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Thrylos

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  1. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch.
     
    ----
    Today is the fourth installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 and 26-30. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here.
     
    25. Alexis Tapia RHP (30) RHSP, DOB: 8/10/1995, 6'2", 195 lbs
     
    Alexis Tapia was signed by the Minnesota Twins from Venezuela on Sept of 2012, and 2013 was his first professional season. He spent that season (his age 17 season) in the DSL where he playing in 11 games (7 as a starter) pitching 42.3 innings, striking out 31 and walking 5. His ERA was 2.13 and his WHIP a miniscule 0.874. Last season we moved on to the Gulf Coast league, where as an 18 year old (2.5 years younger than the league average) he pitched 45 innings allowing 6 BBs and 36 Ks, for a 3.20 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 1.044 WHIP.
     
    The 3 things that you hear about Tapia are: that he is "projectable", with a growing 6'2" frame, that he has a "good feel for the game", and that he is "throwing strikes". His fastball is plus with plus control, his change is above average, and breaking ball is a work in progress. Tapia will likely start in the Elizabethton rotation. The Twins do have a lot of young good arms, but count Tapia as a sleeper, especially if he develops his secondary stuff and increases his 19.3% K%.
     
    24. Rainis Silva C (--) RHB, DOB: 3/20/1996, 6'1", 185 lbs
     
    Rainis Silva is an international free agent classmate of Amaurys Minier and Lewis Thorpe, signed by the Twins as a 16 year old in 2012 for $175,000. He has been known as a defense first catcher and has represented Venezuela in several international youth under 16 tournaments. Like Tapia, he made the transition from the DSL to the GCL and improved with the bat from .223/.289/.250 to .270/.294/.342, adding 2 inches and some bulk. He is strikeout prone (6:25 BB:K in 160 PA) and his bat is a work in progress.
     
    He is ranked that high because of his defense and game calling skills that they are much more advanced than his 18 years of age. He is probably the most polished receiver in the Twins' organization (and that includes everyone from the majors down, thus the ranking.) About a year and a half younger than the GCL average, he will likely move in the Appalachian League in 2015. The development of his bat will determine his future with the organization, but he is very young right now.
     
    23. Mike Cederoth RHP (18) RHSP, DOB: 11/25/1992, 6'6", 195 lbs
     
    Mike Cederoth was signed by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft from San Diego State University. Cederoth started in his first years at SDSU and he was their closer last year, dropping his ERA to about half (2.29 vs 4.26) and saving 20 games. The Twins look at him as a starter and he started 10 games (45.7 IP) in Elizabethton where he struck out 42 and walked 18, with a 3.52 ERA, 3.65 FIP and 1.28 WHIP. Cederoth's command and control are problematic and the source of the issue is his mechanics and large frame. His fastball is a plus to plus plus ranging from mid to high 90s, but his secondary stuff needs work. His mid 80s slider is average and a workable pitch, but his mid 80s change and high 70s 12-6 curve are works in progress and ineffective.
     
    He was a half year older than the average in the Appalachian League. Will likely start in Cedar Rapids in 2015 and the Twins will be patient for his development as a starter. Depending on whether he develops an above average third and/or a fourth pitch, his future could range from a mid to top of the rotation starter or a late inning reliever. Either way, the next couple of years will be critical for his development, because unless he manages and improves his mechanics, he will not reach his potential.
     
    22. Levi Michael 2B (38) SHB, DOB: 2/9/1991, 5'10", 180 lbs.
     
    Levi Michael was drafted in the first round (30th overall) of the 2011 MLB draft from the University of North Carolina. His 2012 and 2013 seasons at Fort Myers were lackadaisical (.246/.339/.311 and .229/.331/.340 with erratic play at SS) and Michael was flirting with being added to the list of First Round Busts for the Twins; however his 2014 play established him again as a prospect. He started the season in Fort Meyers at a league average age now and the third time was the charm: he hit .305/.375/.395, played exclusively at second base and his glove showed major improvement. He moved to New Britain, where he was 1.7 years younger than the league and improved his hitting to .340/.444/.358 and played well at second.
     
    What changed this season? He finally got accustomed to making contact with the wooden bat. His discipline has always been fine with a K:BB ratio south of 1.5 in pro ball. However his batting average dropped from .290 and .346 and .289 in college to .246 and .249 in the pros. Those numbers are similar to his average with the wooden bat as a collegiate in the Cape Code league in 2009 and 2010 (.247 and .252.) His glove is improving with full time play at second and I do foresee his bat improving. Will likely start the 2015 season in New Britain. The Twins did not protect him from the rule 5 draft this off-season, but will likely have to, next off-season. If he repeats his 2014 performance at the higher levels, he will be knocking at the Twins door by September and might be even thought as a potential Brian Dozier replacement a year from now. Why is he then not a top 15 prospect? Because this is a deep organization and because he just had one good season. Depending on how he starts 2015, he might skyrocket (or drop) in this list...
     
    21. Adam Walker OF (13) RH, DOB: 10/18/1991, 6'5", 225 lbs
     
    Adam Walker by the Minnesota Twins in the 3rd round of the 2012 Draft from Jacksonville University. I wrote the following about Walker in the 2014 off-season prospect list:
     
    Power is Walker's most obvious tool (.246 and .248 IsoP in the last two seasons, age 20 and 21) and will likely increase. He played mostly first base in college and made the transition to full time OF (RF) in the pros. Walker is an adequate corner outfielder, even though his arm is weak, and has some speed. His contact and [selectivity] tools need work; his K% drop from 30.2% in 2012 to 20.8 % is encouraging. If he improves his contact he can be an All-Star corner outfielder (likely left fielder) in the majors. Will likely start the 2014 (age 22) season in Fort Myers.
     
    He did start this season at Fort Myers and unless one is looking at HRs (25) or RBIs (94), 2014 was a major disappointment for Walker, regressing at every aspect of the game. His K% increased to 28.2%, his batting average decreased to .246 and, even his strong suit, his IsoP decreased to .190, dropping .058 points from 2013. Walker needs to improve in all of those numbers in 2015 at get back to at least 2013 levels in AA, to be considered as a top 20 prospect in this organization. There are major concerns about his ability to make contact and hit for average as well as about his plate discipline. If those are not addressed, his ceiling will be Steve Balboni...
     
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
     
     
     
     
    ----
  2. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
    On paper the Minnesota Twins' reunion with 39 year old Torii Hunter last night, seems a bit puzzling. Rational thinking and looking at records and results of games, would suggest that a team coming back from seasons of 99, 96, 96 and 92 losses and hurting primarily in pitching and defense, would need an aging 39 year old outfielder with diminishing defensive skills being the marquee transaction of the season, as much as a painful communicable disease. Not to mention that the particular outfield added injury (signing with a team withing the Twins division) two seasons ago, to the 2007 insult of leaving the Twins as a free agent for more money elsewhere. But that is rational thinking.
     
    Any person who has followed the Twins should know that this is business as usual for Terry Ryan's front office. There is no need to rationalize Hunter's signing. It makes perfect sense, if you realize, that this is how Terry Ryan builds a team. Here is the complete Terry Ryan transaction record from
    the 1995-2006 seasons and 2012. I posted that before the last two off-seasons. The Torii Hunter signing fits Ryan's modus operenti like a glove: Ryan re-signed a 41 year old Paul Molitor in 1998, reunited the Twins with a 35 year old Mike Trombley in 2002 and washed out Matt LeCroy (the player who chose over David Ortiz after 2002) in 2007, re-signed Capps in 2012 and Carl Willing in 2005 (to release them later,) in addition to the last year's washed out trio of Bartlett, Kubel and Guerrier. This is the same General Manager who brought old and washed out Tony Batista, Tim Raines, Rueben Sierra, Bob Tewksbury, Otis Nixon, Mike Morgan, Michael Jackson and Sidney Ponson (among others) as "solutions". Old and washed out is Terry Ryan's specialty. Nothing new here, nothing to rationalized. Business. As. Usual.
     
    Back to non-rational thinking. One of the biggest problems with the Twins the past 4 seasons (and beyond, as far as the post-season goes) is that they seemed to be ok with losing and they seemed not to give 100% all the time. Last Spring Training, it became painfully obvious to me, and indicated that I just cannot see this team win, no matter what the improvements on paper (and there were a lot.) Getting Gardenhire and most of his friends who, if not bred, they were at least ok with this attitude, is a step to the right direction, hoping that Molitor and his staff will install a winning attitude among the players. Torii Hunter, punching short utility teammates while targeting rookie stars notwithstanding, has had the reputation of playing hard and giving it all. And keep working. And then work some more. Hopefully, he will bring the right attitude to the team of so many young players with so much potential. Hopefully he will be an example for hard work and never giving up. And never stop working. Not that I like that signing, rationally, but when it pours lemons... On the other hand, Torii Hunter was a core member of the Gardenhire teams that went belly up in the post-season or when they were facing winning opponents. I hope that 2015 is different.
     
    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2849/13202271055_90f257ba1d_z.jpg
  3. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
    I released my extensive off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins top 40 prospect list last winter. You can find the full off-season 1-40 list and links to individual reports on each prospect here. The 2014 draft is over, I have seen several Twins' prospects play for the first time last Spring, and the full season 2014 minor league seasons are close to mid-point, so it is time to revisit the Twins' prospects and release my mid-season top 40 list. This is a preliminary list, which means that there are not full reports about each player, as I do that during the off-season, and several players have not even appeared in a single game.

    Housekeeping notes: in parenthesis there is the off-season prospect ranking. When a player was with the Twins but not ranked in the top 40, there is (---) and if a player was not with the Twins then, there is the (NEW) indication. Players who have played in the majors (Danny Santana, Logan Darnell and Mike Tonkin notably) are not included in this list. Also, as a reminder, my criteria are slightly different that others' (e.g I value actual results at a higher competition level more than most) and the Twins have such a deep system, that some players who are listed in other lists and/or have been drafted in early rounds recently or have received large international signing bonuses will be conspicuously absent from this list.

    Without further ado, with some one-liner commentary about my thought process:

    1. Miguel Sano 3B (1)
    2. Byron Buxton OF (2)

    I felt I should not punish these guys for getting hurt. On the other hand, having Tommy John surgery due to repetitive injury, and re-injuring you wrist sliding and being out because of it, are two different situations. I did think hard about dropping Buxton to number three because of injury prone-ness and lack of execution in the games he played so far, but I did not. However, the distance from Sano, which was not much before, is larger now because of those reasons.

    3. Alex Meyer RHP (3)

    The best arm in this list and in the organization

    4. Trevor May RHP (9)

    The second most MLB-ready pitcher in the list and the first starter. Made the jump up here because he finally broke through to the next level as a pitcher in AAA

    5. Kennys Vargas 1B/DH (7)

    The most MLB-ready bat in the list, Kennys will likely replace Kendrys as the full time DH in 2015 and his bat can play in the majors right now.

    6. Jorge Polanco SS (6)

    Playing full time shortstop and while there are some concerns about his sure-handedness with the glove, he has one of the best contact tools in the organization

    7. Kohl Stewart EHP (5)

    He dropped simply because of the strikeout rate decrease and because he has proven that he is touchable in Cedar Rapids. There is time to remedy that the rest of the season

    8. Nick Gordon SS (NEW)

    The 5th overall draft pick for the Twins in 2014. Good tool set. If he can stick at SS and show that he can make contact in the pros, he will stay a top prospect

    9. Jose Berrios RHP (8)

    If anything, Berrios has been better this season. Just there are others ahead of him in this deep organization at this point.

    10. Eddie Rosario OF (4)

    The drop is not as much about the suspension, it is mostly about the position change. A second baseman with his contact skill and speed is much more rare and valuable than an outfielder. So part on Rosario, bigger part on the Twins.

    11. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B (14)

    Fully expect that he will have a monster season coming up

    12. Max Kepler OF/1B (16)
    13. Adam Walker OF (17)

    14. Nick Burdi RHP (NEW)

    The Twins' 2014 second round pick, is ["upset"] that he was selected that low and he is the most MLB-ready pitcher in this list. With an 103 mph fastball and low to mid 90s slider he can probably be as effective (or more) as any RHP in the Minnesota Twins' bullpen today. If he harness his changeup, he will be a dominant closer for a long time. I should probably have ranked him higher in the list, and this might happen in the off-season.

    15. Lewis Thorpe LHP (18)

    Highest LHP in this ranking and in most Twins' prospect lists

    16. Travis Harrison OF (13)

    Change in position hurts his ranking

    17. Mitch Garver C (---)

    The Twins' 9th round pick in the 2013 draft was not much on the radar this off-season. Really impressed my this Spring Break with his bat, his athleticism and his ability to handle pitchers, and is the best position player in Cedar Rapids so far, thus he is my highest ranked catching prospect in the Twins' organization

    18. Mike Cederoth RHP (NEW)

    The Twins' 3rd round pick in 2014 is another triple digit FB/slider pitcher who has drawn comparisons to Stephen Strausberg. Unlike Burdi, he has the potential to be a starter, but his stuff is a tick lesser than Burdi's. Signability is an issue. If he signs and turns into a starter and develops a third pitch, he will jump up in this list

    19. Ryan Eades RHP (11)
    20. Stephen Gonsalves LHP (10)

    These guys suffered a sizeable drop because they really did not show me much during Spring Training and Eades has not performed in the Midwest League as expected.

    21. Engelb Vielma SS (---)

    Another player who was flying under the radar last season who impressed me this Spring. Excellent speed and great instincts both with the glove and on the base paths. He can be a starting shortstop in the majors right now, but his bat will look like Florimon's, if not like Deduno's. He needs to cultivate his hitting ability. Young and very slim, he can fill in.

    22. Nico Goodrum IF (27)
     
     

    Starting as the every day third baseman for the Miracle, the former 2010 second round draft pick who has disappointed so far, might actually start to show his potential making solid contact and being fine with the glove.


     
     
    23. Felix Jorge RHP (12)
     
     
    Same situation as Eades. Disappointing season, but his spring was excellent. Might be a temperature issue.
     
     
    24. Lewin Diaz 1B (NEW)
     
     
    The seventeen year old who was signed as an international free agent last July has started his pro career in the DSL and it will be a good one. A lot like Minier with the bat
     
     
    25. AJ Achter RHP (---)
     
     
    Achter has been quietly turning into one of the best arms in the organization and might finish the season in Minnesota. Better pitcher than Mike Tonkin at this point.
     
     
    26. Aaron Slegers RHP (---)
     
     
    Another 2013 draftee (5th round) who impressed me last spring. Very tall pitcher with potential to add velocity if he works with his mechanics
     
     
    27. Jose Abreu RHP (23)
    28. Matthew Koch C (22)
     
     
    These guys got caught into the numbers game
     
     
    29. Zach Larson OF (36)
     
     
    I think that my off-season prospect list was the only one that Zach was in, but I am sure that he has opened a few more eyes with his Midwest League performance.
     
     
    30. Alexis Tapia RHP (21)
     
     
    Might jump back up depending on E-town play
     
     
    31. Zach Jones RHP (19)
     
     
    Lost season, the emergence and draft of other relievers drop Zach, but the potential is there.
     
     
    32. Sean Gilmartin LHP (NEW)
     
     
    When the last list was made, Ryan Doumit was still a Twin
     
     
    33. Brian Gilbert RHP (20)
     
     
    Proven hitable in Fort Myers.
     
     
    34. Argenis Silva RHP (---)
     
     
    The 18 year old will finally show his ability injury free in his third DSL season
     
     
    35. Sam Clay LHP (NEW)
     
     
    The Twins' 4th round draft pick in 2014 projects as a starter, might end up as a long reliever.
     
     
    36. Brandon Peterson RHP (---)
     
     
    All the 13th round pick in 2013 does is strikes hitters out and does not allow runs to score. Moved 4 spots in 2 seasons, he is fast-tracked and ready to jump these rankings the off-season
     
     
    37. DJ Baxendale (15)
     
     
    One of the biggest drops in this list. He has not figured out AA or AA has figured him out. The 23 year old is back at Fort Myers for fine tuning. Needs to prove himself the second half, but hard to give up on him at this point, because I have seen him do amazing things
     
     
    38. Levi Michael 2B (---)
     
     
    Is the former first round draft pick figuring it out finally with the stick in his third FSL stint? He is leading the Miracle in Batting Average and OBP.
     
     
    39. Fernardo Romero RHP (34)
     
     
    40. Randy Rosario LHP (---)
     
     
    Excellent skills have not translated in results in 3 games started at Cedar Rapids, but there is a lot of potential.
     
     
     
     
    Graduated:
     
     
    Danny Santana, Logan Darnell
     
     
     
    Dropped:
     
    DJ Hicks (24)
    JD Williams (25)
    Stuart Turner (28)
    Josh Burris (29)
    Mason Melotakis (31)
    Deibinson Romero (32)
    Mike Gonzales (33)
    Logan Wade (37)
    Tyler Grimes (38)
    Tyler Jones (39)
    Alex Wimmers (40)
     




  4. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    Phil Hughes so far (8 starts, about a quarter of the season) has been the Minnesota Twins' best pitcher and should definitely have All-Star consideration. In addition to his old school 4-1, 3.61 ERA, he has 7.6 K/9, 6.7 K/BB, and 1.225 WHIP. This translates to a 41.6 PE, which is in Ace territory. Take into consideration that he achieved that with a .326 BABIP (thanks to the Twins' playing catchers, shortstops and designated hitters at the outfield), and his numbers become ever more impressive: Adjusted WHIP: 1.09, xPE: 46.8, FIP 2.94. The strikeouts (20.3% K-rate and 7.6 K/9) are especially a welcome departure from the usual for the Twins.
     
    Last season was a horrible season for Hughes, but still his K-rate was high (and has been, it has 18.9% and 20.3%, last season and the season before last, respectively) and was going deep into games. This game, against the eventual AL West champions, could have been a mirror image of his last appearance with the Twins:
     
    [video=youtube;o1ZLa74Wlcg]
     
     
    All in all, Phil Hughes is up to a great start and it should not be all that surprising. According to this analysis, he was a solid two to three starter last season, and based on this analysis, he was a good, but not a top 3, pitcher for the Twins to target last off-season.
  5. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    As I indicated earlier, in addition to seeing Alex Meyer, one of my goals last weekend when I attended the Red Wings' last 3 games at the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, was to have a good look at the newest Twins' player Eduardo Nunez. Nunez, once the heir apparent to Derek Jeter and a Yankees top prospect, was traded by those Yankees to the Twins for Miguel Sulbaran (quick scouting report from this Spring Training here.) Even though I am deeply enshrined as an Eduardo Escobar supporter for the Twins' starting Shortstop job, any improvement over Pedro Florimon, is more than welcome, so I was extremely intrigued at seeing Nunez on the field and at the plate.
     
    In the three games I saw, Nunez played Shortstop, DH, and Right Field. There has been a reputation built around Nunez indicating that his defense is poor. Looking at the various measurements, which are all affected by the smallish sample size, UZR, fangraphs "Defense" and RZR does not like him much, but it also looks like he made 50 plays out of the zone at shortstop in 152 games, so color me intrigued. Here is what I saw:
     
    In his game as a shortstop he handled several balls and made good accurate throws to first base. Adjusts well on different batters and is pretty aware. On a particular grounder he juggled the ball, but still initiated a double play, so that did not hurt. As a right fielder he took good routes to the ball, had to dig a ball from the corner and did it exceptionally well and made strong throws to the correct cut off man. On one occasion he tried to barehand a ground ball and he overran it by a foot, but recovered. All in all he looks like an average fielder to me out there, if a bit eager to make a play. I am not sure about where the reputation of a bad fielder comes from (maybe from WFAN 660 callers?) but for someone like me who have seen the Twins play Buscher, Nishioka, Harris, Delmon Young, and still play Plouffe and Willingham on the field, I think that Nunez will be an improvement over all of them.
     
    As far as his bat goes, I was really impressed by the quality of his plate appearances. You can see a video of a plate appearance here. He is tied for the lead in Home Runs for the Red Wings with 3 and he has not played that much. His ability to adjust and put the ball in play is excellent. Something that the Twins can really use in the bottom of their lineup. In addition to the video example mentioned above, here is a sequence of photos that shows what I described:
     
    Pitch 1: Slider low and outside, swing and miss:
     




     
     
     
     
     
    Pitch 2: Same pitch. Moves inside a more, times it better and fouls it:
     




     
     
     
    Pitch 3: Same pitch. He gets the fat piece of the bat and turns it in for a double:
     




     
    I cannot remember how many times I have seen Twins' hitters in the majors failing to do this.
     
    All in all, I think that Eduardo Nunez will be an asset for the Twins and part of the solution in the future.
     




  6. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    I had the opportunity to watch the Rochester Red Wings' last 3 games (the double header last night and this afternoon's game) in my back yard against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs over the weekend. My list of must dos were to see whether Alex Meyer was as good as he was this Spring, in real game situations and to see what Eduardo Nunez was all about. Happily to say, that I have done that and more and I am ready to share.
     
    Speaking about sharing, on the first leg of the doubleheader last night, the IronPigs wore their new bacon uniforms, so here is a shot of them.
     




     
     
    If you look closely, the bacon strip on the hat spells "IronPigs" in a Salvador Dali-like script.
     




     
    Back to the Twins: Little known fact, but Alex Meyer is doing a variety of resistance exercises on his shoulder for a good 20 minutes before he goes to the pen to warm up.
     




     
    I guess that loosens the shoulder
     













    In this game Meyer showed why he is the
    Twins' number 3 overall prospect and the Twins' top prospect who is playing the game right now. His Fastball sat all night between 94 and 96 mph, touching as high as 97 and as low as 92 on occasion, and was a ball that he threw all over the zone. Inside and out and up and down. If being a batter trying to catch up to a 97 mph inside FB after swinging at a 94 mph outside FB was not enough, Meyer's best pitch is not his fastball that has a wicked downward motion and it is very hard to lift. Arguably, his Fastball is his third best pitch. He is using his FB to set up a knee buckling high 70s curve (his best pitch by far) and a low to mid 80s changeup, with a tailing motion. These two are his out pitches. He also has a slurvy slider in mid to upper 80s, which is an average pitch at this point. So we are talking about a repertoire of 3 plus pitches (with at least the curve being plus plus) and an average and improving pitch. All a batter can do at this point is to put the bat down in the zone and pray that contact is made and there is a bloop or an error on the other end. And that was what happened yesterday. A couple of bloops, a couple of errors by Deibinson Romero and a couple of soft singles down the middle amidst a bunch of broken bats, soft grounders and strikeouts.






    Here are pictorials on the velocities that Meyer operates within (Radar readings upper right corner) :


































     
    Those were: Fastball, Slider, Change up, Curve, Curve. And his fastest Fastball clocked at 97, while his slowest curveball at 78. This is a good 20 mph or so range and he held that range throughout the game.
     
    By far, he has the best stuff in the Twins' organization and definitely top of the rotation potential.
     
    Next: Eduardo Nunez.
  7. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    ...and has nothing to do with nostalgia.
     
    The Twins have been busy trying to finalize their 25 man roster, this week, the last of Spring Training, and unless you are lucky enough to vacation to a remote island away from mobile phones and the Internets, you would know by now that there was a waiver wire frenzy that had two Twins without options (Chris Parmelee and Scott Diamond) passing through waivers unclaimed and assigned to Rochester (with Diamond sleeping on whether he will accept the assignment or not and become a free agent) and a third (Alex Presley of Justin Morneau trade fame) getting claimed by the Astros. While frantically counting bodies to see who might be the backup Centerfielder in the squad, the Twins' Communications Director, Dustin Morse gave the answer on twitter:
     
     


    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ABl3HGy40K8/UzU6W8QqQ8I/AAAAAAAAAPc/pJRtzESVDeQ/s1600/Bartlett.png

     
    That conclusion was there, just by looking at who remained after the waiver activity, and in addition to Jason Bartlett it seems that Chris Colabello, who had a terrific Spring Training, also made the team. However, unlike with Bartlett, no official announcements have been made about Colabello (who does have 2 years of minor league options remaining) and since yesterday the Twins have 2 open 40-man roster spots, even if you include Kubel and Bartlett, which they might use to pick someone from the waiver wire and promote to the 25-man roster.
     
    I really have mixed feelings about Bartlett making the team. I did not like the idea that the Twins gave minor league contracts to both Kubel and Bartlett, mainly because I thought that both of them had their best years well behind and, like when they traded a Hamburger to the Rangers for Yesterday Eddie, the Twins were signing the ghosts of Jasons past. And Bartlett had a horrible Spring on paper and did not get any better when I was down there and saw him in person. His appearances on the plate made me think that he would have hard time making contact from a tee and allowed me to make snide in game remarks like this and this. But something changed yesterday. On one hand I still do not think that he is in shape to help the team with his bat, but it is not the end of the world and he might actually do help the team. Why is that?
     
    First of all, to make it clear. It is not because of nostalgia. If you have been reading this blog for a while, by now you should know that I think that one of the darkest seasons in the Twins' history was the smallball team of 2006, which lost all 3 of its postseason games, despite the facts that it had both the AL MVP and the AL Cy Young and it was the favorite to win it all. Dark times for the Twins, Gardy's piranhas and all, and Bartlett was part of the problem in my book.
     
    It is not even because I think that Florimon probably will not be ready to begin the season and Bartlett might provide insurance. I already think that the Twins have a very capable shortstop (other than Florimon) who should be starting and is due for a break through season.
     
    It is because of this. I really disliked the vibe I got from the Twins when I was down in Fort Myers, especially as far as effort goes, and I wrote about it in detail, predicting that it will be the downfall of the Twins this season. But Barlett actually gave it all this Spring. Inability to make contact or not. He was fine on the field as well, he was always with a smile on his face, including when he made that catch at Centerfield (I was sitting at the new OF seats right above him practically) and he looked like he had fun playing the game like a kid. I think that the Twins can use this kind of energy right now, despite the fact that the Bartlett as a major leaguer experiment might be short-lived.
     
    So, sarcasm aside, I am warming up to the idea...
     


    http://mlb.mlb.com/assets/images/1/1/2/68265112/cuts/bartlett_guerrier_kubel_720_m23hhvfe_gl3g5vm8.jpg

  8. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Every year I wait to watch the Twins in Spring Training before I form an opinion about how they will do this coming season. And I like to watch them in person to do this, just trying to see little signs here and little clues there. A bit before I did that, my arm was twisted to give a number of wins and position of finishing for the Twins this season, and I predicted that the Twins will go 81-81 to finish third in AL Central. It was a quick prediction based on the improvement of the pitching staff this off-season. Even Mike Pelfrey, recently said (reference to be added soon) that the Twins will finish at least .500 next season.
     
    This might be good on paper, but I really got a bad feeling last week. And it does not have to do with the front office completely ignoring the offensive and position player side of the ball this off-season (the only moves practically being substituting Kurt Suzuki for Ryan Doumit and Jason Kubel for Justin Morneau.) It does not even have to do with the recent (and much celebrated and discussed) comments of acting GM Rob Antony, suggesting that nobody who is competing for a spot is actually doing anything to win a job. On paper, and being optimistic, I thought that Willingham and Plouffe will rebound, Hicks will reach his potential, Arcia will be the power hitter we all expect to be, Pinto will solidify the catcher position, Mauer will improve with his knees not having the catching stress and that Escobar will have a break-through season as a shortstop akin to Brian Dozier's 2013 who would not regress. It might still as well happen. And then the Twins will win at least 81 games. And I hope it happens.
     
    But I got a really bad feeling last week. And it was there precipitated and displayed in front of the eyes of the 100 of us who remained late Tuesday night to see the last pitch at that Twins' night game hosting the Rays. And it had not much to do with Vance Worley's right arm and the batting practice projectiles he was throwing, but by the lackadaisical play and non-effort by the position players the whole spring. And not only the ones who are fighting for a job per Rob Antony. And not only at that game, but this was the epitome.
     
    On the flights to Fort Myers and back I have been reading Cool Of The Evening: The 1965 Minnesota Twinshttp://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=biowriters&l=as2&o=1&a=1886513716 by Jim Theilman (an excellent book and highly recommended, btw.) Thielman mentions that one of the turning points of the 1965 magical Twins' season came at the middle of Spring Training in Orlando's Tinker Field: At the middle of a game, because of lack of effort, Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup, benched him for a while and fined him $300, an amount very high for the time. This gave the message that it is expected for even the best players to give 100% even during Spring Training and set the tone for the rest of the season.
     
    How many times the last 3 seasons have you seen plenty of Twins' players not giving it all? And with what consequences? And it is continuing this Spring and I do not think that the Twins will go anywhere unless they go back to full effort (Mele's season, piranhas' season or whatever, take your peak.) Examples (from that game) :
     
     

    Josh Willingham hits a scorcher past third base to left that bounced just over the bag, half a foot fair and rolled all the way to the corner. As the ball was hit, I was thinking triple all the way. Mr Willingham jogged around the bases and managed to get himself thrown out at second by a few feet. It ended up being recorded as a single with the hitter thrown out at second trying to stretch it into a double. On the field It was much more.
    Vancy Worley was hit hard. Very hard. And at about four times, if Trevor Plouffe was guarding the line on inside fastballs he would have made outs out of those 4 hits. I do understand it if it happens once. Then you adjust. And the Twins have a special infield coach who should supposedly help these days too. On paper it was four hits (a couple doubles as well.) On the field it was much more.
    Alex Presley gets on base. Gets a good jump trying to steal second. He is there before the throw. He over-slides the base. He is tagged out. For the third time. On the paper it was recorded as an CS. On the field it was much more.
    Later in the game there is fly ball to the short left field. LF Wilkin Ramirez goes in, SS Eduardo Escobar goes out to catch the ball. Ramirez yells "I got it". Escobar stops 7-8 feet away. The ball drops in front of Ramirez. On paper it was an error. On the field it was much more.

     
    It is the little things. And they are not little. They are big cumulatively. And it is accountability for not doing things right. Did Willingham and Presley have extra base running practice the next day? Plouffe and Ramirez fielding practice? Did anyone of them get pulled out of the game (they cannot be fined, the CBA took care of that)? We all know the answer. And if the Twins do not start holding everyone from the players, to the manager, to the coaches to the front office accountable for what is happening on the field, not much will change. Rotation improvements or not.
     
    My prediction: I hate to say it, but 70-92 and 5th place. But I do hope that this time someone is held accountable for this...
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3797/13297203983_22ddecd5cd_z.jpg

  9. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    The (big) boys were out of town today and this left only the two A-level squads in action at the Lee County Sports Complex fields playing the A and Advanced A level Orioles' squads. One of the things that need to be noted, is that these squads do not see each other in regular season competition. The Twins' Advanced A team, the Fort Myers Miracle, is in the Florida State League, whereas the Orioles' Advance A team, the Frederick Keys, is in the Carolina League. The Twins' A team, the Cedar Rapids Kernels, is in the Midwest League and the O's A team, the Delmarva Shorebirds, is in the Southern Atlantic League. Even their higher level short season teams are in different leagues: The Elizabethton Twins are in the Rookie Appalachian League, whereas as the Aberdeen IronBirds are in the Short-Season A, New York-Pennsylvania League. So the players (and the coaches) are not really familiar with each other.
     
    Another fun thing about today was that there were 9 of my top 40 Twins' prospects playing today and at least 3 more players who will receive consideration for next season: Numbers 8 (Berrios), 10 (Gonsalves), 11 (Eades), 12 (Jorge), 13 (Harrison), 16 (Kepler), 18 (Walker), 24 (DJ Hicks) and 26 (Duffey.) Here is what I saw from them today:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3695/13177436535_d31d13bbae_z.jpg

     
     
    Jose Berrios, was on top of his game. He probably gained a couple on inches of height from last season and his fastball gained a few notches. He was throwing easy 94-96 mph four seamers, his curveball was its usual plus pitch (but probably the third best curve by a Twins' pitcher today; more on that later) and his changeup is improving. He struck out the side first inning and cruised afterwards. A solid pitcher for that number 8 ranking, who might move a bit higher if he shows some endurance and pitches a bunch of innings at Fort Myers this season.
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7194/13177710964_681d1eb16c_z.jpg

     
    Stephen Gonsalves, my 10th ranked prospect, threw the single nastiest pitch on both fields today: His 12-6 slow 69-73 mph curveball is a devastating pitch. And coming from a tall lanky lefty who is all arms and lengths, is even more harder to hit. Solid 89-91 mph two seamer and a good high 70s changeup complement his offerings. I have Gonsalves ranked as the highest ranked LHP prospect in the Twins' system, and unless I get really flabbergasted by Luis Thorpe, it will still be the case. That curveball (or any plus plus secondary "out" pitch) is very hard to develop, while adding mph on one's fastball is easier.
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7256/13177422415_6ab89bd344_z.jpg






    I admit that I also got a bit of heat when I ranked Ryan Eades as the Twins' 11th best prospect. And the reasons I did, are the same reasons that today I think that the ranking is pretty good: He is a very polished pitcher with at least 4 above average pitches: His bread and butter is a 89-92 mph two seamer with crazy movement. Think Deduno, but with better control. Today, the results were not good, because he had to throw it up the zone because the home plate umpire did not call the low strike at all, but this is a plus pitch at that level. Add above average to plus slow curve, cutter/slider and change, and you got a complete pitcher.








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7077/13177704344_8de105fdd3_z.jpg






    Felix Jorge (my number 12 prospect) is a guy who a lot of people think that he is throwing high 90s heat because of the sound of the ball when it hits the glove, plus he has this nice frame and fluid delivery and looks like he can throw fast.
    Here is my mini scouting report in the prospect rankings (go to number 12.) His fastball touched 92 today, but it is a really heavy sinker. This guy is a warm killer. Great downward movement and good horizontal tailing. The breaking ball (called it a slurve back then, still stand with it) is tight. Second best breaking ball today. Very easy delivery. I think that the change up with improve, and I bet that he has a four-seamer in his back pocket. Really.







    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2108/13177443575_f369d18d21_z.jpg






    Keeping with the pitchers and skipping up to number 26: It was good to see Tyler Duffey pitch and I have this feeling in the back of my head that he will be a reliever again. His fastball was up to 95; and this is about 4 mph more than his average last season. And that was a very effective pitch. He is also throwing a slider and change, which both are above average.







    As far as the position players go:







    These two guys (who were first and second on one of the most meaningless stats - RBIs - in the Twins' organization last season) look even bigger this season. Florida State League beware.








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3738/13177558073_8aa5964146_z.jpg





     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3668/13177560143_b01f6f072c_o.jpg

     
    Travis Harrison is in incredible shape. The last couple seasons, he was the prototypical slow power hitter guy, even as a teenager, making people think that he is a corner OF/1B/DH type. This season the Fort Myers' (and likely New Britain) fans will be in for a treat. Today he legged out a triple, he has much better range at the field. A total delight to see. Dark horse to shoot up the prospect rankings big time. And he hit in the second hole tonight.
     
    Speaking of people who will shoot up the rankings (at least mine) here are 3:
     
    Engelb Vielma. This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization. He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy. Like it is an everyday kind of thing. Looks like his contact tool is getting better. He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm. And he has room to grow. I think that he will move into second in my SS rankings after 6th overall ranked Jorge Polanco.
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3701/13177673914_d8502e87ee_z.jpg

     
     
    The other two guys are catchers who just look like ball players: Brian Navarreto (pictured below) and Mitch Garver. All of a sudden, I think that the Twins are alright in catcher depth in the organization.
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7017/13177552423_6e4095c29d_z.jpg

  10. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Second day of live coverage of the Twins Spring training from Fort Myers. Today there was mainly major league action and some minor league drills before the Miracle and Kernels games, with the Red Wings and Rock Cats squads traveling.
     
    As a reminder, you can find all Spring Training coverage here.
     
    On the single A Beloit side of things, there was a lot of fielding practice going on, including a lot of serious work with the pitchers. I think that these gentlemen might make a pretty mighty squad this coming season:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3817/13155470175_43444cd015_c.jpg

     
    On the field few paces west (Field 2) the high A squad was doing drills with Doug Mientkiewitz and company. This is more of a note to self, but this guy, is one to follow, especially after his lights out appearance at Elizabethton last season. Second tallest person in the Twins' system (Loek Van Mil now has replaced Tanaka in his previous team in Japan) and I think that his future is bright.
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3692/13155477975_efc6eb09d3_c.jpg

     
    And, yes, Hudson Boyd looks a lot slimmer and he ever volunteer to carry stuff around:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3833/13155478785_6bccbc667d_o.jpg

     
    Even this guy was practicing with the Miracle:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3723/13155476875_a5e52d6263_c.jpg

     
    And it was good to see him rip a couple and let them go. (This is Alex Wimmers, if you don't know.) He then joined a bunch of Red Wings' pitchers like Alex Meyers, Yohan Pino, Danny Turpen and company for a toss.
     
    The main affair at Hammond Stadium was a 2-2 a piece tie with Baltimore. Mike Pelfrey started and he pitched a fine 3 innings. A couple things to note (actually one) : Either he is working on a sinker (yes) or they calibrated the Hammond Stadium radar (yes too). He was tossing mainly two seamers with a couple of curves and splitters mixed in today and his two-seamers were sitting around 89-91 a good 4-5 mph below his usual four seamer velocity.
     
    Good to see Mattie Guerrier throw today, especially after Jared Burton, because he was so much better than Burton. Easy 92-93 mph, nice mechanics, I am not sure whether he should be regarded as a dark horse at this point. Give him a week or so of work and I suspect that he might make the team.
     
    Glen Perkins signed a contact extension and this was what he had to say:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3802/13155692973_5d4bfb0cfe_z.jpg






    The other half of the Twins' split squad punished the Yankees 7-2 up in Tampa today.







    Here are the newest Spring Training Dashboards reflecting both games today:







    (You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards
    here) : 
    A reminder of the scoring system:
     
     





    For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "
    Game Score". It is calculated as follows:






    You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
    Add 1 point for each out.
    Add 1 point for each strikeout.
    Subtract 2 points for each hit.
    Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
    Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
    Subtract 1 point for each walk.
    There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.
     
    Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
    everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
    and everything below 49 "below average" (red).


     

    For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:



    Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
    Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
    Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
    Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
    subtract 1 for each error,
    for catchers add 1 for each CS
    Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.
     
    Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:
     
    Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
    Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
    Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0







    Players on the 40-man roster are in bold. The ones without options are also underlined. Left-handed pitchers are in italics.







    Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7362/13155492095_352c570fd9_o.png









    and for the pitchers:
     
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2753/13155781264_a62fe2f6fe.jpg

  11. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    I am on site at Fort Myers and this will be the first in a series of reports regarding the Twins' major and minor leaguers from the Lee County sports complex grounds. As a reminder, you can find all Spring Training coverage here.
     
    Miguel Sulbaran came to the Twins from the Dodgers in the Drew Butera trade last season and started four games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Twins single A affiliate. Sulbaran did not make it to my top 40 off-season Twins' prospect list, but he made the cut in plenty lists, so I was intrigued to see him pitch for the first time, throwing live pitching practice to Pedro Florimon (mostly) and Nate Hanson. He is stockier than his listed 5'10", 185 lbs, with strong lower body. He has a good fastball in the low 90s with good pop. He threw a very good changeup, and an excellent curve, which had Florimon guessing. He also has a slider that is a cutter-like pitch. 30-40 live batting practice pitches are not a big sample size, but I think that the Twins have something here. On the other hand 30-40 pitches were plenty enough to see that Florimon is not even close. He made contact with only 2 balls, neither of which left the cage. The biggest issue is timing. I just cannot see how he can make the team with just 2 weeks left in Spring Training.
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7350/13136375015_76fff1d022_c.jpg

     
    Today the Twins were hosting the Red Sox at Hammond Stadium and had another Spring Training attendance record with 92xx people. Phil Hughes was the starter for the Twins. He started the first inning throwing primarily his four-seamer that was sitting between 92-94 and touched 95. He also threw a few cutters at 88-91 and his curveball that was pretty much the story of his game. He is working on it this spring to replace his slider and it was the main pitch he threw his last 2 innings of work, along a few two-seamers and cutters and a couple of high 70s low 80s change ups. His curveball hit anywhere from 69-75 mph and he threw one for strikes (one of them caught David Ortiz looking at strike 3) as well as at the dirt. His appearance was much better than the results that were in part on a fielding error by Plouffe or a ground ball and on another on Mauer on a low pick off throw by Hughes (that one actually could have been on Hughes as well.)
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7422/13136473583_87a90eb494_z.jpg






    Hard to see Mauer at first base, but he was fine (other than that one play)








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3703/13136656044_c9936f7f8f_z.jpg






    Matt Hoffman pitched a couple of innings for the Twins and I think that he is in competition for a Lefty Spot in the pen.








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3773/13136710264_59187d50c5_c.jpg






    He really has 2 pitches now, a fastball that touched 89 and a breaking ball of sorts that was thrown around 80. That is somewhat of a slurve, but with more of a change up type of motion and I can see it raking havoc against left hand batters.







    Deduno has pitched for 3 innings and they were strong 3 innings. I could not believe that he would be ready this close to his shoulder surgery, but he threw really well. His fastball was as lively as ever from 88-92 and his control was better than I have seen from him before. I was really impressed today.








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3829/13136668904_470dc4a1a5_z.jpg





    Mike Tonkin finished the game for the Twins and he had a solid outing. One thing that might mean something or might not, is that his fastball was clocking from 91-94 (with the Hammond Stadium radar) with is a few ticks lower than his usual fastball. He is a candidate to break camp with the Twins this Spring
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3802/13136687924_93cedd3ba6_z.jpg

     
    I am not sure that any of these gentlemen, on the other hand, will be breaking camp with the Twins:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3707/13136632934_6ee12253ec_z.jpg

     
    And the reason I am saying this is that Hicks has been solid both with the bat and on the field, while Presley has been anaemic with the bat and error prone at the field and he has a long way to climb now to even reach the back up level, while Frier is probably fourth in the depth chart, behind Hermann, Pinto and Suzuki (alphabetically.) Chris Herrmann might have been the surprise of this spring, along with Danny Santana, and will be interesting to see these two guys up North. Chris Collabelo is another player who might be knocking at the door and this might mean bad news for Jason Kubel.
     
    There was a replay today on a disputed home run call, and I cannot believe how primitive looking the replay apparatus is:
     


    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53tTpYiHiJ4/UyJOmR-xjII/AAAAAAAAAPE/793LhoLoUXU/s1600/P3130153.jpg

     
    All in all it was a good game. There was a questionable stop sign by the Twins third base coach, Joe Vavra, with 2 outs and down one at the eighth inning, but I guess coaches have Spring Training as well. Regardless, if the Twins are to climb off the 90 loss hole, they need to be more aggressive at every phase of the game including base running.
  12. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    One of the most contested spots for the Twins, on paper, this Spring Training was going to be that of the 5th starter. The newly signed (or re-signed) Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, in addition to holdover veteran Kevin Correia, had four spots, while the three out of option guys (Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, in alphabetical order) were to battle for that fifth spot, maybe with the addition of first round draft pick Kyle Gibson and newly acquired once top prospect lefty Kris Johnson. Even opinions that maybe two of the later group might win spots and force a trade of Kevin Correia were mentioned.
     
    That was on paper and theoretically. Here is what is happening in reality:
     
    Ron Gardenhire had this to say about Samuel Deduno: "He's healthy. Coming out of the 'pen, whatever, I like the guy. I would love to have this guy on my staff". In other words, one of the no-options-left pitchers is all but destined for a bullpen position. In addition, here is the list of the pitchers who have started the Twins' games this spring (including the "B" and intrasquad games) :
     
    2/27 (intrasquad) : Hughes
    2/27 (intrasquad) : Correia
    2/28 (Red Sox) : Pelfrey
    3/1 (Red Sox) : Diamond
    3/2 (Rays) : Nolasco
    3/3 (Blue Jays) : Correia
    3/3 (Pirates) : Worley
    3/4 (Marlins) : Hughes
    3/5 (Orioles) : Pelfrey
    3/7 (Pirates - B game) : Correia
    3/7 (Pirates) : Worley
    3/8 (Blue Jays) : Hughes
    3/9 (Phillies) : Pelfrey
    3/11 (Rays) : Nolasco (today)
     
    So other than the 3/1 game, Scott Diamond has been pitching in relief, like Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Kris Johnson et al., which means that if he makes the club, it will likely be as a reliever and the Twins all but handed the 5th starter job to Vance Worley. And this is not a bad thing necessarily because he is the youngest of all 3 pitchers with no options, has the highest upside and has had the most success in the majors.
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg

  13. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    One of the most contested spots for the Twins, on paper, this Spring Training was going to be that of the 5th starter. The newly signed (or re-signed) Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, in addition to holdover veteran Kevin Correia, had four spots, while the three out of option guys (Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, in alphabetical order) were to battle for that fifth spot, maybe with the addition of first round draft pick Kyle Gibson and newly acquired once top prospect lefty Kris Johnson. Even opinions that maybe two of the later group might win spots and force a trade of Kevin Correia were mentioned.
     
    That was on paper and theoretically. Here is what is happening in reality:
     
    Ron Gardenhire had this to say about Samuel Deduno: "He's healthy. Coming out of the 'pen, whatever, I like the guy. I would love to have this guy on my staff". In other words, one of the no-options-left pitchers is all but destined for a bullpen position. In addition, here is the list of the pitchers who have started the Twins' games this spring (including the "B" and intrasquad games) :
     
    2/27 (intrasquad) : Hughes
    2/27 (intrasquad) : Correia
    2/28 (Red Sox) : Pelfrey
    3/1 (Red Sox) : Diamond
    3/2 (Rays) : Nolasco
    3/3 (Blue Jays) : Correia
    3/3 (Pirates) : Worley
    3/4 (Marlins) : Hughes
    3/5 (Orioles) : Pelfrey
    3/7 (Pirates - B game) : Correia
    3/7 (Pirates) : Worley
    3/8 (Blue Jays) : Hughes
    3/9 (Phillies) : Pelfrey
    3/11 (Rays) : Nolasco (today)
     
    So other than the 3/1 game, Scott Diamond has been pitching in relief, like Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Kris Johnson et al., which means that if he makes the club, it will likely be as a reliever and the Twins all but handed the 5th starter job to Vance Worley. And this is not a bad thing necessarily because he is the youngest of all 3 pitchers with no options, has the highest upside and has had the most success in the majors.
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg

  14. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Here are the latest Twins Spring Training battle dashboards updated for yesterday's game and the Spring Training cuts. The players who were cut are not longer listed. You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :
     
    A reminder of the scoring system:
     
     
     


    For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "
    Game Score". It is calculated as follows:








    You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
    Add 1 point for each out.
    Add 1 point for each strikeout.
    Subtract 2 points for each hit.
    Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
    Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
    Subtract 1 point for each walk.
    There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.
     
    Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
    everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
    and everything below 49 "below average" (red).


     

    For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:







    Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
    Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
    Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
    Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
    subtract 1 for each error,
    for catchers add 1 for each CS
    Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.
     
    Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:
     
    Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
    Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
    Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0







    Players on the 40-man roster are in bold. The ones without options are also underlined. Left-handed pitchers are in italics.







    Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7311/13065973095_9726a80ebb_o.jpg










    And for the Pitchers:








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3476/13066304804_e90d00a5a8_o.jpg

  15. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Like most teams the Minnesota Twins will be announcing the first cuts of the major league Spring Training camp very soon. Who will those players be?
     
    One group of players who gets cut first are players on the 40-man roster who do not have much likelihood to make the team and were added on the roster for protection's sake. I think that Logan Darnell, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Kennys Vargas will be the four casualties from this category. I think that Trevor May is on the bubble and might be in the first cuts list as well, because he has been pitching primarily in relief (and not that great) and will need to be stretched as a starter and it might be good timing with the minor league games starting the coming Monday. Edgar Ibarra, who has yet to play because of Hepatitis B, is another serious candidate to go to the minor league camp to recuperate.
     
    I think that the Twins will want to have a longer look on Danny Santana, Kris Johnson (they are performing really well and with Pedro Florimon yet to play because of his apendectomy and the fifth starter job wide open, there might be real opportunities). I also suspect that the Twins would want a longer look on Brooks Raley because he just has not been around much and they might need to make a decision on his 40-man roster spot.
     
    There is not much pressure to cut non-roster invitees (because they do not have to be in the Major League DL, receive ML pay and have their clocks ticking, if there is an injury during camp,) but I suspect that some will be cut as well. Sean Gilmartin would be a good candidate from this group because of the opportunity to get stretched in Minor League games. Also with the reduction in pitchers, the Twins are likely to demote a catcher or two, because they do not need them, with Stuart Turner and Matt Koch being the most likely. Even though Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett are having a hard time hitting the ball, I suspect that the Twins will give them every opportunity to succeed in Spring Training. This might not be the case for Chris Rahl who sees fellow non-roster outfielder invitees Jermaine Mitchell, Darin Mastroianni and Wilkin Ramirez performing better than him.
     
    Here are the latest battle dashboards updated for today's game (and you can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :
     
    A reminder of the scoring system:
     
     


    For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "
    Game Score". It is calculated as follows:








    You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
    Add 1 point for each out.
    Add 1 point for each strikeout.
    Subtract 2 points for each hit.
    Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
    Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
    Subtract 1 point for each walk.
    There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.
     
    Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
    everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
    and everything below 49 "below average" (red).


     

    For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:







    Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
    Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
    Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
    Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
    subtract 1 for each error,
    for catchers add 1 for each CS
    Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.
     
    Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:
     
    Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
    Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
    Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0







    Players on the 40-man roster are in bold. The ones without options are also underlined. Lefty pitchers are in italics.







    Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:









    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3561/13023264433_20ff891743_o.jpg








    And for the Twins' pitchers:









    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2627/13023264663_129d2596d1_o.jpg



  16. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Yesterday I speculated about the first cuts of the Spring Training for the Minnesota Twins. This morning the Twins announced these cuts and there were only a couple names I have not mentioned yesterday. After these 16 cuts, the Twins now have 48 players in the major league camp. Here is the full list of the cuts:
     
    40-man roster:
     
    Optioned to AAA Rochester Red Wings:
     
    LHP Logan Darnell
    LHP Edgar Ibarra
    LHP Brooks Raley
    RHP Trevor May
     
    Optioned to AA New Britain Rock Cats:
     
    1B Kennys Vargas
     
    Optioned to A+ Fort Myers Miracle:
     
    OF Max Kepler
    SS Jorge Polanco
     
    Non-roster invitees:
    Re-assigned to the Minor League Camp:
     
    OF Byron Buxton
    C Kyle Knudson
    C Matt Koch
    RHP Alex Meyer
    RHP Lester Oliveros
    RHP Yohan Pino
    OF Chris Rahl
    3B Miguel Sano
    C Stuart Turner
     
    The only surprises that I did not see yesterday, were Oliveros, Pino, Raley and Buxton. I thought that the Twins might want a longer look at the first 3, and even-though Buxton looked over-matched, I thought that they might want him to hang around a bit longer. It made sense to cut another catcher, since they re-assigned more pitchers than I thought.
     
    Even more importantly is who did not get cut, especially among players who never played in the majors and are on the 40-man roster. It was not a surprise, but a confirmation that the Twins will not hang the starting SS job to Pedro Florimon, without taking a long look at Danny Santana (and Eduardo Escobar,) both of whom are having a great Spring. Also not a surprise that the Twins let the two Jasons (Bartlett and Kubel) be around a little longer, even though they are definitely not performing.
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607103336_d44c2a4bd1_z.jpg

  17. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    The Twins lost to the Baltimore Orioles' travel squad yesterday in a pretty bad way (11-5.) Here are the Spring Training Battle Dashboards updated after yesterday's game:
     
    For position players:
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7424/12966868145_25dfce691f.jpg

     
     
    For pitchers
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2214/12966868315_0c1783496e.jpg

     
     
    Scott Diamond's performance, even though collectively awful, and reflected by the lowest Game Score this season, it was a tale of two innings: He pitched a really excellent fifth inning (which actually made me think that he might be a decent choice for the pen potentially, if he does not make the rotation,) and a really really poor sixth inning with balls going all over the place and a hard time throwing strikes. What was the difference?
     
    In the fifth inning he pitched fast and had a very fluid delivery. One single fluid non-stop motion. In the sixth inning he was tentative and looked like he was thinking too much about what he was throwing and it was a lot like last season. When Diamond does that, he tends to do this exaggerated pause at the end of his delivery and it is very noticeable with his back leg: The foot hangs up in the air with the cleats facing upwards and his his body parallel to the ground, and he stays there immobile for a full second or two, as the pitch is traveling to the plate and he is watching it hit the glove (or the bat or the dirt) in this position.
     
    Like this:
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7319/12966869565_cbcb83ec2a_z.jpg

     
    It might make a pretty interesting yoga posture, but not good baseball: That pitch is almost in the glove, the delivery should have ended, both feet should be on the ground and he should be ready to field his position. And all those things mentioned in the previous sentence were there for Diamond the previous (successful) inning.
     
    I don't think that it is a cause and effect relationship (as if the exaggerated pausing and posturing would cause bad pitches) but a symptom of maybe forcing it up there or thinking too much or trying to be too perfect, instead of just pitching and letting go. He did the same pausing at the end of his delivery all last season.
     
    Just another thing to watch this Spring.
  18. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
    Less than a month for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers so it is about time for you to make your arrangements to go to Fort Myers and it is about time for the third annual Fort Myers Guides, which will be updates from last years' guides. Also, as a retrospect after I return, I will do a "bargain guide to Spring Training in Fort Myers" to really try to give hints on how to get there, stay there, eat there and attend Twins' games and spend as much as possible. Will make this an annual feature as well. But there will be budget minded features in every one of the main guides.
     
    Last season there were three Spring Training Guides: Last year's logistics' guide is here, baseball guide here, and the food guide here. This season there will be three guides and will be different than last year's based on my experiences from the last season. This is the first guide: The Spring Training Logistics Guide, where the area is described and the best and least expensive ways of getting to the Twins' Spring Training home. Knowing what I know now last season, I could have saved at least a couple hundred dollars in airfare, at least that much in a hotel and about that much in a car rental, money better spent watching the Twins and buying Twins' (and Miracle) gear. As a bonus, I will list the official Twins' hotel, which is the place where a lot of Twins' people stay and a great place to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff.
     
    The second guide will be all about baseball. What is going on at the Training Complex, tips and tricks about watching the games at Hammond Stadium (based on my fresh experience from last year and the changes in the ballpark) and other ballparks you might want to visit. This with be the Spring Training Baseball Guide.
     
    The third guide will be a Food Guide to Fort Myers and will be a fusion of the last 2 years guides, with additions.
     
    These guides are mainly from the Twins' perspective but useful for Red Sox' (and soon Nationals') fans
     
    How to get to Fort Myers:
     
    Unless you want to have a non-rental car with you (a good choice if you are a player or will be there for a month or so, or you live close to Fort Myers) flying is probably the best choice. There is a local airport (Southeast Florida International, code: RSW) served by a variety of airlines, but there are a total of about 75 flights a day into and out from there. Alternative airports are the larger Tampa International (TPA) and Miami International (MIA), about 2 and 2.5 hrs drive respectively as is the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) is slightly over an hour drive from Fort Myers and slightly larger airport than the Southwest Florida International at Fort Myers. Fort Lauderdale (FLL) is also an option, and a potentially fairly attractive one if your home airport has airlines like Frontier, Spirit and Allegient and you are willing to fly them, because they have inexpensive and relatively frequent flights there. Flying into Fort Myers is probably the most expensive option in the list but you do not have to drive far. Also, the TSA checkpoints in the return trip are a mess. Budget an extra hour to go through. My favorite option: Orlando.
     
    Orlando International (MCO) is about 3 hrs away from Fort Myers, but it offers the benefit of having the lowest airfare and lowest car rental prices in Florida, in combination to more that 60 mainstream carrier flights daily. Plus, as a bonus, if you have a family, you can spend a few days there with the kids, which will help them palate more 8+ hrs of baseball-related stuff that you would do once at Fort Myers. As far as airfare prices go and where to find the best ones, go to the ITA Matrix software portal, chose the "show a calendar of lowest fares" and play with it. This is the tool that travel agents are using. Once you find a flight, go online to the airline or an online travel agency and reserve it. My fares in and out of MCO have been in the $150-200 range from the North East, but fares change depending on departing city. Another Orlando alternative is Sanford International Airport (SFB) that is preferred by several low cost carriers, such as Allegiant. You might also want to look at neighboring airports to your home town within driving distance for potential lower fares.
     
     
     
    As far as rental cars go (and you do need one since the public transportation in Fort Myers is non-existent,) the best value in Florida is Dollar. And here is a trick: Go to the Dollar web site and register to be an express member for free. This way you will have the car waiting in a predetermined spot and you by-pass the counter. Next, make your reservation, by selecting view all car types and picking the least expensive option. Once you make your reservation, check it often and early and "modify" it to see if there are any lower prices posted. Dollar is notorious of dropping their car prices, especially close to the reservation dates. I usually rent cars at about $12-16 a day. But you have to check and change those prices a lot. Refuse the automatic toll machine ($8ish/day) and the GPS ($13ish a day) and deal with the insurance as you normally do (i.e. if you refuse because you are covered by your own car, refuse it.)
     
    If you want to drive down there, the fastest was to get there is via I-75 that goes through the town. From most points of the Midwest or Northwest, the best way is to catch I-75 around the Metro Atlanta area. From South and South West, I-10 hits I-75 in North Florida about an hour east of Jacksonville. From the East Coast, the best bet would be I-95 all the way to Daytona Beach, then I-4 through Orlando and catching I-75 at Tampa. If you live at the Twin Cities area, Minneapolis is about 1700 miles away from Fort Myers, which means about 3 days of 8 hours driving each, each way. Enjoy
     
    If you are planning to fly to Orlando and drive south, do not go through Tampa and take I-75. Take I-4 to I-17 south, through Winter Heaven (the abandoned now former Spring Training home of the Red Sox) to Arcadia, to Port Charlotte (Spring Training Home of the Rays). It is a great ride through orange orchards (and road side stands to purchase them) and small farming towns. Will give you a totally different perspective of Florida.
     
     
    This is a map of South & Central Florida, to let you see where Fort Myers is situated in Florida (all maps and satellite images used in this post are screen shots from Bing maps) :
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7210/6870615689_9c49c11ca4_z.jpg
     
     
    The Metro Area and the City:
     
    Fort Myers (and, btw, it is not Ft. Myers) is the smallest of 3 cities in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan area. It has about 62,000 people, whereas the Metro has about 650,000 people most of them living in Cape Coral, a city planned and started in the late 50s as a huge retirement community. Interestingly enough the planners wanted to make every property close to water, so they created and extensive system of Canals. Cape Coral has more miles of navigable waterways than any city in the world, including Venice (Italy, not FL) and Amsterdam. About 400 miles of canals. Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Pine Island are popular beach front communities with a lot of beach-related tourism.
     
    Here is a photo of the Cape Coral- Fort Myers metro:
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7041/6870615619_08f2faa40c_z.jpg
     
    An important note, especially to people from northern climates: Average temperatures in March are 80 for high and 60 for low, so make sure that you pack sunscreen, hats, glasses, shorts, t-shirts and a swimsuit, if you are so inclined. And if you get sunburns, you will get a sunburn there, so please plan accordingly
     
    The city of Fort Myers itself is very easily navigated. Here is a map of the City with the Twins' Spring Training Headquarters noted with an orange Marker:
     
     
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7188/6870615475_684c7baa2a_z.jpg
     
    You can click here for a larger picture in a new window.
     
    Really important note if you have not been in that part of the world before, and you like to do outdoor activities like running:
     
    Be diligent around bodies of water, like ponds, canals, lakes etc. Those floating things that look like branches are not branches, they are alligators. And there is a ton of them.
     
     
    Where to Stay:
     
    The Fort Myers Airport is about 6 miles due west from Hammonds Stadium and the Spring Training Complex. Daniels Parkway (that becomes Cypress Lake Dr in the City) will take you from the Airport to the town and the Twins' complex. If you are on a budget and looking for a hotel, the ones on Daniels Parkway and that area west of I-75 offer good bargains and are fairly close to the Twins' Spring Training Complex. Another area for reasonable accommodations is the S. Cleveland Avenue North of Page Field.
     
    Mostly everything can be found within a large triangle defined by S. Cleveland Ave to the West, Colonial Blvd to the North and the Ben C. Pratt Pkwy going Northeast to Southwest. The Twins' Spring training complex is on the South part of Ben C. Pratt Pkwy, just South of Daniels Pkwy. Traffic, other than when the games are over, is not an issue at Fort Myers.
     
    If you want to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff, the Twins' official/unofficial hotel in the Fort Myers' area is the Hilton Garden Inn Fort Myers (not the one by the airport, but the one "in town").
     
    Alternatively you can stay at Naples (offers more things to do at night) or Port Charlotte (offers less expensive rooms and it is the Rays' Spring Training Home). Both are about half an hour easy drive away.
     
    The best bargains for Hotels (unless you are a frequent guest and can use points for free rooms) are either Hotwire or Hotels.com, but the establishments are sometimes name-less so it can be a gamble. On the other hand, if you stay pretty close to the ballpark and away from the downtown area, there are not any seedy places.
     
     
    Budget pick for a hotel: Knight's Inn Arcadia, at around $50 a night. About 45 minutes away from Hammond Stadium. In town, Crestwood Suites is around $70 a night (stay away from hotels cheaper than that price point at Fort Myers).
     
     
     
    The Twins' Spring Training Complex:
     
    Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex:
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7062/6870615187_617fab61b1_b.jpg
     
    More about the complex, how and when to get there and all the things about the Twins' Spring Training home in the next guide.
  19. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    As in the past few years I will use dashboards to keep track of the performance of the Twins' players during Spring Training in order to get a numerical and visual representation of who is doing what, of the players who are battling for a position on the 40-man roster. With few games in and the first cuts coming early next week, it might be a good time for the first one of these.
     
    To determine that, we need to figure out who are the "locks" to come up North with the Twins.
     
    As far as position players go, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and Josh Willingham are locks for starting positions. Kurt Suzuki is also a lock to make the 25-man roster, but not a lock to start, so he is included in the list. A lot of people might think that Pedro Florimon might also be a lock, but I think that he has to work to make it up North.
     
    The major Spring Battles for position players are: The starting and backup catcher jobs, the starting SS job, the starting DH job, two of the starting OFs, and bench positions.
     
    As far as the rotation goes, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey are locks. Kevin Correia might still be considered a lock by man, however he could potentially be beaten for the fourth spot in the rotation and get traded before Spring Training. In addition, the fifth spot in the rotation is wide-open.
     
    As far as the pen goes, the only locks I see are Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, again pending trades. The starting pitcher combatants for the last rotation spot(s) could also gain positions in the pen.
     
    From the list I excluded players like Kennys Vargas, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler et al who will not make the Twins out of Spring Training.
     
    A reminder of the scoring system:
     


    For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "
    Game Score". It is calculated as follows:








    You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
    Add 1 point for each out.
    Add 1 point for each strikeout.
    Subtract 2 points for each hit.
    Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
    Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
    Subtract 1 point for each walk.
    There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.
     
    Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
    everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
    and everything below 49 "below average" (red).


     

    For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:







    Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
    Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
    Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
    Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
    subtract 1 for each error,
    for catchers add 1 for each CS
    Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.
     
    Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:
     
    Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
    Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
    Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0







    Players on the 40-man roster are in bold. The ones without options are also underlined. Lefty pitchers are in italics.







    Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7417/12938185454_9148dee6eb_o.png










    And here for the Pitchers:












    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7375/12937878823_9dc4fab48e_o.png





  20. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Today the Minnesota Twins unofficially had their first game of the Spring Training, which was an intrasquad contest. Here are some of my thoughts from what happened in this game:
     
     

    Pitchers seem to be well ahead of hitters:
    Phil Hughes pitched 2 scoreless innings throwing 21 out of 27 strikes, striking out 4 (including Buxton and Sano) and his FB was 91/92 mph
    Kevin Correia also pitched 2 run-free innings with 14/26 strikes, a K and a BB.
    Kyle Gibson hit 94 mph on the gun and also pitched 2 scoreless innings (18/25 strikes)

     
    [*]Phil Hughes said that he will not throw the slider (a pitch he primarily threw in 2013 and a lot, 21.3% of his pitches were sliders; but with not much success, resulting in -0.8 runs per 100 pitches) and will replace it with a slow curve (9% of his pitches last season with about average success) and a cutter, a pitch he did not throw consistently since 2011. The cutter was very good in 2009 and 2010 but not as good in 2011 and he abandoned it. A curve is a pitcher that he will throw primarily against LHBs and the cutter (and slider) against RHBs.
    [*]I am not convinced that Kevin Correia will be with the Twins for a long time. I can see Gibson pushing him to the trading block during Spring Training
    [*]Eduardo Escobar played 3B (replacing Sano) which is his worst fielding position, instead of Shortstop (his best fielding position; he won the Gold Glove for the Venezuela Winter League this off-season). I feel that Escobar can replace Florimon as the Twins' starting shortstop, if given a chance and it is frustrating to see Gardenhire playing him out of position.
    [*]The big boys did really well defensively

    Miquel Sano had several good plays at third base including several strong throws, which is good news for the shape of his elbow
    Kennys Vargas maybe made the defensive play of the game with a diving stop and throw to the pitcher (Worley) who was covering first. Both of these guys' defense is better than certain people might want you to believe

     
    [*]I hope that Byron Buxton's performance today (0-3, 3K, 1BB late in the game) will land on earth the fans who think he should be the Twins' starting Centerfielder in 2014. He has a great future, but patience is needed.
    [*]Josmil Pinto played today, which is good news meaning that his back is better, but Rob Antony said on the radio that the Twins think that he came to Spring Training "a bit heavy", which is bad news, because it sounds like the Twins' brass is preparing the ground for a demotion and going with Suzuki as the starter, a non-optimal situation.


     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8124/8607106528_5592ff77b8_z.jpg

  21. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -------
     
    Multiple reports today, including a formal announcement by the Twins' twitter, indicate that the Twins selected LHP Brooks Raley off waivers from the Cubs' organization.
     
    Who is Brooks Raley?
     
    Brooks Raley was drafted by the Cubs in the 6th Round of the 2009 draft from Texas A&M, 8 picks after the Twins selected C Chris Herrmann from Miami, and there is a good possibility that the pair will form part of the Rochester Redwings battery in 2014. Raley has had September call ups to the majors both of the last seasons, starting 5 games with the Cubs in 2012 (1-2, 24.3 IP, 8.14 ERA, 6.88 FIP, 11 BB, 16 K, 1.81 WHIP) and relieving in 9 games in 2013 (14 IP, 5.14 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 8 BB, 14 K, 1.46 WHIP). His career minor league numbers are 107 G, 102 GS, 555.3 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.13 K/BB; which are not stellar.
     
    Raley has four pitches: A high 80s fastball, a high 70s slider, a high 70s change up (his best pitch) and a low 70s curveball. He is not a control artist but he flashes good command.
     
    At first place, the presence of lefties Kris Johnson, Sean Gilmartin, Pat Dean & Logan Darnell in the organization and potentially slated for a spot in the Rochester rotation, makes this acquisition somewhat of a head scratcher. A quick look at his MLB career splits shows that LHB hit a collective .194/.293/.306 off Raley, which indicates that there might be a future as a LHRP, for someone who makes every MLB lefty he faces look like Drew Butera at the plate. This makes this acquisition look like it might make sense in the big schema of things... After the Gilmartin acquisition, I indicated that Gilmartin would have probably been in the high 20s on my off-season top 40 prospect list, if he was a Twin when I made it. Raley would have not made the cut. As a 40-man roster member he will be in the big club Spring Training starting this weekend.
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7294/12489136195_dccec28b5c_z.jpg

  22. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Today the Minnesota Twins have finalized their agreement with South Korea's Hanwha Eagles, selling LHP Andrew Albers' contract. It is a good move for Albers who will be compensated close to $1 million, while he would have had a hard time cracking the Twins' and potentially even the Red Wings' rotations, after the acquisitions of Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey at the major league level and Kris Johnson and Sean Gilmartin at the minor league level.
     
    Albers was the recipient of the 2013 Jim Rantz award as the Minnesota Twins' minor league pitcher of the year. Since its inception in 2003, only one pitcher who won the award (Kyle Gibson) is still with the Twins and, arguably, bad luck followed every single recipient and in most cases within one year from winning this award?
     
    Is there a curse of Jim Rantz? I am not sure, but here is a list of the recipients and their respective misfortunes. The players who had something happen within a year are listed in bold:
     
    2013: Andrew Albers - Contract Sold to South Korean's Hanwha Eagles 2014
    2012: BJ Hermsen - Removed off the 40 man roster 2013
    2011: Liam Hendriks - Designated for Assignement 2013
    2010: Kyle Gibson - Tommy John Surgery 2011
    2009: David Bromberg - Released 2012
    2008: Anthony Slama - released 2013
    2007: Kevin Slowey - Traded 2011
    2006: Matt Garza - Traded 2007
    2005: Fransisco Liriano - Tommy John Surgery 2006
    2004: Scott Baker - Tommy John Surgery 2012
    2003: Jesse Crain - Shoulder Surgery 2007, 2013
     
    Thus, aspiring not to win this award might be something that Twins' prospects should consider.
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3754/12106373166_58e172a901_o.jpg

  23. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Last month, I examined in depth the re-signing of Mike Pelfrey to a two year contact by the Minnesota Twins, suggesting that he, indeed, can be a steal for the Twins for many reasons. Today, I am looking at the biggest free agent spending from the Minnesota Twins ever, the signing of Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contact with an option of a 5th year, just before Thanksgiving. In the near future, I will look at the signing of Phil Hughes, to complete the profiles of the 2 new, and one not so new, Twins' starting pitchers.
     
    Rickey Nolasco by far is the most experienced pitcher in the Twins rotation and the Twins have him under contract for his age 31 through 34 seasons with the option covering his age 35 season. How good is Ricky Nolasco? The general sentiment, both from the main press and blogs covering the Twins has been that Nolasco is a mid-rotation type of starter, who can eat innings, and it is fairly durable (in a Carl Pavano way) but by no means he is a top of the rotation starter.
     
    Let's dig a little deeper now that the dust has settled and the holiday period has passed. Nolasco has been a darling in this space since about 5 years before the Twins signed him, because in his early years of pitching for the Marlins (look at this post from 11/2008, for example) he has been among elite company in pitching rankings. His numbers have been up and down the past few seasons after the first seasons with the Marlins (which earn him 3 opening day starts for them,) thus it make sense to look a bit deeper. And the way I will be looking is utilizing PE, xPE, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (please read this writeup for a primer about these measurements, what they do and the reasoning for their use). I am also doing a couple more things. I compare him to a particular Twins' pitcher, and using color coding, I am examining how both of their annual performances fit in a good rotation, using this key:
     


    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5495/10909709863_0950d3e269_o.jpg

     
     
    Here are the numbers:
     
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3705/11928318545_5bb82c903c_o.jpg






    Nolasco's are on top, and Brad Radke's are on the bottom. Because of the inability to calculate xFIP and SIERA in the early year's of Radke's career, I have added FIP as well. However, as I show
    here, xFIP (and SIERA) correlate better with xPE than FIP, so the xPE comparisons are close to xFIP and SIERA comparisons.






    Based on this, Nolasco has a season (age 26) where he performed like an Ace, 2 seasons (ages 25 and 27) where he performed as a number one or two, two seasons that he performed as number two or three (age 28 and age 30), two seasons that he performed as a number three or four (age 23 and 29) and one replacement level season (age 24.) Clearly, his performance overall has been better than Brad Radke's performance overall.







    A couple more comparison charts:







    Here is Nolasco's and Radke's FIP compared annually since season age 22 (just for Radke, Nolasco was not in the bigs then) :








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7307/11929174766_6ca53d3583_o.jpg














    For the same age, other than age 24, Nolasco has had a very similar, but lower FIP than Radke in every season. and in the ages 26 and 30 seasons (that was 2013 for Nolasco), Nolasco's FIP was significantly lower than Radke's.







    And here are their xPE comparisons (higher is better) over the same span:








    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7443/11929174916_5a3bd7aa75_o.jpg










    The xPE paints a bit of a more dramatic picture: other than the ages 24 and 28 (this is a difference with FIP) season, Nolasco's pitching was much better than Radke's at the same ages. However, there is a potential tale of caution, not obvious with the FIP chart: Looking at both xPE and FIP, Radke's peak was his age 28-32 seasons with age 31 being his absolute best, before the shoulder issues kicked. Nolasco's FIP is low enough in his age 30 season, but his xPE from his age 28 season one, has not quite reached his xPE peak of his career best (so far) at age 26. The jump in his age 30 season is encouraging and hopefully indicates that the best is still to come and Nolasco is indeed still in his peak years, but the drop is something to keep in mind.







    So what do the Twins have in Nolasco? A pitcher who has pitcher close to, but better overall, than Brad Radke in a year by year comparison and who has been top of the rotation pitcher. And based on the regard that the Twins' fanbase has for Brad Radke, anyone who follows the Twins should be thrilled with the Ricky Nolasco signing.


  24. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    "Clutch" is a word that has been used to describe the players who go above and beyond the norm and perform highly in difficult situations in close games: The guy who comes into the game with 2 outs and the bases loaded, down three in the bottom of the ninth and hits a grand slam off a closer who never blew a save. The pitcher who comes in with bases loaded and no outs, up one on the bottom of the ninth and strikes out the side to save the game. Whether or not there are players out there who are "clutch" and consistently outperform themselves in those type of situations has been a vast subject of debate. Here is a good summary of a few historic studies and here is a list of lots of links on the subject, if you feel like reading more.
     
    About 5 years ago, David Appelman devised a measurement called, well, "Clutch" that tries to describe clutch hitting and pitching. Basically what it does, is it looks at the difference of someone's performance (based on Win Probability Added) in High Leverage situations only, versus his overall performance. Players with positive Clutch outperform their overall performance in those situations and players with negative Clutch underperform. This does not mean that a player with a higher Clutch is a "better" player than one with lower Clutch. If someone hits .220 with the bases loaded and .200 overall, is not a better player than someone who hits .320 with the bases loaded and .340 overall, despite the Clutch numbers.
     
    Fangraphs picked the stat now and I sorted the Twins hitters, relief pitchers and starting pitchers based on Clutch. This is an exercise just for fun. I don't think that it means that much (see example above), but it is interesting and it potentially be an additional tool for player evaluation, but not a stand alone tool. Situational and High Leverage performance definitely might tell something about relievers as a group, but we are not about to jump into any conclusions here. Just a demo
     
    Here are the 2013 Twins' hitters ranked by Clutch (60 PA min) :
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2866/11820134366_5e90eacd0e_o.jpg

     
     
    Here are the 2013 Twins' relief pitchers ranked by Clutch (10 IP min):
     


    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5525/11819784464_a6e035295d_o.jpg

     
     
    Here are the 2013 Twins' starting pitchers ranked by Clutch (35 IP min):
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3713/11819635523_ff2a441b27_o.jpg

     
     
    Pitchers in both roles are listed on both tables for that role only. A couple of observations:
     
     

    The Twins definitely do not use or value the metric, since about half of the players with positive Clutch numbers are gone
    I am not surprised to see Dozier and Duensing lead the hitter and the reliever groups respectively. It is my recollection that they really excelled in pressure situations
    Worley leading the starter group may be a surprise, until someone considers that, in order to pitch in a high leverage situation, a starter needs to get himself into trouble to make that situation high leverage. Thus, Clutch, is not very useful at all for starters (other than looking at fun results like the above...)

  25. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance (which ended with a pulled groin that made him miss a chunk of Spring Training and 44 games with the Twins) and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, made many people in the Twins Cities call Samuel Deduno an"Ace". This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look here, here, here, here and here.)
     
    Not sure whether calling Deduno an "Ace" (which, of course, he never was; being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent change of staying close in a game, an "Ace" does not make) caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterwards, because of an injury that caused him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery the Fall, making his trip up North breaking camp with the Twins pretty dubious.
     
    When (then interim) General Manager Terry Ryan, returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several places that needed change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek, the retirement of Steve Liddle and the "no scholarships" approach about certain players like Tsuyosi Nishioka, and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer Rick McWane, establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011.
     
    How well have those changes worked in 2013? Let's look at the chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, with stories from last August on as they happened, and let the readers reach their own conclusions:
     
    August 7: Deduno allows 4 runs in 5.7 innings in loss to Royals giving up 12 hits.
     
    August 13: He allows 5 runs in 6 innings in loss to Indians; 5 hits and 3 bases on balls.
     
    August 18: Allows 5 runs in 5 innings. Allows 8 hits. After the game Deduno speaks to the press indicating he has shoulder problems. He said that "It started behind the shoulder a couple weeks ago [August 7] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [August 13]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong."
     
    [In other words, Deduno makes 3 starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff]
     
    The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes Electronic Stimulation Therapy (a muscle therapy).
     
    August 19: Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff diagnose the condition as bicep tendinitis
     
    August 21: Deduno throws bullpen and says he feels fine
     
    August 22: Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in 6 innings in a win at Cleveland. 3 hits, 4 bases on balls
     
    August 29: Starts against the Royals. Allows 3 runs in 3 innings against the Royals. Out with shoulder soreness.
     
    [In other words, Deduno makes 2 additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues]
     
    August 30: Deduno placed on of the 15-day DL
     
    September 8: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL
     
    September 9: The Twins' GM talks to the press about Deduno. Saying that he might need shoulder surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates that Deduno is "battling inflammation" and says that he is "sure that it is scar-tissue related"
     
    September 9 (later in the day): The Twins announce that Deduno has "issues in his labrum and rotator cuff" and might need "just a clean up"
     
    September 13: The Twins indicate that Deduno has "Fraying in the shoulder" recovery timetable is set to two months, should be ready on the onset of Spring Training
     
    September 20: Announcement that Deduno has successful arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery (by his agent) reparing "slight fraying" and "slight tear".
     
    December 9: Twins indicate that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for Spring Training.
     
    Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signs three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation. Terry Ryan after the season publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show that he does not count on Deduno. Whether he will be ready for Spring Training or not, it will be seen, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20.
     
    It has to be noted that Deduno has been very fragile. Here is his injury and lost days history in his professional career:
     
    Missed 30 days of 2013 with Right Shoulder injury
    Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with Groin injury
    Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury
    Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury
    Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation)
    Missed 22 days of 2009 with Hip Flexor injury
    Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery
    Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury
     
    The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his Right Shoulder, Groin and Hip, and Right Elbow (and unfortunately even after Tommy John Surgery) have been his problem areas. The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome...
     
    I hope that Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of the future, he is not to be counted on to have the ball every fifth day.
     


    http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Samuel+Deduno+Cleveland+Indians+v+Minnesota+Xce3dNpDXAQl.jpg

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