LaBombo

What's the replay overturn rate in MLB? One percent? Less? Whatever it is, the rate of reversal in favor of poor plays like sending Grossman home has got to be less than half what it is for 'smart' plays. In other words, the replay guys either unconsciously or deliberately despise rewarding fundamentally poor baseball no matter what the replay shows.

Not only does the idea of a good trade for a starting pitcher not bother me at all, it now seems almost unavoidable to me if the Twins want to field a competitive rotation in 2018. But my concern is that a trade made at the deadline will come with the kind of high cost and limited selection that you usually expect from multiple trades that happen during a short timeframe in a seller's market. Trading away significantly more assets or settling for less of a pitcher than in an otherwise comparable offseason deal in order to 'get someone now' to help contend seems to me like it could be a step backward in the Twins' effort to play postseason baseball, even if that pitcher were signed through 2018. As for run differential, it looks like its predictive value at any given point in a season depends on who you believe. It seems like the majority of the BProp/Fangraphs/etc stuff tends to lean towards 70 games or so as a tipping point at which run differential becomes a good predictive tool for the W/L performance of a team over the rest of the season. At 90 games it takes a lot to break free of the wins & losses trajectory that previous run differential has put a team on for the rest of the way. On the other hand, if FalLeviney are smarter than run differential about the Twins' competitiveness the rest of the way and can get a '2018 or beyond' guy that they really like, before the deadline and without overpaying significantly for the last two months of his 2017, well, have at it, boys, and let's go kick some third order win percentage butt!

Look at the bright side. As often as I'm wrong about the Twins, about baseball in general, and frankly about everything else in life as well, I'm probably reverse-jinxing the Twins right into the postseason by predicting they won't/can't make the kind of trades required to have a shot at contention.

I get it, we don't want a continuous rebuilding project, and anything can happen in the playoffs. In theory. And a guy like Neshek shouldn't cost us a guy like Gordon. But the thing is, you can't trade for just Neshek. You absolutely need to also go get a 3-ish starting pitcher to be relevant in the American League in September. And that will most definitely cost you a Nick Gordon or the like. If the Twins had fought their opponents so far this season to a draw in run differential, it might be easier for me to fathom the Twins converting their minor league talent 'surplus' (*shudder*) into MLB pitching with the idea that it would make them a serious contender. As it stands, I've seen a Twins team that's been much more fun to watch than I expected, and yet not really much better than I expected. And what I expected was a team clearly improved from what it was last year, but just as clearly not ready to contend. That's still how they look to me, despite the W/L record.

Love Neshek. But if the Twins burn a prospect on a two month reliever rental in an effort to reach the coin flip game with a team that currently ranks second from the bottom of the A.L in third order win percentage, then my 'let's give it a couple of years' phase of the FaLeveyine era will end instantly, because I'll know pretty much everything I need to about their odds of bringing meaningful success to the Twins.

So will the guys who pitch for the Winnipeg Goldeyes, when they hit the bars after the game and then Tim Horton's drive thru on the way home.

Or maybe a guy whose idea of 'Mixed martial arts' is a judo exhibition in a go-go club. http://www.retrocinema.wetcircuit.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/OurManFlint-dancing3.jpg

30 minutes or so ago I got into the car with my elementary-aged daughter and turned on the game. The radio broadcast was in a commercial break, but the station display crawl said TWINS - 4 ASTROS - 1. Then Provus came on sounding encouraged that the Twins had mounted a comeback, which made no sense, and then said that they trailed 10 - 4. Me: "Ten to four !?! The crawl said they were up four to one!" Kid: "No, after you looked outside it showed a zero after the one for the Astros. Our radio isn't big enough to show how bad they're getting beat." Me: "Why didn't you tell me when you saw it?" Kid: "You seemed pretty excited that they were ahead".

Because even despite the FIP/ERA disparity Santana is the best starting pitcher you can afford to trade for at the deadline?

... but not the savior it deserves. http://minifigpriceguide.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Lego-Batman-Movie-Minifigures-22.jpg

At this point it's almost a relief to see him be put on the shelf, because if what we'd been seeing had been Santiago physically at the top of his game... bummer. I'm hoping for 'anyone but Gee' to get the call as well. But even he would be a major upgrade over Santiago if he can just reproduce his 2016 mediocrity.

The Twins were one of the three worst teams in baseball last year, and one of the worst to be fielded by the organization in its post-Senators history. They were outscored by their opponents the season before that. That doesn't sound like much momentum to base the preservation of a contending roster on. The phrase "has issues" seems to fall a bit short of describing the struggles of a bullpen that ranks 2nd-worst in the AL in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR, with a league low strikeout rate thrown in for good measure. With Santana pitching down to the level of his peripherals for the past month, the rotation, which also ranks near the bottom of the AL, has only one starter in whom the team should have any real confidence to have a strong second half. And while it's been extremely fun to watch the Twins play competitive baseball this season, they've been massively outscored again by their opponents, and play in a division currently led by the defending league champs. Like you, I'm hoping the Twins bring up some of their younger pitchers if they're ready. But if they contribute enough to help push the Twins toward legitimate contender status, it'll just be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned.

It's certainly possible that he's hitting the ball harder, and I don't mean that his numbers are entirely the result of good fortune. It's just that when a player of his age and history suddenly starts getting two hits on every five balls in play, there's cause for curiosity about how much is real improvement and how much is mirage. I'm hoping the Twins focus on building a competitive team rather than on fielding a lineup every day that's optimized for the wildcard hunt. I'm hoping Granite can with the former more than the latter. It's just unfortunate that he's not a more natural fit with what the Twins have on their roster at the moment.

Good writeup and thorough analysis of how the Twins could move pieces around to utilize Granite. But if you subtract the 100 points he's exceeding his career babip by, Granite is a .270/.320/.410 AAA lefty bat whose real assets are his speed and defense. Not sure that's the boost that an outfield which already features two lefties, speed, and defense really needs.

Jack Morris just referred to the sac bunt as a "lost art", but poor bunting technique has always been a problem, dating back to the time of this ancient Aztec art depicting angry teammates using the bat to punish a hitter for a sacrifice gone wrong.

Col. H. Landa likes this.

http://i1.wp.com/sb2w.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Dallabove.jpg?resize=660%2C249

If Sano is going to keep taking cuts like that at 98 mph heat, he really ought to ride a blue ox from the dugout to the plate. http://idata.over-blog.com/3/19/61/62//vlcsnap-817598.png

Also, the Twins lead the American League in xRuLoBu, or expected runs lost to bunting.

Thanks to just the three Rosario catches the Twins pitchers' ERA is about 3-4 runs lower than their FIP tonight.

And I think TR is still on the payroll, listed as Senior Fellow of Non-Analytics.

http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/736x/3f/04/6f/3f046fdb06516c928049a69c8e8d1784.jpg

Awesome. From now on, I'm going to refer to the Twins' 3-4-5 starters as Duff, Duff Light, and Duff Dry.

Even though they're saying it right, when I hear DB & Co. say that Belisle is warming up, in my head I hear "Belle Isle", the rundown southern mansion in Fletch 2. http://cdn.metacafe.com/contents/videos_screenshots/7722000/7722508/preview.jpg

You spelled "engaging" wrong!