jokin

I genuinely want to hear your take afterwards. I've been pulling for the guy all year, it's a great story how the Twins practically fell into a guy ready to step up and be a stopper when all around him is chaos.

Ding, Ding, Ding!

*** This simply isn't true. Vargas's career numbers BEFORE the "mirage" of 2012 exceed the Twins SP average numbers in virtually every category over the same time span (05-11). Furthermore, here are his non-"mirage" numbers (ie, before 2012), versus the Twins SP averages for this year, 2012: Vargas: ERA 4.19/WHIP 1.29/BAA .257/LOB% 70.3 Twins: ERA 5.50/WHIP 1.50/BAA .293/LOB% 67.1 The prospect the Twins would get for Vargas is based on the Mariners desire to rid themselves of $8-10M in salary, there's no way they get anyone very consequential in that transaction (Benson-level or lower?).

Scott Diamond is better than Jason Vargas. That says a lot about the "potential" of Jason Vargas. At least Scott keeps the ball on the ground to go along with those pedestrian peripherals and he's not riding an unsustainable .250 BABIP to put up that above average ERA. There isn't an argument to made about Vargas' potential, I haven't offered one. He is what he is. A predictable entity. By season-end he will have averaged over 200 innings per year over the last 3 years and get you consistently ~32starts/YR pitching into the 7th inning. By contrast, everything about Diamond says uncertainty. Diamond has been a nice surprise this year, I pull for him and admire how he goes about his business every time out, but he was among the very first cuts in ST this year, which says something about what the Twins thought of him- and how they might be the most surprised of all. That's why I'm surprised you automatically give the nod to a guy with such a small set of data and the high uncertainty that goes with any shot that Diamond has at sustainability of these numbers in 2013. Although he's clearly had a better year than Vargas, his numbers are rapidly regressing as the league builds a book on him- from his ERA nadir of 1.61 on June 9 to the current 3.04 of August 28. And, he's never pitched these numbers of innings before. While I certainly hope that Diamond can build on this season going into next year, I'll take the certainty of Vargas, even pre-2012 numbers (ie, X-BABIP-effect), going into next season, plus the possibilities that he offers as a trading deadline chip in 2013. If the Twins (unfortunately, a big IF by my reasoning) then go to the offseason FA market and get a Sanchez-type, you suddenly have a much more respectable staff, especially if Gibson and Hendriks come through at all.

Leaving room for doubt is what makes you the voice of reason on Twins Daily. That's the least glass-half-full sentiment that you've ever expressed, RB!

With Marcum, Liriano, Greinke, Jackson, Sanchez, and others hitting the FA market this winter, there is really no excuse for the Twins not to pick up one of those guys in the $12-15m per year range in a 3-5 year deal. They have the money and they have the need. History be damned, they need to pick up one of those guys. There may not be a good excuse for not signing one of them but TR has already said that it's not the way he plans to go. Unless Ryan suddenly decides to change his MO and spend big in free agency for the first time how else do you fill out the rotation? If you're going to be making trades, it better be for younger and higher upside arms. Why waste more time with another nobody like Vargas AND give up players because of a percieved higher value? Ryan isn't going to pay for free agents just to spend money, but by the same token, he shouldn't be making trades just for the sake of making trades. If you get Vargas, his salary is going to force the club to look at him as a top of the rotation arm, yet every red flag this year, and everything that he has done previous to 2012 points to him being a #5. That's the same problem the Twins have faced the last two years. They have guys they expected to perform as a 1-2 starter and and up getting #5 production. It's crippling the team and it needs to stop. And yet, you ignore the obvious facts that Vargas: 1) would immediately be better than anyone that the Twins currently control and project to start in 2013, 2) could be acquired without giving up much in return to a motivated seller, 3) would be highly incentivized to perform well in his FA-year, 2013, 4) could be a more valuable deadline trading chip than Paul Maholm was this year. This sets up a great high-reward, low-risk, no-brainer opportunity for the Twins

It has less to do with the Twins rotation and everything to do with buying high on Vargas. You're paying for a guy who will almost certainly regress from his current numbers but the Mariners will almost certainly expect a return in line with his current performance. That's a bad baseball decision. The Mariners would probably start the discussion with Parmelee. That's not a place the Twins should consider going at this point. Not for one year of a guy who is going to regress. If the Mariners are starting the discussion with Parmelee, it largely explains why they haven't been able to move him yet.

And yet, that was "the problem" that was first and foremost on Ryan's agenda to "fix" when he took over as general manager. Why is it "hate" when you point out facts? You have a superstar past his peak in production and out of phase with the next cycle of potentially productive prospects, playing on a team that is probably at least 3 years away from contending, a team that is absurdly pretending that it is contending now, when they should be entirely focused on rebuilding, so yes there is also "wasted money" involved in Mauer's contract, too.

Glunn, myself and others discussed the Mariners as a trade partner last week during the Mariners sweep of the Twins. Gotta think you could get 3 superior arms ( a combination of a ML pitcher like Vargas and a prospect or two (How about James Paxton and Carter Capps/Stephen Pryor?) from the relatively pitching-rich Mariners in exchange for very little, the Mariners need bats, some combination involving Revere and/or Plouffe/Parmelee with another high-ceiling Class A prospect thrown in?

Exactly spot on. I can't understand why there was any disagreement when discussing this option earlier this evening. The Twins are in the perfect position to pick up outright bargains relative to pursuing pitchers in the FA market (who of course, are accompanied by their over-promising agents). Given the demonstrated trade value for veterans in July and August, they could already have bolstered and/or set up 2 or 3 legitimate SPs for the 2013 staff with little lost except B- or lower prospects to teams who have been anxiously prioritizing the shedding of payroll anchors on their 2012 rosters. By not participating in this current buyer's market, they have set themselves up to be outbid in the offseason for anything other than Marquis-level retreads, never-weres or never-wills. (I'd definitely pass on Millwood, too old and Scott Boras as an agent) As I've written previously, missing out on Maholm and others- with the chance of flipping or keeping them after a one-year deal was a huge overlook by the Twins this past season.

The contract runs through 2018, so that means 6 more years. I agree that you have to keep him healthy, and as I mentioned in my opening paragraph, Ryan addressed that issue as a top priority in the offseason and got it done and it has been executed masterfully. But, you are obligated to a contract at $23M for a singles-hitting, high-OBP part-time catcher who has most likely already hit his ceiling and even in the best-case scenario, where Mauer maintains his career averages as Mark Grace did, he projects out to Grace-like numbers in his 30s: 303/388/455/843. These aren't bad and, crossing our fingers, are probably the best-case scenario. It still doesn't yield a decent-enough return on $23M/yr for the next 6 years assuming that Mauer's full-time catching days are long-gone.

It's true that numbers don't always translate and that Slama could just have figured out AAA hitters. He still posts a lot of walks and that may be a concern. But conversely, if a hitter was hitting, say .344/.463/.661 in AAA, you'd be wanting to see what he could do in the majors, right? Even if it was only sixty games and his recent few opportunities in the majors were relatively poor. It's also true that Slama has become somewhat of a lightning rod for the Twins talent evaluation, possibly past the point of reason, but how effective has that talent evaluation and their methods of doing so been in the last couple of years? What a terrible example, Alex......Now, if only the Twins had somebody even close to that good in AAA.........??? I'm still trying to figure out why Revere was sent down in favor of Komatsu, Thomas and Mastroianni.

To paraphrase Jim Morrison, given Morneau's "fragile eggshell mind", I'm surprised at how agressively Justin has been allowed to run bases this entire year, the play at 2B that knocked him out for two years seemed innocuous enough at the time it happened. If anything, after that triple by Morny (am I the only one that holds my breath a little bit each time he slides into 2B, 3B or home?), that's the time and place where Gardy should have strongly considered inserting Mastro to pinch run, moving Doumit to C and Mauer to 1B.

A lot of his ERA is manufactured in Safeco; his road ERA in his four years for the Mariners is above 4.5 and his 2012 hasn't moved that appreciably He'll likely draw $8M in arbitration, then elect free agency after 2013. Still interested? Given the current state of the Twins staff, yes.

Except that's what they essentially did in their trade with the Dodgers.

Great point and given the horrific state of the pitching staff and that the Twins have first pick on these waiver options for AL players, it's perplexing that Vargas- and many other waiver-wire dumps with team control going forward and for costs less than the siging some of the upcoming FAs- haven't been snapped up by the handful.

Your math is overinflated based on Mauer's current set of projected numbers. It's to Terry Ryan's credit that the team fulfilled a top priority in the offseason to structure the team with the goal at keeping Mauer on the field as much as possible- with the acquisition of Doumit and elimination of Thome- Mauer currently is on pace to play in 150.5 games, which will be a career high, he's only been above 140 twice. There are downsides in completing this objective, Mauer is also currently on pace to play catcher in 76.5 games, certainly not 85-95, and as the season winds down into the first week of October, it's reasonable to assume that actual number will be closer to 70. The "not catching enough" stat comes with the territory on the "position of scarcity" argument, which "justified" (at least to stat-geeks with their fantasy leagues and apparently the Twins braintrust who made the offer) the $184M contract in the first place. I don't think there's so much complaining about how much he's catching (as he's clearly declined in his catching skills in the last 3 years), it was clear to many early on in his career that potential health issues were always going to have to be weighed and factored into how to maximize his value to the team. Rather than complaints, this is just further recognition of the extraordinarily bad deal that was crafted by the Twins brass caught up in the stadium transition. Cautionary thought, 1B Todd Helton's production was already on the downward peak in 2004, at age 31, just as he was starting in making his big money. Mauer's career numbers, starting at age 21, and 1B Todd Helton's declining years since 2004 are similar, Helton with 43 more HR: Mauer 322/404/466/870 Helton 305/413/484/897 Certainly there is some Coors Field/NL inflation, but Helton's 9 year contract deal averaged out at $15.7M. As Mauer continues to further transition to a DH/1B/Other? set of roles in his 30s, can he maintain the career numbers he has established or are the Twins to endure the huge dropoff in numbers reminiscent to Helton who had extraordinary career number leading up to 2004?: Helton career from start in '97, through 2003 (ages 23-30): 337/425/616/1047 So, in Helton, you're looking at about a 15% drop in overall production and a 21% drop in slugging production. Even just a 10% drop in production by Mauer, for a high singles/BB/OPS champ, good-glove-1B/DH/PT C is hard to justify at $23M/yr for the next 6 years.

Except by Twins fans.... I don't think even Johnny Cochrane could make that argument with a straight face, and I'm talking about keeping a straight face now, in his current state of embalmment. What a surprise you chimed in. Oh wait, that's the only thing you ever talk about. Ever. I'll chalk that up to your "bruised humorous" rendering you unable to laugh a little at life's small frustrations. I heartily encourage you to "Lighten up, Francis." But, of course, if you actually took the time to look at my profile and check my archived posts, you'd of course discover that you are factually in error. And, if you disagree with my assessment of the above statement, instead of attacking me personally, you might have chosen to add to the discussion and defended the concept of the level of respect the Twins FO merits. I introduced myself onto this site stating my main interest in sports is related to the business side. But you will also find just about as many posts on the players, prospects and the strategy, so maybe instead of attacking, how about confining yourself to just reading posts on those topics?

Except by Twins fans.... I don't think even Johnny Cochrane could make that argument with a straight face, and I'm talking about keeping a straight face now, in his current state of embalmment.

Victor Conte's recent well-timed comments gaining more and more credibility... http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8289843

I concur, with the exception of my own preference for an on-base guy at the bottom of the order to set up the turnover back to the top and improve the odds of hit-stringing- ie, I'd flip Florimon with Butera.

Sal Jr got his caddying job back?

A completely sane and reasonable expectation. I was surprised that it took this long to get Pavano outside of the organization for review. After Baker, you'd think that's something they would have done in June. A failing on the part of the front office? Possibly, maybe even likely. Excellent proposal employing the common sense I advocated, which is why your previous abolutist argument against the critics held no water. I was not advocating firing everyone within shouting distance, just holding Ryan accountable to the words he himself used to address the situation. I'm sure most thoughtful outside critics were of the same mind. Ryan's opening statements upon becoming GM last year concerning the medical/training issues were in direct response to the disaster that the 2011 season became and which ultimately threatened to make the once-justly-proud Twins organization a laughingstock (how soon did we forget "bilateral leg weakness"?)-- starting with delayed but necessary surgeries shortly after the 2010 season completed, up to, and including the gaffe-tastic Public Relations debacle concerning health, season-readiness and injury issues. Given the unfolding events during the 2012 season, Ryan's failure to make a public effort to get out in front of this issue (as in the above proposal from powrwrap) is coming back to bite the Twins yet again.

Upon further review, based on new information, it seems this is exactly what the Twins did with Pavano: New York specialist Dr. David Altchek said Pavano has a bruise on the humerus bone, an injury that likely would have recovered in a few weeks had he rested it. Instead, Pavano worked three months on rehabilitating what was believed to be a strained shoulder capsule. Altchek saw every MRI the Twins did on Pavano during the season and concurred with their diagnosis. He even remarked in May that he noticed Pavano's shoulder gaining strength. Twins Assistant General Manager Rob Antony admitted to being surprised by the new diagnosis on Tuesday. "All along our doctors and Altchek have conferred on everything," Antony said. "To me, I'm not sure how many more medical opinions you can get on this guy, or more tests done or whatever, than we did." http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/166993736.html?refer=y This smells of an organization trying to play PR catch-up based on the initial announcement and Pavano's public statements in regards to the situation. Rob Antony is usually the nominee to do this kind of dirty work.

Considering that Diamond has already surpassed his previous career high for innings pitched, I would think that lightening his load from this point forward would actually benefit him greatly. Perhaps you haven't noticed, but pitching ain't the same as it was in Nolan's day. Huh? I think that's just the problem that Nolan, Jack and Bert are pointing out.