biggentleben

I'm simply not a fan of the current All-Star fiasco, with it's terrible attempt to mix popularity and half-season performance, rewarding players who often come back to earth in the second half to show they're nowhere near a "star" in the league, to create a roster that's as likely to have Brian LaHair facing Jim Johnson to decide the game as it is to have Albert Pujols facing Cliff Lee. Oh, wait, that latter matchup can't actually happen in 2012. Yet another reason to not watch the idiocy that is the game. The Futures Game, heck yes I'll watch, even though they snubbed a few guys every prospector would love to see, but the All-Star game would have to pay me to come watch it in person to get me to watch it again. That said, I was intrigued by who the "true" half season All-Stars would be, so I checked it out via FanGraphs' WAR system for each position in both leagues (those with a * have over a full WAR lead on their closest competitor): National League C - Carlos Ruiz 1B - Joey Votto* (biggest position discrepancy in all of baseball!) 2B - Aaron Hill 3B - David Wright* SS - Ian Desmond/Jed Lowrie (tied) OF - Michael Bourn, Ryan Braun, Martin Prado SP - Zack Greinke RP - Aroldis Chapman/Craig Kimbrel (tied) AL C - Joe Mauer 1B - Edwin Encarnacion 2B - Robinson Cano* 3B - Brett Lawrie/Adrian Beltre (tie) SS - Elvis Andrus OF - Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, Austin Jackson SP - Justin Verlander RP - Joe Nathan

But his games at C are always going to be worth more than a 1B, and he's better than Encarnacion by 0.2 WAR and Konerko by 0.3 WAR at this time with C value included. Value is very dependent on position, not just offensive numbers. When he's healthy, Mauer is a very good catcher defensively, so not only does he get positional value, but he gets above average value for that position.

It's still grading out as a pitcher's park (19th in baseball in runs) this year, and it's not finished higher than 19th in any season. That said, this is not a "park factor" statistic. It's a runs allowed statistic. Yankee stadium grades out as a hitter's park easily, yet it's often lower in runs scored because the Yankees typically have solid pitching. Baseball-reference uses a grading system on all parks with a 100 score being average (explained here), over 100 being hitter friendly, and under 100 being pitcher friendly. This season the batter/pitcher average is 99, the multi-year grade is 97. While year to year grades will show plenty of variance, the multi-year grade often is very true to form. Target Field is the 10th most pitcher-friendly park in that statistic, ranking behind your assumed parks (Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles (both of them), San Diego, etc., but also ranking as more of a pitcher's park than some assumed pitchers' paradises like Washington, Oakland, and Atlanta. To compare, Yankee stadium is the 6th most hitter-friendly park according to B-Ref's park adjustments, but they're 16th in runs scored this season. Terms like "pitcher-friendly" or "hitter-friendly" cannot be simply evaluated with home runs or runs scored. Coors Field is incredibly hitter friendly, but it has some of the largest dimensions of any field in the game, which would on the surface look pitching friendly. However, the thinner air and huge outfield hurt pitchers as line drives often take different routes in the Colorado air and can cut through and out of the park where they'd often die due to air friction in a similar-sized park closer to sea level.

Just FYI, Willingham ranks 9th among AL OF in fWAR this season thus far. Span is 13th. Willingham is tied with Mauer for the highest fWAR on the team. Of course, it drops off pretty bad after Span at 3rd with Jamey Carroll 4th, over a full win behind Willingham and Mauer.

You mean the Brewers or any team that acquires him? Because the Brewers are the only ones that can even get a supplemental pick.

Edwin Jackson has been very, very good this year, and he'll likely be rewarded with a significant deal. Sanchez is one of those guys who consistently has a higher ERA than FIP, which is interesting, but you can't go by his win/loss record to determine his success as he's been a 4-WAR pitcher for the last two seasons and is on pace for that this year. Sanchez has 1.8 fWAR this year, while the Twins leader for the season is Diamond with 1.0. He would have easily been the best Twins pitcher in 2011 and second best to Liriano in 2010. The free agent market doesn't have a lot of depth in #1 type guys, but with Shawn Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels, and obviously Greinke also available, it's actually a pretty deep pitching class this year.

The Brewers? Because the Brewers are the only team that would get draft pick compensation for Greinke. Any team that trades for him will not.

It's not even that. It's the crap players who are deciding the game in the late innings because they're putting in some guy who's been mediocre, but he leads the league in a useless stat like RBI or Saves. That guy gets to decide the game in the 9th inning instead of Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Justin Verlander, or Clayton Kershaw.

Not necessarily a popularity thing with Ripken, but that is one of my biggest complaints about the game. I'd absolutely want Cal Ripken at the game. Likewise with Derek Jeter or Albert Pujols or Chipper Jones. Those are the STARS of the game. The game has gotten WAY too much to be the "half-season" all stars, and it's ridiculous. I really don't care if Pujols is hitting .210 or .310, if he's still playing, he's one of the top stars of the game, and he should be at the all-star game every season. Only an absolutely out of this world performance by an unknown or rookie player should warrant an All-Star nod, like the performance of Mike Trout this season. Otherwise, the All-Star rosters should almost be predictable from opening day.

This cannot be the argument, however. Look at the Braves recently with the Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami signings in the same offseason. Both were disasters in the end, Kawakami's because of performance alone, and Lowe's in performance relative to salary. However, both players were able to be moved this offseason and not destroy the franchise, which still has a tremendous depth of pitching. Now, the Braves are considered front runners in the trade market for Greinke and/or Garza. I do see the value in developing your own, but another area the Twins have balked at recently was going after the guy under team control that another squad knew they could not sign long-term. A guy like Mat Latos would be a great example. The Twins did not have a stud minor league catcher to include in the deal like Grandal, but they certainly had talent of similar value around baseball in the offseason. Would that mean a guy like Oswaldo Arcia or Eddie Rosario or Liam Hendriks, or all three may be forging their careers in San Diego? Sure, but that's the risk to get a guy like Latos that you could buy out some arbitration years from and sign long-term to be that kind of ace. It's an area that could see the Twins and Braves (I'm talking about them a lot in this post, but in this issue, they're a good example) could match up well this offseason. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson will both be arbitration eligible, and while Jurrjens will likely be had for a song, barring a major turnaround the rest of this season, Hanson is a legit talent with front-end stuff. He's had some consistency issues, but basically any starter on the planet has those same issues. The Braves are going to be looking for a CF if they cannot resign Michael Bourn (the easy best candidate for the All-Star vote, though I'd prefer to see Chipper in his last year or Bryce Harper in the game), and the foundation of a trade being Hanson and Span is absolutely a possibility. Those are the sort of deals the Twins need to be looking toward, and they've recently only given away pitchers with that kind of talent, not acquired them.

He has openly stated that he will not be going to New York or Los Angeles because of his social anxiety disorder. I'm guessing that'd put the Red Sox and both Chicago teams out as well. The market will get small in a hurry for Greinke, but he'll still get Matt Cain type of money.

No debating the top 20 status, but you're also talking about one of the worst systems in baseball. They have two uberprospects, and then it drops off tremendously. The #20 Orioles prospect may or may not make a Rangers or Rays top 50.

And the guys of interest in the organization at this point wouldn't be available, like Rendon, or would be more highly thought of by Washington than their relative value, like Alex Meyer and Matt Purke. I could see some guys like Marrero or their group of lefties (Solis, Ray, and Rosenbaum) being trade bait for Span, but I'm not sure that's the return many here would be happy with.

What about when pitchers adjust to the adjustment to the adjustment of the adjustment?!

It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

It's not "arbitration" anymore. It's a qualifying offer. However, for a rental, there are no draft picks, unless the guy accepts a qualifying offer, and plays a full season for the team that traded for him at the offer amount. A player must be on a team's roster (or in the organization) from Opening Day in order to qualify for any compensation.

I would be very surprised if the return was a top 50 prospect. Perhaps a top 100 guy, but more likely a guy in that 100-200 range would be the headliner for Span. Span and Beltran are two very different classes of player on the offensive end, and that's where the primary prospect value was driven. The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value. Wheeler was not a top 50 prospect coming into 2011, so even Beltran didn't warrant a top 50 guy.

Not to further the hijacking or anything, but read his book, and you'll very quickly figure out why you like him as a person. He is a very likable person.

No response to the defense, huh? I'm not assuming that he's a leadoff guy because Gardy puts him there, but you can assume that all you'd like. For as much attention as I pay to each Twins box score, he could be batting 9th for all I worry. I've seen what his numbers have been all season. For your comparison, THIS season, Parra and Span have identical 1.8 fWAR numbers. You're obviously anti-Span, so I'll leave the back and forth at that, but you may be surprised how Span is valued around the league.

LOL! My favorite team doesn't even play on FSN, so you may want to reconsider that statement. I've seen Parra for years. He's never won a Gold Glove as a CF. He looks amazing in left, and he's certainly above average in CF, but he's not THAT elite. Brett Gardner is a similar player. He looks elite in left, but he'd be simply an above-average CF. Span is a leadoff type of hitter. In the NL, Parra is a #2 or #8 hitter, not a leadoff type. Also, BRef's dWAR (which isn't perfect by any means) has Span as worth 2.3 WAR defensively the last two seasons while Parra has been worth 1.6 WAR in similar games. Span steals twice as many bases per 162 and has 20 points of OBP on Parra in their careers, so not sure what you're talking about. If you're enjoying small sample sizes, then sure, you can compare 3 months versus entire careers. They're similar value players, but Span is a better leadoff type.

An offer like that would have the Rangers laughing and hanging up the phone.

The Braves will be looking for a good defender who can leadoff. That's their main priority. Parra cannot leadoff, and neither can Bourjos. That's why neither would be a fit for the Braves, but Span would.

This hasn't been followed up on, but I will say that Ramirez is the only guy on here who's available and has a MLB future. Hechevarria is nowhere near available, and the other two are fringe guys at best.

The Mariners have the best group of minor league pitchers outside Arizona. No reason at all to consider Liriano, let alone send over anything of value.

Okay, but neither of those guys would fit with the Braves whatsoever.