jokin

Seth, can't thank you enough. We heard a lot about some negative stuff what with some maturation processes and growing pain issues in 2013. Your report indicates we're going to have another Kirby-type personality coming our way very, very soon. Good to hear about how Plouffe and Mauer are handling the coming circus in such a professional manner, as well. Hope to see you down at Spring Training, I get the feeling that this one could be the most memorable one in a long time. TR's on WCCO tonight, and he says the Big Three timetable for their own promotions is all up to them, let's hold him to that admonition. Is there an official independent medical report out there about the elbow?

No problem. Ramble On! It's February next weekend.

If only the Twins had hired a "Plan B" consultant with just such advice way back in 2010.

FWIW- ZIPS projects Sano would hit 30 HR as a full-time major leaguer this year.....Oliver thinks he'd hit 41

Mark McGwire (pre-steroid days) hit 49 in his rookie year. 45 homeruns for Sano? Difficult, but not impossible......particularly if Twins management let's him swing away like A's management did for the Bash Bros.

Interesting back-to-back aritcles from the always-informative Camden Depot blog, it soon becomes obvious why the Twins have interest in both players: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/01/discussing-korean-free-agent-pitcher.html http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/01/brandon-waring-lost-minor-league-free.html The following is taken from an interview with a respected Korean baseball writer: What will it take to sign him? And, is it worth the risk? Do the Twins think he's "better than his recent stats" indicate and are willing to outbid the competition? And it turns out, Brandon Waring is a more interesting 28 year old, corner infielder, AAAA type, than I initially gave both he and Terry Ryan credit for after the signing, and gives the Spring Training invite some more credibility: Poor man's Mark Reynolds? His K and BB ratios are similar. He has hit over 20 HRs in every professional year. His AA/AAA career ISO is .233. Like Suk Min Yoon, he has put in his time in minor league ball- 7 years, and bounced between AA and AAA since 2010 (a shoulder injury forced him back to AA in 2013). He was forever blocked by Machado and Davis in the Orioles organization, thus time for him to move on. Oliver MLB 2014 projections are somewhat comical: 24 HR, .180 BA, .621 OPS, 40% K-rate. Intriguingly, the Camden Depot author, after breaking down numerous Waring ABs, surmises that there are enough positives in his game with his power potential and ability to hit the ball in the air, that a change in approach at the plate could salvage a role-playing major league spot for him, although the odds are against him: Most intriguingly, the author left out his platoon split in AA/AAA: Against LHP, he has a career .910 OPS with .294 ISO power, while hitting the ball in the air (LD [22%] and OFB combined) 68.4% of the time. (By contrast, Plouffe's major league numbers against LHP: .861OPS with .234 ISO power, while hitting the ball in the air 46% of the time [LD 15.5%].) Does he have a chance to get the Bernier/Dinkleman/Hughes cup of coffee with the Twins, or as an uppercutting DH/corner UTIL specialist?

Good stuff in your post, twinsfan. But I'm not sure if the highlighted sentence is tongue in cheek on your part, or not. Babe was one of the best 3-5 AL SPs in the game at ages 21 and 22 ( Babe was second only to Walter Big Train Johnson in 1916). Had he just continued his career as a Starting Pitcher and part-time OFer, he would have undoubtedly qualfied for the HOF on those merits alone.

Food for thought.....If Drew were to sign a 3-year flat deal at $10M/yr., player salary inflation- with probably a low-ball estimate of around 7.5%/anum- would render the third year of his contract at slightly over $8.5M. In 2013 terms, that gives you a 36 year old Marlon Byrd...food for thought. .

There are no cherries to pick here- this isn't an apples and oranges comparison....because....There is data and press reports that says coming back from ankle surgery slowed Drew's effectiveness in 2012. Drew's 2010, 2011, and most especially 2013, defensive data supports the supposition that 2012 was a year that can be largely disregarded based on the evidence presented. And you haven't as yet, presented evidence that confirms that putting Drew at SS instead of Florimon decreases the SS defense "likely by a significant margin and likely a margin that would only grow over time." A downgrade yes, no one is arguing that..... but my stats support an above-average SS played by Drew....and by the very stats you use and the BP chart you refer to, the more athletic SS, Florimon at age 27, is also entering his own decline phase, which if I'm correct in my hypothesis that more athletic players have more athleticism to lose, negates part of your supposition that the margin would grow over time.

$20-$28M is coming off the books before 2016. The Twins might use the excuse that their hands are tied by keeping Drew around in 2016, and there's a decent chance that the $10M could be better spent then, but they have numerous potential $10M piles sitting around One Twins Way, invalidating that Twins excuse- it's the cost of playing the game- and it's a cost that by management's own words, was built into building Target Field.

Guys with similar body type and similar playing styles and similar strong comebacks from injuries, and Drew has significantly improved his defense from his early Arizona days, all of these suggest that he might qualify as another exception.

I was well aware of the reticence of the defensive stat guys to giving one-year data the final word on someone's performance. I merely threw that one stat in there to stop the steamrolling tide that somehow was contending that Florimon is worthy of the Simmons "pedestal" and Drew is merely just another "pedestrian" SS. (And I'd like to see the data that says single-year dWAR is X-amount more statistically valid.) All of the reports on Drew from 2012 were that it was a very tough road he was on in his rehab and making it back to the majors, lots of stops and starts, he literally had to learn how to walk again (hence my double-entendred use of "pedestrian" above). [Have you seen the video of his injury? I posted it on the Drew thread. Gruesome.]

I don't know about the factors considered in this study, but I would think a lot of the drop off is related to the level of athleticism. A more athletic guy who relies on more athleticism is going to skew the data when he begins his decline phase. I would question the usefulness of this study in relation to Drew, as he doesn't start from that lofty athletic "pedestal";) that many SS do.

But he still was one of only 11 SS with a positive rating from 2010 to 2013. And if you throw out the defensive stats from his first year back from his ankle surgery in 2012, when he clearly was learning how to run, stop and start again (which was -7), Drew is around the top 5 for the years 2010, 11 and 13. (3 years of UZR data are considered valid).

No, putting words in mouths again. And certainly not misguided. Merely pointed to a metric that suggests that Drew isn't the defender you were making him out to be. The stats in 2013 indicate a poor-man's JJ Hardy like SS, a very non-flashy, non-rangy SS who reliably makes most of the plays in front of him, and reliably turns the DP. And his career stats indicate that he has improved at what he does best, as he has aged. Those of us who are terribly concerned about the offense have just as many valid reasons to try to remove yet another bat from the lineup that doesn't even qualify for Fantasy Baseball drafts.

Actually, the specific trends from Drew's recent defensive performance don't indicate anything with strong likelihood in a negative direction, certainly not an imminent cliff-like dropoff. If it should occur in year 2 of a 2 year deal, or year 3 of a 3-year deal, so what? He still brings a solid bat to his makeup against RHP, offering a nice potential Super-Util option. And again, $10M in an expiring year isn't going to cripple the franchise.

C'mon Levi. Is there anyone on here that has said, in any way, shape, manner or form, that Drew is somehow flawless? The main points in favor of signing him are: the sorely-need bat, a position of need that doesn't block a prospect, and the fact that overpaying him if he turns out to be a bust in out-year #1 or #2 won't hurt the franchise's long-term goals of acquiring more talent in other sorely-needed areas.

I never said Drew is a better defender than Florimon, I did say that the differences that you emphasize between them are perhaps not the vast gulf that you seem to believe is the case, it's what I'm arguing is what's not valid in your case for Florimon. How does 4 years worth of UZR data value Drew? Even though he had one bad defensive year during this time- his comeback year from ankle surgery in 2012, he still ranks #10 defensively among all SS with over 3700 innings played from 2010-2013. These numbers are strongly supported, not opinion or conjecture. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=3500&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

The problem is, there are also valid reasons- and more urgent reasons- to get more offense on a team that is coming off of a year where they scored the same amount of runs as in 1968 (The Year of the Pitcher), and to this point anyway, have actually downgraded the offense from 2013.

Do you really want to go to the place where you accuse those who hold a valid different opinion as undue hero-worshipping and call the usage of opposing metrics as "irrational"? I merely pointed out you might be overrating Florimon's defense relative to Drew- because of Drew's experience at proper positioning and the ability to more consistently make the plays in front of him, UZR suggests he makes up elsewhere from the areas where he's clearly behind Florimon.

I think his bat will be better than Florimon's, not only at 33, but at 43, as well. I would hope a third year with Drew is not an issue- as he's signed for only 2, but it's demonstrable with the Twins projected payroll in 2016 that an excess $10M on the books doesn't cripple them from making further moves, whatsoever.

Drew actually had a better UZR and UZR/150 than Florimon in 2013. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

JJ Hardy turns 32 this year, and is somewhat reminiscent to Drew....he hasn't dropped off defensively at all (2 straight Gold Gloves), he makes every play in front of him, despite what the trends said about him, as well. Speaking of "fixing holes", is 4 years enough time to fix the hole left by Hardy's departure in 2010, "fast" enough?

SSS is totally meaningless and misses the point of the original point being made- Drew has proven he is fully healthy now, and confirmed his career-track production- he doesn't wear out as the season progresses. August and September, in large sample sizes, have been his 2 best months career-wise.

The Twins are in a similar position, that's the starting hypothesis for getting this deal done. Once Boras realizes he isn't going to get 3 years, he runs out of leverage, the teams interested in him only want to go one year, hopefully Drew then falls into the Twins lap at 2 years.