Riverbrian

One last thing... Twins RF held percentage... 47.5% League Average... 45.4 Can we at least agree that Ben played the majority of RF. if not... Ben Revere 51.5% held in RF and 41.4% in CF. The on base percentage slugging or OPS argument or concern is at least legit.

lol... At my age... There are lots of kids out there... Some of them kids are running Fortune 500 companies.

Dude yes the other teams were having a "field party" or whatever sending guys from 1st to third. His arm is terrible as far as baseball is concerned, it's actually borderline embarrassing watching at times how bad it is. That doesn't take away the fact that he has elite range and the ability to play a really strong CF, but to claim his arm isn't one of the worst of any OF in baseball is just flat out wrong. Luckily it will be masked a bit in CF, but still the weakness still remains. Never claimed that... Never said it was the worst... But I never claimed it wasnt... I actually started with the words... "His arm is weak... No doubt". Not sure how that read differently. I do claim that Runners were not having a field party. I saw bad throws... I did... His arm is not good... it will be the difference in a run or base on occasion... but it wasn't a field party or whatever... The impression being left is that hes personally responsible for all or most extra bases. I've seen runners run on Francour. Runners go to third base based on where the ball is in relation to the fielder more often then they go on the guy holding the ball. If a runner goes from first to third... It is possible They were going with Parmelee, Span or Doumit in the same situation. Not all situations cuz his arm isn't that good... I get that.

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing. Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement? His arm is weak... No doubt... But I seriously don't know what you guys saw... I watched the majority of games... There were times when the runner went first to third with Revere in RF... And in my opinion... Moments where they may not have attempted that on Francour... But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't... Its the type of statement you make when you know someone has a weak arm but they were not running wild and that is the impression you are leaving. And let's be honest on the other side... He gets to the ball quicker and gets it in quicker... I don't care if a 4th grader is holding the ball in RF... If the ball is in his glove and the runner hasn't rounded second... He ain't going... Serious embellishment going on here... His arm is weak... Got it... No argument... It will cost the Twins a run on occasion... No doubt... He doesn't have the Harper Hose... The problem with these discussions as Puck pointed out. Is that it makes people draw lines in the sand... The pro Revere crowd like me end up losing our objectivity because we end up defending him... the anti or non Revere crowd end up disliking him more and yeah... I think they lose objectivity as well.. I don't want to shove Revere down anyone's throat... I shouldnt have to... hes done well... And Im trying to stop... But c'mon... He gave it and I assume he will continue to give it... He was a first round draft pick and he was a 3rd round projection. No organization is going to reach into the 1st round unless he's knocking the ball around the park... And no team is going to reach for a pick unless they see something and think another squad saw something as well... That is why they reach... To get your guy... If Revere was showing no arm and No power he ain't going in the first round. Can we agree on that... I know some people think Terry Ryan and the front office are idiots... They are not that big of idiots... They are not taking a light hitting fast guy projected in the third round in the first... Jerrod Dyson went in the 50th round... That's where the fast guys who can't hit go... 50th round. Was it a first round mistake? If you look back at 2007... There only a few of that class in the majors right now so I'd say no... With hindsight you could claim Frazier... d'Arnaud or Luebke may have been better choices in that slot... But with that same hindsight... 11 teams that drafted before the Twins did... they would be loving Revere instead of the guy they got. You are also looking at a kid... 1st round pick who was not stalled in the minors for a second... Rookie... A... High A... AA... Majors... Advanced like clockwork... He hasn't failed yet... At any level... including the majors... Whatever is thought to be wrong with him by some on this board... It didn't hold him back for a second cuz... here he is. I,m not sure what measuring stick you are using... But a 1st round pick who advanced thru the farm with no stalling has to have value. So I'm pretty confident we have some undervaluing going on but it's clear that opinions are not going to change... So I'm really gonna try to stop now... But Like the Godfather III... Someone is gonna pull me back in. If people talking him up is bugging you... Even if its embellished... Cheer for a different team please... Talking up White Sox players bugs me... I'm a Twins Fan and Revere is good baseball and he's a Twin... Talk him up all you want. And I would not extend him at this time.

I hate the Yankees... More injuries for them would be Ok with me... And a Pox on the White Sox while Im at it.

Call me crazy but I think spending 115 million this year would be stupid. As for Dempster... I'd be happy if Terry Ryan identified one guy... One guy who makes sense for at least 3 years or more and go get him. I don't care what they pay him... I care if they land him. If TR thinks Dempster is that guy... It wouldn't be my choice but Ok... One guy... And then bargain shop with some prove it deals. One guy who could be on the roster when Meyer hits town. If he signed for a price that makes Vodkadave throw up... I don't care. Pick the guy you like best and get him. Did I mention... I don't think that guy is Dempster.

I think certain players have a green light against pitchers that are timing slow. The players then go when they get a decent lead and feel for pitcher. Dee Gordon would be like Revere... Green light to go until he gets nailed more often than preferable. I love Speed... I'm all for it with the hope that we don't gut our future to get him.

I didn't think of that.

I'm not sure if I want him either but we do need arms and if other teams are going after him. I was just kinda thinking... This must mean that Terry has no interest or thought he could be signed cheaper through FA.

I have daily sheets that I have to fill out in my job... I have a cup holder with pens to my left and I have pens of different colors... About a Month ago... I selected a Green Pen for a Saturday because North Dakota was playing Football that day and I selected a Purple Pen on Sunday because the Vikings were playing. Both teams lost so I figured that I had the Pen strategy backwards. So the next week I decided to specificallly not use Purple on Vikings gameday. The Vikes did win that week when I avoided Purple and I have stayed with that strategy but it hasn't been consistent. I have come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter what pen I use as long Ponder is at QB.

Rumors are just rumors but there are a few teams being reported as John Lannan Suitors. Since Washington just let him go. Can anyone think of a reason that Lannan wasn't someone that could have been included in the deal. I think it's quite possible that a throw in in the Span/Meyer trade wasn't a consideration because I assume that Washington came up to Terry Ryan's price with Meyer. So someone like Lombardozzi was an impossible consideration. But... Since Washington was just letting Lannan go. I fail to see a reason why Lannan couldn't have been thrown in. That way the Twins could have grabbed him and not had to go thru the FA process. It was an Arb year correct? Did Terry Ryan not like Lannan or the assumed arbitration price? Any Guesses?

I think this is an article about counts and impact on runs http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/12/506919/a-nibble-here-a-nibble-the Thanks Jorganswest... I will read through it when I get some time. I'm definitely curious but it does look to be a little time consuming to comb thru it unless I just take it at face value. No matter my first blush opinion... Keep posting this stuff... It is very interesting. The Game has changed so much over the decades and metrics are at the forefront of that change.

Another thing to add from an umpire perspective. When I can see a glove... The Movement of a glove in an attempt to frame after the catch could be seen by the ump as the catcher believing that it was a ball. If the pitch is a strike. A good Catcher will catch and hold it in position. If it's a ball... They will attempt to frame by moving it. If the Ump has any doubt. The actual framing movement from the catcher is a tip that it was a ball.

I have always believed that Catchers have huge influence on games in ways that are hard to quantify. Things like the calling of pitches, framing to a lesser extent, Quarterbacking the Defense. I don't know enough of this data and the conclusions drawn from it but a couple of incomplete thoughts jump to mind right away. A. The Run differential seems excessive. If you see something this excessive. It's probably a red flag just like Brock said. If the data and result was solid. Molina would be negotiating for a fairly large contract right now because there are enough teams that follow metrics and look for edges like this especially something this large. B. I haven't read all of it and it looks like it will take awhile to get through it all but I'm wondering how a called strike can be quantified into Runs. The Difference between a 2-0 count and a 1-1 count is important but how do you quantify the rest of the at bat and the result based upon one strike or ball. C. I've done a little umping behind the plate. Some Parents and Coaches say I suck at it and I probably do... I know that proper technique for umpires is to watch the ball from Pitchers Hand to Catchers Glove and that's easy enough understood as it's written. However, Catchers don't always sit still behind the plate. They move around and the Glove ends up being be blocked from view by the catcher a large percentage of times. Even if they sit still they block the view of the glove. The Ump is positioned behind the Catcher and for that reason it is very difficult to see the glove and if you can't see the glove consistently. It's very difficult to be influenced by framing. If you look at the Video examples of Lucroy and Veritek shown in the example. It looks to me that the Umpires would struggle to see the glove but who knows cuz MLB umps are the best of the best. Maybe they can and I just haven't figured out how to position myself properly. All in all... I'm a little skeptical.

We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never... Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.

I'm going to try and ignore that one. Cuz There are more important things in life. Carry on

Why will his walk rate improve? It was never very good in the minors. He might draw an extra walk or two but there's no reason to think it will ever be significant. And how is extending him not taking a big risk? Was Nick Blackburn not a risk? Are the Twins so flush with cash that they didn't need the $5m paid to Nick in 2012? Seems to me that the $11m wasted on Blackburn in 2012/13 could have been used to pay someone who wouldn't help the team to consecutive "worst pitching staff in the AL" awards. I can only offer my theory with no proof. A. He's a free swinger and he was a superstar in High School in Kentucky. The Twins Would not have reached for him in the first round if he wasn't knocking the ball around the park and out while flying around the bases. He hit 28 dingers in High School. I don't believe the Twins Scouts, Cross Checkers, Directors and GM said... Lets reach for this guy with no arm and no power. He would have been available much later with no arm and no power. He was most likely showing something else in High School. And A High School Coach is not going to want him to stop swinging when he's your superstar and he's knocking the ball around the park. B. he's still Young... Breaking Habits are hard and he still hasn't failed yet as a free swinger. C. The Wood Bat... Ben isn't a power hitter no matter how many times he cleared the fence in high school. Since the Dawn of baseball... Coaches consistently take kids with the kinda of speed that Ben and the power that Ben has to use their legs. Ben has taken to that pretty good... Maybe too much. D. He's the son of a coach... Football coach but a coach none the less. I think it's quite possible that Ben will spend the Winter with Plate discipline as a goal of improvement. Span is gone now... Ben knows that makes him Mr Lead Off candidate. I'm sure he knows what that means and I'm sure his coaches are saying the same thing and Im sure his dad understands it as well. E. You may be right... He may be the same type of guy who doesn't draw enough free passes 4 years from now. I still think its very possible that he gets better with experience. Oh yeah"" one more... F... He's really short... Think Eddie Guedel.

I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But: Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B Duda -2 LF -16 RF Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF Plus Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011 I consider the above examples grains of salt. Are those career numbers? I would think there are serious sample size issues if those are split positions in a single season. Below is a study about reliability and correlation. Using a minimum of 667 innings, this even/odd year study produced a high positive correlation of .59. http://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ Are the Twins paying attention? I hope so. They are just 2012... And in some cases listed... Sample Size would be an issue. Not all cases tho and I think they are legit questions. Again... I'm not slamming the stats. Just pointing out one reason for caution. when it comes to the Bill James article... I think Bill James is the man... I won't criticize him.... But I think it should be considered that 66% of all batted balls are outs. That in itself will stabilize the numbers and should cut down on swings in data. in other words,.. I'd hope the study the Bill did would show consistency in data to that degree. The Devil in my mind will be in the little details.

I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise... But I don't like comparing players directly because its nearly impossible to compare players like its hard to compare snowflakes. If OPS is your main point. Ben Revere OPS .619 in first full year at age 23 Michael Bourn OPS .588 in his first full year at age 25 But again... Bourn has the benefit of time to become what he has become. And again... I do not think we should extend Ben at this time. But I would like to say that "Extend Ben" Rhymes. I know you don't hate Ben... We just disagree on his value. That probably won't change unless Revere actually changes it with frying pans over either of our heads.

I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But: Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B Duda -2 LF -16 RF Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF Plus Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011 I consider the above examples grains of salt.

I won't try to put a number on it... I'm more concerned with the timing and game situations when outfield range would come into play. One bad moment can lead to runs and a lot of runs at the wrong time. When you are trying to instill confidence in young pitchers and confidence in your team. Defense is a huge thing in my mind. I think OF Defense for our squad has been weakened to start the season but I do expect Hicks or even Hicks/Arcia to arrive after the Arb Clock thing and it will be better later. I believe eventually Willingham will be the primary DH. Maybe as soon as July.

I don't really like comparing anyone to anyone but I used Bourn as an example just to point out the potential undervalue taking place with Ben by some. In that sense it's not too soon to compare him to Bourn since Bourn has had more seasons to become(.700 plus OPS) what he became and he didn't get there right away. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Revere has accomplished more than Bourn did at age 24 and we are talking similiar skill sets. I do agree with you that it is simply too soon to lock up Revere and it's exactly because of the reasons that you give. If Revere has a nice 2013... I think you can start to think about it. Just not yet... I like him but I am trying to be reasonable when it comes to future projection. Anything can happen but so far he's been good baseball.

When I saw the trade announced... I remembered Meyer ranked high on Prospect lists but I didn't recall any details about him and his ranking. I just thought I remembered him and was pretty sure he was highly ranked. The name rung a big bell and I was excited. I thought to myself. Interesting... I think they got someone. I then jumped on the computer and immediately went to his stats... I saw he was over a strikeout an inning. ERA below 3.00 I thought to myself... Looks Good. Than I noticed one year in A Ball. I thought to myself... Shoot!!! only A ball... I was seriously hoping for closer to MLB ready... I felt a little concerned. Than I noticed his age... 22 and one year in A ball. I thought to myself... College Kid... That explains it. He could move up quick. Than I read the scouting reports... Most reports are projecting top of the rotation. Upper 90's fastball and big time slider. He turned down 2 million to pitch in College and got 2 million again to sign after so he got his 2 million anyway. I thought to myself... Multiple teams were willing to spend to sign this guy... Alright... Let's pray for health! I think Terry has done good! Can't wait to see him for myself. I haven't seen him pitch yet... Based on what I've read and my trust in our Front Office. I think we got a good deal! I'm happy.

I believe that Terry Ryan took what he felt was the best deal for Span. I don't believe that he settled for what he felt was the 3rd best offer. If the Twins could have gotten more for Span... I believe that he would have gotten more for Span and the actual trade made would reflect that.

30 different (hopefully active) members of Twins Daily can each grab a team to make off season decisions for. Plus 1 Grand Poo-Bah from the site can act as Commissioner (important role). The Role of Commissioner would be to decide which bid gets each Free Agent and make occasional trade judgements(rule/overrule) over trades in consideration of historical budget constraints for each club. In short... What is reasonable... Within Reason with the consideration that sometime unreasonable things do occur in baseball. On the Thread... Each Member/Team GM can make offers to free agents they want with consideration of historical or reasonable budget and market size. Trades can be proposed to other GM's either publicly or privately by message. In short... Just build and refine your pretend assigned team and work with or against the other owners to change your teams to your liking. Could this be done... Any Interest? The Commissioner role would be a very important job keeping things reasonable. If so... I would like to get the ball rolling and claim the Twins... But Since a majority would probably like to manage the Twins on this site... I will consider claiming the Red Sox instead. Any Interest? Brock, John, Seth... What do you think?