stringer bell

When I worked for the Postal Service, they had positions known as "unassigned regular". I believe that is what Marwin Gonzalez will be for the Twins. While I'm being arbitrary in going back two seasons and using WAR, a stat I have some trouble with, Marwin does have a higher WAR in the past two years than any player on the Twins' roster. I presume he will get as many plate appearances as anyone, just not at one specific position. Gonzalez has gotten full-time work (more than 500 PAs) on a team that won over 100 games each of the last two years. Will the 2019 Twins be better than that? With the addition of Gonzalez, they have a buffer if a player they are counting on this year doesn't pan out. They don't have a player in the minors who is ready to be a major league regular, so it will be good to have a proven major league regular available when the need arises. It's a bonus that wherever Gonzalez lands, he would figure to be at least league-average defensively. It is also really good to add a switch-hitter who has pretty even splits. When all the Astros were healthy the past two years, Gonzalez didn't play much at second, short and third. Then again, the 'Stos have All-Stars (and potential MVPs) at all three of those positions. I actually think Gonzalez would be fine defensively in the middle infield or third base. I can't find the quote, but his manager said he was as good defensively at every position for the Astros as the nominal regular.

Escobar and Gonzales are similar players, but Gonzales is more versatile. He played more 1B and LF than anything else last year. The lack of depth at second, short, and third in the high minors would mean trouble if Sano, Polanco or Schoop is injured or ineffective, it could be a season-killer. Marwin covers all of those spots and more and can be a platoon partner with anyone who struggles against same-side pitching.

I went four consecutive years with my older brother. Always enjoyable. Everyone is friendly and accommodating. You’ll never get closer to the players. We especially enjoyed watching minor league games on the back fields. My brother had a long conversation one year with Niko Goodrum’s dad. I met Jared Burton’s grandparents at a game and another time had a long conversation with a writer for Minor League baseball. My favorite experience was doing an impromptu Q & A with Terry Ryan. He was watching two minor league games and about a half-dozen of us fans peppered him with questions. I remember he was honest and didn’t dodge any questions. I don’t think fans could ever ask for better access than that. I had planned to come this year, but I’ve put it off ‘til 2020. Any baseball fan should go if they have the chance.

Sanó is much more replaceable than Garver unless he becomes the elite slugger we envisioned in his rookie year. How long does the team give him a spot on the field and in the lineup based on potential? At some point, it has to be basis of performance, and Miguel’s hasn’t been good since the first half of ‘17.

Such an eneven season! Shellacked by the likes of Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland (and Iowa), but then good wins against Purdue, Fresno and Wisconsin. A really young team who lost too many of their proven veterans, but still competed at the end. With so many young guys returning, they could/should take a step forward.

For about 40 playing minutes, the Gophers looked like a competent college football team. The other 20 minutes were really, really bad. There is talent there. I think the coach is more than a motivational speaker/salesman, but there is a long way to go.

Buxton and Sano have some similarities, but real differences too. They are similar ages and have both shown All-Star performance, but never for a full year. Sano looked like a certain star his rookie year and then in the first half of 2017, while Buxton looked like he was emerging in the last half of last year. With the position he plays and the defense he brings, Buxton is an asset as an average hitter, especially since his speed makes him such an asset on the bases. Sano has to be well above average at the plate, because he plays a corner (not especially well) and he isn't a game-changer on the bases. I do agree that Sano needs to alter both his attitude and approach. It is not okay to strike out 40% of the time. The .199 batting average and .679 OPS aren't pretty. Buxton's numbers were pathetic as well. He needs to find an approach at the plate that works and stick with it. If the Twins are to contend in 2019, one or both of these guys needs to realize much more of their potential than we saw in 2018.

from RB: The Indians could have been better prepared for the addition of Josh Donaldon, if Ramirez played some 2B during the year and Kipnis played some CF instead of coming in cold in September. Of course Kepler can and should play 1B on occasion in 2019. I believe Rosario could play some IF if needed. Doing so will provide our new manager more options to work in the 2019 World Series. Prepare for Success and Prepare for Failure. Depth and Flexibility is how it's done. Ramirez played a lot of second prior to last year, plus some outfield and Kipnis spent time in the outfield this year earlier, at least that is my recollection. Regarding Kepler at first--I think it's a good idea to have him in the mix. Given the injury history of Sano and the questions about Austin, the Twins might be in a situation for a lot of games that they need to get Cave, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler into the game, with none of them being the DH. That would be predicated on Kepler being a better offensive player than he has been the last two years, but I think that might happen. Regardless, positional flexibility is a plus.

I’ve beaten the drum for Iglesias since September. I’ll add Martin Gonzales as another target. He was All-Star level in ‘17 and still above average 102 OPS+ this year. Historically he’s at least a league-average defensive shortstop and he’s truly versatile. He will be 30 in the spring and want starter money.

I am with Chief on this discussion. Shortstop remains very important and even though less balls are put in play, it is crucial to turn outs into outs. Polanco is a very nice offensive player for a middle infielder, but he cost too many outs with his defense last year.

Odorizzi has to average more than 5 innings a start. His overall numbers are fine, but it weighs on the bullpen too much to go short as often as he did. If you have three or four guys that average six or more, then you can get away with an Odorizzi at #4 or #5. I would like to see the Twins stick with 12 pitchers all year and maybe juggle a little and have 11 for some period of time. That would require having guys that more often than not work into the seventh inning. I'm hopeful Pineda and Meija (or Stewart or Gonsalves) are able to go deep pretty often.

I don’t think Berrios is an obvious choice. Gibson pitched more innings, had a better ERA, and was far more consistent. Anecdotally, it seems to me that Gibson had more starts against the elite teams in the AL and fared well against the best. Yes, Berrios has a brighter future, but for today it was a very close call and I’d pick Gibson because of less poor starts and the ability to adjust when he came out with something short of his best stuff. Edit: Honest I didn’t see the post above when I made my post! Nice post jkcarew.

I would imagine he didn’t get more double plays than previous seasons, but that he still got more than average. This is what I liked about 2018 Kyle Gibson—he pitched well in some starts when he didn’t get a lot of swings and misses. Some games, it was a lot of grounders, other games, fanned more than one per inning. Regardless of what might be working for him in a specific outing, he usually found a way to be effective, as evidenced by 18 Quality Starts.

On Gibson, I’m not a stat maven, but wouldn’t guys who induce a lot of double plays always have a higher FIP? While luck enters into strand stats, I think the mental part of the game matters more and I think Gibson has become a smarter pitcher.

I think Gibson is deserving. I think Taylor Rogers is more deserving. Rogers posted career bests in virtually every category. His last 2 months were about as good as it gets. Going back to July 30–26 IP 10 H 0 R 3 BB 29 K. From May 1–57.2 IP 33 H 10 ER 12 BB 68 K 1.57 ERA.

Much appreciated summary Tom. I think Gibson has had an overall better season than Berrios. His K totals seem to have fallen a bit late in the season, but he still got to the 8th inning today. Gibson is at 190 IP, and is still competitive on the mound.

I'll scattergun here a bit--yes drop some dead wood on the 40-man! Granite,Petit, Duffey, Slegers, perhaps Curtiss or Busenitz, although I like the latter two's live arms. I like Meija, and think he definitely should be kept. Berrios is now an "All-Star" to me. I think it was borderline that he was named in the first place, and he's been lackluster most of the second half. That said, he's young and could become dominant. Sure, extend him, but don't expect an ace, at least not yet. Add a 1-3 starter, absolutely, and that will cost either money or talent. Corner infield depth--absolutely. I personally think Austin is a better hitter than what Sano has become and I don't know what happened to the guy who came up in mid-2015 (or the first third of 2017). There should be all kinds of doubts about Sano's durability as well as his ability after this year. We've seen more than glimpses, but less than sustained excellence. As for Buxton, how about a decent guaranteed contract (maybe two years) with performance bonuses that are good rewards for staying on the field. Again a half season (second half of '17) showed that he can do it.

The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment. The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory. I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching. The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch. I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer. The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.

With all of the disappointments Gopher football has presented in the past half century, I'll put the over/under at 7 and be satisfied with a minor bowl. OTOH, the homer in me wants 9 wins and a pig and ax in the trophy case.

Aren’t the high walks the expected downside for getting away from pitch-to-contact and having a staff full of “strikethrowers”? Another thing is that “putaway pitch”. Without it, long counts and eventually walks. Certainly, this is the case for Gonsalves. Some of the others have had the same phenomenon, probably Odorizzi more than anyone else.

As noted in the Minor League section, Busenitz was very good in Rochester this year. He has been poor with the big club. Last year, he was pretty good with the Twins.

Looking through Odorizzi's stats at this point in the season, he is pretty much the same pitcher he's always been. Too many pitches, too many short starts, but satisfactory numbers for a guy in the back of the rotation. His walks and strikeouts are up, his hits per IP are down, but there are no dramatic changes. A contending team can send him out every five days, but they need to have three or four better guys, especially if the team wants to have "only" a seven-man bullpen.

I've always been a Rogers fan, and as noted above he's taken a real step forward this year. I would also note that the velocity is up considerably on the fastball, which seems to make the rest of his stuff even better. Reed will be back. I hope whatever is wrong is fixed, either with rest or surgery. He seemed like an excellent signing and looked good early, but for most of the season he has been brutal.

I want Kepler in the conversation at first. It seems his weakest tool as an outfielder is his arm, which would be minimized at first. He's tall, surehanded and a lefty, with some experience in the minors. It would give Jake Cave more playing time and putt together a pretty formidable lineup against RH pitching.

I like Hawkins, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Smalley in that order. I heard enough from Hunter in one series. On the other topic, yes make Polanco a second baseman and sign a shortstop. Iglesias now of the Tigers would be a good fit.