stringer bell

Love the Arrested Developments references. As far as Gomez goes, he has a great many skills. He still strikes out a lot and swings too hard, but it should be about knowing when to let it go and when to settle for a gapper or an opposite field single. He is certainly getting himself out less now than when he was a Twin (or in his first three years with the Brewers). Just backing off a few percent with two strikes could make him a star or maybe a superstar.

Here's my lineup (mix of reality and wishful thinking):Dozier 2b Mauer dh Willingham lf Morneau 1b Plouffe 3b Doumit c Parmelee rf Hicks cf Florimon ss Deduno p

WAR is flawed I'm sure. Currently for the Twins, Mauer is their top rated O-WAR player (2.0) and second is ....................Trevor Plouffe (0.9). Oops, Hammer comes in at 1.0, so Plouffie is third.

To me, a 4A hitter is a guy who can hit marginal pitching, be it breaking stuff, offspeed, or heat. Hitting Pelfrey's 92 MPH heater can be done by a 4A guy, while hitting Felix, Verlander, Strassberg, etc. not so easy. If fastballs are Parm's weakness, he needs to develop a way to survive against them--like shortening his swing and going the other way etc.--while feasting on the other stuff. I remember Puckett's first years where he survived against the heat but feasted on mistakes like hanging curve balls.

I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic. Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason. Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter? Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.

I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic. Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason. Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter? Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.

I think a lot of us consciously or unconsciously said "uh-oh" when Kelly made that comment. It could be as simple and innocuous as his swing getting long while in a slump, same as Mauer, Morneau, Willingham etc. or it could be a sign that he's just a AAAA hitter.

As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham. The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier. Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley. Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.

As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham. The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier. Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley. Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.

Maybe you are right, but the Twins aren't a contending team now, and probably won't be next year. I certainly think that the team needs to give him his at-bats and see what happens. We know that he got white-hot hitting in Rochester (not unlike Plouffe's streak in the majors last June) and a solid great month could propel his numbers into the satisfactory range. In some respects, this is the perfect laboratory to find out. He and his team are playing major league baseball and facing MLB talent, but the pressure of a pennant race is absent. There is much to be gained and little to lose by being patient and seeing how it pans out--maybe it's Randy Bush, maybe it is more, perhaps it is much less. Offering Morneau an extension is throwing good money after bad IMHO (really fodder for another thread). If Parmelee fails, find somebody else. There are lots of guys out there who could fill the bill for Morneau at a fraction of the salary.

Interleague play has limited Parmelee's chances since the Twins have seen fit to put Doumit in RF. That won't be an issue when they return home, of course. They also started Colabello in RF for one game, so another chance for Chris was lost. Also, with Herrmann replacing Wilkin Ramirez, Gardy has seen fit to start Doumit in RF, knowing he has a third catcher available. It's very possible that Herrmann will be gone, if not today by the weekend with the near-certain return of Trevor Plouffe and the likely return of Ramirez. The Twins play two more series at NL parks, against the Nat on June 7-9 and against the Marlins on June 25-26. Parmelee would be advised to swinging better by then.

I agree that the Twins need to give Parmelee an extended trial. With Morneau in the last year of his deal, the team needs to know if he can hit enough to be an everyday player at first or in right. I think Parmelee has shown enough defensively that he can be trusted in right field. Besides catching what he gets to, he played the caroms in the corners and off the wall well. He charged hits well and made mostly very good throws. He made a catch that I saw live in spring training that rivals either of Hicks' HR robberies. I think that having someone like Parmelee who could shuttle between first and right would be nice if the club wants to use their superstar catcher more at first. In the end, though, it all will depend on how much he hits.

I like both Smalley and Coomer more than Bert, but probably as a change of pace. Both Roy and Coom get their hitting clichés on when doing analysis. I didn't mind Smalley in studio, but after listening to him for two games, I'm not that impressed.

1. Hicks with two XBHs, a home run robbed. Kid looks better. Oh yeah, both hits LH. 2. Dozier with three hits, a walk, and a nice defensive play. 3. Pressly was nasty in his 2 innings, Swarzak very good as well. 4. Escobar got the winning run home. 5. Duensing got his first professional save.

Much like numbering the gates at Target Field--that should be TD policy #55.

As for Hicks hitting only righthanded, attempting such a project after investing five years in the minors strikes me as more desperate than the Twins should be. Yes, he has a better swing righty, but there are huge advantages to being a switch hitter and hitting lefty against righthanded pitchers. As Brock pointed out, Hicks' history is to struggle, then catch up and this seemed to be the case especially for hitting lefthanded. I still think Hicks needs some AAA time, but for him to give up hitting lefthanded at this point would be pretty drastic.

I'm pretty sure Mike is right about the contract. The Twins can't offer more than a 20% cut if they negotiate an extension for Morneau. Once he is a free agent, then any contract would be on the table. The Twins would have to decide whether or not to make the $13M qualifying offer, which to me is a no-brainer. Many are saying that the Twins will just bank the savings and history says they will. This is a new situation--fans are expecting more since revenues are greater--and the Twins are building while not being a small market club. If 2014 is the "runup" year, it would make sense to add a better quality pitcher or two and maybe an infielder or first baseman. There always seem to be first basemen available at less than half the cost of the free agent qualifying offer. This year Lyle Overbay, James Loney, Casey Kotchman, and Mark Reynolds were all available.

Schedule, smedule! The Twins already lost a game to the Marlins at home. They'll be lucky to get 2 of 4 from the beat up and not that good Brewers and the Astros might play their best baseball of the year when they face the Twins are win three or four of the six. My take is this club is playing slightly better than last year's edition and that they have less talent on the field. Injuries and the trade deadline will determine the record. Progress or lack thereof from the likes of Dozier, Parmelee, Florimon, and Plouffe as well as the development or lack thereof from the rookies Arcia, Gibson, and Hicks will determine how much progress, if any, the club has made.

I agree with those saying the Twins should call him up. Besides being a temporary replacement for Hicks in CF, he is a leadoff guy and with Hicks being put at the bottom of the order there has been no one really to fill that void. I suspect Richardson would be Revere with a bit less contact, although he has really shown himself to be very selective this year. If he could maintain a high walk rate, he could have value as a speedy OBP guy.

Thanks for the report. My brother and I are going down to CR June 8-9. My daughter lives nearby so I'll get to see her and get to see some fun MiLB.

I dunno. I disagree with Nick and you (Mike). Saying that Morneau continues through the year with low power numbers, but healthy, and Parmelee improves marginally (.725 to .775 OPS), I would bet on the young guy getting better at less than 10% of the salary. With Parm showing proficiency as an OF, it would give the Twins the flexibility of using Mauer more at first and perhaps going with a guy like Pinto as backup catcher.

Scherzer had completed a year + when he was dealt to the Tigers. I don't consider that a prospect. That is where Diamond is right now. I would say that Ryan is very hesitant to deal for someone who will cost the team money in salary. I also believe that the market for players with more than one year of service who project to be well above average (like Scherzer) is very steep. In talking about 2014, adding someone whith a bright future and more than a year of major league service would cost a lot--probably more than Ryan (and a lot of other GMs) is willing to spend. Perhaps the Twins could snare a Scherzer-like talent at the trade deadline if they deal the Hammer.

Two months does not a season make--this goes for the disappointments as well as the positive surprises--but I can't help but like what Florimon has done. He looks like a good shortstop and as Nick stated, he's a bottom of the order guy who hits a little bit and can steal an occasional base. I amnot as optimistic for Correia, but I think he'll probably stay in the rotation until at least September and win his 10-12 games. Worley needs to get his confidence back, first and foremost, and if a CG shutout for Rochester help that, great.

Caspar Wells and Burnett are neck and neck.

It is a real quandry. He's hitting for average, playing good to great first base and certainly is highly regarded by the Twins players and front office. He isn't driving the ball like he used to and he has an injury history with the constant threat that another head injury would end his career. The numbers don't add up to anything that would garner a qualifying offer from the Twins and I still suspect that he won't take a huge pay cut from Minnesota. It's hard to believe he will be a Twin on Opening Day next year and he won't net that much in trade.