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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    I think it is pretty likely that one of the starters is at least "nicked up" and disabled coming into the season. If no one truly disappoints, the Twins could have the luxury of being very cautious with any injury. There aren't many guys with options and too many 30+ year old starters. I hope the Twins find room for Pressly, if he is as effective as he was last year. Tonkin deserves one fair shot based on his minor league numbers. Last year's development of bullpen options in the minors was a major disappointment. This year should be different.
  2. stringer bell
    I will remind everyone here that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. If any of the guys above are signed to a major-league contract, someone will have to be designated. Right now, the DFA list would be pretty sparse, starting with someone like Kennys Vargas.
  3. stringer bell
    Pressly has an option remaining, as well. He can be the guy sent back and forth (as Tonkin was last year), but I do think he's a better option than either Abad or Meyer and probably Tonkin as well.
  4. stringer bell
    To me, there are three positions up for grabs--the last two chairs in the bullpen and center field. The job is Buxton's to win, but he must impress. As for the bullpen, Tonkin is out of options and Pressly was the more impressive pitcher last season. Abad is a lefty who has had success and Meyer has considerable upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tonkin beat out Meyer and Pressly ahead of Abad. If Buxton is sent to Rochester, I presume that Sweeney is the next guy, with most likely Danny Santana holding down center.
  5. stringer bell
    Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer won batting championships in their mid-30s, Morneau after suffering a severe concussion. If Mauer somehow managed to snag another batting championship, it might secure a spot in Cooperstown that is slipping away.
  6. stringer bell
    Despite having options, I think Pressly makes the club out of ST if healthy. He has had much more success than Tonkin. I actually hope they both make it, but I'm guessing at least one starter is temporarily placed in the bullpen.
  7. stringer bell
    Regarding Killebrew--the entire time he was in Minnesota, he was stout and slow. My guess was that he went about 220 on the 5'11" frame no matter what the baseball card said. He played three complete years in left-'62-'64, first to allow Gold Glover Vic Power to play first and one year of Bob Allison, who was a pretty good outfielder (that never made sense). Harmon was adequate at best in left field from what I remember.
  8. stringer bell
    Dozier's 2014 production would be just fine. I don't know if it was postseason pressure, injury, fatigue or pitchers figuring him out, but he was poor in the second half of the season. I still think he is a top-tier second baseman and not one easily replaced. I don't think the Twins want to waste Polanco's development and service time by setting him on the bench. They have hope for Santana coming back and being an asset as a utility guy to start the season and trying to get at-bats for both DanSan and Polanco would be difficult at best.
  9. stringer bell
    I was going to make this point elsewhere, but if Sano starts the season in the outfield, I doubt he plays more than a handful of games at third base. If he is a regular outfielder, they will keep him there (I think) and not move him about like a utility player. That has been the clear plan in the past and actually continuity is better than playing him in the OF three days, DHing him two and playing third for the other game. Of course, an injury to either of the corner guys or the DH would render this point null and void.
  10. stringer bell
    The hard contact/soft contact stat is very telling. It seems Arcia is chasing more, making contact less, with no discernible improvement in power. I know he's injured himself at least a couple of times by taking such a hard swing. He needs to tone it down incrementally, while keeping his focus--two things he hasn't been able to do. He's got talent, but he needs to channel it in order to be a good player.
  11. stringer bell
    Mason Melotakis. Coming off TJ, he hasn't been on many fan's radar, but the Twins protected him from the Rule V draft. There is a need for bullpen help and Melotakis has the stuff to take a large step this year, provided his recovery is complete.
  12. stringer bell
    I think the aberrations were exposed in the bowl games. Ohio State and Michigan have the talent and the coaching to be national contenders. Michigan State played a solid 29 minutes against this year's probable national champ, but NW and Iowa weren't as good as their records, Wisconsin is sound but unspectacular, Penn State has a ways to go while everybody else was playing so-so teams. Even with a relatively poor recruiting year, some defections after Kill left and coming off a 6-7 record, the Gophers should be able to cobble a winning record next year.
  13. stringer bell
    I wouldn't want to see that many RH bats in a row on the top of the order. Mauer should probably be in there someplace, most likely second. I don't mind Dozier hitting lower, but I think if Buxton does start the season with the Twins, he hits ninth to start, with Dozier first and Mauer likely second.
  14. stringer bell
    The Hawkeyes were great this year, but up until 2015 were in decline. Until and unless they back up this season with more dominance, I'll write it off as fluky.
  15. stringer bell
    It was a good game between evenly matched teams. The Gophers might be a bit better, but when they had half their team injured, they probably weren't. I don't have any basis for this, but I believe the MAC is equal to the leavings of the Big Ten after the high-powered teams (The Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and probably soon again Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska). The remaining ten annually are about the same as the MAC.
  16. stringer bell
    Not only does Dozier lead the league in pull percentage, he also hits the ball very weakly when it is on the right side of second base. With the exception of a homer against Corey Kluber, he has never hit a homer to the right of center and very few to center and left-center. 95% of his power to straightaway left and down the line. The point is that Dozier needs to adjust to go the other way occasionally with authority. The mid-May 2013 adjustment that made him a relative slugger also limited his ability to use the whole field IMHO. I hope he can incrementally adjust, but I think his ceiling as a hitter might be only .270. It would be nice if he drew as many walks in 2016 as he did in 2014--that would bring the OBP up to good levels and keep him as a factor in the top of the lineup.
  17. stringer bell
    I am a Twins fan and a huge Dozier fan. I saw his defense in 2013 as outstanding and SDI agreed, I viewed his defense in '14 as much less solid mostly because he made errors on plays he should have made (and if someone questions this I will explain). In 2015, I thought Dozier's defense was pretty good, he made a few less "wow" plays, but committed fewer errors. One factor in this plummeting rating might be shifting. Because he is overshifted, he may not get to balls that fall in a traditional zone for an infielder. My opinion is that Dozier is, and has been since moving to second base, a solid defensive player, but probably not elite. This specific rating shows a rapidly declining player and I haven't seen that.
  18. stringer bell
    I am a Twins fan and a huge Dozier fan. I saw his defense in 213 as outstanding and SDI agreed, I viewed his defense in '14 as much less solid mostly because he made errors on plays he should have made (and if someone questions this I will explain). In 2015, I thought Dozier's defense was pretty good, he made a few less "wow" plays, but committed fewer errors. One factor in this plummeting rating might be shifting. Because he is overshifted, he may not get to balls that fall in a traditional zone for an infielder. My opinion is that Dozier is, and has been since moving to second base, a solid defensive player, but probably not elite. This specific rating shows a rapidly declining player and I haven't seen that.
  19. stringer bell
    Welcome to TD Burt! The thing about Trevor May is that he hasn't been a top-flight starter, he projects to be one of the Twins' top five and he has exhibited tools that indicate he could be very good. The performance hasn't been there. Further, I wouldn't consider a move to the bullpen a "demotion", it would be putting May in a role to best help the team win. He's not in a position to gripe at this point.
  20. stringer bell
    Parker was a large human being, much like Sano. His listed weight was 230, but I'll bet by the late 80s, he was at least 250, if not more. He last played outfield regular in '87 at 35 years of age. Fifteen years ago, another large man played tried to be the biggest ever to play his position. His name was Duante Culpepper, who played in three Pro Bowls and was an All-Pro twice before suffering career-diminishing injuries. Finally, on to Buxton. I agree with theJacKemp, what is best for Buxton and the team long-term is what should be done. It may be best to start Buxton in Rochester, it may be best for him to start in center for the Twins. One mistake learned from Aaron Hicks would be to hit him down in the order to start.
  21. stringer bell
    I'll say it again--why the hue and cry to trade Tommy Milone? He is the most consistent starter the Twins have (worst ERA+ 90), he's experienced, under 30 and under team control. I get that we all want to see Nolasco gone, he's been ineffective and injured for two years, he's 33 and he makes three times as much money as Milone will next year, but Milone is decent and will continue to have value as long as he's decent. Every team goes through starters in the course of a year. Unless the Twins could get something substantial back that can help them this year, they should hang on to Tommy Milone.
  22. stringer bell
    Burdi couldn't handle AA last year. Nolasco has been a successful pitcher in the majors and actually threw the ball fairly well in May of last year. If Burdi succeeds and Nolasco struggles, sure make that move, but that move won't be made until some time in the season. As I've said about the position players, it is true of the pitching staff, there are very few sure things for a team with postseason aspirations. May could implode too.
  23. stringer bell
    The Hicks-Rosario discussion is interesting since they are such different hitters. Hicks is more patient, but despite being the bigger man, he doesn't drive the ball as often. Rosario is spooky aggressive, but I loved the results last year. One thing to remember Hicks was "rushed" to major leagues at 23 years of age. Rosario made his debut at the same age and he missed a half season of development with a suspension. Eddie did a lot more in his age 23 season than Aaron.
  24. stringer bell
    "arguably"-in this thread a lot of numbers and projections have been thrown out there. FIP makes May's best case, ERA his worst. If you are a slave to one advanced stat or another, then there is no argument. I know this--the Twins have a member of their staff who has always had a lower FIP than his ERA-Ricky Nolasco. He's 33 year old and has logged 1500 innings. It happens that guys don't meet their FIP, it also happens that guys have tendencies that make FIP unreliable for them-BA with RISP is a good example. As was noted earlier, xFIP shows something altogether different. It is no cinch May would be better than Milone or Nolasco for that matter. Without May, the rotation is deep, more qualified starters than spots in the rotation. The bullpen isn't as deep and adding May at the end with Jepsen and Perkins helps a lot. There is still room for another power arm in the 'pen, even if May is sent there.
  25. stringer bell
    I've liked the move of May to the BP since it happened. He had several outstanding outings in the 'pen and would add another quality arm to the end of the game. I'd still like to see one more quality arm (preferably a lefty) to have four options for the last innings. Choosing the stats puts May somewhere between the top and the bottom of the heap amongst the starters. I am of the opinion that he just another one of the #3-#5 starters, of which the Twins have an excess. In my opinion he translates best to high-leverage duty in the bullpen. The decision can be revisited later if the situation changes. I would submit that one more change in role should be it for Mr. May. I see pretty good value, but pretty big expense for the two veterans (Hughes and Santana) and I see better value due to lower cost for Gibson and Milone. I think Milone is the surest bet of prospective starters and with a projected salary of less than $5M, he would be worth much, much more on the open market. Perhaps someone will give up value to acquire Milone, but if not he belongs in the rotation.
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