jokin

Not Trout's numbers (Trout had 2 trips to AA), but Buxton's line in his last 200 PAs is: .309/.375/.537/(.912) wRC+ 155 wOBA .410 These are video game numbers. You really have to throw out everything on Buck's 2015 numbers before April 27. Buck was coming off of wrist injuries to both hands, another hand injury that required surgery, plus a severe concussion in 2014. Even with the slow start included in his numbers, he is #1, or near the top, in the Southern League in PAs/Runs/Hits/Triples/RBI/SB/SLG/OPS. Given that, and his elite-level defense in CF, I would say Buck is showing a remarkable amount of aggressiveness in forcing the issue.

The Super 2 date has in all likelihood already passed- probably with 99.99% certainty. Although your post-ASG debut is certainly plausible, the Twins might want to have him debut in Target Field- and there is the Futures Game to consider. First post-ASG home game is not until July 24 vs. the Yankees. They probably have that series sold out already, so perhaps if the Futures Game is not a priority, a pre-ASG debut at Target on July 6 vs. the Orioles, July 9 vs. the Tigers, is a possibility, as well. And it's also possible that he has a cup of coffee in Rochester before a call-up.

If and until he can get on a sustained run like last night... Yes, yes you are.

Yep. Jim and I noted the same type of scenario upthread. And you're absolutely right, if handled with careful thought, the "sacrifice" in the field is actually minimal. And really, is there still doubt that he couldn't play RF better than Arcia, on a part-time basis, if the Twins were to choose to go that route? This really shouldn't be that difficult of a decision.

The "fragile flowers" comment refers to the constant worry on TD by relating everything back to the Aaron Hicks "called up too soon" debacle. Santana was called up last year with the same types of pressure as Hicks and yet had a sustained run of outstanding production. Neither Santana or Hicks are the types of prospects that Sano and Buxton are. But the Twins didn't know for sure on either Hicks or Santana until they threw them in the deep end of the pool. And when using comps with elite top prospects, inevitably, some comps will be from other players who were previously elite top prospects. Only a few of the comps in this thread were from HOFers. When the comparable MiLB numbers compare favorably for Sano and Buxton relative to other elite prospects, that's the only data we can work from. But on using those comparisons as a tool and a guide, I don't believe anyone is claiming that either of them are guaranteed to duplicate their respective rookie season comps, let alone other elite prospects' HOF careers. But rather, to recognize that Sano and Buxton are hands down the most talented position players in the entire Twins system. (Based on this comment of yours: "There are tons of people that look really good in the minors."... you seem to be in the small minority who still think that either or both retain a relatively high probability of bust. Most professional analysts agree that the floor is much higher than that). And at this point given the Twins current situation, every wide latitude towards an early opportunity to make good on that universally-accepted (and demonstrated) evaluation of their talent, needs to be considered as the possible best difference-making decision for a club still in the midst of a pennant race.

Vargas went down for reasons that those on the outside will never know for certain. It was an obviously odd move at the time, and by exposing the glaring lack of offensive depth in the wake of the move, only served to magnify how unsustainable the winning ways will be by maintaining the status quo. Interesting that you fully embrace a small sample on Vargas, but dismiss a much larger sample from the much better prospect. I think the proponents for Sano, fully accept the "development for win now" sacrfice. I don't see the issue in what significantly more development will be gained by keeping Sano down for much longer, but I do see the potential opportunity cost in not doing so, for the Twins as a team. The Twins are in the midst of a cruel June, even if/when the hitting turns around a bit, there's no guarantee the recent level of performance from the SP staff can be maintained. Waiting to promote August 1 may be too late.

I don't know the data, but I'd move him up into that leadoff spot just as soon as there is a decent likelihood that he could handle it. For me, that time is now, for Doc, and not necessarily speaking for him, perhaps a couple of games or a week or two's worth might be what he's thinking.

Defending Doc here, I don't believe he advocated immediate placement of Buck into the leadoff spot. The ideal scenario would be that he "grabs it" after acclimating to big league pitching, presumably from the 9 hole.

I'm with you, except that Rosario's speed does not equal Santana's.

It looks like Oliveros is the new Hamburger. He's clearly well down the Twins RP depth chart- it seems that the impression he left last fall in his major league stint has long carryover value. I'm guessing he'll opt for free agency to see if he has a better shot at a major league roster somewhere else in 2016.

Yep. I would have started a "Byron Buxton How Soon Is Now?" thread, except I generally assumed that that was obvious (based on the dissension to that premise in the major league thread... and I guess in this thread, seems I was mistaken). Here's his slash line over his last 200 PAs (April 27- 45 games): .309/.375/.537/(.912) wOBA .410 And besides being back to putting up video game-like numbers, he's been fully healthy at the top of the order, playing in all but one game for Chattanooga. On this one, there's no Trevor Plouffe/Joe Mauer/Torii Hunter blockage questions.... So... What's holding this one up?

Except it's actually been more than "a few weeks". It's now going into its 7th week- some 151 PAs. Here's the updated slash line update from April 30 through June 11: .302/.384/.574/(.938) ISO .272 BB% 12% K% 23% wOBA .429 The ISO is the only number slightly below career norms, but he's a qualitatively better hitter overall vs. 2013, even using the full season stats. And again, when can we stop with the HOF strawmen arguments? It seems only in Minnesota would many continue to think that the #1 and #6 prospects are such fragile little flowers who might permanently wilt- the Twins FO is actually believing they're closer to being ready than many on TD. Sano was a SS coming up, he's as athletic as an oversized 22 year old baseball player can possibly be. He doesn't have Aaron Hicks' delicate psyche. He's demonstrably overcome much of the rust from the 18 month layoff. Time to find out if he's ready for the next step, there really is no downside to him DHing and playing occasionally at 3rd- give him a shot for 15 days and then re-evaluate.

No way to state that with certainty. Based on the eye test, he's never impressed me as being better than "most CF on FBs over his head", but he's certainly better than most other recent Twins CFers, for sure! And again, he's not nearly as good as Buxton in this area.

Already discussed Pujols upthread. Pujols was promoted after stints at A, A+ and then a very brief stay at AAA, all in one season, Sano has produced equivalent or superior numbers at the first two levels. Only way to find out for sure one way or another if Sano is ready, is to get him up to the Twins.

Yes. this ability is one of the chief criteria in separating the mediocre and good CFs from the elite ones. Buxton has it, Hicks, not so much.

After tonight, Buxton actually has a .274/.340/.475 (.815) line for the season. That tells me a lot, they certainly are not "low numbers", but actually near the top for all SL OFers. Besides that, you need to throw out much of the April numbers, as Buxton was overcoming rust and pain from a lost 2014 season and multiple injuries. From 4/9 to 4/26, Buxton's line was: .192/.254/.345/(.599) From 4/27 through 6/10 (nearly 200 PAs): .302/.377/.523/(.900) These numbers are elite, and more like Buxton's potential hit tool going forward, plus he immediately provides the additional benefit of adding an instant elite defender as he makes the adjustment to big league pitching. No one says it's going to be an easy conversion to big league pitching, but have you got a better potential in-house offensive option besides Sano, who went through a similar hitting metamorphosis to Buxton? The numbers you tout for Hicks were after two major league failures, and on his 3rd trip to AAA, along with 2 stops at AA. Buxton aint Hicks- as much as Hicks looks better at the plate right now, it's hard to imagine that Buxton, who ZiPS projects at 95 OPS+, wouldn't be able to beat Hicks' OPS+ number of 74 and provide better defense besides.

I think it's time to worry just a little on the prospect that Fien is 100% healthy. Molitor seems pretty hesitant to use him since he's returned, despite numerous 8th inning situations. I'm also kind of surprised that the Twins weren't more interested in taking a real shot at Rafael Soriano (who signed a minor league/incentive-based contract with the Cubs yesterday). Ryan loves vets and he had the Ervin Santana free money still in the budget.

74 OPS+ (by Hicks) is certainly not competent enough. Pinto is an absolute mess right now (.123/.167/.263 in his last 60 PAs). Buxton, Polanco and Sano are the best in-house options that have the best possibility to make a difference. Weiters or Lucroy could probably be had if Terry were willing to pony up and pull the trigger.

Step One in the repair process. Why did the team need to be held up for this long just to give Stauffer the extra severance pay? Why do the Twins still need 13 pitchers with the offense still on "HOLD"?

Funny... I can't recall one poster talking about "guarantees" or "saviors" currently in Tennessee, or even Rochester ... (but I do recall many that noticed that they have more talented players than Robinson, Bernier, Schafer, Stauffer, Boyer, etc. YES... all many are simply asking is just to play the percentages and put the best team on the field--- For example... Intentionally crippling your offense by sending down players when they're on a .950 OPS hitting run is what many would define as idiotic. Carrying 13 pitchers, at least two of whom, who can't get anyone out, plus another Rule 5 guy, instead of at least 3 different players who can actually help to win a ballgame, many would define as not smart... not having a good RHPH available for a rookie LH vs a top LHRP with the game on the line, many would define as not smart... )

Hicks has really bought time for Buxton to continue to get his groove back and stabilized the OF defense. He has improved defensively at nearly every facet, but his reads and routes for balls over his head still leave something to be desired.

Theo Epstein is in charge now, anything before him is pretty irrelevant by comparison, even stated in jest.

I have been extremely pleased with Hicks 3.0. The Twins had the exact right plan for him this year- I'm gratified they finally listened to all of us sideline GMs, after two seasons of "the kindest thing to do for him is to kill him to take him out of his misery" level of futility . He looks much more relaxed and he looks much more like a major leaguer both at the plate and in the OF. Regarding his routes, he's always been pretty good at most anything in front of him (with an occasional exception of letting the ball play him, as you mentioned), but no question, his new level of confidence and solid fundamentals has yielded even better results in that regard this year. And no question, he's got a powerful cannon for an arm. I still see him a little hesitant at being willing to take complete charge over whomever is flanking him. This is a bit understandable in RF, what with his idol and mentor out there, but he never should defer to the LF, or when someone else is playing in RF. And the biggest problem in CF is still his judgement, jumps and routes to anything hit over his head. We seem to be in agreement about Hicks as potentially an ideal 4th OF. If he can embrace the role, it would make for an outstanding alignment in all 3 OF spots in certain situations, something to think about, especially when the heavy FB guys like Hughes, May and Nolasco are on the mound.

Santana has already responded to the challenge. 4-5 today with a double.

Hopefully, Santana has gotten the message- 4-5 today.