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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Rick Hahn is the only one talking, he just said 90 wins was his goal. Just off of 2014 WAR, the Sox potentially improved by 4.1 in LF by removing Viciedo and his -1.0 WAR and adding Melky's 3.1 WAR. LaRoche had 2.2 WAR- vs. practically 0 WAR from Konerko and Dunn combined, maintaining that production, and moving Abreu off of 1B for a big chunk of games could mean a net increase of 3 WAR. The 3 additional RPs all replaced negative WAR RP arms, look for a possible 3-4 WAR increase there, and it could be worth more than the WAR numbers if the additions can hold leads better, which is a fair bet. Finally, Shark's 3.7 WAR is replacing Bassit at 0.3 WAR. That's a potential 14 WIN improvement, right there. Now add in potential improvements from their young players who are still on the upswing (ie, Steamer projects Garcia to improve by 1.5 fWAR), Adam Eaton and Chris Sale staying healthy all season, a possible solid contribution from rookie Rodon, and maybe Johnson, and the fact that Hahn says he isn't done making improvements, finding 3-5 more wins doesn't seem impossible to imagine. I'm not saying it's going to happen, lots of things would have to fall in place just right, but there is a rationale for this roster construction.
  2. jokin
    Uhh, it's almost universally acknowledged that the Sox are one of the most improved teams in the offseason, many say the most improved. With their core group of mid-20s talent, they've now added key pieces that have upgraded major holes. You talk about the Sox defensive shortcomings in the OF- but they actually improved their lot by putting the Melkman in LF. Melky's 30, Hunter will soon be 40. The Twins still don't know who the CF will be, and by all accounts, Arcia will be a disaster in LF. We need to face it, the Twins FO has all but admitted that they are playing the patient/punt approach on 2015, they only added one decent SP- giving them two, but it seems to be positioning for 2016, not 2015. The Sox already had two very good SPs, now they got a 3rd. And unlike the Sox, the Twins have added no help in the bullpen, and only one incremental improvement from one bat- in contrast, the Sox have added a major offensive upgrade in LF, and a significant upgrade at 1B/DH. These moves have positioned the top 5 in the order in a way that could be very productive in 2015, on paper it looks like Eaton/Melky/Abreu/LaRoche/Garcia would be a more productive than say, one Twins potential lineup of Santana/Dozier/Mauer/Hunter/Arcia.
  3. jokin
    Yeah, my mistake. I was trying to answer your charge that he was only a DH, in which case, he would have had the 4th best OPS among all DH-only guys. But he will likely play more 1B than DH. Whatever the case, he was the best quality guy available in Free Agency at the position, had significant playoff experience, and also filled the hole the Sox had with the lack of a big producing LH bat. You can argue that they should have tried to trade with Colorado for Morneau, instead, maybe they did, but the Rockies were asking too much.... but regardless, they had the money, and they filled the need, and only committed to two years... Possibly a slight overpay, but I don't get why this is much of a problem with a team really going for it this year and next.
  4. jokin
    You're all over the map here. First you have been saying over and over that Shark will probably get less than 20M/year. Now you're saying he'll be close to Lester. $5M-6M/year is a big difference, and this is one case where the home discount + win-now! pitch should really come into play. And finally, a point of agreement, Lester is better than Shark, you know it, I know it, and most importantly, the Cubs know it.
  5. jokin
    I seem to recall you were saying that the Sox were going to, along with Semien, probably empty their farm system of a couple of their Top Five prospects- and cripple the franchise going forward with this move. Exactly the opposite happened. The A's didn't sign Shark because they can't afford it. The Cubs signed Lester instead, because they can afford it.
  6. jokin
    At 1B== 4th in OPS. 8th in wOBA. 9th in wRC+. And look for LaRoche's HR totals to go up in 2015, balls fly out of US Cellular at a 45% higher rate than Nationals Park (which was the 2nd lowest park in terms of HR output).
  7. jokin
    No one else has come close to Bautista in TF, except for Thome. As far as the White Sox pitching and Melky, here's a link to the MLB team pitching numbers, since Melky entered the major leagues in 2005, or, the last 10 years... note that the White Sox are rated the #1MLB pitching team in terms of WAR over the last 10 years, so it's easy to conjecture that Rick Hahn surmised that the White Sox pitching has less to do with Melky's hitting prowess at US Cellular than the stadium itself: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  8. jokin
    Melky had better numbers this year than "the year prior" that you refer to (and a better ISO). You may as well argue that he's used PEDs in 2014, as well. And then you used Viciedo as an example why Cabrera would fail, even though Viciedo had his two best years between 30 and 32- the exact time frame for Melky's contract with the White Sox. The contract is from ages 30-32, not 33. Melky has the highest BA among LF over the last 4 years and the 4th most hits. Defensively, he also has the 3rd highest ARM rating, both last year, and over the last 4 yeas, for LFers. 147 PAs at US Cellular, not enough to say he'll duplicate those career numbers, but more than enough to suggest that he tends to do well there. Jose Bautista obviously likes Target Field, and he has less than half of the PAs that Melky has at US Cellular- his numbers in Chicago played a part in Hahn offering Melky the contract.
  9. jokin
    Thankyou. By all accounts from the experts, LaRoche is a very competent 1st baseman.
  10. jokin
    I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014. That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's. Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time. 4-year stats- K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20 ERA+ 220
  11. jokin
    It was 4 years/$46M for Roberston. And yet with all of that money, their payroll has only gone up, net-net around $25M. From around $90M to $115M. Melky doesn't have the potential to be a star? We may have different interpretations, but anybody that gets an 8-figure AAV contract is, would seem to be, by definition, a baseball star. Shark is likely worth the extension- that's the going rate for #1s and #2s, the Shark is very durable. And in IMO, you worry far too much about the $60M on five players- the vast majority of their players are cost controlled, rising players. Ramirez will likely come off the books soon, maybe after this year. The Sox went out over the last two years and bought a set of complementary quality players to build around Chris Sale in his peak production, late-20s seasons (He's a FA in 2018). You have to strike while the iron is hot, it costs money to do so.
  12. jokin
    I'm guessing that LaRoche is going to play a ton of games, probably the majority of his games at 1st, not DH. The Sox didn't need a platoon player, they needed an experienced LH bat to break up their heavy RH tendency in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche also has 4 years of postseason experience. Did they overpay? Maybe a little, but he is by far the best FA option that met all of the criteria the Sox needed, plus it's only a 2 year deal, and he definitely isn't an Adam Dunn rerun.
  13. jokin
    Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year. Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now. Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's. Victorino 26-29 .281/.346/.437/.793 wRC+ 106 Cabrera 26-29 .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122 And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between. Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework? Melky's career numbers in US Cellular- .336/.366/.591/.957
  14. jokin
    I don't have a problem with either May or Meyer using that spot as a temporary steppingstone, but I get what you mean. It isn't easy to break into a starting rotation and stick, the Twins just made it harder for May, Meyer (and Berrios in the short run) to do so. Hopefully at least one, and better all three, rise to the challenge and force the issue. The competition for starting jobs has an additional benefit, as it has the potential to make Nolasco, Gibson and Milone better performers.
  15. jokin
    We can all dream the dream, can't we?
  16. jokin
    As I posted elsewhere, with the signing of Santana, the Twins are now very near the point of never having to look at AAAA types or fringe starters being the back-end rotation guys- or first names on the depth chart. Besides May and Meyer, who should get good looks for the last spot in the rotation and/or in long relief, a good first-half by Berrios, and he's also right in the mix for a spot by the end of July.
  17. jokin
    With the Santana signing, we're finally very, very close to moving away, for good, from any starts from AAAA types or fringe starters. Besides May and Meyer, a strong first half by Berrios in AA and/or AAA puts him right in the middle of the fight for a rotation spot. This kid is driven to greatness like no other Twins pitcher in recent memory.
  18. jokin
    I'm wondering if there IS anything wrong with Chattanooga. The Dodgers seemed to have left due to them purchasing the AAA team in Oklahoma City, and finding it convenient to put their AA team close by in Tulsa. Easy connections to anywhere thru Atlanta, plus direct flights to FL, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Washington. The weather has to be much better than New Britain was, and seriously, the whole situation in Connecticut seemed a bit muddled, probably good to get out when they had the chance to do so. The Chattanooga stadium is only 14 years old. And particularly for the managers, coaches and support staff, Tennessee has no state income tax.
  19. jokin
    Dozier, Arcia, Mauer, Vargas, Pinto, Sano;;;; "DA MVPS"
  20. jokin
    How about Plouffe, Polanco and Pinto?
  21. jokin
    The addition looks to be greater than the sum of the parts, offensively, anyway. Pencil Cabrera into the #2 spot in the lineup directly in front of Abreu and LaRoche. Cabrea's OBP was .351 last year. His OBP is also .351 over the last four years. By comparison, the Sox OBP in the #2 spot was only .279 in 2014. Add Eaton and his 2014 .362 OBP in the leadoff spot, and those are two OFers who are going to do serious damage at the top of the order batting in front of the big boppers. Abreu had 107 RBIs last year, good for 4th best, even though he was ranked 36th in PAs w/RISP, look for him to have the chance to actually improve on his 2014 overall numbers. Avisail Garcia in RF is predicted by Steamer to have a big uptick in production in 2015 (as is Oswaldo Arcia, and they're both about the same age, at 23). There are multiple reports that Viciedo is already on the trading block.
  22. jokin
    This is what can be done with only ~$25M increase in team payroll:
  23. jokin
    Hahn reflection on the week that was (Sox added elite RHSP, dominant Closer, LF premier bat, LHRP, back-up Catcher): This is what commitment to winning looks like.
  24. jokin
    Actually, the wife is a clinical psychologist and practices in Miami, which is also Dougie's hometown. He also has been dealing with both his mother's cancer battle and mother-in-law's terminal illness, although I haven't read any updates on those situations, of late. Losing or keeping Jeff Smith shouldn't factor much into this equation, there are plenty of retired MN Twins players on Terry Ryan's speed-dial that could be plugged in at a moment's notice- and Gene Glynn and Neal Allen can recommend plenty of Rays personnel looking for a change- I'm surprised Bartlett hasn't already gotten a call- I think he still lives in Ft Myers.
  25. jokin
    Not that much age in this lineup, all things considered. They have a good chance to extend Shark, plus, they have a Top 100 SS coming up soon to replace Ramirez, plus a good young 2nd baseman. I'm wondering, even after all of these moves, if the Twins average age is still higher than the Sox?
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