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Han Joelo

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Everything posted by Han Joelo

  1. Han Joelo
    Deolis Guerra. Seems like he had a helluva change up too. Not comparing him to De Leon, exactly. But when you look at those Fangraphs, um, graphs of future value, and you see that one that says 30% chance of being a 1-5 WAR player, just look at Guerra's career to see what that might look like.
  2. Han Joelo
    Count me as one who also admires Falvey's backbone. Those third pieces…sometimes they turn out to be Liriano's. Funny trade to think about really; if Liriano hadn't been included I think we'd still look back at that as a good deal.
  3. Han Joelo
    Cool story. Makes me think of a cousin of mine who played college baseball. I think he even got a finance degree as well, although he was able to get back into coaching. I wonder if my cousin was ever a phone call away from being a pro. Good stuff as always, Seth.
  4. Han Joelo
    That Baseball Weekly I alluded to featured the likes of Garza, Slowey, Blackburn maybe, Perkins, Crain, and Durbin, even Duensing. Different days and different ways to evaluate prospects to be sure. I guess for many, me included, if the outcome for the current group was the same as that one, it would be disappointing, if realistic. But then a Liriano comes out of nowhere...
  5. Han Joelo
    I will share your tempered enthusiasm, Nick. This is the best looking bunch of pitching prospects the Twins have had since the days I got all of my prospect information from the USA Today Baseball Weekly. Still smarting about J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin, though. Metaphor for the day: Pitching prospects are like Nerf Darts in a holiday shootout with your family. Try to stockpile as many as you can, and start shooting. Maybe one of them will stick to the window and you'll find it again. Actually, you could probably take six nerf darts, paint them white, write the names of these four guys plus the two Dodgers, go outside and shoot them into the snow, and then go look for them. The one you find has as good a chance of being "the one" as anything we can predict. Meanwhile, Felix Jorge will have a long and uneventful career...
  6. Han Joelo
    I feel like there are similarities to the Donaldson to Toronto trade going on here. I know it's not apples to apples, and I guess the "lottery ticket" the A's got is still developing and could balance the scales. Still, at one end of the bell curve, Dozier could be an MVP type guy the next couple-three years. I know I am still largely in the dark ages when it comes to understanding "valuation," but then again I know how much I value Dozier as a fan. At any rate, having a really good veteran like Dozier for the next two years help pave the way for the young guys ascension does have a lot of less quantifiable value, and I think this FO has indicated they understand that. Bottom line, don't trade him for Brett Lawrie. Or Phil Humber.
  7. Han Joelo
    Great interview. I like this kid. I'm going to keep my eye on this one.
  8. Han Joelo
    I started to try and figure out what Spycake meant with this yesterday, but I saw a squirrel, so... I guess on a financial spreadsheet, the Dodgers could recoup some of the money they've invested in Alvarez by acquiring "surplus value" in the form of Dozier. Might help balance their books, in a wonky way that only billionaires who don't pay taxes would understand. Actually, now that I think about it, they probably want to keep Alvarez, so that at some point down the road, they can somehow "write off" that $30 mil as a loss--after his arm inevitably falls off.
  9. Han Joelo
    So is this a good and fair thing? Just curious.
  10. Han Joelo
    Fixed that for you.
  11. Han Joelo
    What latitude do you have to be at before the whole longest night deal becomes moot? The longest day I ever had lasted from October 30th to February 8th, at the South Pole. The Yankees won the WS, Ravens the Super Bowl, and Bush the White House. Seemed like that day would never end. Had time to run around the world three times, even.
  12. Han Joelo
    Thanks for bringing this to my attention Mike Sixel and Twins Daily. Interesting read. Not much to add, other than is that a little bit of passive-aggressive treatment of Molitor? "He's the one holding the pen" (He's the one holding the rope, he can hang himself if he wants?)
  13. Han Joelo
    Throwing darts blindfolded isn't random, at least in my analogy -- the direction of the dartboard is known. And I agree with you -- in each successive round, the dartboard gets smaller.
  14. Han Joelo
    One more thing: The Nationals just signed Jacob Turner to a minor league deal. 9th overall pick in 2009. Check out the list from that year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2009&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg I think the best thing about that list isn't about all the teams that passed on Trout, it is the fact that the Diamondbacks, (who seem to rate very highly on Seth's data) had two consecutive picks, and chose Bobby Borchering (???) ahead of A.J. Pollock. So if they hadn't of had that extra pick... Throwing darts blindfolded.
  15. Han Joelo
    What I think about is how those picks affect the careers of not just the Scouting Directors, but the area scouts. I heard an interview with the scout who stuck his neck out to get Minaya or whomever to pick Daniel Murphy in the later rounds. He really believed in Murphy, despite a lack of measurables, and had to "pick his battle" in the war room. Imagine sitting there, Joe Dirtbag Scout, with your cigar and notebook (or your casual dress shirt and laptop) and pretty much putting your reputation and maybe livelihood on the line for some 17 year old kid. "You're SURE this kid is worth a fifth round pick, Joe? I've got a kid from Dartmouth mowing my lawn who showed me some fancy numbers that say I should take this other guy. You better be right."
  16. Han Joelo
    Interesting look. Thanks, Seth. Just one piece of the puzzle, of course, and there is just a lot of noise to wade through, which then leads to all sorts of ways to perceive this. I don't really care how the Twins ultimately rate, at least I'm not going to parse whether they were "Average" or "Slightly Below Average." Way too much luck involved. I'd have to see the actual draft boards of all those teams to make a judgment -- I.e would the Mariners have taken Hultzen over Cole if the picks were flopped? Where did all of those teams that picked right after the Twins have Gordon on their boards? Like Seth points out, according to the revered Klaw, the Michael pick was a 15 pick steal. I'd say about the only pick you could say "great choice" is the Correa over Buxton pick, and the jury is still out on that one.
  17. Han Joelo
    RE: Trading Dwozier I imagine this delay is a case of new kids at the table Falvey and Levine needing to "establish themselves with authority" rather than doing something like this right out of the gate: https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E (How do you embed the whole video rather than the link?)
  18. Han Joelo
    Re: Trading Dwoizier As new kids on the block, I would hope that a lot of this is just Falvine "establishing their presence with authority," rather than like this: https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gORMNmZgE3E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
  19. Han Joelo
    Threadator vs. Daveliens
  20. Han Joelo
    So sad to hear this. Condolences.
  21. Han Joelo
    I like to think Haley is a real diamond in the rough, a potential Kuechel in the making. It is wishful thinking, yes, but I still like it.
  22. Han Joelo
    Nice breakdown. I prefer to think of Haley in the Neshek/Breslin mold, even if it's got no justification whatsoever.
  23. Han Joelo
    Not to mention he always wanted to pretend to be an architect--of a baseball team. Carrochio, on the other hand, would be the first major leaguer ever from the Galapagos Islands, if he made it.
  24. Han Joelo
    I'm just speculating on gamesmanship. You've got the headliner guys you absolutely have to get, but those secondary guys may or may not be more beloved by both teams than we realize. I think it was you who noted that only 2 of BA's top 10 guys got taken in the Rule V. The Dodgers might be saying why would you want Eduardo Carrochio? Why don't you take Art van Delay instead? BA has him ranked ten spots higher. I agree that the Kluber/Arrieta types are hard to identify, but maybe that was one of those market inefficiency things and in this case a sticking point. Or I am, as usual, completely off.
  25. Han Joelo
    Agreed! For all the interest in who might be included in a potential Dozier trade, ten years from now we may remember this day as the day we didn't lose Lewis. And the day every team in the league passed on him...almost a reverse Johan. Or not.
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