jokin

And don't get me wrong, this is what I want, too. I'm just doubting that the Twins FO is ready to pull the trigger.

You missed this quote, just above: This is Arcia's third year and multiple trips back and forth from AAA. The Twins probably have plenty of data on Arcia's readiness based on his AAA PAs, not just the last 3 games.

Except for Rosario and Santana

LaVelle stuck around the visiting clubhouse to give out this small tidbit. The Twins FO does love a little overnight intrigue, don't they?:

Huh?

For the Twins definitely not unprecedented... Hicks. I guess Vargas is moving down to Hicks prospect status now. Give it another year, and odds are he gets "Ortized."

Arcia's bat has finally come to life...

Chicks dig the long ball, is the same true of GMs and Managers?

Arcia is now 4-5 on the day. In two weeks he's raised his AAA BA from .196 to .255 and his OPS from .481 to .676. Arcia looks like he might be getting the nod here.

Arcia is currently 3-4 with a HR at Rochester, and the bat has shown signs of life of late, 7-12 in his last 3 games. Hicks also had 3 hits today. Gotta think the Twins track record suggests one of them will get the nod, Vargas going to AA instead of AAA seems to make it more likely that Sano will soon be swinging in Rochester.

So Vargas has been demoted to AA, 3B Wheeler has been released at AAA, and Sano appears to be out of the lineuup at Chattanooga. The Twins are facing their biggest series of the year, back in the AL Central and Kansas City. Who knows what the next move is? Well, apparently it's nobody in the Twins dugout in Cincy, the beat writers are stumped:

All entirely valid. It's way too soon for those who are climbing on the bandwagon of suddenly "usable major league power." But what the biggest outlier of all for Walker is, particularly in the face of this accelerated K percentage (June vs. April/May this year, plus 2015 versus all previous seasons), is his huge spike in his HR frequency per AB. And this has come after promotion to the level that most regard as the toughest jump, and the level where all the best pitching prospects usually come from, and where the big separation starts from between prospects and suspects. Walker's current 2015 AB/HR number is 11.7 and in June it's a Barry Bonds-like, 9.54. In checking back in recent Southern League home run leaders, Paul Goldschmitt had 30 HR in 2011, with a AB/HR of 12.2... but his plate discipline was outstanding. Neftali Soto also had 30 HR that year in the same league, and had a AB/HR of 12.63, but his plate discipline profile was much more similar ( but still far better- K% 23.2% BB% 6%) to Walker's. And look at how Soto's MLB career has fizzled. Speaking of what is, and isn't translatable at the major league level to what Walker's doing this year: Giancarlo Stanton is the closest comp I could find for having a similar season at the major league level in 2015. His AB/HR rate is 10.3 (this is his outlier number thus far in his career, one other season at 12.1). He has a 30% K-rate in 2015, but with a 10.7% BB-rate. His ISO is .341, with a slash of .265/.343/.606. (At age 19 in his first tour of AA, Stanton had a 29%/9% K%/BB% ratio, with a slash of .231/.311/.455. He repeated AA at age 20 with a huge across-the-board set of improvements- his AB/HR number went from 18.7 at age 19 to 9.1 at age 20 in the same league- which ultimately led to his promotion to the majors. Is Walker having a similar, yet more of a "late-bloomer"-type spike in power output?) . The current career AB/HR active MLB player leaders (3000 PAs) are: Howard, A-Rod, Pujols, Davis, Ortiz, Teixeira, Bautista, Fielder, Mark Reynolds, Napoli... whose AB/HR numbers range from ~15-17.5. Again, this is not to say that Walker will ever come anywhere close to duplicating any of this type of production at a higher level, but just to point out how unusual his season has been thus far, relative to his 37.2% K-rate. Of the above top 10 HR frequency active players, the closest comps to Walker, and the All-Or-None/TTO nature of his offensive production, and their career K-rates: 1) Mark Reynolds 31.9% 2) Chris Davis 31.1% 3) Ryan Howard 28.1% Conclusions? Walker's still a 100-1 shot, but hard to ignore what he's doing in the moment, bears watching, just to see how long he can continue to defy the odds against him.

Continuity with the core group of prospects is undoubtedly a big factor. Also, Dougie probably still prefers the closer proximity to Miami offered by Chattanooga, given his family situation. I think the Twins hedged their bets well in the Quade hire. I'd have to think that the Marlins go after Dougie in the offseason.

From MiLB wires. This kind of data probably plays big in certain circles- it certainly looks impressive on the surface (and never mind that Pawtucket sits near the bottom of the IL in team batting numbers). Lots of folks love seeing a left-handed "innings-eater" to eventually have as an option to plug into the back-end of a starting rotation. Is this the kind of information that keeps the Twins FO crossing their fingers and ignoring the underlying peripherals that suggest there's trouble ahead for Rogers in MLB as a starter?

Yeah. But the improving numbers in June show no indication that he's willing to lay off obvious balls- he's actually gone the opposite way- and the hole in his swing is there "better" than ever. The Twins coaches are either not concerned enough- or unable- to change his hitting approach. And you're entirely correct, all of the history of baseball suggests he's headed towards an inevitable crash on both fronts when he finally goes up against MLB pitching.

Mexico is not entered in the Pan-Am games. 7 countries represented, including Puerto Rico. Your comment peaks my curiosity, though. How many players currently in the Mexican summer league are out on loan from MLB teams who hold their rights?... and how many could be Free Agents come mid-August when their season ends, or sold to a MLB team beforehand? Acknowledging that the level of play is obviously inferior to MLB, and probably most AAA ball.... Scanning the Mexican League stats, there are a couple power hitters with DH-type profiles and a few younger players in their mid-20s with high athletic-based slash lines.

Thank you. You've put well into words, on both the offensive and defensive side, what I witnessed when I had the chance to see him play in early May. In that game, Walker hit a massive opposite field home run and a booming double, faced a ton of pitches over 5 PAs (whiffing on a number of strikes), and defensively seemed a beat slow off the crack of the bat in LF- automatically in readily acquiescent-mode to anything hit towards his left with Buxton there to cover for him in CF.. To further confound the analysis, Walker has dramatically upped his BA/OPS this month even as he's seeing far less strikes- 54% in April, 38% in June. He's doubled his Out of Zone Swing rate, from 23% to 46%, he's swinging more at EVERYTHING. His K% in June has actually gone up- to 39%- vs. 36.2% previously to that. And yet his June averages are: BA .316 OPS 1.129 (IsoD .054) vs BA .249 OPS .835 (IsoD .055) in April/May. Walker- the ultimate outlier?

Has the pathway been made clear for Sano to make the move to AAA for his proverbial cup of coffee before hitting the show? Red Wings beat writer, Kevin Oklobzija, posts this bit late yesterday evening following the Santana finale appearance: Let the rumor mill get cranked up again.

Clearly the manager stuck with him at SS tonight over Santana when the CF spot opened up just before game time, Santana easily could have been given another start @ SS, with Nunez or Esco in LF. And Nunez seems to have been given a tryout to try to take away playing time from Escobar at the position. Over the last 8 games: Nunez has 5 starts at SS Santana has 3 starts at SS Escobar has 0 starts at SS

A lot better than Boyer, but certainly no panacea. Still a lot better guy to protect than Wheeler and Darnell, it's not even close. And, as far as Graham goes, Gilmartin is a lefty, not a righty, who had a MiLB history of getting LHB out. But there are some similarities, both are draftees of Atlanta, an organization that knows a little about pitching prospects. As far as pedigree goes, Gilmartin was a 1st round pick in the same year (2011), that Graham was picked by the Bravos in the 4th round. Gilmartin MiLB career vs. LHB: K/9 9.45 K/BB 11.67 OPS .515 Graham MiLB career vs. LHB K/9 7.50 K/BB 3.33 OPS .787 There's a reason teams hang on to any possible LHP that might be of help (as evidence, just look at the Twins and their peculiar 11-year love affair with Duensing!). Graham probably has better stuff than Gilmartin has right now, but no reason why you shouldn't have ended up with both on the team this year.

Yep. Once it finally gets down to that level, you know it's become common knowledge around the club as a viable option worth considering, at least to some minds, anyway. Molitor appeared to have slightly jumped the gun for the Twins' FO preferred timing with the promotion for Sano on June 16, just as Gardy did with Meyer back in ST, 2014; perhaps we have a small "whisper campaign" going on down in the locker room, just to get more of the "obvious" out there in print.

Aaron Thompson has fast faded from any potential usefulness as a LHRP. June stats: K/9 2.70 BB/9 5.40 BA .333 WHIP 2.10 xFIP 6.18 Strand 35.7% Brian Duensing June stats show he's actually improved from April & May, but still awful: K/9 5.87 BB/9 4.70 xFIP 4.30 Strand 54.6% Time to give someone else a shot. Rogers AAA numbers for June: K/9 5.40 BB/9 0.83 WHIP 1.06 FIP 2.88 Strand 74.5% Of course, although his overall peripherals have faded a bit, his numbers against LHB have remained ridiculously dominant. http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/11/11/images/mlbf_36913669_th_45.jpg

Now the day-to-day scribes are picking up on the possibility of Rogers as the LHRP answer in the Twins major league pen. Here's Mike Berardino, possibly working off of a nudge from a Twins insider? Better late to the party than never:

Your supposition about their contender-status may prove to be true (I'm in the same camp as you on this one), but the Central and maybe one of the Wild Cards are as up for grabs as they have been in years. Lots of flawed teams in the AL, so many that are just one injury away from taking a huge step back to the pack- only 85 wins might very well win the division/grab a Wild Card berth. Rosario in CF already missed at least one ball last night that Buxton would have had a decent shot at making a play on. Rosario in LF and Buxton in CF is the best possible defensive lineup that the Twins can put out there. Assuming that he can get back to 100% health and AAA rehab readiness before July turns to August, I would give Buxton at least 100 PAs (another 15-20 games) before banishing him to AAA.

And he's a 0.3 bWAR player in his first taste in the majors. Trust B-Ref! And trust me also when I say, "Buxton ain't Hicks!"