stringer bell

How many games have we seen like this? I can’t think of many, mostly because the starters have been so consistently good.

Yes, I get it. As far as I’m concerned, why play Kepler four days out of five until Gallo returns. Further, I don’t think it makes sense to stack so many left handed hitters, but the alternative needs to be a better player than Kyle Garlick.

Increasing the K lead.

I thought about posting a “Larnach vs. Wallner” thread. Apparently Trevor is still first in line. He can play both left and right and is a decent fielder—much better than Wallner. This doesn’t get Kepler out of the lineup. Also it doesn’t provide space for more than one of Gallo/Kepler/Wallner.

Let’s get it!

We’ve seen it over and over. “He’ll be 100% the day after tomorrow.” Then two days later, the guy can’t go. Players recover at different rates. My (sad) prediction about Correa has more to do with the long-term probability that the injury isn’t healed and will recur. I hope I’m wrong and that CC plays like a Top Teenty player again.

Then why late so long on the lineup?

Absolutely.

Did anyone on TD in April say “thank goodness for Castro”.

I have to believe it went down to the wire on whether they would IL Buxton. Garlick lives! I’ll make a bold prediction that either Lewis or Correa hits the IL before the Twins return home.

Lineup posted. Correa in, Larnach in. Buxton and Lewis out. So it must be either Buck on IL or Garlick to St. Paul.

Actually I expect the drama is over who to take off the active roster and then make a lineup.

Rocco is calling his time out?

Concur. Can CC go? How about Buck? Since Kirilloff ended Sunday’s game in the on-deck circle, I’d presume he’s good to go.

Wallner couldn't be recalled if the corresponding move is an option or DFA. Wallner could replace someone placed on IL.

Since the Rays are now going with three right handers, will Garlick get swapped out with either Wallner (the people's choice?) or Larnach?

We're at a point in the season where it isn't SSS and MAT has a better OPS against RH pitching than Max does. If the other eight spots proceed as expected, having Taylor and his 86 OPS+ in center isn't a big problem. Having Kepler and his 76 OPS+ is by far the larger problem.

If he stays healthy, Lewis will fill a major role on the Twins this year and beyond. It may or may not be third base.

A lot of players are confronted by the reality that not much is guaranteed. Kepler May end up in “prove it” territory or maybe will have to be a minor league signing next year, depending on how the final 100 games go this year. Or the challenge could be presented earlier by way of a DFA. Either way, that challenge might spur him on. He really needs a change. I’ll add that my expectations for Kepler upon his arrival was a .280/20/80 guy with an OPS around .800 for the better part of a decade. I wonder if all the homers in ‘19 “ruined” Max Kepler.

I won’t comment on the COVID issue, but reading between the lines Gleeman & Bonnes have indicated that Kep was more accommodating about being on the IL than a guy like Gallo and also waiting a few extra days before being activated. Is this a vet player knowing his body or someone who doesn’t have a burning desire? Dunno, but I do think he’s a different breed of cat.

You do mean outfielder, correct?

I'll add this item here and bump my earlier post. The Twins have only two players that average 3.1 plate appearances or more per game, the amount of plate appearances required to be considered for leadership in rate statistics like batting average, slugging and OPS. No other team has less than four. Why is this? Most injuries, I guess--here's a walk around the diamond: First base--Joey Gallo started here and Alex Kirilloff has gotten the majority of at-bats since he was activated. Gallo has played in the outfield and most likely will continue there, but he is on his second IL stint. Second base--long time regular Jorge Polanco also started on the IL and has had a subsequent IL stint. Shortstop--Correa is the starter and is qualified, but has been dogged by a foot injury. Third base--Jose Miranda started at third, but was demoted. Kyle Farmer replaced Miranda until Royce Lewis came off the IL. Lewis has 25 at-bats, but looks like he'll get the bulk of third base at-bats going forward. Left field--Trevor Larnach started there and has the most time there. He was optioned briefly to AAA and now is on the Injured List, due to return any time. Center Field--Michael A Taylor has the majority of starts in center, but hits in the bottom of the lineup and has been pinch hit for frequently. Right Field--Max Kepler started the season there, but has two Injured List stints. He's also hitting under .200 and is a replacement candidate. Catcher--Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers have shared catching, with neither averaging much more than two plate appearances per game. DH--Despite missing the last three games, Byron Buxton has enough plate appearances to qualify.

Celestino has played in two games for the Mighty Mussels, getting two hits in five at bats, with a double and two strikeouts.

Run scoring really is the ultimate measure of the team's offense and the Twins haven't been that bad. All of the strikeouts and weak contact are not very entertaining and the Twins' inconsistency doesn't give many of us confidence that they will improve in the remaining 60% of the season. In this era, it is really tough to put together three or more hits in an inning and put up a crooked number. It is also difficult to produce runs with productive outs. We've seen Twins pitchers work out of those situations frequently. The Twins are extreme in strikeouts, on a record breaking pace. They are among the top teams at drawing walks and in the upper quadrant of homers, so they are probably the most "three true outcomes" team in MLB. I think it is sometimes boring and a roller coaster, but that is most of what the roster is. The disappointing performance of Buxton and particularly Correa shortens the lineup. Their return to their norms plus the addition of Polanco, Krilloff and Lewis could make for a more productive and diversified lineup. The Twins seem to specialize in having key parts injured or unavailable, but if they could put together a lineup featuring their best hitters (not Max Kepler), they could and should score more runs more often.

Max Kepler has been a topic of discussion for much of this season. After two subpar years, many on this board were ready to cut bait for the second-longest tenured Twin before the season started. His performance since the start of the season has only increased the scrutiny on him, his spot on the roster and in the batting order. Kepler started the seaon in the deep freeze and after he got his first two hits of the season, he went on the IL. Coming back from the Injured List, he started to hit acceptably but had another trip to the IL and this time he has struggled mightily. Max's overall numbers in 140 PAs include a .640 OPS and 77 OPS+. For a right fielder, those numbers are unacceptable. He has accumulated only .1 WAR, because of his still very good defense. It is up to the Twins' front office to decide if they want to part company with Kepler. At this point, betting on better performance from either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner should be a worthy gamble, and really not much of a risk. Max's batting average has decreased every year since 2019 (26 y.o. year) as has his OPS and OPS+. There just doesn't look to be any upside. The options for parting company include a DFA and a trade. Looking at a trade, which might give some value for a player who once was valuable, one needs to look at who might be interested and what those interested would be willing to give in return. There are other teams that haven't had great production from their corner outfielders, including some that figure to contend. I would assume most of those teams are not looking for a veteran, but will try players from their own system and what they are willing to give for Kepler would be minimal unless the Twins take on Max's salary ($8.5M), I can't imagine any non-contender would be interested. A DFA would mean the approximately $5M owed Kepler (+ $1M buyout) would be lost. I doubt the Twins want to do that right now, particularly given the injury history of many players who would figure to replace Kepler. In my opinion, the thing to do as this time is to recall a replacement for Kepler and carry him as a backup outfielder. This plan isn't as simple as all that. Kepler won't be happy with a demotion and there currently isn't room on the active roster for him. Max is the second most senior player on the team and is a well-regarded professional. What to do with Max Kepler?