ThejacKmp

A brief aside: Mauer is a totally different. We were all very excited when the Twins kept Mauer. Just because a move doesn't work out doesn't mean that it wasn't a good move. Moving into a new stadium, the Twins had to keep Mauer. He's a hometown boy and the best Twin in most of our lifetimes. It's not crazy to say that Target Field was built so the Twins would be able to keep guys like Mauer (and eventually Sano, Buxton, Berrios). It's sad we're even talking about him in the same breath as a Nolasco or a Fien. Not the same thing. ----- Overall I think you're confusing the Twins not getting rid of someone and an inability to get rid of someone. Just because the Twins don't choose to get rid of someone now doesn't mean that they couldn't. Unlike most people on TD, the Twins haven't given up on this season and don't think that some of these guys won't be part of the Twins next season. You can't just sell off everyone in the first week of May - you have to give the team a chance to rebound and sell off parts starting in late June. If nothing else than so young players have faith in the team. The Twins aren't just going to dump Santana on someone right now - they believe he'll be a good starting pitcher for them and (right or wrong) they're not going to let a year and a month change that concept. You're not wrong in saying guys like Nolasco have little to no value but when you can't see Santana's value, you're blinded by your pessimism. Fien and Milone are not the same as Santana or Nolasco either. Both of those guys were signed on cheap contracts to provide depth and were easily moved on from. The Twins didn't not sign someone else because of Fien and Milone - those guys were a bridge to younger players. Not the same as a Nolasco contract. Nolasco was a bad contract in the vein of Kevin Correia (though KC's contract worked out so who can judge?) Santana was a decent contact where the Twins paid market value for a veteran starter. Nothing wrong with Hughes, Plouffe, Perkins, Dozier, Fien, Milone, Mauer, Park or Jepsen deals. Some didn't work out but that's the way life works. Of these deals, only the Nolasco deal is a really bad deal. ----- A final aside: I'm very frustrated with Monday morning quarterbacks who are quick to criticize moves with the benefit of hindsight.

PEDs don't really matter. It hasn't stopped Melky Cabrera from getting interest. Teams have little to lose - if the guy gets suspended they don't have to pay him. It's a no-lose situation. The point about the FA market is fine for the offseason but right now, there aren't a ton of options. If you're the White Sox looking for a replacement for John Danks or the Angels for Garret Richards, you don't have good internal options and there aren't a ton of pitchers available. The Twins would give you Nolasco for free and Santana for very little. Nolasco is crap and we agree no one will want him but Santana is a pretty decent starter. You might not resign the length of his deal today (though you might, he was lights out end of last year) but you will see it as a slight overpay to fix an in-season problem. It's the basic tenet behind why the Twins kept Plouffe and why the Phillies waited to trade Hamels til midseason last year - teams will pay more in-season than off-season because they have fewer options and more pressure to fill a hole and compete. You're crazy if you think Dozier doesn't have value. Decent contract, young guy with power at a non-power position. I see nothing about him having an injury, I don't know where that is coming from. His value isn't based on a hot streak, he's just a guy it makes sense to wait to see if he can build value. He would get you a nice piece right now but he might get you something much nicer down the road. With the others, I think we're confusing "has good trade value" with "someone would pick this guy up on waivers and take on the contract." If put on waivers Park, Plouffe, Dozier, Perkins, Jepsen and likely Santana would be grabbed by someone. As far as having actual trade value, I think the first four definitely have it and the last two likely get you a pretty bad prospect. Remember that Chris Hermann, Sam Fuld and Drew Butera all fetched back something pretty decent. I know they were really cheap but they got actual prospects. You can give away salary easily.

This is fun but I think you’re too pessimistic on this. I agree that few of these guys have a ton of value but I think many of these contracts would be assumed by another team (and that’s really what we’re talking about here – is this contract so bad that if a guy was waived, no one would claim him and the Twins would eat the salary?) With Milone and Fien we will get to see this today since they are going through waivers right now –the very definition of “would someone take on this contract.” (For the record I think Milone will maybe be taken and Fien will certainly not be). As for the rest, teams won’t give up tons/any of value but I think that many more of the contracts would be taken and some you’d get something for them. Let’s rank them from most to least tradable (I did the full contract because that matters – I didn’t include buyouts because it’s complicated and I don’t think they materially affect any of these): ----------------- Park 4 years/$12 million: The Twins could clearly get a lot for Park since right handed power is solid, he’s on a fantastic contract and he’s played a decent 1B so isn’t just a DH. They won’t do it but maybe they should? VERDICT: A nice shiny trade chip. Dozier 3 years/$18 million: Dozier would certainly be tradable, you’re underselling him based on some slumping. He hasn't played very well in the first month but he's four months removed from the all-star game and is a 2B who plays decent D and has pop on a pretty team-friendly contract. You would get something interesting for him for sure (not elite prospects but someone you could realistically project playing in the majors some day). VERDICT: You can certainly get something for him but you’d be selling low. Wait til the deadline – a streaking Dozier could be one of the more interesting guys on the market. Perkins 2 years/$12.8 million: This may be off because I’m treating it as if he comes back healthy. This is tough because he's injured and no one trades for an injured pitcher. But before the season he would certainly be tradable and if he came back and had two good outings he would be as well. He's another guy with a team-friendly contract. He may not close for other teams but a healthy Perkins is an asset many teams would take. Hopefully he can be healthy for the deadline because I’d love to see the Twins get something for him and set the path for younger guys. VERDICT: Incomplete. As is now, some team would take the contract because if he comes back, he can be a back-end bullpen piece. With a short demonstration of health, almost every team would grab him on waivers. If he has a good month, he’s a very nice trade piece. Plouffe 1 year/$7.2 million + arb: Plouffe's contract would also certainly be taken on by some other team. He's a league average player at a position where many teams have issues. Plus his contract this year is decent and you can let him be a free agent next year if you don’t want him so he carries no long-term risk. The Twins haven't moved him yet because they're hoping his value will go up, not because he has no value. I’d almost move him ahead of Perkins – only reason not to is that relievers can be fit into almost any team while a team would have to have a need at 3B/1B to want Plouffe. VERDICT: You can get something for him but it might not be much. Jepsen 1 year/$5.3 million: He hasn’t been amazing of course but he’s a reliever with a history of success and someone would easily take on this contract. Like Plouffe, you can walk away end of the season so there’s no long term commitment for a guy who has been a legitimate bullpen weapon. His contract would be taken off the Twins hands. VERDICT: Contract would be picked up, you might get a long-shot prospect? Probably not. Santana 3 years/$40.5 million: Santana is a tougher call just because of how much time he has left on the deal. He’s a veteran starter signed at a reasonable rate for a 3rd/4th starter for only two more years after this one – you’d think some wealthy team with pitching needs (the Angels? The White Sox?) would be willing to take him off the Twins hands. I don’t think you’d get much/anything for him but someone would take the contract. VERDICT: Contract would be picked off waivers and you might be able to trade him for something small but no one is giving you anything amazing for him. Suzuki 1 year/$6 million: Suzuki is an interesting case. The salary isn't prohibitively large but there isn't a team that wants him as their #1 (including the Twins, who just had no other better options and are hamstrung by JRM's struggles) and most teams either have a veteran #2 or have a young developing #2. That said, I imagine a team that had a starting catcher get injured would gladly take on Suzuki as their new backup (he’s better than the Juan Centeno/Chris Hermann types). Third catcher is a pretty low bar to clear and while the salary isn't cheap, Suzuki is a vet a team would feel comfortable with in a pinch and there’s no long term commitment. But agreed that it would be hard to get anything for him and you'd need someone to have a need. VERDICT: Need the right injury situation but you could get at least three bags of balls for him. Nolasco 2 years/$24 million: This is where I think we move over to pretty untradeable guys. It’s strange to put Ricky ahead of Hughes but he’s only got one more year after this on the deadline. I think it would be very tough to get someone to take this contract but if he had another month of relative success, some pitching-needy team might be willing to take him on as a back of the rotation starter they only have one more year to commit to. That’s pretty tough though, $12 million next year is killer. VERDICT: Not very likely and there’s no way you’re getting anything for him. Hughes 4 years/$48.8 mill: Hard to see someone taking Hughes. Four years is a long time and he’s already 30 and has over a year of struggling and diminishing velocity. He could be moved to the pen but he’d have to be elite to justify spending that money and there’s no indication he would be. Pretty untradeable. VERDICT: Not a chance, best path might be demonstrating some value as a reliever in the future. Mauer 3 years/$69 million: Crazy that perhaps the best player on this list is the least tradable guy but as a 1B with little power, he’d be a tough sell. If he had one year left, there’s a decent chance some super rich team would value his OBP and bring him aboard to cover an injury but with three years left, this contract is the Twins. Which I’m glad about. #joemauerforlife VERDICT: Nope. Thoughts on these? Not a ringing endorsement of the Twins free agent moves but you could just shed the salary easier on these than we might think.

Yeah, they just need someone who will take that contract. Where are the Dodgers when you need them?

These are all super minor moves which don’t really qualify as prioritizing winning now over development: 1) Alex Meyer was in the pen for like four days. He is now in the starting rotation. 2) Trevor May to the pen happened last year during a pennant race. This year there was too much competition for the rotation (largely because Ricky Nolasco was/is basically untradeable) but May to the pen is by no means a long-term set in stone plan. I expect he’ll be back competing in the rotation when things are much more open next spring. 3) Trading a middling back-of-the-rotation prospect for a reliever you can control for several years is hardly selling out the future. 4) Suzuki was the best of a bunch of bad choices. If they weren’t going to trade the farm for Lucroy or pay Russel Martin oodles of money, there wasn’t much of an upgrade over Suzuki over the past few years. Suzuki is on a reasonable deal that gives Garver/Turner time to develop. And the Twins traded Hicks for another catching prospect – a move for the future, not the present. Suzuki is blocking no one – JRM is blocking himself by playing pretty terribly. He’ll get more playing time as the season goes on (as you indicate with potential of course!). 5) Let’s not count Plouffe either. It made sense to see how the young guys would fare in the early going of the year and there was no market for Plouffe. If Plouffe isn’t a key part of a resurgence that puts us in contention, there’s every reason to think the Twins will move him at the deadline when the market is hopefully better. I think it would be impossible to look at the Twins moves of the past 18 months and not see a commitment to the future. They signed some free agents (Suzuki, Santana) to fill in areas where they weren’t strong but they’ve by and large given their prospects and young guys a chance to grow without the focus on win now. I think it’s the right call.

They would have to trade Santana if that's what they wanted. They can't just not play him or move him to the pen. He's earned that much by performance and service time. The worst precedent would be to screw over veteran guys on your team because your fans gave up in early May and wanted to play young guys.

Meh, disagree. I think it was the worst thing that could have happened for maintaining the optimism of TD readers and posters but I don't think it altered the front office's plans at all. They've continued to prioritize a long-term view and have avoided the win-now moves that teams like the Astros made. I don't think that May had any real effect on the Twins plans - the same guys would have been on contract and the same guys would have the roles they have now. May 2015 got Twins fans excited and while this year may dampen that some, the stream of young players coming up to the majors should keep that momentum up. And young guys got to experience the thrill of a pennant race at the MLB level. May 2015 was great.

Yeah but teams don't DFA with two years left on a deal. They could trade him but they certainly will not and should not just not play him to give younger players a chance. It's also not about not promoting young guys. Santana is a good pitcher who has had success with the Twins. And as perhaps the most elite free agent signing the Twins have ever made, it behooves them to treat him with respect. He wants to compete and potentially wants to sign another contract. If the Twins sit healthy effective free agent pitchers, they're never going to get another one. It's just about good business. You don't piss off your employees for no reason - if you do, it makes it harder to hire good employees in the future.

Santana is going to get his job back and even the most cynical view of this year supports that – you’ll have even worse luck trying to get impact free agents if they know you might just not play them no matter their results. I see it as two spots. Milone is gone and isn’t coming back barring a lot of injuries and Ricky Nolasco is not long for this world, success or no success. In some ways, this is the best we could have hoped for with Ricky. He’s pitched well and the Twins aren’t doing well, so there’s no temptation to try to ride him. It may take another month to move him but I would be shocked if he was here by the time we get close to the deadline. That leaves two spots for Meyer/Berrios/Duffey. That’s not the worst way to handle things, Meyer could use more time in the minors to build confidence with success.

I don't hope TR makes any big moves. He shouldn't sell out any of the young guys to put a bandaid on this season. Last season got expectations high for this year but this was always going to be a growing process. The Twins should be keeping and playing prospects. Getting Lucroy now isn't going to save this season and JRM is young and we're talking a small sample here. Let's give it some time.

Suzuki isn't going to vest even if he is the clear #1 catcher (131 games last year = 479 plate appearances; hard to see him catching that much this year. You can't put Mauer back at catcher for human and baseball reasons. The human one trumps all which is that doctors recommend he not be back there as it could easily harm his long term health. And even if you get heartless, he hasn't played in two plus years and would be super rusty. Plus why mess with something that is working? Mauer is hitting like old Joe and no one should mess with that. Not a huge "trade for Lucroy" fan. He had a very good stretch from 2012 to 2014 but tailed off last year. He's 30 years old and bound to decline in the near future - you're buying high if you get him now. I'd still like him as a player in a vacuum but he's going to cost a ton (he's going to be one of the best two or three position players available at the deadline). Definitely not worth it. Patience with JRM. As Seth said, he's hit at every stage of his career. He's in a slump now but it's worth remembering that it's only 35 at bats and that it isn't like he's striking out a ton. In a few months, he'll likely be hitting much better (and getting much more consisted PT). As for behind the plate, it's not like Suzuki has been amazing. With the exception of JRM's terrible play Washington, they've been the same catcher.

Really little to no chance of this happened. Suzuki needs 485 plate appearances this year to vest that option. He played 131 games last year and still only got 479 plate appearances. It's hard to see the Twins playing Fryer/Hermann more than JRM, even if he is not playing well. And Suzuki is bound to have some nagging injury that keeps him out for a week at some point. If the Twins let him over 485 it will be because he has an amazing year and they can't sit him and/or want him back again. That seems unlikely to happen but would be a nice problem to have.

Thoughts now that Meyer is replacing Milone, who is not injured? Clearly the Twins have a quick trigger and perhaps the reason Meyer wasn't pitching much was they suspected he might be starting soon. I think this is my main take away from the roster confusion of the last week - we need to have faith that the front office generally knows how to do things. Yeah it made no sense on Tuesday afternoon but heart surgery looks like murder halfway through. They preserved flexibility with some health stuff and got the right guys into the right spots pitching-wise. It's easy to be pessimistic and call people incompetent but there's method to the madness. In the course of a week the Twins put 40% of their rotation on the DL while also replacing another starter. That's not going to be super clean and I think it came out pretty well, all things considered. Very excited to see Berrios, Duffy and Meyer in the rotation for at least the next two weeks. At least one of them is likely to stick in the rotation long term and it seems possible there could be two (like if Nolasco is traded or turns back into a pumpkin).

I don't think they were wrong to give Milone $5 million. He hasn't been sharp but $5 million is a modest investment in a back of the rotation starter (see Pelfrey, Mike). Teams can always use pitching depth and Milone is a very nice guy to have in that role. If the Twins placed him on waivers, some team would grab him and say, "Thank you very much for your pitching depth." Where they'd be wrong is to not allow upside to trump Milone. He's at his best a #4 starter and more likely a decent #5 starter. They have young guys who have way more upside. And for what it's worth, I think he's a bad start away from moving into the pen (likely for Meyer). To me, that's the reason Meyer isn't pitching up here - they're going to use him as a long reliever for a few days and give Milone one more start before turning it over. I for one am very impressed with how quickly TR and Molitor have turned to young starters. Yeah some injuries were involved and yeah we might have wanted it to happen a few days earlier but they've not shied away from bringing up young guys. That's refreshing. Hopefully Berrios can pull a Duffey and rebound from a tough first start.

I was upset that Santana didn't lay out for the double that caused the first two runs. Rosario would have laid out for it. Buxton would have caught it while doing a pushup. Santana just doesn't have the time in the OF to time those right. That ball was tough but a better play should have been made.

All of those guys didn't blow out an arm either.

Agreed. Especially since it's not like the Twins are a team that should go out and sign big free agent arms. If they want to deal Polanco/Rosario types, I'm fine with that. But don't touch any of the high-upside starters (Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart etc.)

It's not until like July. The whole thing may work itself out by then anyway.

And Plouffe has played 30 games in the OF before, which is more than Sano. I guess the counterargument is that if you're going to deal Plouffe, he has max value playing 3B well rather than OF poorly. But I think teams would know he can play 3B.

I would have liked to have seen him get Meyer's cup of coffee so that Meyer could keep working as a starter and build some confidence.

I think this is our disconnect. I see the 2 man bench as the equivalent of the 3rd catcher syndrome - it could hurt you but is so unlikely that it's not really worth making doomsday plans for.

Gibson (1) Hughes (2) Santana (not capable of making a start?, DL decision tomorrow) Milone (3?, Berrios coming up would mean the Twins have soured on him, as they should) Duffey (4?) Nolasco (5) Berrios (not up yet, if up replacing Milone) Meyer (bullpen) These are my predictions: (1) Berrios onto the 40 man, up to the majors, Milone to the pen, O'Rourke to the minors. (2) Santana either to DL tomorrow with Duffey in the rotation or Santana scheduled to start and Duffey heads back to the minors (3) Duffey/Santana's space is taken by Mastrioni, who serves as a late inning defensive sub and pinch runner for Sano/Arcia. This would leave the Twins with a rotation of: Gibson, Hughes, Duffey/Santana, Berrios, Nolasco. Their pen becomes: May, Jepsen, Abad, Tonkin, Pressley, Milone, Meyer and Fien. This whole thing becomes about (1) replacing Milone with Berrios without losing Milone (2) Giving Santana a day to see if the DL is in his future and (3) Giving the pen Meyer so they have some depth they can use. If having a two man bench for a few days gives the Twins the clarity to get Berrios and potentially Duffey in the rotation, I am all for it. And Meyers in the pen is just a nice little bonus because if he performs well, maybe if/when the Twins Perkins back, they get rid of Fien.

If it is 7 it is a problem and TR needs to be checked for dementia. But I'll bet you almost anything that come Friday AM the Twins will have a normal bench. Meyer was brought up to help the pen out and I think that's where they want him to stay. And again, I think a lot of this timing is tied to Berrios coming up and the Santana DL decision. They needed time for that and a two man bench for a game or so isn't the worst.

May is not stretched out to start so that's down to 7. Meyer was brought up to help in the pen and is not known for going long in games. If you make him a starter you haven't helped your pen (and likely hurt them since he's unlikely to go longer than 5 in a start). That's 6 starters. Santana can't start but isn't quite at the DL yet (I imagine we'll know one way or the other by tomorrow). That's 5. Depending on what happens with Berrios/Milone you may end up with a 6th if they keep Milone when they bring up Berrios. They could skip someone but modern teams like to take advantage of rest days to give everyone an extra day's rest. We could disagree with that but also can see that it's not unreasonable to want to stick to a 5 man rotation even with a day off. It's not a matter of Duffey CAN'T be sent down but of TR seeing a scuffling pen and unstable pitching rotation and saying, "Hey, a two man bench is no big deal for a few days while we figure out the staff." I promise you it won't last longer than tomorrow and that it will almost certainly have no negative impact on the Twins winning or losing games.

Yeah, except that if they send down Duffey now they can't bring him back up for Santana's next start (gotta wait ten days). So they actually can't send him down (especially if the rumors are right and they're planning on bringing Berrios up to replace Milone). They need to see what Santana is feeling like before making that decision. I think having Duffey start rather than Alex Meyers is more valuable than not having as many cheerleaders on the bench for one or two games. It's not ideal, that's why teams don't do it often. But for two days its hardly the calamity the TD boards make it seem. It didn't cost the Twins at all yesterday and it won't again today. This is an utterly defensible set of moves forced on TR by some unusual things happening in the last few days. Give him 48 hours to untangle it. The goal is not to tax your pen insanely hard early in the year, it tends to have negative effects on the season and their careers. The Twins have been able to do that by carrying more pitchers.