I do think run differential is important to look at for determining whether a team's record is over or underperforming. Obviously, it isn't the only thing, but go to ESPN or any other site that lists the run differential along with the standings and scroll back historically and it is plainly clear that *in general*, teams with large positive differentials are better, year in and year out. That's not to say that a team with a near-zero or negative differential can't compete, but it is the exception. DPJ chooses to call it luck and that's as accurate as a terminology as any. Call it magic or lightning in a bottle or chemistry or whatever...but it's the exception, and as mike wants win states, he doesn't want hope to be the plan going forward. That said, Nick clearly didn't mean to suggest hope was the path to take, if not in his original post then at least in his follow up responses. Interesting teams you mentioned there as many have strong similarities: most changed managers shortly before their hope-cited seasons. Team, New Manager, Year Manager took over 2012 Orioles, Showalter, 2011 2012 Pirates, Hurdle, 2011 2011 DBacks, Gibson, Mid-Year 2010 2010 Padres, Black, 2007 2009 Rockies, Tracy, Mid-Year 2009 after 46 games (18-28) 2008 Astros, Cooper, Mid-Year 2007 2007 Indians, Wedge, 2002 So of the 7 teams cited - and I'm presuming those were off the top of your head, 5 of them replaced their manager either in the season of hope or in the year before. Sometimes, a new voice can get players to perform better than the old voice. That's not saying that the managers they replaced weren't good. New 2009 Rockies voice Jim Tracy, for example, replaced old voice Clint Hurdle - who later became the new voice for the Pirates. I'm not suggesting that a change at manager absolutely turns the team around; just saying that when teams turn around after struggles, sometimes it is easier to do with a different leader. Finally, I totally agree. I'd feel much luckier with improved pitching. Diamond is not a #1 guy in 2012, nor Deduno, nor DeVries, nor Hendricks, and none of them figure to be in 2013. Pavano is not a #1 guy. A healthy Baker is not a #1 guy. If league average pitching is what is needed, the team needs a #1 and a #2 to go with the #3 (maybe Diamond), #4s, and #5s (the rest) that we have. Good post...I agree with your point about run differential but only because it's stands to reason. If you are winning more than you are losing it stands to reason that you are scoring more runs than you are giving up. It wouldn't be surprising if teams with the better records have better run differential... It should be expected. I expect to see that in side by side comparisons. However... A negative run differential and a winning record doesn't mean a team is lucky. It simply suggests that they have lost big on occasion and won a bunch of close games. If I see a team winning a bunch of close games. I see a team playing baseball. If I was an Oriole and someone was writing me off as lucky with the good vibe they have going. I'd have Jim Thome pick up Brian Roberts by the ankles and strike you with him. They did it again today. 3 to 2 in extra innings over Tampa. Tip your cap to them. Don't diminish it with the comment of luck. Key hits, moving runners over, Big pitches, bullpen picking up the starters, Big catches, exgressive base running, smart plays in the field isnt luck. Its baseball being played the right way. They don't deserve being called lucky. Calling them lucky is bad form. As for changing managers. I like Gardy and think he's a good manager. I'd help build a statue in front of Target field but I do think a change in leadership would be a good thing. Good for Gardy and good for the Twins. Gardy can take over the Blue Jays next year and do great things. (They have lots of catchers in the Jays organization). The Twins could have a fresh voice because I believe inspiration is important even if it primarily comes from the players themselves. At least I believe it's the job of the players to inspire each other. Speaking of inspiration. I believe that is correct word to use. The Orioles are inspired right now. Not lucky... Inspired!!! If you are inspired... You work hard... If you work hard... You create some luck. Your list of managers is interesting. I hadn't really thought about that. One explanation is that teams change managers frequently. There are only a couple of managers who have stayed with the same club for a long long time. For a team to come out of nowhere they had to be nowhere. Not many managers survive nowhere. Gardy could be the exception. Decent pitching is the the great equalizer. Pitching can keep you in games and when you are in a game... The guy hitting .180 can drop a game winner in... Please Terry Ryan... Whatever it takes... Brings us some arms next year and defense to support that pitching. At gunpoint if you have to.