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Thrylos

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  1. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    The major priority of the Minnesota Twins' General Manager, Terry Ryan, has been to re-build a rotation that has been at the bottom of the major leagues in pretty much every statistical category in 2014. There is a general agreement that the rotation was pretty much "a mess" in 2013 and needed fixing. There is also the general impression that the Twins' pen was one of the strengths of the team and it is better left alone. However, this impression is false because in 2013 the Twins' pen ranked:
     
    17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as ERA goes
    17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as FIP goes
    17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as SIERA goes
    8th out of 30 MLB teams as far as WHIP goes
    19th out of 30 MLB teams as far as K% goes
     
    In other words, the Twins' pen, which compared to the Twins' rotation seemed great, when compared to the rest of the major league pens is proven to be average at best.
     
    Busted myth number one: The Twins' pen was not great in 2013 and, while it might have been a bright point in 2013 compared to the rest of the team, it does not cut the mustard compared to the rest of league.
     
    There is a lot of room for improvement and I suspect that Terry Ryan will address before Spring Training, since that will go a long way for the Twins to be competitive in 2014.
     
    After the recent additions of new and returning starting pitchers there have been arguments that the Twins have too many starting pitchers and there is a logjam or pitchers on the Twins' roster.
     
    I thought that it might be a good time to take a breath and look at what the Twins have on their 40-man roster as far as pitching goes, and see whether this argument is true or not.
     
    Here is the Twins' 40 man roster (alphabetically) broken down in groups (players in bold are out of options):
     
    Group A: Starting pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons.
     
    Kevin Correia (RHSP)
    Phil Hughes (RHSP)
    Rick Nolasco (RHSP)
    Mike Pelfrey (RHSP)
     
     
     
    Group B: Relief pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons or offered arbitration.
     
    Jared Burton (RHRP)
    Brian Duensing (LHSP/RP)
    Glen Perkins (LHRP)
    Anthony Swarzak (RHSP/RP)
     
     
    Group C: Starting pitchers with no options with small contacts who played in the majors for more than 3 seasons.
     
    Sam Deduno (RHSP)
    Scott Diamond (LHSP)
    Vance Worley (RHSP)
     
    Group D: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who played in the majors for at least one season.
     
    Andrew Albers (LHSP)
    Casey Fien (RHRP)
    Kyle Gibson (RHSP)
    Kris Johnson (LHSP)
    Ryan Pressly (RHRP)
    Caleb Thielbar (LHRP)
    Michael Tonkin (RHRP)
     
     
    Group E: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who never played in the majors.
     
    Logan Darnell (LHSP)
    Edgar Ibarra (LHRP)
    Trevor May (RHSP)
     
     
    Broken down this way, the perceived logjam of Twins' staring pitchers becomes pretty clear:
     
    The Twins usually have a 12 man pitching staff. They currently have 4 starters and 4 relievers (groups A and who are pretty much guaranteed a job. This opens 4 more positions, one in the rotation and 3 in the pen. If you assume that the Twins value all pitchers in Group C who are out of options, they have the space to find them all a major league job, as well as allow another pitcher, likely from Group D or potentially outside the organization, to gain a rotation or bullpen position. The rest of the players will provide depth in AAA and be there in case of emergency or potentially be offered in trades to fill additional needs, like position players.
     
    Busted myth number two: There is no pitching logjam on the Twins' roster.
     
    In other words, the Twins do have a lot of pitching depth in their 40-man roster, but they are not in a logjam situation where they cannot accommodate all their pitchers without options on their 25-man roster. And this assumes that Samuel Deduno who is recuperating from double (labrum and rotation cuff) shoulder surgery is available to start the season, which is an extremely optimistic approach right now.
     
    While it is too early to name names to complete the rotation and the pen, because changes will likely happen before spring training, this early clearly the Twins are not in any sort of a pitching logjam and also have plenty of options.
     


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  2. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    It has been reported that the Minnesota Twins have Signed 30 year old C Kurt Suzuki to an 1 year $2.75 million contract plus incentives. He will provide catching depth, allowing the Twins to pace the use of Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann at the catcher position in a way that it is most appropriate for them. He would also act as insurance, in case one or both of the rookies need additional work at AAA. The Twins would need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Suzuki, which likely means that 28 year old Eric Fryer, who was slated for this role now filled by Suzuki, will be taken off the 40-man roster and designated for assignement.
     
    The 5'11", 200 lbs, Suzuki, who is from Hawaii, was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 2nd round of the 2004 MLB June Amateur Draft from California State University Fullerton. He flew threw the Athletics system at a pace of a level a year starting as a 20 year old in short season A Vancouver and ended up starting 2007 in AAA Sacramento. Baseball America had him ranked as the 89th best prospect in Baseball before that season. Mid-season 2007 he made his debut with the Athletics where he stayed until the 2012 trading deadline when he was traded to the Washington Nationals. He returned to the Athletics, traded back by the Nationals this trading deadline, to support thens in their post-season run in 2013.
     
    His career slash line is .253/.309/.375 (.685 OPS, 86 OPS+). The right hand hitter seem to be consistently declining with the bat since his age 25, 2010 season when he hit .274/.313/.421 (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+) . Last season between the Nationals and the Athletics he hit .232/.290/.337 (.627 OPS, 73 OPS+) in 94 games (316 PAs), which is what the Twins should probably be expecting from him (in fewer PAs) in 2014 and his $2.75 million one year contract reflects this. He is a right hand hitter but hits both lefties and righties equally.
     
    Suzuki does not walk a lot, but he does not strike out a lot either (about 8% BB rate and 10% K rate). He makes contact, but does not have much power. He is a good bunter and can move runners on; also suited for hit and run plays. Suzuki's defense behind the plate, his ability to block balls in the dirt, to make hard plays and to stall runners has been praised. So has his clubhouse presence. So has his game calling by managers and his pitchers. He has been extremely healthy spending only 24 days in the 15-day DL in his career for an intercostal muscle strain in 2010. Even if he might not be able to contribute with the bat as a starter, he would be an invaluable mentor for both Pinto and Herrmann. All in all a great addition for the Twins.
     
     


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  3. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    The Minnesota Twins in an effort to reduce the logjam in the DH/OF position have traded Ryan Doumit to the Atlanta Braves for 23 year old minor league LHP prospect Sean Gilmartin. The 6'2", 200 lbs Gilmartin was the Braves' 1st round (28th overall) pick of the 2011 draft. Before he was drafted, he was named All American from Baseball America and before the 2012 season he was ranked as the Braves' 5th best prospect, and 4th best before the 2013 season.
     
    Currently, he is ranked as the Braves' 10th best prospect for 2014 by Baseball America that also ranks his change up as the best in the Braves' system and suggest that he has 4th starter upside. This is good, otherwise Gilmartin sounds a lot likea prototypical Twins' lefty: High 80s-Low 90s average fastball with few strikeouts (6.3 K/9 in AAA in 128.7 IP, and 6.5 K/9 in AA in 119.3 IP), who needs impecable command and control to survive. His change up is a truly plus pitch and sits in the low 80s. He has a low 80s above average to plus slider that he uses almost exclusively against LHBs while he prefers an also above average slow (low 70s) 12-6 curveball against RHBs. His mechanics are good and his delivery pretty smooth.
     
    Gilmartin needs to have exceptional command and control with his average fastball in order to keep his team in games. However, last season in AAA Gwinnett, that was not the case (and add some lackluster defense behind him and bad luck) and it showed. He finished the season with a 3-8 record, 5.74 ERA (4.61 FIP), 1.593 WHIP (.332 BABIP), 6.4 K/9 (15.8 K%) and 1.97 K/BB. A lot like a current Twins' LHP, but unlike Scott Diamond, Gilmartin has 3 above average to plus supplementary pitches and a full set of options. In addition he does not need to be on the 40 man roster, which opens a spot for Mike Pelfrey. Some of his control issues were potentially due to minor shoulder injury issues (tendinitis), which if corrected could be a good sign for Gilmartin and the Twins going forward.
     
    Gilmartin would have ranked some place in the 20s in my Minnesota Twins top 40 prospect list
     
    Effect on other Twins' players?
     
    With the addition of Kris Johnson and Sean Gilmartin and the existence of Logan Darnell on the 40 man roster and Pat Dean on the AAA roster, Andrew Albers falls even lower in the Twins' depth chart and might be moved. Scott Diamond is out of options and Johnson and now Gilmartin might offer a better alternative for depth in AAA, so he might moved as well. Caleb Thielbar who has options might lose his bullpen role to the optionless Diamond and start the season in AAA.
     
    The recently signed Jason Kubel has one less hurdle to clear to win a spot on the major league roster and be paid (with incentives) as much as Doumit was going to make.
     


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  4. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Late last week it was communicated, but not officially announced that the Minnesota Twins have reached agreement with Mike Pelfrey for a 2 year contract. The contract is for a base amount of $5.5 million per season and with the potential of additional $3.5 million in incentives through the life of the contract. Additional details about the incentives will be announced when the signing will be official.
     
    There has been a lot of noise in Twins' Territory about this signing, and most of it was negative. People look at Pelfrey's 5-13 record, accompanied by a 5.19 ERA and by the long time that Pelfrey took between pitches and wonder why the Twins re-signed a guy who is perceived as no better then what they already have.
     
    I have always been a Mike Pelfrey fan and here are the reasons why his re-signing could be a steal for the Twins.
     
    1. The Tommy John situation and already achieved improvement
     
    Pelfrey threw in his first real game a record 10 months after his surgery. To put it into perspective, Fransisco Liriano had his Tommy John Surgery on November 6, 2006 and pitched his first spring training game on March of 2008. Kyle Gibson had his on September of 2011 and pitched his first game on March of 2013. 2013 was a tale of 2 halfs for Pelfrey, even by the crude ERA measurement: His ERA by month was: April 7.66, May 5.90, June 4.66, July 3.25, August 3.60 and September 7.45. In other words, if he took 13 months to recover and ignore April and May, those are pretty good numbers. His September ERA (also aided by a .431 BABIP) could have been a product of fatigue. He finished the season with a 17.9% K% in the second half, which is really encouraging and easily led the Twins' starting pitchers. If one uses advanced metrics, he also led the Twins starters in FIP (3.99) and WAR (2.1); and those are full season and not second half only values
     
     
    2. He actually has excellent stuff.
     
    We all know of Pelfrey's fastball that sits at 92-93 and touches mid 90, easily the highest velocity of the Twins' 2013 rotation. Here is something very little known: He has a few other weapons that are rarely mentioned. I took all 2013 starting pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings in 2013 and sorted them by Slider Velocity. This is the resulting table:
     


    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5530/11419741106_166f96f99a_o.jpg

     
     
    As you can see, Mike Pelfrey has the 7th hardest slider in the majors. And this is big news. Looking at the names surrounding him, I cannot see a single name that Twins' fans would not be ecstatic to have.
     
    However, the other obvious thing from this list, is that he has not been throwing his slider enough (only 9.9% of the time) and mostly relies on his fastball (72.6%) of the time, unlike his peers in this list. I hope that it is elbow rehabilitation related and the further that he is removed from surgery, the more he will trust his elbow with the slider, like his peers. In addition, to the Fastball and Slider, he has a mid 80s Split Finger pitch that he throws as a change up and a slow mid-70s Curve, that last season he threw only about 10% of the time each.
     
     
    3. He was hurt by the Twins' defense.
     
    Again, I took all starters in the majors who pitched more than 150 innings and sorted them by BABIP, high to low and I also indicate WHIP. Here is the resulting table:
     


    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5515/11419724685_8f3ca87e68_z.jpg

     
     
    As you can see, Mike Pelfrey had the second worst BABIP in the majors. Normalize his WHIP for a league average BABIP and becomes close to Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson (normalized) levels.
     
    Why such a high BABIP? If you look at balls in play, he ranks 35th lowest (of the 96 pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings in 2013) in the percentage of line drives surrendered with 20.8%, which suggests that balls were not hit that hard. His fly ball percentage 36.0 % is the 35th highest in the same group. When you are a fly ball pitcher and have a combination of Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Arcia and Colabello at two out of three outfield positions, you are about to have a high BABIP and a lot of outs will become singles and doubles. Corner OF defense is something the Twins will have to address in 2014, in order to be successful.
     
     
    4. He has a lot of intangibles on his side.
     
    Pelfrey will not turn 30 until next month. He is in his prime and will be during the duration of the contract. He does not have a true change up, but has Bobby Cuellar around for 2 years and is young enough to do so, if he wants to add one to his repertoire (and it will be a good idea.)
     
    As I indicated here, yes, he was a human rain delay, but so were his teammates and this was an aberration from previous seasons, adding a full extra 3 seconds between pitches. I don't know whether that is related to shaking off secondary pitches and preferring the fastball because of the elbow, as shown above, but I suspect that it will improve next season.
     
     
    For what is worth, my math predict continuous improvement for Pelfrey, and my analysis on who the Twins should target in free agency had him (and Phil Hughes) in the list of 8.
     
    Also, he is a stellar clubhouse guy, a trait that has to be mentioned. At every stop in his career, teammates, managers and coaches have the best to say about Pelfrey.
     
    5. The monetary risk is not very much; this is a very small contract comparatively.
     
    The annual value of Pelfrey's contact is $5.5 million if he does not meet the incentives. To put the Twins' risk in dollars in perspective: $5.5 million is the exact amount the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to pitch in 2013.Also, if you believe in WAR-based monetary value, according to fangraphs, Mike Pelfrey's contribution to the Twins in 2013 (a down season) was worth $10.7 million dollars... The real point here is that the Twins will assume the risk they had when they had Nick Blackburn in 2012 and 2013.
  5. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    I have been counting down the Twins top 40 prospects with descriptions and scouting reports of the players, their potential, their likely destinations for 2014, and in some cases the reasons why they were ranked where they were. These detailed reports for prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here.
     
    I thought that a summary that contains my 1-40 list was in order, so there is perspective of all the rankings as a whole. A couple of things that I indicated in my earlier posts, regarding my rankings (pretty much verbatum) :
     
    There are a lot of prospect lists out there and they are all slightly different because different people value different qualities in a player, but they all serve a great singular purpose: to get to know the minor league players in an organization who otherwise would just be names in old draft boards and rarely seen box scores.
     
    I consider players who have played in the majors, as "graduating" from prospect status. You made big league money, you are not going to be in this list. Andrew Albers, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar and Michael Tonkin belong in this category. Secondly (and thirdly and fourthly) my criteria are slightly different that others' (e.g I value actual results at a higher competition level more than most) and the Twins have such a deep system, that some players who are listed in other lists and/or have been drafted in early rounds recently or have received large international signing bonuses will be conspicuously absent from this list. Trying to compile this list made me really appreciate the depth of the system this year. There are players who would have been on the top 20 list 3 and 4 years ago (a couple of names I can think of are Taylor Rogers, Luke Bard and JT Chargois) who did not crack my top 40 list. This is great news for the Twins. I am open to discussion about why and how, with the idea that it is just a point of view that is up to debate and not something that is either "right" or "wrong".
     
     
    Here is my twins 2014 off-season top 40 prospect list:
     
    1. Miguel Sano RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'3", 195 lbs.
    2. Byron Buxton, RH, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 189 lbs
    3. Alex Meyer, RH, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs.
    4. Eddie Rosario LH, 2B, DOB: 9/28/1991, 6'0", 170 lbs.
    5. Kohl Steward RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.
     
    6. Jorge Polanco, SH, SS/2B, DOB: 7/5/1993, 5'11", 165 lbs.
    7. Kennys Vargas SH, 1B, DOB: 8/1/1990, 6'5", 245 lbs
    8. Jose Berrios RHSP, DOB: 5/27/1994, 6'1", 185 lbs
    9. Trevor May RHSP, DOB: 9/23/1989, 6'5", 215 lbs
    10. Stephen Gonsalves LHSP, DOB: 7/8/1994, 6'5", 190 lbs
     
    11. Ryan Eades, RHSP, DOB: 12/15/1991, 6'2", 178 lbs
    12. Felix Jorge, RHSP, DOB: 1/2/1994, 6'2", 170 lbs.
    13. Travis Harrison, RH, 3B, DOB: 10/17/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs
    14. Amauris Minier, SH, SS/3B, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs
    15. DJ Baxendale RHSP, DOB: 12/8/1990, 6'2", 190 lbs
     
    16. Max Kepler LH, OF/1B, DOB: 2/10/1993, 6'4", 180 lbs
    17. Adam Walker, RH, OF, DOB: 10/18/1991, 6'5", 225 lbs
    18. Lewis Thorpe LHSP, DOB: 11/23/1995, 6'1", 160 lbs.
    19. Zach Jones, RHRP, DOB: 12/4/1990, 6'1", 185 lbs.
    20. Brian Gilbert, RHRP, DOB: 8/12/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs.
     
    21. Alexis Tapia RHSP, DOB: 8/10/1995, 6'2", 195 lbs
    22. Matthew Koch RH, C, DOB: 11/21/1988, 6'0", 219 lbs
    23. Jose Abreu RHSP, DOB: 6/13/1992, 5'11", 170 lbs.
    24. DJ Hicks, LH, 1B, DOB: 4/2/1990, 6'5", 228 lbs
    25. JD Williams, SH, OF, DOB: 11/20/1990, 5'11", 183 lbs
     
    26. Tyler Duffey RHSP, DOB: 12/27/1990, 6'3", 225 lbs.
    27. Niko Goodrum, SH, SS, DOB: 2/28/1992, 6'3", 170 lbs
    28. Stuart Turner, RH, C, DOB: 12/27/1991, 6'2", 220 lbs
    29. Josh Burris, RHSP, DOB: 11/28/1991, 5'10", 183 lbs.
    30. Danny Santana, SH, SS, DOB: 11/7/1990, 5'11", 160 lbs
     
    31. Mason Melotakis, LHSP, DOB: 6/28/1991. 6'2", 206 lbs
    32. Deibinson Romero, RH, 3B/1B, DOB: 9/24/1986. 6'1", 215 lbs
    33. Miguel Gonzalez, RHSP, DOB: 10/12/1994. 6'1", 180 lbs
    34. Fernando Romero, RHSP, DOB: 12/24/1994. 6'0", 215 lbs
    35. Adrian Salcedo, RHSP, DOB: 2/5/1991. 6'4", 175 lbs.
     
    36. Zach Larson RH, OF, DOB: 10/8/1993. 6'2", 185 lbs
    37. Logan Wade, SH, IF, DOB: 11/13/1991. 6'1", 190 lbs.
    38. Tyler Grimes, RH, C, DOB: 7/3/1990. 5'10", 187 lbs.
    39. Tyler Jones, RHRP, DOB: 9/5/1989. 6'4", 215 lbs.
    40. Alex Wimmers, RHSP, DOB: 11/1/1988. 6'2", 195 lbs.
     
    One interesting thing (at least to me) is that all but Meyer and May were either drafted or signed as amateur free agents by the Twins.
     
     
     


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  6. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    This is the fifth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, counting down prospects 31 to 35. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here and you can find all segments in reverse order here.
     
    The number 16 to 20 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are:
     
    20. Brian Gilbert, RHRP, DOB: 8/12/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs.
     
    The Twins selected Brian Gilbert in the 7th round of the 2013 draft from Seton Hall University. Gilbert was the closer at Seton Hall and continued his 2013 season in Elizabethton, where he pitched in just 5 games (6 IP) allowing a single hit before was promoted to Cedar Rapids. All in all he pitched in 18 games (23 Innings) in his pro career with a 0.78 ERA, 0.609 WHIP, walking just that one batter in E-town and striking out 14.
     
    Gilbert's weapons are a plus fastball that hits up to 96 mph, a plus slider that he commands very well and he throws at any count, and an "attack the hitter", 'bulldog' mentality. Gilbert will likely start the season as the Fort Myers closer. He has the stuff, approach and mentality to move fast in the organization, potentially reaching the majors in 2015. He will not start, but has MLB closer potential.
     
    19. Zach Jones, RHRP, DOB: 12/4/1990, 6'1", 185 lbs.
     
    Zach Jones was selected by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2012 draft from San Jose State University. Another hard throwing reliever to be selected in that draft, Jones will not be converted to a starter, unlike some of his draft mates. After he was drafted, Jones made 2 stops last summer, in Elizabethon for 6 games and at Beloit for 12. He finished the season with 20 IP in both levels, 2.25 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 34 Ks and 11 BBs. He spend the whole 2013 season as the primary closer at Fort Myers, pitching in 39 games (48.7 IP) to a 1.85 ERA (2.71 FIP) and 1.151 WHIP. He struck out 70 and walked 28. He was rewarded with an AFL representation where he had a very short but unremarkable performace this Fall (7G, 6IP, 9BB, 9K, 3HR, 18 ERA).
     
    A couple of fun, little known facts about Zach Jones: He did play as a DH for 3 years in San Jose State where he accumulated a .300/.378/.453 slash line with 2 HR in 136 ABs. Also, a certain statistics web site suggests that he played for the independent Nortwest League Yakima Bears as a Catcher during his college years. That was another Zach Jones
     
     
    His best tool is his fastball, which is the best in the organization according to BA and it is truly a plus plus pitch. It sits between 96-98 and touches triple digits. His delivery is very deceptive, but there is some effort to it. He complements his fastball with a curve that is above average. Control has been his biggest issue. If he simplifies his delivery, improves his control and develops a third pitch (change?) he is an All-star closer material. That is 3 ifs in a row, but his floor is higher than Jimmy Hoey. He will likely start 2014 as the New Britain closer with a fast track to Rochester and a potential September call up. Will not be surprised if he is invited to the big club's Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.
     
    18. Lewis Thorpe LHSP, DOB: 11/23/1995, 6'1", 160 lbs.
     
    Lewis Thorpe is the second youngest player in this top 40 list and just turned 18. He was signed on July of 2012 to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player , $500,000. He played his first professional season in the Gulf Coast League last summer, pitching 44 innings between 8 starts and 4 relief appearances. He had a 2.05 ERA (1.43 FIP) striking out 64 and walking just 6. His 38% K% and 10.7 K/BB are just phenomenal at any level, especially if you are 17 and still growing.
     
    He has 3 pitches and are all above average: A fastball that sits in the low 90s (that is up about 5 mph in a year), a curve and a changeup. Also has a very good feel for the game, an effortless delivery, and is still growing. He is one of the top leftie talents in the Twins' organization and will likely start 2014 in Elizabethton.
     
    17. Adam Walker, RH, OF, DOB: 10/18/1991, 6'5", 225 lbs
     
    Adam Walker by the Minnesota Twins in the 3rd round of the 2012 Draft from Jacksonville University. He started his pro career that season in Elizabethton, making a seamless transition to the wooden bat, hitting .250/.310/.496 with 14 HRs in 58 games. In the 2013 season he was promoted to Cedar Rapids where he stayed the whole season. In 129 games (553 PA) he hit .278/.319/.526 with 27 HR and 109 RBI.
     
    Power is Walker's most obvious tool (.246 and .248 IsoP in the last two seasons, age 20 and 21) and will likely increase. He played mostly first base in college and made the transition to full time OF (RF) in the pros. Walker is an adequate corner outfielder, even though his arm is weak, and has some speed. His contact and selectiveness tools need work; his K% drop from 30.2% in 2012 to 20.8 % is encouraging. If he improves his contact he can be an All-Star corner outfielder (likely left fielder) in the majors. Will likely start the 2014 (age 22) season in Fort Myers.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    16. Max Kepler LH, OF/1B, DOB: 2/10/1993, 6'4", 180 lbs
     
    Max Kepler was singed by the Twins as an amateur free agent from Germany in 2009. He received a $800,000 bonus, the highest ever for a European baseball player. Kepler is one of those prospects who is well known by people who follow the Twins, so I will not get into an in depth introduction, but I will talk move about his ranking here.
     
    A lot of people have Kepler as a top 10 prospect, based on pure potential, but this season he took a step back. He is still ranked as a top 20 prospect, which is a pretty big thing in this rich system. After 4 years as a pro, to be a top prospect you have to be close to reach this potential and Kepler other than his repeat season in Elizabethton in 2012 has not. An elbow injury held him back this season allowing him to play only 61 games with Cedar Rapids (the most in his 4 year pro career) and of those 24 at first base and 7 as a DH. He hit an anemic .237/.312/.424 with 9 HRs and 40 RBI with a 24/43 ration. He played at the Arizona Fall League as a first baseman where he was totally overmatched (.234/.306/.313). He was added to the 40 man roster this fall before the Rule 5 draft.
     
    His young age (20) and flashing of power (and he is still growing) is what kept him this high in the prospect list. Unless he comes out in Spring Training bashing, he will likely repeat the Midwest League with an early promotion to Fort Myers in 2014.
     
     
     


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    Next: 11-15
  7. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    This is the sixth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, counting down prospects 31 to 35. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here.
     
    The number 11 to 15 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are:
     
    15. DJ Baxendale RHSP, DOB: 12/8/1990, 6'2", 190 lbs
     
    DJ Baxendale was drafted in the 10th round of the 2012 draft by the Twins from University of Arkansas. He finished that season between Elizabethton and Beloit where he pitched 18.7 innings in the pen with a 0.96 ERA and 0.804 WHIP, walking 2 and striking out 31. If that does not spell "domination" I am not sure what it does maybe the fact that his ERA in six games in Elizabethton was 0 and he had a -0.58 FIP. Negative. His FIP increased to 0.75 in Beloit, eventually. Fast forward to next Spring (2013 Spring Training), Baxendale had the single most dominating pitching performance I have seen, and I have seen a lot, retiring all 9 batters he faced, striking out all but one, including Byron Buxton.
     
    This is what I wrote then, and pretty much fit his 2013 path to a tee:
     

    DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8. Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired on a 3-1 ground out. Not a small feat, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison. Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game). Two seam sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own. I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization. This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play. It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids. Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.)


     
    and my next sentence was:
    Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League.
     
    (they actually led the league in runs per game and had the best record in the FSL. Should had bought a lottery ticket that day...)
     
    Back to Baxendale: He followed that Spring domination with the Fort Myers Miracle, where he begun the 2013 season, starting 9 games (57.3 IP) compiling a record of 7-0 with an 1.10 ERA, 0.785 WHIP, striking out 48 and walking 11. He moved in New Britain where he returned to earth. He started 16 games (92.7 IP) 5-7 record, 5.63 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.42 WHIP (.317 BABIP), striking out 64 and walking 22. If not for his half season in New Britain, he would have been on the top 10 in this list. He jumped 4 levels of pro ball in two seasons and it is just his age 22 season. He has four pitches that he controls impeccably: low 90s fastball with good sink and movement, which is a plus pitch, and above average curve, slider and plus changeup. He has a good feel for the game and he can throw any pitch at any count for a strike. I believe that he will start 2014 in New Britain with a mid-season promotion to Rochester depending on performance. Definitely a pitcher who can make a fast jump in the organization.
     
    14. Amaurys Minier, SH, SS/3B, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs
     
    Minier signed with the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent ($1.4 million bonus) out of the Dominican Republic on July 2, 2012. Minier is still 17 years old (the youngest player in the list), skipped the DSL (he attended the Twins academy) and played his first professional season in the Gulf Coast League last summer. He played 31 games, mostly at 3B, with 119 plate appearances. He hit .214/.252/.455 with 6 HRs and 17 RBI, and a 6/29 K/BB ratio. He still is very raw but most of his peers are playing high school ball, while he has a .241 IsoP at the GCL. For comparison's sake, at the same age, Miguel Sano had a .175 IsoP at the GCL. And Minier is a switch hitter.
     
    Not that he is the same kind of prospect that Sano is, and the ranking reflects this. He needs to develop his contact and plate discipline, starting to hit off-speed and breaking balls, and needs to find a position because SS is out of the question and 3B is likely taken. But he is just seventeen. Maybe he will end up as a corner outfielder depending on how he grows and how he develops. Will likely spend 2014 in extended Spring Training and in Elizabethton.
     
     
    13. Travis Harrison, RH, 3B, DOB: 10/17/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs
     
    Harrison was a supplemental first round (50 overall) pick of the Twins in the 2011 draft out of Turstin (CA) High School. His first professional season was in Elizabethton in 2012, where he hit .301/.383/.461 with 5 HRs, 12 doubles, 4 triples, 24 BB and 51 K, as a 19 year old in 60 games. Last season in Cedar Rapids, his first full season, he hit .253/.366/.416 with 15 HRs, 28 doubles, 68 BB and 125 K in 129 games.
     
    Power has been touted as Harrison's best tool, and there have been flashes of it, and his IsoPs have been around .160, which is ok for a 20 year old in pro ball, but have to increase as he grows. Harrison has some trouble with breaking balls, especially of the in-the-dirt variety, and that is reflected by his consistent so far about a strikeout a game rate. He has to improve his pitch recognition and contact to go to the next level. Position-wise he has played almost exclusively at 3B (just a single game at LF finishing the game) but he will be squeezed from Sano ahead of him and potentially Minier behind him who are both better fielders. Moving across the diamond or at an OF might be an option, but he needs some reps at those spots soon, and first base might be spoken for for a while.
     
    12. Felix Jorge, RHSP, DOB: 1/2/1994, 6'2", 170 lbs.
     
    Oft confused with a former major league player or the Rangers farmhand with similar names, Felix De Jesus Jorge was signed by the Twins out of the Dominican in February of 2011 for $250,000. He started his pro career at the DSL where he pitched in 9 games (5 starts) for 27 innings, walking 9 and striking out 26 (2.67 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.037 WHIP). He move to the States and pitched 12 games (7 GS) in the GCL in 2012 with similar results (34.7 IP, 37 K, 12 BB, 2.34 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 1.212 WHIP, .303 BABIP) and moved up to Elizabethton as a 19 year old last season. He started 12 games (61 IP) striking out 72 and walking 18, with a 2.95 ERA, 2.25 FIP and 1.213 WHIP (.338 BABIP.)
     
    His high 20s K%, which improved every season and was up to 28.4% is very encouraging. Jorge is also one of those rare pitchers who had 3 above average pitches when he signed at 16 and he has been improving them. He has a low 90s fastball with decent movement, which will likely gain a few mph as he gets stronger. Above average slurvy curveball and change up. He commands all three pitches well, has good control and he mixes pitches well. For 2014, his age 21 season, he will likely be in the Cedar Rapids rotation.
     
    11. Ryan Eades, RHSP, DOB: 12/15/1991, 6'2", 178 lbs
     
    Eades was the Twins second round pick in the 2013 draft. After he signed he played 10 games in the Elizabethton pen pitching 15.7 innings striking out 13 and walking 12. He had a 4.60 ERA (4.22 FIP) and 1.596 WHIP. This is after pitching a career high 100 innings in college in 2013 and by no means can be used as an indication of his potential.
     
    Eades' potential is a mid to top of the rotation starter with four good pitches. He has a plus fastball that sits at 93-95 mph and peaks at 97-98, which he commands really well. He compliments it with three above average off-spead offerings: a high 80s slider, a high 70s curveball and a mid 80s changeup. He needs work with commanding his off-speed pitches but this will be a matter of maturity. Eades will likely start the 2014 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation, with the possibility of moving to Fort Myers mid-season.
     
     


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    Next: 6-10
  8. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    This is the eighth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, and we entered the top 10. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here.
     
    This is not the last post in these. For completeness sake, I will have a summary post with all 40 tomorrow.
     
     
     
    The number 1 to 5 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are:
     
    5. Kohl Stewart RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.
     
    Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School. Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP.
     
    Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well: A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s low 80s curveball and a plus low to mid 80s changeup, which is an impressive arsenal for an 18 year old. Stewart draws comparisons to another Houstonian hurler and the Twins would be ecstatic if he realizes half of that potential. He is still getting a feel on how to pitch, but this is expected for someone his age. Depending on how he shows in Spring Training, I will not be surprised if he starts 2014 at age 19 in Cedar Rapids' rotation.
     
    4. Eddie Rosario LH, 2B, DOB: 9/28/1991, 6'0", 170 lbs.
     
    Eddie Rosario was drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2010 draft from Rafael Lopez Landron (PR) High School as an OF. Rosario is one of those rare prospects who had success at every step of his pro career with his career slash line at .307/.358/.510 . His best season was his second pro, age 19 season, 2011 at Elizabethton, where he hit .337/.397/.670 with a career high 21 HRs in 67 games (298 PAs). He also swiped 17 bases that season. That was his last season as a full time center fielder before converted to a second baseman by the Twins due to their OF wealth.
     
    He played in Beloit in 2012, with his season cut short with a line drive on the face that broke his jaw bone. Despite that he finished the season with a .296/.345/.490 slash line. He moved up to Fort Myers in 2013 (age 21 season) where he hit .329/.377/.527 before moving to New Britain mid season. In New Britain he hit .284/.330/.412. In 2013 Rosario played in a career high 122 games with a career high 544 PAs. If that was not enough, he played at the AFL after this season and continued in the PWL the winter. Right before he started his appearance in the PWL he communicated to the press that he tested positive for prescription painkillers and was given a 50-day suspension, but at the time of this writing he has yet to be charged officially.
     
    Rosario has All-Star potential. A middle infielder with IsoP in the .200s before he hit drinking age, supplemented with good contact and decent plate discipline (he still needs some work on this tool) is rare. But the key word here is "infielder". Rosario is still mostly learning the position, but has shown a lot of promise and second base is probably the easiest position in the diamond defensively. For this, his impending suspension might be a blessing in disguise: He will give him some necessary rest after about 700 projected plate appearances this year and will give him a couple months in extended spring training to work on his fielding while serving his suspension. He will likely start 2014 in New Britain.
     
    3. Alex Meyer, RH, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs.
     
    Meyer was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB draft by the Washington Nationals out of the University of Kentucky and traded to the Twins last off-season (2012) for Denard Span. I am not really going to give detailed statistics for the top 3 Twins' prospects, just some information and justification for the rankings. I assume that everyone knows enough about them at this point.
     
    Meyer was ranked number 83 prospect in baseball by MLB.com before the 2012 season and number 59 from Baseball America and number 40 by MLB.com before last season. Believe it or not, Meyer is near to major league ready after just 2 professional seasons and at certain teams he would be in their 2014 MLB rotations. His repertoire includes 3 pitches: a plus plus fastball that averages 94-96 and hits 98-100, a plus to plus plus hard slider at high 80s with a sharp break and an average changeup, which right now is a complementary pitch. An likely comparable would be a right hand version of Randy Johnson, because their pitching styles and their offerings are so similar. Developing that changeup will make Meyer truly dominant. His ceiling is a top of the rotation perennial All Star starter. Likely will start 2014 (his age 24 season) in Rochester. He is not on the 40 man roster, but may still get a September call up depending on how the Twins and he is doing.
     
     
    2. Byron Buxton, RH, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 189 lbs
     
    Byron Buxton was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the first round (second overall) of the 2012 draft. He was rated number 10 prospect in Baseball by Baseball America and number 19 by MLB.com before the 2013 season. He likely is thought of as the top Twins' prospect by most people. Why he is not here? Because I think that Sano is a better player right now, because I saw him strike out in three straight change ups last spring training , because he had not a stellar performance in the AFL, and because at the same level (Fort Myers) at the same season, Miguel Sano (who is just 7 months older) was a better player. As a matter of fact, other than the Midwest League (and this could very well be Beloit vs Cedar Rapids,) Sano's production was better than Buxton's in the same stops. Another issue with Buxton's production was that his OPS dropped more than 100 points (from .990 to .887) from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers. And his BABIP in both stops was a ridiculous .402 and .404, which is about 100 points higher than the combined .303 among the 2 rookie stops the previous 2 seasons. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, just color me a tad worried here and not ready to jump in the top prospect in the system bandwagon, when Sano is still a prospect.
     
    On the other hand, Buxton is more of a complete player, having better defense and speed tools than Sano. He has been compared to Mike Trout, but his overall performance in the Midwest League in the first half of 2013 at the same age (19) was better than Trout's in the same league at the same age. What is Buxton's ceiling? Rickey Henderson with a stronger arm and fewer SB (just because they do not steal this much these days.) He could be a fixture at CF and an All-Star for many years. But he has to prove himself against AA pitching first and will likely get the chance starting his age 20 2014 season in New Britain. Twins' fans are wishing for a September call up to the majors, but I think 2015 is more realistic, unless he tears the Eastern League apart and the Twins are competing in September (and both would be great things.)
     
    1. Miguel Sano RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'3", 195 lbs.
     
    The Twins signed Miguel Sano as a free agent from the Dominican Republic on October of 2009 to a $3.15 million signing bonus. Before the 2010 season Sano was ranked as the 94th prospect in baseball by BA, before the 2011 season the 60th, before the 2012 season the 18th by BA and 23th by MLB.com and before last season the 9th by BA and 12th by MLB.com In the Byron Buxton entry, I talked about why I think that Sano is a better prospect, but I shouldn't have need to, if I just iterated what I wrote here last August, arguing that he should be the top prospect in baseball after this season, for a great reason.
     
    Miguel Sano is number one as far as I am concerned. And I am not going to compare him with Miguel Cabrera, like a lot of people do, because a. Miguel Cabrera is a disliked Tiger and b. I think that Sano will be better. So I will compare him to a beloved Twins' player: Harmon Killebrew. And those nit pickers who think that Sano's K% of around 25% on each of his age 17 to 20 seasons, need to go no further than realize that the Killer's K% in his age 19 to 22 seasons were 34.8%, 35.5%, 24.2%, and 36.4% respectively. There is further nit picking on Sano's defense. I am sure that many of nit pickers picked on his fellow third baseman's when he was coming up as a Senator, but he ended up alright by any measure. And next season will be Sano's age 21 season. He will like start 2014 in Rochester with a potential September callup depending on his and the Twins' performance. He is not on the 40-man roster, so a 2015 MLB appearance, like Buxton, is more likely.
     
    I was recently asked (after this was up) whether Sano's elbow issues might change my opinion on the rankings. The answer is categorically no, the same way that Buxton's shoulder issues do not change my opinion on him. If any of those injuries are catastrophic, it might be a different story. My original thoughts were that both Sano and Buxton will not be in the majors until at least 2015, so even that time table is not affected....
     


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    Next: Summary of all 1-40.
  9. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    This is the fourth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, counting down prospects 31 to 35. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here and you can find all segments in reverse order here.
     
    The number 21 to 25 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are:
     
    25. J.D. Williams, SH, OF, DOB: 11/20/1990, 5'11", 183 lbs
     
    J.D. (aka JaDamion) Williams was the Twins' 10th round pick of the 2010 draft from Brooks-DeBartolo Collegiate HS in Tampa, FL. He is the son of former major leaguer Reggie Williams . J.D. Williams was drafted as a middle infielder (he pitched as well in High School) but other than his first pro season in the GCL, he has been an outfield in the Twins' organization. Up to before this season, he was just another prospect moving from the GCL to the Appalachian League to the Midwest League annually with limited success, namely his promising 50 game season in Elizabethton in 2011 where he hit .324/.406/.465 swiping 10 bases in 15 tries. His full pro season in Beloit (2012, age 21) was a trial. He did not make much contract (.234/.311/.340) and his base-stealing (23/32 SB,) excellent range and defense were the only tools he flashed.
     
    2013 was the season the put Williams on the map as a prospect. Repeating the Midwest League, in Cedar Rapids this time, he hit .281/.391/.461 in 80 games. Compared to his 2012 in the same league, he improved his BB/K rate from 39/115 to 47/67, his IsoP from .106 to .180, while continuing swiping bases and playing excellent OF defense, mainly at LF due to teammates named Buxton and Walker. He was promoted to Fort Myers where he finished the season hitting .236/.333/.293 in 42 games, which was likely fatigue related, since the 122 games he played this season was the most of his pro career by 30 or so. Likely starts the season in Fort Myers and moves to New Britain. Has a potential for 20/20/20 season (2B/HR/BB). Because of the depth in the Twins' OF, could potentially return to second base.
     
    24. D.J. Hicks, LH, 1B, DOB: 4/2/1990, 6'5", 228 lbs
     
    D.J. (aka Dalton) Hicks was the Twins 17th round pick in the 2012 draft out of University of Central Florida. Hicks started his pro career last season in Elizabethton where he made a seamless transition to the wooden bat (.270/.382/.453, 4 HRs, 25 RBI, 19 BB, 37 K in 31 games (136 PAs). He started 2013 in Cedar Rapids where he hit .297/.355/.494 with 13 HR and 82 RBI in 89 games (400 PA) and finished in Fort Myers (42 games, .270/.364/.405, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 176 PA). He accumulated 110 RBI this season and this figure led the Twins' organization, ahead of Adam Walker (109) and Miguel Sano (103.)
     
    This might sound like a blasphemy, but at similar points in their professional career (albeit Hicks at older age) Hicks as a player is similar to a young Justin Morneau. In addition to the physical similarities and defensive challenges at this point, Hicks' age 23 season split between the Midwest and Florida State League resulted in a combined .289/.358/.468, 17 HR, 110 RBI production, while Morneau's age 20 season (2001) split between those leagues, with 10 addition games in the Eastern League, resulted in a combined .314/.389/.497, 16 HR, 97 RBI production. Morneau is clearly the better player here but Hicks is in the area code... His power tool is his best. He has already shown signs of improved pitch recognition and with improvement of fielding and contact, he can be a major league first baseman. One little known fact about D.J Hicks: In addition to playing first base, Hicks was a pitcher in College, pitching a total of 66 innings in 3 seasons awfully.
     
    Hicks will likely start 2014 at Fort Myers, if Kennys Vargas mans first base in New Britain. If Kennys Vargas starts at Rochester, Hicks will likely start in New Britain. Potentially they can both spit 1B/DH duties at New Britain.
     
    23. Jose Abreu RHSP, DOB: 6/13/1992, 5'11", 170 lbs.
     
    Jose Alexi Abreu (not to be confused with the Cuban First Baseman) Signed by the Minnesota Twins as a non-drafted free agent on Sept. 2, 2010 out of the Dominican Republic. After 2 seasons in the DSL, he made the transition to the GCL last summer where he served as the main closer of the team pitching 28 innings in 18 games striking out 30 and walking 5 for an 1.61 ERA and 0.821 WHIP.
     
    He has a nice fastball with a lot of movement and a small statute and reminds some of another diminutive Dominican in pitching style, especially attacking hitters. He does have a decent curveball that has fooled the GCL hitters, but it needs improvement, as does his change up. Will likely start the season as a swing man in Elizabethton.
     
     
    22. Matthew Koch RH, C, DOB: 11/21/1988, 6'0", 219 lbs
     
    Matthew Koch was the Twins' 12th round pick of the 2011 draft out of Loyola Marymount University. He finished that summer in Elizabethton (12 games, 51 PA, .273/.333/.545, 2 HR, 9 RBI) moved up to Beloit in 2012 and Fort Myers in 2013. He had solid and nearly identical seasons as a catcher in both A and high A (.253/.349/.421, 8 HR, 23 2B, 39 RBI in 89 games Beloit in 2012) and (.278/.346/.401, 7 HR, 20 2B, 40 RBI in 98 games in Fort Myers in 2013. Likely, he will put a similar line next season in New Britain. This season he improved on the BB/K ratio from 35/106 in 2012 to 35/75 in 2013, which is always nice to see in a developing prospect.
     
    He calls a good game behind the plate and is a sure handed, if not flashy catcher. He threw out 30% of the would be base stealers. As indicated, he would likely start the 2014 season in New Britain. His could be a solid backup catcher in the majors, with the potential of a solid starter depending on his development.
     
    21. Alexis Tapia RHSP, DOB: 8/10/1995, 6'2", 195 lbs
     
    Alexis Tapia was signed by the Minnesota Twins from Venezuela on Sept of 2012 and 2013 was his first professional season. He spent last season (his age 17 season) in the DSL where he playing in 11 games (7 as a starter) pitching 42.3 innings, striking out 31 and walking 5. His ERA was 2.13 and his WHIP a miniscule 0.874.
     
    The 3 things that you hear about Tapia are: that he is "projectable", with a growing 6'2" frame, that he has a "good feel for the game", and that he is "throwing strikes". Beyond those cliches, he is working with 3 pitches (fastball, curve, change) which, other than his fastball that approaches plus, are still works in progress, but he is 17. Depending on how his English is, he will likely move to the Gulf Coast League in 2014.
     


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    Next: 16-20
  10. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    I have not attempted a full detailed one of those, but I think that with the Twins getting better this off-season and the possibility of trades of prospects for established players being a true possibility, I thought that it might be a good idea. There are a lot of prospect lists out there and they are all slightly different because different people value different qualities in a player, but they all serve a great singular purpose: to get to know the minor league players in an organization who otherwise would just be names in old draft boards and rarely seen box scores.
     
    My list will be long, forty names long and I will be presenting profiles of the players in fives pretty much every work day starting this week. I will be done in time for the Rule 5 draft on December 12th. I also do include recent international players who have not made the trip to the United States, so there will be a few new names there.
     
    You can see all the segments, in reverse chronological order here.
     
    There are the number 36 to 40 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects:
     
    40. Alex Wimmers, RHSP, DOB: 11/1/1988. 6'2", 195 lbs.
     
    Wimmers was the Twins' first round pick (21st overall) in the 2010 draft out of Ohio State University. He missed all but 5 innings in 2012 and 15 rehab innings in the Gulf Coast League in 2013, due to elbow issues and Tommy John surgery. Additionally, he had further surgery to decompress the nerve in the same elbow this off-season. There are a lot of expectations for a first round pick, but Wimmers has effectively not pitched (other than 4.3 innings in 2012) above the high A Florida State League, where he amassed a 4-3 record, with a 3.20 ERA (4.20 FIP), 1.08 WHIP (.211 BABIP), 9.9 K/9 and 2.3 K/BB in 56.3 innings spread along 2 seasons.
     
    His stuff before his elbow troubles was a plus two seamer with excellent movement in the low 90s, complemented by a plus changeup and an plus plus breaking ball, which he needs to command better. I watched Wimmers during the 2012 Spring Training before his injury and you can read the report here .
     
    Wimmers is a big enigma in the organization that left him unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. 2014, his age 25 season will be a make or break season for him. Depending on the elbow, he will start either at extended Spring Training or at New Britain with a potential call up to Rochester later in the season depending on health and performance.
     
    39. Tyler Jones, RHRP, DOB: 9/5/1989. 6'4", 215 lbs.
     
    Tyler is the older of the two Jones' (the other one is Zach) at Fort Myers the second half of the 2013 season. He was drafted by the Twins at the 11th round of the 2011 draft out of Louisiana State University. In 2011 and 2012 he was primarily a starter at Elizabethton and at Beloit, with mixed results (5-5, 4.67 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.442 WHIP, .357 BABIP. 10.6 K/9, 26.6 K% and 2.91 K/BB in 86.7 Midwest League innings.) This season the Twins transitioned him to the pen, where his high strikeout rate as a starter really increased to a strikeout machine level.
     
    At high A Fort Myers, this season he struck out 33.3% of the batters he faced, while at Cedar Rapids, where he started the season, he strick out 29.9%. His FIP was 1.27 and 2.21 at A+ and A levels, respectively. When a third of the batters you face strike out, you have a serious advantage as a pitcher and belong in a top prospect list. Unlike his namesake who has an impressive fastball, Tyler Jones fastball sits in the low 90s and touches 95, but has a tremendous movement and he complements it well with above average changeup and slider. Command of his fastball had been an issue, but he seems to have improved last season.
     
    He will likely start 2014 at Fort Myers (maybe taking over the closer duties) and end the season in New Britain. Will be interesting to see how his stuff looks against tougher competition next season and if the strikeout rate holds up at AA. I expect him to be a big mover in this list next year this time.
     
    38. Tyler Grimes, RH, C, DOB: 7/3/1990. 5'10", 187 lbs.
     
    Tyler Grimes was drafted by the Minnesota Twins at the 5th round of the 2011 draft from Wichita State University as a Shortstop. At 5'10 and 187 lbs (in actuality closer to 200), he does not have the optimal body for a shortstop and it showed at his limited range and error-proneness on the field. Last off-season the Twins transitioned him into a Catcher role. He did also spend some time at second base (13 games) and at shortstop (1 game) but middle infield is not in his future.
     
    Grimes played all of his pro seasons in the Midwest League (Beloit and Cedar Rapids) so far and he has shown a steady improvement the last season on the plate, hitting .256/.377/.382 with 6 HRs and a 45/87 BB/K ratio in 356 plate appearances. He is still learning how to call a game, but his strong SS arm translated into C where he threw out 44% of the would be base stealers.
     
    Grimes would likely spend (his age 23) 2014 season in Fort Myers.
     
    37. Logan Wade, SH, IF, DOB: 11/13/1991. 6'1", 190 lbs.
     
    Logan Wade was an international (Brisbane, Australia) signee of the Twins in the Spring of 2012 and he reminds me of a fellow Australian with the Twins, Luke Hughes. He started his professional career as a middle infielder with the Gulf Coast League Twins in 2012 where he hit .234/.301/.371 in 138 PAs as a 20 year old. This season he played in Elizabethton where he hit .303/.333/.455 in 106 PAs. His power (IsoP) for a young middle infielder (.137 in 2012 and .152 in 2013) are very impressive and his hit tool improved last season.
     
    His pitch recognition needs work (5/33 BB/K in 2013) but he potentially has future as a utility player or better, especially if he can keep the power numbers at higher levels and improves his pitch recognition and glove. His glove plays better at 2B than SS, but he has played both corner infield positions and LF. He will likely spend the 2014 season at Cedar Rapids.
     
    36. Zach Larson RH, OF, DOB: 10/8/1993. 6'2", 185 lbs
     
    Zach was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 20th round of the 2012 draft out of Lakewood Ranch High School in Bradenton FL. He played only in 15 GCL games in 2012 and his transition to the wooden bat was unremarkable (.250/.318/.325) However, 2013 was a great season for him. He started the season repeating the Gulf Coast League where he hit .317/.382/.467 in 137 plate appearances and moved up to Elizabethton without slowing down (.301/.407/.438 in 86 PA)
     
    He can play all 3 OF positions and he played exclusively at CF in high school, but his arm plays better at LF. He does make good contact, has gap power, is pretty selective (19/39 BB/K last season,) and his 19 year old frame will fill. Has decent range and speed as well, even though the last has not translated much into stolen bases. Depending on his Spring Training, he will likely start 2014 in Cedar Rapids.
     
    Next: 31-35
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8521/8607105322_69cb607a83_o.jpg

  11. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    I think that it is fair to say that Brian Dozier's 2013 season (especially his power numbers) was not expected by many based on his fairly disappointing 2012 rookie season and his fairly flat minor league career. But was there anything is his path through the minors that could have acted as a leading indicator potentially predicting his 2013 breakout season?
     




    After he was drafted in the 8th round of the 2009 draft Dozier moved in a pretty typical path through the Twins organization for a 22 year old: Rookie leagues in 2009, split between A and high A in 2010 and split between high A and double AA, in his age 24 season. That was the season when Dozier finally got it all together. Here is a graph of his OPS and ISO throughout his career
     
    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7298/11016136206_480115753b_o.jpg
     
     
     
     
    His age 24 season shows a noticeable increase in his OPS and, especially, his ISO that doubled from previous marks and was approaching the .200s . His power (but not his OPS - which means that he still potentially has ways to go in the major league level) was very similar to that exhibited in his age 26 MLB season (2013).
     
    Also to be noted that Dozier, after his 2011 season, continued the success in the AFL: .296/.358/.454 (.821 OPS, .158 ISO). He did have a setback in 2012, but that whole Twins' season was a setback.
     
    Let's superimpose the above chart with a chart that shows the OPS and ISO numbers per season of another Twins' player and align them for age:
     


    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7358/11016251843_6ecb81ef87_o.jpg

     
     
     
     
     
     
    As you can see, this player has started his professional career earlier that Dozier did and had similar moderate success. However, like Dozier, in his age 24 season (at AAA instead of Dozier's A/A+) had a major breakthrough with increases in OPS and ISO to close to all-star levels. Actually at the same age, at a higher level of competition, his OPS and power numbers were better than Dozier's, which makes me believe that he will potentially have a season similar to Dozier's 2013 next season. The player?
     
    Eduardo Escobar
     
    Also of note is that Escobar (like Dozier in 2011) is continuing his breakthough 2013 season in the Venezuela Winter League: .302/.348/.519 (.867 OPS, .217 ISO) at the time this was written
     
    How about fielding which was another strong suit of Brian Dozier's ?
     
    Here are the MLB career numbers for Dozier:
     
    .992 FP% 2B (1255 Inn), .964 FP% SS (732 Inn),
    UZR/150: -0.7 2B, -5.0 SS,
    RZR .832 2B (MLB best 2013: .842), .796 SS (MLB Best 2013: .876; Florimon .838)
     
    and Escobar:




     
    1.000 FP% 2B (149.7 Inn), .951 FP% 3B (287.7 Inn), .959 FP% SS (281.2 Inn)
    UZR/150: -6.0 2B, -16.2 3B, 5.1 SS.
    RZR: .813 2B (MLB best 2013: .842), .641 3B, .814 SS (MLB Best 2013: .876; Florimon .838)
     
    Both Dozier and Escobar do not make many errors. UZR/150 does not like Dozier and Escobar in 2B and 3B, but likes Escobar at SS. Revized Zone Rating has Dozier near the MLB top at second base abd Escobar above average at both 2B and SS (but not that great at 3B). Noted that Escobar's defense at SS is close to Florimon's as far as UZR/150 and RZR are concerned, but he is making fewer errors than Florimon.
     
    Could Escobar be the Twins' SS of the near future and Escobar & Dozier the Twins double play combination for a while? Time will tell, but if Dozier's very similar career is an indicator, it looks like a very true possibility, starting with the 2014 season.
     
     
     
    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3696/11017192645_3f60120173_z.jpg
  12. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    Twins' beat reporter Mike Berardino broke the news late Tuesday night that the Minnesota Twins were looking closely (but not yet negotiating) at the possibility of signing Bronson Arroyo, the 37 year old free agent pitcher lately of the Cincinnati Reds.
     
    The thought that immediately came to my mind was that the last thing the Twins need is another (and older version of) Kevin Correia, given my premise that the Twins need 3 starting pitchers better than Correia to compete. Arroyo's durability (pitched at least 199 innings every season after 2004, without ever visiting the Disabled List) and mentoring skills have been exalted, but he is thirty seven years old, with a 87 mph fastball and his numbers look so much like Kevin Correia's. How much? I went to look and confirm.
     
    Here are Kevin Correia's and Bronson Arroyo's career numbers in several categories, from traditional like ERA to "advanced" like SIERA, FIP and xFIP:
     
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3694/10840083145_beb4a18519_o.jpg

     
    Looking at the first five columns, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and K/9, it is immediately noticeable that one could not have picked any more similar pitchers. Also interesting is the fact that both their ERA are so close to their FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Other measurements not listed here, but are extremely alike are: career HR/FB (identical at 10.9), K% (15.3 for Arroyo and 15 for Correia), tERA (4.81 for Correia and 4.84 for Arroyo) and Hits per 9 IP (1.07 for Correia and 1.02 for Arroyo).
     
    Alas. The data seem to indicate that my gut feeling was correct. They are the same pitcher. But with one (pretty large) difference in a single measurement: Their PE (pitching effectiveness) and xPE cannot be more different. You can read about PE and xPE (and why I like them as simple predictive measurements) starting here and following the relative links for more detail and how those measurements were developed. The difference (mainly walk rate differential-driven, which also reflects the changes in their WHIPs, since the hit rates are similar.) indicates that Arroyo is a much better pitcher and (unlike Correia whose numbers fall in the number 5 starter range with a PE of 7.92 and an xPE of 8.12) has been a solid number 3 type starter with a PE of 14.03 and an xPE of 13.60. But these are career numbers. How about his age 36, 2013 season? His PE of 17.52 and xPE of 16.13 in 2013 were even better than his total career numbers.
     
    A couple of additional things that have to be mentioned:
     
    a. Arroyo threw more than 100 pitches in 172 of his 385 games (44.7%) and 120 in 13 (3.4%). These numbers for other starting pitchers drafted when Arroyo did (1995): Ryan Dempster 52.9% and 7.5%, Jarrod Washburn 57.7% and 3.9%, Matt Morris 48.6% and 4%, Roy Halladay 57.9% and 4.8% and Russ Ortiz 53.8% and 12.8%. So if you are a pitch count believer, his arm has been abused less than his peers, which might indicate that there might be something in his 37 year old arm.
     
    b. Arroyo is a different type of a pitcher. Here is an excellent writeup on Arroyo's stuff from yesterday by ESPN 1500's Twins' reporter Brandon Warne and here is a fangraphs interview where Arroyo describes his pitching style. A lot of very interesting things in that piece about his approach of the game, but his admission that hard throwing pitchers have an easier time dealing with batters is golden, because I have heard the argument (which I oppose dearly) that increased velocity does not make someone a better pitcher. Hearing it from an actual MLB veteran pitcher, is refreshing. Arroyo also admits that he sees himself pitching up to 3 more years.
     
    So, suddenly and after a bit of research, I feel a bit better about this. My gut reaction was wrong: Arroyo is better than Correia and is expected to be better than Correia in the near future. So he can be one of the 3 pitchers better than Correia the Twins need. If the Twins get Arroyo they need 2 more pitchers better than him, hopefully top of the rotation types. On the other hand, he is thirty seven and I just hope that the elderly Floridian with the funky leg kick, who once was traded for Willy Mo Pena (by Twins' special assistant to the GM Wayne Krivsky nevertheless), remains healthy.
     


    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Bronson_Arroyo_2011.jpg/360px-Bronson_Arroyo_2011.jpg

  13. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    A week ago, I looked at the available starting pitchers who are free agents and I distilled the long list to three names who the Twins should target this off-season. The premise is that other than Alex Meyer and maybe Kyle Gibson, the Twins do not have any "sure bets" for the top of their rotation for next season and the near future that will coincide with the coming of age of uber prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. So, in order to compete in 2014 and not to waste that future, the Twins need three starting pitchers better than Kevin Correia and Kyle Gibson (today) who will hold the 2 last spots in the Twins' rotation for 2014. These pitchers should be young enough to be around at least for 3 years, maybe longer. The two other criteria I used to trim the free agent list, in addition to age (31 next season or younger) were characteristics sorely missed by the Twins' rotations since Johan Santana's and Fransisco Liriano's departure and injury and eventual departure: Hard throwing (FB 92 mph or better) and striking people out (K/9 8 or better.) I also excluded pitchers in rehab or mostly in the minors or in foreign leagues in 2013. From the list of 54 free agent pitchers, ended up with an "A" list of five names who meet the criteria and a "B" list of four names who meet some of the criteria.
     
    However it is unlikely that the Twins will get 3 free agent pitchers and there is a good opportunity to acquire a pitcher who would had been in the A list (and fairly on the top of the list), were he a free agent. There have been thoughts ranging from rumors to dreams about the Twins trading with the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello (who potentially is available, and is young enough, but his fastball is too slow and does not strike enough people out to even make the "B" list) or with the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey (who has enough characteristics to make the "A" list, but likely will cost someone like Alex Meyer to acquire, which defeats the purpose) or even with the Tampa Bay Rays for David Price (who would like will cost the farm, and a bit more.)
     
    Who is the mystery pitcher and what would it take for the Twins to acquire him?
     
    The Twins need to start thinking about selling high (without destroying the team) and buying low. Unfortunately this front office has not been utilizing the practice well recently, from the Willingham non-trade after a career season, to the clearance sale of Frasisco Liriano (who was an ace for the Pirates last season) to the giving up of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and Jim Thome (whom the Philies eventually "flipped" to the Orioles for 2 C prospects.)
     
    The proposed trade is Brian Dozier, Casey Fien and Darin Mastroianni to the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija.
     
    Why would the Twins want this trade?
     
    Samardzija is 29 years old, listed at 6'5" and 225 lbs, is arbitration eligible and under team control for the next 2 years (estimated 2014 award and affordable $5 million), has top of the rotation stuff (94 mph FB average and K/9 around or higher than 9 the past 3 seasons; as far as our criteria go) is durable (175 and 214 IP the last 2 seasons) and (the buy low part) has a negative W-L ratio and ERA in the 4s, which is not top of the rotation results. Given that his xFIP is about a full point lower than his ERA, his SIERA is 3.60 and his xPE (19.8) in the number 2 starter range, his actual results are lower than his potential and were likely influenced by the Cubs' bad defense and their horrible for pitchers ballpark.
     
    Twenty eight year old Brian Dozier is coming from a career season that has cemented him in the minds of many as the Twins' second baseman of the future who should make the Twins move 22 year old Eddie Rosario back to the outfield, but it is unlikely sustainable, thus the sell high. Dozier's season with the bat, even though it seems Ruthian among the Twins' hitters, was a league average .726 OPS, resulting from a .244/.312/.414 slash line, that propelled his OPS to average because of SLG%. His SLG% was influence by a ridiculous HR/FB rate that is not sustainable. Drop is SLG% a conservative 30 points and a .244/.312/.384 (with a .696 OPS) does not look quite Ruthian. Prime candidate for regression. Sell high. Twenty five year old Eduardo Escobar, who quietly had a stellar 2013 AAA campaign and is repeating it in the Venezuela Winter League, can be an immediate replacement with potential shift to short stop when Eddio Rozario is deemed ready (as soon as September of 2014).
     
    Thirty year old Casey Fien who in the mind of some is a prime candidate for the right hand set up man (and Gardenhire used him in that role partially last season), is the poster boy for selling high; his peak was before the All-Star break (and the Twins lost the opportunity to trade him at the deadline before he regressed) but still has some sell high potential. I have explained the reasons to sell high on Fien here then, and they stand, albeit the attractiveness slightly reduced. The Twins have plenty of pitchers including Michael Tonkin who will replace Fien with potentially better results.
     
    Why Mastroianni? Because the 28 year old's future with the Twins as a defensive replacement/pinch runner/fourth outfielder was nulled when the Twins acquired 25 year old Ryan Pressly and might be the sweetener for the deal for the Cubs.
     
    Why would the Cubs want the trade?
     
    Samardzija has shown flashed of brilliance but has not really translated the potential and expectations into actual wins. There is pressure to win in Chicago and the clock is winding down for the new Front Office leadership to produce a winner in a division where the Reds, the Cardinals and now the Pirates provide tremendous competition. Thus the Cubs might soon be in "win-now" mode and spending some real money in free agency. Second base was a black hole in production last season. Dozier who will likely sustain his high HR/FB rates in Wrigley will help close that and continue with his stellar defense. The pen was a mess and Casey Fien, with a little bit of continuation of his luck will help them fix. Their outfield, especially centerfield was very inconsistent. Mastroianni can hold down centerfield in late innings for them. Also, last but not least, all 3 players are under club control for 5 years and would cost only about league minimum the first 2, helping the Cubs focus that money towards the acquisition of costly free agents
     
    Is it a fair trade?
     
    On first look, 5 years (2 at minimum wage) of each of Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Casey Fien for the last 2 arbitration years of Jeff Samardzija seem like a slam dunk for the Cubs. However, the Twins are buying low and selling high, making this a fair trade for both teams
     
    Just in case this happens, for the Twins' fans: The D, Z and I in Samardzija's name (whose nickname is "Shark) are silent, and pronounced Sah-MAR-jah
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3730/10837295476_e3e274820d_z.jpg

  14. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    It is not a secret, that the biggest problem the Minnesota Twins had in the past few woeful season, as far as players are concerned, is the lack of a reliable rotation. While a lot of fans are looking at 2015 or 2016 as the potential contenting point for the Twins, when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton "come to age", the dirty secret is that there are not (other than Alex Meyer and potentially Kyle Gibson above A level) any sure bets for top of the rotation pitchers in the system, which, almost certainly would guarantee mediocrity at best for the middle of this decade.
     
    This off-season the Twins have an opportunity to remediate this via free agency and, in addition to 2015 and beyond, be competitive in 2014. In order to do so, the Twins would need to sign at least 3 pitchers better than Kevin Correia who can be a place holder for Alex Meyer, in his last contract year and with Kyle Gibson would be the 2 remaining parts of the Twins' rotation in 2014. Who should those three new pitchers be? What would it take to sign them? Remember, we are not looking only for 2014, but we are looking beyond. And we are looking for numbers one, two and three in the Twins' rotation, allowing Gibson to be number four and Correia number five, which would result in a competitive rotation. Potentially one of these positions could come internally: Alex Meyer might be one out of Spring Training; I have not given up on Vance Worley because of an awful injury, out-of-shapeness and bad luck (BABIP) induced, age 25 season; and nobody knows whether Samuel Deduno might take the next step.
     
    What characteristics those free agents should have?
     
    If you look at the measurable characteristics the top pitchers have, two jump out right away, and these 2 happen to be the exact ones the Twins' rotation has been lacking:
     
    a. Hard throwing. Average Fastball velocity in MLB is 92 mph, including relievers
    b. Missing bats. Average K/9 is around 7 in the majors, so we are looking for top of the rotation players with K/9 above 8.
     
    Only 3 Minnesota Twins starting pitchers, both left-handed, since PitchF/X was introduced allowing the measurement of pitch velocities, satisfied that criteria: Johan Santana (2004, 2005, 2006) and Fransisco Liriano (2005, 2006, 2010).
     
     
    And because of the long-term vision (we are looking for players who can get 3+1 or 4+1 contacts and would be with the team for the biggest part of the decade when Sano and Buxton come to age) the Twins need to look at pitchers who would at mostly be 31 years old in 2014, so they do not pay for a pitcher's declining seasons. One can argue that an older pitcher can be signed in an one or two year contract as a place holder for someone like Kohl Steward, which is a valid argument, but at this point it does not guarantee competitiveness, since Kohl Steward is not a sure bet now.
     
    Here are the 3 criteria (all measurable) the Twins should look for in a free agent:
     
    a. Average FB velocity >= 92 mph
    b. K/9 >= 8
    c. Age in 2014 season =< 31
     
    Here is a list of all 2014 free agent starting pitchers, from MLB trade rumors, alphabetically and with 2014 season ages in parenthesis:
     
    Alfredo Aceves (31)
    Bronson Arroyo (37)
    Scott Baker (32)
    Erik Bedard (35)
    Travis Blackley (31)
    A.J. Burnett (37)
    Chris Capuano (35)
    Chris Carpenter (39)
    Bruce Chen (37)
    Bartolo Colon (41)
    Scott Feldman (30)
    Gavin Floyd (31)
    Jeff Francis (33)
    Freddy Garcia (37)
    Jon Garland (34)
    Matt Garza (30)
    Chad Gaudin (31)
    Roy Halladay (37)
    Jason Hammel (31)
    Aaron Harang (36)
    Dan Haren (33)
    Roberto Hernandez (33)
    Tim Hudson (38)
    Phil Hughes (28)
    Ubaldo Jimenez (30)
    Josh Johnson (30)
    Jair Jurrjens (28)
    Jeff Karstens (31)
    Scott Kazmir (30)
    Hiroki Kuroda (39)
    John Lannan (29)
    Wade LeBlanc (29)
    Jon Lester (30)
    Colby Lewis (34)
    Ted Lilly (38)
    Paul Maholm (32)
    Shaun Marcum (32)
    Jason Marquis (35)
    Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
    James McDonald (29)
    Randy Messenger (32)
    Ricky Nolasco (31)
    Sean O'Sullivan (26)
    Roy Oswalt (35)
    Mike Pelfrey (30)
    Greg Reynolds (28)
    Clayton Richard (30)
    Ervin Santana (31)
    Johan Santana (34)
    Joe Saunders (33)
    Kevin Slowey (30)
    Masahiro Tanaka (25)
    Jason Vargas (31)
    Ryan Vogelsong (36)
     
    Trimming the list by age, and listing K/9 and average FB velocity for both 2012 and 2013, disqualifying pitchers who (because we are looking mostly for "sure bets". Reclamation projects and bargains could fit for one of these positions, but are out of scope for this exercise.) :
     
    a. pitched less than 50 innings due to injury in 2013
    b. pitched mostly in the pen in 2013
    c. pitched mostly in minor or foreign leagues in 2013
     
    we have this list (with K/9 and FB velocity fitting the criteria indicated in green, if fit complete or in yellow if fit when rounded up to no decimals) :
     


    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5542/10710062884_1fb93bcac8_o.jpg

     
     
    The "A" list (at least two pitchers should be from this list) :
     
    Matt Garza, RHP, 30. Difficult to see a Garza reunion with Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson still on the Twins' staff. Documented personality conflicts when with the Twins
     
    Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 30. Received a qualifying offer, which means the Twins will have to surrender their second round pick to sign him. Price will be high because of monster second half.
     
    Josh Johnson, RHP, 30. No qualifying offers. Health and performance consideration (if one looks at W-L and ERA; but solid xFIP and peripherals) will drop the price
     
    Scott Kazmir, LHP, 30. The only lefty in the list. No qualifying offer. Great year suggests that recovered from injury nicely
     
    Edinson Volquez, RHP, 30 . No qualifying offer. Very quietly made it to the list. A sleeper, potentially low cost signing
     
     
    The "B" list (potentially one pitcher should be from this list, but there are questions) :
     
    Phil Hughes (28) He is intriguing; close with the K/9. Still in early prime. Can be the one from this group to target
     
    Jon Lester (30) Will likely stay with the Red Sox. Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not.
     
    Mike Pelfrey (30) Interesting to see him in the list, but his K/9 is not in the ball park. Can he get his K/9 up? Great fit in the Twins' club house. Should the Twins take another flier with Pelfrey another year away from TJ surgery?
     
    Ervin Santana (31) Expensive. Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not. Received a qualifying offer. Stay away for the money. More expensive that all the pitchers in the A list, other than Jimenez.
     
     
    The rest:
     
    Gaudin was a reliever in 2012 when he met the criteria. Nolasco and Vargas are thought to belong in the "A list" potentially. They do not.
     
    Who are the three starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins should sign in 2013, in order to be competitive in 2014 and beyond? They are:
     
    Josh Johnson
    Scott Kazmir
    Edinson Volquez
     
    Can they sign all three? The short answer is "yes", but I will examine the Twins' budget in another post...
  15. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    The art of evaluating performance inside a baseball diamond has undoubtedly changed the last few years with the infusion of science (math & statistic notations.) In the "good old days" if someone "hit 300", with more than 30 home runs and either more than 100 runs scored or 100 "ribies", he had a great season. That was the measuring stick that separated great from very good. And it still does, mainly on the mainstream press, game broadcasts and talk radio. The expressions "he hits two seventy five" and "he cannot hit his weight" will be there as performance measures, albeit as crude as an Amish scooter is for propelling devise when compared to a Tesla . Still, even that is light years ahead than the Fred Flintstone mobile of a hitter's performance evaluation, the "eyeballing" method, which introduces measures such as "the special sound a ball makes when leaves the bat" or "the quickness of someone's wrists" or the way "someone is flying on the bases" or
    . 
    There has been evolution. OPS as a concept was introduced in 1984, and then was refined to OPS+ or adjusted OPS, that normalizes for park and league effects, plus adds an easy to compare baseline of 100 that is the league average that season, for an easy reference. So an OPS+ higher than 100 is better than average and less than 100 worse. Much improved from "ribies" and other cumulative stats, but still one dimensional Gremlin-like. What OPS lacks, is that it disregards the ability of someone to sacrifice runs, steal bases, score runs, avoid hitting into double plays, and all the other goodies that are happening in real life baseball with the bat or at the bases.
     
    A year after OPS was created, in 1985, Bill James introduced a measure for offensive performance he called Runs Created . This concept has been improved (see previous reference) constantly to account for things like stolen bases and sacrifices. Tom Tango, eventually improved the concept or Runs Created and morphed it into weighted Runs Created or wRC. wRC is a good way of looking at someones performance, but (like RC) it is cumulative; think Runs, HRs and RBIs. This is fine for evaluating a season (like who had the best season in an MVP type of consideration) or whether someone's career is HOF worthy (both cummulative questions; for the record I do prefer WAR over wRC to answer those, since it includes fielding, among other reasons); however it does not answer the question of who performed the best for the time he was on the field (and maybe play him more, or call him "up", if necessary.)
     
    So we moved from a Gremin to a 'cuda (Yes, I like 'cudas too, especially the Hemi version, but they are not without faults) Enter wRC+ to the equation. wRC+ is a lot like OPS+. It is based on wRC (runs created with the bat and on the bases, independent of league and park,) but it normalized to 100 (denoting league average, like OPS+,) and furthermore it is a rate metric (think UZR/120 vs UZR) so you can look at chunks of performance, moving plate appearance variations (sample size) aside. A good writeup in basic terms about wRC+ is found here: This interesting article from Denver Post (an enlightened mainstream newspaper), uses wRC+ to argue the greatness of Carlos Gonzalez.
     
    Here is a real life field test of the effectiveness of cumulative measures like wRC (and WAR) compared to rate stats, like wRC+. Work with me: Let's rewind to the Twins' last good season (2010) and ask the question: who was the best Twins' player on the field (for the time he played, assuming that it was significant; I like the 200 PA mark as a cut-off point) and try to find an objective quantitative measure to support your argument. "Ribies" and ball sounds and the like are not allowed.
     
    Here are the top 6 in wRC, a cumulative measure, with Plate Appearances (and OPS for reference) in parenthesis, in descending order.
     
    Joe Mauer 93 (584, .871)
    Delmon Young 87 (613, .826)
    Michael Cuddyer 82 (675, .753)
    Justin Morneau 75 (348, 1.055)
    Denard Span 73 (705, .679)
    Jim Thome 71 (340, 1.039)
     
    So basically, the cummulative stat, because of the disparity of sample size favors an average player (Cuddyer) and a below average player (Span) because they had twice as many PAs as Morneau and Thome; the "longevity" effect in HOF discussions.
     
    Let's look at the best wRC+ with a 200 PA minimum (to filter players like Luke Hughes and Carl Pavano who make the list but had less than 10 PAs) :
     
    Justin Morneau 184
    Jim Thome 178
    Joe Mauer 136
    Delmon Young 120
    (Danny Valencia 118)
    Michael Cuddyer 104
    .
    .
    .
    (4 players)
    Denard Span 88
     
    This is what wRC+ does. And this was the season that every single Twins' fan was saying what that season would have been, "if" Morneau did not hit his head. I hope this little example illustrates the value of wRC+ vs things like wRC and WAR.
     
    After the long but necessary introduction, back to the original subject, Miquel Sano. If trying to find objective measures that evaluate performance on the field is difficult, finding objective quantitative measures that can estimate future performance, used to discuss who is the best prospect or to create prospect "lists" is borderline impossible (like trying to create a vehicle that is using air for fuel and emits water for exhaust.) But we can dream and play. Earlier this year, during the off-season, I looked at potential future performance of the starting pitchers in the Twins' organization using objective quantitative measures. I will repeat the exercise this coming off-season looking at the position players and the whole slew of pitchers and not only starters. I will be using wRC+ as the basis of that endeavor, based on the discussion above. In addition, age and level of play will also be major factors. But for this piece here, before it turns into War and Peace, let's focus on Miguel Sano's performance this season in a quantitative way and putting it in perspective:
     
    Miguel Sano in 243 PAs in A+ (average league age for hitters is 23) at age 20 had a 201 wRC+. In 190 PAs in AA(average league age for hitters is 24.5) at age 20 he is having a 158 wRC+. His AA numbers are in flex and we can discuss more after the season is over, but his A+ number are final. To put that 201 wRC+ in perspective:
     
    - It is the highest in the minors this season (second highest is Chris Colabello with 197 in Rochester, who is well in his prime and older than the average AAA player)
    - It has been achieved by only 5 major leaguers in the past 30 years (mininum 200 PAs): Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas; and Cabrera's is this season, so it is not final.
     
    For the fun of it, and the perspective of Sano's dominance, here is a list of all the MLB leaders in wRC+ (and some close to the leaders) with career highs indicated for the last 30 seasons:
     
     
    2013: Miguel Cabrera, 210, in progress
    2012: Mike Trout & Miguel Cabrera tied, 166
    2011: Jose Bautista, 180 (career high)
    2010: Josh Hamilton, 175 (career high)
    2009: Albert Pujols, 180 ; Joe Mauer, 170 (career high)
    2008: Albert Pujols, 184 (career high)
    2007: David Ortiz & Alex Rodriguez tied, 175 (career high for both)
    2006: Travis Hafner, 176 (career high)
    2005: Alex Rodriguez, 174
    2004: Barry Bonds, 233 (Todd Helton, 166, career high)
    2003: Barry Bonds, 212 (Albert Pujols, 184)
    2002: Barry Bonds, 244 (Jim Thome 189, Manny Ramirez 185); all three career high
    2001: Barry Bonds, 235 (Jason Giambi 193, Sammy Sosa 186; career high for both);
    2000: Manny Ramirez, 181
    1999: Manny Ramirez, 172 (Mark McGwire, 168)
    1998: Mark McGwire, 205 (career high)
    1997: Mike Piazza, 183, career high (Frank Thomas, 179, Larry Walker 177, career high)
    1996: Mark McGwire, 190 (Garry Sheffield 185, career high)
    1995: Edgar Martinez, 182 (career high)
    1994: Frank Thomas & Jeff Bagwell, 205 (Albert Belle 186); all three career high
    1993: Barry Bonds, 193
    1992: Barry Bonds, 198
    1991: Frank Thomas, 179 (Chili Davis, 139)
    1990: Rickey Henderson, 190 (career high)
    1989: Kevin Mitchell, 184 (career high)
    1988: Jose Canseco, 169 (career high)
    1987: Jack Clark 176, Wade Boggs 171; both career high (Kent Hrbek, 134)
    1986: Don Mattingly 160 (career high)
    1985: Pedro Guerrero 181 (George Brett 168); both career high
    1984: Mike Schmidt 154 (career high)
    1983: Wade Boggs 155
     
    And here are the wRC+ career highs and career averages for selected Twins' hitters
     
    Harmon Killebrew, high: 176, 1967; career average: 142
    Tony Oliva, high: 154, 1971; career average: 129
    Rod Carew, high: 175, 1977; career average: 132
    Kent Hrbek: high: 146, 1988 career average: 126
    Kirby Puckett: high: 150, 1988 career average: 122
    Dave Winfield: high: 161, 1975; career average: 128
    Paul Molitor: high: 145 1991; career average: 122
    Joe Mauer: high: 170, 2009; career average: 133
    Justin Morneau: high: 184, 2010; career average: 118
     
    Sano's career worst wRC+ is 146 last season in Beloit. As you can see, his wRC+ numbers this season, in combination with his age, his level of play and the average age in that level, are totally out of the stratosphere.
     
    How about Byron Buxton? Buxton is only 7 months younger than Sano, and has been playing at a full level below Sano. So the age/level combination is very similar (but still on Sano's favor).
     
    Here are Buxton numbers: in 321 PAs in A (average league age for hitters is 21.5) at age 19 had a 173 wRC+. In 174 PAs in A+ at age 19 (average league age for hitters is 23) he is having a 129 wRC+. For comparison's sake, the Angels' Mike Trout, at the same age (19), at the same league (Midwest), at the same team (Cedar Rapids) had an identical 173 wRC+. Objectively, Byron Buxton, looks like he is the prospect Mike Trout was and had a great season in Cedar Rapids (and this is great news for the Twins), but Sano had a monumental season in Fort Meyers. Better than Morneau's 2010 with the Twins. I just cannot see how objectively anyone can justify ranking Buxton higher than Sano, or not rank Sano as the number one prospect in baseball this season; unless it is the sound the ball makes when it meets his bat (or something)
     
    Sano is poised to be a centerpiece in the majors for years to come. Fans will enjoy seeing his #PowerBananas for a long while. I just hope that they are all with him in a Twins' uniform...
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8257/8607105428_fcbd66e42a_z.jpg

  16. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    Despite the current drama within the Twins' organization with their future star third baseman, which is getting to be about as bad as that of the Yankees with their former star third baseman, and unsure whether the unanimous number three prospect in baseball will play, I made the forty five minute trip to Reading (think of "ready" when pronouncing it, not "righting" and "rithmetic") to watch the Rock Cats face the Phillies' AA team, the Reading Fighting Phils. The major attraction in my book was DJ Baxendale starting (whom I last watched live in Spring Training making the unanimous number one prospect in baseball look like a fool, striking out in three pitches.)
     
    Baxendale was different tonight. Not sure whether it had to do with his recent three week stint in the disabled list, but his fastball was down a couple notches to 88-90 mph and he had a hard time command it, the way he did in the spring. This game was almost rained out, but when he pitched the weather was not a factor. His curveball in low 70s was his best pitch and he showed great command throwing for strikes and intentionally throwing it at the dirt. Low 80s change up did have movement, but for some reason he was not throwing much of it. I did not see any sliders. His main arsenal was the curve today and he threw it a lot. So he did not have his best stuff out there, but he looked very poised pitching despite that. I checked him on the centerfield camera a couple times and the way he pitches reminds me of Brad Radke, but substitute curve for change up. Very similar fluid mechanics with good follow through and easy motion. In addition to not being 100% he was unlucky: Nate Hanson let a couple of catchable balls go through at third (one for a double) and Jordan Paraz let a catchable ball fly over his head in short center. These were good for 3 runs. Add a Reading batter who got "hit" on the toe, but did not try to get out of the way and a two run error on Dan Rohlfing and you get the rest of the picture.
     
    Eddie Rosario was impressive. He might be the second player who will make it in the bigs from this bunch. Excellent speed and very good feet and even cutting motion at second. He is owning the position. Add a batting average around .320 (he was batting third) and he might be on his way soon. I have seen him hit and I know that he can hit, but color me very impressed with his glove at second. For sure he will rise on the lists as soon as the national writers see him play. He changed his number from 2 to 13. This was what he was wearing today. Rumors that he did it in support of Jerry White, are unsubstantiated.
     
    Josmil Pinto likely will be the first guy up from this squad, maybe as soon as September, or earlier, trading deadline deals willing. Since last Spring, he gained a good 20 pounds of solid muscle and looks pretty dominant out there. He was the DH tonight.
     
    I did not have much change to see Danny Santana and Danny Ortiz play live, but they are both solid with the bat. Santana is very fast as well and he flashes a nice glove at short. Definitely a possibility at short with the big club.
     
    Evan Bigley seems to slowly get back from his injury, which is a shame because he was close to becoming a mainstay in Rochester in a season that the big club is very thin in outfielders. Journeymen Reynaldo Rodriguez and Jordan Paraz, neither of who have any future with the Twins were at first (Kennys Vargas anyone?) and center. Nate Hanson was plainly disappointing with the glove today and he is 26. I think that this might be the end of the road for him. Dan Rohlfing has had a puzzling season. After a great Spring, he has a very miserable summer both at the plate and on the field. Blake Martin was better than I remember, with a fastball in the 90s and a variety of off-speed stuff. Might have some future as a "crafty lefty", but he is 27 and the organization is full of these type of pitchers.
     
    AJ Pettersen did not play. So did Angel Morales and Miguel Sano. I am not going to get into the Sano drama in this piece. Morales and Sano shared first base coach duty.
     
    I took a whole bunch of pictures, but will put them up later, because it is getting late here on the east coast. But I am leaving you with the following parting shot:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3811/9382321846_18764053ef_c.jpg

     
     
    The skies opened at the top of the seventh inning with thunder while the score was 2-8. I did not stay any longer.
  17. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -------
     
    It is a weekend series with the Yankees away from the All Star break, and it is obvious that the 2013 version of the Minnesota Twins is not much better than the 2012, so understandable, they should be "sellers" in the fast approaching trading deadline. Several names of players, like Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, even Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins have been mentioned as potential "trade bait". I strongly believe that non-contending teams with plenty of faults should rebuild by trading players at the last year of their contracts and trade veterans or players in their late 20s at their peak of their value ("selling high".)
     
    From the aforementioned only Justin Morneau (last contract season) and Glen Perkins (value peak, plus friendly contract) fit the bill. I would like to examine whether there other potential players who the Twins should think about trading based on peak of their value. I have to mention that the Twins have been extremely bad about trading players at the peak of their value, and instead they sell low or give away. For every Bobby Kielty, AJ Pierzynski and Denard Span (3 examples of players sold high,) there is an army of Delmon Young, Fransisco Liriano, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey, Alex Burnett, Joe Nathan, Nick Blackburn, Mike Cuddyer, Carl Pavano etc who just rode into the sunset. Selling high and selling impeding free agents before the hit the market is how good teams, like the Tampa Bay Rays, keep themselves competitive year after year.
     
    So the Twins should trade Justin Morneau and Glen Perkins (but not give them away.) Anyone else who according to this formula should be a candidate?
     
    Enter Casey Fien.
     
     
    Casey Fien will turn 30 this October and arguably he is on the peak value for his career. He has pitched in 42 games (36.2 innings), struck out 40 and walked 7 (2 intentionally), has a 3.19 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 5.7 K/BB and a miniscule 0.791 WHIP. And last season, he became a fixture in the Twins' pen in the second half appearing in 35 games (36.2 innings), struck out 32 and walked 9 (4 intentionally), with a tiny 2.06 ERA, and a 0.971 WHIP.
     
    Why trade him? At first glance he appears as a pitcher who can be Glen Perkins' replacement as a closer potentially. Why not go that route? Here are the reasons:
     
     

    He has been pitching over his head. This season his BABIP is .207; last season it was .229. This is not sustainable and expect a Diamond-like regression once balls start to go through.
    His numbers are better than his stuff. He is mainly a fastball and cutter/slider pitcher with an occasional slurve he uses as a change of pace. His fastball is in the low nineties and the cutter in the high eighties. This season he lost 2-3 mph of velocity in all of his offerings. I do not want to speculate the reason.
    RH middle relievers are the easiest players to replace. The Twins have a plethora of 6th starter/AAAA starters. It is very possible that conversion to the pen will have a Glen Perkins' like effect for them.

    So I would add another name for the Twins to shop, that of (the mighty) Casey Fien.
     
    Next: a few more players the Twins should consider trading
  18. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
    It is really wonderful to see professional baseball players to be good corporate citizens and invest in their communities, appreciating what they did for them in their earlier steps on the way to becoming stars.
     
    From the Twins' world, local Minnesotans, Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins have donated a lot of their money and time to several local causes. But they never had a team named after them. A third Twins' lefty just did.
     
    LHP Brian Duensing, a graduate of Millard South at Omaha, Nebraska (the place where he met his wife as well), has donated a large sum of money to his local High School Legion team to be used for uniforms and baseball-related expenses. In return, the team will be named the 52s (his uniform number) in his honor.
     
    Always good to see the players of your favorite team do the right thing. Congratulations to Brian Duensing!
     


    http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2011/02/24/bFlRh7Za.jpg

  19. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    The lore of baseball has it that the jumps from single A to high A and from high A to AA are the hardest jumps in a pro player's minor league career. In actuality, there is another jump that is much harder and only about one in five players make it: The jump from the Dominican Summer League to the Gulf Coast League. The players who make this jump are what an organization thinks is the cream of the crop of the next generation of their Latin American prospects who have been having their first taste of pro ball in the DSL.
     
    Here are the names of the players who made the jump from the DSL to the GCL for the Minnesota Twins (with one exception) this season:
     
    Jose Alexi Abreu, 20, (RHP) 5'11", 170
    Birthday: 07/13/1992, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2010.
    Not to be confused with the Cuban Jose Abreu or this former Twins' RHP.
    (The article linked is a 1981 Sports illustrated article that is a must read for a historic perspective of Latin American Free Agent signings before the big bonus era.)
     
    Damiam (Damian) Ismael Campusano Defrank, 18, (RHP), 6'3", 200
    Birthday: 02/01/1995, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2012
     
    Miguel Antonio Gonzalez, 18 (RHP), 6'1", 180
    Birthday: 10/12/1994, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2011 for $650K.
     
    Jonatan Hinojosa (Ynojosa) 20, (SS), 5'11", 150, SH
    Birthday: 10/23/1992, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2009
     
    German Amaurys Minier, 17 (SS/3B) 6'2", 190, SH
    Birthday: 01/30/1996, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2012 for $1.4M
    He did not play in the DSL last season but played in the Academy (the one exception here)
     
    Adonis Alexander Beltran Pacheco, 21, (OF), 5'11", 175, LH
    Birthday: 7/14/1991, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2009
     
    Joel Bienvenido Polanco 20, ©, 5'11", 175, RH
    Birthday: 08/15/1992, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2010
    Not to be confused with Twins SS Jorge Polanco (now in Cedar Rapids) who also was signed in 2010 for $750K bonus
     
    Fernando Ernesto Romero, 18, (RHP), 6'0", 215
    Birthday: 12/24/1994, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2011
     
    Engelb Vielma 19, (SS), 5'11", 155, SH
    Birthday: 06/22/1994 , Venezuela
    Signe in 2011
     
    Reyson Andres Zoquiel, 19, (LHP), 5'11", 175
    Birthday: 11/05/1993, Dominican Republic
    Signed in 2010
     
    In addition to the above players, Leonel Zazueta, and 18 year old RHP from Mexico with a very live mid 90s fastball, who signed last year with a large bonus, and like Minier is starting his pro career in the US, is on the GCL roster, skipping the DSL.
     
     


    http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/14/55/32/3331724/3/628x471.jpg

  20. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
    For a large fraction of the Minnesota Twins fans, the Yankees clearly represent three things: a franchise that has a bottomless pit for a budget and can buy players and championships, a team that after the wild card was established the Twins have to face in every post-season, and the team that the Twins (the good Twins' teams) lost to in every post-season. So the Yankees have been the proverbial thorn on the Twins' side or a major pain on their back side. For most fans, this relationship of the Twins-Yankees franchises is a recent one and it became apparent as the Twins got better this Millennium, since the Yankees were always in the other division. But this cannot be further than the truth. The two franchises have a long intertwining history that goes all the way back to the dark ages (of baseball.)
     
    Both the Twins and Yankees franchises were founding members of the American League in 1901. The Yankees started their American League life as the Baltimore Orioles and the Twins as the new franchise in Washington that moved from Kansas City (the Blues,) which took the name of the NL team that was there and dissolved in 1899, the Senators. The KC Blues were part of the old Western League the predecessor of the American League. I am digressing here, but it is important for Twins' fans. The league was founded in 1893 and was comprised by mainly Midwestern teams. One of the founding teams of the Western League was the Sioux City Corn Huskers. In 1894 Charles Comiskey bought the Sioux City club and transferred to St. Paul, MN and called them the St. Paul Saints. The Saints moved to Chicago (the time the Blues moved to Washington DC to become the Senators) and became the White Stockings aka the White Sox. So think about that the next time the Twins decide to wear Saints' uniforms. But I am digressing. Back to the Twins and the Yankees...
     
    The Yankees did not last much in Baltimore. Just a couple years before they moved to the Bronx and became the Highlanders with pretty much a brand new squad. The first ever game of the Highlanders, fate has it, was against the Twins nee Senators in Washington. Promptly the Senators won 3-1:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3728/9069839623_cd920d5511_o.jpg






    Both teams were wallowing in mediocrity in the aughts and the teens (and the Highlanders changed their name to the Yankees in 1913 to no avail). But in the roaring twenties, the Yankees and the Senators were the 2 teams that dominated the AL. The Yankees of Babe Ruth, Wait Hoyt and Lou Gehrig went to the World Series from '21-'23 and from '26-'28 (won in '23, '27 and '28) and the Senators of Walter Johnson, Goose Goslin and Sam Rice went in '24 and '25 and won their first trip.









    http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7402/9069839791_45c99d151c_o.jpg












    With the interruption of a World Series trip by the Senators in 1933, the two franchises went in opposite ways from then on, with the Yankees (well) being the Yankees and the Senators (well) being the Senators. Twins' fans might dislike the Yankees right now, but the two teams have had pretty good relationships at least in their front offices since day one and a lot of cross-polination.







    In addition to Billy Martin who managed both the Twins and the Yankees, the following two Hall of Fame managers managed in both franchises: Clark Griffith (1903-1908 Highlanders and 1912-1920 Senators; Bucky Harris (1924-1928, 1935-1942, 1950-1954 Senators and 1947-1938 Yankees.) Harris won World Series with both teams (1924 and 1947, which were in his first year with each team). Griffith and Martin, in addition to managing MLB teams in the Twins and Yankees franchises, they also played for both teams.







    Speaking about playing for both teams, there are not 2 other teams in major league baseball that have more players playing for both than the Twins and the Yankees. The proximity and the train between New York and Washington DC helped in the early ages before the airplanes (and there were a lot of players who were going up and down the east coast try to make a living before the '40s,) but the exchanges have continued up to now. The following 175 players (including many All Stars and four Hall of Famers) played for both the Yankees' and the Twins' franchises (and a lot of these players got traded between the 2 franchises; look for players who played for both in the same season or in consecutive seasons) :







    Spencer Adams (Senators 1925, Yankees 1926),
    Bernie Allen (Twins 1962-66, Yankees 1972-73),
    John Anderson (Senators 1905-07, Highlanders 1904-05),
    Pete Appleton (Senators 1936-39, 1945, Yankees 1933),
    Luis Ayala (Twins 2009, Yankees 2011),
    Willie Banks (Twins 1991-93, Yankees 1997-98),
    Walter Beall (Senators 1929, Yankees 1924-27),
    Lou Berberet (Senators 1956-58, Yankees 1954-55),
    Garland Braxton (Senators 1927-30, Yankees 1925-26),
    Tommy Byrne (Senators 1953, Yankees 1943, 1946-51, 1954-57),
    Bullet Joe Bush (Senators 1926, Yankees 1922-24),
    Archie Campbell (Senators 1929, Yankees 1928),
    John Candelaria (Twins 1990, Yankees 1988-89),
    Roy Carlyle (Senators 1925, Yankees 1926),
    Ben Chapman (Senators 1936-37, 1941, Yankees 1930-36),
    Mike Chartak (Senators 1942, Yankees 1940, 1942),
    Al Cicotte (Senators 1958, Yankees 1957),
    Tex Clevenger (Senators 1956-60, Yankees 1961-62),
    Orth Collins (Senators 1909, Highlanders 1904),
    Wid Conroy (Senators 1909-11, Highlanders 1903-08),
    Ron Coomer (Twins 1995-2000, Yankees 2002),
    Don Cooper (Twins 1981-82, Yankees 1985),
    Clint Courtney (Senators 1955-59, Yankees 1951),
    Stan Coveleski, HOF (Senators 1925-27, Yankees 1928),
    Herb Crompton (Senators 1937, Yankees 1945),
    Roy Cullenbine (Senators 1942, Yankees 1942),
    Nick Cullop (Senators 1927, Yankees 1926),
    Jim Deshaies (Twins 1993-94, Yankees 1984),
    Chili Davis (Twins 1991-92, Yankees 1998-1999),
    Ron Davis (Twins 1982-86, Yankees 1978-81),
    Rick Dempsey (Twins 1969-72, Yankees 1973-76),
    Jimmie DeShong (Senators 1936-39, Yankees 1934-35),
    Sonny Dixon (Senators 1953-54, Yankees 1956),
    Jack Doyle (Senators 1902, Highlanders 1905),
    Lew Drill (Senators 1902-04, Orioles 1902),
    Kid Elberfeld (Senators 1910-11, Highlanders 1903-09),
    Roger Erickson (Twins 1978-81, Yankees 1982-83),
    Scott Erickson (Twins 1990-95, Yankees 2006),
    Alvaro Espinoza (Twins 1984-86, Yankees 1988-91),
    Alex Ferguson (Senators 1925-26, Yankees 1918, 1921, 1925),
    Wes Ferrell (Senators 1937-38, Yankees 1938-39),
    Tom Ferrick (Senators 1947-48 and 1951-52, Yankees 1950-51),
    Pete Filson (Twins 1982-86, Yankees 1987),
    Ray Fontenot (Twins 1986, Yankees 1983),
    Eddie Foster (Senators 1912-19, Highlanders 1910),
    Ray Francis (Senators 1922, Yankees 1925),
    George Frazier (Twins 1986-87, Yankees 1981-83),
    Billy Gardner (Senators/Twins 1960-61, Yankees 1961-62),
    Milt Gaston (Senators 1928, Yankees 1924),
    Joe Gedeon (Senators 1913-14, Yankees 1916-17),
    Al Gettel (Senators 1949, Yankees 1945-46),
    Lefty Gomez, HOF (Senators 1943, Yankees 1930-42),
    Wayne Granger (Twins 1972, Yankees 1973),
    Clark Griffith, HOF (Senators 1912-14, Highlanders 1903-07),
    Randy Gumpert (Senators 1952, Yankees 1946-48),
    Bump Hadley (Senators 1926-31, 1935, Yankees 1936-1940),
    Jimmie Hall (Twins 1963-66, Yankees 1969),
    Joe Harris (Senators 1925-26, Yankees 1914),
    Harry Harper (Senators 1913-19, Yankees 1921),
    LaTroy Hawkins (Twins 1995-2003, Yankees 2008),
    Neal Heaton (Twins 1986, Yankees 1993),
    Sean Henn (Twins 2009, Yankees 2005-07),
    Steve Howe (Twins 1985, Yankees 1991-96),
    Tom Hughes (Senators 1904-09, 1911-13, Orioles/Highlanders 1902, 1904),
    Jackie Jensen (Senators 1952-53, Yankees 1950-52),
    Don Johnson (Senators 1951-52, Yankees 1947, 1950),
    Sad Sam Jones (Senators 1928-31, Yankees 1922-26),
    Tim Jordan (Senators 1901, Highlanders 1903),
    Jim Kaat (Senators/Twins 1959-1973, Yankees 1979-80),
    Bill Keister (Senators 1902, Orioles 1901),
    Roberto Kelly (Twins 1996-97, Yankees 1987-92),
    Frank Kitson (Senators 1906-07, Highlanders 1907),
    John Knight (Senators 1912, Highlanders/Yankees 1909-11, 1913),
    Andy Kosco (Twins 1965-67, Yankees 1966),
    Chuck Knoblauch (Twins 1991-97, Yankees 1998-01),
    Bob Kuzava (Senators 1950-51, Yankees 1951-54),
    Frank LaPorte (Senators 1912-13, Highlanders 1905-10),
    Dave LaRoche (Twins 1972, Yankees 1981-83),
    Lyn Lary (Senators 1935, Yankees 1929-34),
    Chris Latham (Twins 1997-99, Yankees 2003),
    Jack Lelivelt (Senators 1909-11, Highlanders/Yankees 1912-13),
    Duffy Lewis (Senators 1921, Yankees 1919-20),
    Jim Lewis (Twins 1983, Yankees 1982),
    Slim Love (Senators 1913, Yankees 1916-18),
    Kevin Maas (Twins 1995, Yankees 1990-93),
    Danny MacFayden (Senators 1941, Yankees 1932-34),
    Billy Martin (Twins 1961, Yankees 1950-57),
    Tippy Martinez (Twins 1988, Yankees 1974-76),
    Mickey McDermott (Senators 1954-55, Yankees 1956),
    Danny McDevitt (Twins 1961, Yankees 1961),
    Darnell McDonald (Twins 2007, Yankees 2012),
    Mike McNally (Senators 1925, Yankees 1921-24)
    Doug Mientkiewicz (Twins 1998-04, Yankees 2007),
    Larry Milbourne (Twins 1982, Yankees 1981-82, 1983),
    Willy Miranda (Senators 1951, Yankees 1953-54),
    Chad Moeller (Twins 2000, Yankees 2010),
    George Mogridge (Senators 1921-25, Yankees 1915-20),
    Mike Morgan (Twins 1998, Yankees 1982),
    Tom Morgan (Senators 1960, Yankees 1951-52; 1954-56),
    George Murray (Senators 1926-27, Yankees 1922)
    Dan Naulty (Twins 1996-98, Yankees 1999),
    Denny Neagle (Twins 1991, Yankees 2000),
    Graig Nettles (Twins 1967-69, Yankees 1973-83),
    Bobo Newsom (Senators 1935-37, 1943, 1946-67, 1952, Yankees 1947)
    Joe Niekro (Twins 1987-88, Yankees 1895-87),
    Irv Noren (Senators 1950-52, Yankees 1952-56),
    Jesse Orosco (Twins 2003, Yankees 2003),
    Al Orth (Senators 1902-04, Highlanders 1904-09),
    Champ Osteen (Senators 1903, Highlanders 1904),
    John Pacella (Twins 1982, Yankees 1982),
    Carl Pavano (Twins 2009-12, Yankees 2005-08),
    Roger Peckinpaugh (Senators 1922-26, Yankees 1913-21),
    Eddie Phillips (Senators 1934, Yankees 1932),
    Sidney Ponson (Twins 2007, Yankees 2006, 2008),
    Bob Porterfield (Senators 1951-55, Yankees 1948-51),
    Jake Powell (Senators 1930-36, 1943-45, Yankees 1936-40),
    Jerry Priddy (Senators 1943, 1946-47, Yankees 1941-42),
    Pedro Ramos (Senators/Twins 1955-61, Yankees 1964-66),
    Shane Rawley (Twins 1989, Yankees 1982-84),
    Jeff Reardon (Twins 1987-89, Yankees 1994),
    Harry Rice (Senators 1931, Yankees 1930),
    Roxey Roach (Senators 1912, Highlanders 1910-11),
    Eddie Robinson (Senators 1949-50, Yankees 1954-56),
    Kenny Rogers (Twins 2003, Yankees 1996-97),
    Jim Roland (Twins 1962-64, 1966-68, Yankees 1972),
    Braggo Roth (Senators 1920, Yankees 1921),
    Muddy Ruel (Senators 1923-30, Yankees 1917-20),
    Dutch Ruether (Senators 1925-26, Yankees 1926-27)
    Allen Russell (Senators 1923-25, Yankees 1915-19),
    Mark Salas (Twins 1985-87, Yankees 1987),
    Fred Sanford (Senators 1951, Yankees 1949-51),
    Ray Scarborough (Senators 1942-43, 1946-50, Yankees 1952-53)
    Germany Schaefer (Senators 1909-14, Yankees 1916),
    Art Schult (Senators 1957, Yankees 1953),
    Johnny Schmitz (Senators 1953-55, Yankees 1952-53),
    Everett Scott (Senators 1925, Yankees 1922-25),
    Kip Selbach (Senators 1903-04, Orioles 1902),
    Hank Severeid (Senators 1925-26, Yankees 1926),
    Howie Shanks (Senators 1912-22, Yankees 1925),
    Spec Shea (Senators 1952-55, Yankees 1947-49, 1951),
    Ruben Sierra (Twins 2006, Yankees 1995-96, 2003-05),
    Roy Smalley (Twins 1976-82, 1985-87, Yankees 1982-84),
    Elmer Smith (Senators 1916-1917, Yankees 1922-23),
    Gabby Street (Senators 1908-11, Highlanders 1912),
    Eric Soderholm (Twins 1971-75, Yankees 1980),
    Jake Stahl (Senators 1904-06, Highlanders 1908),
    Dick Starr (Senators 1951, Yankees 1947-48),
    Bud Stewart (Senators 1948-50, Yankees 1948),
    Steve Sundra (Senators 1941-42, Yankees 1936-40),
    Jesse Tannehill (Senators 1908-09, Highlanders 1903),
    Dick Tettelbach (Senators 1956-57, Yankees 1955),
    Bob Tewksbury (Twins 1997-98, Yankees 1986-87),
    Myles Thomas (Senators 1929-30, Yankees 1926-29),
    Jack Thoney (Senators 1904, Orioles/Highlanders 1902, 1904),
    Luis Tiant (Twins 1970, Yankees 1979-80)
    Cesar Tovar (Twins 1965-72, Yankees 1976),
    Bob Unglaub (Senators 1908-10, Highlanders 1903),
    Elmer Valo (Senators 1960/Twins 1961, Yankees 1960),
    Hippo Vaughn (Senators 1912, Highlanders 1908-12),
    Bobby Veach (Senators 1925, Yankees 1925),
    Jake Wade (Senators 1946, Yankees 1946),
    Danny Walton (Twins 1973, 1975, Yankees 1971),
    Gary Ward (Twins 1979-83, Yankees 1987-89),
    Jim Weaver (Senators 1928, Yankees 1931),
    Rondell White (Twins 2006-07, Yankees 2002),
    Bob Wiesler (Senators 1956-58, Yankees 1951, 1954-55),
    Stan Williams (Twins 1970-71, Yankees 1963-64),
    Archie Wilson (Senators 1952, Yankees 1951-52),
    Dave Winfield, HOF (Twins 1993-94, Yankees 1981-90),
    Barney Wolfe (Senators 1904-06, Highlanders 1903-04),
    Harry Wolverton (Senators 1902, Highlanders 1912),
    Dick Woodson (Twins 1969-70 & 1972-74, Yankees 1974),
    Butch Wynegar (Twins 1976-82, Yankees 1982-86),
    Tom Zachary (Senators 1919-25, 1927-28, Yankees 1928-29),
    Bill Zuber (Senators 1941-42, Yankees 1943-46).








    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5505/9072066282_0579fa9611_o.jpg










    And thus the story goes...







    If you are interested, you can find more Twins history posts
    here.

  21. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    I started the Twins mock 2013 draft a week ago, suggesting that they should select Sean Manaea with their first round and fourth overall pick. A couple days ago I presented the second to fifth round picks for the Twins in this mock draft, and now I am concluding with picks from the 6th to the 12 round.
     
     
    As I indicated in the first pick presentation, like every single other mock drafts out there, unless someone can see all the draft boards from all teams, this is a purely recreational endeavor.
     
    A reminder of the picks so far:
     
    Round 1 (4 overall) Sean Menaea LHP, Indiana State
    Round 2, (43 overall): Hunter Dozier, SS, Stephen F. Austin State
    Round 3, (78 overall) Andrew Knapp, C, Cal
    Round 4 (110 overall) Edwin Diaz, SS, Ladislau Martinez Otero HS, Puerto Rico
    Round 5 (140 overall) DJ Snelten, LHP, Minnesota
     
     
    And the new picks:
     
    Round 6 (170 overall) Mike Wagner, RHP, San Diego
     
    Starter turned closer turned starter again. Plus plus fastball (peaking at high 90s) and average slider; could be a starter if he develops a third offering and improves his slider, otherwise a solid back of the pen guy.
     
    Here is a 10 minute scouting video:
     
    (EDIT: for some reason I cannot include videos here, please go to the original post if you would like to see the video)
     












     


























    http://media.utsandiego.com/img/photos/2012/05/13/UTI1645565_r620x349.JPG

     
    Round 7 (200 overall) Xavier Fernandez, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
     
    Strong righty out of Puerto Rico. 6' 210 lbs and growing. Good hand eye coordination, projected to hit with power. Natural in the Catcher position, but still pretty raw. Not on many radars, but well worth the pick for an organization starved for catchers.
     
    Round 8 (230 overall) Mike Yastrzemski, OF Vanderbilt
     
    The Twins' love bloodlines, and nothing like that of a Hall of Famer. Carl's grandson was drafted by the Red Sox in 2009 in the 30th round and by the Mariners last season in the same round but did not sign. This season he will be drafted higher, because his plate discipline, fielding and contact has improved. Might be a reach in the 8th round, but he is Yaz's grandson, which beats being Liddle's nephew who was picked in the 15th round (also from Vanderbilt) by the Twins in 2009. He was raised by his grandfather, after his father died from a heart attack in 2004 (not a pretty story - ) He is a senior and will get drafted. His grandfather's size (5'10", 185) and a lefty hitter and thrower.
     






    http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/0806/bos_a_yastrzemski1x_300.jpg













    Round 9 (260 overall) Marcos Ventura OF/1B Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
     
    This is the third Puerto Rican High School kid I project the Twins to select and for a good reason: If Dave Ortiz is Big Papi and Kennys Vargas Little Papi, Marcos Ventura is Baby Papi. Tremendous physique for a growing17 year old (6'3" 220) with a lot of power and potential for more. Fielding is a work in process, like the aforementioned two, but the lefty will have a job with his bat.
     
     
     
     


    http://www.perfectgame.org/images/profilepics/12carib-wh20.jpg

     
     
    Round 10 (290 overall) Weston Wilson SS/3B Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)
     
    6'3" 190 lbs right, committed to Clemson so he will probably have to be over slot to sign. Good hands and good range and natural on the field, but some feel that he is already too big for a shortstop. Pretty good with the bat utilizing all fields, but his bat needs to mature.
     


    http://d3fsqtc6sy2z27.cloudfront.net/uploads/b5da10c66336b1cc8bdf8194b3a4974c_large

     
     
    Round 11 (320 overall) Tyler O'Neill C/SS Maple Ridge H.S. (BC, Canada)
     
    Strong Canadian righty who started as a SS and ended up behind the plate. Not an unusual combination, a lot like former Minnesota Twins' C Jose Morales. Here is a story on him from last season. Committed to Oregon State, so a team will probably have to go over slot that late in the draft. Needs to mature with the bat a bit
     
     
     


    http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4570859856331931&pid=1.7&w=140&h=185&c=7&rs=1

     
     
     
    Here is a short video:
     
    (EDIT: for some reason I cannot include videos here, please go to the original post if you would like to see the video)
     








     
    Round 12 (350 overall ) Billy Waltrip LHP Oklahoma
     
    Closest comparables: Scott Diamond and Pedro Hernandez. 6'2", 215 Lefty with a 87-89 mph FB with good command, above average curve and work in progress change up. Drafted by the Orioles in the 12 round last season but did not sign. He will this season. Unlike 2012 he lost his starting job due to some loss of command and has been pitching out of the Sooner's pen. Just a Twins' kind of guy that it will be hard for them to pass at this spot. His 2013 stats are here.
     
     


    http://coachesaid.com/Content/ContentImages/0403-baseball-billy-waltrip-fort-gibson.jpg

     
     
    Here is a 3.5 minute video of Waltrip pitching in a game:
     
    (EDIT: for some reason I cannot include videos here, please go to the original post if you would like to see the video)







     
    This post completes the 2013 Twins mock draft selections.





    As a reminder, you can find all 2013 MLB draft related posts
    here.

  22. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    I feel that an introductory paragraph is in order here. This is the fourth season I have been covering the Minnesota Twins' drafts (started about 2 years into the existence of this blog). Since day one (you can see the humble 2009 beginnings here) I have been presenting potential target players' names and profiles and have been live-blogging each pick as they were happening providing mini-profiles. This will happen this season as well, but a lot of things have changed and evolved in the internet and the Twins' blogosphere the last 4 years. I remember that I did the 2009 live-blogging only with a radio feed of the draft. Now mlb.com has taken over the show with clear and concise coverage so the need for live blogging those is not as much.
     
    What is new here for this year? The first (and hopefully) annual Twins mock draft: I will present my mock draft results for the Twins selections in the first 12 rounds. Yes. Twelve. We all have opinions and there are a lot of ideas about who the Twins might select with their first overall pick, but not many people are thinking about the later rounds, so I thought that I will give it a shot, just for fun. Of course, like all other mock drafts out there, unless someone can see all the draft boards from all teams, this is a purely recreational endeavor.
     
    Back to the story: With the 4th pick of the 2013 MLB draft, the Twins select...
     
    ... Sean Manaea (pronounced mahn-EYE-ah)
     
    Why? Because a. he is the player with the highest upside in the draft, b. because of velocity and injury concerns will fall in their lap and c. because he represents something they are missing in their organization.
     
    A little bit of a background: Sean is a junior at Indiana State University. He is a big (6'5", 240 lbs) LHP who has been starting with the Sycamores the last couple years and really made a name for himself at the Cape Code league last summer.
     
    Here is a 10 minute video from his warmup to his pitching in one game there last summer
     
    (edit: for some reason it did not transfer... Please go to the original post, if you would like to see it)
     
     
    Sean dominated the Cape Cod league hitters, with Fastballs that were hitting 97-98 mph late in the games, sharp sliders and masterful change ups; he went 5-1 in 8 GS, had a 1.22 ERA and broke the Cape Cod League record with 85 strikeouts in 57.1 IP. He gave up only 7 walks and allowed 22 hits.
     
    This sounds like a top overall pick, why would he fall down to the fourth pick?
     
    He has not been the same as far as velocity goes this season as he has been at the Cape, he has a hip injury and scouts have been souring on him as a top pick.
     
    Would that make him a risk for the Twins?
     
    Every pick is a risk but there are a lot of things in Manae's favor that scouts overlook and will make him the perfect pick for the Twins:
     
     

    Cape Cod summer league aside, his 2013 performance (even though he has hip issues) is better than his 2012 performance.
    A pitcher cannot just lose "stuff". He might lose control, but Manaea still has his control and stuff (see this, for an excellent recent scouting report that compares his performance now to his performance last summer)
    His velocity is down, but his has been the coldest spring in recent history and he is battling a hip issue (and has not lost control.)
    He has the best natural talent in the draft and the scary thing is that he has not really have much instruction (which is something that scouts avoid to say). His mechanics are awful (as you can see in the video) and with proper instruction, the sky is the limit.
    Why he did not have much instruction? Here is his story: He is not a privileged kid. He did not live in the suburbs and played in the best teams with the best coaches. His dad, Faaloloi, immigrated to Indiana after he fought in the Vietnam war. Both he and his mom are factory workers, settled at Wanatah, and could not afford special baseball instruction for their kid. Sean went to a small High School, South Central Junior-Senior High School in Union Mills, where he showed his talent but was way under the spotlight to get a College scholarship. To achieve this, he transferred to the bigger Andrean High School in Merrillville, where he flashed his excellent but raw offerings. The only school that offered him a scholarship was Indiana State, which is not a baseball powerhouse playing in a powerhouse conference.
    So, Manaea has incredible good stuff, despite horrible mechanics, despite his hip issue and he has never really received expert instruction. As far as I am concerned, this makes sky proverbially the limit.
    The Twins have 4-5 RHPs who have flashed top of the rotation talent in the minors (Alex Gibson, Alex Meyer, DJ Baxendale, Trevor May, Jose Berrios) but not a lefty. He would be the perfect top of the rotation lefty to complement some of those righties.

    So you have it: Sean Manaea, should be the Twins' 2013 first round draft pick and I think that they will pull the trigger.
     
    Who the Twins select in the later rounds? Check in this week to find out.
     


    http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0314/ncaa_a_manaea_sy_400.jpg

  23. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Last week, I discussed the reasons why the Minnesota Twins should select Sean Manaea with their first round and fourth overall pick. This week, I am presenting potential second to fifth round picks for the Twins. The Twins do not have compensatory picks this season. Brief profiles of the players also are included.
     
     
    Round 2, (43 overall): Hunter Dozier, SS, Stephen F. Austin State
     
    Would history repeat itself and the Twins will select yet another college SS (and their second Dozier recently) in the high draft rounds, even though their previous selections have not moved with the speed the Twins' hoped? He shall see, but Hunter Dozier is not like the previous college short stops they have been selecting. He is a Cal Ripken-sized SS (6-4, 220) with a lot of pop. He bats right handed. His 17 HRs have him in the top 3 in the NCAA he is hitting .394 and has 12 SBs. His arm is very strong and he has good hands. Range is an issue (and this, with his size, makes some think that he will project as a 3B at the next level) but very workable in the next level. I think that he has the tools to stick at short and this is a huge position of need in the Twins' organization. He was named Southland conference player of the year and hitter of the year. His up to date 2013 stats are here.
     
     


    http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/files/2012/03/SFA-HunterDozierDef.jpg

     
     
    Round 3, (78 overall) Andrew Knapp, C, Berkley
     
    Catcher is another position in need in the Twins' organization with no clear replacement for Joe Mauer down the line, other than potentially Josmil Pinto. Knapp is not mentioned as one of the top catchers on the draft (that would be a trifecta of high school kids) but he might as well be. An excellent game caller (he goes to Berkley for a reason) with a strong bat that projects, but would require a bit of work with his receiving skills and foot work. He hit left-handed as is 6'1" tall and weights about 200 lbs. Mostly a line drive doubles machine who likes to use the whole field (sounds like another Twins' catcher?) but projects to have home run power. Can run a bit too. Dad also a Catcher at Berkley.
     
     


    http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/cal/sports/m-basebl/auto_action/8646904.jpeg

     
     
     
     
     
     
    Round 4 (110 overall) Edwin Diaz, SS, Ladislau Martinez Otero HS, Puerto Rico.
     
    From Jose Morales to Eddie Rosario to Jose Berrios, the Twins have been scouting and drafting high school kids from Puerto Rico in early rounds and they will do it again this season. Diaz is close to the top of the 2013 draft class in Puerto Rico. He is a tall (6'2" - 180) kid who is still growing. Diaz is a lot like Pedro Florimon, but a bit more advanced with the bat at this stage of their careers. Good with the bat, hitting line drives at all fields. Right handed. Slick fielder. I think that is will be one of the first Puerto Ricans on the board. The 2013 draft class is not that great there.
     
     


    http://www.perfectgame.org/images/profilepics/1302-8-Purple-5.jpg

     
     
    Round 5 (140 overall) DJ Snelten, LHP, Minnesota
     
    The Twins make a point of selecting several players from the University of Minnesota. The ones that they have been selecting in the high rounds (the jury is still out for players like AJ Pettersen who were selected in lower rounds) have not really worked out, other than a certain LHP; so I think that they will get another. The lesser known of the 2 U of M starters and somewhat in the shadow of Tom Windle, might actually be the better pitcher. He is 6'7" and 230 lbs. Plus 91-93 mph fastball that peaks at 95 with great command and control, movement and positioning; curve and change up are serious works in progress but improving. Pitched out of the pen mostly his first 2 seasons. Could be a dominant reliever if his secondary offerings do not improve.
     


    http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/nOienINN_Nh5vBBxul6wuw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zNjA7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_US/Sports/AP_General/201305232220804293575-p2.jpg

     
     
    Here are highlights of his complete game one hitter this season against Ohio State (you can read about it here ) :





    (EDIT: I cannot embedded here, please
    go to the original post if you would like to see the video)





     





    Next: Rounds 6-12. As a reminder, you can find all 2013 MLB draft related posts
    here.

  24. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    A couple days ago I realized that the Rochester Red Wings were playing the Lehigh Valley IronPigs at my back yard. Literally, their ballpark (Coca Cola Park) is less than half an hour away from my door, so I make a point to go and see the Red Wings every year when they play there. This was their second game here, and by choice I went today instead of yesterday, because Kyle Gibson was pitching. There were a lot of conflicting reports about him and I wanted to see with my own eyes how he is doing...
     
    Not the best day for a ball game, it was in the high 50s, overcast with occasional sprinkles here and there:
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2834/8754518501_2a4d632c7f_z.jpg

     
    The ball park is probably the best one in the minors and always a joy to be there (ok I might have home town bias ) :
     


    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8555/8754518455_7a5cb7e3c5_z.jpg

     
    I got to see Gibson pitch at the pen before the game and was fairly impressed. His fastball was really popping in Eric Fryer's glove and both velocity and movement was there based on my point of view:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3683/8755642196_3f9e2d6a08_z.jpg

     
     
    After about 20 pitches I went back to my seat (1st row right next to the Red Wings dugout) from the outfield bullpen and watched the game. I was very lucky to be there because this was a magnificent pitching performance by Gibson. I came in with an open mind and nothing to expect and I left a strong believer in that Gibson is the best starting pitcher the Twins have today. A bit about his performance (and I am not going to get into things like numbers, which you can read elsewhere: He had four pitches that he threw when he wanted with a great command. His fastball was his primary pitch and was sitting from 92-94 all night long. It spiked to 95 a few times and went to 91 a couple. It was at 94 in the 9th inning as well. in the first 5 inning he mostly threw his fastball and his slider, which ran from 84 to 86 and really kept the IronPig hitters off balance causing a lot of swings and misses. Have to mention that Gibson had impeccable command of the fastball: he would locate it up and down and inside and out. And throw it at the dirt when he wanted to. In the latest innings he started throwing more his changeup that was running from 81-83 mph with a good late motion; also he featured a tight slow curve (78-80 mph) that I did not realize he had. He threw that pitch a few times late in the game. He was totally on top of his game today. In addition to what he did on the field, a thing that really impressed me was his composure in the dugout, knowing that he was having a no-hitter: he was sitting there cheering his teammates and clapping when they were batting, instead of being "in his own world" and apathetic about the game. This was a dominating performance that, I think that won him his first trip to the majors. Frankly, I thought that I will witness history and it was that close...
     
    Gibson being interviewed after the game:
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2823/8754518335_7a118c7075_z.jpg










    It was Kyle Gibson's day but a few more observations about the team and a couple of players: This looks like a close knit team with a lot of positive energy (A funny thing that happen was that when Antoan Richardson, who was the Red Wings' left fielder today, came back to the dugout, he got a hazing in jest by Clete Thomas, who did not play, and Brian Dinkelman, who was the first base coach, because the first IronPigs hit was at the left field...)







    All players seemed to have fun but one. And it was very obvious and the Twins as an organization have to do something to help him: Joe Benson. Joe was the starting Centerfielder today and had a great game at the field, getting to every ball that hit his way. At the plate he had a 2-run scoring single in his third plate appearance, he almost ran out an infield hit in his fourth and struck out in his first 2 PAs against an IronPigs pitcher who threw 69-78 mph junk. His body language was very obvious and a big sign that he is pressing and needs help. After each unsuccessful plate appearance he went back to the dugout, slapping himself and sitting alone despondent with his head in his hands. He needs help and coaching and needs someone of the Twins to tell him that it is not worth it. He is still one of the top talents the Twins have and they should do something to help him.








    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8394/8754518579_ed3477b8fb_z.jpg










    Chris Colabello had another great night at the plate and played right field. I will not be surprised if Chris Parmelee and him swap teams sometime soon. His fielding at right was uneventful, but he is better than I thought on the base paths. Speaking of base paths, Antoan Richardson late in the game hit a triple that would have been a double for most places and should have been an inside the park home run, if Gene Glynn (as a third base coach did not put the stop sign.) Plenty of time to score but the Red Wings were up by ten at that point... Chris Herrmann, another player who has been having a forgetable season so far, had a good game and looked like he enjoyed it. Which is a good thing to see.







    A few parting shots from the game:








    http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8539/8754518259_bd6438a560_z.jpg









    Chris Colabello:
     


    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2807/8754518643_f337ea330a_z.jpg

     
    Brian Dinkelman, the first base coach:
     


    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3786/8755642470_452d753bd8_z.jpg






    Some of these guys will probably be starting for the Twins one of these days (Virgil Vasquez, Liam Hendriks, Cole DeVries) :








    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3710/8755642562_7e58b2c114_z.jpg

  25. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    This is the third an last installment in this series. Yesterday, I presented the names of 114 College position players who will likely be drafted and a couple days before those of 129 College pitchers likely to join an MLB organization this early June. Today I am presenting the names of 101 High School players who are likely to get drafted (52 position players and 49 pitchers.)
     
    The one thing that we learned from the 2012 MLB draft, the first one under the newest Collective Bargaining Agreement, which had slot bonuses implemented, was that it was harder to select and sign High School players from the mainland US and Canada at slot value. Thus, fewer High School players were selected and even fewer signed. Unless a player is selected on the top rounds, signability of a High School player will be an issue.
     
    Before I present the list, I will give you a teaser about the next draft related installment here: It will be the first ever Twins mock draft where I will be presenting the names of the players I think that the Twins will draft in the first 12 rounds of the draft, starting with the number four pick overall (and it is not a conventional wisdom pick, or consensus pick - those are listed here) in a couple days. (EDIT: I finished earlier than I thought and my projected Twins' first round pick, along with rationale for the selection, is listed here.)
     
    Here is the list of the 101 High School names you should know before the 2013 MLB draft (including those of a handful of Minnesotans) :
     
    52 Position Players
     
    Willie Abreu OF Mater HS (FL)
    Christian Arroyo SS Hernando HS (FL)
    Cavan Biggio 3B/2B St. Thomas HS (TX) Craig's son
    Ryan Boldt OF Red Wing HS (MN)
    Nick Ciuffo C Lexington HS (SC)
    Zach Collins C/1B American Heritage HS (FL)
    JP Crawford SS Lakewood HS (CA)
    Tyler Danish 3B Valrico HS (FL)
    Edwin Diaz, ss, Ladislau Martinez Otero HS, (PR)
    Travis Demerritte 3B Winder Barrow HS (GA)
    Jon Denney C Yukon HS (OK),
    David Denson 1B La Puente HS (CA)
    Xavier Fernandez, c, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
    Kevin Franklin 3B/OF Cerritos HS (CA)
    Clint Frazier OF Loganville HS (GA)
    Josh Hart OF Parkview HS (GA)
    Connor Heady SS Prospect HS (KY)
    Jan Hernandez SS/2B Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (PR)
    Nick Longhi 1B/OF Venice Senior HS (FL)
    Joseph Martarano 3B Fruitland HS (ID)
    Jeremy Martinez C/3B Mater Dei HS (CA)
    Terry McClure OF Riverwood International Charter HS (GA)
    Dane McFarland OF Laguna Niguel HS (CA)
    Andy McGuire SS/3B James Madison HS (VA)
    Reese McGuire C Kentwood HS (WA)
    Billy McKinney OF Plano West HS (TX)
    Ryan McMahon 3B Mater Dei HS (CA)
    Matt McPhearson OF Riverdale Baptist HS (MD)
    Austin Meadows OF/1B Grayson HS (GA)
    Oscar Mercado SS Gaither HS (FL)
    Brian Navarreto C/OF Arlington Country Day HS (FL)
    Tucker Neuhaus SS Wharton HS (FL)
    Sheldon Neuse SS Fossil Ridge HS (TX)
    Dom Nunez SS Elk Grove HS (CA)
    Chris Okey C Eustis HS (FL),
    Tyler O'Neill C Maple Ridge H.S. (BC, Canada)
    Dustin Peterson 3B/SS Gilbert HS (AZ)
    Corey Ray OF Simeon Career Academy (IL)
    Tim Richards SS Wilson HS (CA)
    Chris Rivera SS El Dorado HS (CA)
    Cord Sandberg OF/1B Manatee HS (FL),
    Dominic Smith 1B/LHP Serra HS (CA),
    John Sternagel 3B/SS, Rockledge HS (FL)
    Jake Sweaney, C, Garces Memorial High School
    Rowdy Tellez 1B Elk Grove HS (CA)
    Riley Unroe SS Desert Ridge HS (AZ)
    Marcos Ventura OF/1B Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
    Drew Ward 1B Leedey HS (OK)
    Justin Williams OF/3B Terrebonne HS (LA)
    Ivan Wilson OF Ruston H. (LA)
    Weston Wilson SS/3B Wesleyan Christian Academy HS (NC)
    Stephen Wrenn OF/RHP Walton HS (GA)
     
     
    49 Pitchers
     
    Trey Ball LHP/OF New Castle HS (IN)
    Derick Beauprez RHP, Cherry Creek HS (CO)
    Phil Bickford RHP Oaks Christian HS (CA)
    Akeem Bostick, RHP, HS (SC)
    Jacob Brentz LHP South Ballwin HS (MO)
    Ian Clarkin LHP/1B James Madison HS (CA)
    Trevor Clifton RHP, Heritage HS (TN)
    Wil Crowe RHP Pigeon Forge HS (TN)
    Kevin Davis RHP Tr Miller HS (AL)
    Dustin Driver RHP Wenatchee HS (WA),
    Zach Farmer LHP Piketon HS (OH)
    Stephen Gonsalves LHP/OF Cathedral Catholic HS (CA)
    Hunter Green LHP Warren East HS (KY)
    Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys High School (NC)
    Thomas Hatch RHP Jenks HS (OK)
    Clinton Hollon RHP Woodford County HS (KY)
    Connor Jones, RHP, Great Bridge High School (VA)
    Ryder Jones, RHP/3B, Watauga HS (NC)
    Rob Kaminski LHP St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ)
    John Kilichowski LHP Tampa Jesuit HS (FL)
    Max Knutson LHP Mounds View HS (MN)
    Chris Kohler LHP Los Osos HS (CA)
    Matt Krook LHP St. Ignatius HS (CA)
    Brett Morales SP KIng HS (FL)
    Chris Oakley RHP, St. Augustine HS (NJ)
    Ryan Olson RHP Western Christian (CA)
    AJ Puk LHP/1B Washington HS (IA)
    Carlos Salazar RHP Kerman HS (CA)
    Kyle Serrano SP RHP Farragut (TN)
    Casey Shane RHP, Centennial HS (TX)
    Jordan Sheffield RHP Tullahoma (TN)
    Logan Shore RHP Coon Rapids HS (MN)
    Kohl Stewart SP St. Pius X HS (TX),
    Dominic Taccolini RHP Kempner HS (TX)
    Blake Taylor LHP Dana Hills HS (CA)
    Keegan Thompson RHP, Cullman HS (AL)
    Robert Tyler RHP Crisp County HS (GA)
    Matt Vogel RHP Patchogue Medford HS (NY)
    Jonah Wesely LHP, Tracy HS (CA)
    Devin Williams RHP Hazelwood West (MO)
    Garrett Williams LHP/1B Calvary Baptist HS (LA)
     
     


    http://cdn1.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10292683/mlbdraft.0_standard_352.0.jpg

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