jokin

OK, now you've gone and really done it with the comps, Mike... that's just great. "I'll buy you dinner" if Buxton retires at 29, instead of 28 like Robert Smith, to pursue a career in medicine. /

From this point forward, I'm going to use a slash and some sort of tongue in cheek smiley... such as /

That is awesome!

And we both now are on the same page is acknowledging that they're not the same thing, right?

Again, the comment I made was tongue in cheek in response to a poster that suggested it might already be time to move Vargas, when IMO, it clearly is not. I appreciate and can understand your pet peeves in comparing HOFers to prospects. But is comparing a HOF to a prospect now completely disallowed as another "unwritten rule" of baseball, even when it's tongue in cheek?

Again, please re-read what I said carefully.... I said absolutely nothing about "four full MLB years", what I did say was the number of years playing full-time professionally at the same age was "Four", and that his professional PAs was some 1100 more than Vargas at the same age.

This happens every time, and every time comps are made, the person doing the comparing is NOT saying the prospect is going to the Hall, just exploring potential career arcs. No one said Vargas is destined for the HoF, no one. What was said was it would be extremely premature to look to move Vargas out already, based on his current perceived value- reminiscent to what happened with Ortiz- the HoF reference in relation to Vargas, was of course, tongue in cheek, and related to their physical and statistically similar profiles- and just as he's getting his career established and shown glimpses of what's possible.

Yeah, Mike... better go back to bed... you're overthinking this one by a wide degree, and still missing the point. Perhaps you've reached the life stage where "cantankerous old coot " fights for control with "reasoned and seasoned middle-ager" ? You're still my guy, though.

Or- 8. Because there is strong evidence out there that the meme might be true?

"Let's just move along, folks... nothing to see here..." This really sounds like more of their standard routine, ie, Pohlad's "good cop" to Terry's "bad cop".

Regarding Santana, that may have been true of the more casual fan who relied primarily on the stat sheet- but even then, his stats in 2012 and 2013 were pretty darn good for the position and the league he played in, the only real question, which still remains in the air, is whether or not he's sure-handed and consistent enough at the position. And Seth and others who had seen him in person, plus those in the Twins organization who made their opinions known, rated him highly, at the very least as a strong heir-apparent-at-SS candidate. Most of the prospect lists, including Seth's and MLB.com, had him around #12 or #13 on the Twins already-strong prospect lists in the offseason between 2012 and 2013. I was one of those who advocated in giving him a shot to debut in April this year when it became obvious to everyone on the planet except Gardy, that Florimon wasn't going to be physically up to handling the job coming out of ST. That Molitor has already installed Santana at SS going into 2015 is pretty telling that Molitor has done the requisite homework on Danny about "being coached up" over the last few seasons. Regarding Buck, the enthusiasm and potential trade value has been dampened because he appears to be prone to injury. His first priority from this point forward is to remove all doubts about whether or not he can stay consistently healthy and definitively prove that 2014 was an incredible string of bad luck. I think most fans are well-aware that he likely would have been playing in CF for the Twins no later than August 1 if he had not been hurt, even if he had only put up numbers well short of 2013. And though expectations are now tempered a bit, some people forget to take notice that in July Buck showed he was back with a vengeance, OPSing for the month of July in the .900s, before having yet another physical setback towards the end of July (reaching base 7 times in 9 plate appearances in an extra-inning game after being hit by a pitch on his "good" wrist), and then again in August in his first game at AA. I think the dampened expectations will remain true going into 2015, but if he gets off to a start anywhere near to his 2013 stats, or reminiscent of his hot 2014 July, and he stays on the field, health-wise, he will be in CF for the Twins no later than July of 2015.

I think he did, this latest "scoop" was on the Channel 5 evening news this evening at 6PM.

Very true, all you would get in return would be another guy not quite good enough to be a starter, or another Tommy Milone-type SP.

I think you are missing a key point, in that it's difficult to compare their numbers due to Vargas being held back in his development in the minors for many years running. But to compare them more fairly suggests that Vargas has both the hit tool and the power tool to possibly outperform his minor league ratings and the long-term predictions about him. First off, 2013 was Vargas' first year of playing full-time pro ball, while at the same age, Ortiz had already played 4 years of full-time pro ball. Comparing oranges to oranges, Ortiz his 18 HRs in his first full-time year, while Kennys hit 19. Secondly, going on to 2014, Vargas hit 26 HRs- with 9 of those at the major league level. By contrast, Ortiz hit 31 HRs in his second year across three minor league levels, including 4 in the homer-friendly PCL. Perhaps I'm more optimistic than some, but this kid seems eager to learn, appears unflappable after striking out, has no built-in biases against RF in TF, has a great attitude about the game, perhaps a little chip on his shoulder, and he looks like a late bloomer, as well. I'm certainly not predicting a HoF career, but I think he easily could have a breakout year this year, if given the opportunity, and perhaps gets some decent plate protection behind him in the order in the form of Arcia/Plouffe/Sano.

I choose: C) None of the above

Doogie reported (sans a source) that Steinbach would be a likely rehire. I wonder if Terry is waiting on Arizona before committing here?

A lot of strong reasons have been presented for aggressively pursuing the most qualified available talent on the market.

Great post. Esco is exactly the type of guy you want on a team looking to turn the corner. By all accounts, he's been one of the most popular players on this team, as well as in Chicago, and his outstanding play this season will thrust him into more of a role as a leader. He's still very young, the Twins have four more years of cost control, and he still won't have hit the age of 30. I looked it up the numbers this year and was pleasantly surprised how well Esco did with respect to his peers, in comps combining offense and defense, Esco's numbers actually compared favorably to Starlin Castro (@$8M AAV) and Jose Reyes ($16M). Until things shake out more definitively with the prospects, Esco is the perfect guy in the UTIL role.

I think most realistic fans acknowledge that both players are beyond a usual top prospect, more like SPECIAL TALENTS who could become ELITE STARS. In my mind that translates to guys you only consider trading for premier major league talent.

Heh. And this HoF discussion, I thought was rather obvious, has never, and could never, involve Arcia.

Let's be totally accurate here, the differences aren't that stark at all, and look pretty encouraging given that Ortiz had more than 1000 more PAs at all levels by the same age: Through age 24, here are the MLB numbers: Ortiz: 397 PAs 10 HR Slash .271/.360/.426/.786 OPS+ 109 ISO 155 wRC+ 102 Vargas: 234 PAs 9 HR Slash .274/.316/.452/.772 OPS+ 115 ISO 181 wRC+ 114 Ortiz had a slightly higher BABIP and a slightly lower K%.

I don't think so... they're rated very high for multiple good reasons beyond box scores.

That's just it, a trade shouldn't be made with trepidation, but with conviction that the trade-offs of a trade will end up as a net positive... trading one future HOFer doesn't look good on your resume, especially with the now-documented history in how that star's abilities were mishandled or unrecognized. It would be a shame to go down that road, yet again.

Spycake dished out some of the pertinent stats to counter your conclusion. The bottom line is that Ortiz's career began with multiple fits and starts. And that every player develops on a different learning curve. And that Vargas' first 4 years in the minors were extremely abbreviated- he hadn't come anywhere near getting the requisite reps to refine his approach at the plate, especially considering that he is a switch-hitter. (Through age 23, Ortiz had over 1000 more MiL PAs.... ~2200 MiL PAs vs. 1187 for Vargas) I think one should be very wary in going on record in diminishing Vargas' power potential going forward.