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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Well, no. Those who understand that MiLB performance can't be used to translate directly to MLB performance would say it is "hardly likely", although certain within the realm of "possible". Hicks could become that >.350 OBP hitter, but do you think the odds of that are significantly greater than 50% (aka, likely)?
  2. jay
    Dang it, you win.
  3. jay
    Does not apply to Villarreal. They are rather different actually. Villarreal was DFA'd and goes to whichever team claims him along with a corresponding add to the 40-man roster. If he goes unclaimed, the Sox will stash him in the minors.
  4. jay
    I'm bevel angle?
  5. jay
    Do you know for a fact that they haven't? An important difference from Guerrier is that Villarreal was designated for assignment and, if claimed off waivers, would require an immediate spot on the 40 man roster.
  6. jay
    Hicks is probably a bad season away from being a platoon option. Bingo. Need a flexible bench that can do that.
  7. jay
    The numbers presented show that pitchers throwing to Suzuki have a lower K/BB ratio than when throwing to other catchers. Call that framing, call it luck, doesn't really matter. K/BB shows a negative correlation to ERA. The lower it goes, the higher ERA goes. You raise the point as if you're saying that in these situations, that correlation won't exist. It just doesn't seem plausible... at all.
  8. jay
    It is widely accepted that, on average, a difference of roughly 10 runs equates to a win. If you also accept that the average cost of buying a "win" on the free agent market is roughly $5-6 million, you're talking about a very significant amount of value.
  9. jay
  10. jay
    Maybe we read this thread differently, but I've seen it as pretty positive given how last year went for Aaron. There was exactly one post saying he won't play a corner which was later clarified as saying he'd just be more valuable in CF. His splits last year in MLB looked especially bad, but the sample size isn't huge. I was really surprised his MiLB splits weren't as bad as I was expecting. MiLB splits: .813 vs LH, .755 vs RH. http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=543305&split=3000 When you look at average splits across MLB, that's almost exactly what you would expect for a righty who hits lefties better. If he was .813 vs LH, you'd expect roughly 7% worse vs RH for .756. You'd hope for a switch hitter to be more neutral, but at least he's not showing a bigger split than you'd expect anyway. That's a big knock against the "quit switch-hitting" wagon that I wasn't expecting to find. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/basic-hitter-platoon-splits-2002-2012/
  11. jay
    I can't see how it possibly wouldn't be bad, but I do get what you're asking now. I'm not sure where or if that data exists, maybe someone else does. If you want to look at runs allowed for Suzuki vs others, you run the risk of introducing other variables such as if he generally caught certain members of the staff. I liked the original analysis because it stays simple and broad enough to be pretty definitive.
  12. jay
    Law is known for giving shortstops plenty of love, especially guys with glove. Look at his overall top 10. He even talked about it in an interview yesterday on 1500 and how the SS is usually the most athletic kid on the field which bodes well for future success.
  13. jay
    For those who don't seem to think that Suzuki is responsible in some way, shape, or form for the differences in K%/BB% (call it framing, game calling, farting, whatever you want) compared to a large number of other catchers in a significantly large sample size... please, share with us why you think it is occurring.
  14. jay
    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8 C - .697 1B - .811 DH - .745 I must have added wrong earlier. That actually averages to .751. Makes that .737 look even more "fairly conservative" and .725 certainly wouldn't qualify as "optimistic". It probably wouldn't be the first time you've heard this and I don't mean this as a personal attack, but maybe you're being a bit too negative? All figures are an average of ZIPS and Steamer multiplied out by some playing time projections from the staff at FG. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-fangraphs-depth-charts-and-standings/
  15. jay
    Because I think someone else will get some ABs at C? The difference between .625 and .575 at that number of ABs is what is inconsequential. Well, respectfully and frankly, I don't believe you are doing any of those. For what it's worth Fangraphs projects .744, which you'd have to call neutral. I don't think calling .737 "fairly conservative" is unfair. Trying to paint .725 as the optimistic number? Sorry, we'll have to agree to disagree.
  16. jay
    So... rely on projections when a guy is moving to a less physically demanding position and they are far lower than what a guy has done when healthy, but ignore them when a different guy's 2013 number or SSS make him look like a failure? Right. Got it.
  17. jay
    You know as well as I do that Plouffe's sample size at DH is completely irrelevant. Fryer is all of 60 ABs... .625 or .575 really is inconsequential. I'm all for debate. I'm not all for crafting one-sided narratives.
  18. jay
    We're actually very similar at 1B and C, but I have Mauer buoying DH a little. I'm not sure why you'd use or even consider those other numbers for DH. Doumit took the most ABs at .624 and is gone. Willingham and Kubel both weren't themselves. If any of those guys are playing at DH, it's because they are doing better. You even seem to backhandedly acknowledge that by saying .700. If you want to buy that Mauer will be at .825 with the switch to 1B, go ahead. He hasn't been sub-.861 as a C since 2007 other than the injury-filled 2011. [TABLE=width: 271] 1B Mauer [TD=align: right]500 [/TD] [TD=align: right]0.875 [/TD] [/TD] Other [TD=align: right]130 [TD=align: right]0.650 [/TD] DH Kubel [TD=align: right]400 [/TD] [TD=align: right]0.700 [/TD] [/TD] Willingham [TD=align: right]100 [TD=align: right]0.700 [/TD] [/TD] Mauer [TD=align: right]60 [TD=align: right]0.875 [/TD] [/TD] Plouffe [TD=align: right]60 [TD=align: right]0.700 [/TD] C Suzuki [TD=align: right]250 [/TD] [TD=align: right]0.625 [/TD] [/TD] Pinto [TD=align: right]300 [TD=align: right]0.700 [/TD] [/TD] Fryer [TD=align: right]60 [TD=align: right]0.625 [/TD] [/TABLE] 1B - .829, DH - .717, C - .662, combined .737 across 1860 ABs. We really don't see it all too differently, other than your narrative to portray more negatives.
  19. jay
    I feel like I follow the Twins' system pretty closely. I would have been willing to lose a pretty huge amount if you'd have bet me he's on any legitimate top-15 Twins prospect lists. Seth, help??
  20. jay
    I'm going to make a prediction. Drew will sign somewhere for even less than we're talking about now. A fair portion of TD will vomit in disgust and the Drew topic will surpass the 5,000 post mark.
  21. jay
    There is some truth to that, but it doesn't show up in the numbers and you'd expect to see that effect show up for other teams as well (maybe not as much given Mauer's superiority, but still present). MLB performance increases with RISP -- .706 with bases empty, .722 with RISP last year. .707 vs .739 the year before. There's other variables at play here outside of the good hitter already being on base... tiring pitcher, confidence, etc.
  22. jay
    I do get where you're coming from. I'd point to last year as an example of what can happen when you don't have depth. Poor Aaron Hicks is forced to struggle for far too long at MLB because there truly weren't any other real options. Last year was a lost cause for him, possibly (likely?) as a direct result. Very possible his development was harmed, not helped, by being forced in to MLB action.
  23. jay
    Even if the team OPS doesn't increase at all, the team almost has to do better w/ RISP. The team had a 92 wRC+ last year and only put up a 74 wRC+ w/ RISP. That's the 2nd largest difference in MLB. You know as well as I do that "clutch" isn't really a thing. Regression bells should be ringing and that can account for a huge number of runs right there. Edit: Sorry to jump around with which stat. Team OPS was .692, bases empty was .708, men on base was .692, RISP was .635.
  24. jay
    If he's putting up a .350+ OBP and great defense, that's obviously good enough to play. The issue people are pointing out is that's hardly likely. Developing into a .320ish OBP and .720 OPS in LF or RF? That's fringe starter/4th outfielder territory, even with good defense.
  25. jay
    Not saying it makes you a bad fan at all, just different, like you said. This team absolutely needs depth though and this is a no-risk, no-money way to do that. I'd rather see Guerrier come up to pitch if needed than some poor kid who isn't ready while burning option years with the potential to actually harm his development more than help. Not many examples of any decent prospects that never made it to MLB because they were blocked for eternity. Might not be as soon as you'd like, but talent always rises to the top...
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