Oxtung

I understood that Kab, sorry if you thought I was putting words in your mouth...I wasn't trying to. Your post just made me think about how different that list will look a year from now that's all. Of course with Willingham and Morneau still in the stable perhaps it will look different yet in another month.

This is what I'd like to see. Agreed. Hicks has zero PA's above AA. Let him get a few months at AAA then let's reevaluate. That also should prevent him from reaching super 2 status. I think the most interesting question is what happens with Benson?

Almost assured coming off the list: Hicks, Gibson Potentially coming off the list: Arcia, May, That's 4 of our top 10 potentially getting enough PT to no longer be "prospects". So, while I know this was not exactly what you meant by "flying up the lists", I think it's safe to say our Top 10 entering 2014 will be much different than entering 2013.

Well, Ryan was able to totally bone Philly who was desperate for a cheap CF with major league experience...so maybe, maybe not. We also don't know what Philly, the team with the most knowledge of their pitchers, felt about the futures of these 2. To me this reads as Philly was very uncomfortable with these pitchers futures. I think Philly wanted to get what value they could from these 2 before one potentially turns into a lemon and the other a pumpkin.

If the Twins are essentially giving up on 2013 they should be looking to trade Willingham and Morneau this season as well. If they trade Morneau and Willingham then realistically the Twins won't be competitive until 2015 or perhaps 2016. In 2015 Mauer will be 32 years old. The Twins will be paying $25M still for his services but we will have wasted his best years on non contending teams. So just as we are becoming competitive again Mauer will be winding down his career and still owed a boatload of money. I am not sure how I feel about that. Should we be looking to trade Mauer (assuming he gives the OK) just because we don't want a $25M anchor around our necks in the out years without the benefit of being competitive during his productive years?

Your argument has gone from: To: Since my point this whole time has been it is likely he will put up offensive numbers similar to his 2012 season, not that he would be much improved, I think we're seeing eye to eye. If his numbers remain relatively consistent then his trade value going into 2014 should be similar to what it is going into 2013.

I don't even want to fathom what many here some to be advocating. The idea that the veterans should all get sold off AND the Twins should just pocket the cash.... I just don't understand how people can be advocating that.

His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier. You're ignoring the fact that he had 1700+ plate appearances in the minors where he hit for a high average with little power. So when you look at his whole professional career the real outlier is his rookie season in 2011. Many prospects struggle their rookie year. Nothing unusual there. His LD% in 2012 allowed him to hit ~.300/.330/.340. He weighed 170 lbs. Unless you're predicting he is going to play 2013 at <170 lbs. or you think he lost considerable muscle his weight shouldn't affect his LD%. Look it's possible he'll tank in 2013. It's also possible he'll OPS .750. The more likely outcome is that he puts up numbers similar to 2012. That's what he did for 4 years in the minors and that's what he did last year. The only outlier here is his rookie season. So again, if you think he's going to slump in 2013, why? What is going to change this offseason?

265/310/300 That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it. That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different? Because if his overall line keeps trending where it did the last two months, the not-really-as-good-as-it-looks 675 OPS turns into a 620 OPS and suddenly the "serviceable hitter who plays great defense" becomes a "defense-only guy" as a trade chip. Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says".... The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.

So because he had 76 bad games last year he suddenly is a bust? He was a top 100 guy pre 2011 and pre 2012. His stock has dropped no doubt, but still has the potential to hit for a .800 OPS and has 20-25 HR power. Way to early to write the kid off yet. It's probably way to late to write him off as a "legit prospect" as well. At this point he seems to be more of a "put up or shut up" this year kind of prospect.

265/310/300 That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it. That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different?

I would count this report from LEN3rd as an indication that the Twins think he is close to ready: "Twins General Manager Terry Ryan didn't sound interested in bringing Meyer along slowly. "We'll let the pitcher dictate his ability to go through a system," Ryan said. "This guy is a power-type pitcher who throws it over. That equates to someone who should be able to do some things in the minor leagues and get up here."" http://m.startribune.com/?id=181628701 That quote means next to nothing with regards to MLB ETA. He is simply saying that the Twins will let Meyer's pitching in the minors determine how quickly Meyer moves up. Which just leads back to your (the general you, not twinsfaninsaudi you) personal assumption about how quickly Meyer will show he is ready to move. Twinsfaninsaudi seems to think Meyer is going to dominate at each stop and so will progress quickly. Others think he will struggle enough with his mechanics, whether that is because the Twins want to tweak them or just because he is 6'9" tall, and therefore won't rise rapidly.

There's no guarantees he even starts this season in AA. Ryan hasn't committed to where he'll be placed yet. We won't see him with the Twins this regular season But come that 1 game playoff series he'll be ready! He'll be ready.

It's amazing how things have changed in 5 months. Many fans wanted a front line starter prospect back for Liriano at the trade deadline or were flat out upset that he wasn't resigned. Now many don't even want him on the team no matter how low his salary. Just goes to show how much we as fans tend to overrate players based on emotional attachment.

Amazing the difference in timelines people have. I'm under the assumption that Meyer won't be handed a rotation spot until mid-2014. This isn't a guy who is some polished college pitcher like Gibson was. As Rocketpig said, he has struggled with mechanics and control. Also there is little reason to rush him. Either the Twins are going to sign some real pitchers this year, in which case there shouldn't be a need to rush Meyer, or we're going to be absolutely terrible, in which case there still is no need to rush Meyer because he will make little impact on the Twins trajectory this year. Rushing Meyer just starts his clock a year sooner when he isn't needed.

Imagine the clubhouse atmosphere towards the end of the season when during the pennant stretch you've got 9 players that need 100AB's a piece but there are only 75 AB's a piece remaining. Incentives don't support team play and working towards a common goal. Instead they foster an atmosphere of ME>Team. I don't believe that will help the team get to the WS. If people thought Baker took too long to divulge the seriousness of his arm injury last year imagine what it would be like if half his salary was riding on him meeting some number of innings pitched.

Another interesting byproduct of trading Revere is how it would affect potential Morneau or Willingham trades at the deadline or next year. The assumption, to me, has always been that Morneau would likely be traded at the deadline this year as his salary becomes less of an issue. Then Parmelee would move to 1st and Hicks/Arcia/Benson would then step into the OF. If you move Revere before the season and still want to move Morneau/Willingham you now need a second of the Hicks/Arcia/Benson trio to be ready and to compete successfully. Getting 1 successful season out of the trio probably is doable. Getting 2 successful seasons becomes less likely. If Revere is moved I'd say we should expect to see Mastro and a AAAA player (did Bigley get resigned?) getting plenty of PT. I guess a washed up vet for a year is likely as well. A second fallout from moving Revere is how uncertain our lineup becomes. 3B, SS, 2B, RF, CF would all be basically unknowns heading into the season. If you then want to trade Willingham or Morneau you are adding another uncertainty to the field. It is possible that by the second half of the season we'll see a team where the only stable and veteran players are Mauer and Doumit.

As always when it comes to trade rumors it depends on what the return is. If Revere can bring back a potential starter with #2 starter makeup you obviously pull that trigger (however unlikely that is) but if you're looking at a C prospect or 4 or 5 starter that sounds like a terrible deal. Trading Span's production was somewhat mitigated by Revere's presence. Revere could replace much of Span's production offensively and defensively and costs a 10th of Span's salary which could then, presumably, be used to improve the team elsewhere. He was a semi proven commodity. Trying to replace Revere at this moment becomes more problematic. While we have a few potential candidates in the minors none of them are sure things. The list of great minor leaguers who failed to produce in the majors is long. What if you trade Revere and Hicks doesn't pan out? You might be able to replace their defensive value but who do the Twins have to bat leadoff? Dozier? Florimon? Short term Carroll might work but he certainly isn't ideal. On the other hand we could hold onto Revere for the next 7-12 months and wait to see what we really have in Hicks. Then if Hicks looks at least serviceable we could pull the trigger. Holding Revere for another year should do little to diminish his value. Revere would still have 4 years of team control left. I guess my point here is there is a big risk in trading Revere at this point because there isn't a player waiting to replace him. We have some prospects but they're just that, prospects. We have no idea how they will ultimately pan out. So the reward would have to be commensurate with the risk. If the return is not of high enough value there is no need to rush trading Revere as he will have value still in July, next December or anytime in the next few years.

I personally disagree with the burn it down strategy you're promoting in this post but even if that is the route we head down throwing prospects to the wolves isn't a good solution. Hicks hasn't had an AB above AA and Arcia has only 250 AB's above A ball. It would be foolish to just hand either of them a position this coming year. If you trade Willingham, Morneau, et. al. there would be plenty of money to bring in veterans to fill the vacated spots for however long is needed before our young talent shows it is ready for the bigs.

Why would that be? To me they are just like any other player except they reach base less overall. You'll find streaky hitters with exceptionally bad streaks and others who are just consistently poor with little variation in their output. I have no data to support my conclusion so if you have seen studies I would be interested in reading about it. Of course none of that has to do with your larger point about Plouffe, who is a streaky hitter, I understand.

If you're talking about next year then none of those are good predictors because they're not predictive tools. They all are measurements of what has already happened and tell you nothing about what is to come. It is up to each individual to meld various inputs of past data and come to a reasonable prediction of future results. As such ERA is just as viable a tool as any others. There are no crystal balls.

Interestingly JT Chargois was also mentioned in the article. He apparently didn't get enough support from scouts and managers to qualify but clearly he is seen by the author as someone with plenty of upside or he wouldn't be mentioned. That makes essentially 3 Twins in the top 10 @ Appy with another just outside of 20 looking in. Exciting!

Seth, that's not true. Revere and Span get credit for getting themselves to 3B. I tried to look up the formula or even a good explanation of this stat but couldn't find one. Anyone have a link?

I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.

Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL? Career AL numbers: Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years Their career numbers mean little going into next year. Baker is not even a year removed from TJ surgery and Peavy is going to throw >200 IP.