stringer bell

Plouffe's split vs. RH pitching this year was a .738 OPS. That isn't near the platoon split of Mauer or Arcia. Plouffe, for 2014, showed himself to be an everyday player against all kinds of pitching.

Entering 2014, Eduardo Escobar was pegged by most as a standard-order utility infielder. He was a switch-hitter with a pretty good glove and OK speed who had demonstrated the ability to capably fill in at short, third and second. There was some chatter that EE shouldn't make the Twins coming out of spring training, but most viewed him as a good fit for the utility infielder role. Some wanted to see "Eddie 400" in 2014--that is at least 400 at-bats-- to see what the still-young Venezuelan could do with more consistent playing time.The early season gave Escobar his chance. Pedro Florimon, already seen as a subpar hitter, got off to a woeful start and Escobar got several early starts at shortstop. The rest is, as they say, history. Escobar hit .357 in April and backed that up with a .322 (.865 OPS) May. Florimon was demoted and Escobar became the de facto starting shortstop. Escobar returned to earth in June and July--his average fell to .274 at the end of June--and then he stabilized. Eduardo finished with a .275 batting average and his OPS ended at .721, good for a 102 OPS+. The season qualifies as a breakthrough. Escobar had more plate appearances than in his previous three years combined (over a year and a half in the majors). Escobar set career highs in almost every offensive category, played solid defense at three infield positions (metrics vary among the three) and showed durability. Esco still has some issues. He struck out 93 times and walked only 24, keeping his OBP relatively low at .315. Many, including myself, doubt he can replicate his extra-base numbers (35 doubles among 43 XBH). Escobar is not an explosive runner and thus will never have excellent range. All of this limits his upside to about what he was this year. Escobar ended with dramatic platoon splits. In just over 300 ABs, he had only a .654 OPS as a left-handed hitter, while in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter, his OPS was .877. It does appear that Eduardo has been a stronger RH batter throughout his limited major league career. If someone had said going into the season that the Twins would have a young switch-hitting shortstop who could field capably, and be an asset at the bottom of the order, most Twins fans would have been ecstatic and guaranteed the guy a starting spot for years. However Escobar's rise coincided with the emergence of Danny Santana, who has the speed and explosiveness that Eddie 400 lacks. Next year's role for Escobar is up in the air. He may revert to a 3-position utility guy or he could become a "10th starter" filling in for multiple infielders, but not having a specific position. If injuries occur, Escobar could slide in for whoever gets hurt. If Santana stays in the outfield, perhaps he could hold shortstop. Click here to view the article

Harmon started 40 games at third in '65. His OPS for the season was .885, so that probably lifted the OPS for the position over .700.

Physics guy--there is zero reason to sit Escobar against left handers. He was a better hitter against lefties than Plouffe, Dozier, or Santana. He was a far superior alternative to Mauer and Arcia against southpaws.

I've been thinking about Rosario for a while. He had a disappointing season in New Britain, but the young man can hit and he would fill the bill for the Twins as far as being a good fielder, with some speed in either left or center. It certainly will require both a good AFL and spring training for Rosario to threaten for a roster spot, but if the Twins don't acquire an outfielder there is room for someone to step up.

Entering 2014, I had Eduardo Escobar pegged as a standard-order utility infielder. He was a switch-hitter with a pretty good glove, okay speed who had demonstrated the ability to capably fill in at short, third and second. There was some chatter that EE shouldn't make the Twins coming out of spring training, but most viewed him as a good fit for the utility infielder role. Some wanted to see "Eddie 400" in 2014--that is at least 400 at-bats to see what the still-young Venezuelan could do with more consistent playing time. The early season gave Escobar his chance. Pedro Florimon, already seen as a subpar hitter, got off to a woeful start and Escobar got several early starts at shortstop. The rest, as they say, is history. Escobar hit .357 in April and backed that up with a .322 (.865 OPS) May. Florimon was demoted and Escobar became the de facto starting shortstop. Escobar returned to earth in June and July--his average fell to .274 at the end of June--and then he stabilized. Eduardo finished with a .275 batting average and his OPS ended at .721, good for a 102 OPS+. The season qualifies as a breakthrough. Escobar had more plate appearances than in his previous three years combined (over a year and a half in the majors). Escobar set career highs in almost every offensive category and played solid defense at the three infield positions (metrics vary) and showed durability. Esco still has some issues. He struck out 93 times and walked only 24, keeping his OBP relatively low (.315). Many, including myself, doubt that he can replicate his extra base numbers (35 doubles among 43 XBH). Escobar is not a explosive runner and thus will never have excellent range. All of this limits his upside to about what he was this year. Escobar ended up with dramatic platoon splits. In just over 300 ABs, he had only a .654 OPS as a left handed hitter, while in 131 at-bats as a right handed hitter, his OPS was .877. It does appear that Eduardo has been a stronger RH batter throughout his limited major league career. If someone would have said going into the season that the Twins would have a young switch hitting shortstop who could field capably and be an asset at the bottom of the order, most Twins fans would have been ecstatic and guarantee the guy a starting spot for years, however Escobar's rise coincided with the emergence of Danny Santana, who has the speed and explosiveness that Eddie 400 lacks. Next year's role for Escobar is up in the air. He may revert to a 3-position utility guy, he could become a "10th starter", filling in for multiple infielders, but not having a specific position. Perhaps he can hold shortstop, if Santana stays in the outfield. If injuries occur, Escobar could slide in for whoever gets hurt.

Honestly, I don't expect much more than one free agent pitcher signing, someone like McCarthy or Masterson, perhaps up to Santana. There is a need for a good defensive outfielder who can hold his own at the plate, but almost all of the available free agents are bat-first players and there aren't many who would significantly improve the defense. If the Twins get an outfielder, it probably will be through trade. Secondly, it looks like the drumbeat has really started to bring up the top prospects, ready or not. Buxton would be expected to skip two level after playing less than fifty games last year, Sano would be expected to skip one level after playing zero games in 2014. Just not feasible IMHO. Finally, Shane, I know you really like Herrmann, I just don't know why. In parts of three seasons, he has 276 PAs and an OPS+ of 53. I wouldn't call him a defensive whiz behind the plate or in the outfield and he will turn 27 this year. The much-derided Pedro Florimon has a higher OPS+ (57) despite putting up a -11 in 86 PAs this year.

Halsey, I said that Dozier's personality is the polar opposite of Knoblauch. Away from the field, Dozier reminds me of Cuddy, while Knoblauch was driven and intense all the time. On the field, Dozier is pretty intense and seems determined to get better and make the most of his abilities, which summarizes Knoblauch's time with the Twins.

Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call.I was among those who thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power when he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only four homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5 percent of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons. This year, Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms, an elbow injury and mid-year went on the DL with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching full time to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805. Mauer also had fairly dramatic platoon splits. Against left-handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against righties). No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in to decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame- worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360-foot fly balls turn into 380-foot home runs. Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter. Click here to view the article

In my book, Brian Dozier was the Twins best position player in 2013. He had a better year in 2014 and again, I think he was the best everyday player on the team. Dozier is a study in contrasts--he isn't a big guy, but has led the team in home runs the last two years. He is a converted shortstop who has become very comfortable as a second baseman. Most guys his size are told to "use the whole field", but he is perhaps the most pronounced pull hitter on the team, certainly among the right-handed hitters.In 2014, Dozier had an up and down season. He started slowly, lifted his average through June and then tailed off. Dozier hit a bunch of homers early and continued hitting an occasional long ball until the All-Star break. The power tailed off from there and he was stuck on 20 homers for a long time. He finished with 23 long balls and 21 steals, one of only a handful of Twins to ever reach 20 in both categories. One improvement Brian made throughout the season was his ability to take a free pass. He had 89 walks (3rd in the AL) and was hit by nine pitches giving him 98 passes to first base. Despite having nearly the same batting average as in 2013, he increased his OBP by 33 points to .345. Dozier scored 112 runs (second in the AL), the most by a Twin this century. He drove in 71 runs despite hitting first or second almost exclusively. Dozier's defense was highly appreciated by TD regulars in 2013 and there was carryover into 2014. He did make more than his share of web gems, but he also committed too many errors (15). Dozier is a better than average defensive second baseman, but he sometimes needs to fight the urge to try to make the spectacular play. While their personalities are polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of another Twins second sacker, Chuck Knoblauch. Each year Knoblauch added another facet to his game. Dozier added selectivity this year and I expect next year he'll be a better situational hitter or better bunter or perhaps win a Gold Glove. I think he has the desire to win and excel and the Twins need more of that. Dozier has solidified his position with the Twins. If he doesn't improve at all, he still is a better than average player who can win a game with his bat, his glove and his legs. His durability, power, defense and the fact that he'll be under team control for four more years make him desirable to other teams, but I believe he has great value for a Twins team that may be on it's way up. Expect Dozier to have another solid year in 2015 and be a major contributor when the Twins are again contenders. Click here to view the article

Great opportunities for the Twins prospects. It is crucial for Buxton to get reps at that level. I have been thinking that Rosario is my sneaky pick to make an impact with the Twins next season.

While I don't doubt that Buxton will be a premium center fielder, I'm not convinced he is there now, especially after being inactive for almost a year. It seems to me that Hicks was previewed as an excellent defender, but he's not graded out as even above-average. I am hoping that Buxton can shake off the rust quickly in the AFL. I don't think there is any guarantee that Buxton will dominate in Arizona. Obviously, it would be wonderful to have a premier talent in the lineup every day.

Why left over right? Arcia has plenty of arm for right field, and Target Field has the smaller area to patrol in right. Arcia will never be speedy or have great range.

Plouffe is a major league starting third baseman. Hicks? Needs to start the season in AAA, even if it means Jordan Schafer is the center fielder.

I fully expect to see both Sano and Buxton in he majors sometime in 2015. I think the idea of using a year of service time for them to be in over their heads would by doubly bad for the Twins front office. Secondly, I really don't see the need to push Sano because Plouffe is a capable third sacker. OTOH, if Buxton shines in the AFL and then is the best OF in the spring, I can almost see him coming north quickly, if not on Opening Day. First of all, he would offer better defense than we've seen in center and perhaps move a good defender to left, improving the defense there. Secondly, even if he struggles, his great speed might keep him out of batting slumps. I'm sure the front office really would like to get 6.1 to 6.9 years out of both BB and MS, so I really doubt they will break camp with the club.

I don't know if it was his last error, but the one I remember clearly was Dozier ranging a long way to his left and trying to start a double play. There was a runner on third (tying or lead run) and he really needed to take the safe out, but made a bad throw to second. If the team was two runs ahead, it would be a no-brainer to throw to first.

Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call. I was among those that thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power as long as he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only 4 homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5% of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons. Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms and an elbow injury and getting disabled with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching fulltime to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805. Mauer had pretty dramatic platoon splits. Against left handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against right handers). No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360 foot fly balls turn into 380 foot home runs. Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter.

MLB Trade Rumors report that bench coach (and former Bucs manager) John Russell will likely be interviewed when the O's are done playing.

I didn't include some split information on Dozier. His strong last week made his post-All Star numbers look pretty good after many had noted how he tailed off in the second part of the season. Dozier's post All-Star OPS ended up at .739 (pre All-Star .776) and he actually improved his OBP (.352 post All-Star break). Where Dozier slowed down was his power-speed numbers (five homers and five steals after the break). In addition, Brian did a good job evening out his platoon splits in 2014. His OPS vs. LH pitching was .804, while vs. RH pitching it was a still-solid .743.

In my book, Brian Dozier was the Twins best position player in 2013. He had a better year in 2014 and again I think he was the best everyday player on the team. Dozier is a study in contrasts--he isn't a big guy, but has led the team in home runs the last two years. He is a converted shortstop who has become totally comfortable as a second baseman. Most guys his size are told to "use the whole field", but he is perhaps the most pronounced pull hitter on the team, certainly among the right handed hitters. Dozier had an up and down season. He started slowly, lifted his average through June and then tailed off. Dozier hit a bunch of homers early and continued hitting an occasional long ball until the All-Star break. The power tailed off from there and he was stuck on 20 homers for a long time. He finished with 23 long balls and 21 steals, one of only a handful of Twins all time to reach 20 in both categories. One improvement Brian made throughout the season was his ability to take a free pass. He had 89 walks (3rd in the AL) and was hit by nine pitches giving him 98 walks to first base. Despite having nearly the same batting average, he increased his OBP by 33 points to .345. Dozier scored 112 runs (2nd in the AL), the most by a Twin in this century. He drove in 71 runs despite hitting first or second almost exclusively. Dozier's defense was highly appreciated by TD regulars in 2013 and there was a carryover into 2014. He did make more than his share of web gems, but he committed too many errors (15). Dozier is a better than average defensive second baseman, but he needs to fight the urge to try to make the spectacular play sometimes. While their personalities are polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of another Twins second sacker, Chuck Knoblauch. Each year Knoblauch added another facet to his game. Dozier added selectivity this year and I expect next year he'll be a better situational hitter or better bunter or perhaps win a Gold Glove. I think he has the desire to win and excel and the Twins need more of that. Dozier has solidified his position with the Twins. If he doesn't improve at all, he still is a better than average player who can win a game with his bat, his glove and his legs on the bases. His durability, power, and defense and the fact that he'll be under team control for four more years make him desirable to other teams, but I believe he has great value for a Twins team that may be on it's way up. I expect Dozier to have another solid year in 2015 and be a major contributor when the Twins again are contenders.

The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and his eventual successor Miguel Sano was injured early in spring training and was out for the entire season.Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in April with a robust .892 OPS. Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. From then on, he played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time. One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw. Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right-handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010. Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be healthy next year, hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and figures to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary--he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility-- would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams. I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up early, it is quite possible Plouffe will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come from him. However, depending on Sano's role, there is a possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform. Click here to view the article

I'm trying to stitch together these postseason looks at players (I'll scrap "post mortem") between long days at work and other activities. I had intended to mention Arcia's visibility in the dugout and his obvious enthusiasm, but it didn't make it into the blog entry. Also, my entry looks pretty pessimistic, but I didn't mean it that way. As far as comps, I remember more than one mentioning Bobby Abreu as well as Ordoñez.