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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    I'm fine with Gibson starting in the Twins' rotation, if he looks good in spring. The idea of needing him in September is just laughable. The middle infield situation is boring. The Twins are just punting both spots for the time being, and will unquestionably be the worst team in baseball there.
  2. drivlikejehu
    The Pirates have been rebuilding for what, 20+ years? The Twins have dug a seriously deep hole that will not be easy to climb out of. There is zero evidence they have a "plan," other maybe than praying none of their few pitching prospects get hurt. Indeed, their actions tend to indicate the exact opposite of a plan. Trading away a young outfielder, but holding onto Willingham? Writing off 2013 but overpaying Correia? The kool-aid drinkers will always be there, but the reality just isn't good.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Chargois isn't a candidate to start. It's odd to use 2-8 ratings instead of 20-80, since the half-steps are important (e.g., 65 rather than 6 or 7). Overall they don't look like a ton of thought went into them.
  4. drivlikejehu
    I haven't seen any personal attacks against Correia. He just isn't good enough to be a starting pitcher in the American League. As an inexpensive long reliever, virtually no one would complain. The problem has nothing to do with Correia himself and everything to do with Twins' management. There is no way to "move on" from the fact that the front office can't properly evaluate players and apparently doesn't even bother using available budget space. Correia's signing is basically inarguable evidence that there's a serious problem, and trying to act like it's some kind of hate-fest against Correia is just dodging the actual substance behind the criticisms.
  5. drivlikejehu
    It really is a location problem; a well-sited stadium could draw OK in that area. Baseball doesn't want to pull out of a market that size. Oakland seems to be a bigger mess.
  6. drivlikejehu
    It's a scary read. Maybe the worst part is when he talks about ancient scouting reports from Correia's time in SF and SD (when he still mostly sucked, though in a somewhat different way). I just hope TR stops with the excuses when his Correia experiment fails gruesomely.
  7. drivlikejehu
    An obvious comp to me would be Torii Hunter... similar size (when Hunter was younger), combination of speed and power. Buxton is faster and has the upside to be a better hitter too, but conservatism is warranted with prospects, especially unpolished ones.
  8. drivlikejehu
    No, this is really that bad. It's not an overreaction to say so. The killer is 2014; Correia will have been blasted out of the rotation by then, but it's $5 million down the drain for a season that is hopefully when things can finally head in a positive direction.
  9. drivlikejehu
    I wonder how to rank this compared to the Blackburn and Joe Mays contracts. Definitely one of TR's worst moves, maybe even the worst when you take context into account.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Well I was trying to compensate for the fact that TB got guys pretty close to the Majors, whereas Sano isn't. The point is just that it was an insane amount to give up, and the guys they got back aren't free either. Before the trade, the Royals had about $54.5 million committed, not counting the pre-arb guys. If they are really so set on winning, why not just sign Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson? The combined cost would be maybe $10-15 million more than Shields/Davis, but they also could upgrade RF by replacing Francoeur (one of the worst players in MLB last year) with Myers, and have Odorizzi for pitching depth in AAA. They could use some non-elite prospects to get a third starter and have the makings of a real rotation, not Shields and then a bunch of garbage.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Payroll needs fluctuate over time. There is no real point in throwing away a bunch of money on a rebuilding team. But, there is a lot of value in bolstering a contender. However, the Pohlads will never say anything about investing more down the road, because they have zero intention of doing so. It's not even about what the Pohlads owe to the taxpayers, who handed them hundreds of millions of dollars in exchange for nothing, even though their family tried very hard to make the team disappear off the face of the Earth. I know for sure they couldn't care less about that. But it's actually bad business not to invest in a contending team, because a relatively small investment can pay huge dividends if the team makes the playoffs (particularly if it advances).
  12. drivlikejehu
    The Royals won 72 games last year. Yes, Shields is a #1 starter. But the Royals don't have a #2 or #3 starter... all their other guys are back of rotation types. Their position players were 10th in the AL in WAR last year (thanks to defense- they were terrible offensively). Now, if they somehow add multiple quality players, through free agency or more trades, that would be different (though still unwise). But it's hilarious to see Twins fans who like this for KC when, if the Twins made the same deal by sending Arcia, Gibson, Hendriks, and Harrison to the Rays, Twins fans would be having an epic meltdown.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I'd prefer to see Hicks start in AAA. The Twins are very conservative with promotions anyway, so I don't think they would start him in the Majors unless he really was ready, but... the service time issue is definitely significant, and a little extra caution wouldn't hurt either. Names like Travis Snider and Cameron Maybin come to mind, who first got called up at a young age and have been very inconsistent. Truly elite talents like Trout and Harper are a different story, but Hicks isn't that kind of player.
  14. drivlikejehu
    The Royals just destroyed themselves. An unbelievably bad trade, one of the worst in recent memory. The Royals have one good outfielder, and they trade one of, if not the #1 OF prospect in baseball? Who is almost MLB ready? Myers by himself would be too much for Shields... to also throw in a quality pitching prospect and a couple lesser prospects is comical. He's clueless in general, but Jim Bowden did point out that Moore's contract ends in 2014, so this move could potentially let Moore keep his job. That's the only real justification for the trade I can imagine. But even so, the Royals aren't very good. Now they have one good starter instead of zero. They still have no CF, RF, or 2B, and aren't quite sure what to expect from 3B, 1B, and C. Adding Shields does make them a solid favorite for 3rd place in the horrific AL Central, but that's it.
  15. drivlikejehu
    The additions of Meyer and May are certainly welcome, but overall pitching depth is still pretty bad. The Twins also aren't real strong when it comes to infielders or catchers. I'd guess #5-7 range.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Morneau just isn't that valuable, because of his salary, injury problems recently, and mediocre 2012 season. He is a good fit for Baltimore if the Twins eat a lot of salary, but who really thinks the Twins would do that? Even then, the return certainly wouldn't be Tillman or someone like that. Maybe Arrieta, but even then the Twins might need to kick in a C+ prospect.
  17. drivlikejehu
    I don't think Texas has much need for Revere or Morneau at this point. With Borbon and Martin, they already have speedy centerfielders with hitting issues. Morneau has enough question marks and salary that going with Moreland, and maybe Olt during the year sometime, makes more sense. Having said that, Texas might make other moves that change the situation.
  18. drivlikejehu
    New Britain is a pitchers' park too, but it wouldn't surprise me if they had him start in Ft. Myers with a quick promotion in mind.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Pitching has always been expensive. Revenues have risen, and payrolls along with it, but even back in the day there was Mike Hampton and so forth. McCarthy doesn't have a great track record for his career like Haren. I just don't think teams will go totally crazy over a limited-upside question mark, even in this market. I wouldn't offer more than 2/16.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I think Blanton is a bit better than his ERA with the Phillies would indicate. I definitely like him much, much more than Lannan. What good he really does the Twins is another question, other than the fact they have to throw someone out there.
  21. drivlikejehu
    No. His arm is finished.
  22. drivlikejehu
    That's not how you discount cash flows. For one thing, 3% per year is way too low (the discount isn't really about inflation per se). I assume the payout increases over time. But for a simple example, let's say the Dodgers get $250 million per year, every year for 25 years. The present value would be around $4.35 billion. Using industry-standard discount rates, and assuming the payments are at least a bit graduated, the present value of the deal is $3 billion or so, maybe as little as $2.5 billion if there is some back-loading. There is a lot more to the economics of the deal itself, but the general trend is that cable companies, premium channels, and other media entities are worried about their ability to hold onto a strong subscriber base. Sports rights are very valuable because they are exclusive, perpetual, largely unaffected by pirating, and require no real promotion on the part of the media entity. The math is way more complicated than dividing dollar amounts by households.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The total numbers are misleading because of the contract length; due to the time value of money, the actual present value is far below the stated dollar figure.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, no one watches baseball, that's why it has over $6 billion in revenue per year.
  25. drivlikejehu
    The Twins are devoid of pitching throughout the organization. One pitcher just isn't going to make enough of a difference in the long run. Oakland returned to contention after years of stockpiling good young arms. Now, it may well be that this is the best return the Twins would ever get for Span, though it certainly seems light. But even if it is the best possible deal, it just highlights the dire straits the organization is in. They don't have the assets to trade their way out of it, nor the willingness to acquire quality free agent starters.
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