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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Take a look at the work that Baseball Prospectus has done. Their framing statistics are adjusted for all the things you've mentioned here and more -- the count, the pitcher, the umpire, pitch type and a regression to the mean. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934 Yes, both Pinto and Suzuki were really bad at framing last year. Suzuki was 2nd to last behind Salty (out of 105). Pinto was way up at 93rd. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667334 Note that page also has some blocking statistics where Suzuki deserves a little credit as being 7th best.
  2. jay
    That might be a question to worry about in like two years. Develop quality MLB players first. Worry about what to do with and where to put the other prospects later.
  3. jay
    You do that by appropriately challenging young players. Hicks hasn't even done enough to show he deserves the second [wait -- THIRD] chance that you're railing against players getting.
  4. jay
    I was referring to the idea of platooning Rosario in your earlier post. Hicks is certainly much closer to the point of being platoonable than Rosario. On Hicks though, I do prefer him in AAA to start the year. If he comes north, his days off should obviously come against righties but it's still hard to see him in a full out platoon this year. I'll add that I don't agree we need that value this year. If we're in the pennant race after the ASB, then there's a much stronger argument to do whatever it takes -- including platoons with developing players.
  5. jay
    I can understand why some people think it's unnecessary, but it's definitely not premature. If the Twins don't extend him now, one of two things will happen: 1) He'll continue to produce at levels like the last two years or better. In this scenario, he gets far more expensive to extend as he's further proven what he is and the very purpose of the Twins doing an extension is greatly diminished. 2) He has a slump or injury and doesn't produce as well. In this scenario, an extension isn't going to be likely any way. You have to take risk to get a benefit. Extend him now or don't at all.
  6. jay
    I agree he gets too much flak, but that's a pretty generous assessment. That would be more true if the 2009 version of Mauer was replicable and he was still a catcher.
  7. jay
    Is Polanco a good option to be the 25th man, second utility infielder starting less than once a week? Is it realistic to think he's ready to (or should) step in as a replacement for a productive MLBer? As a 21 year old who has had 37 games at AA, I'm going to emphatically say no on both. Polanco (and the Twins) would be much better served by having him develop in the minor leagues playing every day.
  8. jay
    There's no way they are going to keep a fairly well regarded prospect on the MLB team to be part of a platoon and not get the development of facing both sides. That's not unique to the Twins.
  9. jay
    For the 25th man, I'd prefer some type of a specialist -- speed, defense or power -- as opposed to a backup to the backups (ie Nunez). I will say though that a Nunez is a slight improvement over the likes of a Bartlett.
  10. jay
    I took it to mean that Pelfrey isn't guaranteed a roster spot. Given his performance and injury issues, I'd call that a good thing. Not sure how that's true. The Twins have, in fact, released guys with contracts in his range on multiple occasions. Granted, it hasn't really been done in spring training, but it's usually applied to guys on one-year deals instead of the second year of a two-year deal. What happens if the Twins try to send Pelfrey to Rochester? Waivers? He gets the option to become a free agent?
  11. jay
    What happened to the DH spot?
  12. jay
    If Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Mauer and Plouffe are all Twins, one of them has to play the OF corner opposite Arcia. The math is pretty easy to figure that one out. Which of Sano, Mauer and Plouffe would make the best RFer? All 3 guys have the arm for it. Plouffe probably runs the best. Cuddyer, part deux?
  13. jay
    Seeing as the only guys left from 2011 are Mauer, Plouffe and Duensing (FA after this year), I'm not really sure what that means.
  14. jay
    I hereby nominate Trevor Plouffe for the title of most underrated Twin.
  15. jay
    Absolutely, it can be a factor. You'd almost expect it to be a bigger deal in the minors as the defensive skill of catchers has greater variation while teams are seeing if the prospect can be a catcher. At the MLB level, there's a higher bar of minimum capability. The impact of umpires shouldn't matter all that much within a league (assuming each ump sees each team a sufficient number of times), but would make it more challenging to get accurate or comparable framing numbers across leagues. Umpires aren't considered an issue in assessing framing / catcher defense at the MLB level because there's enough sample size and exposure across the league to each umpire. Not true in MiLB.
  16. jay
    I'll be surprised if Plouffe gets traded away during his remaining arb control, regardless of what Sano does. This team needs more players that are at least average, not fewer. Positions are not so binary that Sano and Plouffe are an either/or proposition. They'll find a spot for him (or Sano).
  17. jay
    Right, right... but I think that highlights that the response from some corners has been >>>>>>> the reality of it.
  18. jay
    That's the same Mark Buerhle that a number of folks here were adamant the Twins should trade for this offseason. I'll take Milone for $2.8, please.
  19. jay
    I agree on Schafer's ideal role, but I also believe there's a quote out there about the definition of insanity. Most folks seem to expect Hicks will fail yet again, so why make him the Opening Day CF for a third year in a row?? I recall another young OFer in Twins history who was pretty upset about being sent to AAA and proceeded to play his way on to the MLB team. I think that is exactly what would be best for Mr. Hicks' development.
  20. jay
    Boy, oh, boy does that feel like stretching for something to grasp at... The first, third and fourth points will depend much more on the development of guys like Buxton, Hicks, Rosario and even Sano (Plouffe to a corner, anyone?) than a one-year contract.
  21. jay
    I get the CF to a corner difference, but I guess I've always considered LF and RF to be pretty equivalent. Is that incorrect?
  22. jay
    Not that it's much better, but I don't think anyone is saying he's a "good" defender... maybe just better than the very worst. I fully believe he was/is going to be bad in the field, but it's tough to buy he was worse than Willingham and a few others. It's a bit hard to swallow that he's gone from +15 DRS just two years ago and had a 25 (!!) run swing to -10 just a year later to then dropped 8 more to -18. His speed score hasn't declined significantly from his time with the Angels and it's not like he forgot how to read a ball due to age. It seems fair to question some of the numbers, as folks are doing here.
  23. jay
    I generally quite prefer the hard numbers to faith but color me a believer, my friend! Worship is Tuesdays at 3 when you decide to join!
  24. jay
    C'mon, jimmer. Give it a chance. You're pretty skeptical on this, but most of the knocks I've seen on Torii are related to how he will (or won't) impact the 2015 W-L record. There's a bigger picture beyond that, as you know. We'd have a hard time quantifying leadership, clubhouse dynamics, "winning attitudes", etc, but after four brutal seasons, changing dynamics can't be anything but a good thing. We have far more evidence and reason to believe Torii can be a net positive influence here than not.
  25. jay
    Maybe the Twins will win the World Series.
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