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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    We're really re-hashing some old history with this Willingham debate. Regardless of what we think the Twins could or should have done, how many examples exist of trading a player 3 months in to a 3+ year contract? I can't think of any and couldn't find any that stood out in searching through mlbtraderumor's transaction tracker. The real world of GMs doesn't support this fan/fantasy baseball/commodity perspective. On the original post, moving Willingham or Morales would be fine. I'm less sold on moving Suzuki -- this Twins just sent Pinto down to work on defense, so I don't see how moving Suzuki in the next few weeks and plugging in Pinto full-time is going to fly... not to mention the lack of depth it would cause. On Hughes, I'll echo the general sentiment... no -- barely into a multi-year contract, can contribute to the next winning team, and GMs just aren't dumb enough to assume he's now a #1/#2 forever and pay the price for that.
  2. jay
    Definitely a cool park. If beer is your thing, check out Great River Brewery. They have a nice little taproom at the brewery and it's about a mile stroll to the ballpark. http://greatriverbrewery.com/
  3. jay
    Problem is, you can quite easily spend 15 million and not know the guy will be good...
  4. jay
    I think you're correct in stating that the Twins have been making FA deals for the last couple years. However, it's an awful big simplification to say that signing a slugger at $12M/year in June is the same as $3M for Jim Thome in the offseason. Same can be said about 2 multi-year starting pitchers at >$8M/year compared to Jason Marquis. What specific moves would qualify for "changed"?
  5. jay
    Precisely. The statistical inputs are HRs (flyballs in xFIP), walks, and strikeouts. Deduno's strengths of a groundball rate approaching 60% (see: 3 inning ending DPs last night) and weak contact isn't captured very well in FIP.
  6. jay
    I'm not sure it makes sense to use small samples to illustrate how he's not good (defense and OPS) AND argue that his small sample numbers (BB%) are due for regression in the same post. FWIW, I don't personally think Hicks will become the regular that many are hoping for (.750 OPS w/ plus defense). Assuming Buxton arrives, he'll need that at least that .750 OPS to be a relevant corner OFer and I just can't find a way to make that realistic. However, I do think he could be a strong 4th OFer on a WS contender.
  7. jay
    Who would play Colabello in his movie? Maybe Chris Evans? Formerly Captain America, shares a first name and both are even from Mass... Ryan Reynolds? Chris Pine?
  8. jay
    I seriously hope someone buys movie rights to his story and puts together one of the best baseball stories of all time. Perseverance. Hard work. Determination. Sacrifice. The plot is golden!
  9. jay
    If look at who signed 2 year deals -- Arroyo, Colon, Hudson, Kazmir -- and some of who signed 1 year deals for > ML min -- Haren, Johnson, Hammel, Chen, Floyd, Vogelsong, Volquez -- it's pretty easy to say he's the outlier in the first group and a much better fit in the second group. I have to agree with your sentiment.
  10. jay
    The money piece of it is one part of the issue. Which, for the record, I don't see how one could justify incurring that kind of cost to drop Bartlett a day earlier in order to keep Mastro. They'll be able to use that 40-man spot on someone else and Mastro was obviously on the DFA chopping block anyway (right or wrong). Another piece of it to consider is the more human piece. I can't imagine it would reflect well on the Twins organization to cut a guy that you gave an opportunity to the day before his retirement papers are finalized. It's easy to think of these guys as dispensable pieces, but there's more to it than that.
  11. jay
    Favorite current Twin would have to be my 2013 Adopt-A-Prospect, Chris Colabello. Can't beat the sweet, salty, spicy combination of pineapple, bacon, jalapenos on a pizza.
  12. jay
    You're right -- not everyone, I'd even say most everyone, agrees. From the same article (which is actually Chris Crawford's work, not KLaw as I originally mentioned): "It's exponentially worse to put a kid at too high a level than to do the opposite in terms of his development, both physically and mentally." Specifically, which top picks were "slow-played"? I don't think you'll be able to come up with any bullet-proof (or even well armored) examples.
  13. jay
    Never said he is one. And probably won't be. I'd be curious what his 2012 splits were in AA and early in AAA. My point is it doesn't make sense to assume he's the extreme opposite field hitter he showed in 2013 based on the dramatic change in his approach that anyone can see.
  14. jay
    Found it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018 You could just as well use that data to show how it highlights the Twins poor drafts, that the college guys in particular from that window didn't advance as quickly as hoped, or that there was a focus on HS guys who need more MiLB ABs. Especially given the first point, this 5 year window doesn't prove much. The lack of rookies entering the league from 2005-2009 and turning into impact players is a big part of how we ended up with 2011-present.
  15. jay
    Link?
  16. jay
    Here's the link to the story: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/253299911.html
  17. jay
    Those results, almost exclusively from last season, don't seem relevant at this point. His positioning last year allowed him to hit inside pitches the other way and barely flail at outside pitches. If you hear Chris talk, he'll tell you he's always been a pull hitter and he went to that approach when he realized he could still hit the ball far the other way. It was clearly successful in AAA, but not MLB. Anyone can see the noticeable change he has made regarding his location in the box. I think we need data from this year before assuming he's truly the type of hitter that you're saying.
  18. jay
    On last year's Oakland team alone, there were plenty of successful examples. 1B Brandon Moss -- Reached AAA in 2007, one bad MLB year in 2009, finally started again as a 29 year old in 2013 with a .859 OPS on the season. SS Jed Lowrie -- Reached AAA in 2007, but could never catch on with the Red Sox. Had an okay year with the Astros in 2012 before being acquired by the A's for 2013 and putting up a .791 OPS as a 29 year old. 3B Josh Donaldson -- The A's own AAAA story, reached AAA in 2010. Finally broke out in 2013 at age 27 as a starter and All-Star with a .883 OPS. OF Josh Reddick -- Stuck between AAA and MLB since 2009 before being acquired by Oakland for 2012. Down year in 2013, but 32 homers in 2012. 2014 -- the year of the Handsome Cola!
  19. jay
    You probably have a valid point about a misperception among fans though. I think it's fair to say a lot of people perceive the time progression of a prospect through each of the levels as equivalent. The Twins seem to execute that as more of a downward sloping line -- more time in the lower levels, less in the higher levels (where warranted).
  20. jay
    Hard to say. I can't think of any examples that produced at a level that really demanded to be promoted out of single-A earlier. Even if so, that is probably balanced out by the willingness to move guys quickly through double-A and even skip AAA completely that has existed for quite a while.
  21. jay
    Likewise for Buxton (thus far), Gibson (pre-injury), Garza, and others who performed. Where's the dissenting opinion that we hear so often?
  22. jay
    They saw some sort of value in putting him on the club as the 25th guy. It's hard to see them thinking his value in that role has changed in less than a week, so you can't see them cutting him. Either way, he gets to keep drawing an MLB paycheck... so you can't envision Bartlett complaining about any unspoken arrangement if it does exist.
  23. jay
    From KLaw's insider article: "Top-15 picks like Kohl Stewart (Twins/Cedar Rapids), Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire (both Pirates/West Virginia), Trey Ball (Red Sox/Greenville) and Dominic Smith (Mets/Savannah) will begin their year in low Class A, while other first-round picks like Clint Frazier (Indians), Nick Ciuffo (Rays) and Ian Clarkin (Yankees) will begin their years in extended spring training." So, Stewart is right in line with his fellow draftmates. From the year before, Buxton is (for all realistic purposes) at AA. The Twins catch a lot of guff about moving prospects slowly, but it feels more and more like myth than fact.
  24. jay
    Pinto and Colabello would the same side of the platoon... they're both righties. I do like the idea of a 40/60 split at C with Pinto at DH vs lefties. That configuration makes it easier to keep Parmelee or Kubel to DH vs righties, but it might squeeze Colabello from the roster.
  25. jay
    No catcher "catches every day" as a literal statement any way... and we all know that. If the literal definition of the phrase bothers you, just reword it as this... how much does he need to catch at the MLB level to justify whatever additional experience he could gain at the position in AAA?
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