stringer bell

I've resisted comment here on this topic because I think it's complicated. No one statistic is the magic bullet and Eddie Rosario is a big league talent, without question. It makes no sense to me to bench him, reduce his role, or diminish his playing time with two and a half weeks to go. That certainly seems to be the consensus of those posting on this thread and I agree wholeheartedly. Eddie's best skill is as a run producer. We can have the debate about the value of RBIs, but Rosario wants (I think more than most) to be the guy at the plate when a big hit will change the game and he has produced on balance. Eddie is not a patient hitter. While he is chasing less, he still gets in "swing mode" quite often and will swing at everything, usually making contact, but not often enough making solid contact. His OBP and slugging are in the average range for a corner outfielder. I see nothing in the advanced metrics that predicts that he will be better than that. Defensively, his metrics are somewhere between average and poor. My eyes tell me he's covering more ground this year in the field than he did in the second half last year, but he seems to come up short on making great defensive plays more often than not. The arm is strong, but too often the throw goes to the wrong base. Also, it must be considered how many outs he has cost on the bases. I think it is far more than the extra bases he might have taken, so his base running is also a net minus. All of these factors result in a WAR that is mediocre. Is WAR a perfect stat? I don't think so, but it tries to give a comprehensive look at the overall value of the player. Also, as noted, Rosario has diminished value since his best year, 2018. Eddie's value doesn't match his salary and the projected salary he would get as an arb-eligible player next year. The Twins have at least three players who project to be better offensive players than Eddie (Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker) and any of them would cost pennies of the dollar compared to Rosario in 2021. I believe one or more of the three will be ready for full-time major league duty next year, and if that is the case, it is time to say good bye to Rosario.

While the second game has to be a disappointment for the Twins, both Cleveland and Chicago had leads late and lost to inferior teams. If you're a "glass half full" person, the Twins come home after the doubleheader a half game closer to both of the teams they are chasing, having played on the road against an above .500 team. If you're a "glass half empty" type, the Twins had a chance to come home in first place facing a pitcher who has never won a start in 17 tries (some as an opener) and they had a 2-0 lead in a 7-inning game.

I just don't know how the short rest effected Dobnak. His problem was getting the ball in the strike zone and additionally the two hit batters really exacerbated an already bad situation. He had his normal velocity and the ball appears to be moving (too much?), but it was an ineffective outing. Reminds me of what happened to Hill a couple starts ago, where he had zipped through a couple innings and then couldn't find the zone.

The outfielder threw towards home and the ball was cut off. Often a runner will sacrifice himself to assure a runner scores, but that wasn’t really the case. This certainly wasn’t as stupid/foolish as running through a stop sign with nobody out, but on balance it wasn’t very smart.

Good points, but I don't think they tell the whole story. Buxton has a .241 OBP, compared to Gonzalez' .301. As far as guaranteeing a run because of Buxton's speed starting an inning on second base, yes he would be able to score on infield hoppers that wouldn't score the much slower Gonalez and a fly ball wouldn't have to be very deep to score him from third. However, given the low amount of contact that hitters produce and the fact that much of the time there is contact, the ball is popped up, I don't think the odds are appreciably higher with the speedster and Buxton never steals third base.

Unless the Twins activate Odorizzi for the doubleheader in St. Louis, they'll almost certainly do another bullpen game in one of those games. It is a bit more excusable, since they'll have two straight off days afterwards, so they won't have a compromised BP when they start their next series.

It looks like the Twins will be in third place, .5 games behind Chicago and virtually tied with Cleveland.

The Twins lost two of three to a good team in their home ballpark. That does not discourage me too much. It is a disappointment because they caught both Bieber and Clevinger when they weren't on top of their game and let them escape. Berríos also wasn't sharp, but did get 17 outs against the top-heavy Cleveland lineup. The offense continues to sputter, this series including Nelson Cruz. Getting back Donaldson will help if it is the 2019 Bringer of Rain. Same for Garver. Romo got hit and didn't have great command again. That's his third straight shaky appearance. I don't think he's a better option to close games than Taylor Rogers. Duffey pitched for the first time in a while and was lights out. I was concerned when his first pitch was a fastball at "only" 91, but he got his heater up to the mid 90s and struck out both Ramirez and Lindor on three pitches. Finally, let's hope Kepler is OK. In one plus inning he hit a homer and robbed the Tribe of multiple runs. He has a lot of value for this club.

The Twins had a good chance tonight against Bieber. It would have been nice to go up 2-0 against their closest pursuer, but the baseball gods usually even things out. They were quite fortunate to hold on the night before, so going 1-1 with Berríos on the hill for the rubber match seems about right.

For tonight, Romo, Clippard, Rogers and May are out, Thielbar, Wisler and Poppen, along with Alcala should be good to go. Duffey hasn't pitched in two days either. If Dick Mountain gives the Twins five innings, they should be good to get through the game. Columbe and Smeltzer also should be available, so having all of the pitchers seems to be the right thing to do.

You can continue the conversation about the Twins vs. Royals in the game thread in the Minnesota Twins Talk forum. Hey, in 48 hours we'll be done with the pesky Royals. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/39853-game-thread-twins-royals-705pm-cdt-8212020ad/

Lineup thoughts--Rocco does use his bench and it seemed astute last year. He seems committed to keeping Kepler in right field this year and I think that is a good idea. That does box him in with Buxton's injury because Cave is a lefty and the only practical center fielder (aside from Kepler). Polanco didn't hit the ball sharply in the last series and in his career has been a better left handed hitter. I hope Arraez can get on the field soon, but Vargas has looked pretty good to me.

It is a night game in KC, but yes Jeffers is catching back-to-back games.

Really bad news about Buxton. What happened? Ugh.

I respectfully disagree. But even if I did agree, what do you propose Twins' management should do? Have Rocco throw a tantrum? Bring up a bunch of rookies? Trade for the long awaited ace? Seriously, I think if the Twins keep hitting like they have so far, they won't last long in postseason. However, this club, with improved pitching and defense including a deep bullpen is much better equipped to win low-scoring games than last season. For the Twins to be a juggernaut, the hitters need to hit like they did last year and the starting rotation needs to hit on all cylinders.

The Twins are 16-9, a .640 winning percentage, and if they win today will have won their last three series. They have done this despite an appreciable offensive drop from players who have shown to be productive. Two Twins regulars have an OPS over .800 and no one is doing appreciably better than last year. They have gotten close to zero from their biggest offensive acquisition and very little from their newly extended first baseman and Silver Slugger catcher. It figures that in the final 35 games of this strange season they will produce closer to the level of 2019 than to continue as they have so far--Team .236 BA, .723 OPS when last year they had a team .270 BA with an .832 OPS. It appears that Donaldson will soon be ready while the struggling Garver might have to go on the injured list. Overall, the team's position player health is pretty good. If the regulars stay healthy there really isn't any place for a hitting prospect to get consistent at bats. The pitching staff has had more injuries, although none seem particularly serious. For the season, the pitching has been very good although the starters haven't gone deep in games much. I suppose there is room in the bullpen to replace Thorpe and perhaps Smeltzer, but the starting rotation will have perhaps as many as seven candidates within two weeks. Cleveland is playing well right now despite all the controversy. The Twins still look like an absolute lock for postseason. I don't think it is time to panic or even shake things up.

Garcia's double wasn't tremendously well hit, but it wasn't a pop fly either. Rogers allowed a bloop single and walked Yelich. With better luck, he gets an easy save, but he left a lot of breaking balls up. I think Taylor Rogers should have been a All-Star last year. He was that good and worked many multiple innings in the first half of the season. He hasn't been as sharp this year and everything is magnified by the truncated season. The Twins have the luxury of being nearly certain to make the expanded playoffs, so I think they can get Rogers extra rope to find sharpness or make adjustments.

I think he will be all right, but the breaking balls were up in the zone where it is much easier to lob over an infielder's head. Rogers has been far from overworked, and never really has had arm trouble. I suspect he'll be all right, but he really hasn't been sharp.

While Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez are not rangy (and probably never will be) and Miguel Sanó is still sometimes finding his way at first, there has been considerable improvement in the infield defense. It is important to make the plays that should be made and the Twins have certainly done that. I think two things were left out of this Blog Post--first what about Marwin Gonzalez? He has played regularly and been a good defender everywhere he has been assigned, including second base. Secondly, catching defense. I think Avila has been fine, but Garver has allowed too many pitches to get by him. Throwing out base stealers is hardly considered these days, but it appears that the Twins need some work on that. Another factor in the Twins'improved defense is improved health. Kepler, Garver, Adrianza, Gonzalez, Polanco and Rosario all played through injuries, particularly at the end of the season and it showed in their ability to make plays. Add in a healthy Buxton and defense should be (and is) improved.

It's not like either of those homers was a blast--particularly Dozier's. Dobnak seems to have enough late movement on almost every pitch that he induces weak contact. Eventually, I suppose, he will have days where some less than well-hit balls find grass and he leaves a few too many in hittable areas. It looks like Wes Johnson and Rocco aren't quite sold on him to work through trouble after two trips through the order, but he has earned a place in the rotation and is deserving of the praise he has gotten so far.

I was at the game when Bruno homered. The atmosphere was terrific. It seemed that everyone thought something special was happening.

Do we have any early metrics for the Twins’ fielders?

I hope they get this one in without a rain delay. You can continue discussion of tonight's game on the game thread in the Minnesota Twins Talk forum: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/39687-game-thread-814-kansas-city-royals-8-11-minnesota-twins-12-7-710pmct/

Yes, it could be seen that way. Making Gonzalez into the regular third baseman isn't a disaster, but it takes away much of Marwin's value. Having Vargas as a third do-everything utility man doesn't make sense unless someone is injured for the long term, especially since he can't be sent to St. Paul without being DFAed and he's not a young guy either.

Barring injury, I don't see any reason to recall any of the three. The Twins have Kepler, Rosario, Sanó and Cruz at the corner outfield spot, first base and DH. Only Sanó has truly struggled and he is under contract for multiple years. The player that would be replaced by the promotion of one of the prospects is Cave, but none of these prospects can play center field and to expect any of the young players to thrive with the number of at-bats that Cave is getting would be silly IMHO. I do think that youth will be served next year by the exit of either Rosario or Cruz, despite their success so far this year. Kirilloff would be the most likely to be the beneficiary since he has played quite of bit of first base plus left field. Having him share time with Sanó at first and DH, with the option of using him in left field provides the versatility that Rocco emphasizes.