From South and South West, I-10 hits I-75 in North Florida about an hour east of Jacksonville. From the East Coast, the best bet would be I-95 all the way to Daytona Beach, then I-4 through Orlando and catching I-75 at Tampa. If you live at the Twin Cities area, Minneapolis is about 1700 miles away from Fort Myers, which means about 3 days of 8 hours driving each, each way. Enjoy
     
    This is a map of South & Central Florida, to let you see where Fort Myers is situated in Florida (all maps and satellite images used in this post are screen shots from Bing maps) :
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7210/6870615689_9c49c11ca4_z.jpg
     
     
    The Metro Area and the City:
     
    Fort Myers (and, btw, it is not Ft. Myers) is the smallest of 3 cities in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan area. It has about 62,000 people, whereas the Metro has about 650,000 people most of them living in Cape Coral, a city planned and started in the late 50s as a huge retirement community. Interestingly enough the planners wanted to make every property close to water, so they created and extensive system of Canals. Cape Coral has more miles of navigable waterways than any city in the world, including Venice (Italy, not FL) and Amsterdam. About 400 miles of canals. Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Pine Island are popular beach front communities with a lot of beach-related tourism.
     
    Here is a photo of the Cape Coral- Fort Myers metro:
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7041/6870615619_08f2faa40c_z.jpg
     
    An important note, especially to people from northern climates: Average temperatures in March are 80 for high and 60 for low, so make sure that you pack sunscreen, hats, glasses, shorts, t-shirts and a swimsuit, if you are so inclined. And if you get sunburns, you will get a sunburn there, so please plan accordingly
     
    The city of Fort Myers itself is very easily navigated. Here is a map of the City with the Twins' Spring Training Headquarters noted with an orange Marker:
     
     
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7188/6870615475_684c7baa2a_z.jpg
     
    You can click here for a larger picture in a new window.
     
    Where to Stay:
     
    The Fort Myers Airport is about 6 miles due west from Hammonds Stadium and the Spring Training Complex. Daniels Parkway (that becomes Cypress Lake Dr in the City) will take you from the Airport to the town and the Twins' complex. If you are on a budget and looking for a hotel, the ones on Daniels Parkway and that area west of I-75 offer good bargains and are fairly close to the Twins' Spring Training Complex. Another area for reasonable accommodations is the S. Cleveland Avenue North of Page Field.
     
    Mostly everything can be found within a large triangle defined by S. Cleveland Ave to the West, Colonial Blvd to the North and the Ben C. Pratt Pkwy going Northeast to Southwest. The Twins' Spring training complex is on the South part of Ben C. Pratt Pkwy, just South of Daniels Pkwy. Traffic, other than when the games are over, is not an issue at Fort Myers.
     
    If you want to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff, the Twins' official/unofficial hotel in the Fort Myers' area is the Hilton Garden Inn Fort Myers (not the one by the airport, but the one "in town").
     
    Alternatively you can stay at Naples (offers more things to do at night) or Port Charlotte (offers less expensive rooms and it is the Rays' Spring Training Home). Both are about half an hour easy drive away.
     
    The best bargains for Hotels (unless you are a frequent guest and can use points for free rooms) are either Hotwire or Hotels.com, but the establishments are sometimes name-less so it can be a gamble. On the other hand, if you stay pretty close to the ballpark and away from the downtown area, there are not any seedy places.
     
    This year I will be staying at Port Charlotte and will be watching some Twins' games there as visitors as well.
     
    The Twins' Spring Training Complex:
     
    Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex:
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7062/6870615187_617fab61b1_b.jpg
     
    More about the complex, how and when to get there and all the things about the Twins' Spring Training home in the next guide.
  21. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    With Catchers and Pitchers reporting in less that one month for Spring Training 2013, I decided to get ready for my Spring Training Coverage (teaser: expect 3 new guides this month) so I was looking at the past coverage here. I stumbled upon this little piece from the end of the 2009 Spring Training. It looks really innocent. After all it is a list of all 97 pitchers in the Twins' minors in 2008 from DSL to AAA, who were still with the organization in 2009 along with the 2009 MiLB FAs and where they would potentially end up in 2009.
     
    Fairly innocent.
     
    Until you fast forward to 2013, where you see that only 11 of those 97 players are still in the Twins' organization in any level and nobody made any impact in the Twins' rotation. The best players in the list were swingmen and bullpen arms. Here is the list of the 11 who are still with the Twins (the original list of 97 is here ):
     
    Alex Burnett
    Cole Devries
    Brian Duensing
    Deolis Guerra
    B.J. Hermsen
    Bruce Pugh
    Tyler Robertson
    Adrian Salcedo
    Anthony Slama
    Tom Stuifbergen
    Anthony Swarzak
     
     
    So if your minor league system does not feed the major league team with impact starters for 4 years and you do not sign impact starters via free agency or acquire them via trades, how do you expect to compete?
     
    The writing for the mess that was 2011 and 2012 was on the wall for he Twins in 2009. They either just could not see it (by believing that their prospects were better than what they were) or they ignore it. Either way, it is equally bad.
    '


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7255/7876436966_2b679cff54_z.jpg

  22. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
     

    'Tis the time of the year when BBWAA writers who have ballots for the Hall of Fame voting, as well as everyone else, indicate who they want to be in the Hall of Fame. There are a lot of those lists and most of them come without much explanation and most of the picks are somewhat subjective (of the type: "Jack Morris should be in because he was the best post-season pitcher like ever"). Also, you have the steroid witch hunters sharpening their arrows and tightening their bows trying to make it all "alright". Furthermore, you have the people who think that because someone is a "nice guy", he should be in (Dale Murphy supporters now and Jim Rice supporters earlier fall into this category.)
     
    What are my ground rules for crating a Hall of Fame Ballot (and even though the word "objective" is on the title, this is the list of the subjective criteria I am using - and one has to use subjective criteria, since there is no objective direction from the Hall on when someone should or should not be in):
     
     

    You cannot "punish" one type of PED users (steroid users) and not another. So either all deserved players are in or all out. Since MLB listed amphetamines or "greenies" in the PED banned list, lots of the enshrined players should be out, according to the ones who are on the Steroid witch hunt, starting with Hank Aaron, who in a televised interview with Bob Kostas, admitted to have taken greenies. All in or all out. Period. Otherwise it is a hypocrisy akin to that of a pro-lifer supporting the death penalty. So, in my ballot, they are all in. No time for witch hunts
    I believe that the Hall of Fame should not be the Hall of Very Good (or with the recent addition of the likes of Jim Rice, the Hall of All Stars). Only the best players of an era should be there. A handful. The very best
    I would like to find an objective criterium to use to rank players. And since this is a lifetime achievement, career WAR is as close as it gets. WAR takes care of the era and included hitting, fielding and base running for position players, and it is adjusted for position so it is pretty holistic (and helps obliterate arguments that someone who is a Catcher or a Short Stop could be lighter hitting than an OF/1B and still in the Hall. That is all reflected in the number). Some people indicate that pitcher WAR is useless; my take is that (since it is a cummulative achievement award) for this exercise works pretty well (and the data below show it) unless it is for a reliever.

    Without further ado, here is a list of all players in the 2013 ballot, in decreasing WAR (Baseball-Reference style), including recently selected players in blue backgrounds.
     
     
    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8084/8322198894_e281e170d6_o.jpg






     
     
    The players in green (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell and Curt Schilling) will have my vote. The players in yellow are in a bubble (based on the previously inducted Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin) and will get some votes. There are 11 playes in yellow and green and only 10 spots. Lee Smith will always get votes, but his WAR is just too low compared with that of Goose Gossage (whom I consider borderline) Players like Dale Murphy, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa do not belong in the Hall.
     
    You heard it correctly: Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa do not belong in the Hall of Fame. And not because they used steroids potentially. They do not belong because their numbers are not good enough. Objectively. Not witch huntingly. Roger Maris of 61 in 61, whose record was broken, has a career WAR in the 30s, btw.
     
    So here you have it. And there will be the McGwire and Sosa debate (for the wrong reasons) and the Morris and Murphy debate, but objectively, none of these guys should be in.

  23. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    The Twins' General Manager has been on the record many times this offseason indicating that he would like to get someone who will "push" Trevor Plouffe at third base. The Twins' field and front office staff are unhappy with Plouffe's defense in the hot corner. Plouffe has had his moments there, but he is still learning the position. Let us not forget that the powers of being who feel that Plouffe is inadequate defensively are the same who gave starting roles at third base to Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris, who, arguable were worse defenders than Plouffe, plus Buscher has played the position all his life. And that happened in contending Twins' teams. Regardless, for some reason getting another player who can play third base is a priority for Terry Ryan for the Twins to rebound from consecutive 99 and 96 loss season.
     
    Who would that player be?
     
    There are three internal options: Jamey Carroll, Deibinson Romero and Mark Sobolewski. I have already discussed the last two here. For some reason, it seems that Terry Ryan does not like these options (Only Carroll was invited in Spring Training) and had an offer out to light hitting 33 year old Jack Hannahan whose greatest claim to fame is that he is Minnesotan; he snubbed the Twins and elected to sign a 1 year $2 million dollar contract with the Twins. I suspect that Ryan will not be bringing back Nick Punto or sign Chone Figgins. The pickings out there at the major league level are really slim and all remaining are aging utility players with very weak bats plus Scott Rollen who is old but serviceable mulling retirement or returning to the Reds. But, this would be the team to take 24 HRs away from a RHB (Plouffe) to install a light hitting third baseman.
     
    Are there any other possibilities?
     
    Looking at the list of the minor league free agents, here are the ones who are still available and at least decent defensively and offensively at third base. I suspect that unless Ryan chooses any of the aforementioned internal options, one of these folks would be it:
     
    Shawn Bowman, 29, RHB
    Audy Ciriaco, 26 RHB
    Brooks Conrad, 33, SHB
    Mike Costanzo, 30, LHB
    Ruben Gotay, 30, SHB
    Michael Hollimon (re-sign) 31, SHB
    Kevin Howard, 32, LHB
    Tug Hulett, 30, LHB
    Andy LaRoche, 29, RHB
    Mario Lisson, 29, RHB
    Matt Mangini, 27, LHB
    Jimmy Swift, 26, RHB
     
    Your guess is good as mine
     


    http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Florida+Marlins+v+Baltimore+Orioles+K-gk-OWIiA6l.jpg

  24. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Here is this week's installment:
     
     

    Kyle Gibson returned to Rochester about a year or so after he was injured there
    This is a really interesting article (and well researched too) about Baseball announcers favoring certain kind of players. Interesting to see whether there is a follow up about managers following suit. Great read.
    The New Britain Rock Cats (Twins' AA affiliate) will host the 2013 Eastern League All Star Game.
    Speaking of, current Rock Cats, Deibinson Romero, Aaron Hicks and Chris Collabelo were named as Eastern League All Stars
    Congratulations to Candido Pimentel of the Elizabethton Twins to be named player of the year for the Appalachian League. He and fellow E-Twins OF Max Kepler made the All Star team. In addition their trainer Ryan Hedwell was named League Trainer of the Year.
    SS Aderlin Mejia and OF Jeremias Pineda made it to the Gulf Coast League (rookie) All Start Team
    The ink on this piece by John Wagner indicating that Liam Hendriks is feeling at home at Rochester, did not dry and the righty was called up by the Twins. I am sure that he did not mind. Interestingly enough, this is how the official International League Home Page looked the day after Hendriks pitched for the Twins (last Thursday)
    This is an interesting article about what Twins' Jose Berrios and Astros' Carlos Correa are doing for the island of Puerto Rico.
    Because you probably did not see it here is video of Terry Ryan announcing the extension of the Twins Player Development Contract with Rochester, as well as commentary.
    And who said that you cannot have fun if you are Twins' minor leaguer in a pennant race?
    And from the you-cannot-make-it-up department: The NY Yankees acquired a player the Twins cut after Spring Training and changed a couple more franchises before he got there this season, and they added him to their 40-man roster
    And if you always always wanted to have a TK and Gardy and Ray Miller and Billy Martin Bobblehead, you gotta check this out.
    Looks like the Twins' owners are diversifying
    Twins' product of the week is the Minnesota Twins Dog Taghttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=B007ORPEZI. The way this season has been going...

     
    The parting shot today is one that is worth more that 1000 words, but also needs some to describe it: Last few days of 2012 Spring Training. Fort Myers, Florida. A workout drill with AAA pitchers, and most of them were cut from the major league club a while before this was taken. There are 6 gentlemen pictured here. All but Brad Thompson (who never recovered from injuries and was released - he is second from the left in the background, right behind the guy who is pitching, btw) made the Twins this season and have contributed in varying degrees. Do you recognize them? And this is somewhat of a lesson that perseverence and not getting disappointed by short term perceived failures is a good thing. The tide can and will change...
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7255/7876436966_2b679cff54_z.jpg
  25. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     

    This is the fourth instalment in this series. You can find the older ones
    here (most recent on top.) Promotions and demotions are listed under the team where the player currently plays (this means promotions to the Minnesota Twins will not be listed here)

     
    Here are the transactions in all levels in the Twins organization from August 11th until yesterday August 17th:
     
    Rochester Redwings (International League, AAA):
     
    8-24 - Minnesota Twins optioned OF Matt Carson to Rochester Red Wings.
    8-23 - LHP Pedro Hernandez was placed on the 7-day disabled list. strained lat muscle
    8-23 - RHP Kyle Gibson assigned to Rochester Red Wings from Fort Myers Miracle.
    8-20 - Minnesota Twins outrighted RHP Nick Blackburn to Rochester Red Wings.
    8-20 - Minnesota Twins outrighted IF Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Rochester Red Wings.
     
    New Britain Rock Cats (Eastern League, AA):
     
    8-22 - C Josmil Pinto assigned to New Britain Rock Cats from Fort Myers Miracle.
     
    Fort Myers Miracle (Florida State League, A+):
    8-18 - Fort Myers Miracle activated LHP Pat Dean from the 7-Day disabled list.
    8-18 - Fort Myers Miracle placed 1B Michael Gonzales on the 7-Day disabled list. Strained elbow.
     
    Beloit Snappers (Midwest League, A):
     
    No Transactions this weeklist.
     
    Elizabethton Twins (Appalachian League, Rk+):
     
    8-22 - Elizabethton Twins placed RHP Christian Powell on the temporarily inactive list
    8-21 - Elizabethton Twins placed RHP Luke Bard on the 7-Day disabled list.
     
    GCL Twins (Gulf Coast League, Rk):
     
    No Transactions this week
     
    DSL Twins (Dominican Summer League, Foreign Rk):
     
    No Transactions this week
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