stringer bell

So, Miranda for Lewis. Time to give the young man another chance, I suppose. Matt Wallner probably is saying "what do I have to do?" but it would be hard to get him at-bats.

Not a depressing win outside of the injury to Lewis. Ober, López, Gray, Ryan and Maeda really do give the club a chance every time out.

I looked at June stats for both the Twins hitters and pitchers, in a losing month. Probably the most damning statistic was the strikeout disparity--275 for the hitters vs. 233 for the pitching staff. In the course of an entire month, things level out a bit. Surprisingly, Willi Castro only had a .555 OPS in June, worse than any of the usual suspects--Gallo, Kepler, Buxton or Correa--for the month. Just not outstanding production from the corner outfielders or first base. Of course, the guys with the big guaranteed contracts continued to underproduce. Yes, they can part with a Gallo or Kepler and probably get similar production from Wallner, but for real improvement for the rest of the year, Buxton and Correa need to be closer to the top of their game than the bottom. The team ERA for June was just over 4 for the month, certainly not terrible. Ryan and Gray regressed to the mean and López continued his mediocre results despite better than that advanced metrics. The starters ate innings with the exception of Maeda and Varland. The bullpen was pretty good with the exception of Jorge López. If the Twins can continue to pitch with around a 4 ERA, it should be good enough to be above .500 for the next month. Speaking of the next month, the schedule looks pretty .....soft with the exception of the Orioles. Baltimore is the only team that currently has a winning record on the Twins July schedule and the Twins play nine games against Oakland and KC.

Well, today we can turn the page, to July. It is an incredibly long season. The Twins spent the majority of the first half trying to push back against the rule changes and win games with the three true outcomes approach. They've been blessed with good health with their top four starters and bullpen ace, making them competitive despite a woeful offense. I think there's enough talent to be better in the second half offensively. Let's hope that some hitters make adjustments to have a more consistent offense.

Still too many strikeouts (11 in 43 PAs), but it seemed a couple guys tried to go oppo with two strikes and there was 2 strike hitting and hits with RISP. The guys who have been singled out for poor hitting (Gallo, Correa, Kepler and Buxton) all had good games. Carry it over for a week guys and build some good habits.

Starting lineup is posted and both Kepler and Gallo are in there, as well as both Correa (leadoff!) and Buxton (3rd), so it appears no player transactions will happen. I guess we'll see if there is a better effort. I don't want to say that the effort hasn't been there all year. It is hard to appear engaged when walking back to the dugout after a strikeout. I think there is a real need to adjust their approach. Tonight's starter for Baltimore averages less than a strikeout per inning--maybe the team should also strike out less than once per inning.

Maybe this is nit-picking, but I would dispute the word "destructive". The Twins subtracted an All-Star level hitter and added an above average starting pitcher. Both players have injury histories. The two positions that Arraez would have played have been filled by Polanco/Kirilloff/Julien, who have been among the better hitters on the team (certainly not on the level of Arraez). I don't think the trade "destroyed" anything and still could wind up to be a positive. The results thus far have certainly benefited the Marlins, but the season is only half over.

I agree with a couple of criticisms of Carlos Correa. He doesn't bust it down the line on ground balls which is a bad example to the non-established players on the club. Most players don't run as hard as they can on routine grounders, maybe they are conserving energy or trying to avoid injury, but it's not a good look. Correa is also really slow home to first, with a big swing where his momentum is pointing away from first base, which contributes to his high GDP rate. Correa's attempts to be a team leader are fine, but he has to back it up on the field and aside from a couple of big late-inning homers, he has hurt the team in those opportunities. He's only 28 years old and like both Buxton and Polanco, seems to play like he's much older. Less than a week ago, I saw he was still wearing a back belt in the dugout--perhaps that injury and his plantar fasciitis have hindered him so that he's been this bad.

I very much fear that day will never come. If he had knee surgery in October and eight months later, he can't play center field, I think it is more likely he'll never play center field again than he'll be back out there five or more days per week.

I wouldn't think that Kirilloff's injury woes are over. If he can get through the season with a minimum of discomfort, then he might be able to consider the injury as in the past. I do wonder if the strength in the wrist is such that he can't drive the ball as he did previously. So far any discomfort he has experienced is not keeping him out of the lineup and that is huge progress. As pointed out above, AK's hitting for the month of June is subpar. Walks are down, strikeouts are up and hits have been scarce with extra base hits pretty rare. I think the lack of hard-hit balls and extra base hits might be what Alex is at this stage in his delayed major league career. He has just not done much to balls on the inside of the plate that many lefty hitters punish, but it might be an adjustment he can make in the second half of this season. I don't think Kirilloff has been underused so far since he was recalled. He has been spotted against lefties and frankly hasn't looked much better than any of the other suspect left handed hitters. I still expect him to flourish both in general and against southpaw pitching as the season continues as long as his wrist cooperates. AK will turn 26 in the off season and his development has clearly been delayed by injury. If he is past the wrist miseries, I still believe he will be a far above average hitter, if not elite. His approach is superior to almost the entire team. As with the entire team, it is exhausting to be patient, but I think Alex Kirilloff will be worth the wait.

Great analysis Nick. The meager contributions of Correa and Buxton are a huge factor in the team’s poor record. The performance of the pitching staff has been outstanding. Willi Castro has helped the team and is a big surprise. I suggest that at least one on-field personnel move and one in the coaching staff needs to be made. I can’t fault Rocco for failing to have a regular lineup. It is a function of how the team is built and who has contributed thus far.

I couldn’t agree more Ted. The deeper one looks into López’ stats, the more the record and ERA look like outliers. The key is health. If López stays healthy, the Arraez trade will look better and better.

Unfortunately, Byron Buxton has not been able to regain his health really at least the ill-fated slide in Boston in April 2022. We are move than fourteen month since that injury. As a veteran of three joint replacements, including both knees, since November of 2022, I suspect that Byron has degenerative arthritis in his knee, if not both his knee and hip. My joint replacements were the result of arthritis and it isn't unprecedented for people of Buxton's age to be afflicted with arthritis. The name that comes to mind is Sandy Koufax and he retired from baseball after his age 30 season. I apologize in advance for making assumptions without evidence and perhaps jumping to conclusions, but if the knee wasn't really heped by the off-season surgery, it just sounds too familiar (and sad) to me.

ESPN has Stewart listed on the 15 day IL. Ugh. Edit to add: Ortega appears to have been recalled to replace Stewart.

Add in three pitchers currently on the major league active roster--Balazovic (drafted 2016), Headrick and Winder. Sands is yet another drafted and developed by the Twins (currently on IL). I think Headrick still has a chance to become a rotation piece, while the others look like bullpen guys, but if they are contributing, then fewer spaces need to be filled by free agents and waiver claims.

I'm seeing adjustments made with different personnel. Guys like Castro and Taylor can steal bases and perhaps we add Julien and Lewis to that list. Since the season started, Lewis and Kirilloff have become regulars (at least against RH pitching) and Castro is getting plenty of run filling in. Julien is starting against right handed pitching, while Polanco is injured, as well. The team is strikeout heavy and I dread seeing what Strider will do with this lineup. You can't really buy and sell at the trade deadline. Call me Pollyanna, but I think this team can and will be much better in the second half, with the proviso that the current starting pitching stays healthy. I continue to believe that Carlos Correa will "find it" enough to justify his batting order status. I'm less certain that Buxton will do any more than he has offered in the first half of the season. One way or another, they need better production from first base and the corner outfield spots.

If the Twins had a .300 hitter wth good contact skills and decent power playing a corner opposite three-true-outcomes Gallo, then it would have made sense to take a chance on Gallo. Instead they have a guy with a limited upside who is prone to slumps and has a history of not hitting left handed pitching as the compliment to Gallo. Gallo is going to have moments if he is allowed to keep getting playing time, but he's also going to hit around .200 with very little offensive value besides his power. In the end there is too little production from the corner outfield. If the Twins want to be more than a borderline contender, they need more than Gallo fairly frequent walks and homers.

I checked the Twins’ website and there is an inconsistency. Jorge López I’d not listed at all, while Jorge Alcalá is still listed as being on the 15-day IL. Does this relate to López’ status?

If Rocco is telling the truth, Buxton cannot play in the field. He avoided the question for 40% of the schedule. We haven’t been told the medical details, but his ability to swing a bat and run the bases indicate that he has only a small distance that he can run before being impaired (my analysis).

De León to the 15-day IL. Winder recalled.

Tough loss. Sad to see what happened to De León. Also Buxton. Can we put Julien on the IL for an ailing glove?

Ortega draws the short straw and is optioned to St. Paul. Maeda activated.

Somebody will be sent down to make room for Maeda. My guess is that it is Headrick, but it could be Balazovic, Headrick or Ortega. Edit to add that I think it is likely that the Twins will do another bullpen game before we see Maeda throw twice on the road trip.

Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two Twins players that have a lot in common. Both guys were high draft choices who reached top prospect status. Both guys have missed most of the last two seasons with injuries and started this season on the Injured List due to serious injuries suffered last year. Both returned to the team this year and prompted speculation that their arrival might propel the Twins this year. While there is a lot to like, I think neither of these guys is playing like an instant star. I also think that if the Twins aspire to be more than a near-.500 team, it will be because of one or both of these young players. Here's my view of their abbreviated seasons so far this year: Kirilloff had a second surgery on his troublesome right wrist and it was thought that he might be ready to to be on the roster on Opening Day. That didn't happen. Alex didn't face live pitching until late in spring training and he was placed on the Injured List to start the season. Kirilloff used all of his 20-day rehab and hit well at each level with no signs of wrist discomfort or impairment. Still, with the club in first place and Joey Gallo hammering a lot of homers and playing a good first base, Kirilloff was briefly optioned to St. Paul in early May. Injuries quickly opened a spot and Alex was back! In his first week back, he looked like a future batting champion, taking walks, swinging at strikes and frequently hitting the ball hard. He's tailed off since then and hasn't hit for much power. AK has mostly played first base, but has also logged quite a few innings in the outfield corners. Kirilloff has been shielded from left handed pitching, not starting several games against lefties and he's frequently been replaced by a pinch hitter. Significantly, Kirilloff hasn't missed a game due to injury. Lewis suffered his second consecutive torn ACL in June last year and was placed on the 60-day IL when the season started. He also didn't face live pitching during the spring. Royce began his 20-day rehab within a day or two of the earliest date possible and was activated from the Injured List on the first day he was eligible. Lewis made an immediate impact with a homer in his first game and a key late inning hits as the Twins played better for a spell. Royce is currently sporting a batting average over .300 with three homers and a dozen RBI. Good numbers, for sure. He hasn't been turned loose on the base paths yet and he's only walked a couple of times while being prone to the strikeout. Except for one inning in a blowout game, Lewis has exclusively played third base. He's made a number of athletic highlight reel plays, but also made some errors.game due to injury. I think the time for both Lewis and Kirilloff is soon, but not now. Lewis has had many of his best at-bats with the most on the line. Kirilloff is much more consistent in his at-bats, but so far hasn't done that much damage. Lewis is prone to more non-competitive plate appearances, but has risen to the occasion quite a few times already. Baldelli has batted Kirilloff in the top half of the order against right handers and hit Lewis lower (5th -7th). I would expect that Lewis could move to the top of the order when he becomes more selective. Lewis has been given off days since returning to the Twins, probably a wise move considering Royce's injury history. Expecting Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to lead the Twins to the promised land of a division championship and playoff success is probably asking too much this year. Having them be contributors beside Buxton, Correa and Polanco is a more reasonable expectation. Maybe as soon as next year they might be headliners. I hope and expect that their games will round off--that AK will hit with more power and that Lewis will show a more complete overall game. It's important that they are healthy and their futures still look bright.

In order to have a complete game in this era, with this manager and pitching coach, a lot of boxes have to be checked. 1) No one in the bullpen needs to work. 2) Is the team safely ahead? 3) Is the pitch count under control? 4) Are the opponents starting to hit the starter? All the boxes were checked and Ryan was able to get both a complete game and shutout. Congratulations Joe!