stringer bell

They won't lose that many. Once one of their players is selected they can pull back a number of players IIRC. They could lose one or perhaps two at the worst.

I would combine both All-Stars second half decline. Dozier and Perkins were great 'til the All-Star Game, but bad enough in the last 70 games to make their overall seasons less than satisfactory.

If the main point of being added to the 40-man roster is avoiding Rule V losses, I think the Twins should protect Melotakis and Niko Goodrum. I think Melotakis is going to be a fine pitcher for someone, but next year his innings and effectiveness will be limited. Goodrum is versatile, fast, and athletic. Hitting has been his big problem, but I can see a team claiming him and using him as a 25th man.

Remember that Arcia had a similar situation in 2014--injury rehab followed by an option--and perhaps the Twins were looking for some specific improvement that didn't show even during his two-week hot streak. I think Arcia will at least be a LH platoon partner in right field to start the season--a fair last chance--and I think there's a good chance that he will do well. There is no doubt that Arcia is an emotional player and maybe emotion is working against him. Something went dreadfully wrong with Arcia last season but he has a chance to wipe the slate clean. Vargas has long odds against him. First base is blocked by Mauer and if Joe were to be injured, Vargas is behind probably one of Plouffe or Sano and Max Kepler. His only way out of the box is to hit like an All-Star.

Agree, this is both an excellent article and quite depressing. It summarizes what is wrong with the Twins going forward. There is a huge amout of money invested in Hughes, Santana and Nolasco with no real prospect of ridding themselves of those contracts. Except for the truly elite arms, it is a losing bet to invest in 30 (year-old)+ starters and the Twins have three on their hands. IMHO, this is the big challenge for Terry Ryan the rest of this offseason--somehow make the rotation competitive with top teams and improve the bullpen. I have advocated May to the bullpen because he could break out to be a real force in the bully, where there is a real need for a power arm.

It's not as important as defense in center. Arcia isn't good, but the others could be more than OK.

You're right to a degree, but what changes if Hicks is considered a corner OF is that there will be different people who are capable of playing the outfield corners competing for playing time there. On the Twins, it would be Arcia, AB Walker and probably Kepler. None of those guys are projected as center fielders, but all could man left or right (maybe not Arcia). If Hicks were moved to a corner, he would have to better than those guys and I don't think he would be.

Agee that the sample size is too small to make conclusions about Murphy. Hicks isn't a starting center fielder for the Twins by midseason at the latest.

From the OP, I don't agree with Logan Darnell being on the Opening Day roster, many better options including Rogers. I think Plouffe will be traded, otherwise pretty much what was laid out there.

Here's my take: Aaron Hicks was a different player last year. He hit and fielded like a major league center fielder, but his overall numbers were not quite league average. As noted by many, his LH numbers were below average and every year hitter will face between 2/3 and 3/4 right handed pitchers. If one thinks Aaron Hicks is a top 15 center fielder (offense and defense) the Twins got fleeced. I think Hicks is a marginal starter and would have been replaced by Byron Buxton early in the 2016 season. If Hicks isn't a regular in center, he just doesn't hit enough (especially left handed) to be a regular on an outfield corner. Hicks had more value than a year ago, so Ryan didn't sell low. I'd much rather see Buxton, Rosario, Kepler in the future. For now, the window is open for Arcia to get another shot as a corner outfielder and when his trial is done, perhaps Kepler or maybe even ABW will get a shot. I think that is better than going with Hicks in right or left field. John Ryan Murphy: He's young, he's cheap, and he's a catcher. Probably the most disturbing thing about Murphy is that he doesn't have All-Star upside. There are no 80 tools, but he profiles to at least get more plate appearances than Herrmann/Fryer and perhaps will be sharing the job or more by midseason. It won't be fair to look at Murphy's numbers compared to Hicks. Look at Murphy's numbers compared to Herrmann/Fryer and Buxton's compared to Hicks.

Welcome to the board. Solid first post!

It looks like all of the Twins farmhands are doing pretty well. I'm especially pulling for two who I think could help the club in 2016--no not ABW, but Rogers and Turner. Rogers has pitched pretty well as a starter, but I hope the Twins consider him for the bullpen. Turner is getting on base, with a really high percentage of walks and earlier reports have highlighted his throwing. It would be nice to have a catcher (even a backup) who can get on base more than 30% of the time and can throw out more than 20% of attempted base stealers.

It looks like all of the Twins farmhands are doing pretty well. I'm especially pulling for two who I think could help the club in 2016--no not ABW, but Rogers and Turner. Rogers has pitched pretty well as a starter, but I hope the Twins consider him for the bullpen. Turner is getting on base, with a really high percentage of walks and earlier reports have highlighted his throwing. It would be nice to have a catcher (even a backup) who can get on base more than 30% of the time and can throw out more than 20% of attempted base stealers.

Excellent job on the handbook.

If Plouffe were traded, I expect Nunez will be a Twin next year. If not, I don't think he's a real fit as the second utility guy, although he hit pretty well last year. As I said earlier, I don't think Santana's season in 2014 should be forgotten, but it should be put in perspective. Danny is still a young player who figures to get better with some confidence and playing time. If he comes back with a season closer to 2014, he has value as either a Twin or a trade chip. It only makes sense to give him that opportunity.

The spot Santana figures to take belongs to the much-maligned Eduardo Nunez.

It won't be that way and shouldn't be that way in this instance. Santana is out of options and will be playing for the Twins in the major leagues or traded. He certainly won't make it through a DFA. Jorge Polanco is not being blocked by Danny Santana. The Twins don't want and even younger guy with a considerable upside to be a bench player.

"You never know what you're gonna get" (from Forrest Gump), this little witticism also applies to baseball players. Every front office projects what their prospects will become, but it is never a sure bet. Consider two current Minnesota Twins: Brian Dozier came to the Twins as a shortstop, thought to be fundamentally sound in the field, but without great tools. As a hitter, he had never hit below .274 and never exceeded nine homers in a season, with his top year yielding at .320 average in a year split between advanced A ball and AA. Typical middle infielder profile. Sometime in 2013, the scouting report changed--Dozier has become a second baseman and a guy with a low batting average, but with the most extra base sock for his position in major league baseball. It could be argued that from the start of 2014 (or perhaps midseason of 2013) until the All-Star break in 2015 that Dozier put together elite numbers based on his power numbers. Overall, despite the low batting average and middling overall OBP, Dozier has established himself as a hitter based on his extra-base hits. Since 2013 he has compiled 105 doubles and 69 homers from second base. Now, lets look at Oswaldo Arcia: Coming through the system, the most used comp for Arcia was Bobby Abreu, a fine hitter with some power. Arcia hit his way throught the minors, always as a young player for the league. He topped out at 17 homers in 2012, splitting his season between A+ and AA and hitting a combined .320. As a Twin, Arcia has become a true home run threat, hitting 34 homers (including some prodigious long balls) in under 800 plate appearances in 2013 and 2014. However, the batting average and more importantly strike zone discipline have diminished dramatically. Both players have increased their power numbers at the highest level, but lost something in the transition. Dozier hasn't cracked .250 for batting average and this season set the club strikeout record. Arcia's K percentage is much higher than Dozier's and he seldom takes a free pass, in fact this year for the Twins Arcia didn't get a non-intentional walk (65 PAs). I think the Twins would be happy if both Dozier and Arcia became more complete hitters, even if it costs a few home runs. In Arcia's case, I think his time in Minnesota will end if he doesn't modify his approach (and results), while with Dozier, becoming someone who uses the whole field more often would be an adjustment to the adjustments that major league pitchers have used on him.

I don't know how much things have changed since the Gardy era, but regulars were regulars and the bench guys were the ones who had to be versatile. As far as Santana backing up third base, I do think the Twins should look at him there in ST. If they keep Plouffe, it likely won't be an issue, of course. Ditto for the outfield. Both Hicks and Rosario played a lot in right last year, so Santana probably wouldn't have to play that position. Robinson played 36 innings there in '15 and he was the fourth OF. FWIW, if a guy can capably play short, it should be relatively easy to adjust to third and we all know Santana has plenty of arm for any infield position. The same with transitioning from center to a corner.

Perhaps Santana's struggles last year explain some of Terry Ryan's apparent affection for middling veterans. I predicted last year that at least one of the Twins' partial season break-outs (Santana, Vargas, or Arcia) would spend time in the minors in 2015. Unfortunately, all three did. I will make the same prediction for the 2015 class-Rosario, Sano, and Duffey. One of those three will get optioned at some point in 2016. It is the nature of the game of baseball and it is also why there needs to be a backup plan for players until they are fully established. Specific to the case of Santana, he can't get down on himself and needs to play free and easy like he did in 2014. Maybe, knowing that his role will be as a utility player going in will help. He showed he can be far better than he played this past season, so there is potential, but he has to play with confidence to approach that potential.

If Kepler and Buxton start the season in the minors, there might be considerable outfield time available for Santana. Has he ever played left or right? If he were capable in left, he could essentially be the fourth outfielder in addition to getting some starts at second and short, maybe even third. I can actually see a bench with both Nuñez and Santana on it. He's not proven in any respect, but he has tools and he sustained his over-his-head performance for over 100 games last year. He should get a lot of rope before the Twins give up on him.

I don't think 2014 should be forgotten, but it should be put in perspective. Split the difference between 2014 and 2015 and you have a fairly decent young player. Regarding his OF defense, by the end of the season last year, I thought Danny was pretty good, especially for his limited experience.

Utility IF/OF. If he hits, he could be the next Ben Zobrist, or going further back Toni Phillips. I also think the yoke of "regular SS" was too much for him. Let him fill in and if he hits, find a place for him almost every day.

I disagreed with retiring both Hrbek's and Blyleven's numbers. I would disagree with retiring Torii's as well, but he is a Twins Hall of Famer for sure. Congratulations to Hunter on a fine career.

Should have changed that moniker to "Mike wants wins Now!". Sorry, Mike. Couldn't resist.