cmb0252
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Everything posted by cmb0252
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Article: Twins To Name Gibson Fifth Starter
cmb0252 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This news really excites me. Gibson, Hicks, and Arcia all look to have starting spots with Pinto and Tonkin fighting for spots. A big rush of talent. This is something the Twins have been missing for awhile. With Buxton, May, Meyers, Rosario, and Sano right behind them this team is going to look real different soon. -
Jim Callis take on Rodon: We put Rodon atop our Draft rankings in December, and he's still the favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Astros. After he dominated Cuba last summer while with Team USA, scouts expected Rodon to do the same vs. lesser college competition this spring. Instead, he has been good but not great: 2-3 with a 2.45 ERA through five starts, with a 42/11 K/BB ratio and a .208 opponent average in 36 2/3 innings. Rodon's command and consistency have fluctuated, so he hasn't lived up to the better-than-David Price talk. But he's still a strong-bodied lefty with a pair of plus-plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and I still like him as much as I did before the season. There's no reason Rodon can't become a No. 1 starter in the Majors. Teddy Cahill's article on a few draft prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140321&content_id=69769030¬ebook_id=69769032&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb Mayo's take on early draft injuries and other draft prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140318&content_id=69552214¬ebook_id=69553420&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb
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8 of his top 10 prospects are pitchers so people who wanted an arm should be happy. A lot of bats are under producing but I'm excited to see Zimmer at 12. Big fan.
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Keith Law March 21st draft question from chat: Are there any other evaluators in the industry who are questioning Rodon at #1? - and if so, what would it take for the Astros to consider someone else there? They seem locked into Rodon - it would be quite the bold move to pick anyone else there it seems. Klaw (1:03 PM) I haven't found anyone - area guy, cross-checker, director - who's arguing that Rodon is worthy of 1-1 this year, and I don't think the Astros are remotely "locked into" Rodon. How much does Aiken's age play into your decision to rank him number one? He is much younger than Kolek, Jackson, and Gatewood. Klaw (1:05 PM) It doesn't really matter for a pitcher - age is a bigger variable for position players, although I think the extent to which it matters is up for debate at this point. Byron Buxton was about 18.5 at the draft, and no one is questioning whether he was that good of a prospect. I see 7 out of the top 10 prospects are high schoolers and 8 out of the top 10 are pitchers. Is this just how the distribution fell this time or is it a reflection on how you view higher upsides being more valuable than lower ceiling/surer things? Klaw (1:10 PM) That's the draft class this year - very pitching-heavy. So Rodon has suddenly lost his stuff? What about SSS and the fact that he always improves as the season wears on? Klaw (1:14 PM) SSS applies to statistics. People who try to apply that to scouting looks are suffering from two simultaneous failures of comprehension. As for Rodon, he hasn't "suddenly lost his stuff;" he's not throwing as hard, his slider is down from an 80 to a 70 or 60, and his command has never been great. When your stuff is dominant, scouts will overlook the lack of height, the maintenance body, the back issues in the past. When your fastball is average, that other stuff matters more. How does Aiken change the top tier? Aiken in Tier 1 and Beede, Kolek, Rodon in Tier 2? Klaw (1:19 PM) I'm not thinking in terms of tiers at this point. There isn't a huge dropoff between any two of the players you mentioned, however. Is Michael Kopech a first rounder? I know his velocity has been up and down but he's been as high as 98. Good 6'3 frame and his wing span is pretty unreal(like ubaldo). Also have you checked out the new War On Drugs record? It's a great listen. Klaw (1:23 PM) No one seems to think he'll hold 98 - he's not as physical as the Kolek/Holmes group, and the delivery isn't as good. Kopech could certainly be a first-rounder, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went late first to end of the second. Has there been any indication or talk that Rodon is injured? Klaw (1:25 PM) Not that I have heard. The one guy where there's injury talk is Dylan Cease - he's on the shelf right now, but it's not clear how serious the elbow issue is, so I ranked him more or less where he'd be when healthy and figured we'll let the situation sort itself out over the next few weeks. How much of a concern is Grant Homes' size? Klaw (1:26 PM) None for me. 6'1" is tall enough, and his body is fine - he's built well enough to be durable. Will the Astros and Cubs be more likely to go after college pitching to align with prospects already coming up? Klaw (1:40 PM) Pretty sure both will go BPA (best player available) - but for the Cubs in particular that seems like it'll almost certainly be a college arm. You say teams should draft best player available but do any teams not do that? Klaw (1:42 PM) As a general practice, no. Those questions typically come from fans who know the NFL/NBA drafts well, but are just learning about the MLB draft, which isn't just a different species ... it might as well be in its own phylum. Is Kolek just that good, or his opposition that bad, or both? Klaw (1:43 PM) Both. Are there any top 5-10 talents in the draft that can be picked up by the manaea strategy this year? (Injured and concern about ability) Klaw (1:50 PM) Fisher isn't a top 5-10 talent but is probably a top 15-20 talent and is now hurt. Cease could be that kind of guy too, but the Vanderbilt commitment might trump MLB dollars. I like how you suddenly like Finnegan now that he is mowing people down. I thought short pitchers were always bad? Klaw (1:52 PM) I like how you fabricated an explanation for the kind of rankings change that happens every year in the draft. The percentage of scouts who told me last fall they thought Finnegan was a starter was a lot lower than the percentage who tell me that now. And height matters a lot more for RHP than LHP in the draft Re: the earlier discussion on Rodon, a general question (I've asked before, but didn't get answered): so how many times do you need to scout a player before you feel that you can get an accurate assessment on him? Seems like you'd want to avoid passing judgment based on what could be an off day or two, but I'm wondering what the right number of views would be. Thanks. Klaw (2:05 PM) Because I can't see guys as many times as an area scout would, I make a lot of phone calls, I watch video, and I try to see as many elite guys that I can. Trying to avoid exactly what you're getting at - killing a guy for one bad look. For full chat here. He answers questions about Hicks/Gibson: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50235/mlb-insider-keith-law
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A lot of arm problems so far from the 2012 draft.
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Christopher Crawford wrote a new article today about how Derek Fisher's injury could change the draft. Like Fisher last year Austin Wilson started as a possible top 10 guy but slipped because of injury/poor performance. Austin was selected by the DBacks with the 49th pick. Crawford suggests Mike papi, michael conforto, and a personal favorite Bradley Zimmer could pass him. Here is what one scout had to say: "I think if you're looking at direct competition, Conforto and Papi are the guys that make the most sense," an AL East crosschecker said. "Zimmer had already passed Fisher to me because I think he's going to be a quality corner outfielder, something that [Fisher] was never going to become. But Conforto, Papi and Fisher all have similar skill-sets, guys who are going to make their money with the bat from the left side and you think can give you .280 seasons with 15-20 homers, maybe a little more. "Obviously it'll depend on how he looks when he's back on the field, but right now I think Conforto is clearly ahead of Fisher, and it wouldn't shock me at all if Papi went ahead of him, too." Crawford also goes on to identify Sean Newcomb, Matt Imhof, and Kyle Freeman as potential small school first round arms. Great article with a lot of great info. Here is the insider link: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1389
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I see nothing wrong with the front office calling out players for underproducing but they are the ones who put them out there. While pitching was the Twins #1 priority in the off season it was obvious this team needed at least one bat, if not two. Outside of Choo I wasn't a big fan of the offensive free agents but that doesn't mean we couldn't have traded for a bat.
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BA article on 4 HS pitchers staring Aiken. Griffen is an interesting second round guy. Good read. Link here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-tracker-high-school-hurlers/
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Keith Law mentioned Aiken in his Alex Jackson article today. He is going to see him next week but he has had scouts say he should be in the mix for the top 5 picks. I would love another big time lefty prospect to go with Thorpe and Gonsalves.
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Yikes. If anyone of us knows what the twins are thinking it would be you Jeremy but I hope you are wrong. Weaver just doesn't have top 5 level tools. Weaver isn't even in my personal top 15.
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Santana was a lefty with a 70+ grade changeup. Big difference. Also, while they are both undersized Santana had much better delivery. Some experts think Nola might be a reliever because of his delivery. He is a solid prospect but not a top 5 talent.
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MLB Pipeline's 2 articles on Twins prospects
cmb0252 replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Mayo will be taking Twins farm system questions at 3 ET. -
Jim Callis also chimes in on the weekend matchups: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140314&content_id=69290466¬ebook_id=69290468&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb
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MLB pipeline has two new articles about Twins prospects. Twins have talent on horizon with strong prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/min/twins-have-talent-on-horizon-in-strong-prospects?ymd=20140314&content_id=69296326&vkey=news_min How do Twins prospects fit: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/min/bernie-pleskoff-how-do-twins-prospects-fit-minnesotas-needs?ymd=20140314&content_id=69295968&vkey=news_min
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To add on to this weekends big matchup BA had a lot of good scout quotes on it in this article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/weekend-preview-march-14-16/
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BA article on big lefty Sean Newcomb: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/hartfords-newcomb-is-late-rising-northeasterner/
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KLAW article up on Twins observations
cmb0252 replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If Hicks can show he is true big league CFer I would definitely be all for trading him once Buxton is up. True CFers are always at a premium. -
KLAW article up on Twins observations
cmb0252 replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Twins questions from his chat today: Do you think Aaron Hicks will hit enough to play a corner when BB is ready to claim center field? And, on a completely related note, should he not be the cautionary tale for teams that make roster decisions based on spring training stats? Klaw (1:45 PM) I think Hicks will end up someone else's CF, because in a corner he's not as valuable - the Twins will get more benefit from trading him to fill another need than from moving him to RF. He's a cautionary tale for fans who lose their minds over March stats, too. Long term outlook on Sano - unchanged, sort of worried, very worried, at least you have Buxton. Klaw (1:51 PM) Mostly unchanged. So maybe he ends up off 3b sooner than expected. It's not as damaging as Eddie Rosario missing 50 games, where he needed the reps more urgently. How long until we see Meyer,May and Berrios? Klaw (2:15 PM) Meyer later this year. May has to go to the pen for me, and that should happen this year in the minors. Berrios more like 2016. Kyle Gibson, already 26 yrs old, is apparently being blocked by Deduno/Diamond/Worley (all out of options). That is dumb. Klaw (2:22 PM) I've heard Worley has looked awful. Really don't understand the strategy there. -
Keith Law chat part 2: Between Jacob Gatewood and Nick Gordon, who has the better hit tool? Heard rumblings Gatewood's hit tool might not be good enough for him to showcase his power in the higher levels. Klaw (2:03 PM) That's changed this year - Gatewood is hitting better, using the whole field, showing a more mature overall approach. Love both guys but Gatewood seems like he's going in the top 5-6 at this point. Hartford's game at Nova tomorrow was canceled. Do you have any plans to see Newcomb this year? Does he still have a shot at cracking the top five come June? What does he have to show given the competition level? Klaw (2:21 PM) I'll see Newcomb in April or May when I'm up there for Baseball Tonight. Top ten potential, has to throw strikes. He also answered several Twins prospect questions: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50186/mlb-insider-keith-law
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Keith Law chat today: Aaron Nola top 5 pick? Klaw (1:08 PM) No shot. Good college pitcher in a draft loaded with great arms, college and high school. Nola in the top 5 would be a huge blunder. Is Carlos Rodon overrated? Klaw (1:12 PM) He hasn't pitched up to expectations - fastball has been average, command average or a tick below, and he's not missing bats. I thought a month ago he was the clear 1-1 pick, but now I don't see it. Is the top end of this year's draft stronger or weaker than last year's? Klaw (1:13 PM) Top end weaker. Rest of the first round is stronger than it's been in ages. It's going to rival 2011 and 2005 as the best drafts during my time in the business. If Rodon is no longer the clear 1-1, has anyone moved ahead of him, in your opinion? Klaw (1:27 PM) I'll have a ranking up some time next week. I don't think there's anyone who's clearly 1-1, but I think Rodon's been passed by a few guys. Could make a cogent argument for him to be behind any of Kolek, Gatewood, Jackson, Hoffman, Beede. Oh, I forgot Brady Aiken - prep lefty who was 94-97 in an inning in an exhibition game vs Alex Jackson last Saturday, with a plus CB too. Just to be clear - You won't be shocked if in three months, Rodon is back to being the clear 1-1, right? It's early, and he's had a few sub-par starts. Klaw (1:29 PM) I wouldn't be shocked, no, but your characterization isn't accurate. It's not about subpar performance; it's about lack of the tools, other than the slider, that would make him the 1-1 guy. Hoffman, Beede, Kolek: who has the highest ceiling and who has the highest probability? Klaw (1:30 PM) Hoffman. Plus-plus athlete with easy velocity and the potential for a plus curveball. Always bet on great athletes. Beede is the safe guy of the three, probably pitches at 92-93 when he's every fifth day, while Kolek ... you can't exactly go wrong with a 6'7" monster who legitimately hits 100+. Weren't you pretty confident of Rodon as not just the obvious 1-1, but as one of the best prospects of the last few years? It's not like you're dropping him out of the 1st round, but do you remember anyone else falling so fast from such a height? Klaw (1:33 PM) I thought he was the obvious 1-1, but argued that he wasn't Strasburg or Harper. He wasn't that kind of elite, but he was a lot better than he's been so far this year - and given that he's had some back trouble in the past and he doesn't offer physical projection, I can easily understand why scouts/execs are backing away from him. 2nd Best '14 prep arm: aiken or holmes? Klaw (1:50 PM) Tough call. Would have said Holmes before Aiken had that one-inning velocity spike. Probably still will, but if Aiken shows that kind of fastball when he's lengthened out, that's tough to beat. Why are you not as high on Trea Turner as most draft gurus? He looks like a faster Michael Young if he maxes out. Klaw (1:58 PM) I don't comment on what other writers might say about players or the draft, nor do I consider that in my rankings or writeups. I see players, I talk to scouts, I write about it. Turner isn't close to Young - no power, bad swing, not physical, only thing he has in common with Young is that he probably won't stay at short.
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Haha, that would be nice but I'm guessing he is still a first round guy. Hey, Austin Wilson fell to 49 last year so anything is possible.
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OF Derek Fisher out 4-6 weeks with a torn labarum. While he isn't a top 5 prospect some experts had him going in the top 10.
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All draft prospects, prospects in general, have question marks. Turner's was his future power potential. 4 weeks in he has had 1 XBH which is killing him. While the Twins need a SS they might be able to find better value at other positions.
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Thanks for the update. I always have problems finding HS stats.
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HS data is hard to come by and what does come out is normally not the whole story. Even more than college ball, HS ball has to be scouted by facts and not statistics. So far he has showed plus-plus power but still hasn't proven he has at least an average hit tool. Competition can be misleading on any level but especially in HS.

