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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. This type of thinking is only going to drive you crazy. The Pirates beat the Dodgers last night... again! The Pirates win the season series between the two clubs 5-2. Good teams average 6 wins every 10 games. Average Teams average 5 wins every 10 games Bad Teams average 4 wins every 10 games. The bad teams are beating somebody and it isn't just the other bad teams that they collect their W's against. In baseball... the sun never shines bright enough for hay making.
  2. There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. While it's clearly an overstatement, it is really hard to deny the accuracy of the implication. Injury rates with pitchers are rising to the point of injuries being actually expected, this has led to a change in usage to try and lessen the attenuation, which in turn lessens the value of those who stay somewhat healthy because the workload is managed. The combination of injuries, workload management and short windows of effectiveness means questionable success rates in comparison to hitters. Front offices need sure things with the early rounds, they can't afford to miss. Early round misses happen a lot and each time it happens it will set a franchise back. Missing also can't be good for job security for the advisors or for the actual front office. It's hard to blame anyone for retreating to the safety (safer) net of hitters who succeed at higher rates, there is simply too much at stake. I look at it a little differently... when you look at these numbers they say dial it down on drafting pitching but sometimes when the numbers look like they say dial it down... they are really saying dial it up. The numbers are not saying you should avoid drafting pitching because it's hard, they only look like they do... the numbers are actually saying that drafting pitching is hard so you have to spend more energy on it to restore the balance. Yes... injuries have diminished the value of individual pitchers. Yes... Workload management (rest and pitch counts) has diminished the value of individual pitchers. Yes... the short shelf life, quick decline of effectiveness has diminished the value of individual pitchers. All this is true but the one thing that has not diminished, is the need for pitching. Every team still desperately needs it. You have to dial it up against the odds to increase the odds and restore the balance. Pitching is a numbers game. Draft a lot of it, acquire a lot of it and promote it quickly while there are still bullets in the gun.
  3. Gordon has been getting opportunity this year and he is poised for more opportunity in the immediate future. Gordon can help his major league career right here... right now. I'll be pulling for him. Although... I'm not sure what you mean exactly by "Probably the same ones calling for Lewis to be called up to play any position".
  4. He went after the baseball hard and made the catch. Just like I hope all players go hard after the ball and make the catch. Good Job Royce... Thank You. Hope you heal up soon.
  5. Devin Smeltzer: "My wife told me this morning, I need to throw more changeups down and away, and I agreed. And that's what we did." Dear, Falvey, Lavine and Baldelli As long as they are hanging zeros. Please keep Devin and his wife in the rotation.
  6. It's ok to pray at the alter of OPS. But while doing this let's not diminish the simple value of simply not making an out. Every extra guy that steps to the plate in the inning increases the odds of runs scored. Guys who don't make outs... gives everyone else's OPS a bigger bang for that buck. Arraez is big value for us.
  7. 7 innings of 2 hit - shut out ball tonight. ERA down to 1.04 Smeltzer wants to stay. Someone should prepare a snack tray and make him feel at home.
  8. I don't think this was directed at me but I also don't know where I fall on the spectrum. I was one of those who doubted Kepler before the season. (Doubted isn't a perfect word to describe my thoughts). I simply felt that he had not earned every day playing time based on a very poor performance last year and I felt it would be incredibly risky to declare him an every day player going into 2022 without a safety net. I felt at minimum he needed to compete against others or share playing time with others to establish the better performer. I was never an advocate for removing him from the roster because of his potential to fix whatever happened last year but I didn't believe he should be a roadblock to the opportunity of a Larnach, a Celestino, A Garlick, or a whoever. I also didn't think his presence or contract should stop the team from bringing in someone else. I was never concerned with Kepler being a part of our 4 or 5 player OF group going into the season. I was definitely concerned about Kepler being part of a 2 person OF group who didn't have to check the lineup card to see if they were on it. RF simply wasn't locked up in my opinion. Fast forward to today on May 26th, 2022. I love how Kep is going the other way more often this year. His performance has been much better and I hope it continues. My concerns about him have lessened and I believe he is earning playing time. However, I'm still not ready to give him must play every day status but that is status I only grant to the elite players anyway. Kep's numbers are still not good enough to throw away any of Larnach, Celestino and Garlick by restricting their opportunity. They are all earning the right to compete. It's a great problem to have and proof that you can have a 26 man roster full of players who can all play. There is never a reason to go down with the ship with any struggling player. You can feed multiple players effectively.
  9. OK... I'll bite. Let's say we trade Correa to the Yankees at the deadline. What's the guess on what we get back?
  10. In extreme conditions... Furlongs are necessary for the survival of certain species.
  11. Kyle Garlick was drafted in the 28th round by the Dodgers in 2015 after he set the single season home run record at Cal Poly Pomona. He never showed up in the top prospect rankings (28th round picks rarely do) but he worked his way up the Dodger farm system anyway by hitting right handers and left handers. In 2019 with AAA Oklahoma City while also taking occasional cups of coffee with the Dodgers when they needed a body. Kyle hit 23 Home Runs in 81 games at AAA with a BA of .314. Outfielders also on the roster with the Dodgers in 2019 were names like Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, AJ Pollack, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez so playing time was going to be hard to find. The Dodgers are also a platoon inclined orientation. Joc Pederson was someone for example that they didn't want facing left handers (49 AB's against lefties in 2019). Garlick became the guy who could take those AB's away when he was in town and he was limited to facing left handers despite no indication that he needed to be platooned in the minor leagues. In just 48 AB's... Garlick did pretty good. 3 Jacks with an OPS+ of 117. In 2020 the Dodgers added Mookie Betts to the OF options making it even harder for Garlick to crack an already loaded roster and he was also out of options so understandably he was designated for assignment. 5 days later the Phillies traded for him and gave him a roster spot. During the Covid Year... he had 23 AB's total and those 23 AB's were not good. The Phillies DFA'd him on January 18, 2021... The Braves claimed him off waivers 4 days later and DFA'd him before spring training on February 5, 2022. 6 Days later the Twins claimed him off waivers. We've all seen him since then. All of this is important when trying to decide just who Kyle Garlick is. How can anyone know? He hit the ball hard in the minors against left and right handers in an organization that was stacked to the brim with talented OF'ers. The Dodgers made him a short side platoon when he got his limited chances along side lots of talent who also want AB's. The Phillies didn't do anything with him during Covid 2020 and the Twins have continued the short side platoon started briefly by the Dodgers in 2019. He sure looks like he can hit. I just wonder if he has gotten a fair shot to grab something with both hands.
  12. Pinch somewhere else
  13. 1. When trying to assess the "overwhelming" "return haul of prospects". You have to factor in his contract. It's not a club option... it is his. This clouds his value between rental and 2 more years of control which is a huge factor in what you can get in return in a trade. Plus consider the very nature of free agency. The majority of free agent signings go to the highest bidder which means a price point that is more than the other 29 teams are willing to spend and this consideration will bring his trade value down to almost nothing unless the Twins kick in significant money to offset. Granted the Twins will have paid off a good chunk of the money for this year by the trade deadline but not many clubs are willing to pay what is left over for just two months. 16 Million or so. In short... I'm not sure that the return would be overwhelming. 2. If we win the division... We are Contenders until someone knocks us out. If we win the division... we will probably makes some additions at the deadline... not subtractions. If I ever felt for a second that the front office looked at a division leading team and said... Nope... not contenders. I'd want them fired immediately due to debilitating Hubris. 3. I like the idea of Lewis and Correa working together on the same team. It doesn't have to be one or the other. 4. I believe future free agents will sign with clubs that provide opportunity to win and the best money. Trading a free agent at the deadline won't sway them in the future. Trading a superstar from a contender might.
  14. The Florida Panthers were a pretty good hockey team this year. ? Are the Twins for real? Pinch yourself... If you don't wake up from a dream. They are real.
  15. Good Teams average 6 wins every 10 games. 6*16=96 (160 games) Average Teams average 5 wins every 10 games. 5*16=80 Bad Teams average 4 wins every 10 games. 4*16=64 Every 10 games there is variance from these averages for all teams regardless if they are a good, average or bad team. There will be 10 games stretches where bad teams will win 7 games or more and there will be 10 game stretches where good teams will lose 7 games or more. The Ranges above are very consistent year over year. I mention all of this to point out that there is no such thing as cushy competition. Bad teams will beat you but I'm reading a lot of posts taking the Royals and Tigers for granted while talking about this stretch of games being time to make hay. If anybody has the ability to predict when these stretches will happen. Stop following baseball and invest in the stock market instead. ? 10 game intervals were chosen by me for example purposes and simple math.
  16. Just want to point out that the "quarter pole" is not the first quarter... It's the last quarter of the race. Carry On Everyone! We got lots of race left.
  17. You were not the only one who said that Miranda would be replaced by Larnach soon so my comment wasn't directed at anybody specifically. It was simply an affirmation of how I interpreted Otto's implication which I agreed with. It's hard to predict injuries but easy to predict that they will happen. It isn't a surprise to me that Miranda is still here. (Good Game props to Jose on Friday BTW). It's why there needs to be a pecking order for who goes down and it should be based on performance. I'm not upset by it either. Lewis is a phone call away. It doesn't mean automatic losses. It doesn't mean that Lewis is ruined. It doesn't mean that the lightbulb with Miranda won't turn on brightly tomorrow. It's the thought process that shakes me. Any decision made by a room full of people that concludes (in consideration of actual on the field performance) with Miranda staying up and Lewis going down is concerning to me. There is major league successful precedent... including on the Twins that the minors are not necessary to accomplish what they need to accomplish. I believe the front office when they say that Lewis is going down for multi-position training because that is what is happening in St. Paul. Regardless, I still support the front office. They are doing what they said they would do. I'd still like to make fun of them for it.
  18. Ah... I've been labelled. Well... I didn't intend to be a problem poster. Seems that I am.
  19. Others to the IL was pretty much it. There was opinion expressed that Miranda staying up over Lewis didn't matter because Miranda was going down soon due to the imminent return of Larnach. Question for the moderator. Are Otto and I guilty of "trolling" by pointing this out?
  20. Lookie there. Larnach up... Miranda still up.
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