jokin

Published today: "Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports also has some specifics on recent offers made to Santana; the Orioles' last three-year offer was believed to be in the $27MM range, while the three-year offer from the Twins was in the $30-33MM range. That offer was still on the table as of last night."

This certainly doesn't square with the reports that there is still a standing offer out there. More bad reporting? Or a slip-up in messaging on behalf of the Twins? Just a PR move to show the fans "We're still trying"?

On what basis are you assuring us of this? Don't get me wrong, I hope you prove to be right, but I don't see the data or evidence, other than betting on a contrarian long shot.

* or lack thereof. I guess we can coin a new term, as a future warning and caveat: Beware of "staple logic". Translation: you can't have enough quality SP in your depth chart and developmental pipeline.

So...the answer out of this mess is to cut more payroll?

Bingo. Some are too easily dismissive of an organization with a shrewd eye for talent.

From the reports I've read, you'd have a "utility guy" that has the ball jump off his bat with a power arm who is well beyond the raw stage concerning the skillset for his major league readiness. The only question is whether or not he can stick at SS. As far as "loss" is concerned, nothing ventured, nothing gained. It would have cost very little to find out if he was the answer at SS or not, plus the Twins had the upper hand over the Cardinals in guaranteeing Diaz a faster path to a major league starting lineup.

Thankyou for the reality check, Tobi! In what universe is Pelfrey ever better than Santana? And to JC yes, last year was a productive year for the inconsistent Santana, but you're understating his value, even though we both agree that he's way better than Pelfrey. To wit: Santana has been really good in 2 of the last 3 years and had an ERA+ above 100 in 4 of the last 6 years, a WAR @ 3 or better in 5 of 8 years. By contrast, Pelfrey has been really good in ZERO of the last 3 years and had an ERA+ above 100 in 2 of the last 6 years, none since 2010, and he has had a WAR of 3 or better only ONCE in 7 years. This is not close. And given that the Twins have actively been pursuing both Garza and Santana, AFTER signing Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco, tells me that they feel compelled to hedge their bets on what the remaining "crazy" SP depth can possibly bring to the table, including Gibson.

The quality of reporting regarding the $number leaves a lot to be desired. I believe it was reported last year that the Twins felt that his price was out of their reach. This is a head-scratcher, especially with this report I've quoted below about his workout with the Cards. Imagine a team having the #33 ranked prospect starting at 2B (Kolten Wong) and signing a big-name FA at SS, re-upping their 3B, AND STILL willing to go out and get Diaz, regardless. The same writer who reported on the salary terms makes it sound like Diaz has game-changing potential and that the Cards are constantly looking to build depth, and then they spent an enormous amount of time and effort at understanding the Cuban game and what Diaz potentially has to offer: "Diaz has a lively bat, and scouts have said he could play shortstop, second base or third base with the potential to be a standout righthanded hitter. The Cardinals worked him out at shortstop last month. Diaz offers the Cardinals potential depth behind Peralta and perhaps another challenger at second base to rookie Kolten Wong. “We believe this is someone who could help us in the future,” Matheny said. Diaz held a workout for several teams in Arizona last month. A scout who attended remarked that Diaz, who had the long layoff from game play, faced live pitching in the workout to show his timing hadn’t faltered. He held a private workout for several teams, including the New York Yankees, in February and, according to MLB.com, with the Cubs last week. Matheny said he was impressed with Diaz’s polish in the private workout. “He’s had a lot of repetitions in this game,” Matheny said. “You could tell. He’s not just one of the raw talents. He’s a guy who has been well-taught. This kid looks like he understands the game.” Matheny described with a scout’s eye what Diaz showed: clean fielding, different arm slot but good power on his throws, and “the ball jumped off his bat.” He added that Diaz’s walk and mannerisms were similar to Yankee captain Derek Jeter’s."

The legitimate data is the fact that 6-7 teams reportedly made actual offers. (By contrast, the Twins were essentially competing with no one for Nishioka). And the fact that the Cardinals guard their last nickels pretty closely. If this was a bidding war worth winning, the Cards provide legitimate data and history as an organization that recognizes and unlocks potential major league talent. And for pre-emptively building potential quality depth at key positions. The cost involved is literally pocket change in MLB terms, without giving up a prospect or hamstringing the team financially, seems well worth the risk entailed in the very modest investment- a 23-year old with a Nick Punto floor- who is major league ready- is pretty enticing when you compare the alternatives currently in the Twins organization.

Unusual? No. Suspicious? Yes.

It is said that necessity is the mother of invention. But desperation is also a great motivator and has been described as the mother of creativity. Thus the Twins have gone to the ends of the Earth- to Europe and Australia, and combed the Indy Leagues, and kicked tires on the reclamation projects- both major and minor league- looking for cut-rate arms that can servicably cut the mustard on the worst starting pitching staff in baseball over the last 3 years. At least TR's desperation hasn't dug the Twins any holes that they cannot extricate themselves from. Benjamin Disraeli has another aspect to the value of desperation: "'Desperation is sometimes as powerful an inspirer as genius." I think the evidence of the pursuit of Nolasco, Hughes, Garza and now Santana, tells me that Ryan holds little assurances that most of the present in-house SP resources hold much to offer over the next 2-3 years. In which case, if true, I'm all for the "inspiration of desperation" to get this club out the rut in how they have assessed, trained, developed and valued their recent pitching options.

I responded to you earilier, but my post got lost in the ozone. Johnson is probably not a bad option to have in the system. But....at what cost? We trade away a veteran starter for a guy soon to turn 30 whose career has been all over the map, literally, when you include going the Indy route, besides. Is this the right move for a rebuilding team, to load up with Colabellos, Thielbars, Hamburgers and Johnsons? Doumit for Gilmartin at least gives you some pedigree, youth and some potential for a decent reward while he's still in his 20s. If the Twins really wanted to have some insurance LHSP depth, why not go after Andy Oliver? Oliver is the guy the Pirates acquired to replace Johnson. He's only 26, also a LHSP, and also a high draft pick with college pedigree- the Twins should have known all about him since they drafted him out of high school...... the difference being, his minor league career shows much more promise than Johnson's..... and his peak years physically are still ahead of him. Oh, and all he cost the Pirates was a disposable minor leaguer.

In 2016, in my scenario, Meyer will already have replaced Pelfrey in 2015, and Gibson would hopefully already be established in the #4 spot before the end of this season, with Berrios ready to replace Hughes at the deadline in his contract expiration year, with May, Gilmartin and Darnell as starting depth. I see a lot of light at the end of this tunnel.

Agreed, in toto. (What color is the moon tonight?)

That's a big caveat, and you can't have an either/or with Pelf and Correia, you're stuck with both. If the team is going to be a contender sooner rather than later, it will be Gibson, and to a sightly lesser extent, Worley, getting big innings this year and seeing if they can establish their full potential going forward. But why not make all of these what-ifs? a lot easier to speculate on by having an established Ace on the staff for the next 3-4 years and move on from Correia (who will be gone no later than the end of the year anyways).

Ideally, the need for another FA SP will diminish greatly if Meyer and Gibson can deliver as promised. A rotation with those 2 plus Santana, Nolasco and Hughes at some point next year, with Correia traded this year and Pelfrey moved in ST 2015.... or shortly thereafter.....looks, potentially, like a very significant upgrade to the last 3+ years. It's hard to imagine that Correia will be around longer than until July of this year.

If this is a serious offer, I'm very pleased. It does beg a few questions: Can a deal of this magnitude be pulled off without TR at 100%? Would they immediately trade Correia and (at least) some of the out-of-options guys? Would they then go all-in and get Drew and/or Morales? And speaking of all-in, would this precipitate they stop messing around and install Hicks, Arcia, Gibson and Pinto on the 25-man roster in April?

You mean for this year? You really don't think that Correia or Pelfrey will be here on April 1, 2016, do you?

Interesting to note that Santana is also reportedly holding out for a 4-year deal instead of 3. This would extend him out to age 34 at the end of the contract. Certainly, if the Twins are serious here, there's room for negotiating around that 4th year. And if the deal were done, it sure makes a lot of sense to move Corriea now and take a shot at signing both Drew and Morales. The season expectations for both this year and next, would turn around on a dime.

Based on the fact that it's the Cardinals, with 6 or 7 other teams hot on his trail with offers, I'll take a wild guess and surmise that Diaz will work out much better than Nishioka did. Folks, this is how you put together REAL "crazy" depth at key positions.

I think it means that the "parade" allegedly starting in 2015 wasn't written down in ink. 2016, 2017, 2018.....your job as a fan is not to question those with superior knowledge about parade-scheduling.

Especially if that other man "treasures" a roster replete with waiver-wire castoffs, career dead-enders, Indy-league refugees and a gaggle of AAAA bodies and "prospects."

Or heightened, depending on your point of view.

Welcome to the dark side....on a provisional basis, of course:s-bluecap:. And look at the bright side of being a dark sider, we might go 4 straight years running all the way to 2018 with bragging rights for the #1 farm system in all of baseball. Yippeee.