stringer bell

Goodrum is 2.5 years younger and Simmons hasn’t put up an OPS+ over 94 since 2018 and the 94 was in 30 games in 2020. I don’t think it is a lock that he’ll rebound to major league average.

Shortstops become utility players for one of two reasons: a) they can’t hit enough to be a regular or b) they are good enough in the field. I thought b was more likely in Goodrum’s case but his defense numbers from B-Ref say he’s average at the toughest defensive position. Goodrum hasn’t hit much the last two years (except against the Twins), so I guess that is why the Kitties let him go.

Yes, I like the idea too. He would have to be brought in as the starter at shortstop until Lewis is ready, I would think. The Twins already have three guys who should be major leaguers (Gordon, Miranda, Arraez) who are multi-position infielders with perhaps some ability to also play in the outfield. Two of their best hitters (and most durable last year) play 2b and 3b, making it hard to find at bats for the multi-position guys to get on the field. I have (admittedly distant) personal connection with Goodrum. During spring training 2015, my brother engaged Niko's dad in a long conversation during a minor league scrimmage and I mostly listened. The crux of the conversation is that Niko needed to play, it didn't matter at what level and it didn't matter what position. From that point I kept track of Niko and he got plenty of playing time, I believe at High A and AA. In 2016, Goodrum broke out a bit in Rochester and got a cup of coffee with the Twins in 2017, when the team got a wild card.

I would think that diminished velocity is a huge red flag for any bounceback candidate, unless they demonstrate that the velocity will be there in the coming season. I'm on board with signing one or two non-budget busters looking for a return to effectiveness, if well-researched. No team ever seems to have enough pitching. Look at what was left in the World Series and look at the White Sox. At midseason Chicago had really only used their five starters and all but Keuchel were very good. That isn't how they finished.

I’ll agree with the OP that more production from LF is needed. With Buxton in center, a less than great defender in left is a bit easier to paper over. Assuming good health in the infield, this is a place for Arraez. Having a legitimate glove for a fourth/fifth OF would allow for late-inning defense replacement. I think Larnach (fully healthy) might seize the position as early as Spring Training. He was beat up on his lower body most of his last month with the Twins. Kirilloff (with Sanó at first) could figure in, as well.

Isn’t that the point? These are guys who haven’t blossomed in professional baseball who just might break out.

Its a pet peeve of mine that so much importance is placed on hitting and pitching coaches, particularly for veterans. Simmons may or may not hit better next year, but I think any improvement would be on the player, not the coach. I’ll chime in that a one-year contract for half (or less) of his 2021 salary would be worth doing, with the condition that he isn’t somehow a distraction in the clubhouse. I certainly don’t agree with Simmons’ stance on COVID vaccination, but I don’t think that alone should eliminate him from consideration. He’s a fine defensive player at a critical position with a history of being an acceptable hitter. He was a terrible offensive player last year.

How much first base has Rooker played? Arraez? I’ve seen Rooker listed as a first baseman, but it seems to me the club has no interest in playing him there. The consensus seems to be that Miranda, Arraez and Gordon should all be on the roster for most of the coming season. Obviously, injuries will occur, but it doesn’t seem to be workable to have all three as non-regulars (utility players) and still bring in a shortstop from outside the system. Moving Sanó to DH most of the time makes room for Kirilloff, but doesn’t really make room for Miranda and Arraez

That was my thought as well. If Rodriquez and Pineda are available for the salaries listed, the Twins should get them both.

According to BBRef, Arraez profiles pretty close to average as a defender. He has positive numbers in both Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average and BIS Total Runs Saved Above Average at second base in both 2020 and 2021. He was one run below average in Total Zone Fielding at third in 2021 and zero runs in left field. The BIS numbers are better--three runs saved in left and five at third. Overall Arraez' defensive numbers look decent except for his rookie year. I'll edit to add that Arraez is far from a complete player. He lacks power and speed and has been injured a fair amount, but in the batter's box, he sees a lot of pitches, makes contact at a high rate and gets on base more than any other Twin.

Kirilloff and Larnach aren't rookies. I do agree that relying on five guys with less than a year's big league experience makes no sense until you're the '82 Twins or the Orioles, Pirates, or D-backs.

It seems that Lewis has the tools to be a good defensive SS. Some people aren't cut out for it though, although most every infielder that plays professionally started as a shortstop, even Sanó. I would agree that he probably will start in the minors, perhaps at Wichita, next year. It is going to take some time to get up to full speed.

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24.

I wonder if we could get the OP to give us percentages at various positions. For example, on Lewis, is it 50% CF, 40% SS, or (in his opinion) is it a 90% chance that Royce will be in CF? Same for Martin. Same for Miranda. I am disappointed to see someone as plugged in as Cody sees neither Martin or Lewis as a long-term shortstop. It would be great to plug in one guy for five years at that crucial defensive position. I haven't seen much of either Lewis or Martin firsthand. I did see Lewis take Wheeler deep in an exhibition game in March of 2020, but when ST comes along next year that will be two years ago. What I am reading says that Lewis has superior tools and could develop into a special player. Martin has shown OBP skills and would have a floor of being a solid major league player. Miranda had a monster year at the highest level of minor league ball. Any or all of them could be playing for the Twins next year.

Three things: 1) Ehire Adrianza was (and is) a legitimate shortstop. That factor increases his value greatly. Gordon can't make that claim. 2) Not sure about this, but if Gordon has no options remaining, trying to send him to the minors probably would end his time in Minnesota. 3) Adrianza and Gonzalez are both switch hitters without discernible platoon splits. Gordon hits left handed and isn't a great fit for (limited) platoon duty, especially with Arraez around without a regular postion.

Kirilloff started 30 games in the outfield, 25 at first base, mostly when Sano was on the injured list. Yes, I agree that AK will eventually be a first baseman, but it would make sense for him to log more than a few games with Donaldson, Sano and Garver as DHs and perhaps Garver and Sano as as first base options.

We're dealing with SSS at the major league level, but Garlick hit five homers in 107 PAs, while Rooker connected nine times in 213 PAs. My math says Garlick hits it over the fence more frequently. Garlick would appear to be a better defender and he does have great splits against left handed pitching. He is almost three years older than Rooker. Yeah, I suppose if the choice came down to Garlick and Rooker, I would keep Rooker, but honestly I really don't see much future for either player. I certainly agree that the Twins need a bit more variety in their offense who could create runs by other means than hitting the ball over the fence.

I'm not a fan of Rooker. He has too many holes in his swing and is a poor outfielder. He will be 27 next year, so he's not really a prospect at this point. Finally, he has never hit left handers particularly well and that continued in his 200+ PA audition this year.

I think the keys for both Refsnyder and Coulumbe are surviving a forty man roster. The salary is of little impact, but keeping either of them instead of a minor leaguer with more upside would seem foolish.

I don't think anyone is suggesting moving both Garver and Polanco, I certainly wasn't. What I did say that both players held enough value to get a good return, perhaps enough to give the chance to contend next year, if a lot of other things go right. I looked back at my original post on this topic and it could be interpreted that " a couple of players" were both Polanco and Garver. I didn't intend to infer that. To me, trading a replaceable regular coming off a good year and signing the right free agents along with a lot of other things going right might be enough to get back to contention.

I think the Twins need improvement from the shortstop position on offense, but the defense at short has to be acceptable. Simmons was more than acceptable in the field, but the numbers show how bad he was with the bat. If the brain trust believes either Martin or Lewis can seize short it might make sense to save some money and sign a stopgap. I don’t want to see Simmons with the Twins any more. Considerable capital needs to be expended on a starting pitcher or two (one acquired by trade, one free agent?). Finally, no on Cruz. He’ll be 42 at midseason and he hasn’t torn it up for Tampa. But the real reason he’s no longer a fit is that they have several guys who can rotate as DHs and really can’t afford to carry a DH only IMHO.

To get better fast, the Twins will have to move a couple of players who had good seasons in 2021 (and thus high value). The next consideration is if they are replaceable from within. Polanco and Garver meet those criteria (also perhaps Donaldson). Those are the players to move and get a big return. Arraez would seem to be replaceable as well. He will hit and I don't think his defense is poor. Miranda plays the same positions as Arraez and offers some power potential. My final thought on this topic is in reference to Alex Kirilloff. I do think he will become an All-Star and he might win batting championships. However, he only had a couple hundred plate appearances and he's been dogged by a bad wrist. I think the injury problems take away from labeling him a sure thing and writing his name in the proposed starting lineup in ink. As a first baseman/corner outfielder he has to hit well above average to be a star. I think there's a chance of that, but I don't think we have any guarantees.

I'll start by pointing out that hindsight is 20-20. Particularly among position players, things usually even out in the course of a full year. Baldelli started the season with Donaldson injured in the first inning and a bunch of experienced position players not hitting including Garver, Sanó, Polanco and Kepler, as well as Cave, who due to injuries got a lot of playing time in the crucial first six weeks. Rocco stuck with all of them, which makes sense. Some guys came out of it, a couple namely Kepler and Cave, did not. Simmons was so anemic on offense, that his very good defense was negated by being a black hole at the bottom of the order. On the pitching side, Columé was dreadful, but guys like Duffey, Alcala and Thielbar weren't getting crucial outs. All four of those guys came out of it to a degree, although Columé was barely passable all season as a bullpen arm. In the rotation, Happ and Shoemaker started April with better than acceptable numbers, but both were beyond bad after their first few starts. The expected starting pitcher depth didn't develop as planned--Dobnak got knocked around and was injured, Duran wasn't great in AAA and got injured, Balazavic was injured immediately and inconsistent at Double A and so starts were given to Ober (success!) Barnes, Jax and Albers, none of whom were expected to contribute this year or maybe ever. Canterino, Winder and Enlow were all injured along with the aforementioned Duran so the high ceiling guys did not move up the ladder as anticipated. I think those things were largely out of Baldelli's control. Add in injuries to Buxton, who missed 100 games, and Garver, who missed more than 50, and it can be understood that maybe they wouldn't win the division or make the playoffs. I didn't like some of Rocco's decisions, but he had a roster with no real backup shortstop and bench players who are bat-first and mostly slow. As far as pitching decisions go, I would have liked to see the starters challenged to pitch a sixth or seventh inning more often, but I understand the concern that there isn't much in the tank after facing 18-20 hitters with max-effort fastballs and breaking balls and the possibility of injury does go up at some point. If I am grading the manager, I'd give him a C, which is average. I think the front office deserves a worse mark in providing talent for the major league team.

Both players changed teams at the trade deadline, why didn't you include the entire year for both? If you want to make an argument to bring either player in maybe they should be considered for the same period of time.

I think Refsnyder is a certain drop. He has no minor league options, did not even hit at replacement level, he's no longer considered an infield option and he's 30. Yes, he hit for a couple weeks, but that appears to be an aberration. If the team can sign him to a minor league contract, he could try his luck in St. Paul again and see if the injuries pile up as they did this year. I haven't mentioned Cave either. He's a capable outfielder, but his hit tool seems broken. To be a backup outfielder who would be penciled in for occasional starts on a corner, you have to be somewhat of a threat with the bat and Cave has hit worse than a backup catcher.