stringer bell

The first move is today, correct? Fien should be activated and somebody (please let it be Stauffer) should be demoted/DFAed.

The problem with Arcia is that he seems to get hurt every year. Who wouldn't love his bat, but the inconsistency is a problem. He is o-fer in his first two AAA games, so he isn't mashing yet. I think the team should wait on him until he is hitting. In the meantime, swapping Vargas out for a pitcher makes sense, especially if Molitor is okay with Rosario getting the bulk of the playing time in left (not Escobar).

I'd like to see Rosario stay. He's a far better defender with an excellent OF arm and he can hit, although he needs to be more selective. That would push Arcia vs. Vargas for DH at-bats. I also wouldn't be totally opposed to seeing Santana spend a month or so in Rochester, it seemed to help Hicks and so far Vargas has responded well.

If Casey Fien feels okay, he will be in uniform tomorrow. That could be the end of the road for Stauffer or Duensing, or mean an option for Tonkin or Pressly. It still doesn't deal with the logjam between left field, shortstop, and DH. Arcia is rehabbing and so far Vargas is raking at AAA. Who should be with the Twins and who should be in the minors?

I believe rehab can go to 15 days. I bet the Twins use most or all of it with Arcia. He is o-fer in his first two games and I'm not sure if Molitor wants him back just yet.

I just can't see Pelfrey carrying a 130 ERA+ to the trading deadline. I did mention that I would want the Dodgers or any other team to overpay, and I'm thinking help for the 2015 season and beyond. Perhaps, as mentioned following, acquiring a catcher who would be a significant upgrade over Herrmann and compete for a starting spot in 2016. Perhaps a bullpen piece (probably a left hander) that could help the club this year. If Pelf is above average by mid-season, the price would be steep.

Duensing was out of options, but with his years of service, he can't be sent down (without his consent) anyway. The Twins signed Boyer to a minor league contract with an opt-out and then promoted him to the roster. I don't know if previous options apply in that situation. If the Twins want to go back to two pitchers, I think they'll designate one of Stauffer/Duensing and option one (probably Pressly) to the minors, with Fien coming on board.

I have to disagree with Brock on Pelfrey (a bit). He's had a good run and might continue to be sub3.50 ERA, but he's on the last year of his contract and there really isn't room to bring him back. If the Dodgers would be willing to overpay for a rental, I'd be all over that. My premise is that there are replacements who can do about as well, who will be here beyond 2015.

I didn't think Pelfrey looked that sharp early on Tuesday. He wasn't missing many bats and the Sox hit some balls solidly. As the game wore on, his secondary pitches got a bit sharper and then, with his pitch count up, he breezed through the sixth and seventh. What does all of that say about his pitching this year? Well, I think he's got enough stuff to face even the most powerful lineups, but the command has to be there. He can't throw his fastball middle-middle and expect weak contact. The increased use of the split-finger makes all his pitches more effective. He is going to get a lot of balls hit on the ground and turning them into the maximum number of outs is important. Check Pelfrey's numbers next to Gibson's. They are very similar.

Well,well, Mr Hicks! And after the third inning, such strange events.

Nice job Shane! Let's hope a) the LH bats get going (Mauer, Herrmann) and that the Royals lose while the Twins win, resulting in a FIRST PLACE TIE on May 27th. Whodathunkit?

Perkins is the one with the inside track. Dozier is having a similar season to last year at this point, but there are a half dozen elite 2B in the AL. Plouffe is also having a fine year and the position isn't as deep. I would put Hunter in contention because so few OFs are having outstanding years. Other than Perkins, I don't think any pitcher has all-around good enough numbers (wins, strikeouts, ERA) to be considered.

Quick sixth (and now seventh) made a liar out of me.

You've got a lot of company with that thought. Especially since this is probably the starter's last inning.

The Twins' leading percentage hitter is Trevor Plouffe.

It's not unusual for the manager and his pitching coach to be a partnership. I think Gardy would have been better off with a better best friend.

Pelf doesn't look as sharp tonight. Lots of fouls and balls hit in the air. Also a lot of pitches.

Too many foul balls.

Cheap run.

Buchholz looks like he's been on a week-long bender.

Wow, that was a terrific play by Plouffe.

After two straight convincing wins, the Twins stand at 26-18, eight games over .500 for the first time since 2010. It is early, but so far the record says "contention". The record says that the Twins have improved, but a case can be made that the whole thing is "smoke and mirrors". Statistics tell a conflicting story, but the deeper you dig, the more amazing it is that the Twins are among the top teams in the league. The way you count wins and losses in this game is by the number of runs scored. The Twins are doing quite well by this simplest statistic. They have scored 204 runs and allowed 186, that is a run differential of +18, fourth best in the AL, behind Kansas City, Houston and (surprise!) Toronto. Breaking it down a bit further, the Twins score the third-most runs per game, that is very good. They are seventh in fewest runs permitted per innings pitched, so slightly above average. How they come to score that many runs and permit that few is where the smoke and mirrors comes in. Let's start with the offense. In this era of limited run-scoring, no one is hitting like they did ten years ago. The Twins 204 runs in 44 games is an average of 4.64 runs per game which would yield 751 runs in a full season--the 2004 Twins scored 780 runs and finished tenth in runs scored. Minnesota's team batting average so far this year is .257, good for third in the league however, the team OBP is 11th, team slugging is 11th and team OPS is 12th. It isn't home runs, either. The Twins rank 13th out of 15 in in long balls and have given up five more homers than they've hit. Somehow, the Twins have managed to score more runs per game than all but two teams. Last year's team also overproduced when viewing their on-base and slugging. One more point, it isn't the running game or more accurately stolen bases. The Twins are in the bottom half of both stolen bases and stolen base percentage. Pitching and fielding comprise defense. I don't know if it is pitching or fielding or both, but the Twins in the last four years have permitted either the most or second most runs in each of those four years. This year, eight teams are allowing more runs per inning pitched. Even more than the hitting, this result seems to fly in the face of the statistics that should support improvement. Minnesota is dead last in strikeouts, batting average against and hits allowed. They are tenth or worse in OBP against, OPS against and home runs allowed yet the team is allowing 4.23 runs per game. I don't believe the positive runs differential (and 59% winning percentage) can continue with such poor supporting numbers. If the Twins are going to continue to surprise their fans, they need to erase the gap between the stats that predict run-scoring and actual runs scored. Other teams have beaten the odds for portions of seasons, but eventually the law of averages catches up. More games like the last two will do wonders for all the numbers.

I would be hesitant to trade any pitching prospects. There is some redundancy in the hitting prospects, especially corner OF/1B/DH types. It would be risky, but at some point parting with one or two of those guys (perhaps one of Arcia/Vargas) might be something to do to get help this season and beyond.

I was thinking the same thing. That would mean an arb eligible player in exchange for a comparable $12M per year four year contract. A good thing, no?

Interesting! The only one that jumps out at me is Alex Wimmers.