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Thrylos

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  1. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    Without further ado, here is the 2016 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2015 list in parenthesis :
     
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--)
    DOB: 5/4/1997; Age: 18
    Positions: SS/2B
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5'10", Weight: 150 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 4/8/2013
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2014, 2015)
     
    Every season in this prospect list, I include prospects who are traditionally bypassed by many (because they have not played games in the US) and ended up picked up by the mainstream media a season or two afterwards. Last season it was Jermaine Palacios at 36; This season is Emmanuel Morel at 40, who has already 2 professional seasons under his belt before his 19th birthday. In 2015 he alternated games between the 2 middle infield positions with 17 year old Yeltsin Encarnacion for the Dominican Summer League Twins. In a league dominated by pitchers he hit .282/.428/.370 (.798 OPS), had 51 singles, 6 doubles, 5 triples in 230 plate appearances. He struck out 43 times and walked 46 times. He also stole 24 bases in 35 attempts. In other words, he reached base 43% of the time, walking more than striking out, he attempted a stole base in about 41% of his opportunities and he was successful 69% of the time. This is pretty impressive at any level of professional ball at any age in the twenty first century. You cannot teach plate selectivity and you have to have the guts to be aggressive. If Morel continues those traits when he will cross the Tropic of Cancer, and he shows signs of reliability with the glove, the Twins will have another good middle infield prospect from Latin America in their pipeline.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Will start the season in Extended Spring Training, get used to live in the US in the Twins' Fort Myers Complex and join the Gulf Coast League Twins when they start playing games after the 2016 draft
     
    Ceiling/Floor: Too early to tell
     
    39. Trey Cabbage (--)
     
     
    DOB: 5/3/1997; Age: 18
    Positions: SS/3B/LF/RF
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 3", Weight: 190 lbs
    Acquired: 4th Round Draft Pick 2015
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015)
     
    Trey Cabbage was the Twins' fourth round draft pick in the past draft from Grainger (TN) High School and is a day older from the number 40 prospect, Emmanuel Morel. Mostly a shortstop in High School, he moved all over the field in his first pro season with the Gulf Coast League. He was projected to play third base, but it will still be a work in progress, because his first try in the position (6 errors in 21 games) was not as smooth as hoped. His transition to the wooden bat has been painful as well, hitting .252/.302/.269 with only 2 doubles as extra base hits, 7 walks and 37 strikeouts in 129 PAs. Stole one base and was caught 5 times. A small sample size ray of hope: He hit He hit .350/.435/.350 overall in 20 ABs against LHPs and finished the season .321/.310/.321 in 28 August ABs. The transition to the wooden bat is not a small feat for an 18 year old and Cabbage does get the benefit of the double. Will likely work several positions in the low minor leagues to find a position that he is a good fit defensively. Before the draft he was touted as one of the "sweetest" left hand swings, since you know who, but still have to see this. Cabbage was a multi-sport player (Football and Basketball) and also pitched in High School, and some focus and taking time off this winter might help him a lot.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Starting in Extended Spring Training and focusing of figuring out which position might be the best fit for him and then playing there in the GCL.
     
     
     
     
     
     
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--)
    DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 19
    Positions: 3B/1B
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 1", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: 3th Round Draft Pick 2015
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015)
     
    Travis Blakenhorn, was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft from Pottstown (PA) High School, and like Trey Cabbage, is a left hitting third baseman who started the season and his professional career in the GCL. Unlike Cabbage he has some success with the bat, .245/.362/.408, 4 doubles, 2 triples, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts in 58 PAs, allowing the Twins to move him up a level at Elizabethton in the middle of July. In Elizabethton, he started on fire hitting .321/.387/.482 for July, and then leveled off, ending up the season in the Appalachian League hitting .243/.306/.326 with 3 doubles, 3 HRs, 11 BBs and 32 Ks in 158 PAs. Was effectively neutralized by LHP (.172/.250/.310,) but, again, the transition from aluminum to wood is not an easy one. Blakenhorn projects as a power hitter and he flashed some. Has a solid powerful build that would allow him to play at either infield corner, but his strong arm has him a better fit at third or at a corner outfield position. Blakenhorn picked up some Alex Gordon comparisons, but that is a bit of reaching at this point. Fellow Twins' prospects, Travis Harrison and the gentleman whose profile follows, might be better comparables for now...
     
    Likely 2016 path: Starting at Extended Spring Training, then the starting third baseman in Elizabethton as soon as Appalachian League play starts in June.
     
     
    37. Niko Goodrum (--)
     
    DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 23
    Positions: 3B/SS/CF
    Bats: S, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 3", Weight: 198 lbs
    Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2010
    Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2015)
     
    I have to admit, Niko Goodrum frustrates me. Has a ton of potential and never put it together in six professional seasons. As a matter of fact, he has been in an out in my top 40 prospect list for the last 3 years. Why is he in again? In a second, bit of history first: Niko Goodrum was drafted 71nd overall in the 2010 draft (a spot after Braves', and now Angels', Andrelton Simmons who has 4 seasons in the majors and a couple gold gloves.) That was the Alex Wimmers draft. Goodrum's career slash line is .244/.337/.357 and he has not been deviating by more that 0.30 or so in any of its components in his six seasons as a pro (other than his short first season of .414 OPS.) In other words he has been pretty average, or below average, at any level, which does not a good prospect make. So why is he back here again? Three reasons:

    When he moved to Chatanooga in the middle of the season, he improved his approach as a hitter. He hit .244/.332/.392 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs, 28 BBs, and 51 K in 238 PAs, in a league where .700 OPS is the average.
    Sustained improvement in base running and base stealing and considerable jump in power: Goodrum stole 20, 35 and 29 bases the last 3 seasons. He was 18 for 22 in Chatanooga this season. In addition, he hit a career high 9 HRs, more than doubling his previous best (4).
    He might have actually found a position he can play and be above average. He was drafted as a shortstop, and played most of his first 3 seasons there very erratically. He was transferred to third base the last 3 seasons with similar results. However, Doug Mientkiewitz and serendipity (not many OFs in the organization) had him at Centerfield for 15 games, in which he was a good centerfielder and better with the bat when played there. Maybe the game slowed down enough at OF for him.

    So there is enough potential and intrigue to believer that Niko Goodrum might actually make a major league centerfielder some day, if the Twins continue using him there, which they should. So Goodrum makes the list as an outfielder.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Depending on where Byron Buxton ends up, likely the starting Centerfielder for Chatanooga.
     
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--)
    DOB: 10/28/1992; Age: 23
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5' 10", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 6/10/2011
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2013-2015)
     
    Lo was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Taiwan at age 18, 4 seasons ago and has shown steady improvement to be regarded as a top 40 prospect, with a near breakout 2015 season. He pitched 31.3 innings with a 1.44 ERA (2.75 FIP) allowing 15 hits, 8 walks (0.734 WHIP) and had 43 strikeouts (12.4 K/9 and 36.4 K%) and was the primary closer for Elizabethton. On the downside he was a year and a tad older than the league average, his BABIP was .213, and he was threepeating Elizabethton, but BABIP does not affect the strikeouts, he made the transition from Taiwan to the US as a teenager and that 36.4% K is impressive at any level, making me think that he actually got "it". What is "it"? A second above average pitch. Lo has had an above average to plus fastball with good downward movement, which can reach 94 mph or so, but the rest of his repertoire was hit and miss. Reports out of Elizabethton have him throwing a "filthy" off-speed pitch, which sounds like an above average change up or slurve, but regardless, it is apparently effective. Still have to see it in person, so I reserve judgement, but there is a lot of potential there to worth inclusion in this list.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Cedar Rapids Kernels' bullpen and co-closer
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  2. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
     
    After the Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for JR Murphy, there was an assumption that Byron Buxton was de facto handed the Centerfield job to start the season. For the ones who have seen Buxton's close personal battles with breaking balls, this was not a welcome sign. Additionally, Eddie Rosario, has played Centerfield for most of his career, and there was some talk that Danny Santana, who has no business playing the OF, might be tested as a potential backup, or even starter, in case Byron Buxton is still swatting at curveballs in the dirt as if the were the State Bird of Minnesota.
     
    Today, thankfully, the Twins took one step in amending those crazy thoughts, by signing Joe Benson to minor league deal. Yes, that Joe Benson, the Twins' second round draft pick in 2006, who put up a .259/.343/.538 slash line with 27 HRs and 19 SBs in 2010 between New Britain and Fort Myers and exclamated it with great body defying defense in the Centerfield. In 2011 he was hitting .285/.388/.495 in June in New Britain with 16 HRs and 13 SBs, when he had a left knee surgery (meniscus) and was not the same, even though he was awarded with a September callup to the Twins. In 2012 he broke his hamate (wrist) in May, which he surgically repaired and had an additional surgery in August, to clean up debris from his previous surgery. After that he went downhill with the bat. I saw him in 2013 play for Rochester and he was not the same guy. You can read that here, along with a very characteristic picture of him. That season he fought additional soreness to that left wrist and was sidelined for a month and a half with a pulled groin.
     
    Benson was signed with Miami before the 2014 season where he put a respectable .264/.364/.410, 10 HRs and 15 SB in 124 games, and more importantly finished his season healthy. In 2015 he signed with the Braves were he was released after 41 games in AAA Gwinnett where he hit .246/.346/.331. After 5 games in the Independent Leagues, he was picked up by the Mets who had him be Binghamton's (AA) starting Centerfielder. He hit .250/.355/.380 in 54 games and made plays like this:
     

    Benson is a no-risk/high reward signing and a potential great story to watch while he will be fighting for a job with the Twins in Spring Training of 2016. He needs to relax and have fun out there again, like he did in 2010 and 2011, instead of pressing himself to perform at his high level of expectations and get disappointed. That catch up there made a couple of months ago, makes me think that he can do it and finally the Twins' fans will see what made him twice a top 100 baseball prospect.
  3. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
     
     
    The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected.
    Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team:
     
    RHP Jose Abreu
    Age: 23
    Height: 5' 11"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton
    Acquired: Dominican Free Agent
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014
    Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP
    Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft
    Risk %: 5%
     
     
    RHP Jason Adam
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 225 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP
    Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside
    Risk %: 30%
     
    RHP Nick Anderson
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 5"
    Weight: 195 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP
    Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project
    Risk %: 15%
     
    RHP Luke Bard
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 195 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP
    Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers.
    Risk %: 10%
     
     
    RHP DJ Baxendale
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason.
    Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP
    Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him.
    Risk %: 30%
     
     
    RHP Omar Bencomo
    Age: 26
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP
    Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted
    Risk %: 5%
     
    OF Edgar Corcino
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 210 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K.
    Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready
    Risk %: 15%
     
     
    RHP Sam Gibbons
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP
    Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Miguel Gonzalez
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 180 lb
    Highest Level: Rookie (GCL)
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP
    Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
    Risk %: 15%
     
     
    IF Niko Goodrum
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 167 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014
    Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K.
    Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat.
    Risk %: 35%
     
    1B Bryan Haar
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 215 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR.
    Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K.
    Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    OF Travis Harrison
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 215 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: 14th
    Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K.
    Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there.
    Risk %: 40%
     
     
    1B DJ Hicks
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 5"
    Weight: 245 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th
    Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K.
    Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    LHP David Hurlbut
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 221 lb
    Highest Level: AAA (one game)
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP
    Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there.
    Risk %: 45%
     
    RHP Cole Johnson
    Age: 27
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP
    Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now.
    Risk %: 70%
     
    RHP Zack Jones
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 185 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th
    Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP
    Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Felix Jorge
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic
    2015 Prospect Rank: 29th
    Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP
    Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might.
    Risk %: 50%
     
    OF Marcus Knecht
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K.
    Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason
    Risk %: 2%
     
    LHP Brett Lee
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 206 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP
    Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well...
    Risk %: 30%
     
    RHP Kuo-Hua Lo
    Age: 22
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 195lb
    Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP
    Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready
    Risk %: 10%
     
    C Joe Maloney
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+ (in 2013)
    Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K.
    Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    IF Aderlin Mejia
    Age: 23
    Height: 5'11"
    Weight: 170lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K.
    Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    SS Heiker Meneses
    Age: 24
    Height: 5'9"
    Weight: 200lb
    Highest Level: AAA (2014)
    Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted
    Risk %: 25%
     
    2B Levi Michael
    Age: 24
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 180lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd
    Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K.
    Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Alex Muren
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'3"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP
    Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him.
    Risk %: 10%
     
    C Carlos Paulino
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'0"
    Weight: 175lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Greg Peavey
    Age: 27
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 185lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP
    Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade
    Risk %: 40%
     
    C Michael Quesada
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 205lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K.
    Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over.
    Risk %: 1%
     
    RHP Dereck Rodriguez
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 180lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP
    Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means.
    Risk %: 20%
     
    C Jairo Rodriguez
    Age: 27
    Height: 5'11"
    Weight: 180 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K.
    Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like...
    Risk %: 2%
     
    1B Reynaldo Rodriguez
     
     
     
    Age: 29
    Height: 6'0"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions.
    Risk %: 55%
     
    LHP Dan Runzler
    Age: 30
    Height: 6'4"
    Weight: 210lb
    Highest Level: MLB (2012)
    Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP
    Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month.
    Risk %: 45%
     
     
    RHP Tim Shibuya
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP
    Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Matt Summers
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 205lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP
    Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far.
    Risk %: 25%
     
     
    RHP Todd Van Steensel
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011)
    2015 Prospect Rank: 34
    Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP
    Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    UT Logan Wade
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37
    Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K.
    Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors.
    Risk %: 5%
     
     
    LHP Jason Wheeler
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'6"
    Weight: 255 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP
    Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe.
    Risk %: 55%
     
    UT Stephen Wickens
    Age: 26
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K.
    Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected.
    Risk %: 15%
     
    LHP Corey Williams
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 205 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP
    Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Alex Wimmers.
    Age: 27
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 212 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall)
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40
    Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP
    Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
    Risk %: 85%
  4. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Buyng Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Ruzler to a Minor League Contract. I broke the news here, but did not have much time for analysis, since the other events happened, so here it is.
     
    The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings. Dan Rusler is not Andrew Albers or Kaleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first:
     
    Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Fransisco Giants from the University or Riveside, CA, in the 9th round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swingman, staring 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just 2 seasons after he was drafted. After that season he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giant's prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly regarded prospect.
     
    2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Afeldt. Not a shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mount with a plus plus 95-97 mph Fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Fransisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP. So what happened? A couple of things: Ruzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go to a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts in a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues".
     
    At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted on September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in Ground outs : Fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic league, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter than much because you either throw strikes, or you don't.
     
    I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land, makes me think that he was not thinking too hard, and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come Spring Training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph Fastballs and 88 mph Sliders do not grow on trees, esp. when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters.
     
    http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dan+Runzler+San+Francisco+Giants+v+Houston+mSyT7FYmdcll.jpg
    ----
  5. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    The Twins have been very busy so far this off-season, making moves that netted them Daniel Palka, Dan Runzler, the ability to exclusively negotiate with Byung Ho Park, and today they traded OF Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for back up Catcher John Ryan Murphy. There has been a lot written about this trade already, so I will not really get into details that you can read (if you not already have) elsewhere, but just want to analyze its potential effect to the 2016 Twins.
     
    If you cannot tell from the title of this piece, I am very lukewarm (at least) about this trade. Why? Here are the reasons:
    Hicks and his play in the outfield was one of the biggest reasons the 2015 Twins were competitive. They needed to fix outfield defense, and they did. Hicks was part of the solution in 2015. There is talk about replacing Hicks at CF with Byron Buxton (probably the best case scenario if his bat is ready, but will it be ready?) returning back to Danny Santana, who was part of the outfield problem in 2014, or potentially using Eddie Rosario, which might make sense, but would take a plus corner outfielder away. Just the fact that they are considering Santana as a replacement (unless it is empty talk) makes me think that Terry Ryan and company have learned nothing.
    There were personality clash issues between Hicks and Gardenhire's staff, when he was thrown under the bus for "being late in meetings", "not knowing who the opposing pitcher is" etc; but Hicks was fine under Molitor and even though I dismiss those allegations much faster than the Twins dismissed their source, there might be something there
    Despite Cashman trying to build up Murphy as a starting catcher at this point, actions speak louder than words: He did not use him as the starting catcher. And if a player is not good enough to be a starter in a contender, why should he be a starter for the Twins?
    Of course Murphy is just 24, was rated the Yankees' 4th best prospect in 2014, despite the difficulties with blocking balls and throwing runners out, he is an above average pitch framer (a trade he learned from Tony Pena.) The other encouraging thing, is that Murphy was an outfielder in High School who has been converted to a catcher and his defense in blocking balls and throwing runners out, even though not up to par, has been improving.
    Very hard to tell how Murphy will end up being with the bat as the most-days catcher, because the data we have is from sporadic back up play. The last couple of seasons in the majors, he had an acceptable slash line, however his BABIP jumped to the mid-high s300s from the high .200s in the minors? Did he turn a corner and made adjustments or is it an artifact of the small sample? His K% has been in the low 20s, which is also worrisome. But he can improve.
    My biggest objection with this trade, was pretty much part of this analysis: The Twins in 2015 were not good against RHPs, and they need to improve, so if they were looking for a Catcher to platoon with Kurt Suzuki, they need a LHB who will play more (against RHPs) and can hit RHP better than Suzuki. Murphy is not this; you cannot platoon same-side hitters; you can use them on different situations. Murphy hits lefties pretty well, but struggles against RHPs; as a matter of fact, Suzuki is better than Murphy against RHPs. At this point, other than fewer concussions, I am not sure that Murphy is bringing more to a competing team (remember that little detail?) than Josmil Pinto does. As a matter of fact he might be bringing less to the table at this point.

    However, I said that I might like this trade under one condition. What would this condition be? If the Twins use Murphy as the (less playing) Right hand side of a platoon against LHPs, let him develop a bit, and get a lefty or switch-hitting starting Catcher to face RHP, cutting ties with Suzuki. If that happens, that trade might be ok. The off-season is still young...
     
     
    http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2849/13202271055_90f257ba1d_z.jpg
  6. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    postmortem
    noun
    medical : an examination of a dead body to find out the cause of death
    : a discussion or analysis of something (such as an event) after it has ended
    (Thanks to Merriam-Webster)
     
    The Twins' season ended a full two weeks ago, in arguably their only meaningless game this season, and enough time has past to be able to look at what happened in 2015, without the disappointment of not making it to the post-season, even though they were so close, being front and center.
     
    As far as expectations go, most fans and the press did not expect the Twins to have a winning season in 2015, much less a season competing for a post-season spot. My point of view was a bit different: I suggested that the Twins needed to do only 3 things after 2014, to be able to compete in 2015. It was a pretty bold suggestion by any means, so I did have to qualify it as follows:
     
    At first read, the title of this series sounds very much like A Midsummer Night's Dream: Do I dare suggest that the team that went from 99 to 96 to 96 to 92 losses the past five seasons needs to do only three things to compete? The next number to that Arithmetic Progression up there is between 88 and 92 and that is not competing by any means. Let me explain my train of thought here before the nice kind people in white come and get me to warmer climates: [..] In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective.
     
    Let's see what were those three things, in reverse order of suggesting, and how the Twins did:
     
    1. Fixing the Attitude:
     
    The clubhouse was different in 2015 that in was in 2016, and that was partially because the attitude was different. Part of it was dismissing Ron Gardenhire and Company. Back then I suggested that breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbach (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins. I think that the results show that this was pretty much correct, if anything, the five wins number might have been on the conservative side. One cannot help to think what would had happened, had Terry Ryan chosen Paul Molitor instead of Ron Gardenhire to lead the Twins back at the first time in 2002, but that is a whole different story...
     
    Another thing that the Twins did in 2015 to change the attitude was to sign Torii Hunter. It made no sense from baseball reasons to bring in a 40-year old player with diminished skill to play every day, and potentially block several top prospects. And that he did. Trying to justify Hunter's signing, I wrote: Torii Hunter [..] has had the reputation of playing hard and giving it all. And keep working. And then work some more. Hopefully, he will bring the right attitude to the team of so many young players with so much potential. Hopefully he will be an example for hard work and never giving up. And never stop working. It looks like it happened and the Twins are looking to bring him back in 2016 for that reason. I will not comment on events that have not happened, and this piece is not for 2016, so I refrain judgement.
     
    As far as accomplishing this, the 2015 Twins, hit a bull's eye akin to the one that is outside their ballpark
     
    2. Fixing the Outfield.
     
    The 2015 Twins Outfield defense was very bad. It was bad enough for me to title the piece that was describing the defensive metrics of the 2014 Twins' outfield, Catchers in the Outfield. My premise back then was that with small changes and improvement of the young players like Aaron Hicks, even though Hunter is a below average outfielder, the Twins could have an average outfield. My conclusion was this: So, the total differential is about 36 runs, or 6 wins better than 2014, using this calculation. This still projects a below average outfield (basically because of Hunter at RF,) just not an outfield as horrible as 2014. Thus the 36 run differential vs the 57 for an average with that calculation. Can the outfield get even closer to average?
     
    Actually, the 2015 Twins, exceeded this expectation. Their outfield was 8 runs above average. How did that happen? Practically replacing Oswaldo Arcia with Eddie Rosario (+10 runs in 2015) more that half of the season, the improvement of Aaron Hicks (-3 in 2014,+2 in 2015) the sporadic play of Byron Buxton (+4), Shane Robinson (+3) was enought to balance Hunter's glove (-8). Even when the two utility players (Nunez (+1) and Escobar (0)) played the outfield, they did not hurt the Twins, like Gardernhire's catchers.
     
    A second bull's eye for the Twins.
     
    3. Fixing the bullpen.
     

    might not be bad in Meatloaf's world, but it was in the Twins', since the state of their bullpen, was the major reason they did not make the post-season in 2015. Looking at several pitching metrics, I concluded that the Twins had only 2 pitchers who were above the proverbial average pitcher in 2014: Glen Perkins and Tim Stauffer. The problem was that Stauffer forgot how to pitch starting at Opening Day, and Perkins' effectiveness nose dove after the All-Star break. Two of my suggestions on how to fix the pen by adding above average relievers was to turn Mike Pelfrey to a reliever (which would had happen, if Ervin Santana was not suspended before he threw a pitch in a Twins' official game, and would had been intriguing to see) and see what Trevor May can do in the pen. I wrote on May: Similar discussion with Pelfrey, his 91.9 mph FB average will get to the mid 90s as a reliever, plus he had the second best K% of the group in the majors and a respectable SwStr% (mostly as a starter, and will get better as a reliever.) And the cherry on top is that we led the 2014 Twins' pen with 2 Ground Balls per Fly Ball and a 57.1% GB%. May projects as an above average reliever. Spot on, but still was not enough for the Twins. 
    And here is where the frustration with the Twins' front office comes in 2015. They know that they are competing, they know that their bullpen is leaking. At the All Star Break the Twins was 2 games ahead in the second wild card spot, half a game before the Angels for the first wild card spot. At the trading deadline the fell 2 games behind the Angels and were holding to their lead for the second spot by just a game above Baltimore and Toronto. Getting Kevin Jepsen, albeit effective was the only positive move that Ryan made in the deadline. At that point, the Twins had only Jepsen and May as above average pitchers. Thirty five year old Neal Cotts and his 5.99 FIP were just dumpster diving as usual. To quote Meatloaf again, there ain't no Coup de Ville hiding at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box, and the Twins' general manager should know that by now... And the came so close. Hopefully for 2016, close will not be enough, but that is a story to be told later.
     
    So Two out of Three were bad...
     
    My overall expectation for the 2015 season after I saw the 2015 Twins play in Spring Training was positive. I wrote: I did get some 1987-like excitement there, like this might be a magic year (like that one.) But I think that they are one year away. So my prediction for 2015 is that the Twins will have the same record as their Pythagorean in 1987: 79-83. But, yes, this year feels a lot like 1987, and you never know what is going to happen...
     
    So the story of the 2015 Minnesota Twins goes: it came so close to happen. Maybe they are indeed just one year away...
     
     

  7. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -------
     
    After the trading deadline passed and with the Twins' having the league's worst record in the last couple of months and their lead for the first and then the second wild-card position was getting smaller and smaller, there was hope that Terry Ryan will do something to improve the team in the 3 biggest positions of need, shortstop, catcher and the bullpen.
     
    But he did nothing, other than trading the teams' 18th and 25th prospects (and that is from this off-season) for a 30 year old middle reliever with another year of arbitration in the middle of a 4.22 FIP and 1.333 WHIP season (and aided by a .254 BABIP.)
     
     
    The Twins' fans feel that have every reason to be upset because of Ryan's inactivity. On the other hand, they should not be, because Ryan himself said exactly what he was going to do.
     
    “I have every intention of trying to improve this club and find a piece here and a piece there,” 7/31
     
    The "a piece here and a piece there" should had clinched that Ryan will be up to his usual dumpster diving.
     
     
    “There’s nobody that’s more sensitive about that than me. They’ve done a hell of a job getting to this point, and we’re in a good position, and now it’s my responsibility to help the cause,” 7/31
     
    It was his responsibility, but if nobody holds him accountable for not doing things he is responsible, might well be anyone's responsibility...
     
    “I’m aware that one correct move by me could help that cause immensely because it’s going to change that attitude in the clubhouse. I don’t want them thinking a white knight is coming around the corner, because it might not be. But it also is a possibility that you don’t have to tinker with this too much to get us going back in the right direction.” 7/31
     
    Here you have it. Clearly; "might not be". And you don't have to tinker too much, just get a mediocre reliever who is slightly better that the awful ones that are with the club. "a piece here"; not a white knight; not an All-Star reliever. That would be too much tinkering.
     
    And here is the kicker:
     
    “We’re not going to mess around much with this major league team,” 7/31
     
    And he didn't. True to his word. And you don't have to read between lines.
     
    It was all there. Why hope that Ryan will not be Terry Ryan in 2015, since he had been Terry Ryan since 1994 (with the small break of "retiring" to let someone else deal with the Santana and Mauer contract and the Ballpark situation, before returning.)
     
    This is Terry Ryan.
     
    And unless he goes away, the Twins' fans will not see another parade downtown Minneapolis. And if the Twins' owner cares about the Country Club more than winning, he should tell the team to one who cares about winning.
  8. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Yesterday, in the first part of this series, I suggested that the Twins trade Danny Santana, Mike Tonkin and Jake Reed to the Oakland Athletics for Ben Zorbrist and Tyler Clippard; and to promote Jorge Polanco as their starting shortstop. This will address the shortstop and right hand set up positions. They Twins would need to address their Catcher deficiency and they need another lefty in the pen to complement Brian Duensing, who has been unhitable this month, and his season numbers been victimized by a .448 Target Field BABIP. I do not believe that 27 year old Ryan O'Rourke with 18 innings pitched above AA, including his current stint with the Twins, is the answer to this position for a contender. The Twins will solve that problem and the catcher problem in this trade.
     
    Trade Number 2:
     
    Tommy Milone and Jason Wheeler to the Phillies for C Carlos Ruiz and LHP Jake Diekman
     
    Why would the Twins do it?
     
     
     
    Carlos Ruiz on paper is a aging catcher who is overpaid (singed until 2016 with about $12.5 million left in his contract) and under producing (.227/.316/.303 with a 74 OPS+). However, one needs to look closely at his production: In High Leverage situations, he is 8/27 with a .296 Batting Average, 5 BB and 3 K. He is hitting LHPs at a .276/.392/.448 pace. He is someone who thrives in competitive situations and someone who makes a team better. Pitchers love to throw to him. Defensively he is average, which is not something that can be said for the current Twins' starting catcher. Jake Diekman, whom I am certain is an unknown to most Twins' fans, will be in his first year of arbitration next season and had some inconsistency and butted heads with the previous Phillies manager, enough to be demoted to the minors. He will be arbitration eligible in 2016 for the first time. He is 28. So what is there to like? His 96-98 mph fastball, coupled with one of the most devastating lefty change ups in the business. The Phillies could see beyond his 5.19 ERA and the fact that he allowed 31% of the runners he inherited to score. His 3.40 FIP, 27.4 K% and .394 BABIP indicate that he is a prime candidate for a change of scenery. He does have closer stuff. Giving away Tommy Milone, in addition to being an addition by subtraction, bringing the Twins' FIP leader, Trevor May, back to the rotation, is a cash balancing move. He is making close to $3 million this season and he will be in the second season of arbitration next season. Jason Wheeler is a 24 year old LHSP with a career 36-26, 3.60 ERA (3.56 FIP), 1.362 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 record in 96 minor league games, who occupies a 40 man roster spot for the Twins, and does not have much future in the organization, other that a long reliever or bottom of the rotation starter.
     
     
    Why would the Phillies do it?
     
    The Phillies are rebuilding and they are in full fledged SALE mode, with the upcoming change in Front Office leadership. They will be saving enough money and getting a couple of young arms who they can potentially plug in their rotation right away and rely on them. Milone's staff might work better in the National League. Wheeler is a fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, with fastball being his best pitch and runs in the low 90s but with a lot of controllable movement. If one of his secondary pitches improves, he can actually be a serviceable starter or a bullpen piece, for a system that is really depleted of prospects.
     
    http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/files/2014/04/Carlos-Ruiz.jpg
    ----
  9. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    A couple days after the All Star game, the Twins find themselves nine games above .500, and in the midst of a competing season. The fact that the Twins are competing, might be a surprise to some, but from what I have seen in Spring Training, this team had all the making of a competing team, and I even compared it to the 1987 team. Like the 1987 team, which would not have won if not addressing them, the 2015 Twins have some glaring weaknesses that they would need to fix. These weakness are at their Bullpen, Catcher, Shortstop and the Power department. I will be proposing three trades that the Twins would need to make right now to not only ensure the continuation of competitiveness, but to propel themselves to the next level.
     
    Trade number 1:
     
    Danny Santana, Mike Tonkin and Jake Reed to the Oakland Athletics for Ben Zorbrist and Tyler Clippard.
     
    Why would the Twins do it:
     
    Tyler Clippard, even though he is not a top closer any more, will be a great improvement over the likes of Casey Fien and Blair Boyer in solidifying the RH setup spot in the pen. Zorbrist brings a glove that plays in every position in the diamond and will solidify the utility role shared by the Eduardos (Escobar and Nunez.) The Twins should call up their number 2 prospect (after they called up number 1 and number 3,) Jorge Polanco, who is the future and the present of the team as the starter at Shortstop. The 21 year old has been hitting .300/.340/.399 between Chattanooga and Rochester and his glove is at least as good as Santana's at this point. Zorbrists and Clippard are 30-something, but are free agents after this season, so the financial commitment is not going to impede any future teams. Clippard can potentially be extended, if his performance dictates it. They are not loosing that much in Santana, Tonkin and Reed. Santana, despite his comet-like 2014, still profiles as a utility player and needs work on both sides on the plate, Tonkin had plenty of opportunities to prove himself in the bigs, many more that relievers with better minor league record like Anthony Slama, and has failed. Still has a 95 mph fastball than an organization will find usefull. Jake Reed has a very good pro career so far, but an abysmal 2015 and the Twins' draft has at least 4 RHRP in the Twins' minors (Burdi, Chargois, Peterson, Achter - in no order) ahead of him, thus making him expandable. It will also allow Jorge Polanco to join Sano and Buxton, making the future the present. Yes, the Twins are losing some talent, but a. they need to give value to get value and b. have better talent in those positions.
     
    Why would the Athletics do it:
     
    Other than the prorated $16 million reasons between the two players (about $7.5 M in salary relief), for a team that is not going anywhere, they are getter 3 young players who do have potential. Santana's 2014 season might have not been as much a mirage as I think it was, and two young arms with high 90s heat and record of success, are more than something to consider.
     
    This is probably the definition of a win-win trade.
     

  10. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Minnesota Twins, have announced several cuts, trimming down their Spring Training roster to 31. They announced that Jordan Schafer won the starting Centerfielder job, with Shane Robertson, backing him up and platooning against LHPs. They also announced that Mike Pelfrey will be in the bullpen and the 5th starter will be Tommy Milone. Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May and Mark Hamburger were cut as a result. Also, it was announced that Danny Santana will be the starting Shortstop. Yesterday Lester Oliveros was outrighti
     
    It might seem as a surprise to some, but from what I have seen during Spring Training it was pretty much anticipated. This is my guess of the Twins' 25 men Opening Day roster 5 days ago from Fort Myers:
     

    My only surprise was Milone over May, but by then May did not have his last (pretty unfortunate) outing. I had argued early and often that Pelfrey was better suited for the pen and that is where he should end up and really that decision was pretty much obvious around last weekend. Also, I was convinced that Robinson had a chance for the fourth outfield job (remember, he was a fourth outfielder in a World Series team?) Robinson and Schafer pretty much outhit both Hicks and Rosario and it was obvious with their play on the field that they were ahead of the competition.
     
    Still a few battles are left, mainly for the back up catcher and 2 bullpen jobs, but as I indicated then, I strongly believe that Chris Herrmann will win the back up catcher position (and not only because Josmil Pinto suffered a concussion) and Blaine Boyer (not Doyle as in the tweet) and JR Graham will win the last 2 bullpen jobs over the lefties Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar, both of whom have options.
     
    The opening day roster is set, but there is only 1 open spot on the 40-man roster, and Boyer and Robinson will need 2. Pending any trades, I think that Michael Tonkin's, and Stephen Pryor's spots (and even Logan Darnell's, but he is a starter so likely more valuable) are the ones closer to jeopardy, since there are several pitchers ahead of them.
     
    In additon to the major league moves, in minor league moves involving former top 40 prospects, the Twins announced the retirement of C Tyler Grimes (number 38 prospect before the 2014 season) and that they released C Matt Koch (number 22 prospect before the 2014 season), RHP Tyler Jones (number 39 prospect before the 2014 season), IF Will Hurt and LHP Josue Montanez
    ----
  11. Thrylos
    Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    Today the Twins were playing against the Philadelphia Phillies at Clearwater, so it was a back field day at Fort Myers, to have a better look at the Twins' prospects. Blustery and overcast day, which rained up in Clearwater enough to delay the Twins-Phillies start time and later in Fort Myers to wash everything out in the back fields at around the 8th inning.
     
    But there was some great action: At field three, the AAA players were playing against the Orioles AAA team and at field four, the AA players against another Oriole team. Later at field two the Twins high A and A teams had a scrimmage. Because of the weather situation at Clearwater, Ervin Santana stayed at Fort Myers, to join the AAA team, and it was the focus of attention. I am certain that there will be reports about his pitching, LEN3 was there, among others, and was watching carefully, but my attention was at field four at the Chattanooga team. I did see Santana throw 4 sliders in a row, which left a wide-eyed Orioles played unable to do anything but strike out looking (one was in the ground for a ball) and I had enough.
     
    For the Lookouts, the starter was DJ Baxendale, a pitcher who pitched the single most dominating game I have ever seen two years minus a day ago, and made it all the way to number 15 in my 2014 off-season Twins prospects list, but struggled mightly once he reached New Britain, so I was eager to see how he was pitching. He pitched with mixed results. His fastball was from 88-92 with excellent movement and excellent command in the first 3 innings. He threw (not enough times) a low 70s curve that did make knees buckle and he commanded it pretty well. However his high 70s slider was lacking command and his low 80s changeup was inconsistent. I am not sure whether that slider is a new introduction to his repertoire (did not have it back then) but it does not seem like it is working. Some of the changeups were great, with a lot of tailing movement away from LHBs, but others were on the ground. Most of the mistakes were on hanging sliders, and one happened with 2 outs, after Niko Goodrum dropped an easy double play ball while trying to take it out of his glove. I think that Baxendale has shown flashes, but was not the same commanding pitcher I saw previously.
     
    Staying with the pitching side for the lookouts, he was replaced by Madison Boer who was once a borderline Twins' top ten prospect, but looked really tentative. His fastball was at 89-92 with not much movement, but did induce a couple of fly outs, and was supplemented by a violent mid-80s slider that has a lot of bite and the makings of a really filthy offering, but at this point it is not a well commanded pitch. This season is a make or break season for Boer, I believe. With a couple more miles on his fastballs and command of his slider, I do see him as a potential reliever, but the problem is that the Twins have at least half a dozen more ready righty pen arms at this point. Tim Shibuya relieved Boer and did not change my mind from what I wrote about him a couple days ago here.
     
    This Chattanooga team is a powerful one. There were 5 home runs hit at that game. Two, one from Michael Gonzalez and Adam Walker (the Twins' number 31 prospect, who had a second one to the right field) hit the middle of the batter's eye at dead center, beyond the 405 feet fence, with Walker's being a screeching line drive, while Gonzalez' a monster fly. DJ Hicks added another one to the right center, which landed at the next field and Jason Kanzler, who is doing all he can to impress while keeping Buxton's Centerfield position warm, until the major league CF job is done and the AA outfielders get demoted, hit a fifth over the left field fence. Even though the home runs were impressive, I think that the best plate appearance was by the most powerful member of the Lookouts' team and it was not a home run: with Terry Doyle, a familiar face, on the mound for the Orioles, Miguel Sano went 0-2 on a questionable inside looking strike one and a swinging strike two. He took the next four pitches (all balls and some close) and walked right before the DJ Hicks' home run. This shows that Sano is maturing as a hitter and recognizing the strike zone, which is a great thing to see from the Twins' top prospect who has been criticized about "striking out too much" by some.
     
     
     
    ..

     
    A few interesting sightings at Field Two:
     
    Felix Jorge was back on the mound throwing his pitches with good velocity and excellent command after a fairly disastrous season split between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.
     

     
    Also at hand was the Twins' number six prospect, Amaurys Minier who played left field. He made an excellent fielding play at left on a ball that was caught by the (by then really heavy) wind and moved towards the infield and his swing can generate a lot of power. He has a very powerful build, but still a lot of athleticism. In a way similar to Sano at that age, he appeared like a man among boys in that field:
     

     
     
    A couple of parting thoughts from Field Four about the Twins' number 2 and 3 prospects: Jorge Polanco made a couple of difficult plays at shortstop look routine. I am not sure how the rumors about him not being a good shortstop fielder are spread and why, but every time I see him, I am looking at an above average shortstop play. Byron Buxton has a hard time with off-speed pitches. His last plate appearance went like this: FB- Looking Strike, CH - Swinging Strike, CH (dirt in front plate) - Ball, FB (high) - Ball, FB (inside) - Ball, CH - Swinging Strike - K. Interesting situation in the outfield involving Mike Kvasnicka who played left and Buxton: There was a play at left close to center and both were going for the ball, with Kvasnicka, very loudly yelling "I got it" and Buxton letting him get it. Good to see that the lesson from the last time those guys went after the same ball was fully learned.
     
    You can find all the 2015 Spring Training coverage from Fort Myers and beyond, here.
  12. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----The Twins has a couple split squad games today, against the Rays at Port Charlotte and at the Hammond Stadium against the Orioles. Here are my notes from the home game:
     
    After Alex Meyers' demotion yesterday, there are only 3 pitchers left in the battle for the 5th rotation spot: Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May. The last 2 started the respective games today, with Milone taking the node for the home game. While May ended up pitching a no-hit 4 innings at Port Charlotte, Milone had an adventurous start in Fort Myers. He is a pitcher who really needs to be spot on and if he is not, it is like a batting practice, and the Orioles showed that in the second inning, when they timed perfectly his 83-87 mph Fastballs, hitting them all over the park, and one (by former Twin Steve Pearce) off the staircase that leads to the RF berm, for a HR. He complemented his fastball with a 79-81 mph change and a 73-75 mph curve that were hit and miss. Totally unimpressed with Milone, maybe because I do not think much about LH junk ball pitchers, but I think that after today Milone took a step back from Pelfrey and May in that competition.
     
    To be noted: in the Orioles 4-run second inning, Josmil Pinto was hit three times! by Adam Jones' back swing on the head and left the game after the inning was over. Mildly surprised that the Twins' pitchers did not retaliate for their catcher, but the next pitcher who faced Adam Jones, was Glen Perkins... Perkins had a decent outing, other than hanging an 82 mph slider to Delmon Young for a HR in the 5th. 9 pitches, 6 FBs (90-92,) 3 SLs (81-82) all but one strikes, but a strike was a long one too. He was pounding the zone, but he is at least 4-5 mph with both of his pitches from where he needs to be.
     
    Brian Duensing pitched 2 scoreless innings and he seems in mid-season form with all 4 of his pitches working: His Fastball was 89-91, threw 2 curves at 73, one for a looking strike, got a ground out and a couple of looking strikes with a mid 80s change and his slider was fairly lively at the low 80s, inducing a couple of jammed pop ups. Watching JR Graham pitch was a treat and I think that the Twins have found a good one. Will be very surprised if he does not make the team. He pitched 2 scoreless innings, and here is the sequence of his pitches (fastball unless mentioned) : First inning: 91-ball ( B ), 93 swinging strike (SS), 94 ground out (GO). 94 fly out (FO). 94 Foul (F), 84 (SLider) Looking Strike (LS), 86 (SL) SS. Second inning: 92 Hit. 95 B, 91 B, 93 LS, 94 F, 95 F, 81 (CHange up) B, 93 LS - K. To Mr Parmelee: 91 B, 96 F, 85 (SL) B, 84 (SL) F, 85 (SL) SS - K. 95 SS, 92 B, 95 B, 96 GO. Very good movement with the fastball, and, as you can see, he does very his speeds. Changeup is not his stronger pitch and he threw only one, but his slider is above average. Looking forward to seeing him this season with the Twins.
     
    As far as position players, disappointed with Torii Hunter who killed a couple of Twins' rallies, the first by hitting into a double play with the bases loaded and one out on the first and the second by striking out with runners in scoring position and one out. If you read the box score, you'd think that Danny Santana had a good day with two hits, but what the box score does not show is a couple of awful swinging strike outs and a dropped ball when Rohlfing tried to throw the runner away that ended up moving the runner to third. I think that the battle for the starting Shortstop position is neck to neck as far as Santana and Eduardo Escobar are concerned. Hicks had a bad day at the plate and had a mishap (took a bad route and the ball dropped inches from his foot, but was too shallow) at the outfield that went for a double and a trapped ball that he could have caught. Between the four centerfield contenders nobody has really pulled ahead at this point. Eddie Rosario is hitting .242/.235/.515, Shane Robinson .269/.345/.385, Hicks .222/.313/.370 and Jordan Schafer .217/.357/.261. Pick your poison. Oswaldo Arcia had a good play with the glove on a shallow fly ball that he aggressively called Hicks away and fielded cleanly; that ball would had been an adventure for Willingham last season.
     
    Really impressed with the improvements at Hammond Stadium, but there are a few things sorely missing: A couple of (small) infield boards; one to indicate balls and strikes and outs and the other pitch velocity. The main board is not visible from all outfield seats well. But there is always next year.
     
    Tomorrow and Monday, there are no home games for the Twins, so expect full coverage of the action at the minor league fields.
     

  13. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -------------
    Today the Minnesota Twins hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates at Hammond Stadium. As usual, before the game I trotted by the minor league fields that today were hosting a celebrity from the baseball world:
     

     
    A dad watching his kid pitch a bullpen:
     

     
    And then walk with him after he was done:
     

     
    Interesting enough, not many fans had an idea of who the dad was. And he was about as humble as a baseball superstar as I have seen. He had his picture taken with fans and shook his head and smiled when I told him that his kid has a great arm, from one dad to another. And Derek Rodriguez does have a great arm. He was tossing nice crisp fastballs when he got his mechanics right. But his mechanics were all over the place to begin and his pitching coach was there talking to him pitch after pitch, and Derek incorporated the feedback. I think that making the transition to pitching will be hard, but I think that he has the determination, the tools and the family and Twins support to do it. Will likely start 2015 in Extended Spring Training, but I fully expect him to see him progress fast.
     
    Every Spring Training there are a couple of players who are relatively unknown, but do make an impression to me. The first one I will point this year is Jack Barrie, a 19 year old Aussie First Baseman who made his pro debut last season with the GCL Twins. This kid has Kennys Vargas written all over him. Great plate presence, quick wrists, one to keep an eye on. And I bet you never have heard of him.
     
    Back to the big boys playing the Pirates. Kyle Gibson started for the Twins and after his recent discussion about adding velocity, I was betting that we'd see at least one 95 mph fastball on the (2 mph or so) fast Hammond Stadium radar, and we did. The problem with Kyle today was that his 93-95 mph fastballs were lacking the movement and the downward break his 90-92 mph fastballs did. Also his slider was not there (he threw 2 in the first innings, including the first HR to Cervelli). In the third inning, he seems that he threw all sliders and change ups. At least he was working the kinks out. No worries about Gibson.
     
    In a tale of two who are fighting for the 25th man spot on the roster. Eduardo Nunez beat out a cleanly-fielded ground ball to the SS (our own Pedro Florimon, btw) for an infield hit and managed to steal second two pitches afterwards. Shane Robinson (who is fighting for the same spot,) drove him in with a scorcher on the first base line and then, after Dozier was hit by a pitch to fill first, was thrown out at third on a double steal that found Dozier safe and sound at second. Robinson had some decent plays at left today, but I still think that Nunez is probably fighting with Herrmann (who did not play) for this spot as is now...
     
    Back to arms. Blaine Boyer came in to pitch in the middle of an inning and was effective. And then pitched another inning and was effect, but in his second inning his velocity picked up a few notches. His fastball moved from 89-90 all the way to 93-94, his curve from 73 to 76 and he threw some change ups at mid 80s (all well commanded, btw,) which made me think that indeed there might be some pitchers who are different (and better) if they come up with no outs and no ons on the top of an inning. Michael Tonkin and Stephen Pryor followed. Tonkin, who have since been opted, topped up at 94 and so did Pryor, who really did some nifty glovework in a comebacker, which made me think whether there are any real fastball pitchers left on the roster, since that gun is 2 mph or so fast and these 3 are pitchers touted to hit high 90s. Maybe too early, but still somewhat concerning...
     
    In another note, it was great to see Toper Anton again, and meet Steve Lein and John Bonnes. See you guys around the next few days.
  14. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    Today the Minnesota Twins played against the Rays at Fort Charlotte, which meant minor league side by side double-header action of Rochester and Chattanooga against the Red Sox' AAA and AA squads at fields 4 and 5 of the Complex.
     
    The much anticipated moment today was the return of Glen Perkins who got the first inning with the AAA club against the PawSox. Based on reports from people who were at Fort Charlotte, he did not feel any pain. He was carted to and fro field number 4, which is the furthest away from Hammond Stadium and he threw warmup tosses to Kyle Knudson, who was also the starting Catcher for the Red Wings. During the game, he threw 14 pitches, most strikes. His fastball was sitting at 90-91, hitting 92 and 93 once each. His slider was at 81-82, all figures that are a good 4-5 mph below his season form, but it is still the second (he pitched against the Gophers) game for him. During his warm ups he did seem to throw a couple of changeups, but could had just been slow fastballs. All in all a good appearance, but he has to ramp up pretty quickly.
     

     
     
    The second biggest name, as far as players are concerned, was Miguel Sano who played at Field number 5 with the Chatanooga squad. His agent, Rob Plummer, was on site and had a change to have a very enlightening (but off the record) conversation with him. Interesting guy and he seems really proud of the fact that he signed Sano when he was 14. Miguel answered with a three-run monster home run that likely broke a window or two at the subdivision past the fence, with this swing, off William Cuevas :
     

     
     
    As a side note, Sano appears fitter than last season.
     
    Speaking of celebrities, Tom Kelly was at hand and had a chance to meet with one of his former pitchers, Paul Abbott, who pitched for Kelly's Twins from 1990-1992:
     

     
     
     
    I had a chance to see several other prospects and here are quick notes:
     
    Greg Peavey was selected by the Twins from the Mets in the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft last winter. He came in to pitch after Glen Perkins in the AAA side and was pretty impressive. He has three pitches: A 90-91 mph Fastball, a low 70s slow curve and a low 80s change. Pitching mostly with the first 2, but his change did produce strikeouts. Good control and command of all his pitches, very fluid motion; he is definitely a dark horse. A mature pitcher. Also in the AAA side of things, Cole Johnson made a good appearance. He is a fastball slider pitcher with his FB hitting 94 but his slider location was inconsistent. Pretty early in Spring training for that.
     
    On the AA side of things, both Nico Goodrum and Michael Gonzalez appear different. Gonzalez appears much fitter and for the 27 year old, this might be his last chance in a Twins' uniform. Goodrum has been working with a personal trainer this off-season and he got some muscle. He is also taking much more robust at bats, than last Spring Training. If you squint really hard, you might confuse him with Byron Buxton, as far as physique goes:
     
     

     
    As far as the pitchers at the AA side went, Tyler Duffey started, but I chose to look at Glen Perkins and Greg Peavey next door. I did have a good look at Jeff Reed, who was unhittable at the Arizona Fall League and was really impressed. His fastball was at 95-96 this early and his slider at high 80s. I will not be surprised is he and Nick Burdi are with the big club come August or so. Interesting 3/4 delivery with a fairly aggressive motion. Tim Shibuya pitched a couple good innings. He is really deceptive and one of those "rubber arm" guys. Good repeatable mechanics, good control and command, I really see him as the long man in a major league bullpen some day.
     
    It was a treat seeing Jorge Fernandez, my 19th Twins' prospect, to catch today. Really good hands , excellent feet (he got a guy out on a difficult high bounce off the home plate) and very good receiving ability. I never had any doubts about his bat, but really liked what I saw with the glove today. He is a guy who is not considered a prospect, does not get many praises, but I really enjoyed watching Stephen Wickens play today. Good fundamentals and instincts on both sides of the ball, good glove and versatility, might get the 26 year old into the big leagues some day, if he gets his contact rate and plate discipline a bit higher.
     
    As a parting shot, here is Sam Perlozzo, the long time major league coach and manager, who started his playing career with the Twins, having an 1 on 2 base-running tutoring session with the Twins' number 2 and 3 prospects.
     

     
    Tomorrow the Twins are hosting the Pirates at Hammond Stadium and I will be there. You can find all my 2015 Spring Training posts here.
  15. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    This is the third and last, but not least, segment in this series. You can find the first segment (fixing the bullpen) and the rationale for the series here, and the second segment (fixing the outfield) here. I think that the most important (and some times the hardest or the easiest) thing to fix for the Twins to win, is the team attitude.
     
    How do you measure attitude and how does attitude prevent some one to win, and what is that "attitude" thing anyway. Isn't that thing that your parents and teachers talked about when you were growing up, or something else. Well, as far as baseball goes, I will let former Twins' player and Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington describe it in this 30 second video. To borrow Washington's words from there, a winning attitude is when you "expect to win" and "do everything you need to do to win". Arguably, the Minnesota Twins the last couple of decades has as motto (at their best,) do all you can do (aka bust your tail) and you win some, you lose some. Those were exactly the words of a smiling Michael Cudduyer at the Twins' dugout, on September 30, 2008, after the Twins lost game 163 at the White Sox (and part of the reason was that Cuddyer did not do what he needed to do to win, colliding with and forcing the ball out of AJ Pierzynski's glove to score.)
     
    And giving it all and being "good enough" has been the Twins' motto. And the majority of the fans were ok with "good enough", winning the title of the weakest division in baseball about half of the time, going belly up during the post-season and when they played the AL East, in the 00s. And if the fans are happy with "good enough", you get a brand new ballpark and brand new season ticket sales and that is more that "good enough" as far as revenue goes, when it is not broken, why even bother to think about fixing it? That was the Twins' past decade of "Glory", in half a paragraph. And then it went South.
     
    What happened? Well, the Twins did not even do all they could do in the ballpark; add that to a culture of favoritism in the clubhouse, where it did not matter to whether the veterans did all they could do, but when people outside the inner circle opened their mouths were thought under the proverbial bus; add that to not expecting to win, to start with, and you got 99 + 96 + 96 + 92. And most importantly, no excuses for even the most single-sighted fans to believe that this team can win, thus a drop in tickets, thus a drop in revenue, thus...
     
    To win, a team needs a leader who expects to win and make sure that his players and coaches do everything they need to do to win. Here was the most common expression of the previous Twins' leader during games the last several seasons (hanging on to the dugout railing optional) :
     

     
    Is this the expression someone who is doing all he needed to do to win and lead by example. Is this the expression of someone who expects his team to win? Or is this the expression of someone who looks defeated and solemn? Rhetorical question.
     
    There was not a more obvious time for me to see that the Twins players not only doing what they needed to do, but not even all they could do, and was fine with the manager and the coaches, than this particular game last spring training. Before I went down there last season, I did have hopes that with the changes they made in the rotation, plus some players improving, had a chance to break even and have an 81-81 record. But after what I saw, I predicted that the Twins will end up the 2014 season with a 70-92 record.
     
    That is the past, and tomorrow I am landing at Fort Myers where I will be for more than a week and be able to see how thing are, but I have a good feeling that they are heading the right way. Other than getting rid of their manager and pitching coach, which by itself is adding 10 wins pretty much, and replacing them with good baseball people and a Hall of Famer as manager, they brought back Torii Hunter. It did not make much sense at the beginning, and I think that they guy is a prick, plus he left the Twins' in free agency just for money and he added insult to the injury, by singing with the biggest division rival in his second free agency, but there might be something positive: As I indicated here, Hunter can help the young players (who were tainted by the Twins' clubhouse attitude, it is no secret) realize that they have to at least give it all and lead by example.
     
    I have seen signs from Molitor that he is leading his players towards doing what they need to do. First example, was the no-cell phone policy during game days, which was awful last season. Players need to focus in the game and not in their social media during game day. Second, he benched Aaron Hicks during a game for losing track of outs; a gesture that has not happened during a Twins' Spring Training since 1965, when Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup because of lack of effort. And you know what the Twins did in 1965. Also, after a couple of mishaps in short fly balls and lack of communication between infielders and outfielder, Molitor had extra drills of those circumstances with the whole team. The whole team. In previous years, veterans and the inner circle would be excluded and only few would participate in similar drills.
     
    There are a lot of positive signs about (at least) a realization that the teams attitude needed to change to win, and actual steps taken this direction. I will be able to know more about how things will play out in this department, in 10 days or so, after I return from Fort Myers and see the team play this Spring. Last year I predicted that 70-92, based on what I saw, I hope that this year, it is the reverse...
  16. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
    After the 18 recent cuts the Twins made (some of them unannounced yet) yesterday, the camp roster was trimmed to 43 players. I did provide a break down of those players by position yesterday, also mentioning whether they have options or whether they are on the 40-man roster. Based on these numbers, I am taking a preliminary look at the Twins' potential opening day roster, position by position:
     
    Position players (13)
     
    Catchers (2/3)
     
    Suzuki, and one of Pinto/Fryer/Herrmann. Herrmann might be added as a third catcher/Utility. Fryer is not on the 40-man roster
     
    Infield (6/7)
     
    Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Escobar, Plouffe. One or both of Vargas and Nunez. Nunez is out of options
     
     
    Outfield (4/5)
     
    Arcia, Hunter and two or three of: Hicks, Rosario, Robinson, Schafer. Schafer is out of options, Robinson is not on the 40-man roster.
     
    Pitchers (12)
     
    Starting Pitchers (5)
     
    Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson; one of Milone, Pelfrey, May, Meyer. All have options, but Pelfrey has to accept assignment.
     
     
    Relief Pitchers (7)
     
    Perkins, Duensing, Fien
     
    one or two of Milone, Pelfrey, May, Meyer
     
    two or three of Pressly, Stauffer, Thielbar, Tonkin, Achter, Graham, Thompson, Boyer, Pryor, Hamburger. Stauffer and Graham (rule 5) have no options, Boyer and Hamburger are not on the 40 man roster.
     
    These are the major battles right now in the Twins' camp:
     
    The Starting Centerfielder and fourth outfielder: Hicks/Scafer/Rosario/Robinson. The first two have higher probability to win the CF starter. If Scafer wins, both Hicks and Rosario will be optioned because they will need to play daily, making Robinson the fourth outfielder. If Hicks or Rosario win the starting position, both Schafer and Robinson can make it as a fifth outfielder. Robinson is on the 40-man roster, but might take Graham's spot if he does not stick. Verdict: Too early to tell, but looks like Hicks & Scafer will be the 2 who are going north
     
    The backup Catcher: Pinto, Herrmann and Fryer are fighting for one spot. Fryer is not on the 40-man roster, thus having a bigger mountain to climb. Herrmann will be in the utility fight as well. Verdict: Too early to tell, both Herrmann and Pinto have been good with the bat this Spring, Fryer has not, but has been very good with the glove. This might go until the last days.
     
    The Utility Position: Nunez, the one of Schafer or Robinson who did not make the cut in the Outfield and Herrmann will be fighting for one position. Verdict: Too close. Scafer and Nunez are out of options, Robinson is not on the 40-man roster.
     
    The 5th Starter and one or two bullpen positions: Milone, Pelfrey, May and Meyer are fighting for one spot. Verdict: Milone and Pelfrey are the forerunners here, in a battle that will be bought to the end with the loser going to the pen. I think that Meyer will likely start at Rochester; May has a chance to make the Twins' pen, thus getting 2 pen positions from this group.
     
    The final 2-3 bullpen positions: Pressly, Stauffer, Thielbar, Tonkin, Achter, Graham, Thompson, Boyer, Pryor, Hamburger. The three most veteran pitchers in this group (Pressly, Stauffer and Tonkin) have been the Twins worst pitchers in Spring Training, while Hamburger, Pryor, Graham and Thompson have been shining. Verdict: This can go both ways. The safest would be to option May, and start with Stauffer, Thielbar and Graham. Would it be the best? Likely not, based on what Stauffer and Thielbar have shown. Will be interesting to see how this will shake out as well. This decision will also be very telling about Molitor's and Allen's philosophies.
  17. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    A great article was written today by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, called FIP in Context, introducing an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". Always interested in new pitching metrics development, and not only because I have partaken myself in the endeavor. this is an interesting one, albeit much more complex than PE and xPE. It also correlates well with SIERA, which along with xPE (because it is easy to calculate) are my 2 favorite predictive metrics regarding pitching performance.
     
    I will not steal Jonathan's thunder, please read that excellent article, but I will present his framework and then present his work regarding the Twins' pitchers (he calculated cFIPs for every pitcher in the league the past 4 years, including Jamie Carroll.) The cFIP scale is normalized to 100 for average, just like OPS+ and ERA+, but it is a minus scale, meaning that less is better, like ERA and FIP and SIERA and all similar metrics. Should have been called cFIP-, but that is a different story. So 100 is average and less is better. Jonathan Judge has the following buckets of pitchers, according their cFIP:
     
     
    <70 nbsp="" p="" superb="">70–85 Great
    85–95 Above Avg.
    95–105 Average
    105–115 Below Avg.
    115–130 Bad
    130+ Awful
     
    Let's put the 2014 Minnesota Twins' pitching staff in those buckets. For reference, players that are not still with the team are in (parenthesis). I am also including the 2015 cFIP numbers of the newcomers this off-season. They have an asterisk behind their names, that would have made Barry Bonds jealous:
     
    Superb:
    Phil Hughes 70
     
    Great:
    Glen Perkins 74
     
    Above Avg.:
    Casey Fien 89
    Tim Stauffer 91*
    (Yohan Pino 94)
     
    Average:
    Aaron Thompson 98
    Logan Darnell 99
    Ricky Nolasco 100
    Trevor May 101
    Ervin Santana 101*
    Michael Tonkin 102
    Caleb Thielbar 103
    Blaine Boyer 103*
    Lester Oliveros 105
     
    Below Avg.:
    (Jared Burton 106)
    (Kris Johnson 106)
    (Sam Deduno 107)
    Stephen Pryor 108
    Kyle Gibson 109
    (Anthony Swarzak 111)
    A. J. Achter 112
    Ryan Pressly 112
    Brian Duensing 114
    Tommy Milone 114
     
    Bad:
    (Matt Guerrier 116)
    (Kevin Correia 119)
     
    Awful:
    Mike Pelfrey 132
     
    A few obsevations:

    According to this, the Twins had a superb pitcher, Phil Hughes, a great pitcher, Glen Perkins, and 13 total (I am not counting the newcomers) pitchers (that is a full MLB staff, ladies and gentlemen) who were average, above average, great or superb. Mike Pelfrey (who tied for worst in the majors in this metric) was the only awful pitcher in the Twins' staff
    But, The Twins had the second worst bullpen in the majors according to xFIP and SIERA and the third worst rotation in the majors, according to SIERA (fourth according to xFIP)
    Other than Yohan Pino, who was an unfortunate loss, The Twins' front office seems to behave pretty well according to this metric: The pitchers they let go, are all bellow average or beyond. They did keep a few below average pitchers, and they did keep Mike Pelfrey, who is better suited for the pen and was injured. Other than Duensing who had a down season, the below average pitchers are all young.

    Big issue in the big picture here: The Twins had a whole staff worth (13) pitchers who were average and above, yet they managed to be almost at the bottom of the league in pitching. Those things seem pretty conflicting.
     
    Let's dig deeper and check out the 2013 Twins' cFIP buckets that Jonathan Judge calculated. For reference purposes, players who left after 2013 are in parenthesis and I added Ricky Nolasco (with an asterisk) as well
     
     
    Superb:
    Glen Perkins 63
    Casey Fien 67
     
    Great:
    Nobody
     
    Above Avg.:
    Jared Burton 91
    Caleb Thielbar 91
    Ricky Nolasco 93*
    Michael Tonkin 94
     
    Average:
    Anthony Swarzak 97
    Brian Duensing 97
    (Shairon Martis 105)
     
    Below Avg.:
    Mike Pelfrey 109
    (Liam Hendriks 110)
    Ryan Pressly 111
    (Cole DeVries 114)
    (Andrew Albers 115)
     
    Bad:
    Kevin Correia 116
    Samuel Deduno 116
    (Josh Roenicke 118)
    (P.J. Walters 122)
    (Vance Worley 124)
    Kyle Gibson 125
    (Scott Diamond 129)
     
    Awful:
    Nobody
     
    This is some really interesting data. Here is what I see:

    I think that I either underestimated the Twins' Front Office use of metrics in personnel decisions building the team or Jack Goin should buy me a beer next week at Hammond Stadium, because this tool really describes what the Twins are doing regarding personnel decisions: The tend to get rid of below average and below pitchers and add average and above pitchers. Hughes was around 100, but I did not add him here. This is a stop the presses type of statement, me coming close to shake my head in approval of what the front office is doing...
    This tells a tale of 2 cities: All the Average and above pitchers were relievers. All starters were bellow average or worse but not awful. And Pelfrey was the best.
    Enough with 2013. What happened in 2014, comparatively to 2013? Every single reliever from Perkins down regressed, while the starters (save hurt Pelfrey and replacement level Correia) improved. This is fundamentally interesting, because it kinds of breaks some old school axioms. And the one excuse for the decline of the Twins' pen in 2014 was that, they were worse because they were too tired because the rotation was so bad. This data, turns this upside down: The Twins 2013 rotation was worse than the Twins 2014 rotation, and the 2014 Twins' pen made the 2014 Twins rotation worse. So a bad pen can make a rotation worse. Like a reliever coming in with 2 outs and the bases loaded to give a grand slam and 4 runs to the starter. What a concept...

    I am starting to really like this metric... So (and this is really hard for me to say) the Front Office did some improvements for 2014, that actually seem to be supported by real data, but the pitching tanked compared to 2013. Why?
     
    I'd love to hear your theories after this, and this is what I am thinking:

    Look at that 2014 list up there. In your mind, normalize it for playing time. That would shift the buckets heavier to the below average. How many games did Pino or May start compared to Pelfrey, Correia, Deduno? Why was Burton used in high leverage situations over better relievers? Yes. Do the same normalization for playing time for the 2013 data. And you are looking at evidence of what has been written here loudly and clear about mismanagement of the Twins' pitching staff by Gardy and Andy for ages.
    This has to be part of the reason cause for the pen decline in 2014, and the root causes are described within there. And they have to be fixed. And, yes, metrics can be devised to normalize and approximate defense independent pitching, but I have not yet seen one that could estimate the madness of the Twins' 2014 OF (what is the range factor of a bucket?)

     
    This actually makes me more hopeful, because it seems like the Twins are doing an effort to address some things. So, what do you say?
     

  18. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----In the first part of this series, I discussed why the Twins should focus only on improving 3 things, and if they do so, they will be competitive. I also spoke in length about the first of those things, fixing the bullpen. Today, in the second part, I will be discussing the outfield.
     
    The outfield situation was, using one word, horrid in 2014. And this is nothing new. I looked at the outfield defense performance at length, while the ashes of the Twins' season were still hot. You can find that analysis here. This statement from that writeup summarizes the Twins' outfield defensive performance in 2014:
     
    [The 2014 Twins outfield sum of] plus/minuses is 57. Which means that the Twins' outfield gave up 57 more runs than an average outfield. In 2014 the Twins scored 715 runs and gave up 777 for a 62 run differential. If they had an average outfield, that differential projects at -5, which projects to an 80-82 record, which, albeit not competitive, is respectable.
     
    In the bullpen segment I indicated that the Twins' bullpen was 27th in the majors in ground ball percentage. The overall pitching (including the rotation) was also 27th in the majors in this metric. This had a compound effect: The pitching resulted in a lot of balls on the air, and the defenders who were supposed to catch those balls could not. And this is an issue; how large of an issue? According to the above calculations, it was a 10 win issue. That plus/minus was by far the worst in the majors outfield defense. The second worst outfield, according to that metric, was the Indians' with -43. It is pretty interesting that other than the Royals who led the majors in plus/minus with +37, the rest of AL Central (Tigers at -22 and White Sox at -21) was also at the wrong side of zero.
     
    This was a very obvious problem and needed addressing this off-season. What did the Twins' do in the off-season to address this?
     
    a. They replaced traded and subsequent retired Josh Willingham (-8 UZR/150; need to use normalized rate metrics for comparison here because of the discrepancies in the number of chances, thus the UZR/150) with Torii Hunter (-20.1 UZR/150 in 2014; but -5.1 UZR/150 in 2013 and +14.0 UZR/150 in 2012; don't go home yet, I have a theory about this.)
     
    b. They have Oswaldo Arcia switch from Right to Left
     
    c. They have Jordan Schafer (1.2 UZR/150 OF,) from the begining of the season.
     
    d. They brought in 30 year old Shane Robinson (10.6 UZR/150 OF) who is a defensive wizard and can play all 3 positions
     
    e. they hope that Aaron Hicks (-8.2 UZR/150; yes UZR does not like Hicks) will win the centerfield job;
     
    and last but not least
     
    f. they pinky swore that they will not play catchers, DHs and shortstops at the outfield (maybe they should play Nunez on occasion, he is a pretty good left fielder.) Presumably the aforementioned 5 outfielders will take those innings.
     
    How will that work? On paper, this is pretty much the same outfield that was the most awful outfield in the majors. In reality, the last point (f, i.e no Kubel, Bartlett, Colabello, Parmelee et al), has the potential to make this outfield about 29 runs better than it was in plus/minus (that's approaching Tigers & White Sox territory.) And it could potentially be better. The starting Twins' OF looks like Arcia at Left, Hicks and/or Schafer at Center and Hunter at Right. For this, let's assume that Hicks will win the CF position and Schafer will play in all 3 spots.
     
    Allegedly, according to the Twins General Manager Terry Ryan, Arcia had problems with the RF overhang at Target Field that caused his fielding problems. Terry Ryan suggests that Arcia "was a pretty good minor league outfielder". From what I have seen, Arcia has been an average corner outfielder (Ryan's suggestion, btw, in that linked piece that Arcia was "a pretty good center fielder" is pretty inaccurate, esp. as far as range is concerned.) Most fielding measures, have Arcia being a better Left Fielder than Right Fielder (and some of them, like Total Zone Fielding Runs Saved Above Average (Rtot), have him as a slightly above average Left Fielder. Plus, he is young and has the potential to improve. In 2014 the Twins as a team used eleven different Left Fielders (none of them Named Oswaldo or Arcia) who accounted to -4 Rtot for the season. Arcia's Left Field performance in 2013 projects to +5 Rtot/year; so this is a 9 run differential. If Hicks (51 Rtot/yr at LF; small sample size 22 Innings) or Schafer (career 13 Rtot/yr, 2014 21 Rtot/yr at LF) or Shane Robinson (career 5 Rtot/yr at LF) play 25% of the games there and Arcia 75%, we are looking more at a 12 run differential in the position from 2014.
     
    In 2014 the Twins used seven different Center fielders who accounted for -9 Rtot for the season. Hick's performance on CF in 2013 was 3 Rtot/yr, then went downhill in 2014 for a career of +1 Rtot/yr. In 2014 Schafer had a +1 Rtot/yr as a Center Fielder in a smaller sample size between Atlanta and Minnesota. Assuming that Hicks will start and Schafer will be the back up, I think that it is safe to say that we are looking at a baseline of around 1 or a 10 run differential at Center Field, which is just a baseline, because with Hicks getting consistent play and back to 2013 levels, it could be close to 13-15 runs.
     
    The Twins used ten different Right Fielders in 2014 who accounted for a whopping -17 Rtot for the season, which was in par with Torii Hunter's -18 Rtot/yr for 2014. Do you remember that point in the listing above under a., regarding Torii Hunter's exponential UZR/150 drop the past 3 seasons? It is the same for his Rtot/yr: It dropped for +4 in 2012 to -5 in 2013 to -18 in 2014. And by looking at film of Torii's outfield adventures with Detroit, I think that it is potentially fixable. Most of his issues were from taking bad routes to balls, misjudging balls, missing balls and the like, indicating that he had a hard time getting a good look and a good jump and positioning. Torii Hunter is the oldest fielder in the majors. I am pretty sure that I saw Torii Hunter wearing eyeglasses in an interview with MLB Network when with the Angels regarding the Pujols' signing. So, one plus one means that he needs to see an ophthalmologist, which might had happened during the off-season. I also hope that he will take a lot of fly balls out there, as well. If Hunter's fielding returns to his (below average) 2013 levels of -5 Rtot/yr, we are looking at a 12 run differential at Right Field. Right Field is Jordan Schafer's best position with 22 Rtot/yr. So assuming Schafer as a late inning replacement or starting 20% of the games there, a 14 run differential at Right Field is realistic.
     
    So, the total differential is about 36 runs, or 6 wins better than 2014, using this calculation. This still projects a below average outfield (basically because of Hunter at RF,) just not an outfield as horrible as 2014. Thus the 36 run differential vs the 57 for an average with that calculation. Can the outfield get even closer to average?
     
    Another note about 2014: I believe that part of the bad performance at the outfield was the on the manager. 11 LFs + 7 CFs + 10 RFs (14 different individual players in total) adds to exponential combinations and an outfield needs to play together to gel. The most games a player started in any OF position was Arcia at RF with 97 at Center Field Santana (62) and at Left Field Willingham (52) led in starts. You cannot build consistency this way. This matter cannot be calculated, but will definitely add to the sum total of the fielding performance of the 2015 outfield. The musical chairs need to stop and have four to five rear ends landing on them and not fourteen. That was begging for trouble and trouble was what the Twins' got with their OF defense in 2014. A consistent outfield will improve the individual performances and will be the only way that the Twins' OF defense will get close to league average...
     
     

  19. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    At first read, the title of this series sounds very much like A Midsummer Night's Dream: Do I dare suggest that the team that went from 99 to 96 to 96 to 92 losses the past five seasons needs to do only three things to compete? The next number to that Arithmetic Progression up there is between 88 and 92 and that is not competing by any means. Let me explain my train of thought here before the nice kind people in white come and get me to warmer climates: First: In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective. Second: I do believe that with the changes this off-season, the Twins removed a huge barrier to their success: Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbrenner (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins.
     
    So that next number in that loss progression looks more between 83 and 87. So those three things that need to be done, if done correctly and effectively, will be enough to give the Twins an extra 5-7 wins, putting that total loss range to 76-82 and that is not a losing record. The top number of that range (86-76) is close to a wild-card number and likely, if the Twins get there, they will compete for the title in a weakened and more balanced Division.
     
    The first thing they need to do to get there is to fix their bullpen. And I hope that they know that this was a huge problem in 2014; as a matter of fact a bigger problem than the rotation. I touched it a bit here, suggesting that they spend some more money and get another late inning reliever, even though this bird has flown already, there are similar possibilities, especially in a trade, outside the organization. But there are potentially intriguing possibilities inside the organization. Let's frame the problem first, and then let's look at what they have at hand, and explore potential solutions:
     
    The Problem:
     
    In 2014, the Twins' bullpen was bad; how bad? It ranked 29th in the majors in both xFIP (4.18) and SIERA (3.84). And those are numbers that are a. fielding independent so Gardy's Catchers at the Outfield are not factoring in, and b. reflect the actual talent of pitchers and not external parameters, thus really measuring how good the staff is in a vaccum (as much as one can have.) So why the Twins' pen was one better than the worst in the majors? Let's do some root cause analysis: Here are some other numbers for the pen, and their rank in the majors: K/9: 6.66 (30th), K% 17.3 (30th), SwStr% 9.2% (30th), GB%: 40.1 (27th), FBv: 91.5 (27th), Contact% 80.9 (1st). So, in other words, the Twins pen: Had the worst strikeout rate in the majors, the worst swing strike percentage in the majors, the third from the bottom ground ball rate in the majors, the third from the bottom fastball velocity in the majors and the most contact rate in the majors. However, it could had been worse: The Twins' pen ranked 15th in BABIP (so they were not particularly unlucky) and 23rd in HR/FB. So in simple terms, the 2014 Twins' pen:

    Could not induce swings and misses or strikeouts
    Put the ball in play more than any other pen
    And the put the ball in play with the third worst velocity in the majors
    When the ball was in play was the least on the ground than all but 3 other teams
    Thankfully, they were lucky enough that their fly balls translated to home runs in a rate less than league average and batted balls (other than home runs) were hits at a league average rate.

    What they have at hand:
     
    To see what they have at hand, let's create an imaginary construct called the league average reliever. So here are the numbers (and I am focusing on the Twins' weaknesses here) of the league average reliever: xFIP: 3.67, SIERA: 3.34 (those 2 are pretty much equivalent, they correlate with 92% coefficient, so I will be focusing on SIERA only for simplicities' sake), K%: 22.2, Fastball velocity (FBv): 92.5, Swinging Strike% (SwStr%) : 10.5.
     
    Here are how the current Twins' bullpen candidates (and "locks") performed in those categories in 2014. If they are equal or better than the average major league pitcher, that number is in bold. For players mostly in the minors, I am including their K% in the minors (in parenthesis). The other numbers are not available.
     
     
     
    Pitcher SIERA K% SwStr% Fbv
    LHP
    Glen Perkins 2.62 25.4 11.2 93.4
    Brian Duensing 4.29 14.4 8.6 91.1
    Logan Darnell 3.55 19.6 (18.1) 9.9 89.8
    Aaron Thompson 3.8 19.4 (22.5) 10.8 89.1
    Caleb Thielbar 4.06 17 6.2 89.1
    Tommy Milone 4.57 14.5 7.3 86.6
    Ryan O'Rourke NA (28.7)
    RHP
    Lester Oliveros 4.62 18.5 (35.4) 9.8 93.7
    Ryan Pressly 4.18 11.5 (24.6) 8.3 93.3
    Blaine Boyer 3.45 18.1 (23.5) 9.8 93
    Michael Tonkin 3.56 18.4 (24.2) 8.4 92.8
    Casey Fien 3.43 19.6 10.4 92.3
    Trevor May 4.2 20.7 (23.5) 9.4 91.9 (*)
    Stephen Pryor 6.94 12.5 (27.2) 5.7 91.7 (*)
    Tim Stauffer 3.09 24.5 10.9 91.1
    A.J. Achter 5.11 10.2 (24.6) 8.3 90.2
    J.R. Graham NA (15.7)
    Mark Hamburger NA (16)
     
     
    So, in other words, the Twins now have only 2 pitchers who were above the proverbial average pitcher in 2014: Glen Perkins and Tim Stauffer. In a seven men bullpen, this is not very encouraging. For the time being, let's pen in Perkins and Stauffer and look for 5 more names, at least one of whom has to be a lefty. I assume that starting pitching prospects like Alex Meyer, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey & Jason Wheeler, will be in AAA if they do not make the rotation, so these 5 are out of this discussion.
     
    One wild-card is Mike Pelfrey. I believe that he has the stuff to make an excellent late inning reliever, and make the jump the Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan did before. However, Pelfrey has been a better starter than either Perkins or Nathan, so his ceiling as a late innings reliever is higher than both. Pelfrey has pitched on 2 games in relief (for the Mets in 2007) thus if that transition happens, it should happen as soon as possible, to be able to pitch in consecutive days when the season starts. Why do I think he can be a good late innings reliever? His fastball is explosive when healthy and is his primary weapon. As a starter, he has to mix his pitches. As a reliever, his 92.5 mph fastball, can easily gain 3-4 more miles an hour. His curve ball is a good complimentary offering and he would have the luxury to drop his non-successful slider and cutter and just occasionally mix his less than stellar split finger change. This makes 3.
     
    As far as righties go, the Twins will likely take Casey Fien up north (and hopefully not use him in high leverage situations, because he is below average in all of the above categories, and he is one of the major drivers of the low GB%, since his is only 32.1.) Fien would not be my choice. I would rather see what Trevor May can do as a reliever. Similar discussion with Pelfrey, his 91.9 mph FB average will get to the mid 90s as a reliever, plus he had the second best K% of the group in the majors and a respectable SwStr% (mostly as a starter, and will get better as a reliever.) And the cherry on top is that we led the 2014 Twins' pen with 2 Ground Balls per Fly Ball and a 57.1% GB%. May projects as an above average reliever. This makes 4.
     
    Need a lefty, and from that group, I'd go with Brian Duensing, and not because he is the most veteran. Brian Duensing (like Glen Perkins) regressed a bit in 2014, mainly losing about 1 mph velocity in his fastball and losing effectiveness in his slider. That translated to a K% drop from 20.9% to 14.4% and a SwStr% drop from 10.5% to 8.6%. That said, he had the highest GB% from all lefties in the Twins' pen (45.7%) and has by far the highest velocity from the lefties left in the list. As far as offerings go, I think that Duensing has too many pitches. Losing either the slider or the curve (both have been inconsistent) and focusing on one, plus regaining his 2013 form (which was at or above the average pitcher's) will do wonders for the Twins. I hope that the new pitching coach will help in these regards.
     
    This makes 5 which leaves a lot of candidates for 2 spots. I think that the Twins will need someone who can fulfill the Anthony Swarzak role, but all of the above have been starting pitchers and there is flexibility, which means that if (e.g.) Tommy Milone loses out for the fifth starter job, he does not have to be the long man in the Twins' pen. Having a long man by committee, might actually be an interesting approach. The most intriguing names above for me for the last 2 spots are Aaron Thomson, Stephen Pryor, J.R. Graham, Ryan Pressly and Blaine Boyer. Pryor use to throw fastballs in the high 90s (career average 96.4) but velocity slipped due to injuries last season. Very similar situation with the rule 5 pick, J.R. Graham and their former rule 5 pick Ryan Pressly. Blaine Boyer is the veteran in the group, with good track record and might make the team. As far as another lefty, Thomson is ahead of Thielbar (who in addition to be below average in every respect, has a 31.8% GB%) in my book.
     
    Should the Twins go out and target a "known quantity" like Jonathan Papelbon (2.86 SIERA, 24.3 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 91.2 mph, 41.9 GB%) in a trade? I think that it will definitely help, but putting Pelfrey and May in the pen might work equally well. I think that the bones are there. Perkins and Duensing should rebound from regressive seasons, Stauffer was a good acquisition, if you break down the numbers, and they will find 2-3 more relievers. But they have to take the best 7 up north, which means that they might have to make tough choices regarding below average extreme fly ball pitchers like Fien and Thielbar, even though there might be the belief that they are still under scholarship.
     

  20. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    I have been counting down the Twins top 40 prospects with descriptions and scouting reports of the players, their potential, their likely destinations for 2015, and in some cases the reasons why they were ranked where they were. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Here are the detailed rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 , 16-20 , 11-15 , 6-10 and 1-5. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here.
     
    First of all the following players graduated: Graduated: Trevor May (4), Kennys Vargas (5), AJ Achter (25)
     
    and these, ranked in the mid-season list, did not make this list: Nico Goodrum IF (22), Matthew Koch C (28), Zach Jones RHP (31), Sean Gilmartin LHP (32); and not only because he is not part of the organization any longer, Brian Gilbert RHP (33), Argenis Silva RHP (34), Sam Clay LHP (35), DJ Baxendale (37).
     
    Here are my top 40 Twins' Prospects for 2014, in one single post:
     
    1. Miguel Sano 3B (1)
    2. Jorge Polanco SS (6)
    3. Byron Buxton OF (2)
    4. Alex Meyer RHP (3)
    5. Jose Berrios RHP (9)
     
    6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF (11)
    7. Kohl Stewart RHP (7)
    8. Eddie Rosario OF (10)
    9. Lewin Diaz 1B (24)
    10. Nick Burdi RHP (14)
     
    11. Lewis Thorpe LHP (15)
    12 Nick Gordon SS (8)
    13. Stephen Gonsalves LHP (20)
    14. Travis Harrison OF/3B (16)
    15. Max Kepler OF/1B (12)
     
    16. Jake Reed RHP (--)
    17. Mitch Garver C (17)
    18. Chih-Wei Hu RHP (--)
    19. Jorge Fernandez C (--)
    20. Engelb Vielma ss (21)
     
    21. Adam Walker OF (13)
    22. Levi Michael 2B (38)
    23. Mike Cederoth RHP (18)
    24. Rainis Silva C (--)
    25. Alexis Tapia RHP (30)
     
    26. Max Murphy OF (--)
    27. Brandon Peterson RHP (36)
    28. Stuart Turner C (--)
    29. Felix Jorge RHP (23)
    30. Ryan Eades RHP (19)
     
    31. Aaron Slegers RHP (26)
    32. Jose Abreu RHP (27)
    33. Zach Larson OF (29)
    34. Todd Van Steensen RHP (--)
    35. Mat Batts LHP (--)
     
    36. Jermaine Palacios IF (--)
    37. Fernardo Romero RHP (39)
    38. Tyler Kuresa 1B (--)
    39. Moises Gomez RHP (--)
    40. Luis Arraez IF (--)
     
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  21. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    oday is the eight and last installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown (other than the overall summary that is coming up next). You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 , 16-20 , 11-15 and 6-10. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. Every Twins' fans should know those names, so I am really going emphasize discussion of the rankings here:
     
     
    5. Jose Berrios RHP (9) RHSP, DOB: 5/27/1994, 6'1", 185 lbs
     
    Jose Berrios was drafted by the Twins in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft from Papa Juan (PR) High School. Since he was drafted by the Twins, he had to face criticism about his height, which he answered by being a maniac worker, improving his arsenal every single season and knocking in the door of the majors just 3 seasons after he was drafted. Berrios has a plus fastball that sits at 93-94 and can get up to 96-97, an above average change and a plus curve ball. He reached Rochester for one start, but likely will begin his 2015 season anchoring the Chattanooga rotation
     
    4. Alex Meyer RHP (3) RHSP, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs.
     
    Meyer was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB draft by the Washington Nationals out of the University of Kentucky and traded to the Twins in 2012 for Denard Span. Meyer is the best pure pitcher in the Twins' organization stuff-wise. His repertoire includes 4 pitches: a plus plus fastball that averages 94-96 and hits 98-100, a plus to plus plus hard slider at high 80s with a sharp break a slow curve that sits in the low 70s and he learned a low 80s change up recently, which he used last season. If you do the math, this is 30 mph differential. He still needs to command his stuff, but think of a RH Randy Johnson, with a slow curve and a change up, as far as stuff goes. The only things he needs to do, it to challenge batters and keep healthy. Definite ace potential here.
     
    3. Byron Buxton OF (2) RHB, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 190 lbs
     
    This and the next ranking will be the major controversies here. I have been ranking Buxton second to Sano, but right now I feel that another Twins' prospect has surpassed him. I am not counting Meyer's, Buxton's, and Sano's injuries against them in these rankings. My question about Buxton is not whether he is injury prone (which is a fair question because his injuries, unlike the ones for Sano and Meyer that were the product of repetitive use, were on the field of play in plays like sliding head first while nursing a wrist and diving into a teammate's knee head first.) For me the question is not whether Buxton can be the next Rickey Henderson or the next Bo Jackson. For me the question is whether he can be the next Rickey Henderson, the next Vince Coleman or the next Otis Nixon. And unless he dominates with the bat above the Midwest League level, which he hasn't done in at least 3 chances, he might be more like Vince Coleman than Rickey Henderson, and unless he can hit the league average above the Midwest League level, he will be more like Otis Nixon. After last season he hit .212/.281/.404 in 57 PAs in the Arizona Fall League. This season he hit .240/.313/.405 in 134 PAs at Fort Myers (I am discounted his single unfortunate game in New Britain) and capped it with hitting .263/.311/.298 in 61 PAs in the AFL. Sorry, folks, this is not the best prospect for the Twins (and you can read my reasoning from last year regarding the Sano/Buxton comparison here,) which takes us to probably what most people would think of as the biggest surprise in this ranking:
     
     
    2. Jorge Polanco SS (6) SH, SS, DOB: 7/5/1993, 5'11", 165 lbs.
     
    Polanco was added to the Twins' 40-man roster last offseason to be protected from the rule 5 draft, and had a cup of coffee (mostly warming the bench while getting 8 PA) when the Twins needed someone because of injuries this season. Unlike the other prospects who saw MLB time, I don't consider him graduating this status, because he just was practically sitting on the bench. So why Polanco 2 and Buxton 3, other than the fact that I might be crazy? Simple. They are the same age, Polanco has outhit Buxton in the higher levels and Polanco's glove is close to becoming elite. Last thing first: For some reason, there is a tale that Polanco's glove is not good enough to be a shortstop and he is better fit to be a second baseman, that has been propagated like the one about the guy with the bathtub and ice and kidneys. Not sure where that came from, but let's look at one number: Do you remember when I talked about Vielma's glove here and said the following?
     
    How good is Vielma with the glove? I will let the numbers speak for themselves and the number I would like to use as a criterion of a good SS is the percentage of Put Outs that were double plays. Omar Visquel, the perennial AL gold glove winner, had a 40% of his Put Outs being double plays, in average of his gold glove years 1994-2001. Last season for Vielma 39.6% of Put Outs were Double Plays. In other words, four out of ten outs were in double plays. I know that defensive metrics like RZR, RangeF, UZR etc are not believable by some people, because it involves a lot of math, but % POs that were double plays, is a very tangible concept. For comparison's purpose, here are these numbers for the 2014 Twins with more than 50 POs: Escobar 49/130, 37.7% and Santana 15/53, 28.3% - (Santana's MiLB career numbers are 209/622, 33.6%)
     
    Here are Polanco's Put Outs that were Double Plays this season: 63/120 at Fort Myers (52.5%,) 18/29 (62.1%) at New Britain and 3/3 100% with the Twins. I hope that this, along with Twins' fans witnessing his soft hands in the majors this year, seals that myth for ever.
     
    This season Polanco hit .291/.364/.415 at Fort Myers in 432 PAs and .281/.323/.342 at New Britain in 157 PAs. You can check what Buxton did this season in the same levels. And I would argue that a good fielding shortstop who can hit is much more rare than a good fielding centerfielder who can hit. Buxton does have more speed. But he is more injury prone and he has not hit as well as Polanco at the same levels. That seals it for me...
     
    Polanco will likely start the season as the shortstop at Chatanooga, and will move up to the Twins at least by September.
     
    1. Miguel Sano 3B (1) RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'34", 235 lbs.
     
    Sano should be regarded the best prospect in the game. Period. Rationalization here and not much more needed to even discuss. His hitting will be back, his fielding has been improving. Likely will start as the Red Wings' third baseman, with an outside possibility of making the Twins during Spring Training.
     
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  22. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
    (this is an edit to clarify a few points that were confusing previously)
     
    Recently when I was looking for an objective way to numerically describe how good Engelb Vielma's glove for my Minnesota Twins' top 40 prospect list, which is fairly easily understood as a concept, I came up with a simple metric: The percentage of putouts that resulted in a double play. I did a bit of research to see whether it will pass the stink test, and looked at Omar Visquel's (who is indisputably a good glove shortstop and pretty recent) gold glove seasons (1994-2001). Visquel percentage of putouts that were double plays was 40%, so I concluded that Vielma's 39.6 was indeed encouraging. Furthermore I used this metric (as supportive to what I have seen with my eyes this season) to suggest that Jose Polanco, whose 52.3% of Put Outs were Double Plays, despite the rumors, is a very good shortstop with the glove. This resulted in a major upset on the top 10 of my Twins' prospect list, and a hearty discussion of the metric, among other things, here.
     
    Conceptually it is very simple metric: An effective shortstop will turn as many outs as possible when he has a chance. It is affected by many things like range and arm, but it is not perfect. It misses the number of chances for double play as a normalization, and something to describe how the shortstop was with the glove when there were no putouts. So I did three things :
     
    a. When I first thought of this, I thought that putouts were the way to go, because for some reason helped tell more for a shortstop than assists. After a bit of discussion and noodling, this is not really valid. I was wrong to use putouts for the denomination. I think that Total Chances are a better denominator, so that is it. Instead of percent of Put Outs that were Double Plays, I am using percent of Chances that resulted in Double Plays (%CDP)
     
    b. To add something in the measurement that describes a shortstop in a non-double play situation, I went back to an old (and tired) friend and gave it new life my marrying it with %CDP: Good old Fielding Percentage, which by itself is inadequate to whole describe fielding, but a very simple conceptual metric: Errors over chances. So this compound measurement is simply: The percent of Chances that resulted in Double Plays multiplied by Fielding Percentage. Because that is a mouthful, I am calling it Shortstop Fielding Effectiveness (SSFE, and the name is similar to the other metric I device to simply evaluate pitching, the Pitching Effectiveness.)
     
    c. To normalize for the chances of double play (i.e. how many of total chances were with a man on base,) I normalized against the league for a full season, assuming that the chances for a double play are pretty much the same for all teams in the course of 2280 games (152 times 15) and a league normalization, would be good enough. So I calculated the average SSFE (which was 13.5) and divided each player's with that average, resulting to a normalized value, which I call nSSFE. nSSFE of 1 is average, everything above 1 is above average and everything below 1 is below average. To make it look numerically a bit more familiar (think ERA+ and OPS+,) I multiplied by 100 (making the average 100, like those other 2 metrics) creating what I call nSSFE+ (still a mouthful). 139 players played Shortstop in the bigs in 2014 contributing to those numbers.
     
    Does it pass the stink test?
     
    Here is the nSSFE+ are all MLB shortstops in 2014 with more that 200 innings at shortstop. In blue are the above average shortstops (nSSFE+ 110 or more) and in red are the below average (nSSFE+ 90 or less.) Since this is a Twins-focused blog, the Twins' players are in bold.
     
     

     
    I think that it does pass the stink test if you look who is in the blue categories (JJ Hardy, S. Drew, et al) and who is in the red (Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins et al.)
     
    Is it a perfect metric? No; because there is no such a thing. But I think that it is easily understood as a concept and can be valuable. And it is better than the "eye" alone. The two together may be awesome. Could it be translated to other positions? I will try to play around, but feel free to play and tell me I will eventually look to see how the average moves with history, and potentially refine it, but this is the first attempt...
  23. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today is the seventh installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, and the descriptions of the player and rationalization of their rankings continue to a bit more detailed. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 , 16-20 and 11-15. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. Before I start counting down the top 10, I need to mention the names of the players who dropped from the mid-season top 10 (along with their rankings in that list in parenthesis) : Nico Goodrum IF (22), Matthew Koch C (28), Zach Jones RHP (31), Sean Gilmartin LHP (32); and not only because he is not part of the organization any longer, Brian Gilbert RHP (33), Argenis Silva RHP (34), Sam Clay LHP (35), DJ Baxendale (37). Now that we established that Nico Goodrum is not one of the top 10, here are the prospects 10 to 6, with a couple of surprises:
     
     
     
    10. Nick Burdi RHP (14) RHRP, DOB: 1/19/1993, 6'5", 215 lbs.
     
    Nick Burdi was the Twins' 2nd round draft pick in 2014 from Louisville. This was what Nick Burdi did in relief in 2014: Louisville: 37 IP, 65 K, 10 BB; Cedar Rapids: 13 IP, 26 K, 8 BB; Fort Myers: 7.3 IP, 12 K, 2 BB. Total: 57.3 IP, 103 K, 20 BB. His K% was 43.6% in College, 48.2% at Cedar Rapids and 42.9% at Fort Myers. A high 90s nasty fastball that often reaches triple digits, complemented by a low 90s even nastier slider, and there is no wonder than many, including the author of this, were wondering why Burdi did not start his pro career in the majors, since he is the best RHRP in the Twins organization at any level, since he was drafted. But this is not the way the Twins are thinking. The 22 year old had nothing to prove in a league whose average age was 2 years + older. He will likely have nothing to prove in Chattanooga and be called to the majors by mid-season to serve as the Twins' set up man or even the closer. He is not on the 40 man roster and has not been invited to the MLB Spring Training camp as of yet.
     
    9. Lewin Diaz 1B (24) LHB, DOB: 11/19/1996, 6'3, 180 lbs.
     
    Lewin Diaz is an unknown name among most Twins' fans, but it will not be so for long. He was signed as a 16 year old in 2013 from the Dominican Republic for a $1.4 million bonus. 2014 was his Pro debut in the DSL where he hit .257/.385/.451 with 5 HRs and 24:26 K:BB in 174 PA as a 17 year old. He was about 1.5 years younger than the league average and hit well in a pitcher's league where the average slash line is .245/.339/.331. Five HRs might not seem like much, but Diaz hit all but 2 of the DSL HRs and had the same or more HRs than 3 of the Leagues' teams. His is stronger (and bigger) as a 17 year old than both Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas at that age. His glove is a work in progress at 17 and will likely end up at first base. Will likely move to the GCL in 2015, where he will make his presence known to most of the Twins fans. Here is a picture of Diaz from 2013 with David Ortiz, when Diaz was on the Dominican elite travel team (and Diaz was just 16 years old) to get an idea about the size of this kid:
     
    http://dplbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-DPL-Elite-Travel-Team-tour-Ortid-Diaz-700x463.jpg
     
    8. Eddie Rosario OF (10)
     
    Eddie Rosario was the Twins' 4th round pick of the 2010 MLB draft from teh Rafael Lopez Landron High School in Puerto Rico. Rosario has been a top Twins prospect since he hit .337/.397/.670 with 21 HRs in 298 in Elizabethton as a 19 year old (1.5 years younger than League Average) in 2011. In 2012 he hit .296/.345/.490 in Beloit where he suffered a broken jaw as result of being hit by a pitch, and in 2013 he hit .329/.377/.527 in Fort Myers and .284/.330/.412 at New Britain. Baseball Prospectus twice named him top 100 prospect (#87 in 2012 and #60 in 2014). Last season was a trying season for Rosario. Suspended for 50 games for street drug use, changing position from 2B to full time OF, he never found his swing. He hit just .237/.277/.396 at New Britain and .300/.382/.300 in 8 games at Fort Myers, where he started the season.
     
    So why is Rosario ranked so high, if he apparently has contact problems at AA? It is because of his past and his potential (for pretty much the same reason that Sano and Buxton are still top prospects, even though they had worse seasons that Rosario in 2014) and because of what he did in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .330/.362/.410 with 10 SB in 105 PAs (his highest SB/PA rate ever.) I take it as a clue that the 23 year old has put his bad couple seasons behind him and he is on his way of realizing his potential. I'd like to see more doubles as well, but he is getting there. He is on the Twins' 40 man roster, and unless something bad happens, he will be called for a cup of coffee in September, maybe sooner depending on his performance and the MLB team's needs. His stock as a prospect dropped when he moved to the outfield from second base, but still Rosario would had been a top 5 prospect in most organizations out there. Will likely start 2015 as the starting Centerfielder for the Red Wings (the assumption is that Buxton will have that position for the Lookouts,) unless he gains a major league job out of Spring Training.
     
    7. Kohl Stewart RHP (7) RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.
     
    Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School. Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. Last season was not Stewards best, when he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. There he started 19 games and looks like he was bitten by the pitch-to-contact bug of the Twins' organization. His K% dropped from 23.2% in the GCL (which is not great for someone with his stuff to begin with) to a mere 17.2%, putting his K rate to the Blackburner. His 2.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP might look encouraging before someone takes a look at his 3.73 FIP and .270 BABIP. Still Stewart was a full 3 years too young for the league at 19 and has been battling shoulder issues pretty much the whole season.
     
    Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well: A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s to low 80s curveball and a very good mid 80s changeup. In August his fastball was barely hitting 90, which is an indication of injury. He is still young, he has a lot of potential as long as the shoulder is strong. If that happens and if he can start to miss bats, he could be a top of the rotation pitcher. Right now, he is the third best RHSP prospect in the Twins' organization.
     
    6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF (11) SHB, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs
     
    Amaurys Minier might be slighted by this ranking (and it is the highest I have seen him ranked in any of these lists.) He was signed by the Twins as a 16-year amateur free agent ($1.4 million bonus) out of the Dominican Republic on July 2, 2012. In his first pro season in 2013 at the GCL he hit .214/.252/.455 (which other than the power numbers, is pretty bad) and then, he had shoulder surgery in the off-season for batter's shoulder. Recipe for disaster. Everyone thought that it will be a lost season. But what did Minier do? He played a full season in the same GCL as an 18-year old (2 years younger than the league average) and hit a mere .292/.405/.520 with a 29:52 BB:K ratio in 205 PAs. To put this into perspective: Minier had shoulder surgery, is 3 months younger than Nick Gordon (the Twins' 12th prospect), who in most lists is a top Twins' prospect, and out hit him in any possible way in the same team (Gordon's numbers: .294/.333/.366, 11:45 BB:SO, 256 PA.) If you have 2 players the same age, one coming from a surgery and outhitting the other by that much in the same team, there is no way to justify not ranking them in this order. Or is there?
    The one issue with Minier is his glove. He was signed as a SS (a position he never played professionally and likely will never play,) played an awful third base in 2013 and a better 1B and so-so LF in 2014. A lot of people think that Minier might have the most power in the Twins' organization (and this includes his compatriots Sano and Diaz and the MLB stars in making Vargas and Arcia; Sano's GCL slash line was .291/.338/.466, for comparison. With these 5 players mentioned, the Twins might have locked the corner IF and OF and DH positions for a while. But this while will not start as soon as for the others, for Minier and Diaz. Definitely exciting to see how these young powerful guys develop for the Twins.
     
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  24. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Today is the sixth installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, and the descriptions of the player and rationalization of their rankings continue to a bit more detailed. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 and 16-20. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. This list has 3 prospects that were not featured in my top 40 lists before:
     
    15. Max Kepler OF/1B (12) LHB, DOB: 2/10/1993, 6'4", 205 lbs
     
    Kepler does not need much introduction, since he has been a top prospect after was singed by the Twins as an amateur free agent from Germany in 2009 for an $800,000 bonus, the highest ever for a European baseball player. What was different this season than the rest was the addition of 25 lbs to his 6'4" frame as a 21 year old. He played the whole season at Fort Myers and played in 102 games (407 PAs) which were about twice as many as he previously did in a season. Furthermore, he played in an additional 18 games (72 PAs) in the Arizona Fall League. At Fort Myers he hit .264/.333/.393 and at AFL he improved to .307/.366/.440.
     
    Kepler has been touted as a five tool prospect since he signed with the Twins; however he has not quite reached his potential and there are some concerns in his game: He tends to be neutralized by LHPs (.273/.301/.390 with 26:3 K:BB ratio in 80 PAs this season vs. .263/.344/.396 with 36:31 K:BB in 316 PAs against RHPs.) With the major difference is the strikeouts (33.8% against LHPs vs 12.6% against RHPs) and his walks. He has problems seeing the ball from LHPs and this might be a fatal flaw that could turn him into a platoon player. Overall his power has decreased as he developed, despite the muscle gain, his IsoP going from .241 in 2012 in Elizabethton, .186 in 2013 in Cedar Rapids (and .078 in the AFL) to .129 last season in Fort Myers and .133 in the AFL. Thirdly, he is a man with no position with a bat that does not play for a DH. In 2014 he started most of his games at CF, 61, a position he clearly does not have the range to handle (based, in addition to seeing him take bad jumps or being tentative and waiting for the corners to catch the ball, on 125 POs in these 61 games, compared to the 80 POs in 28 games that Buxton had in the same league.) He played 18 games at RF, 8 at LF and 12 at 1B, but the starters for the Miracle at those positions were Walker, Harrison and DJ Hicks. There might be a numbers game going against Kepler in the organization, with at least 4 corner OF and/or 1B prospects ahead of him in this list, and this does not count players already in the majors. Kepler will likely start in Chattanooga in 2015, and likely playing first base mostly, with the premise that the starting Chattanooga OF will be (L to R) Harrison, Buxton, Walker and DJ Hicks will be their full time DH. Kepler does have the potential, but he has to realize it soon. 2015 will be a critical year for him and his development, otherwise he could be a trading chip for the Twins, since he is occupying a valuable 40-man roster spot.
     
     
    14. Travis Harrison OF/3B (16) RHB, DOB: 10/17/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs.
     
    Travis Harrison was the second Twins 1st round pick (after Michael) in the 2011 draft from Tustin High School (CA.) Harrison is a lot like Max Kepler (and Adam Walker) in the respect that they have not yet realized their potential. Harrison, Kepler and Walker have been ranked 13th, 16th and 17th in the 2014 off-season list, 16th, 12th and 13th in the 2014 mid-season list and now are ranked 14th, 15th and 21st. For Harrison and Kepler (primarily, Walker is a year older,) it might just be age, because both of them have been one and a half year younger than league average. They do have time and cannot be considered yet as busts. This is what I wrote about Harrison in the 2014 off-season prospect list :
     
    Power has been touted as Harrison's best tool, and there have been flashes of it, and his IsoPs have been around .160, which is okay for a 20 year old in pro ball, but has to increase as he grows. Harrison has some trouble with breaking balls, especially of the in-the-dirt variety, and that is reflected by his consistent so far about a strikeout a game rate. He has to improve his pitch recognition and contact to go to the next level. Position-wise he has played almost exclusively at 3B (just a single game at LF finishing the game) but he will be squeezed from Sano ahead of him and potentially Minier behind him who are both better fielders. Moving across the diamond or at an OF might be an option, but he needs some reps at those spots soon, and first base might be spoken for for a while.
     
    Harrison took a step back in the power department in 2014 hitting .269/.361/.365 at Fort Myers compared to .253/.366/.416 at Cedar Rapids. Like Kepler he is tentative at LF (but it is his first full year in the position,) but unlike Kelper (and thus the ranking a step ahead) he does not have a fatal flaw against same side pitching. His 2014 splits against RHPs were .272/.359/.376 with 62:46 BB:K in 392 PAs and against LHP .255/.362/.327 with 24:17 K:BB in 127 PAs. Another thing that sets him slightly ahead of Kepler at this point is his durability, playing in 129 games in each of the past 2 seasons vs. Kepler's 102 in 2014 and 61 in 2013. Still, like Kepler, he has a lot of development to do. Will likely start 2015 as Chattanooga's starting leftfielder. Third base is not an option anymore; he made 7 errors in the 15 games he played there in 2014.
     
     
    13. Stephen Gonsalves LHP (20) LHSP, DOB: 7/8/1994, 6'5", 190 lbs.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves was drafted by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2013 draft from the Cathedral Catholic High School (CA). I think that I surprised everyone (including himself) by ranking him as the Twins' 10th best prospect and the best LHP in the 2014 off-season rankings based on him dominating both Rookie Leagues at an age 2.5 years younger than their average, with a 32.1% K% in the GCL and 38.1% K% in Elizabethton. However his ranking dropped to 20 overall in the 2014 mid-season list based on what I saw from him during Spring Training, which was being very tentative and lacking command. In 2014 he started 6 games in Elizabethton (29 IP, 26 K, 10 BB, 1.138 WHIP and 2.79 ERA) and was promoted to the Cedar Rapids rotation, where, at a full 3 years younger than the league, he started 8 games for 36.7 IP, struck out 44 and walked 11. His WHIP was 1.145 (with a .326 BABIP,) ERA 3.19 and FIP 2.50. His K% in the Midwest League was 29.8%.
     
    Gonsalves and Thorpe are very close in the race for the top Lefty prospect in the organization, but at this point the 19 year old Australian has a sight edge over the 20 year old Californian based on stuff and age. Gonsalves came in the organization with a high 80s low 90s fastball with good action, a mid 70s change up, which was his best pitch, a slow curve and a slider, both of which were works in progress. Now his fastball moved up a few ticks to low to mid 90s retaining the good downward movement, making it at least above average to plus, his changeup is fully plus and he dropped both breaking balls for a better slurvy sharp breaking curve, which still needs work. Very tall and lanky, he is the post boy of "projectibility". The command stil needs a bit of work, but he is young. Will likely repeat Cedar Rapids to start 2015, but he might be pushed to Fort Myers depending on the recovery from TJ surgery of other pitchers who would also need a home.
     
    12. Nick Gordon SS (8) LHB, DOB: 10/24/1995, 6'0", 160 lbs.
     
    The Twins drafted Nick Gordon in the first round of the 2014 draft (5th overall) from Olympia High School (FL). Mainly because he is the son of Flash Gordon and the brother of Dee Gordon (of Dodgers' and Marlins' fame and a career .272/.314/.345 MLB slashline and 86 OPS+,) he was propelled very high in all Twins' prospect rankings after the draft, all the way up to the 6th spot in the 2014 Baseball America list. (http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/) I would have to see more that his .294/.333/.366 line in Elizabethton (which, btw, was worse than his brother of 86 career OPS+ first pro slash line of .331/.371/.430) to think of him as a top 10 prospect in this organization. Also his 11:45 BB:K in 256 PAs is somewhat worrisome for a non-power hitter. Why 12th instead of 20th then? He does have a nice compact swing with doubles power and makes good contact. He does have good speed, but nothing close to his brother and he does have good hands and good range as an infielder. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point and want to see more to determine whether he is more like Levi Michael or like Byron Buxton. Also he was 2.2 years younger than the Appalachian League average.
     
    If shortstop does not work for Nick, he has a low to mid 90s fastball and a curveball allegedly close to wickedness to his father's, so that might be an option for the Twins down the road, if the bat does not work out. For 2015 I think that the Twins (unless they saw something to hold him for EST) will have him start as the starting SS in Cedar Rapids, where he will be around 3 years too young for the league. Time will tell whether Gordon becomes and elite prospect, but right now, in my opinion, he is not.
     
    11. Lewis Thorpe LHP (15) LHSP, DOB: 11/23/1995, 6'1", 160 lbs.
    Thorpe was signed on July of 2012 by the Twins to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player, $500,000. He played his first professional season in the GCL in 2013, pitching 44 innings, striking out 64 and walking just 6 for a 2.05 ERA (1.43 FIP) and 0.86 WHIP, despite a .319 BABIP His 38% K% and 10.7 K/BB were just phenomenal and (with the addition of about 5 mph to his fastball) propelled him really high on Twins' prospect lists, including 7th in the Twins 2014 list by Baseball America . Thorpe was ranked 18th best prospect a year ago in my list, then moved up 3 spots to number 15 mid-season and he is now up to 11. This might seem contradictory to his performance in Cedar Rapids this summer (71.2 IP, 80 K, 36 BB, 1.367 WHIP, 3.52 ERA, 4.24 FIP) until someone realizes that he was a full 4 years younger than the league average. In addion, he went to Cedar Rapids from EST, to fill in for the starting pitcher injuries there and was rushed. Furthermore, to UCL bug hit him as well and was diagnosed with a "strained UCL" that did not require surgery. I discussed a bit in the Gonsalves entry why Thorpe is my top ranked lefty prospect in the organization. I think that he young enough so, even if he requires surgery, it will not be a huge set back.
     
    Thorpe has four pitches: A plus fastball with a lot of lateral movement that sits at 92-95 mph, a plus changeup and a curve and slider, which both are works in progress. His elbow will dictate where Thorpe will start in 2015, but if all (including the temperature) checks out, he will likely return to Cedar Rapids' rotation.
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  25. Thrylos
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    Today is the fifth installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, getting into the top 20 so the descriptions of the player and their rankings are a bit more detailes. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 and 21-25. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. This list has 3 prospects that were not featured in my top 40 lists before:
     
     
    20. Engelb Vielma SS (21) SHB, DOB: 6/22/1994, 5'11", 155 lbs
     
    Vielma was signed by the Twins as a 17 year old International Free Agent from Venezuela. Before last season he played professional baseball for 2 seasons, starting in the DSL at 2012 and moving to the GCL and Elizabethton in 2013. Once he moved to the States, he captured the eye of the scouts with his ability on the field, with some of them proclaiming him a top 10 Twins' prospect. As usually, I do not buy into hype, unless I see someone play or results of play and his combined .234/.318/.253 in the Twins' Rookie League teams in 2013, left me enough lukewarm feeling about him to be included in my top 2014 off-season list. I had the opportunity to have a good look at Vielma last Spring Training and wrote the following :
     
    Engelb Vielma. This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization. He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy. Like it is an everyday kind of thing. Looks like his contact tool is getting better. He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm. And he has room to grow. I think that he will move into second in my SS rankings after 6th overall ranked Jorge Polanco.
     
    Indeed, he would have been second in my SS rankings in my 2014 mid-season list , had the Twins not drafted a SS on the first round of the 2014 draft. Vielma moved to Cedar Rapids this season and hit .266/.313/.323 in 112 games, while continuing his solid SS play. At first, that slash line seems a bit disappointing; however subtracting a record cold Midwest April when he hit .187/.247/.227, he hit .283/.326/.391 for the season, very respectable for a player who is a year and a half younger than the league. Furthermore, this included his .231/.268/.282 July when he was shaking out a concussion.
     
    How good is Vielma with the glove? I will let the numbers speak for themselves and the number I would like to use as a criterion of a good SS is the percentage of Put Outs that were double plays. Omar Visquel, the perennial AL gold glove winner, had a 40% of his Put Outs being double plays, in average of his gold glove years 1994-2001. Last season for Vielma 39.6% of Put Outs were Double Plays. In other words, four out of ten outs were in double plays. I know that defensive metrics like RZR, RangeF, UZR etc are not believable by some people, because it involves a lot of math, but % POs that were double plays, is a very tangible concept. For comparison's purpose, here are these numbers for the 2014 Twins with more than 50 POs: Escobar 49/130, 37.7% and Santana 15/53, 28.3% - (Santana's MiLB career numbers are 209/622, 33.6%). Vielma will likely begin 2015 in Fort Myers as a 22 year old. If he continues to improve with the bat, he will fly through the Twins' system, but do not expect any power numbers, other than doubles and triples from him.
     
     
    19. Jorge Fernandez C (--) SHB, DOB: 3/30/1994, 6'3", 188 lbs.
     
    Fernandez was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 7th round of the 2012 Draft from International Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico. In 2012 and 2013 seasons he played in the GCL, where he put lack luster numbers with the bat (.263/.288/.293 and .236/.276/.398 respectively) as a younger than the league player. In 2014 he moved up to Elizabethton at a league average age and had a breakthrough season hitting .321/.361/.440 to produce the second highest OPS for a Catcher in the Twins' organization (Hint: read on to find out who had the highest). Was that enought to propel him in the top 20 of the Twins' prospect rankings? No. Fernandez is an interesting prospect. He has very good approach and mechanics at the plate and as a switch hitter, he is lethal against RHP (.341/.367/.462 as a LHB vs .222/.333/.333 as a RHB.)
     
    The Twins might see him as a 1B/OF because of his tall, slender build, but he has made improvements as a Catcher and I think that he can stick at the position. Biggest problems right now with the glove are a. his ability to block passed balls, but this will come with time, and b. his ability to throw out runners, which I think it is more of a learning than arm strength issue and this is also something that he can develop into. I foresee at least Pinto-like numbers with the bat from the Left side, as he fills in, with a better glove than Pinto, as his catching insticts develop, as long as the Twins allow him to be a Catcher. That's the reason he is in my Twins' top 20 prospects list.
     
    18. Chih-Wei Hu RHP (--) RHSP, DOB: 11/4/1993, 6'1", 209 lbs.
     
    Chih-Wei Hu was singed from Taiwan by Twins for $220,000 in 2012. Last season he played for the Gulf League Twins, sometimes starting, sometimes relieving, pitching 36.7 innings, striking out 39 and walking 8. (0.982 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 1.99 FIP.) As a young pitcher in Taiwan he had the opportunity to represent his country in International Tournaments and was more polished that hitters his age who were touching wooden bats for the firs time, so, even though impressive, his 2013 numbers had a huge grain of salt attached them. However his season he started in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids and both his numbers and stuff improved. He always had 4 pitches: Fastball (low 90s), Curve and 2 changes (one a slow palmball).
     
    This season, his fastball improved both in velocity (up to mid 90s) and movement and has been commanding his off-speed stuff better. In 71 IP between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, the 20 year old had 64 Ks and 15 BBs, for a 2.15 ERA, 0.873 WHIP and 2.33 FIP. What you don't see in those numbers are a 62:36 (or 1.72) Ground Out to Fly Out ratio, which is a result of his ground ball inducing FB, hammer curve and palmball. One thing to consider is that his BABIP was .243, which was the result of all those ground balls. He was 2 years young for the Midwest League, but his K% was not stellar (22.2%) Add to the considerations the way he is built (think a young Carlos Silva,) and there are some considerations about his future. A Carlos Silva is a good comparable for his potential (mid of rotation starter) and, like Carlos Silva, to reach it, Hu needs to have impeccable control and induce many ground balls. So, even though, a lot of people will see his numbers and rank him even higher, I do have serious concerns.
     
    17. Mitch Garver C (17), RHB, DOB: 1/15/1991, 6'1", 220 lbs
     
    Mitch was the Twins' 9th round pick in the 2013 draft from the University of New Mexica and was not much on the radar last off-season after a .243/.313/.366 performance in Elizabethton, while 1.5 years older than the league average. Garver really impressed me last Spring Break with his bat, his athleticism and his ability to handle pitchers, thus he was my highest ranked catching prospect in the Twins' organization in my mid-season list (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-twins-mid-season-top-40.html) as he is in this list. Puting the highest OPS for a Catcher in the organization .289/.399/.481, does not hurt. He was also 1.5 years too old for the Midwest League, but displayed great selectivity (61:65 BB:K ratio, that translated to an OBP a hair below .400) which is not really related to level of play. He has excellent power (hit 16 HR in 430 AB and .183 IsoP.)
     
    Mitch looks like a catcher and has good insticts behind the plate. He did spent time as a DH but the Twins rotate their catchers to DH in the low level leagues. Mitch will start 2015 at Fort Myers and might finish in Chattanooga, depending on performance and health and how his bat responds to higher level of play, potentially reaching the majors for a cup of coffee in 2016 and maybe as the Twins starting catcher in 2017. Further improving his ability to call a game, will be critical for his development. His 17th overall ranking is quite conservative and a reflection of Garver being older for the league. He has four tools (and average speed) so with a good showing in 2015, I expect him to break into the Twins' top ten prospect list.
     
    16. Jake Reed RHP (--) RHRP, DOB: 9/29/1992, 6'2", 190 lbs.
     
    Jake Reed was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2014 draft from the University of Oregon and has raised eyebrows from the first to his last pitch in his first season as a pro. He started his career at Elizabethton (0.5 years older than the league) where he pitched 6 innings in 4 games, allowing a single hit, striking out 8 batters (0.00 ERA, 0.167 WHIP.) He moved up to Cedar Rapids, where a year younger than league average, he pitched 25 innings, had 31 Ks and 3 BBs (0.36 ERA and 0.520 WHIP). His pro season was not over, as he represented the Twins in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 12.7 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 (0.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.) Jake started his 2014 season as a junior in Oregon, pitching 31 innings, striking out 34 and walking 15 (1.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.) His full 2014 season in all of his 4 stops, he pitched 80.7 innings in 61 games, accumulating 22 saves, striking out 83 and walking 22 (and most of those in College) while pitching at an ERA close to 1.00 and WHIP under 1.00. His 0.452 WHIP and 0.29 ERA with Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids were the lowest for any pitcher in the Twins organization.
     
    Reed has two pitches: a plus plus fastball with a lot of movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 97-98, and an above average slider in the low 80s. The biggest change he made from Oregon to the pros was to change his high effort delivery to a simple delivery. This increased his command and control (15 BB in 31 IP in College vs 7 BBs in 49.7 IP in the Pros.) Also the changes in his mechanics added about 2-3 mph to his FB compared to College. With additional work on the slider and the development of a third pitch (changeup?) Reed will be well on his way to being a late innings reliever for the Twins. Will likely start 2015 in Fort Myers with a promotion to Chattanooga mid season. Both in these rankings and in the organization, there is only one reliever ranked higher than Reed.
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
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