He needs to be on the team as of opening day to be eligible, and you would need to offer him a qualifying offer, which is very different from arbitration. A qualifying offer level will be determined each season, but it's based on an average of the top 125 salaries for the previous season. For 2012, at the last time it was updated (early August by Buster Olney), it was going to take a $13.3M offer for one season for a qualifying offer. If the player accepts that, you pay them that amount for the next year or negotiate a longer term deal. If they reject that, then the team will be eligible for a compensatory draft pick. If the team does not make an offer up to the qualifying level or the player accepts the qualifying offer, there is no compensatory pick. If Johnson is hurt in 2013, it is highly doubtful he would get an estimated $13.7M after 2013 (current number for after 2013 in Olney's August article), so the Twins would be stuck with him at that number if they even offered that amount to him. So there's a fairly high chance that Josh Johnson would bring you back no picks in 2013, and there's a nonzero chance that Johnson provides you less WAR than Scott Baker (Baker earned 1.1 fWAR more in 2011 in a season where both missed time due to injury). Johnson has been "hurt" 1 of the past 4 years. I'm not sure what your point exactly is, by the way, why are you trolling Twins boards anyways? I thought you were a Braves fan?