jokin

Twins OF Range Runs -36.3 (29th place) Twins OF Def Runs Svd -50 (Last place)

Team BABIP .315 (highest in baseball) Team FB% 36.8% (5th highest) Not a healthy combination going forward

Really, that goes even more for three of the other 5 "sure things" in the pen. It's a headscratcher that Duensing was deemed worthy to bring back. Do you really pay that much to a guy who's value has effectively been reduced to LOOGY? w/RISP- .881 OPS .374 wOBA HiLevge- .853 OPS .366 wOBA T-Bar?- The Twins were fooled by his numbers in 2013- a sparkling 1.75 ERA was artificially pumped up by an unholy .175 BABIP and unrealistic 83.3% strand rate. He saw a 1+ MPH drop in velocity in 2014 and didn't miss many bats, which produced a 40% increase in his LD%, a contact rate that jumped from 76.6% to 86.7%, and a Swinging Strike rate that fell nearly in half. plus a BA that zoomed up from .153 in 2013 to .270. Stauffer?- The dreaded NL pitcher coming from a pitcher's ballpark and who only threw in low leverage situations. Hopefully, they won't be around for long as better RP options force their way onto the 25-man roster sooner rather than later.

I'm not changing the conversation at all, in point of fact, it was a key point that I brought up in my opening post to begin this discussion. Like with pitchers in the past, Ryan's defense of his projected OF was an embarrassment. Plan A has failed spectacularly two years in a row. And it's not limited to the offensive production. When it comes to CF defense, Santana, a complete newbie in CF, and close to the same number of innings in CF, had virtually the same DEF, UZR and UZR/150. Santana actually had 0 DRS, while HIcks was -3. Santana had a defensive WAR ranking of 0.4, while HIcks graded out at -0.2. Regarding the proof that the OF defense was a major sore spot, I think we've been fleshing it out all offseason through the 2014 statistics, there was definitely some cause and effect between runs allowed and pretty all-around lousy OF defense. This hasn't been adequately addressed by Terry Ryan.

If the musical chairs in CF in 2014, ending up with a SS playing the position isn't enough evidence, the Terry Ryan press conference in welcoming back Torii Hunter and explaining how he analyzes defense should tell you all you need to know about the Twins and their "skeptical" view of the likely prospect of the Twins having the MLB's worst OF defense in 2015.

But how do we know if the position was in fact, filled? Not like there's a ton of transparency or "pitch-tipping" concerning developments of this Twins strategic division of their operation.

Thanks for doing all the work, so I didn't have to...

Interesting and comprehensive study of all 122 teams in the four major team sports, ESPN "unleashed our experts and an army of researchers to rate 122 teams on the strength of each franchise's analytics staff, its buy-in from execs and coaches, its investment in biometric data and how much its approach is predicated on analytics." No surprise here.... The Twins didn't fare too well in the analysis- labeled as "skeptics" (seems about right to me, the Twins were whacked on lack of Ks, but they really were just as vulnerable to an attack on the planned 2015 OF, but ESPN let them off easy in that case), but hey, at least they were not in the Bottom Ten. Here's the overall baseball-only list: ALL-IN Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Indians Houston Astros New York Yankees Oakland A's Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays BELIEVERS Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals ONE FOOT IN Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers SKEPTICS Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins NONBELIEVERS Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies Here are the baseball teams in the overall Top Ten ( some surprises): # 2 Houston # 4 Tampa Bay # 5 Boston # 6 New York Yankees # 9 Oakland Here are the baseball teams in the overall Bottom Ten: # 115 Miami # 122 Philadelphia

I only base the third pitch situation on the few reports and my own personal observations. In the game I saw, he missed most frequently (on a percentage basis) with the change, as it was all over the place. Perhaps it was a lack of confidence on throwing it for a strike, perhaps he hasn't yet perfected the grip, motion and/or release, but it clearly was still a work in progress. The good news is that when it was working it was coming to the batter at around 74-77 MPH, a full 20 MPH less than his usual FB. It will be devastating once he masters it. The FB did sail or tail on him at times, but he quickly made adjustments in the following inning. The other thing I noticed was the big pitch count innings came against primarily a RH heavy lineup. Not that the RH hitters were doing much damage, it was just that, along with some occasional wildness, they were seemingly able to foul off pitch after pitch before Meyer could put them away. Meyer's career splits indicate he does well overall against RHers- low OPS, lots of weakly hit fly balls and more ground balls, but his K rate is about 25% less than versus LHers. I don't exactly know the reason from just watching him throw once, but you would think that eventually that slider, with a more effective third pitch will help to lower his pitch count problems versus righties.

And he probably also disappointed the scouts by scoring much better at Madden NFL 15?

Heh, heh. I forgot to include in my post turning triples into HRs. Thanks for picking me up.

For a guy with this once-in-a-lifetime-prospect speed, it's all about the OBP. Turning doubles into triples, turning walks and singles into doubles, turning GB outs into infield hits. Let the HRs come when they come. I predict he will end up hitting 20-30 HR/yr as he passes through his mid-20s.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w94/PlatinumCT/SeizeTheOpportunity.jpg

* I was extremely careful to qualify my comparison of Meyer to Johnson. There was NO HOF-bound prediction on my part for Meyer- quite the opposite ("has a chance to become a #1/#2 starter") and I tried to fully acknowledge that Johnson was a one-off freak of nature. But it's being obtuse in the extreme to ignore the fact that there is a long list of similarities with which to make a developmental comparison- starting with both being a 6'9" flamethrower, and Meyer's building off of a better base in terms of control. Of the top three pitching prospects, based on the combination of performance and current tools, at this point of time (and subject to change), Meyer has the best chance in becoming an Ace. ** I think it's fair to say you generally mis-characterized what the strategy was and what was accomplished by Meyer and the Twins in 2014, when in point of fact, the stated strategy #1 goal was focused particularly on getting Meyer through a healthy complete year along with continued development of his third pitch (the pitch which accounted for much of his command/control issues). *** As I said in my post, the jump to AA is the most difficult. If Berrios continues his 2014 trajectory, I'll be happy to move him above Meyer- especially if Meyer regresses. The problems for Berrios are curiously similar to Meyer, but at the other end of the tape measure, as there are also few examples of shorter-statured SP aces. And though I know we both agree that they are close in their prospect status, without a decent amount of data in the upper minors, Meyer deserves the nod.

Comparison of Meyer to Johnson minor league stats to the exact same age (Meyer 3 years/Johnson 4 years). Does Meyer's control, relatively speaking, really suck? (remember, he was adding a new pitch in 2014):: Meyer IP 363.2 ERA 3.14 WHIP 1.232 H/9 7.4 BB/9 3.7 K/9 10.4 BB/K 2.84 Johnson IP 400.1 ERA 3.57 WHIP 1.551 H/9 6.8 BB/9 7.14 K/9 9.6 BB/K 1.35 MLB.com has the Twins 3 SP prospects bunched together, but I think close to just about right, Meyer is listed in the top 10 RH prospects and grades out just above Stewart and Berrios. Also note that Meyer has not one, but two out pitches that outrank either of Stewart's or Berrios' top two pitches: Meyer- rank 29 FB 70 SL 65 CU 50 Overall 60 Berrios- rank 32 FB 60 CB 55 CU 55 Overall 55 Stewart-rank 36 FB 65 SL 60 CB 50 CU 50 Overall 55 http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=prospects

I never talked about PEDs, both of these vices inevitably lead to tainting the game. The MLB has a lot to account for in their past hypocrisies on the PED front. But you are fooling yourself if you don't see that a manager gambling on his own team is fraught with dangers- "alignment-wise".... in point of fact, Pete the manager betting on his team to win in isolation is quite different than Pete the manager sometimes betting to win and Pete the manager taking nights off from a wager- the two Pete's actions in the latter case are inevitably and inextricably intertwined, and can only lead to threatening the integrity of the game. And then the inevitable outside forces come in, as they always do, and lead to compromising the guilty parties who get in too deep, no matter which side of the bet they are on. The game almost went under in the wake of the 1919 World Series, the point-shaving scandal of NCAA basketball games in the 50s sidetracked the growth of that sport for many years afterwards.... any hint of proof that the outcome of each and every individual game is being manipulated, and not an honest result, would prove to be disastrous for both the gambling industry and baseball.

3 levels, yes, but let's not pretend that Berrios has even mastered AA yet. Of his 140 IP in 2014, only around 40 of those were in the upper minors, and just the one game/ 3 IP in AAA. And quite frankly, his numbers in the upper minors were much less impressive, ie, his K/9 dropped from 10.20 in A+ ball to 6.20 in AA. I expect he will do well this season, but let's not start organizing around the exact date-certain for the Berrios parade from Twin Cities International to Target Field quite yet.

Really? Rose was betting on games as the manager of his team. A powerful position to control the course of the game. But it's never been shown that he bet on every single game or how the odds or his dollar amounts changed from game to game. Which opens up all kinds of possibilities for player and in-game strategic manipulations, consciously or unconsciously, to skew the outcomes of games, both those with and without a bet placed by him. And not only that, suppose underworld types learned of Rose's gambling habits, and found ways to "put the squeeze" on him?

Time to disabuse ourselves of the notion that the past culture will carry over too much. I have a feeling that the days of the default Gardy batting order "strategies" are a thing of the past. I expect data-based decision-making regarding the lineup from this day forward.

Yeah, I'm all over the Rosario-seizing-the-opportunity scenario. I have little hope, and I hope Molitor has little patience, in what promises to be a train wreck in the OF. Rosario's strong fall AFL performance could be the jumping-off point for a great career leap forward in 2015. Rosario has historically been a fast starter in his minor league career. His lifetime MiLB split in April is .337/.406/..508/.914. Rosario has the chance to leave a strong impression in ST- couple that with a break-out start in Chattanooga and the strong likelihood of moribund performance in CF, or even at one of the corners- and Rosario could punch his MLB ticket like Santana did last year.

Concur, strongly. Nothing convincing has been written in the Berrios and Stewart write-ups that makes either Stewart or Berrios appear to have earned them the better chance to be an Ace over Meyer. Their relative youth seems to be the main supporting plank in vaulting them ahead of Meyer. Nick's mention of Willie Banks, the former 1st round, #3 pick, once ranked as Baseball America's #13 prospect, should be the operative cautionary tale here. Banks dominated the minors until he reached AA. Stewart may be close in raw talent to Meyer, but he also has yet to dominate above Rookie League, and he seems to have more issues to overcome than Meyer (health, arm strength, lack of experience, attitude). Berrios has the potential problems that come with obvious physical size disadvantages. Moreover, he has yet to prove to be a dominant pitcher above A+ ball. It would be awesome if Berrios gets the call to the Twins by July, but he's not even on the 40-man yet, and still has a high hurdle to climb in Chattanooga, let alone to leap over all the other pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart. While they both have tremendous potential- (and not to say that I don't love them as prospects... and in 2015 they may yet prove to surpass Meyer's potential)- to place both higher than Meyer at this point is still a speculative bet on the come. FWIW, while no one should say that Meyer is destined for Randy Johnson's career, but his comparable numbers at the exact same age to Johnson, to the same point in his career, are far superior. With the likelihood of some continued sharpening of consistency of his release point, and further refining of his third pitch, both in the offing (and hopefully a new pitching coach will accelerate that developmental continuum), it is quite reasonable to say that Meyer has clearly shown he could eventually become a #1/#2 SP. In summation, as exciting as they both are, the definitive argument has yet to be made that the other two are, in fact, superior prospects to Meyer.

I've got a guy you definitely need to Friend: http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=1891176

In the game I saw on August 3rd, it appeared he was guiding (and tipping?) the change-up- definitely a work in progress. But when he had a couple of long innings, it looked like the FB would sail on him- up or out of the zone- his delivery looks very smooth on both the slider and FB, but perhaps the control lapses are due to the varying release point? It looked like he was getting pinched by the ump on the slider, it looked like a devastating pitch from behind home plate. After the first of the long innings, he came back the next inning and was unhittable, hitting 99 MPH effortlessly a couple times, throwing almost nothing but strikes. He was automatically pulled at around 90 pitches, with 2 outs in the 6th, but he never looked in trouble, winded, sore-armed, sore-shouldered. Just a couple fits of lack of control. For the game, he had 8Ks, 3BBs, 2 weakly hit singles. As I said at the time, he was a man amongst boys.

Where's Chief when we need him? "A little higher?" Isn't a 2 game jump in the line in just one week a bit of an anomaly? This does seem to be a better reflection of reality. Isn't this indicative of quite a LOT of money coming in on the positive side? Still, this number only represents the exact same number as Vegas had for the Twins last year- implying that 70-71 is now even more established as the inflection point for maybe better times ahead, the only question being if it's this year, 2016 or 2017, when the nightmare of the decade so far is finally in the rearview mirror.

....or drop down to #5 in the rankings.